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Russian
00:00:00
Igor I greet you, good afternoon00:00:02
Hello, in 2 days, attacks by Ukrainian00:00:05
drones paralyzed 1200:00:09
oil refining facilities of00:00:10
the Russian Federation. According to the00:00:12
Lumberberg publication, attacks on oil facilities00:00:14
are also aimed at interrupting Russian exports00:00:17
and fuel supplies for the Russian army00:00:20
on the front line. And Igor Let’s talk in detail00:00:23
about what What kind of00:00:25
compromises will the authorities have or will be00:00:28
forced to make, given that,00:00:31
apparently, the supply of gasoline is now00:00:34
limited in certain parts of00:00:36
the Russian Federation, and to what extent is00:00:40
12% of the00:00:41
paralysis of oil refining in general00:00:45
now hitting the Russian economy? Well,00:00:50
if you look, it means00:00:51
the government has already introduced restriction on the00:00:53
export of gasoline This means that the00:00:55
government is really ready00:00:57
to sacrifice part of the foreign exchange earnings from00:01:00
exports, but it is necessary to somehow ensure the00:01:02
supply of fuel for the military and00:01:04
for agriculture. So this is already00:01:06
quite a painful topic, which means00:01:09
problems begin with energy supply00:01:11
because, accordingly, the army00:01:14
will provide the agricultural complex will provide00:01:17
private transport and00:01:19
commercial transport will apparently encounter00:01:21
problems, and this in general00:01:23
means that completely00:01:25
unexpected stories can arise when there are products in the00:01:27
warehouse for production00:01:30
before And in the Roch stores it is impossible to bring in products00:01:33
because it is impossible to refuel00:01:35
some kind of transport Absolutely00:01:36
incredible stories But this is perhaps00:01:38
the main thing that the summer is ahead and in the summer in00:01:41
Russia oil refineries are usually00:01:43
stopped for scheduled repairs00:01:45
and now a situation arises: it is unclear00:01:47
whether they can be stopped for planned00:01:49
repairs or whether they cannot be stopped for00:01:51
planned repairs, which means they may have00:01:53
accidents in the winter then there will be problems in the winter,00:01:56
stopping for planned repairs means 12%00:02:00
losses, which are currently being recorded,00:02:02
which means another disadvantage will be added due to the00:02:04
fact that factories have stopped for planned00:02:06
repairs. Well, that is, the situation could00:02:08
become very unpleasant;00:02:10
queues at gas stations may arise again;00:02:12
fuel prices may begin to rise and00:02:15
gasoline for diesel fuel, that is, the consequences are00:02:17
still difficult to predict; this is a force majeure00:02:19
situation for the Russian economy.00:02:21
Therefore, everything cannot be fully assessed yet.00:02:24
But of course, for the Russian00:02:26
economy, it is difficult to carry out repairs00:02:31
and in terms of time, how long it can00:02:33
take and in the monetary aspect How It’s expensive00:02:36
in general, well, it’s hard to say, I’m not00:02:39
such a big specialist in00:02:42
oil refining technologies, which means Russian00:02:43
export experts say that some of the00:02:46
units that are damaged are extremely00:02:48
expensive. The main thing is that they were once00:02:50
built with the participation of foreign00:02:52
specialists using foreign00:02:54
equipment, which is now00:02:56
extremely difficult. there is even if there00:02:58
is money, then it00:03:01
will be difficult to carry out the replacement procedure, the repair procedure, the starting procedure,00:03:03
so the situation here is so00:03:06
ambiguous that I don’t presume00:03:08
to predict, but it is clear that this is both expensive and00:03:10
difficult, and it is clear that this, of course,00:03:12
upsets the balance of fuel on the Russian00:03:14
fuel market, which has already been quite serious the00:03:17
first feat, prices00:03:19
have moved up a little on the stock market, but00:03:22
so far not much 1% no one understands00:03:25
it’s sad, but in the coming days00:03:27
