Download "2 года санкций, рост цен, возвращение QIWI, Армения и ОДКБ / Баженов: Персонально ваш/23.02.24"
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FzZpAHDkPkmk%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
Please wait. We're preparing links for easy ad-free video watching and downloading.
Table of contents
Similar videos from our catalog
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252F4_-JweGf8B8%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FCXL7kOsyNUE%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FHTR5ioLoQco%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FHk-ZdFqY7CA%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi_webp%252FJR3sQhESwHg%252Fmaxresdefault.webp&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FTbsbQRdzfkA%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FTiKdhoELc94%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252Fm0yQn_s9qqI%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252Frc4UXMY2IjI%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FwSlPLmOphLI%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:26
[music]00:00:53
Good afternoon everyone, this is a Youtube channel, a living00:00:55
nail at the microphone, Lisa Anikina and00:00:57
the program, your personal guest00:00:59
today is the author of a blog about economics and00:01:01
economic science Fury dros Grigory00:01:03
Bozhenov hello yes00:01:05
hello Let's do a00:01:08
kind of summing up tomorrow00:01:09
it will be exactly 2 years since the start of00:01:11
the war and I would like to understand so many00:01:13
sanctions, there have been so many different changes during this time, the00:01:15
feeling that life in00:01:18
the country and, in principle, in the world00:01:20
has changed very noticeably. What can we say about the00:01:21
economy? What are the main trends we00:01:24
see now? No, well, of course, the economy00:01:26
has also changed a lot, as of course the00:01:29
key ones changes in the economy,00:01:31
we must talk about changes in the00:01:34
structure and directions of foreign00:01:36
trade, and within the framework of foreign00:01:38
trade we are dealing not only with00:01:40
the sale and, accordingly, the purchase of00:01:42
some final products, that is, those00:01:44
that are needed by a simple consumer, but00:01:47
also with regard to various intermediate00:01:49
items that the company uses.00:01:51
You can, for example,00:01:53
look at the00:01:55
dynamics of the geographical structure of00:01:57
Russian imports as such very clear characteristics, if previously it was00:01:59
our imports. That is, what00:02:01
we purchased came directly from00:02:06
European countries, well, first of all, of00:02:09
course, it was European00:02:10
countries, of course there were imports there00:02:12
imports from Great Britain were from other00:02:15
Western countries, but now the share of00:02:17
these imports has decreased very much,00:02:19
and along with this process Yes, accompanying00:02:23
it, the share of imports from China has increased very much,00:02:25
as well as from other so-00:02:27
called friendly or00:02:29
neutral00:02:30
countries there, in general you can to say that in00:02:31
Russian imports the share of developed00:02:33
economies decreased from 47 to 17%, this is00:02:37
actually an extraordinary change in00:02:40
terms of changes in terms of changes in00:02:42
trade directions, and the share from China00:02:45
reached 45%, these are very00:02:47
significant changes, very very bright,00:02:50
so powerful when you name these00:02:53
figures Does this include parallel00:02:55
imports of what is first transported to Kazakhstan00:02:57
and then already transported to Russia, how is this00:02:59
considered? No, if we consider this to be00:03:01
directly imported from00:03:03
Kazakhstan Yes Despite the fact that00:03:06
initially these products could have been00:03:08
American there, it will be imports from00:03:09
Kazakhstan, as it were, therefore Well, this needs to be00:03:12
understood, that is, we cannot count00:03:14
How many Western00:03:16
products we have are still in Russia but are00:03:17
imported through other countries Well, no,00:03:21
why can we talk about this, the simple00:03:22
fact is that the key00:03:24
supply directions are this is certainly00:03:26
the direction of supplies from the so-called00:03:28
friendly or local countries, everything00:03:31
has changed in relation to all these00:03:33
export directions, the same thing with00:03:35
regard to oil and gas, there are also a lot of00:03:37
different changes, of course, here we need to00:03:40
say that the key buyers00:03:43
are now also our countries, as it00:03:47
were Asian direction Yes, the total share of00:03:50
China and India in the structure of seaborne00:03:52
oil exports from Russia over the past 200:03:54
years has grown from 32% to 76. That is,00:03:58
in fact, almost everything that is supplied00:04:01
by tanker, almost everything that is supplied within the00:04:04
framework of the direct00:04:06
sea routes. Yes, this is all now00:04:08
going exactly there to China and India in00:04:10
January, for example, 2020, the volume of00:04:12
tanker supplies of Russian oil to00:04:14
these two countries was approximately 1 million00:04:16
barrels per day, and today we are already00:04:18
talking about more than 2.5 million barrels per00:04:21
day, this is also a very important change, but it is00:04:25
also important It should be noted here that Yes,00:04:27
of course, it was possible to redirect the00:04:29
export position there to other countries, but at the00:04:31
same time it does not mean that there are no00:04:34
losses for Russians, for example,00:04:35
Oil Workers. Still, the oil industry00:04:38
is very important from the point of view of the00:04:40
Russian economy, we must understand00:04:42
that the discount has increased significantly eurs to BN00:04:46
Yes, well, usually this discount was00:04:48
about 2 dollars per barrel. Well, there could00:04:50
have been a premium and,00:04:52
accordingly, there was usually a discount,00:04:54
but nevertheless there were times when a00:04:56
premium was observed for our oil for00:04:59
Blend eurs, now we are talking about the fact that00:05:02
we 710 there 13 dollars per barrel is a00:05:05
discount relative to the brand In addition, it00:05:08
is necessary to use a shadow00:05:10
tanker fleet Well, naturally, this is a way out00:05:13
of the situation, but in general this is a much00:05:15
less effective story because all00:05:18
this means an increase in costs, which00:05:20
plays into reducing the profitability of00:05:22
exports In addition, let's not00:05:24
forget about the fact that the so-00:05:26
called Big Oilfield00:05:28
Service Four left Russia. Well, maybe many have heard about00:05:30
Schlumberger, but all this,00:05:34
of course, does not pass without a trace. Besides,00:05:38
well, among other things,00:05:41
supplies of equipment for00:05:42
oil refining directly from the United States00:05:44
of the European Union to Japan are limited. Well, for Russian00:05:46
oil refining. In the short00:05:48
term, this may00:05:50
significantly increase the repair time of the leading00:05:52
Russian refineries; they are also periodically00:05:54
subject to shelling. Of course, something like00:05:56
that Well, let’s just say that the destruction did not00:06:01
happen Yes, but naturally this whole matter00:06:04
cannot be viewed purely00:06:06
positively, and as for00:06:09
economic growth for 2023, it is00:06:14
what it is in largely due to an00:06:16
increase in the so-called investments in00:06:18
reserves Well, you just need to understand how00:06:20
GDP is calculated Yes, GDP can be calculated using00:06:22
different methods If you do not have00:06:25
errors in measurements, then accordingly00:06:27
you will not have any discrepancies Yes, well,00:06:29
usually there is a discrepancy because we are00:06:31
people always trying to collect data00:06:33
we make certain mistakes and therefore00:06:35
inevitably there is a little reality here,00:06:39
let’s say statistical information00:06:40
differs, but in general these discrepancies00:06:43
are still not very00:06:44
significant, very large one of the00:06:45
methods of honoring VPs is by the sum of the00:06:47
expenses of everyone who carries out these expenses in the economy.00:06:50
We have a home00:06:52
economy that purchases goods and00:06:54
services Yes, we have companies that00:06:56
make investments. We have a00:06:58
state that also spends funds00:07:01
on final consumption. Here, as a00:07:02
rule, we are talking. Many people think that we are talking about00:07:04
some kind of I don’t know purchases of00:07:06
office supplies, or00:07:08
computers, equipment, or cars.00:07:11
on the balance sheet, for the most part, we are talking here,00:07:12
of course, about the remuneration of00:07:14
civil servants because we00:07:16
believe Well, within the framework of statistics,00:07:18
it is assumed that civil00:07:20
