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  • ruRussian
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00:00:01
Hello everyone, my name is Ilya Yashin, for the second
00:00:04
week in world news, the aggravation in
00:00:07
relations between Russia and Ukraine, the
00:00:09
fragile peace established in 2015 by the
00:00:12
Minsk agreements will be about
00:00:15
to collapse and
00:00:17
war will begin between our countries, journalists report that
00:00:20
Russian troops are converging on the
00:00:22
Ukrainian border,
00:00:24
satellite satellites are cited as evidence
00:00:26
pictures that record the build-up of
00:00:29
armored artillery units and
00:00:32
ground troops in the Smolensk region,
00:00:34
American television, citing
00:00:36
its sources, reported in the news that
00:00:39
US intelligence warned European
00:00:42
allies about the Kremlin’s plans to launch an
00:00:44
invasion of Ukraine with the onset of
00:00:46
cold weather, finally, Ukrainian President
00:00:48
Vladimir Zelensky directly stated that the
00:00:51
border is already concentrated The 100,000-strong
00:00:54
Russian contingent, his country
00:00:56
is preparing to repel attacks, I'm
00:00:58
getting dressed, etc. you look like I hope that
00:01:01
now the whole world can clearly see who
00:01:03
really wants peace, who is
00:01:04
concentrating almost 100 thousand soldiers on
00:01:06
our border, the
00:01:08
Russian authorities, of course, deny
00:01:11
preparations for war and call it all
00:01:13
stuffing them and fakes, in particular, the head of the
00:01:16
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei
00:01:18
Naryshkin said that rumors about an impending
00:01:21
attack are nonsense, but such
00:01:24
statements reassure few people, at
00:01:27
least because people in the Kremlin often lie and,
00:01:29
most importantly, because we know Putin is not
00:01:32
satisfied with the politics of the current Ukraine, he
00:01:35
does not want to put up with it and there are no other
00:01:37
ways to solve the problem except
00:01:39
forceful pressure. in general, no,
00:01:42
nevertheless, the beginning of a big war
00:01:44
requires serious preparation and we are talking
00:01:47
not only about army maneuvers,
00:01:49
drawing up troops and concentrating equipment,
00:01:51
it is important to understand what specific
00:01:54
political tasks the Kremlin can solve by
00:01:56
starting an invasion, it is more or less clear for
00:01:59
what purpose the war was started in
00:02:02
2014 against the backdrop of the revolution in Kiev,
00:02:04
temporary anarchy, Putin sent
00:02:07
special forces to the Crimea and, without meeting active
00:02:10
resistance, annexed the peninsula to
00:02:12
Russia, after which local republics were proclaimed in Donetsk and Luhansk,
00:02:15
which,
00:02:17
with the support of Moscow, began military
00:02:19
operations against the Ukrainian army,
00:02:22
thus, as a result of a military operation,
00:02:24
Putin first took the composition of Russia is
00:02:27
part of Ukrainian territory and
00:02:29
then noticeably strengthened its own support in
00:02:31
society and secondly created in the east of
00:02:33
Ukraine a lever of pressure on the new Kiev
00:02:36
government. Armed groups in the
00:02:38
Donbass are subordinate to the Kremlin and have been
00:02:41
forceful
00:02:43
arguments in the dialogue between our
00:02:45
countries for several years, but what problems can it solve a
00:02:48
new war with Ukraine,
00:02:49
why does Putin need this and what benefits
00:02:52
can he count on? If we answer
00:02:55
this question, then with my husband it’s not easy to guess whether
00:02:57
the war will start or not, we will be able to
00:03:00
