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Subtitles
Russian
00:00:02
the big news today in the Russian media00:00:06
is the meeting between President Putin00:00:10
of Russia and North Korea's leader Kim00:00:14
Jong-un which is currently taking place00:00:17
in the Far East in fact as I understand00:00:19
it's just just ended before I get to00:00:22
that I think it's important to discuss00:00:25
some news some more information that's00:00:29
been trickling out from the00:00:33
um battlefields in Ukraine and the big00:00:36
story this morning is that after several00:00:40
weeks in which we stopped seeing00:00:44
Ukrainian attacks with Storm Shadow00:00:47
missiles taking place00:00:49
um to any particular degree last night00:00:53
Ukraine launched one big attack with00:00:57
cruise missiles I'm going to say in a00:01:00
moment why I think that they were00:01:01
probably the French scalp missiles00:01:04
rather than the British storm Shadows00:01:07
but anyway00:01:08
with cruise missiles against a Russian00:01:12
ship repair facility in sevastopol in00:01:16
Crimea00:01:17
and we have this INF statement from the00:01:21
Russian defense Ministry which provides00:01:23
us uh with some details as to what00:01:26
happened last night the Ukrainian00:01:28
military fired 10 cruise missiles of the00:01:32
Ship Repair plant named after Sergey or00:01:34
Johnny kids in sevastopol and three00:01:38
uncrewed boats these are these sea00:01:41
launch drones are the Detachment of00:01:44
Black Sea Black Sea Fleet ships00:01:47
on a sea crossing the air defense00:01:51
systems shot down seven cruise missiles00:01:54
the patrol ship vasili beakoff destroyed00:01:58
all the unmanned boats two ships under00:02:02
repair were damaged by the enemy cruise00:02:04
missiles so that's what the Russian00:02:07
defense Ministry is telling us now there00:02:10
have been a lot of other reports00:02:12
mostly I have to say as always from00:02:16
Russian sources they give a few more00:02:18
details they say that out of the seven00:02:20
cruise missiles that were shot down five00:02:24
were shot down by the Panzer00:02:27
um Point defense system one was shot00:02:30
down by an S 400 long range crew uh long00:02:34
range air defense system in Crimea and00:02:39
interestingly one was shot down by a00:02:42
mig-31 fighter jet now I've seen a short00:02:45
while but I think that is interesting00:02:47
but anyway to proceed three got through00:02:51
and those three managed to reach this00:02:55
ship repair facility in sevastopol and00:03:01
according to the Russian defense00:03:02
Ministry00:03:04
they caused damage to two Russian ships00:03:09
we are not provided with any details as00:03:14
to which ships these were00:03:17
but00:03:20
rumors say00:03:22
that one was an amphibious Landing ship00:03:25
an amphibious landing craft and one was00:03:28
a submarine how extensive the damage was00:03:32
we don't know we also know the 24 people00:03:36
were injured in this attack though it00:03:39
seems that nobody was killed now in00:03:42
terms of the cruise missile attack this00:03:44
was from a Ukrainian point of view a00:03:47
successful attack00:03:49
maybe seven of their missiles failed to00:03:53
get through but three did and they did00:03:56
damage and quite possibly significant00:04:00
damage there's even some suggestions00:04:02
that the two ships that the Russian00:04:05
defense Ministry say were damaged are in00:04:08
fact write-offs in which case the loss00:04:10
of the submarine would be a serious loss00:04:13
for the Russian Fleet having said that I00:04:17
want to say again these are rumors and00:04:20
we can't say with certainty00:04:23
that that is actually the case now00:04:26
what00:04:29
cruise missiles were used in this attack00:04:33
now there's some reports at the moment00:04:36
which say that these were attackums00:04:38
missiles these were actually the00:04:41
attacker's American supersonic missiles00:04:43
that we've been hearing so much about00:04:47
um that he's not what the Russian00:04:48
defense Ministry is telling us00:04:52
we haven't been told by the Russian00:04:55
defense Ministry what sort of missiles00:04:58
we used I think it is unlikely that they00:05:02
were the attackers though there are00:05:04
rumors circulating and were already00:05:08
circulating before this attack took00:05:10
place that these attackers missiles that00:05:14
attackers missiles have already been00:05:16
supplied to Ukraine but as I said rumors00:05:19
to that effect have been circulating but00:05:21
they've not been been confirmed00:05:25
there are however lots of reports that00:05:29
these cruise missiles that attack this00:05:31
repair facility in sevastopol00:05:35
were air launched by suhoi 2400:05:40
um Ukrainian bombers now to my knowledge00:05:44
the attackums is not an air launched00:05:46
system if Sukhoi 24s were indeed the00:05:51
launch vehicle for these particular00:05:53
missiles cruise missiles then that would00:05:57
certainly say suggest that they were00:05:59
either storm Shadows or conceivably00:06:02
scalp missiles now why do I think that00:06:05
they are more likely to be scalp00:06:07
missiles briefly I get the sense that00:06:11
Ukraine has run through its inventory of00:06:14
storm Shadows they've not been a great00:06:17
success it also seems to me that the00:06:20
Russians have managed00:06:22
also it seems to me to destroy00:06:25
part of Ukraine's stockpile of storm00:06:29
shadows in their own attacks on00:06:32
Ukrainian Warehouse facilities we were00:06:35
hearing some reports a short time ago00:06:38
that France was sending reports00:06:42
suggested around 40 scalp missiles to00:06:45
Ukraine perhaps more we shouldn't take00:06:47
these numbers especially seriously00:06:51
and00:06:53
scalp missiles are very similar to the00:06:57
British storm Shadows the they were00:07:00
developed together with a Storm Shadow00:07:04
in a single anglo-french missile program00:07:08
but they do have rather different00:07:10
guidance systems and I suspect that one00:07:14
of the reasons why these three missiles00:07:17
got through is because they are a00:07:19
novelty for the Russians the guidance00:07:21
systems being slightly different or00:07:23
being actually quite different the00:07:26
Russians haven't yet fully worked out00:07:29
how to respond to them and I suspect00:07:32
that was partly the reason why these00:07:34
three cruise missiles got through now00:07:38
the other interesting fact about this00:07:41
attack is that one of these missiles00:07:43
according to reports00:07:45
not Russian Ministry of Defense reports00:07:49
but Russian reports which seem reliable00:07:53
is it one of these missiles were shot00:07:55
down by a Russian mig-31 fighter jet now00:08:00
the mig-30 ones00:08:03
are best known00:08:05
in this conflict00:08:08
for launching kinjal hypersonic00:08:13
missiles at Targets in Ukraine00:08:19
however the mig-31 was first developed00:08:23
by the Soviet Union in the 1970s00:08:27
specifically with the job of shooting00:08:30
down00:08:32
um cruise missiles subsonic stealthy00:08:37
cruise missiles flying at low altitudes00:08:42
close to the ground00:08:45
the Soviets were very worried in the00:08:47
1970s about the American development of00:08:51
the tomahawk cruise missile system and00:08:54
the mig-31 with its very powerful radar00:08:57
and very Advanced missiles was developed00:09:00
was developed specifically to counter00:09:05
American cruise missiles00:09:08
and00:09:09
it seems as if the Russians00:09:13
perhaps in anticipation00:09:16
of the arrival of the attacker's00:09:18
missiles00:09:19
and perhaps also to supplement their air00:09:22
defenses in Crimea and other places are00:09:27
now Fielding more mc31 fighter jets to00:09:31
counter a potential cruise missile00:09:34
threat and these mig-31s have of course00:09:38
been repeatedly updated since the 1970s00:09:43
when they were first designed the radar00:09:46
will have been updated significantly and00:09:50
the mig-31 now has00:09:52
a new more advanced missiles than it did00:09:57
back in the 1970s and 1980s but it is00:10:02
still an extremely effective00:10:06
cruise missile Interceptor and that its00:10:10
assigned role now the fact that one was00:10:12
used00:10:14
is probably a precursor or more of them00:10:17
being deployed to the battlefronts over00:10:21
the next few weeks and the Russians have00:10:26
a00:10:27
significant inventory of mig-31s00:10:32
and it's likely this I said that we will00:10:34
be seeing more of them being used in00:10:37
this way over the battlefronts and I00:10:40
suspect that they will also be used00:10:42
to defeat the attackers missiles when00:10:45
they appear now Brian bulletik has00:10:48
discussed at length in his latest00:10:51
program the uh00:10:54