servants are those who provide00:07:21
public services to the public. Yes, and00:07:24
accordingly the state00:07:25
pays for00:07:27
these services through a redistribution mechanism. Well, for example, doctors are teachers there00:07:29
Yes, in our country, through the budget system, this is00:07:31
all paid for, considered as a00:07:33
state consumer service.00:07:59
What is not Yes, but in general We see that00:08:01
consumer spending has recovered00:08:03
to pre-crisis levels; government00:08:05
spending is at an increased level,00:08:07
but what is very different from what00:08:11
we could previously consider normality? Yes,00:08:13
this is increasing investment in inventories, what are00:08:16
investments in inventories?00:08:17
Well, look, if a company produced00:08:19
goods but it did not sell them on the market,00:08:22
how would these goods remain and not be00:08:24
produced? We assume in statistics00:08:27
that it is as if this company00:08:29
bought these goods from itself. and we write down that00:08:32
this is an investment in reserves at market prices,00:08:35
this may be due, on the one00:08:36
hand, to the fact that they work 4-500:08:39
shifts, roughly speaking, and 25 hours, 8 days a00:08:43
week, and in connection with the expansion of defense00:08:46
orders, and on the other hand this may00:08:48
also be due to the fact that, well,00:08:51
in conditions when a new00:08:54
sanctions breakdown may arise Yes, new00:08:56
sanctions can be applied, secondary sanctions can be00:08:58
introduced and so on00:08:59
and you will get, Well, at least for00:09:02
some time, serious serious00:09:04
problems with supplies Yes with those are already00:09:06
built in chains that work for you. That’s why it’s00:09:08
better to stock up.00:09:10
Therefore, in general, yes, the growth00:09:13
that we saw was mainly growth00:09:15
due to these same investments in00:09:16
reserves, that is, we see that, of00:09:20
course, in this regard, the structure of Lovo00:09:23
issue is changing a lot and the economy also00:09:27
works according to a slightly different principle;00:09:30
again, there is an inflationary surge, but we00:09:32
cannot say that this has passed without a trace;00:09:34
double-digit inflation in 2022 is 12% and,00:09:38
accordingly, about 8% - this is 2022; the00:09:41
accumulated inflation is quite large;00:09:44
we have already lost the habit of it from00:09:46
such a level of inflation, this is what is00:09:48
commonly called devaluation. But in00:09:50
fact, the weakening of the ruble is because, despite00:09:52
all the let’s say, non-market00:09:55
practices that can be used in one way or another00:09:57
in the foreign exchange market, the00:09:59
exchange rate is nevertheless formed under the influence of the00:10:02
balance of supply and demand. Well,00:10:04
Of course, today the ruble is the way it00:10:07
is, largely because of the so-called00:10:09
geopolitical discount or00:10:10
geopolitical premium, in relation to which00:10:13
you can consider it as you00:10:15
like best and consider it. It’s clear00:10:17
that all these are significant changes00:10:20
and as if we try somehow00:10:23
this is00:10:24
to analyze what is bright that comes to00:10:26
mind, then I indicated that I’m interested in the00:10:29
costs among the ordinary population, you00:10:32
said that they returned to the pre-00:10:33
crisis level. Well, this is gross along00:10:36
Yes, in the structure of output,00:10:38
consumption expenditures have returned to the crisis00:10:40
level, you can now translate It’s just a00:10:41
feeling that prices have increased very00:10:43
significantly, this could not but affect the00:10:46
finances of ordinary citizens. Well, this00:10:49
naturally affected the finances and00:10:51
incomes of ordinary citizens, but we must00:10:53
simply understand the following with you here.00:10:55
Yes, on the one hand, when we talk to00:10:57
you about this kind of expenses, we must00:11:01
understand what is the nominal expression of00:11:03
these expenses? Yes, the nominal expression of00:11:05
these expenses is in rubles at current00:11:08
prices, that is, you and I have a00:11:10
household; they purchase00:11:12
everyday goods; they00:11:15
purchase durable goods;00:11:16
Yes, they make expenses00:11:19
for services at the prices at which in00:11:21
general, you can actually buy this whole thing,00:11:23
we multiply the prices by the quantity00:11:26
of these goods by the quantity of these00:11:28
warehouse services, these are the products we00:11:30
get in nominal00:11:32
terms Yes, these are the gross00:11:34
consumer expenditures on final00:11:36
consumption, naturally in00:11:38
nominal terms they are most likely00:11:40
will grow from year to year and this will00:11:41
absolutely always happen because00:11:44
if we have a certain00:11:45
inflationary surge, then even if00:11:49
physically Yes, few of these transactions were made,00:11:51
nevertheless, prices rise00:11:54
so much that in the end the indicator00:11:57
shows growth, but we are talking not about the00:11:59
growth of this indicator, but we are talking about00:12:02
just the share in00:12:27
the structure,00:13:19
we had some technical00:13:20
difficulties Yes, we stopped Grigory00:13:23
Bazhenov on our air, yours personally, we00:13:24
stopped at trying to figure out what’s wrong00:13:27
with the consumer picture with money00:13:29
that people spend and with their expenses Well,00:13:32
I said Yes, in nominal00:13:34
terms they will certainly00:13:36
increase under the influence of inflation. But what00:13:38
is important for us is not the nominal expression, but the00:13:40
real expression if we look00:13:42
at the structure of GDP, which is00:13:43
calculated by expenditure. Well, everyone who in00:13:46
the economy makes these expenses then00:13:48
we will see that in the structure of this Yes, we have00:13:52
consumer expenses now in 49 Well,00:13:55
in the 2nd year00:13:57
8% yes, that is, almost half and00:14:00
49.9 about - this is what in the structure00:14:03
we saw in 2021 if we00:14:06
take the twenty-second twenty-second00:14:08
year, then consumer spending fell00:14:10
to00:14:11
47.3, that is, we are talking about the fact that in general,00:14:14
from the point of view of this00:14:16
general structure of those who spend in00:14:18
the economy, consumer spending00:14:20
has recovered, government spending is,00:14:22
as I already said, at an00:14:24
increased level, they are about one00:14:26
percentage point higher than they were in00:14:29
2021, and something in terms of the ratio of00:14:32
incomes and expenses of Russians can be00:14:35
said No, well, I repeat once again that in00:14:38
general and real incomes they seem to have00:14:41
really00:14:43
recovered at the moment. that is, we cannot00:14:45
say that there was some kind of significant shock here.00:14:48
There are many different00:14:51
points that need to be understood. What is00:14:53
real income in general?00:14:55
Here we00:14:58
take into account a variety of parameters of these incomes00:15:01
when00:15:02
we Well, in general, we discuss real00:15:05
incomes there. So what? this is often the case Many people00:15:07
think about salaries, but real incomes00:15:10
should not be equated with salaries, in00:15:12
fact00:15:13
the situation is more subtle, more complex,00:15:16
let us if you are interested, I can00:15:18
tell you what is included in exactly such an00:15:21
indicator as real00:15:23
disposable income yes How do we00:15:25
deal with this in general in general, we can calculate00:15:27
So let's see, let's look at00:15:32
the terminology cash income of the population00:15:35
is nothing more than gross, that is, the00:15:37
total nominal income of various types in00:15:40
general for one year is the sum of all00:15:43
wages that take place in the00:15:45
economy this is the sum of all rental00:15:47
incomes this the sum of all00:15:49
dividends paid, and so on. But in cash00:15:52
income we do not include various00:15:54
types of income from the sale of00:15:56
non-financial assets. Well, for example, we00:15:57
sold this will not be included in cash00:16:00
income, here we are talking about00:16:02
lottery winnings, income from the delivery of raw materials to the Tor,00:16:05
free transfers income that is00:16:07
sheltered from taxation, and so on00:16:09
In short, when we put this whole thing00:16:11
together, we got an amount00:16:14
that we call cash income,00:16:16
then from these very cash incomes00:16:18
the amount that was paid00:16:21
to the budget or the taxes that you and I00:16:24
paid is subtracted, that’s what we what we got with you00:16:26
in the end after the taxes that you and00:16:29
I paid, this will be our00:16:31
disposable cash income so00:16:34
that later we can00:16:35
compare something, we need to understand00:16:38
what year we will be comparing this whole thing.00:16:39
Well, for example, let’s take 2013 there00:16:42
if we take 2013 with you,00:16:45
then every year we need to00:16:50