reasonably predict the development of
00:03:02
events and calculate the likelihood of an
00:03:04
invasion, this is exactly what I propose to
00:03:06
do today, let’s try
00:03:09
look into the heads of the Kremlin
00:03:10
inhabitants to understand what to
00:03:12
prepare for, we’ll put everything in order without
00:03:15
unnecessary emotions, I advise you to watch the video
00:03:17
to the end, don’t forget to like it so that
00:03:19
YouTube recommends it to other users more often,
00:03:21
subscribe to my
00:03:23
channel, become its sponsors link
00:03:26
in the pinned comment let’s go
00:03:31
[music]
00:03:36
teeth knocked out
00:03:39
[ music]
00:03:54
so at the end of November, Bloomberg
00:03:57
published data that American
00:03:59
intelligence sent to its allies in
00:04:01
Europe, the United States warns that Putin is
00:04:05
preparing a full-scale invasion of the
00:04:06
territory of Ukraine, the
00:04:08
Americans' concern was caused by the
00:04:10
activity of Russian troops, which are
00:04:12
closing in on the borders and, as stated, the
00:04:14
total number of soldiers and officers already
00:04:17
exceeds 100 thousand people and the
00:04:19
concentration of armed forces is taking place
00:04:22
in three directions at once: firstly, a large
00:04:24
army group arrived on the
00:04:26
territory of Belarus where an
00:04:28
exercise with the ambiguous name West
00:04:31
2021 took place, it is reported that
00:04:34
several thousand
00:04:36
Russian military personnel are taking part in these maneuvers, about 80 aircraft and
00:04:39
helicopters, 760 units of military equipment,
00:04:43
including including tanks and artillery, Lukashenko
00:04:45
personally arrived at the training ground to
00:04:47
observe the exercises, and Putin monitored
00:04:50
them from the command center in the
00:04:51
Nizhny Novgorod region
00:04:53
and everything seemed to be going as normal and there is an
00:04:56
important moment that many
00:04:57
paid attention to when talking to journalists,
00:05:00
Lukashenko identified Ukraine as a
00:05:03
potential combat enemy, but as
00:05:06
you know, we have also added a southern direction,
00:05:08
we have Belarusian
00:05:10
generals and Russians discussing this
00:05:13
topic, we are starting to warm up from the south and what
00:05:15
else will you have to prepare for one thousand
00:05:18
two hundred kilometers of the border with Ukraine and
00:05:21
secondly, satellites of an American private
00:05:24
company photographed the concentration of
00:05:26
military equipment near the city Yelnya in the
00:05:28
Smolensk region,
00:05:29
these photographs were published by
00:05:32
Russian publications, for example, the
00:05:33
Kommersant newspaper, if you believe
00:05:36
the photographs presented, there is an increase in both
00:05:39
manpower and armored
00:05:41
formations; journalists found out that
00:05:43
units of the first
00:05:45
Guards Tank Army are converging on Yelnya in the
00:05:48
Bryansk and Kursk regions;
00:05:50
equipment was also discovered 4 tank to highlight and
00:05:53
thus we can assume that a
00:05:57
strike group is being formed on the territory of central Russia about a
00:06:00
couple of hundred kilometers from the border with
00:06:02
Ukraine; finally, tactical maneuvers are
00:06:04
allegedly recorded in the Crimea, where the
00:06:06
forces of the Russian
00:06:08
navy are concentrated, the Bloomberg publication,
00:06:10
citing its sources in
00:06:12
American intelligence, reports that the
00:06:14
most likely invasion scenario
00:06:17
is a coordinated attack in three directions at once,
00:06:21
respectively, from the territory of Belarus, I am
00:06:23
from central Russia and from the
00:06:25
Crimean peninsula.