the picture00:03:28
will become clearer, here’s information from the00:03:33
Baltic countries, it’s no longer politically correct00:03:35
to say the Baltic countries, you know, an00:03:36
old bad habit, the Baltic countries are00:03:39
preparing to lower the iron curtain00:03:41
on the border with Russia and00:03:44
Belarus seek to end any00:03:47
relationship with Russia and Belarus and00:03:49
lower the iron curtain, as stated by the00:03:51
Prime Minister of Latvia, Evika Seli, according to her,00:03:55
first of all, it is about00:03:56
ensuring economic and00:03:58
energy Independence from Russia at the00:04:00
same time achieving this Selini admitted that the goal was not so00:04:02
simple, and in response to00:04:06
Selini’s statement, the official00:04:08
representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova,00:04:10
doubted that the Baltic countries would have enough00:04:12
iron to erect a curtain on the border00:04:15
with Russia, or would they00:04:17
buy it from Russia? She wrote in a telegram. Will00:04:21
Igor grab it from them? iron and, in general,00:04:23
if we are now talking about economic00:04:26
energy Independence from Russia, I00:04:28
understand that, in principle, even ra00:04:30
Despite the fact that they are the closest among the European ones,00:04:32
I mean countries and NATO00:04:35
and EU members are with Russia,00:04:39
nevertheless, these countries have long been on I understand the path to00:04:42
this Independence correctly.00:04:45
Don’t really look at what00:04:48
the situation is here. On the one hand, all these countries are00:04:51
very afraid of Russia because they understand00:04:53
that Konevo and the Russian army’s elephants are00:04:57
too close after the population is too small,00:05:00
this is tea, not Ukraine, so to00:05:03
speak, one and a half times 2 nice00:05:05
person, so of course they, on the one00:05:08
hand, feel a threat on the other hand.00:05:10
Unfortunately for Ukraine, I must say00:05:11
that international statistics show00:05:13
that all three Baltic countries have very actively00:05:15
increased exports to the Russian Federation,00:05:18
the words are spoken alone and the exports are00:05:20
very large. So here you know, a double00:05:23
policy is being pursued This, unfortunately, is a00:05:25
reality that must be taken into account,00:05:27
so politicians say there00:05:29
how much this will actually be done, it’s still00:05:31
quite difficult to say, it’s clear that all00:05:33
three Baltic countries are not in a very easy00:05:35
economic situation, they need to00:05:37
earn money to maintain the00:05:38
well-being of the population, so in general00:05:40
they seem to be at the same level politically00:05:43
they hate Russia at the economic level, they are00:05:45
actively supplying goods there. And if we are00:05:49
talking now about exports, then what00:05:52
kind of exports are we talking about the World Cup? We are talking about00:05:56
anything and consumer goods, they even00:05:58
say that the goods are of value, that is,00:06:01
there is a publication on this subject by00:06:03
international experts who00:06:05
monitor foreign trade, they give figures for a00:06:07
fairly significant increase in00:06:09
supplies. Of all three countries and00:06:11
Estonia, Latvia is Lithuania, but in Lithuania to a00:06:13
lesser extent. But Estonia and Latvia are00:06:15
very strong and, apparently, if we have been00:06:23
talking for some time about the need for secondary00:06:26
sanctions against countries such as00:06:28
Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, the court and the Baltic00:06:30
countries may now fall under the same comb.00:06:32
If we are really talking about it, if00:06:35
the facts of00:06:37
exports are confirmed, well, dual-00:06:41
use products. Everything may be, in fact,00:06:44
they have already fallen under such sanctions;00:06:46
the history of very high-profile00:06:48
banking scandals is known let's say in Latvia00:06:51
when there were banks there that were00:06:53
engaged in generally rather strange00:06:54
transactions, the largest banks for Latvia00:06:57
closed them, like a bank in this sense, the00:07:00