bring these data series that we have on monetary incomes to the prices of00:16:53
2013, or as economists say00:16:55
deflation, so that00:16:58
we have all these indicators00:17:00
comparable to each other. We00:17:04
recalculate them divide all these00:17:05
indicators per capita so that we can see how00:17:09
much of this kind of cash00:17:10
disposable income we have00:17:12
per person and after that we build00:17:14
data series and we get a00:17:17
certain picture and here everything is very00:17:19
uneven Yes, we can say that in00:17:22
general income from, for example,00:17:25
property is relatively there in the00:17:28
same thirteenth year they fell relative to the00:17:30
twenty-first year, they also decreased,00:17:32
but at the same time the wages of hired00:17:34
workers increased And relative to the00:17:36
thirteenth year And relative to the00:17:37
twenty-first twenty-second year00:17:39
We see that, in general,00:17:42
social payments have hardly changed in real terms00:17:44
Well, in short, the essence The point is that when00:17:46
we look at00:17:48
all these discrepancies by area, what has increased and what00:17:50
has decreased, we will see that, in principle,00:17:52
there was rather some increase in00:17:55
real income precisely because there is00:17:56
such a structure00:17:58
that forms what we are00:18:00
used to calling disposable income00:18:02
But basically, of course, the key00:18:04
driver here was precisely in real00:18:06
terms of wages. What can we00:18:09
say about specific industries that00:18:11
suffered the most from sanctions and from00:18:14
subsequent changes in the economy? No,00:18:16
well, naturally, those sanctions that were00:18:18
most dependent on00:18:21
foreign imports, respectively supplies and00:18:23
components And of course, even00:18:26
such advanced, let’s say, industries for00:18:29
Russian industry cannot be00:18:31
bypassed here, that is,00:18:32
oil refining has also suffered. I have already00:18:34
said that representatives of00:18:36
the oil service department of the big four have left. Well,00:18:39
indeed the complexity is quite00:18:41
serious, and we see that now there are a number of00:18:43
oil refineries there00:18:44
In this regard, he faces00:18:46
certain difficulties. Well, because00:18:48
the repair itself is now becoming00:18:50
more expensive, longer, more difficult, and you need to00:18:53
look for substitutes because you00:18:56
cannot directly, for example, buy a broken grandfather from your00:18:57
previous supplier.00:19:00
So you need00:19:01
either craftsmen00:19:04
to adapt, that is, Well, all this is00:19:06
unpleasant but there are, of course, industries00:19:08
that are the main losers,00:19:10
mainly those industries that were00:19:13
largely localized in00:19:15
Russia but at the same time heavily dependent on the00:19:18
supply of components for assembly from00:19:20
other countries. We are talking, of course, about the00:19:22
automotive industry, and we00:19:24
can also highlight air transportation there.00:19:26
But when do you in general,00:19:29
half of the previously popular directions are closed00:19:31
Yes, and you can only00:19:33
do something like this indirectly in general,00:19:35
naturally you will have significant00:19:38
difficulties and problems in this industry, that’s00:19:41
natural The same applies to00:19:44
aircraft manufacturers there, the00:19:55
situation in general is Well, of course, someone00:19:58
had it worse some people had it a little00:20:00
better, some others weren’t really00:20:02
affected at all, but the general setup is simple00:20:05
Now everything that was previously more00:20:07
accessible has become less accessible You always00:20:10
have to look for various kinds of00:20:11
workarounds And what was the impact of the departure of00:20:15
various foreign companies And in00:20:17
particular the difficulties with the sale of some00:20:20
companies, we observed that foreign00:20:23
companies, in order to exit the00:20:24
Russian market, must overcome a number of00:20:26
obstacles and most likely lose a00:20:28
significant amount of money, plus we00:20:30
saw the00:20:32
nationalization of a number of companies. This is all00:20:34
what this led to. Well, what this led to was the00:20:37
redistribution of property, the transition00:20:39
property from one hand to another,00:20:41
yes, some companies are nationalized,00:20:43
some companies are bought up by00:20:44
Russian owners, often00:20:46
the acquisition is closely related to the00:20:48
cooperation that was built00:20:50
earlier, yes in Russia. Well, for example, when a00:20:52
foreign company worked for us, but00:20:54
there was a Russian division within the00:20:56
Russian division, it was00:20:57
formed he is his own domestic00:20:59
management there and, accordingly, this00:21:00
management simply buys out this company00:21:02
or, for example, the co-owners, well, there00:21:04
was some kind of joint00:21:06
Russian enterprise and, accordingly,00:21:08
they did something together with foreigners and simply the00:21:11
foreign assets of the leaving companies00:21:13
pass into the hands of Russian businessmen for the time being, as it00:21:16
were, then00:21:18
this does not have a significant effect on the economy00:21:20
from the point of view of certain00:21:22
long-term trends, of course this will00:21:24
mean the following. The first thing is that00:21:27
foreigners will be very00:21:28
wary of coming00:21:30
to our country, even if a00:21:33
lot changes here, such an experience is00:21:35
very negative and of course, from the00:21:38
point of view of the business climate, this is00:21:40
quite a serious damage in the long00:21:42
term; second, well, even three. I would00:21:45
highlight the second - this is the fact that in general,00:21:47
various kinds of projects with other00:21:49
countries in Russia today00:21:51
can only be possible within the framework of00:21:53
certain political agreements of00:21:55
political strategic00:21:56
agreements, that is, no longer save,00:21:58
this dictates. And for the most part, it is a00:22:00
political task. Well, the third thing is00:22:02
that Russian business00:22:05
can operate normally00:22:07
only by maintaining the00:22:10
appropriate level of loyalty to the00:22:12
existing political forces. I think that00:22:14
this will establish itself for a fairly long00:22:16
term And what00:22:18
can we say about human resources? Do we have a00:22:20
shortage of personnel and who is missing most of all00:22:22
some kind of brute labor force or,00:22:24
on the contrary, highly qualified personnel00:22:26
who could ha00:22:28
countries do not have enough of both00:22:31
because different shocks have taken place on the00:22:33
Russian economy since On the one hand,00:22:35
people who left Russia00:22:37
stopped working in one way or another, including00:22:39
for Russian companies, as a00:22:41
rule, these are highly qualified people,00:22:42
and that is, a certain brain drain00:22:44
occurred, although later there00:22:46
were immediate adjustments; some of the00:22:48
people who left returned, but yes,00:22:50
of course, there is a certain00:22:51
tension in relation to00:22:52
highly qualified workforce, but00:22:54
hence various kinds of00:22:56
state programs that the00:22:58
government actively sought to develop00:22:59
in order to prevent brain drain one way or another.00:23:02
Another thing is that people were leaving.00:23:04
Not because they couldn’t get a mortgage, but00:23:06
for other reasons, that’s why yes. Of00:23:08
course, tension in honor in terms of00:23:10
highly qualified labor,00:23:11
of course there is, if we are talking about a00:23:15
correspondingly not00:23:16
highly qualified labor force, but00:23:18
there is a low average qualification. Here,00:23:20
too, there is a very serious drawback, this is00:23:22
already a shock associated with mobilization,00:23:24
including Yes, with the fact that there are, as it were, opportunity00:23:26
costs in relation to00:23:29
earnings00:23:31
shifts significantly when there are labor00:23:33
contracts, people who in the regions00:23:35
could never afford to00:23:37
receive the money that00:23:41
the Ministry of Defense currently promises to pay Well, naturally,00:23:43
they can go for these contracts, but at the same time00:23:45
they do not have any kind of property,00:23:57
that is, in general, we can to say that yes, the00:23:59
Russian economy is going through a stage00:24:01
when we have a record low00:24:04
unemployment rate and at the same00:24:06
time real wages are actually growing00:24:08
because there are no other ways to attract00:24:11
people to a sector where there are not enough workers00:24:14
except how to raise wages00:24:16
despite the dynamics of productivity there is00:24:18
simple no, it wasn’t invented, it doesn’t00:24:20
exist, there is tension and it’s00:24:22
strong. What a good00:24:24
situation we have, low unemployment,00:24:26
wages are growing, but isn’t it beautiful,00:24:29
