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00:00:25
[music]00:00:40
[music]00:00:50
Good evening everyone, you are watching and listening to the00:00:53
Youtube channel live nail in the studio of Liza00:00:55
Nikina and a very strange00:00:57
situation is developing, the program is called Special00:00:58
Opinion of Nikolai Petrov, whom the00:01:00
Russian authorities consider a foreign00:01:02
agent, but unfortunately we did00:01:04
not find Nikolai Vladimirovich, he disappeared without a trace,00:01:06
therefore Nikita Vasilenko is sitting opposite me now00:01:08
Nikita hello Lisa00:01:10
Hello to all our viewers again00:01:12
today yes Nikolai Petrovna Agent I’m00:01:14
not a foreign Agent yet so you can00:01:16
throw out this design Well, not until00:01:19
the end of the broadcast But until the moment00:01:21
Nikolai Vladimirovich is found Yes, I00:01:23
hope that after all, he will appear,00:01:24
for sure many of you came to00:01:26
listen to his expert00:01:28
opinion, but for now Nikolai Vladimirovich00:01:30
is missing Nikita’s thought and we will discuss the00:01:32
main news of today. Sorry00:01:33
Nikita. I understand that you have already said everything you could on00:01:35
the contrary. On the contrary, I am a00:01:37
certified political scientist. Sorry. Lord,00:01:39
and who else if not me to remember the pause on00:01:42
air in this case? Moreover,00:01:44
I bear personal responsibility00:01:45
because Nikolai Vladimirovich00:01:47
was my teacher; he taught00:01:49
Russian politics to me in the third year of the00:01:52
Higher School of Economics, so00:01:54
personal responsibility, that is,00:01:56
we have a change the student replaces the00:01:58
teacher at the moment when the teacher, for00:01:59
some reason, ignores our calls00:02:02
and does not get in touch. Well then, I00:02:04
will ask you questions as a00:02:06
political scientist, as a real expert, which00:02:08
in principle Surely you can be00:02:10
at least with a diploma, that must have00:02:13
sounded something not very good, in fact, you00:02:14
can probably be Nikita, I00:02:16
really respect the expertise, let's00:02:18
discuss the news today because00:02:20
unfortunately there are a lot of them and everything that00:02:22
happens is on the path of escalation, the00:02:24
worst thing is that we can00:02:26
combine this principle with our entire00:02:28
news agenda, wait for the escalation or the00:02:30
death agony now it seems to me that there are00:02:32
different opinions to remove Well, it’s too early to talk00:02:34
about the death agony not all the horsemen of00:02:36
the Apocalypse have appeared On the horizon for now there00:02:39
should only be00:02:41
Yes of course the Four Horsemen so far we have00:02:44
only seen the Pestilence and they are the Moore We haven’t00:02:46
seen it yet, we have seen the plague and accordingly00:02:49
Yes, this is the plague and war that remained00:02:52
pestilence, or rather hunger and death, but let’s not talk00:02:56
about sad things. Yes, this is not yet the death00:02:59
throes and agony of who you want00:03:02
to ask about whom, it seems to me that00:03:04
someone in the Kremlin is organizing and trying to00:03:07
throw all their strength into a solution this00:03:09
crisis that began on February 24, or the00:03:12
West, for example, is now dying and is00:03:15
ready to make concessions in order to00:03:18
also stop and solve its internal00:03:20
problems, thereby, how can I say, so00:03:23
that00:03:24
the war ends and stops pushing the00:03:27
internal agenda there in Europe,00:03:29
for example, well, wait, it seems to me that there are00:03:31
prerequisites in order to perceive the00:03:33
West as something organizing, no,00:03:36
they acted as they did and continue00:03:37
to act00:03:39
Federal Television00:03:42
Alekseevich who says here are the sources00:03:45
It’s just that someone is not00:03:46
familiar enough with the sources,00:03:48
indeed00:03:50
the agenda, for example, of the energy00:03:52
crisis in the West is quite acute and00:03:55
that’s me again without referring to our00:03:57
federal TV, which constantly says that00:03:59
today the very thing that everyone has been00:04:01
dreaming about for a long time will happen: Europe00:04:04
will capitulate because it will run out of00:04:06
food, water, supplies, gas will turn off everything00:04:09
else, no, there is no such thing, but at the same time, if you00:04:11
watch some news, local and00:04:15
really people this is very00:04:16
worrying in the same Germany e receives00:04:19
large bills for heating and the German00:04:24
people, for example, ask the question With their00:04:26
government Why is it so clear that00:04:28
the government is trying to solve these00:04:30
problems somehow subsidize and possibly00:04:33
get out of this crisis But the fact that00:04:35
the problem does not exist we00:04:37
we can’t talk about it, it exists, it’s acute,00:04:39