attackers missile he's talked a lot both00:10:58
about his capabilities and its00:11:01
limitations he is far more knowledgeable00:11:03
about this00:11:06
um00:11:07
missile than I am and I'm little to add00:11:10
to what he says I agree with him that it00:11:14
is not going to be a game changer00:11:17
but I will say that it does have one00:11:20
advantage over the storm shadows and the00:11:25
Scout missiles and the Taurus missiles00:11:27
that Ukraine hopes to get from Germany00:11:32
and that is that it is a supersonic00:11:36
ground launched missile00:11:39
the Russians can to some extent at least00:11:42
keep track of Ukrainian aircraft00:11:46
launches they apparently are able to00:11:49
monitor00:11:52
when Ukrainian aircraft take off from00:11:55
Ukrainian airfields00:11:58
they're able to keep track of that at00:11:59
least at a great extent and that gives00:12:02
them some advanced warning when these00:12:06
missiles these air launch missiles the00:12:09
storm shadows and the scouts and before00:12:13
long the tourist missiles appear00:12:16
but the attackers is a grind ground00:12:20
launch missile and it is much more00:12:23
difficult to track launch points of00:12:27
ground launch missiles00:12:29
and of course they can be hidden in00:12:31
words and forests and00:12:34
perhaps even in built up locations so00:12:38
it's much more difficult to keep track00:12:41
of where these missiles are and of00:12:43
course the fact that they're supersonic00:12:45
means that once they're launched the00:12:49
reaction time in dealing with them is00:12:51
much shorter00:12:52
so I've seen some people suggested00:12:56
because they're Supersonic and they fly00:12:59
at higher altitudes than the storm00:13:02
shadows and the scalp missiles and the00:13:05
tourist Mission missiles that that makes00:13:07
them in some ways an easier Target for00:13:10
the Russian air defense system00:13:13
I think this is not actually fully true00:13:17
I think that there are challenges00:13:20
involved with the attackers missiles00:13:23
which are different from those that the00:13:26
storm shadows and the scalps and the00:13:29
Taurus missiles represent00:13:32
I'm not saying that the Russians won't00:13:34
find ways to counter those missiles but00:13:38
I think it's something that people need00:13:39
to bear in mind now in a conflict like00:13:43
this it is inevitable that sometimes00:13:47
missiles will get through it's possible00:13:51
as I said that if these uh missiles were00:13:55
scalp missiles with a slightly different00:13:57
guidance system from the storm Shadows00:13:59
that the Russians weren't quite ready00:14:01
for that and that might have explained00:14:03
some of the reasons why in this00:14:07
particular case the air defense was less00:14:10
successful00:14:11
it could also be that after the weeks00:14:16
when there were no cruise missile00:14:18
attacks at all the Russians were caught00:14:21
belittle of their God00:14:23
but one way or the other I expect that00:14:27
the Russians will get on top of this00:14:30
problem as they have repeatedly in the00:14:33
past this attack might have inflicted00:14:37
real damage especially if a submarine00:14:40
was hit and destroyed if it really was00:14:44
destroyed00:14:46
but it is not going to change the00:14:49
outcome of the war it's not even going00:14:51
to affect the outcome of the war to any00:14:55
significant degree and I think this is00:14:57
something that needs to be understood00:15:00
and internalized even if the attackers00:15:04
missiles00:15:06
are launched against the Kirch Bridge00:15:08
even if they succeed in doing00:15:10
significant damage to the courage Bridge00:15:13
even if they destroy the Kirch Bridge00:15:16
which is not impossible but I would have00:15:18
thought extremely difficult to do it00:15:21
will not in the end change the outcome00:15:24
of the wall the wall is not going to be00:15:27
one by a small number of missiles00:15:31
however effective they are being00:15:34
launched by Ukraine against Russian00:15:37
targets00:15:38
especially given the fact that Russian00:15:42
attacks on Ukrainian positions are so00:15:46
much more powerful and by the way last00:15:49
night there were lots of reports of very00:15:52
very heavy Russian missile and drone00:15:55
strikes especially on the West Bank of00:15:59
the NEPA in Hearthstone region I don't00:16:02
have many details so I'm not going to00:16:04
discuss that at any length in this00:16:06
program00:16:08
that the small number of missiles00:16:11
a few light drones they can cause damage00:16:15
they can cause death and injury they00:16:19
won't change the outcome of the war00:16:21
now I'm going to move on00:16:25
there's much more no doubt to say about00:16:27
this particular attack I'm sure we'll be00:16:30
hearing lots more reports over the next00:16:32
few hours the Western media so far is00:16:36
not really woken up to what happened00:16:38
we'll see when we get more reports what00:16:41
more to say about the events that took00:16:45
place over the last few hours and about00:16:47
this specific attack and as I said also00:16:51
that if we start to see more mig-31s00:16:54
appearing in the Skies over Ukraine that00:16:59
will be an interesting development and00:17:01
perhaps an effective one in defending00:17:04
against00:17:05
these missiles my guess is by the way00:17:08
that the mig-31s are not being deployed00:17:12
to counter the storm shadows and the00:17:15
scalps00:17:16
I think that the fact that there's one00:17:18
mig-31 operating in the kind of way as I00:17:21
said that this aircraft was originally00:17:23
designed for is a sign that the Russians00:17:26
are now starting to deploy mig-31s00:17:30
in anticipation of the arrival of the00:17:34
attackers missile it will be in more00:17:38
effective counter to the attackers than00:17:42
some of the other systems the Russians00:17:44
have been successfully using up to this00:17:46
point anyway that's all I get to say00:17:49
about this particular incident now00:17:52
we have had also lots of reports about00:17:56
renewed Ukrainian attacks yesterday00:18:00
on the front lines in Ukraine there were00:18:04
more attacks00:18:06
area there was apparently other attacks00:18:10
and the vremifica Salient that was00:18:12
intense fighting around this00:18:16
obliterated Village of clichev clashafka00:18:21
near00:18:22
umut00:18:25
there were some reports over the course00:18:28
of yesterday of the ukrainians making00:18:31
some advances especially in the area00:18:34
between arabotino and verbovoye00:18:38
the key thing to say is that at the end00:18:41
of the day00:18:42
and certainly by this morning00:18:44
the front lines appear to have been00:18:47
exactly where they were before these00:18:51
attacks began Ukraine launched its00:18:54
attacks again the attacks were carried00:18:57
out largely by light Infantry00:19:01
trying to walk through minefields00:19:03
approach Russian fortifications there is00:19:07
a rather00:19:08
astonishing and even harrowing account00:19:11
of the fighting in the uh00:19:14
verbovoye area by Alexander hodakovsky00:19:19
who is as I said a commander of the00:19:23
vostok Regiment of the00:19:26
um00:19:27
uh um Don bass uh militia the donuts00:19:31
militia00:19:32
but00:19:33
hodakowski went to this area I think00:19:36
this is separately from this attack but00:19:38
he spoke about a landscape liters with00:19:42
the carcasses of burnt out Ukrainian00:19:45
vehicles and he said that the pattern of00:19:50
its Ukrainian attacks now is that they00:19:53
try to show Russian trenches with00:19:56
artillery fire he says that for every00:19:58
one00:20:00
proper shell that they use unitary shell00:20:03
that they use they now use two cluster00:20:06
munitions it gives us some idea of00:20:10
the balance of00:20:12
shells it seems to me and then they00:20:14
launched the00:20:16
light infantry basically running towards00:20:19
the Russian positions hoping to reach00:20:22
them quickly this is very similar to00:20:25
what00:20:28
um Ron balletic said months ago about00:20:32
the tactics that the U.S had developed00:20:35
in order to defeat the Russian Battalion00:20:39
tactical group with its Heavy Artillery00:20:42
that you try to rush rapidly towards00:20:47
the Russians hoping to get through00:20:53
pierce the artillery00:20:57
umbrella behind which the Russians00:20:59
operate00:21:01
eventually arrive at the trenches00:21:03
extraordinary amount of fighting that00:21:06
takes place hand to hand fighting00:21:07
briefly takes place at the trenches00:21:11
Kowski suggests that on far more00:21:14
occasions than not the ukrainians are00:21:17
repelled00:21:19
eventually they bring out more troops00:21:21
they repeat the whole exercise they00:21:24
attack again00:21:26
and again and again00:21:28