Latvian economy was already lit up in00:07:02
this sense, they already have what is called a00:07:04
reputation that is not the most ideal. Therefore, yes,00:07:06
they can get in and we see that these00:07:08
sanctions are secondary, especially through the00:07:10
banking sector, they work quite powerfully,00:07:13
another thing is that the00:07:16
debugging of systems for bypassing banks begins first00:07:19
here, as you know, Turkish businessmen took the initiative,00:07:21
they proposed to00:07:23
the government to allow them to00:07:25
receive money in cash from00:07:27
Russians in suitcases and not even transfer it00:07:30
to their own accounts in Turkish banks So00:07:33
sanctions - This is a war and here each00:07:35
side develops its own tactics and Who00:07:38
wins at one moment the other at the00:07:40
other moment so here it is clear to say00:07:42
Here we have come up with everything forever, everything will be00:07:44
shut up forever, everything will be blocked forever, everything00:07:47
will no longer be supplied This is complex00:07:49
question, but we have to work, otherwise00:07:51
supplies will continue to go to Russia Igor00:07:53
And if we are talking now about the00:07:55
problem of these secondary sanctions,00:07:57
I have been hearing for several months now00:07:59
that Washington is ready to show00:08:02
political will and again00:08:04
introduce them into in relation to Kazakhstan and00:08:08
Kyrgyzstan, and we also heard that00:08:11
the Emirates are thinking about00:08:15
reducing the actual00:08:17
financial relations with the Russian00:08:20
Federation and the ability of Russians to00:08:22
use the Emirates Yes, as an00:08:24
alternative platform for00:08:27
financial exchanges. What is called that00:08:29
now you can understand what is happening on00:08:31
this front Does Washington have00:08:36
any success? We understand that in00:08:39
general some consequences are being observed and00:08:43
we see that exports from Turkey to00:08:45
Russia have already fallen by a third, that is, something00:08:47
is happening, the Turkish terminal refused to00:08:49
accept Russian oil. But the world is very00:08:52
complicated Peter I understand that the00:08:54
Ukrainians would like for everyone to00:08:56
do everything instantly to00:08:57
support them But the world and let’s say the Americans don’t00:09:01
really want to quarrel with, say,00:09:03
Kazakhstan because Kazakhstan is an00:09:05
alternative potential supplier of00:09:07
enriched Uranium to the USA If00:09:09
we refuse Russian Uranium, then00:09:11
where from? Uranium must be taken, and Kazakhstan is00:09:13
potentially one of the largest00:09:14
suppliers, although by the way, these00:09:17
companies now control the00:09:19
Russian Rosatom, so everything is very complicated in00:09:21
this world, but in any case, Kazakhstan00:09:22
is, in general, a supplier of Uranium, which means the00:09:25
countries of Central Asia are an area where00:09:27
the interests of China are captured interests of the United States00:09:30
Therefore, the United States does not want00:09:33
to quarrel with the republics of Central00:09:35
Asia at the same time so that they do not turn too much towards00:09:36
China. Well, the world is insanely00:09:47
intertwined for the United States;00:09:51
interaction with China is manifested in the neutralization00:09:53
of China, the creation of some kind of front of countries00:09:55
against China, than supporting Ukraine, this is a00:09:58
certain reality that must be00:10:00
taken into account.00:10:01
Well Moreover, literally today, since00:10:05
we are already talking about this, how Russia is now00:10:07
trying to00:10:08
reorient itself in the00:10:11
market of the so-called global south and00:10:13
not only the global south. What is the name of the00:10:15
south in the literal sense, and the New York00:10:17
Times today came out with an article where it00:10:20
says so. Here is the beginning of the article just00:10:22
let me quote for centuries,00:10:24
trade with Europe was the basis And00:10:26
excuse me, the main support of the00:10:27
Russian economy is the war in Ukraine this is so this is so00:10:30
Google Translate translates the war in00:10:32
