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павел_лакийчук

украина_война

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hello, this is covered by the asset and we

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continue our broadcast, I want to remind you that the

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sponsor of the channel is the hetman's trademark

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medical center prism based on non-communication

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pavel on the kitsch which you already

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know very well, but nevertheless let me remind you

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that he is the head of

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security programs centers of

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global studies strategy 21 and grow up

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glad to see good afternoon,

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thank you Pavel, let me start with a

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hot, burning question, this is the

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question of the Ukrainian grain base and the

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unblocking of Ukrainian ports, we have been

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talking about this too much in

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recent days and

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there are both supporters and active

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opponents of this process because

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supporters believe that it is important for

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saving for the economy Ukraine, but those

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who are opponents say that in terms of

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security issues, this is somehow not a

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very good story, it may be a story for

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Ukraine, so how do you assess how much

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grain export is today, how much is here,

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plus it, how many minuses are here,

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how difficult it will be, so no questions

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Moreover, it’s not even clear where to

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develop this event,

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if we take a conceptual approach, it’s clear

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that

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now Ukraine, together with the

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United Nations, a completely civilized

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world, is trying

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to protect the world from Putin’s

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next blackmail from blackmailing

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people, too, they’re just Ukraine blackmailing the

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whole world with hunger,

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threats and hunger, and

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this is a fight with the state, not just

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pirates, state terrorists,

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terrorists of unprecedented proportions,

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when

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like when the Soviet Union threatened the whole

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world with nuclear war,

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the heiress of Russia threatens the whole world

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with hunger, and when Russia, with a nickname, says that

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they are

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the floor of Ukraine’s problem. problems

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of the Ukrainian times so we Russia can

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ensure

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the transportation of Ukrainian grain from

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Europe to Asia to Africa and

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at the same time they strike at the

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Nikolaev ones to take on the

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missile mountain storage facility or the port land of

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the granary there are no other objects

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that can be confused with these times the lady

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when Ukraine says that she is

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ready

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to supply grain by

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rail, they strike at Dr.

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Vazy in Kiev at the plant that

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produces pens for

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transporting this grain, that is, but by

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their actions they directly show

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who is

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interested in what, and these are the negotiations

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that have passed the first stage, which

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took place in Turkey. The

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Russian and Ukrainian military, the

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Turkish military and representatives of the

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United Nations took part; on the

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one hand, they

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create such a ray of hope

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for resolving

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the situation; on the other hand, they

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raise even more questions than they give

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answers

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when Russia does not say that they

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want to control all the ships

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that will be from Ukrainian ports on

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the subject, but this is a separate topic on the subject of

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weapons smuggling,

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what is smuggling,

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we know fillet how to say here, a

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completely new definition of

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the concept of smuggling is used

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when they demand

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the unblocking of the port, first of all,

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once

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our mines are cleared in our territorial waters, a

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number of

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questions arise, unfortunately, there are questions

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to the position of the Turkish side

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because the

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Turks are offering those mechanisms that, how can I

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put it organizationally, are located

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on the territory of Turkey but are controlled from

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Moscow on the floor of the Black Sea harmony

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where the

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mechanism worked out in previous years as

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this operation to ensure the security of the

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Black Sea

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fight against

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crime was in fact

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redirected and, roughly speaking

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control over ours over our international

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sea, our

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hands are therefore ours, and this program has become

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ingloriously numb,

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disappeared with the beginning of the military

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occupation of Russia, the black

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question arises immediately, in parallel, the

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Turks are not only

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playing into the hands of the lowly ones, they are also

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playing into the hands of Moscow; in another moment, the

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Russians, together with the blockade of Ukrainian

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remote controls, are

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actively carry out the export of Ukrainian

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grain stolen Ukrainian grain sky

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Sonchino Zaporozhye Zaporozhye through the port and

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Crimea through the ports of the Sea of Azov

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using their ships and not only they

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openly transport the

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stolen goods through the Black Sea through the

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Black Sea straits

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which the sharp side controls to

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its allies,

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perhaps in some other criminal

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how to say the

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criminal regime

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knows for certain the Assyrian

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Syrian regime of Assad, but they also

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transship this grain in

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Turkey,

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in fact, the Turks turn a blind eye to

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[music] the

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criminal origin of this grain,