eventually sometimes the Russian00:21:31
fortified positions are completely00:21:34
destroyed the Russians then pull back as00:21:38
they've done in robotino but it seems by00:21:42
only a few meters00:21:44
and the whole cycle repeats itself00:21:48
anyway the key thing to say is that this00:21:52
seems to have been another such day00:21:54
yesterday00:21:56
and the outcome of all of this is that00:22:00
at the end of the day the Ukrainian00:22:03
forces were left essentially where00:22:06
they'd started the Russians still00:22:08
control the Heights and the robotino00:22:10
verbovia area Ukraine has failed to00:22:14
break through and capture verbal year00:22:16
most of her abortino remains in the gray00:22:20
Zone in other words it's controlled by00:22:22
neither side the same truth seems to be00:22:25
the same seems to be true of clecher the00:22:28
Ukraine has made no breakthroughs no00:22:31
significant advances it's offensive for00:22:35
the West in piattihadki has come to a00:22:38
total stop the same seems to be the case00:22:41
in the area of the vermouth salient00:22:46
and yesterday I talked about a Ukrainian00:22:50
attack00:22:52
in the of day of area towards a village00:22:55
called opinion00:22:57
and00:22:58
reports coming through00:23:01
over the course of the Day suggested00:23:04
that that attack ended in complete00:23:07
disaster that a battalion a whole00:23:11
Battalion of Ukrainian Marines was00:23:14
deployed to carry out that attack00:23:17
and that 80 of these uh men from this00:23:20
Battalion that's perhaps the fifth00:23:25
of the whole total of the battalion00:23:28
anyway 80 of them00:23:30
were either killed or wounded00:23:33
and the Battalion has been so severely00:23:36
affected that it had to be withdrawn00:23:39
back and reconstituted00:23:43
um in the rear so that the opinion00:23:46
attack seems to have ended in a complete00:23:49
debacle00:23:51
and that remains now the pattern as I00:23:55
said in the going weeks of this00:23:58
offensive before the Autumn Reigns and00:24:02
the mud conditions start to close in00:24:08
anyway00:24:10
there's been00:24:12
a new00:24:14
certap from00:24:16
Citra from simplicious The Thinker00:24:21
and is made lots of comments he's00:24:25
extrapolated00:24:27
the scale of Ukrainian losses00:24:30
from00:24:32
an admission by a Ukrainian soldier of00:24:35
the losses of the 47th mechanized00:24:38
Brigade00:24:40
which is one of the elite brigades00:24:42
trained by the um00:24:46
Ukrainian military in the west you00:24:49
received Western training there it was00:24:51
the Brigade that received most of the00:24:53
Bradleys and the leopard's twos and00:24:58
which carried out the big attacks in00:24:59
June anyway00:25:01
um00:25:05
is the Thinker00:25:07
has made the point that a Ukrainian00:25:11
Soldier00:25:13
says that Ukraine the 47th Brigade00:25:18
suffers losses00:25:21
of00:25:22
13 killed in action00:25:25
and 63 wounded every day00:25:30
since the offensive began00:25:33
and that would come out at about00:25:37
according to simplicious the Thinker00:25:40
he's worked it out it would be00:25:43
consistent with00:25:46
1170 killed in action00:25:49
for this specific Brigade00:25:52
since the start of the offensive on the00:25:55
4th of June and he's pointed out that00:25:58
this is consistent with a report that00:26:02
has been provided that00:26:04
the brigades casualties this is a report00:26:07
that appeared in Germany that the00:26:09
Brigade casualties run into four figures00:26:13
and as simple as The Thinker has00:26:16
correctly pointed out this brigade00:26:19
probably started with a force of around00:26:22
4 000 men00:26:24
and00:26:26
it's been00:26:28
utterly devastated00:26:30
anyway00:26:35
extrapolate to this00:26:37
and he says this he says extrapolate00:26:40
those 13 killed in action per day losses00:26:43
to the 10 to 15 brigades operating just00:26:46
on the western robotino France then add00:26:50
the Donetsk Bachmann France star omayosk00:26:54
and kupian's front and it come easily00:26:57
comes to 500 to 1000 killed in action00:27:01
per day that's for the Ukrainian00:27:03
military now00:27:06
I think that that again00:27:08
may be going too far it seems to me that00:27:13
the 47th mechanized Brigade has probably00:27:16
suffered heavier losses than most other00:27:20
Ukrainian brigades have suffered over00:27:23
the course of the fighting it was00:27:25
particularly badly damaged in the June00:27:29
fighting so it's likely that it suffered00:27:32
a heavier loss rate than any other00:27:34
Brigade participating Ukrainian Brigade00:27:37
participating in this offensive00:27:40
but the Ukraine is suffering very heavy00:27:44
losses indeed probably in the hundreds00:27:46
of men killed00:27:48
every day well they've been multiples of00:27:53
reports now in the western media which00:27:56
effectively confirm as March00:28:00
but then simply Kiss The Thinker makes a00:28:04
far more interesting and in some ways00:28:07
suggestive point and he says that00:28:10
Russia on the other hand has been00:28:14
suffering the lowest killed in action00:28:16
spread of the entire War thus far the00:28:21
latest the latest from media Zona which00:28:25
meticulously tracks obituaries and then00:28:28
he has the graph00:28:31
and uh from media Zona and that shows us00:28:36
gives us a picture of media zonas track00:28:41
of Russian losses and bear in mind that00:28:45
this is based on00:28:47
carefully prepared information based on00:28:50
obituary notices00:28:53
um funerals those kinds of things media00:28:56
zoner is the organization that works00:28:59
together with the BBC to track Russian00:29:02
losses and I've said in the past that I00:29:06
have found their methodology to be sound00:29:09
and media's owners graph shows that the00:29:14
heaviest Russian losses00:29:17
were in March of last year February00:29:21
March last year that's to say in the00:29:24
first weeks of the special military00:29:25
operation00:29:27
and then there was another very big00:29:29
spike in the middle of the winter00:29:32
and that almost certainly we was00:29:35
connected with the00:29:42
um the start of the battle of Bahama the00:29:44
Ukrainian the Russian advances in the00:29:47
Backwoods area the capture of places00:29:50
like00:29:51
oh00:29:52
clichefficient and00:30:00
um all of these Paras kovieska and all00:30:04
these other Villages that we fought we00:30:06
saw uh take place it was also a Time by00:30:09
the way that the Russians launched an00:30:12
unsuccessful attack towards rugulada00:30:16
but anyway there was a spike in Russian00:30:19
casualties in the middle of January of00:30:22
course many of these casualties00:30:24
would have been Wagner troops00:30:27
and um a lot of these casualties would00:30:30
have been convicts00:30:33
put together by the Wagner organization00:30:36
by pregosian brought into the Wagner00:30:39
organization by pregosian and sent into00:30:42
battle in the uh backwards area with00:30:46
only minimal training but anyway since00:30:50
that Peak00:30:52
in January00:30:56
Russian losses have steadily declined00:30:59
they remained according to media's owner00:31:03
very high00:31:05
throughout February March but00:31:09
witnessing a declining Trend this is00:31:12
whilst the fighting began was taking00:31:15
place in Bahamut itself00:31:18
then at the end of March they started to00:31:21
fall00:31:22
there was another Spike00:31:25
um in late April much lower Spike though00:31:28
in late April00:31:30
early May which is of course when the00:31:34
Battle of Batman ended00:31:36
then there was a fall00:31:38
then00:31:39
in the early days of the offensive00:31:42
Ukraine's offensive in June00:31:44
there was another Spike00:31:48
though again from a lower levels00:31:51
than at the time of the fall of Batman00:31:56
but then since then00:31:58
Russian killed in action numbers have00:32:02
dropped and dropped steadily and they00:32:07
are indeed at their lowest level00:32:11
since the start of the current conflict00:32:14
in February 2022 that is according to00:32:18
media's owner at the end of July and00:32:21
through August00:32:24
they have fallen00:32:26
fast00:32:27
and apparently over the course of00:32:30
September they have continued to fall00:32:34
and this was the Ukrainian offensive is00:32:39
underway00:32:40
and even as Ukrainian losses appear to00:32:44
be spiking00:32:45
now in a recent program I said that the00:32:48
state of the offensive the way in which00:32:51
the offensive is00:32:53
happening the00:32:56
at this particular time00:32:59
it's beginning to resemble more Killing00:33:02
Fields than anything else lightly armed00:33:05
Ukrainian troops marching or walking or00:33:10
running across the fields towards00:33:14
heavily defended Russian positions00:33:17
and being killed by Russian00:33:21