00:06:27
Recent speeches by Dmitry
00:06:29
Medvedev, who now holds the post of
00:06:32
deputy head of the Russian
00:06:34
Security Council, in his article, he stated
00:06:37
that the Kremlin considers
00:06:39
political dialogue with the current
00:06:41
authorities of Ukraine pointless and harmful, but what could be an
00:06:44
alternative to dialogue? war is exactly how
00:06:47
many perceived Medvedev’s article as well as
00:06:50
ideological preparation for military
00:06:52
aggression, the only difference is that some
00:06:55
perceived it with alarm and others with
00:06:57
hope an article in which it is clearly
00:07:01
stated that there is nothing to talk about with vassals, you
00:07:04
need to talk about it with their masters,
00:07:07
appeared at the perfect time because
00:07:10
Victoria Nuland is flying to Moscow and
00:07:14
she will already come back and say Crimea, here you
00:07:17
take Donbass, everything on the other side,
00:07:21
if you put aside emotions, it seems like nothing
00:07:24
supernatural things are not happening, well,
00:07:26
Russian troops are maneuvering, conducting
00:07:28
exercises, moving divisions, gathering
00:07:31
military equipment, but this is not the
00:07:34
first concentration of armed forces on the
00:07:36
border with Ukraine that can be
00:07:38
observed after the end of the war in
00:07:41
2015, for example, in 2017,
00:07:43
large military
00:07:46
exercises with the participation of the Russian Federation have already taken place on the territory of Belarus Army
00:07:48
representatives of NATO then directly called
00:07:51
these exercises provocative and
00:07:52
aggressive, and in April of this year,
00:07:54
journalists also recorded the drawing of
00:07:57
Russian troops to the border and Kiev
00:07:59
officials then rang the bells
00:08:01
warning of the impending invasion,
00:08:04
it was assumed that Putin could start a
00:08:06
war against the backdrop of the election campaign that had started in Russia,
00:08:08
well, in order to increase
00:08:10
the rating party in power, but no war
00:08:13
happened then to ensure the
00:08:15
victory of a united Russia, tanks and planes were not
00:08:17
needed, there was enough falsification, so
00:08:20
how is the situation fundamentally different
00:08:22
now, why would Putin need an
00:08:25
armed invasion of the territory of
00:08:27
Ukraine, well, let's look point by
00:08:30
point at the political goals of the military
00:08:32
campaign that the Kremlin claims
00:08:34
American intelligence may begin this
00:08:37
winter for the first time to finally resolve the issue of
00:08:39
Donbass. It was here that during the last
00:08:42
war the main hostilities took place
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after the inclusion of Crimea into
00:08:46
Russia, armed groups began to
00:08:49
seize the administrations of cities in
00:08:51
eastern Ukraine. These groups included
00:08:54
many Russian citizens, among whom
00:08:56
there were enough soldiers and officers with with real
00:08:58
combat experience, the Kremlin officially denied
00:09:01
involvement in these operations, pointing out
00:09:03
that Russian citizens were going to fight from
00:09:05
Ukraine privately and the military
00:09:07
took vacations before going
00:09:10
to the combat zone,
00:09:11
but you can’t hide the bag, it
00:09:13
quickly became clear that groups of so-
00:09:15
called militias were being formed
00:09:18
and were arming themselves with Russian the authorities
00:09:21
organized them to transport them across the border and the
00:09:23
coordination of these actions was carried out by
00:09:25
Russian commanders. On the territory of
00:09:27
Donbass, the so
00:09:29
-called Donetsk and Lugansk People's
00:09:32
Republics were proclaimed, which received political
00:09:34
financial support from Moscow and, in
00:09:37
fact, were directly subordinate to the Kremlin, Putin
00:09:39
emphasized in every possible way that he had no
00:09:41
direct connection with confrontation in the
00:09:43
Donbass called this war a civil war,
00:09:46
but when the Ukrainian army went on the
00:09:48
offensive, Russia organized
00:09:50
military intervention in the conflict in
00:09:52
August 14 and in January 15, there was a
00:09:56
threat of a complete defeat of the separatists and
00:09:59
the return of Donbass to Ukrainian
00:10:01
control, and both times regular units of the
00:10:03
Russian army came to the aid of the
00:10:05
separatists,
00:10:06
pushing the Ukrainians back and as a result,
00:10:09
peace agreements were signed in Minsk,
00:10:11
and even though Utiniy denied
00:10:14
Russia’s participation in the war, it was he who personally
00:10:16
signed the peace agreement with Ukraine, and so
00:10:19
in 2015, the issue of Donbass remains
00:10:22
suspended, everyone understands that in fact
00:10:25
this territory is controlled by the Kremlin,
00:10:27
local residents are actively distributing
00:10:30
Russian passports
00:10:31
economics social systems pensions are all
00:10:34
provided by Russian
00:10:36
budget money, but
00:10:39
Donbass has never officially joined Russia, despite the fact
00:10:41
that Kremlin propaganda
00:10:42
periodically talks about this, for example,
00:10:45
Margarita Simonyan several months
00:10:47
ago publicly addressed Putin with such a
00:10:49
proposal. People of Donbass
00:10:52
want to live at home and want to be
00:10:55
part of of our huge great
00:10:58