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counting on a certain

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economic bronx,

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I don’t think that

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the role of the Turkish state in this issue is

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most likely this way

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turn a blind eye to

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[music] the

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actions of the

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Russians solely for the purpose of obtaining

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economic benefits; the

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same thing

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is possible that the Turks will try to

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implement precisely in the

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project

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of unblocking the so-called Ukrainian

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ports and how realistic this will be is

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very difficult to say and the

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second point that is

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very

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very very very possible is very

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present here the safest moment

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because

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Ukraine is ready to fulfill the demand for demining the opening of ours, but no one is

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ready to give

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effective guarantees

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[music] of

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driving away, or how can I say,

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Russian ships from our shores,

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only

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American hunchbacks and Ukrainians, no one has

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the opportunity yet, not the

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Turkish side, not other countries, not we are

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ready to

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escort

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black ships, we are talking about

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protecting the port from Russian ships,

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and

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here’s another thing, if you allow me, it seems to me that there is

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one important question, of course the world is

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interested; Ukraine is probably

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interested in some kind of

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partial

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unblocking of Ukrainian ports, but on the

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other hand,

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why We shouldn’t insist that if you want

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unblocking of ports, it means free

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shipping, war on terror, check that everything is so

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that you can export grain and

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bring something into the territory of Ukraine,

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otherwise we don’t agree, can we

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afford to

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talk like this today, well, because where is it

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good for it to give you? Russia hasn’t

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looked into what we are exporting on our

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ships, but in my opinion this is completely

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overkill, not only are they stealing, as you

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rightly said, not only that,

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well, I also looked at this investigation

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that Ukrainian journalists did

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like in Turkey in the ports they are wonderful

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to meet these, this is stolen grain,

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it is clear that Russia invested in

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some ports there, built them turd there in

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Turkey, but here we have what it all has to do with it, they

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understand that this is Ukrainian grain and you

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rightly noted that it is unlikely from the Turkish

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government if it would have worked out

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because Erdogan, I think that you

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know, is expressed so poorly there, but without

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control it won’t slip through, for some reason it

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seems to me that way, and in this sense, can we

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actually also somehow behave more harshly here? It

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seems to me that

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this is

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not even the position of Ukraine, this should be

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the position of the international community of the

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international convention on

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international maritime injuries, they were

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signed and regulated by the

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United Nations and the

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principle of freedom of navigation

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guarantees, first of all,

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this issue

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should be the interests of

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not only the

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Black Sea states, but also

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the interests of all the world powers that

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so often

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very strongly advocate

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maintaining freedom of navigation

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somewhere in the Pacific region,

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completely turning a blind eye to what is

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happening behind closed doors, what the store cannot do, the

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second point is that

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we are strong enough to fight the

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opening of shipping in the Black Sea alone,

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this is not what we should do to involve and

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assist all countries of the Black Sea

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region, unfortunately, this process

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is still in its infancy, and from the

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very beginning of the crisis, Ukraine

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considered several alternative

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options, considered and is trying to

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implement several alternative

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options for

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foreign trade, including grain,

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first of all, transshipment by

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rail through the ports of the Baltic

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Sea

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then there is from the

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Ukrainian through the Ukrainian they indicated the

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Ukrainian you climb

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transshipment on the railways of the countries of

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Eastern Europe to the ports of the Baltic and

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Northern seas

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this route has already worked delivery has already been

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carried out

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Miss Pauling Galkin I ask you to

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share

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the corn and

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it is already quite active the

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fact is that this road in the

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first place is

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double transshipment between

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railways, we have different

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standards of tracks and

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those purely technically need to be reloaded at the

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border of Ukraine,

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for example, more width means we

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need to reload the wagon onto other

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bogies, or this immediately

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significantly increases the

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cost of the

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final product; the second track,

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which we used even after

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the destruction of

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the Russian garrison and snake

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we are now using us even more actively

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if the main transshipment of up to 80 percent of

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all

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external economic relations of

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maritime Ukraine was carried out here through the

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port and the

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Odessa agglomeration of Nikolaev with Kherson,

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then in

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fact, which is now closed 12

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percent of them were ports of the

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Sea of Azov and

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about a few percent there are

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small relatively small port and

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on the Danube River

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Ismail let the Danube

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Vilkova they were in peacetime,