soldiers mostly contract soldiers00:33:24
professional soldiers00:33:26
in large numbers00:33:28
whilst00:33:30
themselves suffering00:33:33
far fewer losses00:33:35
and I'm afraid these figures for media00:33:38
Zona appear to confirm this picture it00:33:42
is a harrowing picture it is the reality00:33:45
also it seems to me of00:33:49
the war of the state of this current00:33:51
defensive00:33:52
it is give it gives us a sense00:33:55
of the reality of this offensive and of00:33:58
this war at this particular time Russian00:34:01
casualties are declining even as Russian00:34:05
numbers numbers of Russian troops are00:34:09
increasing00:34:11
Ukrainian losses by contrast Are00:34:15
Climbing00:34:17
and I noticed that the Ukraine's new00:34:21
defense minister is now talking00:34:24
apparently in all seriousness about00:34:26
Ukraine00:34:28
it would be good for Ukraine if boys are00:34:32
1600:34:33
were to enlist in the Ukrainian Army00:34:38
something which I have to say00:34:41
I find00:34:42
a chilling comment00:34:44
and00:34:46
Simplicity is the Thinker puts some00:34:48
figures on this it shows that for you00:34:51
August Ukraine is averaging 7000:34:53
casualties per week with September00:34:56
seeing even a fraction of that that's00:34:59
about 10 casualties per day they're00:35:02
picking up that's dead and wounded00:35:04
that's the entire Russian Armed Forces00:35:07
Ukraine is seeing more casualties from a00:35:12
single Battalion out of their 50 to 7000:35:14
remaining ones and he says it's a gulp00:35:18
smacking level of disparity00:35:20
and00:35:22
um it is in fact consistent uh simply is00:35:25
that the Thinker says with a ten to one00:35:28
kill rash ratio and he says Russians are00:35:31
literally this is the biggest thinkers00:35:33
words Russians are literally sitting00:35:35
back and shooting ducks in a barrel as00:35:38
Ukraine fruitlessly trucks across Open00:35:41
Fields and gets annihilated by artillery00:35:45
well they're not always even in trucks00:35:48
as I said sometimes they're having to00:35:51
run across the fields in the way that00:35:54
hodokowsky has described it is00:35:57
one of the most appalling Wars00:36:01
one of the most appalling situations00:36:04
when it was horrifying situations00:36:07
that I've ever heard of in war00:36:10
and it is going on day after day week00:36:14
after week and apparently00:36:17
Ukrainian00:36:19
political leaders00:36:21
and Western political leaders00:36:25
demand and expect00:36:28
that it must continue like that until00:36:31
the Autumn Reigns close in and make00:36:34
further advances impossible at which00:36:37
case it will be possible quietly to call00:36:41
the entire offensive off without00:36:44
admitting that it has failed now simply00:36:48
is the Thinker also goes into great00:36:49
detail about the fact that even as these00:36:52
Ukrainian losses are mounting Ukraine is00:36:57
also losing large numbers of men who are00:37:00
essentially giving themselves up to the00:37:02
Russians are letting themselves be taken00:37:05
prisoner well I've discussed that in00:37:08
previous programs I'm not going to00:37:10
revisit that topic and anyway that's the00:37:14
situation it seems to me on the00:37:16
battlefronts now there's been a lot more00:37:18
about the Russian mobilization00:37:21
um as I said Putin yesterday spoke about00:37:24
the fact that around 27000:37:27
00000:37:28
um men have00:37:30
signed contracts with the Russian00:37:32
military the Russian military is growing00:37:35
in size there's been a point made that00:37:38
this is the Russian professional00:37:40
long-term contract military and simplica00:37:44
is the Thinker and others are suggesting00:37:47
that the Russian plan isn't so much to00:37:51
increase the total size of their Army in00:37:54
Ukraine which currently stands at around00:37:56
420 000 according to Ukraine but rather00:38:01
to replace a lot of the reservists that00:38:04
were called up last year with full-time00:38:07
contract soldiers now that may very well00:38:10
be true it would be consistent with what00:38:13
the Russians are doing but if that is00:38:15
true00:38:16
then00:38:18
suggestions that the Russians are00:38:20
building up a million-man army to take00:38:23
the offensive over the next few months00:38:26
might be wrong it would suggest that the00:38:29
Russians still continue to00:38:32
seek to conduct an incremental00:38:36
attritional wall against Ukraine00:38:38
building up00:38:41
a highly professional regular army00:38:45
professional soldiers00:38:47
equal in size to the00:38:51
increasingly untrained or poorly trained00:38:54
and ragged contract uh uh sorry00:38:58
mobilized Army that Ukraine is00:39:00
scratching together00:39:02
and that the Russians intend to win that00:39:05
war in that way and that actually00:39:10
brings me00:39:12
to the big Topic in the news in Russia00:39:16
which is the meeting between Kim Jong-un00:39:20
and00:39:21
Vladimir Putin which has been taking00:39:24
place in the Far East00:39:26
now before I touch on that I would say00:39:30
that Kim Jong-un is not the only foreign00:39:34
visitor who Putin has met over the00:39:39
course of this visit he has also met00:39:43
the Chinese vice prime Vice premier00:39:49
this is a person who is primarily00:39:52
interested apparently in economic issues00:39:55
they discussed00:39:58
um economic cooperation between China00:40:01
and Russia they say that the target of00:40:04
200 billion dollars in total turnover00:40:08
trade is likely to be achieved this year00:40:13
and00:40:14
it's clear that even as China's00:40:18
trade and with many other countries is00:40:21
flagging00:40:23
China's trade with Russia is booming and00:40:27
from what I understand00:40:28
interestingly enough because of Russian00:40:31
oil exports and energy exports and00:40:36
perhaps exports of food and other things00:40:38
the trade is roughly in balance00:40:42
and a couple of months ago I saw that00:40:46
the Russians were running a small00:40:47
Surplus I'm not saying that is the case00:40:50
any longer but anyway that's that's the00:40:54
situation in economic00:40:56
relations between Russia and China00:41:00
I am fairly confident however that00:41:06
um Putin won't just have met with Zhang00:41:09
guad Singh simply to discuss economic00:41:13
issues he's probably taken this00:41:16
opportunity to brief the Chinese in00:41:19
person about the forthcoming meeting00:41:22
with Kim Jong-un00:41:24
in which the Chinese will be very00:41:26
interested and00:41:28
um he's also probably00:41:32
discussed his own forthcoming visit next00:41:35
month to China where he will of course00:41:38
be meeting with the shinping and that00:41:41
looks like being an important assignment00:41:42
meeting that is being prepared carefully00:41:47
by the Chinese and the Russians in00:41:50
advance so lots to keep an eye out there00:41:55
in Chinese Russian cooperation00:41:59
but in the meantime it is the meeting00:42:01
with Kim Jong-un which00:42:04
is attracting the attention now00:42:09
Putin took Kim Jong-un on a tour of the00:42:13
uh vastochny Cosmo drone the new Space00:42:17
Center that the Russians have built in00:42:19
the Far East00:42:21
this has been a colossal and very00:42:24
expensive program which in my opinion00:42:27
has drained funding out of the space00:42:30
program as a whole and which probably00:42:33
explains some of the difficulties that00:42:36
the Russians have had in their space00:42:38
programs recently but anyway vistauchny00:42:41
the project00:42:43
seems to have been brought finally to00:42:46
fruition space launches are now starting00:42:49
to take place from there on a reasonably00:42:52
regular basis the Russians are working00:42:56
to create new space Rockets like the00:42:59
angara which we will no doubt be seeing00:43:02
used more and of course it's also from00:43:05
vostochny that the Russians intend to00:43:08
start launching their new heavy lift00:43:10
systems misfortunately is a gigantic00:43:15
Space Center00:43:17
comparable in scale to baikonur which00:43:21
the Soviets developed in Kazakhstan and00:43:24
which by the way the Russians still have00:43:26
a lease on and still use extensively and00:43:30
I suspect00:43:32
will continue to use but of course00:43:35
vestortgeny is the more modern Space00:43:37
Center and00:43:40
um it's got all the modern facilities00:43:42
and00:43:44
putting aside the question of its cost00:43:47
and00:43:49
possible questions about whether it was00:43:54
a realistic or sensible investment00:43:59
the fact is it's built and it serves00:44:02
ozone marvelous showcase and indeed00:44:06
Putin was able to show00:44:08
Kim Jong-un00:44:10
the Space Center and he was able to00:44:14
show the Koreans the00:44:17
um00:44:19