Ukraine put an end to this as00:10:34
Western sanctions and other restrictions00:10:37
increasingly cut off Russia from European00:10:39
markets in response Moscow expanded ties with00:10:41
countries that are more willing to do00:10:44
business with it with China in the east also00:10:46
through the Southern route with India and the00:10:49
Persian Gulf countries, and in fact we are00:10:52
now talking00:10:54
about the00:10:58
Iran Railway connection through Iran and here00:11:03
I will now tell you 100 miles. That is, it00:11:05
turns out how much 150 km00:11:09
It will cost 1.7 billion dollars and will00:11:13
run through the00:11:15
territory of Iran to the Persian Gulf and00:11:20
thus it will create access to00:11:24
such routes as00:11:27
Mumbai, which is the capital of, let’s say,00:11:30
trading India, and so on, well,00:11:32
actually Russia is written here and00:11:35
gave Iran a loan to Iran in the amount of00:11:39
1.4 billion dollars to finance00:11:42
this project But what do you know about00:11:45
this project, in fact, this is not the first time00:11:47
they talked about it even before the war, but00:11:49
again the region is so extremely00:11:51
unsafe and Iran is constantly shaken by00:11:54
various kinds of revolutions00:11:56
recently or attempts, let's say attempts of00:12:00
the Revolution, Russia is always looking for some00:12:03
alternative routes, one of00:12:05
these ideas for a long time was even the Northern idea. If00:12:07
you know, across the Arctic Ocean00:12:10
along the Northern Sea Route there were beautiful00:12:12
ideas, nothing has worked out to this00:12:14
day. Now there are attempts to go to the south,00:12:17
but it’s difficult, again, as you understand,00:12:20
Russia, accordingly, does not00:12:23
border Iran. Directly, this means that by land,00:12:25
it must go through somewhere, apparently through Kazakhstan.00:12:27
So, it all depends, again, on00:12:29
how Kazakhstan will cooperate00:12:32
or not cooperate with Russia, what00:12:34
benefits will be offered to it00:12:35
alternatives from the USA and here00:12:38
everything is not very clear because in00:12:40
fact there is an attempt to build00:12:42
another alternative project, again00:12:44
through Arab countries, this is the so-called00:12:47
alternative project that goes from00:12:49
India to Europe through the countries of the Middle00:12:51
East through the Emirates, respectively,00:12:53
further through the Saudi Arabian00:12:55
Arabia, Israel and, accordingly, enters00:12:57
Europe. So there is competition, which00:12:59
of these projects will be more successful, we00:13:01
will see. But Russia is trying, of course,00:13:03
to break out, but the only question is that it is00:13:05
breaking out. Well, the region is a poor region, very00:13:08
large in population, extremely00:13:11
politically unstable, you are absolutely right with this00:13:13
and in general, not forming00:13:15
large markets Well, India and China, but00:13:18
two large players, no one will00:13:21
buy other Russian oil there,00:13:23
no one will buy Russian00:13:25
consumer goods there, no one needs00:13:27
that I will actually00:13:29
transport some kind of fuel materials along this branch -00:13:32
then oil products to the Middle East,00:13:34
you know, it’s a rather strange concept to00:13:36
transport oil products to the countries of the Middle00:13:38
East. Well, it’s clear that something can be built, maybe00:13:43
some military equipment from Israel can be brought along this road,00:13:45
but again, you know, if the United States00:13:47
lets it through the territory of Kazakhstan,00:13:50
yeah Igor just heard your recent00:13:52
interview, very fresh. Where did you say00:13:54
that when commenting on the Armed Forces,00:13:57
Russia’s greater dependence is economical? And not only00:13:59
China, given that China is now in an00:14:02
economic fever; China is not in a00:14:05
much better economic position00:14:07
than Russia; this may mean that both00:14:09
China and Russia, if there is a collapse of00:14:12
some kind in China that this will00:14:16
undoubtedly entail extremely00:14:18
negative consequences for Russia and its00:14:21