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so what about the staff

00:15:08

carried out a minor participation in

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general transportation now this whole stream is

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moving towards them and yes,

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grain transshipment is now

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carried out through our Ural port by ships

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accompanied by naval boats

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forces you ships of the Ukrainian naval forces

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for a long time Romanian shooting ranges,

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some part of the

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grain traffic they carry out is

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real, you need to understand that their

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purely logistical

00:15:47

structural capabilities are very much not limited by

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ships, technically, and in addition to ports, there are also

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roads, which in that region are

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not at all intended for

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for such a load, here are at least

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two ways that we are already implementing, we

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are demonstrating to the world

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what we are doing, in fact, we are doing

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everything we can to

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supply grain to the

00:16:22

same countries in Africa and Asia that are

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our clamp and this is the

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Putin regime is it

00:16:36

possible is it

00:16:42

possible is it possible? traffic through the

00:16:45

Odessa ports is, in

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principle, theoretically possible

00:16:50

only if

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Turkey,

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maybe other countries of the

00:16:57

North Atlantic Alliance can and will

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agree, the main thing is to really guarantee the

00:17:03

safety of maritime navigation in this

00:17:07

form, we actually have Turkey or

00:17:09

Britain and the

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United States of

00:17:12

Italy

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France,

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it’s strange that

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the Netherlands are countries that are very strongly

00:17:22

advocates the principle of a purely year of

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shipping and to

00:17:30

say it’s not just dishonest

00:17:34

to approach this selectively, it seems to me that

00:17:37

this is not only dishonest Tony product

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if you

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lie once here, next time you

00:17:46

they’re warming up another revenge in the

00:17:50

end I’m rolling from South Asian

00:17:55

countries can say that

00:17:58

you are making some strange demands on us,

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there you did not demand a polling station for us,