sophisticated nature of the Space Center00:44:23
and we read this is from the kremlin's00:44:28
website Vladimir Putin met at the00:44:30
Versace cosmodrome with chairman of00:44:33
state affairs of the democratic People's00:44:36
Republic of Korea Kim Jong-un Kim00:44:38
Jong-un by the way does not have the00:44:41
title the president of North Korea of00:44:45
the democratic People's Republic of00:44:47
Korea nor did his father Kim Jong-il00:44:50
the title of President is still retained00:44:55
by Kim jong-un's now deceased00:44:58
long-deceased grandfather Camille song00:45:01
who was of course the founder of the00:45:04
democratic People's Republic of Korea00:45:07
anyway we read that the leaders00:45:11
inspected the facilities of the new00:45:13
cosmodrome the assembly shop or the00:45:15
launch vehicle of the angara space00:45:18
rocket complex the launch complex of the00:45:21
soyuz 2 space rocket complex the large00:45:24
complex under construction for the00:45:27
angara and the launch control center and00:45:32
Putin introduced00:45:36
Kim Jong-un00:45:38
to members of staff00:45:41
of the Ross Cosmos00:45:45
project and to the senior government00:45:49
officials in this area and he also00:45:54
apparently00:45:56
visited Putin himself visited a local00:46:00
school but anyway00:46:02
so this is obviously a showcase00:46:06
Putin showing00:46:08
Kim Jong-un showcase but of course it's00:46:12
also perhaps a pointer that the Russians00:46:15
and the North Koreans intend to00:46:17
cooperate in in future in space00:46:20
development and there's all that00:46:23
discussion recently00:46:25
about00:46:27
the Russians perhaps having provided00:46:30
North Korea with missile Technology00:46:33
based on an article00:46:36
by Theodore pastel comparing the00:46:41
topple M missile with a hy-song 1800:46:44
missile North Korean High song 18 misson00:46:48
it's been I think largely accepted that00:46:50
hostels article is flawed in many00:46:54
respects and that he may have jumped to00:46:57
all sorts of perhaps erroneous00:47:00
conclusions but anyway the long and the00:47:03
short of it is that it is likely that00:47:06
Russia and North Korea will be00:47:07
cooperating in space before long we00:47:10
could be seeing a North Korean cosmet00:47:13
Cosmonaut going up into space from00:47:16
restoration and of course if you want to00:47:19
Supply North Korea with00:47:24
missile technology or at least with00:47:27
access to missile technology then having00:47:31
them working alongside you00:47:33
in your space program might be a way to00:47:37
do it I'm not saying that's the plan but00:47:40
you know just saying and of course Kim00:47:43
Jong-un who is very interested in00:47:45
technological matters he came across00:47:48
suitably impressed there's pictures of00:47:51
him00:47:52
looking very intently at the complex the00:47:58
vistochni complex and you see him00:48:01
there's even a film the Kremlin has even00:48:03
provided a short film of their visit00:48:07
but of course it wasn't just a visit to00:48:09
the stochny that00:48:11
um took place they've also had detailed00:48:15
discussions and it's about those that00:48:18
don't now want to turn to and I think00:48:20
that I will speak firstly about what the00:48:26
Kremlin says each of them said now we00:48:29
are not going to have a press conference00:48:30
Kim Jong-un does not do press00:48:33
conferences but we have had their00:48:37
introductory comments and00:48:40
according to the Kremlin this is what00:48:43
Putin said Dear Mr chairman I'm very00:48:45
glad to see and welcome you again in00:48:47
Russia this time as we agreed at a00:48:50
vastochny cosmodrome we are proud of how00:48:53
this industry is developing here and00:48:55
this is our new facility I hope both you00:48:58
and your colleagues find this00:49:00
interesting00:49:02
but our meeting is taking place at a00:49:04
special time most recently the00:49:06
Democratic People's Republic of Korea00:49:09
celebrated 75 years of its creation and00:49:12
founding 75 years of establishing00:49:15
diplomatic relations between our00:49:18
countries let me remind you that it was00:49:21
our country that was first the first to00:49:24
recognize a sovereign independent state00:49:27
the Democratic People's Republic of00:49:31
Korea so Putin is telling Kim Jong-un00:49:35
that we consider you to be a fully00:49:39
legitimate Sovereign independent state00:49:44
in the west that is sometimes denied00:49:47
there's lots of claims that North Korea00:49:50
isn't a real state or country that it's00:49:52
some kind of00:49:55
Barracks entity ruled over by Kim00:50:00
Jong-un and his family00:50:03
Putin00:50:05
is00:50:06
saying we don't agree we consider you to00:50:10
be a fully legitimate state00:50:14
a part of the International Community of00:50:18
Nations and well that's not always said00:50:23
about North Korea but it's just been00:50:26
said by the Russians and then00:50:30
Putin went on to say this then very soon00:50:33
we will celebrate the seventh 70th00:50:37
anniversary of the end of the war of00:50:40
independence and the Victory of the00:50:43
Korean people in this war00:50:45
now I understand that's a reference to00:50:48
the Korean War what we in the west00:50:50
called the Korean War and you see that00:50:53
Putin is00:50:55
again reminding00:50:59
Kim Jong-un that the Soviet Union was a00:51:02
supporter and Ally of North Korea both00:51:07
in its fight against Japan00:51:10
and no doubt during the Korean War00:51:14
so once more00:51:16
um00:51:18
he is making that point this is a00:51:20
significant date because our country00:51:22
also helped our friends in the00:51:24
Democratic People's Republic of Korea00:51:27
fight for this Independence and of00:51:29
course in fact and in truth it was the00:51:32
red the Red Army played a significant00:51:34
role in00:51:37
driving out the Japanese from the00:51:40
territory of North Korea and then he00:51:42
went goes on to say we of course need to00:51:44
talk about issues of economic00:51:47
cooperation issues of a humanitarian00:51:50
nature and the situation in the region00:51:54
we have a lot of questions I want to say00:51:57
that I'm very glad to see you thank you00:52:00
for accepting the invitation and coming00:52:02
to Russia welcome now note00:52:05
he talks about economic cooperation00:52:09
issues of a humanitarian nature and the00:52:13
situation in the region the00:52:16
deteriorating situation in the North00:52:19
East Pacific where the United States00:52:21
plans to have joint exercises with South00:52:25
Korea and Japan and where it is trying00:52:28
to draw these two countries into an00:52:31
alliance against China00:52:33
and of course North Korea as well00:52:38
and again we see Putin00:52:43
quietly aligning the Russians with North00:52:47
Koreans and with the Chinese00:52:50
but note also that he makes no reference00:52:54
at all to military cooperation00:52:58
Western commentary has been full of00:53:01
stories about Russia importing shells00:53:06
from North Korea and providing the North00:53:09
Koreans in return with missile00:53:12
technology00:53:14
there's no hint of this in these00:53:16
comments00:53:18
anyway this is what Kim Jong-un said in00:53:22
response I expressed my gratitude to you00:53:25
for inviting us despite being busy with00:53:28
governmental Affairs our visit to Russia00:53:31
is taking place at a very important time00:53:33
and now the Russian side is receiving00:53:36
our delegation of the democratic00:53:38
People's Republic of Korea with a very00:53:41
warm feeling from the first moment we00:53:44
ride on Russian territory we could feel00:53:47
the sincerity of our Russian friends and00:53:50
on behalf of the entire Democratic00:53:53
People's Republic of Korea I express my00:53:57
gratitude to you and the people of the00:53:59
Russian Federation and I express my00:54:02
gratitude to you for paying such great00:54:05
attention to our visit to Russia00:54:09
we were also able to see with our own00:54:12
eyes the present and future of Russia in00:54:15
building a space power power and we are00:54:18
now holding a meeting with you at a very00:54:20
special time precisely in the heart of00:54:24
the space Power Russia as you said the00:54:28
Soviet Union played a very big role in00:54:30
The Liberation of our country00:54:32
as well as on our state gaining00:54:34
independence and our friendship has Deep00:54:38
Roots and now for our country the very00:54:41
first priority is relations with the00:54:45
Russian Federation00:54:47
so even more than China perhaps00:54:52
country with which Kim Jong-un himself00:54:55
has not always had an easy relationship00:54:58
but for Kim Jong-un China which of00:55:02
course is not yet00:55:04
at least sanctions to the extent that00:55:08
Russia is00:55:12
for North Korea00:55:15
