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Subtitles
Russian
00:00:04
On the one hand, for the first time in human history
both sides of a big war are in one information space.00:00:12
Military propaganda wasn’t created yesterday.00:00:14
And bringing your point of view to the enemy’s
soldiers and population is not new either.00:00:19
But a situation when both sides of the conflict
literally live in the same social media space,00:00:23
watch the same videos on YouTube and interact every day –
it’s a unique phenomenon of the 21st century.00:00:32
In particular, this is the reason why
we can see the whole picture quite well.00:00:36
We understand the power balance, and in general,
having some skills of working with information00:00:41
and analyzing the sources from all sides, we can create
a relatively accurate picture of what’s going on.00:00:48
On the other hand, when it comes to the details –
to the tactical situation on the battlefield,00:00:54
to the battles for separate points and control over them,
to the losses from both sides, we know almost nothing.00:01:07
The battle of Donbas was announced early in April and was
expected to happen by the end of April at most.00:01:13
It had to be the largest battle since World War II.00:01:18
They had to result in surrounding
the biggest group of the Ukrainian army,00:01:22
or in destruction of Putin’s illusions
about the control of the Eastern Ukraine.00:01:27
Nothing like that happened in April.00:01:29
Local battles kept happening,
and the villages kept changing hands.00:01:37
The reason was obvious – Russia spent all the resources
it had in the beginning and couldn’t gain new ones fast enough.00:01:45
A month later something started happening.00:01:47
The Russian troops pulled up its resources,
equipment and people.00:01:51
As we expected, an undeclared hidden
mobilization started in the country a month ago.00:01:58
It’s not centralized, it’s all over
the country but still very active.00:02:03
There are a lot of cases when they call former military officers
and offer them to sign a new contract and a huge sum in reward.00:02:12
Besides, Ukraine encountered some bureaucratic barriers
to receive new military equipment from the Western allies.00:02:20
The situation leaned in favor of the Russian government.00:02:23
And it used it immediately – 00:02:24
they threw the Russian troops to attack
the Ukrainian army and surround it.00:02:29
This attempt was not that impressive as it was planned
in the beginning, but still the situation is very serious – 00:02:36
the Russian troops attack from 3 directions,
and a 10,000 Ukrainian army is in danger of entrapment.00:02:43
And meanwhile, Russia is uncovering all its resources,
including T-55 tanks developed in the end of 1950s,00:02:50
endless columns of machinery are going to the front,00:02:53
and the government is ready to pay an annual income
of a poor region to contract soldiers per month,00:02:58
Western help to Ukraine is slow because of bureaucracy.00:03:03
The latter is the main problem.00:03:07
The Ukrainian army has already proved that
it can fight effectively with an overpowering enemy.00:03:14
But it’s a frontal war, and it’s not just about
strategy and skills – it’s about resources, 00:03:20
armory and equipment and there should be plenty of them
and they should come faster than the war destroys them.00:03:27
We are not talking about a separate
machinery lot you should negotiate for a month.00:03:32
They need a format the allies during World War II had – 00:03:38
they shouldn’t wait until the previous lot of tanks is destroyed.00:03:41
One column goes to the USSR, the next one is getting ready.00:03:45
That’s why (to conquer bureaucracy and
procedures which are unacceptable now)00:03:52
they have approved the lend-lease law
for 40 billion dollars in the US.00:03:56
The problem is that the law has just started working.00:03:59
The first lots of equipment have been
shipped recently from the US.00:04:02
And it’s the 4th month of war – Putin had a lot of time to uncover
all the resources, spend a lot of money and have another go.00:04:12
It’s a leap where he has a chance to achieve local success.00:04:16
It’s the main good news.00:04:19
Even in March the whole Ukraine was in danger,
and they discussed the Kyiv seizure for 3 days.00:04:26
And now, there is a serious danger for some
eastern and southern parts of the country.00:04:31
But still it’s a quality change for this war – 00:04:34
for the first time in a long while we can see more red
spots on the map instead of their narrowing down.00:04:39
If it’s bad for the Ukrainian army or not, we can’t say for sure.00:04:45
It’s not possible for the reason I told you about in the beginning – 00:04:48
we can see the whole picture but not its operative details. 00:04:53
However, if we don't go into details we know nothing about,
we’ll try to tell you about the situation.00:05:03
Let’s start from where Vladimir Putin
got his power for a new leap.00:05:07
More or less, we understand the scope of losses.00:05:10
Western intelligence says that the Russian army has lost at least
one-third of the force which invaded Ukraine in February. 00:05:19
We know that at least 1,000 tanks were lost.00:05:23
1,000 tanks is 30 tank battalions.