00:18:09

this is at least

00:18:13

Pavel, and of course I would like to move on to the

00:18:17

military part

00:18:19

because it was said for a long time that

00:18:23

some kind of operational ball was approaching, there

00:18:25

was no feeling that an

00:18:27

operational there will probably be a pause, but

00:18:31

last week

00:18:32

Shoigu said that or ordered it

00:18:36

would be correct to say to intensify the

00:18:38

offensive in all directions, I don’t

00:18:40

know what directions they look like, but

00:18:43

in fact, Putin said

00:18:44

that the operational pause is over, what does this

00:18:48

mean and what do you think? what

00:18:51

is happening on the fronts, does this mean the

00:18:53

end of an operational pause and how do you

00:18:56

think events may develop in the near future? I will

00:18:59

repeat based on

00:19:01

what is happening now on the fronts,

00:19:04

in fact, the situation that is

00:19:08

now

00:19:10

on the fronts of the Ukrainian-Russian war

00:19:16

as an operational pause was introduced into everyday life is so

00:19:20

wide everyday life our colleagues from some

00:19:26

Western

00:19:28

analytical centers, in particular the

00:19:31

study of war, British

00:19:34

some expert organizations,

00:19:39

I didn’t think that it could

00:19:43

be called an operational pause, but

00:19:46

after the capture of the

00:19:49

Ghanaian, Shoigu said on TV that the

00:19:55

catchers needed to rest,

00:19:58

this was interpreted as a real

00:20:06

suspension of hostilities on the fronts

00:20:09

per hour in the eastern direction, in fact, the

00:20:17

level of combat activity both in

00:20:21

the east and in the south

00:20:24

from the moment of the capture of Lisichansk did not

00:20:27

decrease, and indeed,

00:20:30

both our military and the

00:20:33

Russians at

00:20:35

some point carried out a

00:20:38

gradation of bloodless units from the

00:20:41

first line of defense from the front end and

00:20:45

replacements with more

00:20:47

vintage units is one aspect, and the

00:20:52

second aspect of the

00:20:53

operational pause is due to the action of the

00:20:55

Ukrainian artillery, in fact,

00:21:00

our new multiple launch rocket systems and

00:21:06

rocket systems and heavy artillery

00:21:10

that came one of the weapons of the

00:21:12

Ukrainian armed forces, they caused

00:21:16

significant damage to the

00:21:18

logistics chains of the Russians,

00:21:22

the supply of ammunition,

00:21:26

fuels and lubricants

00:21:29

were caused attacks on the control points of the

00:21:32

Russian army and in fact

00:21:35

they led to the fact that the strategy and

00:21:39

scorched earth tactics that the

00:21:42

Russians used during the assault on

00:21:45

Severodonetsk and Lisichansk and it

00:21:47

turned out to be untenable,

00:21:50

now they cannot

00:21:54

act on this scam, they

00:21:57

have to rebuild

00:21:59

their logistics support system on the fly and

00:22:02

accordingly, the tactics of use,

00:22:05

but this is the only reason for the so-

00:22:08

called operational pause to the front,

00:22:12

now the

00:22:14

Russians are giving up, roughly speaking,

00:22:17

trying to resume the offensive,

00:22:22

as far as they can

00:22:26

say it’s hard because

00:22:29

our armed forces continue to

00:22:32

inflict

00:22:33

very noticeable damage

00:22:36

[music]

00:22:37

to the rear and

00:22:39

so far the

00:22:45

Russians have not come up with a strategy on how to avoid this before Shoigu

00:22:48

said there that now they will be the main

00:22:52

task of the armed forces of the Russian

00:22:53

Federation, there is also

00:22:56

the search for the destruction of the high leopards,

00:23:01

if this is the main task, then the high leopards are

00:23:06

firmly populated does not mean our practice is

00:23:09

very

00:23:12

then allow me a few additional

00:23:15

questions, but

00:23:17

if there is a study of the war in which you already

00:23:19

recalled, he said wrote that Moscow

00:23:23

is now focusing not on the Slavs,

00:23:26

but rather on the north ski & boch mute this

00:23:28

changes something in reading the military

00:23:32

operations for me

00:23:35

a little bit

00:23:37

the situation is not so sea in reality after

00:23:40

even before taking

00:23:43

Lisichansk Severodonetsk, in principle, here is

00:23:47

Slavyansk Lisichansk banged they

00:23:50

formed such a triangle between the

00:23:53

two main directions of the

00:23:57

enemy’s attack from the

00:23:59

north to Slavyansk from the south will swell and the

00:24:04

frontal attack of

00:24:07

Severodonetsk

00:24:09

Vysochyny now

00:24:12

our troops who defended Lisichansk

00:24:15

have retreated to Seversk and a

00:24:21

small town, but it is important

00:24:24

solely because it is a

00:24:26

junction railway station and the

00:24:34

railway direction of Seversk Slavyansk Seversk

00:24:39

bakhmut

00:24:42

mushrooms is

00:24:44

very but would have key importance for ensuring the

00:24:48

attackers

00:24:49

and

00:24:53

whether the

00:24:56

enemy offensive will be

00:24:58

struck from the south through the bahnut

00:25:02

or will be launched from the north from the

00:25:06

Iranian direction

00:25:09

depends on where the enemy can

00:25:14

achieve success and then further

00:25:18

develop it, in principle, the enemy’s task if

00:25:24

I see correctly this is a way out of the will of not

00:25:27

comparing the

00:25:29

defense, access to the Konstantinovka Kramatorsk line

00:25:35

and the

00:25:37

liquidation of this ledge

00:25:41

can be called Siberian, but

00:25:45

please tell me now for the

00:25:48

Ukrainian troops the length of the front

00:25:51

has decreased or not because I

00:25:53

had to read several

00:25:55

analytical ones, there are also Western

00:25:57

military reviews and they insist that

00:26:00

since the front no has shrunk somewhat,

00:26:03

the Ukrainian has become easier to hold this

00:26:05

defense, I don’t know how it happens to

00:26:06

comment and what is interesting

00:26:09

or is it all quite

00:26:13

relative because indeed

00:26:15

the front where active hostilities are taking place is

00:26:19

very active on the front section as

00:26:23

a result of the smoothing of these cauldrons they

00:26:28

reduce the line of contact

00:26:31

and shorten sectors and

00:26:33

this can be good for both the

00:26:36

defenders and the attackers;