the priority now00:55:17
is building up relations with Russia00:55:20
Russia can provide technology it can00:55:24
provide food fertilizer00:55:27
Machine Tools all kinds of things that00:55:30
North Korea needs to rebuild00:55:33
its civilian economy it's infrastructure00:55:37
based00:55:38
and of course the United States and the00:55:41
West might not be happy they might00:55:43
complain that some of this00:55:45
violates un sanctions so as I said00:55:49
already there are ways around that but00:55:52
with both00:55:54
North Korea and Russia heavily00:55:58
sanctioned what realistically can the00:56:02
West do and for the Chinese00:56:05
who obviously are most interested in the00:56:09
development of this relationship it00:56:12
makes sense for the Russians00:56:14
increasingly to carry the water with00:56:17
North Korea Russia has had a00:56:19
historically good relationship with00:56:21
North Korea there's never been the00:56:23
edginess that there has been on occasion00:56:27
in relations between North Korea and00:56:30
China00:56:31
one of Putin's first foreign visits a00:56:35
fact few people know one of his first00:56:38
foreign visits as president was in fact00:56:41
to North Korea where Putin met with00:56:45
Kim Jong-il00:56:46
Kim jong-un's father00:56:49
and00:56:52
Russia can provide North Korea with most00:56:56
of what it needs we will come very soon00:56:59
to what the Russians perhaps are looking00:57:01
to get from North Korea00:57:04
anyway Kim jong-dong then goes on to say00:57:07
this I'm sure that our joint meeting00:57:10
will be another moment to raise our00:57:12
relations to a new level as you just00:57:15
said we have a lot of issues to develop00:57:18
relations including politics economics00:57:22
and culture so that this will help00:57:26
improve the well-being of our peoples00:57:30
so again the emphasis is on economics00:57:35
Kim Jong-un wants to improve living00:57:39
standards in North Korea he wants to00:57:43
resolve once and for all North Korea's00:57:46
problems with food security and energy00:57:51
and00:57:52
Putin of all world leaders00:57:56
is perhaps best position from a resource00:58:00
standpoint to do that00:58:03
and then Kim Jong-un makes some00:58:06
statements about the conflict in Ukraine00:58:09
though he's careful not to speak of00:58:12
Ukraine00:58:13
now Russia has risen to a sacred00:58:15
struggle to defend its state sovereignty00:58:17
and protect its Security in opposition00:58:20
to the hegemonic forces that oppose00:58:24
Russia hegemonic forces of course refers00:58:27
to the United States00:58:29
and Kim Jong-un here is using a same00:58:34
label00:58:35
as the one that China uses00:58:39
and then Kim Jong-un goes on to say and00:58:41
now we want to further develop relations00:58:44
we have always supported and support all00:58:47
decisions of President Putin as well as00:58:50
decisions of the Russian government well00:58:53
that's hardly true the Russians in the00:58:56
past have00:58:59
following the lead of China voted from00:59:01
U.N sanctions against North Korea00:59:05
but anyway we can put that to my to one00:59:08
site and then Kim Jong-un says I also00:59:11
hope that we will always be together in00:59:14
the struggle against imperialism and for00:59:17
the construction of a sovereign state00:59:20
once again I express my gratitude to you00:59:24
for giving us such an opportunity to00:59:26
visit Russia and also for paying such00:59:29
great attention and the Kremlin readout00:59:32
leads with Putin responding with a thank00:59:36
you00:59:37
so emphasis here in the readout on00:59:41
economic and humanitarian cooperation00:59:45
Kim Jong-un is coming to North to Russia00:59:49
obviously he's interested in science and00:59:53
technology he wants to upgrade North00:59:57
Korea's Industries01:00:00
this goes without saying and Kim Jong-un01:00:04
has repeatedly showed that he has an01:00:07
interest in making North Korea more more01:00:11
advanced in ITS Technologies so that01:00:14
we could take as red but01:00:17
what he will also want what he's also01:00:20
looking for01:00:22
is action from the Russians to stabilize01:00:27
North Korea's economy01:00:29
to bring it back at least to the level01:00:31
of stability that it had before the01:00:34
Soviet Union collapsed in the 1980 in01:00:37
the 1980s and 1990s01:00:40
to01:00:41
ensure food Security in North Korea to01:00:45
provide North Korea with fertilizer and01:00:49
food and oil and all the rest but to do01:00:54
so in a system of balanced trade01:00:57
and economic cooperation01:01:00
because of course anything else would01:01:03
make North Korea dependent on Russia01:01:06
which is not what Kim Jong-un would want01:01:09
to see and it would anyway be01:01:12
inconsistent with his grandfather's01:01:15
juche ideology which is the ideology of01:01:20
North Korea01:01:21
self-reliance and which is of course01:01:24
the ideology which he himself often01:01:28
talks about01:01:29
so what is Kim Jong-un going to give01:01:33
Putin in return now I've had a very01:01:36
interesting01:01:37
series of01:01:40
comments again from somebody with access01:01:42
to Russian sources01:01:44
and01:01:46
he says that one thing that the Russians01:01:49
are thinking of doing01:01:51
and it will be an elegant way in some01:01:53
respects of bypassing some of the01:01:56
sanctions that they might infringe other01:01:58
sanctions is that they won't be01:02:00
interested in creating in industrial01:02:03
park01:02:04
in Russia opening up Russian factories01:02:08
and employing Korean guest workers01:02:13
and those North Korean gas workers would01:02:16
come to Russia they'd operate these01:02:18
factories some North Korean workers are01:02:21
well educated and skilled01:02:24
apparently the Russians would pay01:02:26
the North Korean government01:02:29
for these workers the North Korean01:02:32
government would in turn01:02:34
pay the wages of these people01:02:37
so that would be01:02:39
one way of doing it but I think it01:02:43
actually goes beyond this as I said I01:02:45
remember years ago01:02:48
learning quite a lot about01:02:50
relations between the Soviet Union and01:02:53
North Korea01:02:54
the extent to which North Korean01:02:57
factories were very tightly integrated01:03:00
within the Soviet industrial system and01:03:03
Soviet planning system as well01:03:07
and I suspect that some of that is going01:03:11
to be revived as well with the Russians01:03:15
perhaps interested also in some of the01:03:19
raw materials that North Korea also01:03:22
produces01:03:23
so01:03:26
this could be an interesting economic01:03:29
relationship it could develop actually01:03:31
quite quickly01:03:34
um any external investment coming from01:03:37
Russia into North Korea01:03:41
would probably have a significant and01:03:44
fairly rapid impact on the North Korean01:03:47
economy01:03:48
and as this Source has suggested to me01:03:54
with01:03:56
unemployment levels in Russia01:04:00
at exceptionally low levels lower than01:04:03
they have been at any time since the01:04:06
Soviet Union collapsed there is a01:04:08
general shortage of workers in Russia01:04:12
obviously made worse by the war with01:04:17
hundreds of thousands of men now serving01:04:19
in the military and some hundreds of01:04:23
thousands also having left the country01:04:25
though there are more and more reports01:04:27
of many people returning to Russia who left01:04:31
the country when the mobilization last01:04:34
year took place and I've heard by the01:04:36
way I know of several cases01:04:39
of Russians who did eventually choose to01:04:42
go back but anyway putting that aside01:04:45
that from a Russian point of view01:04:47
importing skilled labor01:04:50
from Korea01:04:53
getting right Korean factories to01:04:55
produce products for Russian factories01:04:58
might ameliorate this problem at least01:05:01
to some degree though I suspect that the01:05:04
Russians will also be looking01:05:06
increasingly to bring in guest workers01:05:10
from Central Asia as they have done in01:05:13
the past where the Russian economy01:05:15
booming with wages Rising with the ruble01:05:20
probably coming to the end of its period01:05:23
of weakness more about that soon01:05:28
Russia will Isis Spirit become again01:05:32
an attractive destination for guest01:05:36
workers from Central Asia as well as01:05:38
well of course from Korea and one area01:05:42
also where01:05:44
reputedly Korean workers01:05:48
are particularly skilled is in01:05:51
construction01:05:52
and of course as Putin was talking about01:05:55
talking recently01:05:58
um in his various meetings with various01:06:01
officials and public meetings in the Far01:06:05
East Russia has a very ambitious01:06:08
infrastructure01:06:10