economy. Of course, you can say what we’ll say. For00:14:23
example, if you look at the structure of00:14:25
Russia’s national welfare fund,00:14:27
then 60% of the cost is gold, with which there are00:14:31
big problems. As you know, it’s under00:14:32
sanctions, so it can00:14:34
only be sold at a very large discount on the00:14:36
world market and the remaining 40% is00:14:39
Chinese yuan if it00:14:41
develops further, this crisis in00:14:42
China is developing and all the time00:14:45
some new facts appear, that’s00:14:47
really the last fact that00:14:48
Eight provinces of China are already bankrupt, they00:14:51
already have to pay more than what00:14:52
they earn in a year of all income, which means00:14:56
Therefore, of course, the situation there is not good and00:14:59
this means, for example, that China00:15:00
may well go for a significant devaluation of the00:15:03
yuan in order to reduce prices for its products00:15:05
in other countries and support exports. But00:15:07
then it will happen a very strong00:15:09
devaluation of the yuan in the00:15:11
national welfare fund of Russia,00:15:13
respectively, this money will also00:15:15
depreciate in Russia, by the way, already once00:15:17
lost money by investing00:15:19
about 2 billion dollars with the yuan, then00:15:21
the Central Bank lost Well, there is such a threat.00:15:23
And if it really happens, it won’t be00:15:25
easy some kind of financial problem, the00:15:28
Chinese economy will shake up really00:15:30
seriously, then unfortunate problems will begin in Russia00:15:32
because00:15:34
practically China is now the main00:15:36
source of both industrial resources,00:15:38
including equipment, and00:15:39
consumer goods, and accordingly,00:15:41
if any problems begin, then about00:15:44
simply the Russian market is instantly00:15:46
empty This is a very scary00:15:48
topic for Russia, regarding frozen00:15:51
Russian assets, we constantly00:15:53
talk about this at least a little, but it is00:15:57
always important to keep your finger on the00:16:00
pulse, taking this into account especially and00:16:04
the context, today the first such00:16:07
concrete positive signals from00:16:09
Washington have appeared in a long time in Ukrainian00:16:12
Pravda I read Speaker Johnson promised to00:16:14
unblock aid to Ukraine But with00:16:16
significant changes and all this00:16:19
is happening in the context of Trump’s policy,00:16:23
stop using America Yes,00:16:27
there is such a thing as a so-called freerider,00:16:29
including economic, pay for everything,00:16:32
even if you are a member of NATO, even if you Ukraine needs to be00:16:35
given Ukraine receives loans and not free of charge,00:16:39
this is how we are talking about this now and00:16:42
Apparently Johnson is hinting at this00:16:44
that this assistance can be issued00:16:46
as a long-term interest-free00:16:49
loan and also00:16:53
these or at00:16:55
least part of these frozen accounts can be used as collateral00:16:59
Michael McCall, the Republican,00:17:01
has already spoken about this, he has already proposed this, and00:17:05
in this context, Malta Luxembourg00:17:07
Hungary said today that they are against the00:17:10
use of income from frozen00:17:12
Russian assets for the purchase of00:17:14
ammunition for Ukraine. According to him, the00:17:17
desire of the Chairman of the European Commission,00:17:19
Usla Vonderlein, to use funds00:17:21
in this way was00:17:27
complicated, according to Tom agreement00:17:30
that the third 3 billion euros of income will go to the00:17:35
restoration of00:17:36
Ukraine That is, how to use these00:17:39
funds remains a big question for the00:17:40
EU countries. I understand that this is a wasp topic,00:17:42
there is a fear that this will affect the00:17:44
general00:17:46
credibility of the00:17:49
Western financial system, let’s say so00:17:52
less It seems to me that if there is00:17:53
political Will in Washington Well, it’s00:17:56
hard for me to imagine that Malta00:17:57
Luxembourg Hungary will have00:17:59
something to oppose00:18:02
this Well, as long as the current00:18:05
mechanism for governing the European Union exists, they00:18:07