00:26:40

there is a double-edged sword; not the

00:26:44

breakthrough sector allows the

00:26:50

defenders to concentrate troops; the

00:26:54

area of the enemy’s possible offensive

00:26:56

is reduced; a

00:26:59

denser formation of troops can be

00:27:01

carried out and this depends on who will

00:27:04

take advantage of

00:27:06

this situation effectively, but it is necessary at the same time

00:27:13

understand that in fact,

00:27:16

military operations in the east, from the

00:27:19

point of view of military theory, can be

00:27:23

classified as practical

00:27:25

actions on a fairly small section of

00:27:29

the front,

00:27:31

rather small advances of

00:27:35

forces

00:27:37

proline breakthroughs

00:27:39

[music]

00:27:40

displacement

00:27:42

counter-strikes occur on a fairly

00:27:45

small area; in fact, the width

00:27:48

of the front between us and Russia is significant

00:27:51

more than ten times more than

00:27:56

those areas where kill is currently taking place,

00:27:59

very tough military clashes and in

00:28:04

all these areas from Nikolaev to

00:28:08

Chernigov, roughly speaking,

00:28:12

there is a

00:28:14

probability

00:28:16

of enemy actions and not only

00:28:19

the probability, if you carefully read, then

00:28:23

in the Chernigov world creatures in

00:28:25

the direction the enemy is

00:28:28

directly impacting

00:28:31

our forces and populated areas also

00:28:36

try from time to time

00:28:39

to carry out various provocations and

00:28:42

thus pull up a

00:28:45

very large part of the forces that could

00:28:49

be attracted to the

00:28:52

main directions of a strike or counter-strike

00:28:56

in these areas, to this we also need to

00:28:59

add their Belarusian direction, where the

00:29:02

same thing is happening,

00:29:05

it’s not clear what and

00:29:09

we are forced to keep quite

00:29:13

large groups there,

00:29:15

passive,

00:29:19

let’s talk a little bit, if you can, about it’s not

00:29:22

clear what’s wrong with Belarus because everywhere

00:29:26

on social networks Ukrainians are very actively

00:29:29

discussing that an offensive from

00:29:32

Belarus will be almost right

00:29:35

here last weekend, everyone was actively

00:29:38

discussing it just therefore, from your

00:29:42

point of view, is there really a

00:29:44

certain number of troops being formed there

00:29:46

or a

00:29:47

certain number of troops being concentrated for a

00:29:49

breakthrough, how quickly can Russia

00:29:51

strengthen these or strengthen these

00:29:53

Belarusian troops there that can make a

00:29:55

breakthrough, so I understand that we are

00:29:57

ready, we are waiting and about this is what the

00:30:01

military command says, and more than once, and

00:30:04

Minaev went there more than once to

00:30:06

check what was happening there, if

00:30:09

they read this and when they read that the naive went to

00:30:11

check, then the people are even more excited,

00:30:12

even more waiting for the troops to attack, not to

00:30:15

mention the local residents there, so

00:30:17

if possible, let’s talk a little

00:30:18

Let's talk about this, well,

00:30:20

besides the military-political components of

00:30:23

Lukashenko's statement, his war

00:30:26

leadership which, by the way, is very quarky

00:30:30

on the one hand, he

00:30:32

talks about the readiness of Belarus on the other

00:30:36

hand, they will immediately rule, they will keep their

00:30:40

backs, roughly speaking, they will cover their ass from

00:30:44

Belarus, that is, it

00:30:47

will be offensive or

00:30:49

defensive actions

00:30:50

to say It’s definitely very difficult after such statements,

00:30:56

so we’ll look at the

00:31:01

real signs. On the one hand, Russia has

00:31:04

not really stepped up transportation to the

00:31:07

direction of Belarus to the world region,

00:31:12

where they have

00:31:14

transferred almost an entire military base

00:31:17

where

00:31:21

strike

00:31:24

missile systems and

00:31:27

air defense systems and

00:31:31

transportation of

00:31:34

Russian transport aircraft are concentrated.