generous homeland and would be obliged to provide this to them,
00:11:04
Mother Russia,
00:11:06
take Donbass home, and so the question can be
00:11:11
whether the goal of a military operation can be the complete
00:11:14
annexation of Donbass to Russia, I believe
00:11:17
that no, Putin has many times called for
00:11:20
compliance with the Minsk agreements; these
00:11:22
documents are many contradictory and
00:11:24
complex moments, but it is very important that
00:11:27
Donbass is still recognized as Ukrainian
00:11:29
territory, this is enshrined in the signature of the
00:11:31
Russian president, but it can be
00:11:34
assumed that Putin has reconsidered his
00:11:36
attitude to this issue, for example, he
00:11:38
believes that over the past six years, Kiev has
00:11:40
not been able to convince the residents of Donbass
00:11:42
to return to Ukraine, but on the contrary, the
00:11:44
local population demonstrated a
00:11:46
strong desire to be part of Russia, but
00:11:49
no, please note that just a couple of
00:11:52
weeks ago Putin signed a decree
00:11:54
facilitating the access of goods to Russia from the
00:11:57
territory of Donbass. In his decree,
00:11:59
he does not even mention the unrecognized
00:12:01
republics, calling this territory
00:12:03
separate regions of Ukraine, that is, in
00:12:06
fact he recognizes Ukrainian sovereignty throughout the
00:12:09
entire Donbass, and besides, if
00:12:12
the Kremlin takes the Donbass into Russia with the
00:12:15
help of military force, then it will lose an
00:12:16
important lever of pressure on Kiev and the
00:12:19
West, because now this territory
00:12:21
is a constant headache for
00:12:24
xii Lensky, it’s kind of like the territory of
00:12:26
Ukraine, but at the same time return there
00:12:29
is no possibility of control over it, from time to time
00:12:31
they shoot on the line of contact,
00:12:33
they kill Ukrainian soldiers, tension in society is
00:12:36
growing, and Putin can always
00:12:38
use this bubble for blackmail,
00:12:41
because he has the opportunity to manually aggravate the
00:12:43
situation in
00:12:45
Donbass with the help of local groups
00:12:47
and vice versa reassure by pulling the
00:12:50
leash the annexation of Donbass to Russia
00:12:53
will make this region a headache for
00:12:55
Putin himself, who will receive not only
00:12:58
several thousand coffins of Russian soldiers
00:13:00
and new tough sanctions, he will be
00:13:02
forced to integrate this territory into
00:13:05
Russia to form there, well, what
00:13:07
kind of legal field organizes
00:13:09
legitimate authorities to increase
00:13:11
budget funding
00:13:13
Donbass is dilapidated, socially
00:13:15
unstable, the level of crime there is prohibitive,
00:13:17
it requires a lot of money to
00:13:20
restore the structure of payment of
00:13:22
pensions and benefits for Putin, this is a suitcase
00:13:25
without a handle and it is not at all a fact, by the way,
00:13:28
that the inclusion of Donbass in Russia
00:13:30
will lead to the same inspiration and
00:13:32
growth in ratings as its own time for
00:13:34
the annexation of Crimea, I’m sure that even
00:13:37
the voters of a united Russia will now tell
00:13:39
us there’s nothing to eat here, why on earth
00:13:42
should we now also feed Donetsk and
00:13:44
Lugansk, so it’s unlikely that the goal of a
00:13:46
possible invasion is Donbass,
00:13:49
then let’s move on to the second thesis,
00:13:51
perhaps Putin wants to finally create a
00:13:54
land connection for Russia with Crimea since
00:13:57
2014, the peninsula was essentially
00:14:00
isolated, the Kremlin established control,
00:14:03
provided military protection, but physically
00:14:06
getting to Crimea was a whole problem
00:14:07
because Ukraine, of course, did its
00:14:10
best to prevent this; moreover,
00:14:12
Kiev took a whole range of
00:14:14
measures to organize a blockade of Crimea; the
00:14:20
water supply power system was blocked and transport links,
00:14:22
all this really irritated Putin and
00:14:24
of course I want to solve the problem. In general,
00:14:27
the idea of ​​​​breaking a land connection to
00:14:29
Crimea with the help of the army has been discussed for
00:14:31
several years and it seems that if you look at the
00:14:34
situation through Putin’s eyes, you can find a
00:14:36
log in such a military campaign, but it is worth
00:14:39
recalling that the severity of the problem is somewhat
00:14:41
decreased when the bridge across the
00:14:44
Kerch Strait was completed, it cost our budget
00:14:47
almost 200 28 billion
00:14:50
rubles, but it provided road and
00:14:52
rail connections between Crimea and
00:14:54
Russia, not all the problems of
00:14:56
the peninsula, of course, international sanctions have been solved, the
00:14:59
Ukrainian blockade still
00:15:01
hurts the economy, but still it’s
00:15:03
impossible to say that Crimea is currently
00:15:05
isolated, it lives a more or less
00:15:08
normal life, certainly no worse than
00:15:10
the average Russian region, and
00:15:12
besides, we must not forget that in 2015 the
00:15:15
Russian army had every opportunity
00:15:17
to solve the problem of a land connection with the
00:15:20
Crimea, the troops then came close to
00:15:22
the Ukrainian the city of Mariupol, the capture of
00:15:25
which opened a direct route to the Crimea
00:15:28
along the coast; however, Putin then
00:15:30
gave the order to stop the offensive and sat down
00:15:34
at the negotiating table with Poroshenko in Minsk.