can formally throw some sticks in the mix,00:18:09
most likely they are trying00:18:12
to get their share of the pie Let’s be00:18:13
cynical Peter, you need to understand that00:18:16
no one will give this money directly to Ukraine,00:18:18
it will go to a certain fund from00:18:20
which the restoration will be financed,00:18:24
while00:18:25
discussing the restoration of00:18:29
projects in Europe since the Marshall Plan, and00:18:32
everyone is already trying to score some00:18:35
plot for themselves in this beautiful zone called Trion Lumber00:18:38
the figure of a trillion dollars Yes, everyone is00:18:41
trying to put their foot in this trillion dollars00:18:43
in order to participate in it,00:18:45
so I suspect that there is00:18:46
already a blackmail push going on so that some kind of00:18:49
operations go through these countries so that00:18:52
their companies can also participate in this,00:18:53
these wounds can be earned I00:18:55
think here The main concern00:18:59
in this process and to unfasten something for00:19:01
our business, let’s not, so to speak, be an00:19:03
idealist; people are cynical and just want to00:19:05
make money. Well, now00:19:07
the Democrats are kicking Goya a little00:19:10
about how to set such conditions in a warring country. To00:19:12
increase this burden, which is already00:19:16
very difficult as if for Ukraine, but as I00:19:18
understand it, everyone also understands that this is an00:19:20
opportunity for the Republicans and the same00:19:22
Trump to earn points, look how we00:19:24
began to radically change the position00:19:26
no riders everyone pays there, but everyone00:19:29
probably understands perfectly well that00:19:31
at least for the next decades00:19:33
Ukraine will not pay these loans00:19:37
Well, Peter, I pay attention that you00:19:39
are telling me about the USA and you00:19:41
know very well that the USA case00:19:43
law and the concept of precedent for the00:19:45
American legal and00:19:47
political system is extremely important. I00:19:49
remind you that the Soviet Union during the00:19:52
Second World War No one from the USA money00:19:54
just like that didn’t give, the00:19:56
Lisa system was launched, which means that everything that00:19:59
represented the United States was provided on00:20:00
credit with the obligation to pay later, I00:20:03
remind you that everything that was not lost during00:20:05
the war had to be paid. And in general, the00:20:07
Soviet Union, of course, fought back for a long time,00:20:09
paid practically nothing, but00:20:11
formally it was formalized precisely00:20:12
only in this scheme,00:20:14
the legislation and US legislators did00:20:18
not want to directly give to the Soviet Union, which fought against Hitler. I think that we00:20:21
are seeing the restoration of this same00:20:22
precedent00:20:25
situation in which00:20:27
this publication and00:20:30
Lumberberg literally just came out today with00:20:34
such an article with a headline in three years The00:20:36
poverty level in Russia has reached a00:20:39
historical low. The poverty level00:20:42
in 2 years has dropped below 10%, crossing a00:20:45
historical low for the first time in more than 12 years,00:20:49
and Russia is approaching elections00:20:51
in good shape. The Kremlin is spending00:20:54
significant significant amounts of money on00:20:55
social support for families, increasing00:20:57
pensions, mortgage subsidies and compensation for00:21:00
relatives of military personnel. what kind00:21:02
of alternative Universe is this, that00:21:04
is, from our conversations with you and00:21:05
other economic analysts, we00:21:08
hear everything except that the Kremlin is00:21:10
now spending significant funds00:21:11
on this for war, that is, what are these00:21:15
numbers and what kind of manipulation is this Peter,00:21:19
see war war and in a war, someone00:21:22
fights and, accordingly,00:21:24
money is paid to the families of the mobilized to the families of00:21:27
those fighting, this same money enters the00:21:29
economy, these are also military expenses,00:21:32
only formally they look like00:21:34
social expenses, which means the poor seven00:21:36
receive this money, their per capita income is00:21:39