It’s an incomparable loss.00:05:28
No army has suffered such losses for the last 80 years.00:05:33
It’s more tanks than Great Britain,
France and Germany have in service altogether. 00:05:39
To replace them they need years
of production and billions of dollars.00:05:45
Where does Russia get its offensive potential with such losses?00:05:50
The answer is quite simple.00:05:52
First, boundless reserves of military equipment.00:05:57
But still it’s tanks, it’s armored vehicles.00:06:04
This equipment is old, Soviet and unprepared
for the modern war and it dies at the front amazingly fast.00:06:08
But in this case when you need to achieve local success,00:06:11
to overpower the enemy, quantitative
advantage is not just numbers.00:06:15
Especially, when you run a war having
no goals to save your people or machinery00:06:21
and for every destroyed tank
you can reactivate 10 more old tanks.00:06:25
Second, and it’s the continuation of the first,
the decision not to attack the whole territory of Ukraine.00:06:31
The Russian management didn’t
understand quickly that blitzkrieg failed.00:06:35
But finally, they realized it. 00:06:37
Now the forces are not spread through
a 1,500 km border – from Pripyat to Kherson.00:06:43
Today the army is concentrated in one spot with two goals – 00:06:48
to get full control of the Donetsk and
Luhansk regions and surround the Ukrainian army.00:06:54
They want to surround the Ukrainians not as it was
planned at first but they want to do it locally.00:07:03
Third, the mobilization campaign.00:07:05
As we expected, nobody dared to declare
a full-scale mobilization.00:07:10
The Kremlin knows the reasons
from its closed polls. 00:07:13
We know the reasons from our
experience, logic and common sense.00:07:18
You can sell a war on TV but it’s far more difficult to sell a war
when your son, husband or brother gets a conscription notice.00:07:26
If they took it seriously, mobilization could have had unpredictable
consequences – from a quiet sabotage to an open protest.00:07:36
You can’t lead a war against the country with successful
mobilization and which can send a million people00:07:44
to fight using the conscripts from
Buryatia and Dagestan (regions of Russia) – 00:07:48
there won’t be enough people.00:07:51
There is an option which has been created by Vladimir Putin
for 22 years and he successfully used it. It’s poverty. 00:08:00
For military actions under the contract a soldier can
get 300-350 thousand rubles ($4,500-$5,200) per month.00:08:08
For Pskov and Tambov regions, for many regions of Russia
it’s an annual income without taxes. 00:08:15
We understand how far away the real situation
from the official average salary data is.00:08:19
But even if we believe in this number
of 31,000 rubles ($470) in Smolensk region,00:08:23
in 2 or 3 months you can get enough money
to provide for your family and yourself for 2 or 3 years.00:08:28
In 3 or 4 months you can buy
a nice apartment in a regional center.00:08:33
Unfortunately, poverty is a very
powerful resource for mobilization.00:08:37
Especially when people watch the war on TV and
don’t understand what really awaits them there.00:08:42
They don’t get that a war doesn’t mean
riding on a tank with a flag in their hands.00:08:45
A war means freezing in the holes,
starving, being hurt and dying.00:08:51
A small-town citizen who once served in the army
and now is in debt sees figures from another planet.00:08:59
Nobody in his town or his region
has ever earned that much.00:09:05
That amount of money can solve all his problems.00:09:08
That’s why we can see that many people come
willingly to the conscript centers and go to war.00:09:16
For now, it’s not a war.00:09:18
It’s just a job where no one asks about your qualifications,
and in return you get so much money even00:09:22
a local factory chief manager has never dreamt of.00:09:26
They understand it in the front. 00:09:29
From the first weeks we see the phenomenon of “quitters” – 00:09:34
when people go to the frontline, see what
it looks like and don’t want to come back under fire.00:09:41
It’s a really important process during this war which will impact
not only the battle of Donbas but the outcome of the whole war.00:09:49
On the one hand, financial motivation
and propaganda work really well together. 00:09:53
People are offered to earn a fortune for
a round-trip as it’s shown on TV.00:10:02
On the other hand, because TV is selling wins00:10:06
and because of this dramatic difference
between a nice picture and the reality00:10:11
regular and mobilized soldiers see, such situations occur.00:10:18
Such situations are easily remedied when it comes to a couple
of soldiers but when the whole units refuse to go to war00:10:26
and when people nobody expected to respond come forward
(like regional deputies) – you can’t hide this problem anymore.00:10:39
Yesterday two communist party deputies
from Primorye astonished the whole conference room00:10:45
and to the dismay of the governor Kozhemyako clearly demanded
from Vladimir Putin to withdraw the troops from Ukraine.00:10:53
- If we continue this military operation, it will lead to
the increase of killed and wounded soldiers. We demand
an immediate withdrawal of the Russian troops…00:11:01
- I warn you!