there is a feeling now, I mean00:24:32
precisely from the point of view of the economy, from the point00:24:34
of view of personnel shortage and, in principle,00:24:36
the situation on the market that everyone is hiding00:24:38
before the elections and trying not00:24:39
to take any drastic actions,00:24:42
any steps, such00:24:45
purposeful ones, this is a classic of the genre in00:24:47
Russia, this is what usually always happens,00:24:50
as if it really happened before the elections, you00:24:52
definitely don’t have to expect anything there, then00:24:54
some changes will be observed,00:24:57
but in general, you kind of00:24:59
understand Well, indeed, the Russian00:25:02
economy managed to survive the sanctions00:25:04
shock easily. That is, one can even say that00:25:07
it is not relatively easy, relatively00:25:09
easy, literally easy, and the decline itself00:25:12
was insignificant and the adaptation was00:25:14
quite fast and, in principle, actions00:25:16
on the part of the authorities would have been sufficient00:25:18
literate Well, I mean the actions of the00:25:21
economic block in terms of managing00:25:23
inflation in terms of various kinds of00:25:24
restrictions on the movement of capital00:25:26
when it was required and the00:25:29
possibilities for managing reserves were removed, yes,00:25:31
when it was necessary to open00:25:32
parallel imports, and so on. That is,00:25:34
all this worked and all this in in the00:25:36
end, it made it possible to survive this00:25:39
shock, plus, of course, the huge00:25:41
oil and gas revenues that we managed to00:25:43
obtain in 2022, they covered the00:25:46
decline in other industries there.00:25:50
Of course, all this, this whole Perestroika,00:25:53
this whole transition was accompanied by00:25:54
inflation, this is inevitably a drop in00:25:57
inflation output. So we have a shock with00:25:59
supply side shock on the supply side00:26:01
this means that now the economy00:26:03
will think differently about how it can00:26:05
produce everything that it could00:26:07
produce before, look for new opportunities,00:26:09
look for new trade production00:26:11
chains, build00:26:13
new technological solutions, find and so on. That00:26:14
is, it is inevitable to00:26:16
lay out new logistics including and then00:26:18
the year 2023 comes to us and at first we00:26:23
are quite pessimistic about00:26:26
what will happen, we do not expect00:26:28
growth, but in the end, at the end of the year,00:26:30
growth of 3.6 is an overheating of the economy. A clear00:26:33
overheating of the economy means that it00:26:35
has grown more than it did would have to00:26:37
grow if it were00:26:38
balanced growth, that is, if00:26:40
we didn’t need some00:26:42
additional capacity Yes, which the00:26:44
economy here now cannot00:26:46
provide Well, it’s just technically00:26:48
not possible Yes, it can be done and that’s why the00:26:51
economy works several shifts00:26:53
today but nevertheless, this is00:26:55
really growth. It is clear that00:26:58
this growth is accompanied by inflation, this00:27:00
means that our demand is higher than the00:27:02
level of demand that should be00:27:04
observed in the economy, respectively,00:27:06
all this results in an increase in00:27:09
prices, mainly of course, we,00:27:12
ordinary people, I think we are concerned first00:27:14
turn, the rise in food prices and we00:27:16
observed episodes of a very serious00:27:19
increase in food prices, there00:27:21
were so many discussions about the rise in price of eggs,00:27:23
for example, last year I went to one of the00:27:25
performances and even at this performance the00:27:29
improvisation of one of the actors was precisely00:27:31
that the price of00:27:32
eggs had risen very much But everyone00:27:34
was discussing this, whoever could discuss this matter,00:27:37
all of this is definitely leading00:27:39
to inflation, this is a clear overheating of the economy00:27:42
and of course, in general,00:27:44
there is nothing good in the long term, the question is00:27:46
how long will00:27:47
this overheating last, the longer it00:27:50
lasts, yes, that is the more00:27:51
the economy00:27:53
grows faster than its potential Well,00:27:56
let me try to give you an analogy.00:27:59
Here you have a car A00:28:01
that is capable of reaching speeds of00:28:04
up to 180 km HF, but at the same time it can00:28:07
only move like that for a very certain00:28:09
amount of time, on average it’s better to00:28:12
drive 120 km h. And you are moving 180 and does not00:28:15
slow down, sooner or later you00:28:18
begin to experience certain00:28:19
technical breakdowns, the car stops00:28:21
moving, it just breaks down, this is00:28:24
what concerns Yes, the superiority of00:28:26
speed beyond the limits of your00:28:28
potential of movement potential And this is00:28:31
what is being observed now In my opinion, the00:28:32
Russian economy, if00:28:34
this story about the00:28:37
increased level of roro state defense orders continues,00:28:40
if government spending continues to be00:28:42
at an increased level, then of course all00:28:44
this will only continue00:28:47
to stimulate growth,00:28:49
and above potential it will all00:28:52
result in inflation and, of course,00:28:54
an adjustment in00:28:56
then it won’t be able to pass without a recession in the future. If00:28:58
a recession is a crisis and without00:29:00
some kind of recession. If, however, this whole00:29:03
situation will end as quickly as possible and00:29:06
how the Russian economy will try to00:29:07
return to its previous course, but I00:29:09
mean back to its previous course with from the point of view, the00:29:11
growth rate there will grow by one and a half00:29:13
percent for a year or two. Something like this,00:29:15
our potential is modest.00:29:17
Then the adjustment is probably quite00:29:19
painless, considering that the00:29:22
central bank is still managing to00:29:24
resolve issues related to inflation,00:29:27
yes. Of course, all this goes against the00:29:30
interests of the government with the interests of the00:29:32
highest officials Yes, in our country,00:29:34
which pose completely different tasks,00:29:37
but nevertheless, we still manage to act.00:29:40
Independently, we can say that00:29:42
this gap between potential and00:29:44
fact will be small. But it is quite00:29:48
possible that the Central Bank may also then00:29:51
the moment of time to give up, if he00:29:52
gives in, there will be risks of what00:29:54
economists in professional bird00:29:56
language call fiscal dominance,00:29:59
then00:30:00
significant difficulties will arise in the00:30:02
economy, so, well, the situation is00:30:05
not easy in any case, it’s just00:30:07
purely00:30:08
macroeconomic and yes, of course,00:30:11
taking into account the shock that the00:30:13
Russian economy experienced in principle, she00:30:16
really passed it well Yes, well,00:30:18
better than anyone expected at all. But00:30:22
it’s all still a picture. Well, we can,00:30:26
as it were,00:30:30
say the original Or we can use a sketch00:30:33
Yes, now we’re more likely talking about a sketch00:30:36
Even if we’re talking about a good quality one and not00:30:37
about the original00:30:39
I understand the picture correctly that sanctions00:30:42
generally work, but they work in the00:30:44
sense that they force the economy to00:30:45
accelerate to 180 km per hour and this may00:30:49
contribute to its further overheating00:30:52
or without knowing any00:30:56
difficulties, the point is that after00:31:00
all overheating is, to a greater00:31:02
extent, let's say the actions00:31:06
associated are military actions. Yes, it is00:31:08
military actions that are more likely to be due to this00:31:10
overheating. Yes. Of course, sanctions partially00:31:13
contribute to the fact that companies00:31:15
become more thrifty and therefore00:31:17
increase the so-called investments in00:31:18
reserves. Yes, this is also true, but in general, as00:31:22
it were, the Key the impact of sanctions00:31:23
is that everything begins to be00:31:26
done,00:31:27
and this means that your technological00:31:30
potential becomes lower, the main effect is00:31:33
long-term. Well then, based on00:31:35
this question, there is now a lot of00:31:36
talk about the introduction of sanctions in connection with the00:31:38
death of Alexei Navalny. Can they00:31:40
introduce something that will actually become00:31:42
painful for the Russian economy or00:31:45
for senior officials, including Vladimir00:31:47
Putin, against whom the United States promised to00:31:49
introduce personal sanctions. Well, in00:31:52
fact, the only thing that remains00:31:55
in the arsenal, in my opinion, is various kinds of00:31:58
secondary sanctions. That is, those sanctions00:32:00
that will be directed at countries and00:32:03
companies that cooperate with00:32:05
Russian companies and with Russia00:32:07
directly But the question is how to00:32:09
control this, that is, any other00:32:11