growing, a reduction in the number of00:21:41
the poor is recorded, this is a simple picture It’s00:21:44
not the most highly profitable managers of00:21:46
Russian large companies who go to fight, but00:21:48
ordinary people who go to fight. This has always been the case00:21:51
throughout history: a peasant went to fight and a00:21:53
rich merchant from a farming town. Well,00:21:56
the picture is about the same now, and00:21:58
calls from poor regions there for families to be00:22:01
paid in some places, this is00:22:02
really 5 million for a dead person, which means00:22:05
in some places where 12 million in Chechnya, in00:22:08
my opinion, 12 million for a dead person are paid, this00:22:10
money goes to families that are not rich, to put it mildly,00:22:12
and formally increases the level of00:22:14
well-being. But this, of course, is such a00:22:16
terrible scheme, this is an increase in00:22:18
well-being by killing the men00:22:20
who were in these families their owners00:22:23
were husbands, they were fathers, this is the00:22:26
picture, well, again,00:22:28
Russia is at war. Yes, it really does give00:22:31
some kind of Stimulus to the economy for a certain00:22:32
time, but at what cost, at the cost of its actual00:22:36
archaization, killing the long-term,00:22:38
Russian economist Alex Isakov for00:22:40
Lumberg said that Russia has accumulated expenses for military00:22:42
needs long before00:22:45
full-scale aggression, but the00:22:46
government may now be faced with a00:22:48
situation of choice between cutting00:22:50
spending and raising taxes. You00:22:53
also often talk about this. About raising00:22:55
taxes, but because on the one hand,00:22:57
Isakov writes high, and military00:23:00
social payments can actually00:23:02
continue to stimulate00:23:05
price increases of course, look, we are now in a00:23:08
very interesting situation, there00:23:10
is a struggle between the Ministry of Finance and00:23:12
the Central Bank because the Central Bank00:23:14
is responsible for inflation and it sees a simple00:23:16
picture that the Ministry of Finance, through a budget00:23:19
channel through budget expenditures, is pouring a00:23:21
huge amount of money into the economy. It00:23:23
goes through industrial military00:23:25
enterprises through these seven00:23:26
mobilized, it spills onto the market and00:23:28
generates inflation. The Central Bank must00:23:30
stop inflation, so the Central Bank is trying to somehow00:23:33
turn on the credit channel so that00:23:35
money does not flow into the economy. And this is all00:23:37
blocked by the injection of money from the budget of00:23:40
free money that will be given to the military00:23:42
industry and payments to the seven00:23:43
mobilized, therefore Of course, there is a00:23:45
very strong imbalance, but all00:23:47
this requires money and therefore my forecasts00:23:50
that taxes will have to be raised are coming true00:23:52
as if it were just signed, and now00:23:54
this work on raising taxes has already begun00:23:57
and the Duma has confirmed, as well as the Ministry of Finance, that00:23:59
they are working on another scheme for00:24:01
taxing citizens’ incomes and on00:24:04
company taxes, and we don’t even understand00:24:07
that it’s possible and for business,00:24:10
not just a higher tax will be introduced there, 2500:24:12
against instead of DTI, but it’s possible that a00:24:14
progressive scale of00:24:16
income taxation will be introduced. That is, for now,00:24:19
because it’s leaking in. You can even00:24:21
talk about it. And with this progress,00:24:23
it will start with very small income people00:24:25
say Well, look, with a00:24:27
large income, a million rubles will be a00:24:30
progression of income tax will not be 13 but 1500:24:32
What is a million rubles a year, that’s00:24:34
80,000 rubles a month, that’s less than 1,00000:24:37
dollars, well, that’s an accountant in the00:24:39
construction department in Moscow00:24:41
receives approximately this amount of money:00:24:43
82,000, now this rich person00:24:45
will be charged at a higher rate, while00:24:48
taxes for the poorest will apparently not be00:24:50