00:31:36

federations from Ivanovo from Tambov,

00:31:41

these settlements immediately indicate

00:31:43

that

00:31:45

most likely it was transported in this

00:31:49

direction, this is the army. I understand that,

00:31:52

firstly, these are deployment points for

00:31:56

large airborne and motorized rifle

00:31:59

units and the

00:32:02

transfer

00:32:04

of equipment and personnel is quite possible

00:32:10

before the air transfer, it is not so

00:32:13

massive maybe that’s why it’s too

00:32:30

early to say that some large Russian units are being created there, roughly equal to the Belarusian army or that unit of the group that the Russians had in Belarus in February and

00:32:33

perhaps it’s not even advisable, on the other

00:32:38

hand, the Belarusians are

00:32:41

constantly extending the jim which

00:32:44

everyone probably says at once every week

00:32:47

they constantly extend the timing of

00:32:50

their exercises, people were in Russia

00:32:53

with mobilization to soak up the militia,

00:32:56

this is also a

00:32:59

practice of

00:33:01

military affairs, this could be preparation

00:33:05

for war, or maybe just a demonstration

00:33:12

among seasonal controllers, such

00:33:18

indirect signs are supplies from

00:33:21

Belarus to Russia of

00:33:24

ammunition and

00:33:26

equipment, that is Belarus gives to Russia

00:33:31

as usual

00:33:34

before a war they don’t do their

00:33:37

reserves they don’t share that

00:33:40

is, there are signs of preparation for an

00:33:45

attack and signs that there

00:33:50

will be no attack and

00:33:52

we can say clearly

00:33:56

how the situation will develop Russian is

00:33:59

directed to a certain extent I think

00:34:02

this game

00:34:05

is to

00:34:07

keep our attention

00:34:10

on holding this grouping of forces

00:34:13

that we are forced to keep in the

00:34:15

Belarusian direction, despite the fact that the

00:34:17

Belarusians

00:34:19

or Russians from the territory of the Belarusians 10 are

00:34:22

most likely a union state, let's call

00:34:25

this so

00:34:27

their readiness at the slightest our sabin

00:34:30

to try to implement some

00:34:33

operational or tactical tasks from the

00:34:36

territory of Belarus to repeat so let’s say

00:34:40

February, and

00:34:42

Paul, that’s how much today and whether

00:34:47

we understand whether our Western partners understand

00:34:49

through these reconnaissance surveys and

00:34:52

satellite observations and much more,

00:34:54

if there is any understanding about some

00:34:57

reserves that Russia has

00:34:59

because, on the one hand, of course there are a lot

00:35:03

we can say that Russia cannot

00:35:05

try again not to attack from all

00:35:08

sides, and on the other hand, you need to understand

00:35:10

what their real capabilities are

00:35:13

because, for example, British intelligence

00:35:16

reports that even Wagner fcew

00:35:18

is starting to be staffed with some

00:35:22

former military personnel before they are staffed with people

00:35:24

who were convicted earlier and is

00:35:28

literally training them in a hurry in just a

00:35:31

month and is immediately preparing to send them

00:35:33

to the front, this is probably her dump, but in

00:35:35

many things, on the other hand,

00:35:37

we see that despite some

00:35:39

expectations, Putin

00:35:41

never showed up last week in general, mobilization

00:35:43

no matter what, but on the other hand, of

00:35:46

course, we read that supposedly now

00:35:49

such orders have been given for each

00:35:53

region to form so-called

00:35:55

volunteer battalions of four hundred

00:35:57

five hundred people in order to somehow participate in this

00:36:00

war, given on the other

00:36:01

hand there if you look how many are there

00:36:03

80 regions there 400 500 that's somewhere

00:36:07

up to 40,000 headquarters by and large, if you have

00:36:12

some understanding of what

00:36:14

opportunities there are in Russia today so that we can also

00:36:16

somehow understand what

00:36:19

you know during the Cold War period there have been 50

00:36:23

70 years in the world The

00:36:26

military developed a certain methodology for

00:36:29

assessing the military potential of countries,

00:36:32

which was used

00:36:35

theoretically by assessing the mobilization

00:36:38

resources of the resources of the armed forces and there

00:36:41

to take the

00:36:44

armies alive, roughly speaking, with the potential

00:36:48

in a certain order and everything would have been fine,

00:36:52

only the Russian-Ukrainian war

00:36:54

showed that

00:36:57

somehow it is going a little wrong

00:37:00

because according to this rating,

00:37:02

we would have been there for a day if

00:37:06

both the Americans and the British were confident in this,

00:37:08

and I think they would be out of

00:37:12

Russia’s sight, and

00:37:15

therefore it

00:37:25

seems to me that it is

00:37:29

no longer

00:37:31

advisable to evaluate the mobilization potential and military potential using the old patterns.