serious blows, serious opportunities to00:32:17
somehow damage the economy. I don’t see00:32:20
Yes, and moreover, even secondary sanctions are00:32:22
still overcome one way or00:32:24
another. That is, I’m honest00:32:26
speaking, I don’t think that something similar can be00:32:29
put into action bring into a decision00:32:32
I have an idea what kind of00:32:33
personal sanctions could be against00:32:35
Vladimir Putin No, I don’t have any00:32:38
ideas It seems to me that00:32:40
they can do anything Well, that is, they will decide00:32:43
it, let the person there announce it and00:32:46
stop diplomatic communication00:32:48
perhaps00:32:50
perhaps some kind of economic I had00:32:53
in mind economic but how to arrest00:32:57
What assets will be seized who00:32:59
will they belong to means most likely00:33:00
it will not be so much personal00:33:02
sanctions as sanctions on those individuals00:33:04
who are in one way or another connected with00:33:05
Vladimir Putin Oh well there is, as it were, a00:33:09
story like this, but I don’t think, to be honest,00:33:12
that here we can really00:33:16
talk at the moment00:33:18
about some real possibility of this00:33:21
kind of injection to carry out a00:33:23
painful,00:33:25
significant next package of sanctions00:33:28
against Russia and Belarus, there will be00:33:30
affected 52 individuals and legal00:33:33
entities and on the list included00:33:35
ammunition manufacturers, electronics production companies,00:33:37
companies that trade in00:33:39
diamonds and oil. And then I was a little00:33:40
surprised, weren’t all these companies00:33:43
previously on the sanctions lists? As far as00:33:46
I remember If I remembered very well All00:33:49
those sanctions lists that were prepared00:33:51
before, I would be the main expert according to00:33:52
sanctions, I’m still a macro economist Yes,00:33:54
but if I remember, as far as I remember, a00:33:58
number of companies were not there. Well, in00:34:00
relation to00:34:03
oil specifically, yes, it wasn’t so much about00:34:06
sanctions as it was00:34:08
about a ban on00:34:11
trade if My memory serves me right, I00:34:14
may be confusing something here, in my opinion there00:34:15
were trade restrictions and not00:34:18
direct sanctions against00:34:19
legal entities, i.e., the Ministry of Finance spoke out00:34:23
against maintaining the threshold for Besh online00:34:25
purchases of euros, the statements wrote about this,00:34:29
this threshold should be lowered from April 100:34:31
to 200 euro this will concern, as far as00:34:34
I understand, people who, for example,00:34:36
order a phone from China, they have to pay00:34:38
after 200 euros a duty of 1520, like a00:34:43
percentage somehow. So why is this being done? It00:34:46
seems to me that now it’s just the opposite:00:34:48
we need to help people buy something00:34:51
when the situation is so difficult00:34:54
Well apparently, either Well, I think that00:34:57
assessing the situation is no longer that00:34:59
difficult because there is already00:35:01
talk about00:35:05
reducing the list of those goods that00:35:07
can, in principle, be considered00:35:09
as goods imported through parallel00:35:11
imports. Yes, all this is already being actively00:35:14
discussed, such discussions they are00:35:16
certainly on the part of the Ministry of Finance, I think00:35:19
most likely related to the concern for00:35:22
replenishing the revenue side of the budget00:35:24
because once again the tasks are set there, so to speak,00:35:27
as if they need to somehow00:35:29
find money, I think that this is the00:35:31
Key concern of the financial department about00:35:34
which he is thinking Well that is, you just00:35:36
have to understand that the Ministry of Finance is00:35:39
not the Ministry of Economic Development.00:35:42
The Ministry of Finance is not a social bloc. Yes,00:35:45
the Ministry of Finance is, in general, a Ministry00:35:47
that primarily cares about how to00:35:49
fill the budget and how to spend it00:35:51
so as to fulfill the tasks assigned to the00:35:54
relevant body of Leni Yes,00:35:58
the authorities00:35:59
need to allocate the task. That's00:36:02
how much it means we'll look for00:36:04
funds for this. We've got a00:36:07
budget approved in the State Duma. Well, that means it must be00:36:09
fulfilled; this budget must be fulfilled.00:36:11
So we need to do it so that it00:36:13
can be fulfilled. Well, they have a00:36:16
different one task therefore there is nothing I00:36:18
think this is surprising in00:36:20
this Grigory Bazhenov on the channel is a00:36:22
living nail Let's take a break for00:36:24
advertising we have a book Ditan Media This is the00:36:28
book I don't know I hope you00:36:29
can see it because it can00:36:31
shine a little in the film the book is called00:36:33
The Dictator Who Died twice The incredible00:36:35
story of Antonio Salazar This is the story of00:36:38
how dictators and dictatorships die,00:36:40
the author of the book, Mark Rari, visited00:36:42
Portugal immediately after the00:36:44
Salazar dictatorship fell and visited a prison for00:36:47
political prisoners, he tries, I00:36:49
mean the author, the author tries to00:36:51
comprehend past historical events and00:36:53
show that A dictatorship almost always faces an00:36:56
inglorious end, much less it awaits the00:36:59
dictator himself. I’ll also remind you that you can00:37:01
subscribe to the Dilettant magazine,00:37:03
receive the latest issues directly by00:37:06
mail, you won’t need to look for them at the00:37:07
kiosk, you can subscribe for 300:37:10
months for 6 for nine or for 12 you need to00:37:13
leave your contact information,00:37:15
email address and indicate the00:37:16
delivery address and method of receipt. And on the website,00:37:19
just go to the website and there you will immediately00:37:21
see a big button, you can click on it00:37:23
and order everything. And of course,00:37:25
buy our latest comic book, save the00:37:27
book cockroach, the author is ready to leave it00:37:30
to you there is your autograph So indicate00:37:32
this in the comments, I am also ready to00:37:34
write a few nice words if you00:37:36
ask for it And of course I will be glad00:37:38
if you enjoy this comic, I00:37:40
really like it, we continue the broadcast00:37:43
Grigory Bazhenov Youtube channel living00:37:45
nail Latvia became the first party of00:37:47
the European Union to banned the import of00:37:48
agricultural products from Belarus and Russia00:37:52
What does this mean for00:37:53
Russia Yes, well, this Well,00:37:57
first of all, this will00:37:59
mean a change in supply chains Well, that’s00:38:02
what it means But that00:38:05
is, if it were possible to export this whole thing00:38:07
through just one channel00:38:11
this could be painful or00:38:13
some problems could occur. And00:38:15
when there are many different00:38:17
routes of direction, it can00:38:18
rearrange00:38:20
the costs a little Yes, it can influence the00:38:24
change in the directions of Postavy, but00:38:27
somehow it cannot have a significant effect,00:38:29
well, that is, it simply does not work00:38:31
so we took a ban, after that00:38:34
there is a00:38:35
collapse of the world economy, it is already00:38:37
structured completely differently, there are too many,00:38:39
let’s say, centers00:38:41
Well, there are too many local centers Yes, and there are00:38:44
too many of those countries within00:38:47
which it is possible to build quite00:38:49
full-fledged all these trade00:38:51
operations, technological operations00:38:53
there are logistics hubs and everything else,00:38:55
so Well, I can’t say that there is00:38:58
something here. Well, something significant here can be00:39:01
considered for me, it’s a rather00:39:03
boring plot. I would designate it like this00:39:06
well. What if other countries00:39:07
join Latvia’s decision?00:39:09
Because As far as I remember, not only she00:39:11
discussed this, not only Latvia wanted to00:39:13
make this decision, but also several00:39:15
other states were considering this00:39:17
option. Well, look again, it will still00:39:20
depend on which one. Exactly how00:39:23
many countries will join all this;00:39:25
this is probably the most00:39:27
key option and how exactly00:39:30
this whole matter will be regulated, how00:39:32
exactly this whole story can00:39:34
be tracked yes Well, it’s like with oil,00:39:37
we’ve been talking for so long about00:39:39
the ceiling, so much time we’ve been talking about00:39:41
various kinds of measures that should one way00:39:43
or another significantly hit the00:39:46
Russian oil industry there But the question is00:39:48
that when you are trying00:39:51
to gather into one big Cartel of00:39:54
consumers, you should not have Shrek00:39:56
eyebrows What Who are the strikebreakers00:39:59
in the oil market today this is00:40:01
India This is China These are other buyers of the00:40:04
Asian region Where does it go00:40:06
accordingly today Russian00:40:08