00:15:36
I very much doubt that now, in order to
00:15:39
solve a problem that is
00:15:41
much less acute, the Kremlin will decide
00:15:43
on a big war, because the potential
00:15:45
benefits from a military campaign on the coast is
00:15:48
definitely not comparable to the damage
00:15:51
that could be caused to Russia from the
00:15:53
consequences of such a war, so let’s
00:15:55
move on to the third option: perhaps
00:15:58
Putin wants to solve some minor
00:16:00
tactical problems, maybe he is
00:16:02
preparing to find a military solution to the entire
00:16:04
Ukrainian issue and hoist the
00:16:06
Russian flag over Kiev, to be honest,
00:16:09
given the psychological state of
00:16:11
Putin and his entourage, this scenario,
00:16:14
although it seems wild, is of great
00:16:16
concern, let's face it, Putin
00:16:19
considers himself the greatest modern
00:16:21
politician who is able to
00:16:23
outplay everyone in resolving any issue, he is
00:16:26
openly angry that Ukraine is so
00:16:28
hostile towards him that he cannot
00:16:31
manages to get loyal leadership there,
00:16:33
well, like former President Yanukovych, through
00:16:35
political methods; in this way,
00:16:38
he considers Western leaders to be outright
00:16:40
weaklings who will respond to even the most severe
00:16:43
military actions only with
00:16:45
actions and expressions of concern; such a
00:16:48
picture of the world in the head creates a
00:16:50
real threat, but really how much
00:16:53
you can mess around with this Ukraine, not a lot of
00:16:55
Russian tanks, maybe they can’t
00:16:58
reach Kiev and even Lvov when
00:17:00
Putin became president, his main
00:17:02
problem was Chechnya, on the territory of
00:17:04
which there was a war and which demanded
00:17:06
independence, but the armed
00:17:09
resistance was destroyed with the help of the
00:17:11
army, the leader was a local
00:17:14
mufti was appointed who agreed to cooperate, the
00:17:16
republic was bombarded with budget money
00:17:18
and thus, with the help of carrots and
00:17:21
sticks in Putin’s logic, the problem was solved.