cancelled, that is, even the poorest00:24:52
will pay their00:24:54
13% from the minimum wage, but the money is urgently needed, so it’s financed from these the00:24:59
growth of the economy is not00:25:02
living, it is not organic growth, it is money00:25:09
thrown into the economy, but it must be taken00:25:11
from somewhere, it can only be obtained through00:25:14
taxes in the end. This is the question itself,00:25:16
given that everything is being transferred to a war00:25:19
footing and the needs of the Workers in the very00:25:24
last place are,00:25:27
of course, close to potential here is00:25:30
Novocherkassk, the new Novocherkassk,00:25:32
remember Yes, the tragedy of the shooting of the Workers of00:25:35
Novocherkassk in the 1990s is actually a00:25:39
real event in Putin’s Russia,00:25:43
you know such an event. Well, 10 years ago I would have said00:25:45
that it’s unrealistic now I can’t. The00:25:48
fact is that we still have00:25:50
such a problem, you know, like crazy officials00:25:52
who are trying with all their might00:25:57
to destroy their own country or the agricultural sector of Russia,00:26:01
which is headed by the junior patrol,00:26:03
feverishly proves its00:26:05
patriotism and fights for00:26:07
import substitution, let’s say for seeds, while it00:26:10
is clear to everything in00:26:12
agriculture that without imported seeds the harvest00:26:14
will collapse and that’s why there is even such a grain union of Russia The00:26:17
Berry Union they00:26:19
categorically demand that they not ban the00:26:21
supply of imported seeds or the harvest will collapse00:26:23
further in Russia. A lot of00:26:26
imported equipment has00:26:29
greatly contributed to00:26:30
agriculture, but this equipment is imported.00:26:33
It is necessary to repair spare parts; it is00:26:35
difficult to obtain, therefore it is necessary.00:26:36
There are great threats to Russian agriculture and it is quite00:26:39
possible that there will be either a shortage of00:26:42
food products or a very strong00:26:44
increase or a combination of both.00:26:47
And then I cannot say what events may happen in00:26:49
the regions.00:26:50
Thank you very much for the conversation, friends,00:26:54
Doctor of Economics Igor00:26:57
PSC00:27:05
[music] was with usDescription:
🔴 Подписывайтесь на наш канал https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMp5Buw-6LpbbV9r9Sl_5yg?sub_confirmation=1 Атаки украинских беспилотников за последние дни привели к остановке трех нефтеперерабатывающих заводов на территории России. Эти объекты составляют около 12% нефтеперерабатывающих мощностей страны-агрессора. Российское правительство уже ввело ограничения на экспорт бензина. По словам экономиста Игоря Липисица могут быть ситуации, когда продукты на складе есть, продукты на производственном предприятии есть, а в магазин завести продукты нельзя, поскольку нельзя заправить транспорт. «Ситуация к лету может оказаться очень неприятной, могут возникнуть снова очереди на заправках, могут повышаться цены на топливо, бензин и солярку». Об этом и не только смотрите в видео на «Фабрике Новостей». 00:00 Интервью Питера Залмаева с Игорем Липсицем 00:10 Как Украине удалось парализовать российские НПЗ? 3:40 Прибалтика планирует опустить «железный занавес» перед РФ и Беларусью 6:17 Какие страны могут попасть во вторичные санкции США? 13:52 Китай потянет Россию за собой в случае обрушения экономики? 15:55 Получит ли Украина замороженные активы РФ? 20:27 В 2023 году уровень бедности в России достиг рекорда 25:16 Урожай-2024 в России под угрозой? ❗️Станьте спонсором этого канала: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMp5Buw-6LpbbV9r9Sl_5yg/join 🔸Подписывайтесь на "Фабрику новостей" в Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser 🔸Сайт "Фабрика новостей" - https://fabryka.news/ ❓ Рекламные размещения (натив, продажа инвентаря) и другие вопросы: [email protected] 💙💛СОБИРАЕМ ДОНАТЫ на медицинское оборудование и лекарства госпиталям, гуманитарную помощь вынужденным переселенцам - https://aaf.org.ua/donate ❌И помните, "Фабрика новостей" не ведет ни один Telegram канал или ТикТок под собственным брендом!
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