oil Yes the discount is getting higher, but00:40:11
in general we can’t say that the ceiling00:40:12
works. No, it doesn’t work.00:40:15
Absolutely similar stories apply to the00:40:18
supply of absolutely any other goods.00:40:21
In general, I think that00:40:23
any kind of talk about a00:40:26
ban on the import of food is00:40:29
dangerous talk in that including for those00:40:32
countries that introduce such kind of00:40:33
bans, the fact is that the most00:40:36
sensitive part of the sanctions of the first00:40:39
round Yes, the round that00:40:41
just concerned you and00:40:43
me Well, the Crimean history Yes, these were the00:40:47
very counter-sanctions that the00:40:49
native Russian government imposed on its own00:40:53
own citizens00:40:55
by banning a00:40:57
significant part of the products from the00:40:58
European Union And thus, in a short time, our00:41:02
prices increased quite significantly00:41:05
For many types of food, yes00:41:07
Of course, there were certain projects00:41:09
that made it possible to increase00:41:11
productivity in the Agrarian sector But00:41:13
in general, it is certain that this00:41:18
will have an effect in the long term, but in In general,00:41:21
it was rather harmful at the moment. You understand why it was00:41:24
useful and more painful for Russian00:41:26
citizens. Well,00:41:29
I rather look at the whole food story in this way.00:41:31
Well then, let's take00:41:34
another topic00:41:35
now, I lost it, it00:41:39
ran away from me. QIWI bank The Central Bank revoked the00:41:41
license of the Qiwi bank And As far as I00:41:44
understand, QIWI Bank promises to pay all the00:41:47
money that citizens deposited into its00:41:50
accounts. It seems like there is no threat that people00:41:53
will be left without money. But nevertheless,00:41:55
what is the connection with the revocation of00:41:57
the license? Let me say. So,00:42:00
I know this story very superficially,00:42:02
as if in general I don’t00:42:05
follow the banking supervision procedure very closely00:42:07
because this is, let’s say, an area00:42:10
that requires knowledge of a fairly00:42:11
extensive amount of documentation. But as a00:42:14
rule of this kind, I can’t00:42:16
say that this happened in relation to the00:42:18
bank for sure, but because, again, I00:42:20
only watched the news in this case,00:42:24
I read something analytical there but00:42:27
was not directly familiar with the procedure00:42:29
that concerned the Qiwi bank, so what we are talking about00:42:32
here is that, as usual, the revocation of00:42:35
a license is connected either with the fact that the bank is00:42:37
conducting, let’s say, an unscrupulous business, an00:42:41
unscrupulous business. This means that00:42:43
it a so-called hole in00:42:45
Capital arises, a hole in Capital. This means00:42:47
that, for example, he has much00:42:50
less assets than liabilities; the banking business, he00:42:52
understands, is that his assets and00:42:54
liabilities should be approximately the same,00:42:56
unlike, for example, the activities of00:42:58
some other organization. Well,00:43:00
it’s clear that the balance sheet with a balance sheet But00:43:02
if we take the overall result, we can00:43:05
see that some company may00:43:07
have quite more liabilities than00:43:10
its own assets; some00:43:12
team, on the contrary,00:43:14
may have much more of its own assets than liabilities to other counterparties,00:43:16
and so on in banks this is not the case. When a00:43:19
capital hole appears, this means that the00:43:20
bank, for example, collects deposits but does not00:43:23
conduct real banking activities.00:43:24
That is, it is not transformed by the00:43:26
population into something that is a00:43:28
banking product that brings it income00:43:30
and it can directly provide part of this income for00:43:32
those from whom he00:43:33
attracted these deposits, if00:43:37
this hole in the Capital becomes very00:43:39
significant, if this difference00:43:41
turns into something so downright00:43:43
terrifying, as a rule, they examine the sanctions of the00:43:46
Central Bank and the bank is taken00:43:47
directly for reorganization, the00:43:50
recovery of this bank is underway Well, and then00:43:52
various the kind of procedures that are00:43:55
associated with the return of this bank to00:43:57
the market. Well, let’s say they can00:43:59
sell it to the new owners. Well, there may00:44:02
be different options here, but with regard to the Qiwi00:44:05
bank, as far as I understand, the main00:44:07
complaint concerned the fact that one00:44:11
way or another, operations were carried out00:44:14
that were similar for cash-out operations,00:44:17
apparently this is precisely what the00:44:20
Central Bank is not happy with and,00:44:22
accordingly, in connection with this there was a revocation00:44:24
of the license, but00:44:26
I won’t tell you anything deeper here, that is,00:44:28
this does not look like a redistribution of00:44:30
property in this case, I do00:44:33
n’t believe in this Well, that is, it’s not00:44:36
something so large-scale00:44:38
that it’s worth pressing, you understand00:44:42
well, but could this be connected with the00:44:45
introduction of a digital ruble because I00:44:47
read an assumption that the Russian00:44:49
state wants to control00:44:50
such Internet translations as much as possible, and00:44:53
kiwi allows you to translate quite uncontrollably00:44:57
money somewhere Well, look, the00:44:59
fact is that there are various00:45:01
kinds of services like this00:45:03
that allow you00:45:05
to transfer funds there through various00:45:08
channels, they really have00:45:10
certain risks there, financial00:45:12
stability is not something the Russian00:45:13
Central Bank came up with. This is a00:45:15
global practice. Yes, and therefore00:45:18
the question is: what to do there with the same00:45:20
cryptocurrencies it is00:45:21
quite acute, not only in Russia it is00:45:23
acute in all other countries,00:45:25
yes Well, that is, really, as if00:45:27
you are the Central Bank, you want to00:45:30
control the monetary00:45:33
system and the banking system in general, the credit00:45:35
system that has place and within the00:45:38
jurisdiction proposed to you If00:45:40
within this jurisdiction you have a00:45:42
significant part of the funds that flow00:45:45
in parallel Yes and, accordingly, are in00:45:47
no way controlled by you, and at the same time00:45:49
this whole story can somehow00:45:51
inflate into something very significant and00:45:53
where different things are invested kind of00:45:55
economic agents, and if this thing00:45:57
somehow deflates and goes bankrupt,00:46:00
you may have a systemic risk00:46:01
that you cannot even stop00:46:03
because you, as a regulator, simply do not00:46:05
have the tools to influence this00:46:07
channel. And this is important, and therefore in this00:46:10
case, yes, of course we we can say00:46:12
that, of course, such flows are00:46:14
unpleasant for any regulator. But I00:46:17
would not connect this directly with the00:46:19
digital ruble. In general, it seems to me00:46:21
that the story regarding the digital00:46:23
ruble is very exaggerated, and the00:46:25
Bank of Russia itself does not yet particularly00:46:27
understand how much this story00:46:30
is expedient and for the most part we are00:46:32
talking about piloting, that is, well, I00:46:36
can’t connect it all with the digital ruble.00:46:38
That is, if we talk00:46:40
about, let’s say, some interest of the Bank of00:46:44
Russia in terms of control over the activities of00:46:47
kiwi, then this interest lies in00:46:50
financial risks stability Here and00:46:51
now and not in relation to maintaining a00:46:53
digital00:46:54
ruble in the sense of exaggeration This story with the00:46:57
digital00:46:58
ruble Well, look What is a00:47:00
digital ruble in general? A digital ruble is00:47:02
such a third form of money will be. We have00:47:04
cash, we have00:47:06
non-cash funds and the digital ruble00:47:09
is this is such non-cash00:47:12
cash Why can we call it that, we00:47:15
can call it that because let’s just say it’s00:47:18
digital money that has the00:47:21
status of cash in fact money But00:47:24
which00:47:26
was not emirated in order to00:47:29
receive these funds you need an00:47:31
appropriate amount of cash00:47:34
money either from a non-cash account Yes,00:47:36
transfer funds and then you00:47:38
will have something in this wallet or you will have a part of00:47:41
the income that you receive there that must00:47:44
be paid in these same digital00:47:46
rubles, somehow force you to00:47:48
use this currency Yes00:47:51
digital currency from the central bank of00:47:53
instruments, as it were not really, that00:47:55
is, in order to really00:47:57
force everyone to use only the00:47:58
digital ruble, it is necessary that taxes00:48:01
can only be paid in digital rubles,00:48:03
for example, but00:48:05
they won’t do anything like that Well, good And if, for00:48:06