- We demand to stop…00:11:05
- You don’t follow the agenda and the rules. Leonid Yurievich,
you break the rule and speak without the deputy’s approval.00:11:13
Just in case, I’ll remind you that Primorye is not Moscow,00:11:16
it’s not even the eager-to-protest Urals
or the region close to the border with Ukraine00:11:20
which has already had its share of this war.00:11:22
It’s a politically hopeless region of Russia.00:11:26
Yes, regional departments of the communist party have been 00:11:29
a formal business entity for the
local opposing politicians for a while.00:11:32
Yes, they don’t like United Russia much
(the leading political party of Russia).00:11:36
But this is not a problem of deforestation, pensions
or social benefits, or even corruption and election –00:11:41
it’s a political statement which, in fact, is a crime.00:11:46
Anyway, the forbidden words were said.00:11:49
They were published by all the independent media, 00:11:52
millions of people heard them from both sides of the border.00:11:56
Despite all military reasons, or Western supplies to Ukraine,
or local success and failures at the front,00:12:04
all those processes are very important too.00:12:07
Because the end of the war doesn’t
depend on which city or village belongs to whom.00:12:14
In the long run it depends on how well Vladimir Putin
can control the situation in the country00:12:19
to continue the war only he needs
and keep producing corpses in Ukraine.00:12:26
For Vladimir Putin this war is a matter of life and death.00:12:30
He understands it and he is ready
to spend anything to avoid military failure. 00:12:36
We’ve already said that defeat is always a loner.00:12:39
In his defeat Putin will be alone, and he is not that far away
from the reality to forget about it.00:12:45
Any money for mobilization, any damage
to the economy, any reprisals. 00:12:51
Nothing like a different opinion is allowed
in the public space anymore.00:12:56
The whole power vertical is working for this war,00:12:58
every official must jump out of his skin eager
to prove he is oh-so patriotic and approves this war.00:13:05
Any anti-war statement, especially the one coming
from the officials, has very real and dramatic consequences.00:13:14
There could be just one position, any violation
is the end of your career at the very least.00:13:20
But while all the resources go to war
and everybody should work for it,00:13:26
in some parallel reality
a completely different thing happens – 00:13:29
soldiers who’ve seen war
don’t want to come back there 00:13:33
and in one (apparently) protected deputy
unit of the regional assembly00:13:38
there are brave men (even more than one)
who openly stand against the war.00:13:44
One of the deputies recorded a telephone call to the soldiers
who refused going to the front in the Luhansk region.00:13:51
Now they are in a peculiar situation.00:13:53
They say their management doesn’t
give them any guns or even provisions,00:13:56
so they have to find their food, water,
and a place to sleep themselves.00:13:59
Let’s listen to it for a couple of minutes.
