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最近,關於美國眾議院議長佩洛西8月訪問台灣的消息,炒得沸沸揚揚。週四(7月28日),拜登與習近平進行了最長的一次通話,台灣問題也是通話的重點之一。佩洛西訪台時,中美會不會擦槍走火,引發第4次台海危機?大家對此都很關心,今天來聊聊這件事。 00:00 佩洛西要訪台? 01:33 中美都面臨國內問題 大概率是「鬥而不破」 05:41 三次台海危機 美國都出手 10:21 台灣漢光演習 吸取俄烏戰爭教訓 💥 中美都面臨國內問題 大概率是「鬥而不破」 佩洛西一直有著反共鬥士的形象,雖然總統拜登和軍方態度曖昧,但作為三權分立的一極,眾議院議長是美國政壇的「三號人物」,她要去哪裡,白宮還是無權阻攔的。 雖然中美關係惡化的大趨勢很難逆轉,但我覺得,習近平如果要爭取「三連任」的話,保持中美「鬥而不破」可能是最佳的選擇。 習雖然經常不按常理出牌,但實力決定一切。畢竟美國現在仍是全世界最強大的國家,美國的市場、技術、資金、人才漢金融等,都處於世界領先地位。中方有求於美方,多於美方有求於中方。 💥 三次台海危機 美國都出手 這次會不會引發第四次台海危機?過去三次台海危機,最後都是美國出手幫忙,讓危機落幕,沒有直擊波及到台灣本島。 如果這次佩洛西最後真的訪問台灣的話,雖然中國可能不敢對美國動武,但可能會加強襲擾和威脅台灣空海域。 🇹🇼 台灣漢光演習 吸取俄烏戰爭教訓 事也湊巧,台灣的「漢光38號演習」在7月25日至29日也登場了。漢光演習實兵操演25日起,在全台各地陸續展開。 這次漢光演習除了經典的反登陸作戰、聯合登陸作戰、空中和海上截擊作戰之外,還有萬安45號全民防空演習,更首度秀出國土防衛所使用的「戰壕」系統,以30天的存糧對來犯解放軍進行突擊作戰。 - 🤝 合作邀約、意見反饋 👉🏻 [email protected] - 💎 【馬克時空】其他平台,歡迎大家關注✨✨✨ 🚀 Facebook ➡️ https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser 🛩 Instagram ➡️ https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser 🛰 Telegram ➡️ https://t.me/markspacechannel
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