example, they start paying salaries at00:48:08
least to state-owned companies in00:48:10
digital rubles, part of them No, well, well some00:48:13
can be transferred, but then00:48:14
convertibility goes from one Wallet00:48:16
to another. Well, they won’t like it. How did you00:48:19
receive funds by bank transfer? Yes, at00:48:21
first you received your salaries00:48:22
directly in cash, then more and more often you00:48:24
began to receive a card. But if you wish,00:48:26
you can withdraw funds from the card.00:48:28
the same thing can be done in00:48:30
relation to digital currency, that is, well, to be00:48:32
honest, I don’t see any00:48:35
full-fledged risks here; rather, the task is to00:48:41
involve, as a00:48:44
whole, in the banking system the banking00:48:46
services of those people who are00:48:48
today they are not involved at all Yes,00:48:51
through this channel I don’t know00:48:54
how successful it will be, I don’t know00:48:55
how necessary it will be Well, this is00:48:57
what people are actively discussing, maybe00:48:59
some government contracts will be00:49:00
directly00:49:05
financed with the help of the digital ruble and this there will be an increase in00:49:10
the level of monitoring of these funds yes00:49:12
Well, maybe something like that is planned Well, I do00:49:14
n’t see here, to be honest with you, I’ll tell you00:49:15
any00:49:16
significant risks Well, for now, in any00:49:19
case, based on what I know,00:49:22
the story itself is very exaggerated, do you think00:49:24
that fears about increasing control on the00:49:27
part of the state in terms of the turnover of Du in00:49:30
this context, I’m sure00:49:32
that it is in this context that this00:49:34
fear is inflated; we have many00:49:37
more areas of current control that are00:49:40
much more dangerous, much more00:49:42
serious than the digital ruble, which is still00:49:44
unknown how widespread it will be00:49:46
Yeah, I’d also like to talk about Armenia00:49:48
Nikola Pashinyan announced the00:49:50
freezing of Yerevan’s participation in the CSTO and, in00:49:53
principle, made a number of claims against00:49:54
Russia, probably for Russia from an00:49:56
economic point of view this is not particularly00:49:58
important Well, as if Armenia is not the most00:50:00
serious economic partner00:50:03
about the political I think we won’t now00:50:05
But for00:50:06
Armenia, who can Armenia find as a00:50:09
senior partner now instead of00:50:11
Russia is very difficult for me to say to answer00:50:14
this question, I honestly don’t know00:50:18
Well, I can’t say in relation to00:50:21
the economy, I think that everything is basically one way00:50:23
or another will work according to the same rules. I00:50:25
think that the regime of opportunities00:50:29
for civilian passports and not even00:50:32
for foreign passports will remain from one side to the00:50:35
other. I think that00:50:38
trade flows will continue on their own.00:50:41
Armenia is now experiencing more advantages00:50:43
from the situation that exists in Russia00:50:47
which has developed in Russia, the need for00:50:48
parallel imports, what are the downsides? Yes,00:50:50
including with relocants, so it00:50:53
seems to me that this is00:50:56
a plot that will not affect that00:51:00
system that has already been formed00:51:02
after the war began, but you can00:51:04
estimate what percentage of parallel00:51:06
imports goes through00:51:07
Armenia Well, I won’t tell you at the moment, you00:51:09
can estimate it accurately Yes Well, plus or minus The fact00:51:12
that it has grown significantly is00:51:15
true, that is, and it has grown significantly00:51:18
back in 2022. That is, even in the twenty-00:51:20
third year, these flows did not decrease,00:51:22
you need to look at it. Just look at this I00:51:24
don’t have00:51:25
[music]00:51:28
data on hand, so I won’t tell you, but this is a00:51:30
significant volume for Armenia, at00:51:32
least for sure. Well, we just all constantly00:51:34
hear about Kazakhstan. How is such a00:51:36
serious share? Here in the total volume of00:51:38
parallel imports, at least understand00:51:39
plus or minus Armenia What place00:51:41
is it in? Well, that is, he has 1% 10 50 there,00:51:44
you can somehow say this without exact numbers.00:51:47
Or it still won’t work. I wo00:51:50
n’t say right now because00:51:51
I’ll say later it won’t be a very correct00:51:54
correct interpretation. But I can00:51:57
say that Armenia’s place is important in00:52:00
the structure of the parallel world Well, just00:52:02
if Armenia stops helping Russia00:52:05
bypass sanctions, will Russia become00:52:07
pained and sad from this? Well, of course,00:52:11
once again this is something that is precisely00:52:13
connected with those very local pains00:52:15
that I’m talking about, well probably00:52:17
this entire hour, yes, that is, if someone00:52:19
refuses something, it is very unpleasant,00:52:22
it has to be This is what concerns Well,00:52:25
this means that you have to00:52:27
change everything Yes, you have to again00:52:30
build various parallel00:52:32
structures, various parallel00:52:35
Well, chains uh and uh, the old ones already It would seem that the well-00:52:41
established path just doesn’t work,00:52:43
of course, local pain will appear,00:52:45
talk about Federal pain, no,00:52:47
because Armenia is too small a country and00:52:48
physically00:52:51
such a huge flow cannot pass through it,00:52:53
so that uh, this whole thing will00:52:56
immediately break down and destroy the system00:52:59
that has been building over the last 2 years.00:53:02
The Prosecutor General's Office demanded the00:53:04
nationalization of another large00:53:06
machine tool enterprise. One of the00:53:08
largest in Russia, and in general, this00:53:10
is constant news.00:53:11
The Prosecutor General's Office or someone else demanded to00:53:13
nationalize and then you can00:53:15
substitute a variety of00:53:18
company names. I understand that this is a redistribution00:53:20
of property But how will this affect the00:53:23
work of these enterprises? Can the00:53:25
state ensure the work of these00:53:28
enterprises to the same extent as some00:53:30
private individuals did? Well, it00:53:33
seems to me that here each case needs to be00:53:35
looked at separately Yes, it depends on00:53:36
what exactly it was doing the00:53:39
enterprise since the beginning of the war whether it continued00:53:41
this activity Yes to carry out this00:53:43
activity or not How it00:53:46
continued to carry out this00:53:47
activity Was there00:53:50
production uninterrupted or did the00:53:52
reduction there only concern00:53:54
some expenses and so on yes that00:53:56
is, well, the military here is very strongly depends00:53:59
on each specific case, most00:54:01
likely initially it will be a question of00:54:04
transferring the growth of property to the balance sheet,00:54:07
after which they may well sell it. As00:54:10
they say, under the hammer to those people who need to00:54:12
sell, I see it like this, but there is some00:54:15
practical benefit for the state in00:54:17
this or these are exclusively gifts to00:54:19
dear friends, it seems to me that this is the second00:54:24
with some kind of rational explanation for such00:54:27
decisions. Well, how are such decisions00:54:31
quite political? It seems to me that they are00:54:33
literally politically dictated Yes, we00:54:35
must understand that if a company00:54:38
worked in Russia after February of the00:54:40
twenty-second year there and continues there00:54:43
conduct my business, but at the same time00:54:45
constantly talk about leaving, yes, or00:54:48
didn’t leave right away, but said that I’m00:54:50
stopping my business, I’m thinking about00:54:52
how to sell off assets, as if00:54:54
getting assets are idle They seem to00:54:57
have capacity, but as if00:54:58
production is not carried out, that means as if something00:55:01
needs to be decided with this company Well,00:55:03
there is a hint, you either Say directly00:55:06
that no, we are staying in Russia, working00:55:08
here and not going anywhere, it’s like our00:55:11
decision, nothing else, we are here,00:55:14
dear friends, we can’t tell you00:55:16
yes or let’s to already resolve this issue in00:55:18
relation to the transfer of ownership to, let’s00:55:22
say, those hands that00:55:25
will begin to quite actively develop these capacities,00:55:28
so of course there is a practical benefit in00:55:29
this regard, but at the same time00:55:32
the procedure itself, it seems to me that it is very much00:55:35
tied to distributing it to00:55:37
specific hands, that is, if to what extent I00:55:40
understand that if it is possible00:55:42
to make a deal before this00:55:44
procedure itself, it is done. Yes, but if00:55:47
this deal does not happen, then00:55:49
some kind of mechanism is needed, and this is the mechanism. As I00:55:51
understand it, it00:55:53
was invented through00:55:56