00:17:24
Chechnya is no longer at war and recognizes itself as
00:17:26
part of Russia. I can easily
00:17:28
imagine that the question is spinning in my head,
00:17:30
why not do the
00:17:33
same with Ukraine, with the help of the armed
00:17:36
forces, reach the capital, suppress
00:17:37
resistance and disperse the local
00:17:39
government, hold elections under the
00:17:41
control of the army, elect President, but for
00:17:44
example, Putin’s godfather Medvedchuk,
00:17:46
who heads some small
00:17:48
party there, but even further, use carrots
00:17:51
and sticks to buy the loyalty of the population
00:17:53
with the help of cash injections and those who
00:17:55
resist are harshly suppressed by
00:17:58
punitive measures, but on the other hand,
00:18:00
Putin probably has this question in his
00:18:03
head for many years now, and yet
00:18:05
he still hasn’t decided on the adventure of a military campaign against Kiev;
00:18:08
moreover,
00:18:11
even the war with Georgia in 2008
00:18:13
ended with the withdrawal of Russian troops
00:18:16
who stopped literally a
00:18:18
few kilometers from Tbilisi,
00:18:20
why, but probably Putin still understands that
00:18:23
Ukraine is not Chechnya at all, if only
00:18:26
because Ukraine is 40 times larger and the
00:18:28
population is about 28 times larger than the Chechen one,
00:18:30
Ukraine is actually one of the
00:18:33
largest states in Europe, which
00:18:35
has the industrial potential of a regular
00:18:38
army and internationally recognized
00:18:40
sovereignty, wet dreams of the occupation of
00:18:43
Ukraine are shattered by the harsh reality, the
00:18:45
citizens of this country for 30 years have learned to
00:18:48
value their independence, an attempt to
00:18:50
take it away by imposing an occupation
00:18:53
administration led by a notional
00:18:54
Medvedchuk will cause the most severe
00:18:56
resistance from the
00:18:57
Soviet Union At the end of his
00:18:59
historical journey, he choked on
00:19:01
Afghanistan and Ukraine in the event of a military
00:19:04
invasion, it will obviously become a bone in
00:19:06
Putin’s throat, which is unlikely to be swallowed by this piece,
00:19:08
judging by the fact that in 2015 Putin
00:19:11
nevertheless sat down at the negotiating table with
00:19:14
Ukraine, which by the way was then
00:19:16
much weaker and more vulnerable than he is now
00:19:19
still understands the adventurousness of such a
00:19:21
scenario and I don’t believe that the Kremlin is seriously
00:19:24
considering the plan for a full-fledged military
00:19:26
occupation of Ukraine, so what then
00:19:28
is happening, why all these maneuvers, why are the
00:19:31
borders drawing up troops, if there is no
00:19:34
political problem that a
00:19:36
military operation can solve, then why
00:19:38
prepare an obvious answer for this military operation the fact is
00:19:41
that the Kremlin is not actually planning any war;
00:19:43
all these maneuvers on the border are
00:19:46
nothing more than blackmail with the help of which
00:19:48
Putin wants to impose a dialogue on Western countries
00:19:50
on his own terms,
00:19:52
as Putin himself says, in order for the West to
00:19:55
respect you, he must be kept in suspense all the time,
00:19:58
this is his understanding In the
00:20:00
geopolitical process, tension
00:20:02
did arise there and in this regard,
00:20:06
I see two points here: firstly,
00:20:08
they need to maintain this state for as
00:20:10
long as possible,
00:20:11
what issues should the Kremlin solve by
00:20:14
creating tension in relations with
00:20:16
the West, for example, the question regarding
00:20:18
sanctions is in words the Russian authorities
00:20:21
are laughing at sanctions and talk about
00:20:24
import substitution, in reality it
00:20:27
hurts the economy and makes it difficult for
00:20:29
officials to live with the oligarchs since 2014,
00:20:32
when the first war with Ukraine began, the
00:20:34
income of the Russian population has been constantly
00:20:37
declining for seven years in a row, we need to
00:20:40
somehow solve this problem, lift the sanctions,
00:20:42
revive the economy, or that’s the question with the
00:20:45
Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which was
00:20:47
laid to Europe for a lot of money, the pipe was
00:20:50
completed, only now the
00:20:52
certification process has slowed down and it is necessary to somehow
00:20:54
explain to the Western partner so that they
00:20:56
speed up without waiting for the completion of
00:20:58
bureaucratic formalities, but
00:21:00
look at Lukashenko,
00:21:03
no one recognizes his legitimacy in Europe, everyone around him
00:21:05
thinks a dangerous psychopath, but now he
00:21:08
is creating a migration crisis on the
00:21:09
Polish border and look, now the
00:21:12
angels Merkel is calling about something with him, a
00:21:14
critical
00:21:16
dialogue begins, and Putin is