um development program in the Far East01:06:14
and being able to bring in skilled01:06:17
workers from North Korea some of them01:06:20
apparently very skilled workers01:06:21
especially in construction well that01:06:25
would no doubt help01:06:27
a lot with a lot of this work01:06:30
and you can see how it might work out01:06:32
now in saying all of this I want to make01:06:37
it absolutely clear that I am not01:06:39
discounting at all the possibility that01:06:43
the Russians and the Koreans01:06:45
might also quietly agree over the course01:06:49
of this these talks that career will01:06:52
provide more artillery Ammunition To01:06:56
Russia and perhaps even some01:06:59
missiles and drones01:07:03
that is perfectly possible01:07:07
obviously Putin and Kim Jong-un would01:07:10
not discuss that in public01:07:14
because of the sanctions01:07:18
but01:07:19
it's not impossible01:07:22
that this is01:07:25
part of the discussion01:07:27
in fact it is entirely plausible that it01:07:31
is01:07:32
from Kim jong-un's point of view it01:07:35
might actually be attractive01:07:37
because shells is something that he01:07:41
produces he's country produces in very01:07:44
large numbers01:07:45
it would be something that his factories01:07:48
could produce with the Russians01:07:51
easily and quickly and at great speed01:07:56
there's been some01:07:58
issues about Korean quality control that01:08:02
you could get no doubt Russian01:08:04
inspectors coming along to the factories01:08:07
to ensure that those quality control01:08:09
issues are addressed01:08:11
not impossible01:08:13
and of course in a situation where the01:08:18
North Koreans are providing the Russians01:08:21
with ammunition and other equipment01:08:25
well again01:08:27
consistent with Kim jong-un's juche01:08:32
ideology01:08:34
that would reinforce01:08:37
the feeling01:08:38
in North Korea01:08:40
that this is a relationship between01:08:43
equals that the Russians01:08:48
are obtaining01:08:50
from the North Koreans01:08:54
the equipment they need01:08:57
in what Kim Jong-un calls their sacred01:09:02
struggle to defend State sovereignty and01:09:06
protect their security in opposition to01:09:10
the hegemonic forces that oppose them01:09:14
note that it was Kim Jong-un who brought01:09:18
up the conflict in Ukraine not Putin01:09:23
so there we are an interesting meeting01:09:28
a lot of it we won't know much about01:09:33
because as I said a lot of the01:09:35
discussion will there be will have been01:09:37
taking place in private the Chinese will01:09:41
be briefed about everything that has01:09:44
happened we might get dribs and drabs of01:09:49
information quietly leaking to the West01:09:52
over time01:09:54
the West will be worried about this01:09:57
the South Koreans and the Japanese also01:10:00
but there it is there's been a law01:10:03
article about this meeting in global01:10:05
times the Chinese newspaper which as01:10:08
I've said many times is the English01:10:10
language voice of the Chinese government01:10:15
and Global times which seems entirely01:10:20
content about this meeting between the01:10:23
Russians and the North Koreans makes the01:10:28
entirely valid point01:10:30
that I've myself made previously that01:10:36
to the extent that there is now a01:10:39
Russian North Korean raprochma underway01:10:42
in fact strategic partnership in the01:10:46
making is perhaps not too strong a term01:10:50
to the extent that that is underway01:10:54
it is the Americans themselves01:10:56
through their actions that they who have01:10:59
brought it about01:11:01
and I think that is indisputably true01:11:05
but don't expect that message ever to be01:11:08
learned or internalized in Washington01:11:13
anyway there we are01:11:16
now01:11:17
I've discussed this relationship between01:11:20
Russia and North Korea01:11:22
and of course all of this pertains to01:11:24
problems and issues in the respective01:11:27
economies North Korea01:11:30
has gradually recovered from the crisis01:11:32
of the 1990s a few years ago before the01:11:35
latest round of sanctions were imposed01:11:37
North Korea's economy was actually01:11:39
growing very fast01:11:41
the01:11:44
tie up with the Russians01:11:47
will probably make it resume growth01:11:50
again01:11:52
but obviously this is a developing thing01:11:56
I've touched on some of the issues that01:11:58
the Russians are going through the01:12:00
questions of Labor shortage they seem to01:12:03
feel that the period of Ruble weakness01:12:06
is ending01:12:07
I've discussed the fact that growth in01:12:10
Russia looks like it's going to be the01:12:12
Russian perspective pretty strong this01:12:15
year it'll be around well01:12:18
the Central Bank says around 2.2 percent01:12:21
others in the economics Ministry say 2.501:12:25
but anyway faster than the Russians01:12:28
themselves had anticipated01:12:31
and I've also discussed in the past how01:12:34
the Finance Minister Anton sullivanov01:12:37
has recently come out and again01:12:39
predicted that the total size of the01:12:42
Russian budget deficit this year will be01:12:45
around two percent of GDP01:12:48
and I understand that the finance01:12:51
ministry is predicting01:12:53
an overall budget surplus next year01:12:58
so that's what the Russians are saying01:13:02
about their economy now just for quick01:13:06
comparison I've been looking at the01:13:08
situation in the United States and I01:13:11
want to make it very clear that01:13:12
comparisons between the situation in the01:13:15
U.S economy and the Russian economy01:13:17
should not be pushed too far because01:13:20
well there's such profoundly different01:13:23
economies of course the U.S economy is01:13:26
much bigger and it operates in a01:13:30
different scale in a completely01:13:32
different way but I would just say this01:13:35
of course the United States runs a trade01:13:37
deficit Russia runs a trade surplus01:13:41
um01:13:43
and the U.S budget deficit is now almost01:13:48
approaching eight percent of GDP eight01:13:52
percent of GDP as opposed to a predicted01:13:56
Russian budget deficit of around two01:14:00
percent of GDP now there's been a lot of01:14:03
commentary01:14:04
especially in Britain especially I'm not01:14:06
saying more conservative newspapers but01:14:10
you can also find them in Guardian in01:14:11
the guardian and some of the more01:14:13
left-wing ones comparing the fact that01:14:17
the British economy is01:14:18
stagnating that the European economies01:14:21
are Contracting with the much better and01:14:25
stronger performance of the US economy01:14:28
and in terms of growth this is01:14:31
absolutely correct the U.S economy is01:14:33
growing this year the European economies01:14:35
are Contracting the British economy is01:14:38
in the state of01:14:40
stagnation which masks overall decline01:14:46
but01:14:48
the US is achieving this growth01:14:51
against01:14:52
a backdrop of a budget deficit of eight01:14:56
percent01:14:57
and that is extremely high at a time01:15:01
when the U.S economy is not in recession01:15:04
and I would suggest that in fact it is01:15:07
the reason why the U.S economy is not in01:15:12
recession even as the Federal Reserve01:15:14
board has been raising interest rates01:15:16
the U.S government01:15:19
has been spending01:15:23
faster and faster and more and more01:15:27
debt levels01:15:28
in the US are now rising and they're01:15:31
Rising fast they're above 100 percent of01:15:35
GDP and they're going to continue to01:15:37
grow01:15:38
and of course the budget deficit01:15:42
is now growing to what I suspect is a01:15:45
lot alarming01:15:46
and potentially even unsustainable01:15:49
levels01:15:50
now can I say lots of people will say01:15:53
that this is keynesianism in action01:15:56
people who say that are in my experience01:15:59
profoundly ignorant of the actual01:16:02
economic writings of the actual John01:16:06
Maynard Keynes you can fault him on many01:16:09
things but he certainly did not advocate01:16:14
running big01:16:17
deficits big budget deficits at a time01:16:21
of economic growth he sought deficits as01:16:24
a mechanism to increase demand during01:16:28
periods of recession United States is01:16:31
not in recession and yet it is running01:16:34
this very very large deficit01:16:37
budget deficit and of course that is01:16:41
probably as I said the reason why it's01:16:44
avoided a recession01:16:46
but it's probably also a reason why oil01:16:50
prices01:16:51
have been creeping upwards creeping01:16:54
closer towards a hundred dollars a01:16:56
barrel it's probably also the reason why01:17:00
inventories of oil around the world are01:17:04
falling01:17:05
it's likely going to mean before long01:17:09
that the U.S01:17:11
trade deficit is again going to start01:17:14
Rising because the U.S government is01:17:18