00:37:33

once developed and I’m not sure that

00:37:36

they will be really correct, they

00:37:39

can be tried, we do

00:37:41

n’t want to

00:37:43

try next time, as

00:37:47

for the

00:37:50

enemy forces, again, the estimates of our

00:37:56

Western analytical centers and it is not

00:38:00

considered that the Russians have 2 3 the

00:38:04

potential that they had in the first

00:38:07

attack on Ukraine In February, some

00:38:10

spent it and

00:38:12

[music]

00:38:14

replenishing it

00:38:16

will be possible, according to various estimates,

00:38:20

some write a long

00:38:23

period of up to 2 years, others

00:38:26

ask for less time for this, two months

00:38:30

give two months, by the way, here are two

00:38:34

months, these are very similar to the

00:38:36

gossip in the grain truce about

00:38:41

which supposedly Russia asked and in which

00:38:45

supposedly about Russia is very strong this

00:38:48

information is very necessary in principle

00:38:53

if they can recover in two

00:38:56

months

00:38:57

the principle is this will not be a grain

00:39:01

truce itself for everyone and

00:39:05

therefore it is very difficult to say

00:39:08

if they have the potential for a further

00:39:10

offensive

00:39:12

that

00:39:18

wagner sheep for example

00:39:20

begin

00:39:22

to be completed from the

00:39:25

conclusion that in general the involvement of these

00:39:28

Wagner structures

00:39:30

or

00:39:34

Kadyrov structures in the

00:39:36

conduct of active combat operations is such

00:39:39

know-how that

00:39:42

actually testifies to the weakness of the Russian

00:39:45

army;

00:39:46

if in the most

00:39:49

serious areas private so-

00:39:52

called kinete security structures are involved,

00:39:55

this indicates that these chips

00:39:58

Roughly speaking,

00:40:00

stronger than the Russian personnel, if the

00:40:04

vampire sheep are already starting to recruit

00:40:08

prisoners

00:40:10

from

00:40:12

before, at first there was information, it seems, from the

00:40:15

northern regions, we are following the hail,

00:40:18

now they are already saying turbo and the zone of the

00:40:22

Krasnodar Territory, in principle, this

00:40:25

already says that there is a

00:40:27

drop in the level of their potential and,

00:40:32

accordingly, what if the level of

00:40:34

potential armed 7 even lower than those of

00:40:38

these private

00:40:40

[music]

00:40:42

Utkin’s divine

00:40:46

armies, then

00:40:50

I’m not sure that they are capable of fortresses

00:40:54

in this way, some sufficient

00:40:56

number of

00:40:59

combat units, by the way, is this

00:41:04

Kremlin or not Kremlin, I don’t even

00:41:07

know, the terrorist Girkin

00:41:11

just recently also criticized

00:41:15

the Ministry of Defense of the Russian

00:41:16

Federation is

00:41:18

not introducing

00:41:20

full-scale implementation, well, it’s

00:41:24

hard to say what to motivate it, it is of

00:41:28

more interest to the FSB

00:41:31

Ministry of Defense, so

00:41:33

in Russia we can consider that there are two

00:41:38

visions for the

00:41:41

further

00:41:43

development of events;