the prosecutor’s office. Well then, we have one more question00:55:59
very soon elections are00:56:01
less than a month away Is it worth expecting that00:56:03
after the elections the dollar and euro exchange rates00:56:06
will skyrocket and the ruble exchange rate, on the contrary, will fall00:56:09
into a hole? By the way, I even remember that00:56:13
one of my friends made interesting00:56:15
calculations. Is it even worth linking various kinds of00:56:18
indicators00:56:20
to the electoral cycle, and as far as I00:56:23
remember, the dollar00:56:25
is not at all connected with the00:56:27
electoral cycle, that is,00:56:29
anything can happen there, it can behave00:56:31
differently. Well, there’s just a feeling that00:56:33
now the exchange rate is being artificially held00:56:35
there by the central bank or someone else. And as00:56:39
soon as there is a political need00:56:40
to hold it it’s below 100 rubles,00:56:44
all the questions will disappear at once Well, let’s say what does it00:56:49
mean to be held by the central bank?00:56:51
You must understand that we still00:56:52
operate under the conditions of a floating00:56:54
exchange rate regime. A floating exchange rate regime00:56:56
is a regime within00:56:58
which the exchange rate is formed under the00:57:00
influence of demand factors and00:57:01
proposals here the Central Bank00:57:04
used to be able to influence all this, but with the00:57:07
help of currency interventions, now the00:57:13
central bank does not have the opportunity to directly influence the dollar exchange rate with the help of such interventions00:57:14
because the reserves are frozen and,00:57:16
accordingly, it cannot simply00:57:19
carry out this kind of transactions on the00:57:21
foreign exchange exchange. everything can be done00:57:23
with the help of what00:57:25
additional tools? It seems to me00:57:27
that the various tools that come00:57:29
from the government of Ani, the00:57:31
Central Bank, work much more powerfully here.00:57:33
This is all about the00:57:35
mandatory share of the sale of foreign currency00:57:37
earnings, for example, yes, these requirements do00:57:39
not come from the Central Bank,00:57:41
these decisions were made by the government introduced00:57:43
and so on, yes, this is a different kind of00:57:46
tax burden on exports,00:57:48
an additional one that should increase00:57:49
the volume, including sales of00:57:52
foreign exchange earnings on Russian markets. Well, it00:57:54
seems like how this can be influenced,00:57:56
including through00:57:57
cross-rates, various types of procedures00:57:59
there the so-called mirroring, but00:58:01
I’m just leaving, in particular, they are00:58:03
heavy, we just00:58:04
won’t be able to sort them out here now. But for the most part,00:58:06
this kind of indirect effect is direct, it’s00:58:09
very difficult to stay the course, you know, in order to00:58:11
keep it from a very strong collapse, the00:58:14
central bank will have to introduce00:58:15
financial repression the kind that you and I00:58:17
observed around March of twenty-00:58:20
two Thank you very much Grigory00:58:22
Bazhenov was on our air the author of a blog about00:58:24
economics and economic science we have a legal00:58:27
link under the video00:58:28
Subscribe immediately after us The real00:58:30
colonel with Alexander Minkina and at 2000:58:32
o’clock the program 2024 with Andrei Zubov,00:58:35
don’t go anywhere. Thank you all and all the00:58:47
best.Description:
Поддержать Живой гвоздь: с карт российских банков https://pay.cloudtips.ru/p/7edd7c0e с карт иностранных банков https://www.donationalerts.com/r/zhivgvozd Boosty: https://boosty.to/zhivoygvozd Криптокошелёк: bc1qmdt96xvsun9a8qxvgakfx9gqy4x72penx5rm2p Trust Wallet: https://link.trustwallet.com/send?address=bc1qmdt96xvsun9a8qxvgakfx9gqy4x72penx5rm2p&asset=c0 00:00 В эфире Григорий Баженов, автор блога об экономике и экономической науке Furydrops @FURYDROPS. 00:50 — 2 года санкций. Итоги 10:28 — Реальный рост цен 20:13 — Результат ухода зарубежных компаний 22:17 — Есть ли кадровый голод? 24:32 — Экономика перед выборами 30:40 — Санкции разгоняют экономику 33:24 — Новый пакет санкций против России 34:21 — Новые пошлины на импорт 36:25 — Покупайте книги в магазине Дилетант! 37:44 — Латвия запретила ввоз сельхоз продукции из РФ и РБ 41:32 — Киви-банк возвращается 49:47 — Выйдет ли Армения из ОДКБ? Ведущая: Лиза Аникина. Телеграм-канал Григория Баженова: https://t.me/furydrops Телеграм-канал Лизы Аникиной: https://t.me/echo_episod Княжна Тараканова — героиня шестого тома комикса серии «Спасти». Княжна, чьё происхождение, да и имя, остаются тайной, выдавала себя за княгиню Елизавету Владимирскую — незаконнорождённую дочь императрицы Елизаветы Петровны. Оформляйте заказ на сайте diletant.shop! А ещё на сайте теперь можно оформить подписку на печатную версию журнала Дилетант! Попробуйте: https://diletant.shop/ 📌 Живой гвоздь в аудиоформате: https://podcast.ru/1616175210 🔔 Последние новости и анонсы программ с YouTube-канала «Живой гвоздь», а также контент от наших постоянных гостей и экспертов на официальном телеграм-канале: https://t.me/livegvozd Мобильное приложение "Эха": любимые программы в формате радиоприёмника. Простой интерфейс. Работа в фоновом режиме. Расписание эфиров. Скачать: в AppStore: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/%D1%8D%D1%85%D0%BE-online/id1639907671 в PlayMarket: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=online.echofm.app Сайт "Эха": https://echofm.online/ (если не открывается – ссылка на рабочую версию сайта всегда есть в тг-канале ЭХО FM https://telegram.org/ Подписаться на Youtube-канал Дилетант: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuIE7-5QzeAR6EdZXwDRwuQ?sub_confirmation=1 Магазин Дилетант: https://diletant.shop/ По вопросам взаимодействия: [email protected]
Preparing download options
* — If the video is playing in a new tab, go to it, then right-click on the video and select "Save video as..."
** — Link intended for online playback in specialized players
Questions about downloading video
How can I download "2 года санкций, рост цен, возвращение QIWI, Армения и ОДКБ / Баженов: Персонально ваш/23.02.24" video?
http://unidownloader.com/ website is the best way to download a video or a separate audio track if you want to do without installing programs and extensions.
The UDL Helper extension is a convenient button that is seamlessly integrated into YouTube, Instagram and OK.ru sites for fast content download.
UDL Client program (for Windows) is the most powerful solution that supports more than 900 websites, social networks and video hosting sites, as well as any video quality that is available in the source.
UDL Lite is a really convenient way to access a website from your mobile device. With its help, you can easily download videos directly to your smartphone.
Which format of "2 года санкций, рост цен, возвращение QIWI, Армения и ОДКБ / Баженов: Персонально ваш/23.02.24" video should I choose?
The best quality formats are FullHD (1080p), 2K (1440p), 4K (2160p) and 8K (4320p). The higher the resolution of your screen, the higher the video quality should be. However, there are other factors to consider: download speed, amount of free space, and device performance during playback.
Why does my computer freeze when loading a "2 года санкций, рост цен, возвращение QIWI, Армения и ОДКБ / Баженов: Персонально ваш/23.02.24" video?
The browser/computer should not freeze completely! If this happens, please report it with a link to the video. Sometimes videos cannot be downloaded directly in a suitable format, so we have added the ability to convert the file to the desired format. In some cases, this process may actively use computer resources.
How can I download "2 года санкций, рост цен, возвращение QIWI, Армения и ОДКБ / Баженов: Персонально ваш/23.02.24" video to my phone?
You can download a video to your smartphone using the website or the PWA application UDL Lite. It is also possible to send a download link via QR code using the UDL Helper extension.
How can I download an audio track (music) to MP3 "2 года санкций, рост цен, возвращение QIWI, Армения и ОДКБ / Баженов: Персонально ваш/23.02.24"?
The most convenient way is to use the UDL Client program, which supports converting video to MP3 format. In some cases, MP3 can also be downloaded through the UDL Helper extension.
How can I save a frame from a video "2 года санкций, рост цен, возвращение QIWI, Армения и ОДКБ / Баженов: Персонально ваш/23.02.24"?
This feature is available in the UDL Helper extension. Make sure that "Show the video snapshot button" is checked in the settings. A camera icon should appear in the lower right corner of the player to the left of the "Settings" icon. When you click on it, the current frame from the video will be saved to your computer in JPEG format.
What's the price of all this stuff?
It costs nothing. Our services are absolutely free for all users. There are no PRO subscriptions, no restrictions on the number or maximum length of downloaded videos.