through its deficit putting more money01:17:20
into the economy than it is taking up01:17:25
but perhaps01:17:27
the stockist thing the thing to01:17:29
take a step back and think about is this01:17:33
a budget deficit of this size01:17:36
intended to keep the economy humming01:17:39
moving forward01:17:41
in in effect making the economy run hot01:17:46
it's kept the United States out of01:17:49
recession01:17:51
but it's produced growth01:17:54
which is estimated for this year01:17:58
to be 1.8 percent01:18:02
now01:18:04
in reality that doesn't look to me so01:18:07
very impressive now it's obviously01:18:11
better than the Dismal situation we're01:18:14
seeing in Britain and Europe where we're01:18:17
seeing stagnation at best and01:18:20
contraction increasingly at least the US01:18:24
is achieving growth01:18:27
but it's01:18:29
the growth it's achieving01:18:31
is well01:18:34
less than impressive01:18:37
and of course most of this growth or so01:18:40
it looks to me is likely not just the01:18:44
product01:18:45
of this extra spending01:18:48
but probably is that extra spending that01:18:53
spending is working its way through the01:18:56
statistics and it's probably giving the01:18:59
impression that there is actual growth01:19:03
and that no doubt explains much of the01:19:07
unhappiness that there exists apparently01:19:09
within the United States01:19:11
people complaining about uh falling real01:19:16
wages and01:19:18
unhappy about the general state of the01:19:21
economy and why we have this discrepancy01:19:24
with the way in which a lot of people in01:19:27
the United States feel about the economy01:19:30
and about01:19:32
the way in which the economy is actually01:19:35
performing01:19:36
now01:19:38
all of this of course01:19:40
begs the further question of how01:19:43
sustainable this is no other economy in01:19:47
the world would be able to go on01:19:50
operating in the way that the United01:19:52
States is doing with an eight percent01:19:54
budget deficit it is eight percent of01:19:57
GDP budget deficit no other economy01:20:00
could do it this is where the exorbitant01:20:03
privilege of having the world's Reserve01:20:05
currency makes it possible for the01:20:08
United States to do things which no01:20:12
other economy could possibly do01:20:15
but personally I can't help but think01:20:18
that event that sooner or later in some01:20:21
form or other01:20:23
all of this extra spending again as was01:20:28
the case with the spending that took01:20:30
place in President Biden's first year is01:20:34
going to work its way through into01:20:37
higher inflation01:20:39
now01:20:40
we saw that happen with the spending01:20:43
that took place in the first year we're01:20:45
seeing how oil prices are now Rising01:20:48
less because of OPEC plus production01:20:51
Cuts more because of rundown inventories01:20:55
and with China likely to start growing01:21:00
faster towards the end of this year we01:21:03
could very well see oil go well past the01:21:07
100 a barrel limit and we could start to01:21:11
see an optic in inflation not just in01:21:14
the United States but globally as well01:21:18
how Western central banks respond to01:21:21
that if it happens01:21:24
I don't know we'll just have to wait and01:21:28
see but in the meantime I would just01:21:31
finish Again by reiterating01:21:34
that last point01:21:36
all this extra spending all of this01:21:40
running of the economy hot01:21:42
all of this well historically very large01:21:46
deficit almost unprecedented in peace01:21:51
time01:21:52
delivering just one 1.8 percent growth01:21:57
it doesn't seem to be impressive people01:22:01
who are talking about01:22:03
re-industrialized01:22:05
reindustrialization processes happening01:22:08
in the United States uh01:22:11
certainly premature01:22:14
it seems to me there's little to show01:22:17
through all so far anyway that where I01:22:21
end my program today more from me soon01:22:26
um let me remind you again that you can01:22:28
find all our programs on our various01:22:31
platforms especially locals and Rumble01:22:35
mind you that on locals every Wednesday01:22:38
at 1900 hours uh sorry at 1400 hours01:22:42
Eastern Standard Time 1900 hours London01:22:45
time I do my live streams on locals01:22:48
exclusively to locals you can join me01:22:51
there if you wish and also please01:22:54
remember that if you want to support our01:22:56
work you can do so through patreon and01:22:59
subscribe star links under this video01:23:01
and of course by going to our shop you01:23:04
can buy the amazing things that you will01:23:06
find there are magic mugs our hats or01:23:09
hoodies our t-shirts our sweatshirts all01:23:11
those great things and before I finish01:23:15
this video I've Just Seen01:23:17
um a message01:23:20
um from a Russian telegram Channel don't01:23:22
know how accurate this is but they say01:23:24
that the Sovereign in Sebastopol in the01:23:27
Ship Repair plant facility has01:23:30
suffered only superficial damage and01:23:33
that the landing craft01:23:36
um has suffered more damage but that all01:23:39
that that all that that will mean will01:23:41
be that the repairs will take two months01:23:43
longer well who knows anyway just on01:23:47
that note I'm going to finally finish01:23:50
remember as I said if you've liked this01:23:52
video you can take the01:23:54
the like button you can check the subs01:23:57
your subscription to this channel it'll01:23:59
be an awful lot more no doubt about the01:24:01
sevastopol attack and other things01:24:05
over um over the next few days and until01:24:08
then have a very good day and speak to01:24:12
you again soon01:24:13
[Music]Description:
Ukr Attacks Sevastopol as Ground Attacks Badly Fail, Ukr Losses Surge, Rus Losses Lowest in War; Putin Kim Launch Rus-North Korea Strategic Partnership Topic 963 *****LOCALS COMMUNITY***** https://theduran.locals.com/ 1 MONTH FREE TRIAL: https://theduran.locals.com/support/promo/DURANLOCALS *****THE DURAN SHOP***** https://theduranshop.com/ 10% OFF COUPON. Use code at checkout: REALNEWS *****OUR OFFICIAL CHANNELS***** ALEXANDER: https://www.youtube.com/AlexanderMercourisReal ALEX: https://www.youtube.com/alexchristoforou *****CRYPTO SUPPORT***** BITCOIN: 3JvdnoyWMb93hSRgk58ZstUxg11PW9mKSr ETHEREUM: 0xF39BdFb41f639B82E3D2Bf022828bC6394F533A3 LTC: MGFiMC18ZViF6DcCixMqAAP11TG4tF6Acj ADA: addr1v94ayqu53uklgqnn6c4x4weu8zk4uw78km8capd5rjdc06q28j370 HEX: 0xD449694348B1D618ECa2829Bbc901782F5172689 EMC2: EXX4KK9pZLx7uiLWnCXtp7iMKjtq6o5b6R *****DONATE***** CREDIT CARD: https://donorbox.org/the-duran SUBSCRIBE STAR: https://www.subscribestar.com/theduran PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/theduran *****VIDEO PLATFORMS***** SUPER U: https://superu.net/channel/055dc88f-aec7-475a-a7ad-1ad271b0282d/ RUMBLE THE DURAN: https://rumble.com/c/theduran ODYSEE: THE DURAN: https://odysee.com/@theduran ALEXANDER: https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a ALEX: https://odysee.com/@alexchristoforou:7 BITCHUTE: THE DURAN: https://www.bitchute.com/theduran/ ALEXANDER: https://www.bitchute.com/alexandermercouris/ ALEX: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/izwNAdmMGIC7/ *****AUDIO PODCASTS***** SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/5DgkWsC3YjoyGBV03CFWnk iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-duran-podcast/id1442883993 Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-901836666 *****FREE SPEECH PLATFORMS***** TELEGRAM: https://t.me/thedurancom GAB: https://gab.ai/?r=1 MINDS: https://www.minds.com/theduran PARLER: https://parler.com/profile/theduran/posts MEWE: https://mewe.com/i/theduran VK: https://vk.com/thedurancom OK: https://ok.ru/group/60904083488959 DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/7qFhcjHaeF Amazing music contribution from Peter Brown. Follow Peter's music: https://soundcloud.com/peterboy100
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The most convenient way is to use the UDL Client program, which supports converting video to MP3 format. In some cases, MP3 can also be downloaded through the UDL Helper extension.
How can I save a frame from a video "Ukr Attacks Sevastopol, Ukr Losses Surge, Rus Losses Lowest; Putin Kim Launch Strategic Partnership"?
This feature is available in the UDL Helper extension. Make sure that "Show the video snapshot button" is checked in the settings. A camera icon should appear in the lower right corner of the player to the left of the "Settings" icon. When you click on it, the current frame from the video will be saved to your computer in JPEG format.
What's the price of all this stuff?
It costs nothing. Our services are absolutely free for all users. There are no PRO subscriptions, no restrictions on the number or maximum length of downloaded videos.