00:41:45

this is a

00:41:48

continuation of this

00:41:51

operation,

00:41:54

trying to keep the

00:41:57

people in the dark about the war in Ukraine, although it seems to me that

00:42:01

even Russia is done they know that

00:42:04

Russia is waging war on Ukraine in the second,

00:42:10

this is

00:42:12

to force these people to

00:42:14

get off the couch and go to war from Ukraine

00:42:17

while the

00:42:22

prevailing opinion is that this will

00:42:26

probably be a questionnaire for the winter of Russia than

00:42:29

for us

00:42:31

Pavel and allow me, of course, the

00:42:33

last question and because this is the same

00:42:36

institute war wrote that, well, they

00:42:39

express such a hypothesis, they themselves

00:42:41

say that

00:42:44

I don’t know this hypothesis for sure, but they believe that Putin

00:42:46

ordered to take Kharkov, so you think

00:42:49

that this is generally

00:42:51

feasible, only hypotheses about which

00:42:54

can be taken out of the brackets and concern

00:42:57

you know in the

00:42:59

fourteenth year when Russia did not

00:43:02

invade in Crimea,

00:43:05

many energy centers said that

00:43:09

Putin’s goal is to

00:43:12

capture Kharkov,

00:43:15

Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye,

00:43:20

Kherson and Nikolaev and Odessa

00:43:23

in 2022,

00:43:26

it turned out that he

00:43:29

actually partially

00:43:34

achieved these goals, well, for now,

00:43:37

I think not for long,

00:43:40

but nevertheless,

00:43:43

he captured most of the Ukrainian territory

00:43:45

and I don’t think that most likely

00:43:50

plans to capture and embankment part of Ukraine

00:43:56

existed exist and will

00:43:58

exist, and

00:44:02

whether

00:44:07

the center of events will continue to move

00:44:11

in the Kharkov direction will

00:44:13

depend on how we

00:44:15

confront the

00:44:17

enemy in the east, on how we

00:44:21

confront and, by the

00:44:25

way, in the south, after there

00:44:32

was talk about new powerful X Mercs,

00:44:36

most of the Black Sea fleet from

00:44:38

Sevastopol did not move towards the

00:44:41

city of Novorossiysk,

00:44:43

this says another

00:44:45

interesting game:

00:44:49

maybe Putin wants to take Kharkov or maybe

00:44:52

hand it over to Sapphire, this is good

00:44:55

news by the way, yes, this is the same

00:44:58

interesting At the moment, I also read

00:44:59

some random Russian public pages, and

00:45:01

even there they wrote that, by and large,

00:45:04

Crimea is a Ukrainian territory,

00:45:06

generally recognized by the world as a state of Ukrainian

00:45:07

territory, so we can safely

00:45:08

use our wonderful hammers and

00:45:11

now they are already ours there in relation to

00:45:13

some - then the Crimean military bases there, I

00:45:16

understand correctly, but the Crimean ones are also there,

00:45:18

you can also understand that it’s also not very

00:45:20

far away, so somehow, maybe

00:45:22

we could take care of it, the

00:45:24

Minister of Defense of Ukraine after a meeting with

00:45:27

his American counterpart where

00:45:29

issues such as use were discussed

00:45:31

hammers from the use of weapons,

00:45:34

ways of the possibility of using weapons on

00:45:37

the territory of the Russian Federation, the

00:45:40

Americans actually

00:45:43

asked not to use

00:45:46

weapons

00:45:49

produced in the states of weapons on the

00:45:51

territory of the Russian Federation, but in response to the argument on

00:45:56

Crimea,

00:45:57

the American colleague said that he

00:46:00

understands our position based on what

00:46:07

the American said, in principle, the Russians can

00:46:12

interpret the

00:46:14

position of our partners how they like it

00:46:17

and I think Ukrainian eyebrows and

00:46:21

interpret as we need

00:46:24

as required

00:46:28

paul thank you very much thank you for

00:46:31

being with us today for finding time for us

00:46:33

we are very glad thank you for this

00:46:37

led kitcha was in touch with us today

00:46:40

for which we are very grateful and of course

00:46:41

grateful to you our sponsors on the

00:46:43

patreon platform, stay tuned

00:46:48

[music]

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https://www.patreon.com/ukrlife - Поддержите UKRLIFE.TV! Военный эксперт, руководитель проектов по безопасности Центра глобалистики «Стратегия ХХІ» Павел Лакийчук в своём интервью Ukrlife.TV рассказал о ходе войны в Украине на 19 июля и рассказал об оперативной обстановке на разных направлениях, в том числе угрозах из Беларуси. Интервью провела Людмила Немиря. Если вам понравилось это видео, ставьте лайк и подписывайтесь на нас: в YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TVUKRLIFE в Telegram: https://t.me/tvukrlife в Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser в Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser в Twitter: https://twitter.com/UkrlifeTV UKRLIFE.TV - это события политики, экономики и культуры в комментариях экспертов, аналитиков, общественных активистов, журналистов, действующих лиц украинской жизни. Вы можете помочь нашему каналу из любой страны мира, используя эту ссылку: https://privatbank.ua/sendmoney?payment=3de4a038f3 или став нашим "патроном" на https://www.patreon.com/ukrlife По вопросам сотрудничества с нашим каналом обращайтесь на е-мейл: [email protected] Редакция может не разделять мнений, выраженных гостями.

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