00:21:19
convinced that in order to normalize
00:21:21
the dialogue with the West, you just need to apply a little
00:21:24
physical pressure, even pull it out you just
00:21:26
need to rattle your
00:21:29
weapons and they will come running
00:21:31
to negotiate and the Americans will help
00:21:33
escalate the situation, you can assume
00:21:36
that President Joe will go, but this crisis is
00:21:39
very opportune, very recently he received a
00:21:41
serious blow to his reputation when he
00:21:43
actually transferred Afghanistan to the
00:21:46
control of radical Islamists from the
00:21:47
Taliban movement, banned in Russia
00:21:50
many accuse him of abandoning
00:21:53
millions of citizens of this country to the mercy of fate,
00:21:55
whom the United States promised protection, and
00:21:58
now the Maidan has a chance to act
00:22:00
as a peacemaker by preventing a war between
00:22:03
Russia and Ukraine, especially if
00:22:05
no one plans to start this war, and
00:22:07
you know, I’m building logical chains
00:22:09
I present arguments, I reassure myself and
00:22:13
convince myself that there will be no war, but
00:22:15
really no one needs this war,
00:22:18
neither Russia, what we just
00:22:20
discussed,
00:22:21
not the West, much less Ukraine, there is
00:22:23
only one problem when we
00:22:26
predict Putin’s action, logical
00:22:28
rational arguments do not always
00:22:30
work this the man
00:22:33
has been in power for too long, he revels too much in
00:22:36
his greatness, he sees no equal to himself and
00:22:39
really considers the world
00:22:41
leaders around him to be worthless weaklings, which
00:22:44
means that you can expect anything from him at all
00:22:46
Alfred Koch once
00:22:49
asked Boris Nemtsov a question Borya, you’re a
00:22:52
smart person An experienced politician, candidate of
00:22:54
sciences, why do you always lose a C
00:22:57
grade to Putin and the Germans, he honestly
00:22:59
answered that every time he underestimates the
00:23:02
degree of it from connectedness and when building
00:23:04
my logical chains of reasoning, I
00:23:07
often pull myself back and understand that I
00:23:09
also underestimate the degree from the elm nastiness of the
00:23:12
Russian authorities, who could have guessed
00:23:14
that they have the audacity to kill Nemtsov
00:23:17
in the center of Moscow who could have
00:23:19
thought that FSB officers were organizing an
00:23:21
attempt on Navalny’s life who
00:23:24
seriously believe that in 2014 Putin
00:23:27
will take Crimea and send Russian soldiers
00:23:29
to fight the Ukrainians and I understand that all
00:23:32
my arguments are simply broken into
00:23:34
small fragments in reality, all that remains is to
00:23:36
calm yourself down by appealing to
00:23:38
common sense and hope that this
00:23:41
time it will work out and the Russians and Ukrainians
00:23:44
will not kill each other again thank you for
00:23:46
watching this video to the end, like it so
00:23:48
that YouTube
00:23:51
recommends it to other users more often,
00:23:53
share the video on social networks,
00:23:55
subscribe to mine channel and remind you
00:23:57
that you can support my work by becoming
00:24:00
sponsors of the channel link in pinned
00:24:02
comment peace to your home and
00:24:05
see you again

Description:

Российские войска стягивают к границе с Украиной. США предупредили Зеленого, что Путин планирует ударить сразу по трем направлениям. ВСУ готовятся к обороне. Но какие цели может преследовать новая война? Захват Донбасса? Триколор над Киевом? Или, может быть, Кремль просто шантажирует западных лидеров, принуждая их к диалогу? В этом видео — разбираемся в ситуации и прогнозируем дальнейшее развитие событий. Досмотрите ролик до конца, делитесь им в соцсетях и ставьте 👍 лайк, чтобы YouTube чаще рекомендовал его другим пользователям. Подписывайтесь на канал! Чтобы поддержать работу этого канала, становитесь его спонсором: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoHH5raTevyI35tfb1YF6qA/join Подписывайтесь на соцсети Ильи Яшина: Инстаграм https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Твиттер https://twitter.com/IlyaYashin Фейсбук https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Вконтакте https://vk.com/ilya_yashin При монтаже видео использованы фрагменты роликов, размещенных в открытом доступе по следующим ссылкам: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7qIYQ-XpuE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opjv9RsmSdk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tayKdqtqFEQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WiUT5xykzg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yVcG6i-Xr4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CECajNQ1Gwg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b44EOWPUZS0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaW7wLYiaNo

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