I won’t show their faces.00:14:04
There are short-term conscripts and just
conscripts who started serving under the contract. 00:14:08
They were lured there under false pretexts – allegedly for training.00:14:11
For now, they took away all our body armor and guns.00:14:15
For now, they took away all our body armor and guns.00:14:18
They are scared of something – I don’t know what.00:14:20
Some people went home on their own and crossed the border.00:14:26
Some people are on the border waiting for their officers
to take them away because they are undocumented.00:14:33
Some people's passports and military
service cards were taken away.00:14:37
We don’t want to fight because
of the commanders and their mistakes.00:14:42
We’ve had huge losses because of their mistakes.00:14:46
That’s why I refuse to fight, I want to go home.00:14:53
In reality it’s totally different than on TV. On TV it’s wonderful,
we are winning, we have the newest equipment. 00:15:04
We’ve received retired machinery – it’s junk.00:15:09
Our mechanics were repairing it all the time.00:15:14
You can’t polish a turd, and then go and fight in it.00:15:19
The situation is like this.00:15:21
It’s not the first time we try to explain our commanders
and ask them to take us away from here as one team.00:15:24
We are ready to leave this place at our own expense.00:15:27
We can buy a ticket and go by plane or by train,
it doesn’t matter. We can leave on our own. 00:15:30
The commanders say that they can’t do it.
They are scared that if so many people leave, there will be panic.00:15:42
We’ve found a piece of plastic cover to make
a tent because we had to sleep under the rain and got wet… 00:15:53
We were given pills for our heads… 00:15:58
We’ve come from Primorye from the town
of Ussuriysk from the 394 Sergeevsky regiment.00:16:05
The quantity… The hiring campaign among the
officers is over now. Half of us fell apart…00:16:10
they were scared because they were threatened with prison.00:16:17
Please, pay attention that the only motivation the government
gives the quitters and the people who stand against the war is fear.00:16:24
Too many people understand now that this war is a catastrophe,
it leads just to a complete disaster, and it will end with a defeat.00:16:32
Though, not everybody has the courage to speak out and act.00:16:36
Fear is not military fever the Russian society
is sick with, according to propaganda.00:16:41
Fear is just fear. It’s a feeling that might go away
with time or be replaced with another fear. 00:16:48
The commander who is threatening to shoot you
down is scary, but the enemy is even scarier.00:16:55
Criminal investigation for a public statement is scary too,
and some people can’t keep silent even being scared.00:17:05
It becomes clear that tomorrow will
come and you will be rewarded afterwards.00:17:12
And it’s so good that even now, in such a hopeless situation,
people are ready to conquer their fears. 00:17:20
It’s good both for Russia and Ukraine.00:17:28
The situation at the front can
change quickly in favor of both sides.00:17:33
Ukraine's enemy is still very strong,
and what’s more important – desperate.00:17:37
He has lost all his goals and is ready to kill as many people 00:17:41
as he needs to just to avoid being someone
who started a war and couldn’t win it.00:17:45
But watching news about military actions, 00:17:48
or seeing how the settlements change their hands, you must
remember that it has just a short-term meaning.00:17:57
We are not talking about years (God, no) but months.00:18:01
Putin has launched all the processes
which will lead him to defeat in future.00:18:05
This war becomes less and less popular in Russia,
the Russian economy is isolated and will start decaying.00:18:12
Putin’s friends will get more and more angry that they’ve
lost their dolce vita and became prisoners of his ambitions.00:18:20
The front will eat more and more resources,
and those resources will be irreplaceable.00:18:26
Even the rightful complaints about the Western allies
of Ukraine who started their favorite game – 00:18:32
a bureaucratic volleyball – while people are dying
and Ukraine desperately needs armory,00:18:37
even that means something just for now.00:18:40
But of course, those things are critical now.00:18:43
But despite all the barriers, the decisions are being made,
the machinery and equipment are being supplied,00:18:50
and there are so many of them the Ukrainian
army has never even dreamt of.00:18:55
We said that from the first day of the war
when the whole world was shocked by this intrusion,00:18:59
and the Russian saboteurs drove
infantry fighting vehicles all over Kyiv.00:19:03
We’ll repeat it now, when the situation
in Donbas became much worse –00:19:07
there is no way that Putin wins.00:19:10
The only question is how and when he will lose.00:19:15
Till tomorrow!Description:
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