and yes, we have to admit that the Kremlin00:04:42
is trying to bend Europe precisely through00:04:45
energy blackmail, and recently00:04:47
news came, literally in the wake of00:04:49
today’s shelling of Ukraine, that00:04:52
Ukraine will limit its supplies of00:04:54
electricity to Europe; it had such a large00:04:57
percentage of00:04:59
electricity supplied to Europe and00:05:03
now they are stopping on October 11 Apparently,00:05:05
taking into account the00:05:07
damaged ones, the Kremlin achieved its goal, namely, it00:05:10
undermined the energy security of not00:05:12
only Ukraine but also the European Union.00:05:15
Sorry, I swear by the news that I just00:05:17
saw on the base’s TV channel, it literally00:05:19
just appeared in Crimea, an explosion00:05:21
injured a child, according to preliminary00:05:22
According to this, an explosion occurred in Dzhankoy in the00:05:25
area of Sadovaya Street, an00:05:27
eleven-year-old girl with Roma was injured early and her00:05:29
shoulder was taken to the hospital. In00:05:30
addition, at least two00:05:32
houses were damaged. And the cause of the explosion. And in general, no00:05:35
details are given here, I hope00:05:37
that more information will appear that this is00:05:40
not some kind of... then it’s fake because so far00:05:42
the truth is nothing is clear, in any case,00:05:45
this is the most tragic thing is that on both00:05:48
sides of the conflict in general let’s start with the fact00:05:49
that on February 24 Ukraine is constantly00:05:52
being bombed, now a00:05:54
response has flown in the direction of Russia00:05:56
Russia, too, at least the border00:05:58
territories are being bombed00:06:01
What if Let's talk about Crimea and talk about00:06:02
this case, of course, we won't00:06:05
analyze it specifically here yet. But it turns out that00:06:07
only Russia considers Crimea to Russia,00:06:10
for example,00:06:12
most of it I don't know. Let's say00:06:15
Nicaragua or I can go with someone to00:06:17
some other countries of this00:06:19
island type, let's say00:06:23
part of it in the world, most of the world considers00:06:25
Crimea to be Ukraine, and at the very least this is00:06:28
legalized by those explosions and bombings00:06:31
that come from Ukraine on Crimea00:06:33
and00:06:34
it is clear that, for example, Western viewers00:06:37
can receive this under the sauce that00:06:39
Ukraine is going to liberate its territories.00:06:42
Listen, that’s why right now I00:06:45
mean missile attacks on the territory of00:06:47
Ukraine then the question is probably the main one00:06:48
Why not earlier Why now00:06:50
Russia decided to attack Ukrainian00:06:53
cities very correct same questions00:06:55
flock Choose shooters Therefore from the point of view00:06:57
uh we are a little different00:07:00
you ask the right questions why00:07:02
only now when from this it was necessary to00:07:04
start, but here Vladimir Putin would00:07:07
answer you that all this time Russia was conducting a00:07:10
special military operation and thus00:07:13
so that there00:07:16
were no casualties among the civilian population. We,00:07:18
of course, saw the terrible bombing of the00:07:21
same Mariupol as a city in ruins00:07:25
Now within the framework Russian Federation00:07:28
from the point of view of our legislation and00:07:31
Yes, the neatness is obvious, but again,00:07:36
uh, returning to these missile strikes.00:07:39
Apparently these are new stages.00:07:42
Apparently, there really is00:07:43
some kind of plan00:07:45
and it’s not just that these falsehoods appeared in parallel00:07:48
that even not stuffing, but00:07:51
specifically informational statements that00:07:53
Russia is preparing a joint00:07:56
military group for Belarus and Apparently,00:07:59
some new possible00:08:01
offensive operation with a large00:08:03
number of casualties awaits us here too Unfortunately, we00:08:05
can only watch and hope for00:08:07
the best but are preparing for the worst, but now00:08:09
let’s do it yes yes yes,00:08:12
it is with great pleasure that I want to announce00:08:16
that political scientist,00:08:18
foreign agent Nikolai Petrov, is our00:08:22
guest and Lisa00:08:25
gave Hello,00:08:30
I’ll basically ask you the same question00:08:33
that I asked Nikita just now while00:08:35
we were waiting for you here. Why right now00:08:37
I have in I see rocket attacks on00:08:39
Ukrainian cities Why00:08:41
didn’t they do this earlier?00:08:43
I think that essentially there are only00:08:48
two phases left to continue this war in00:08:52
a situation where00:08:53
it is impossible to00:08:56
reverse everything in the usual military way.00:09:00
As you can see, the Ukrainian00:09:02
counteroffensive00:09:03
has been developing for several weeks now, and00:09:07
the temptation has arisen00:09:10
to strike at civilian infrastructure in order to00:09:13
so that00:09:14
Ukrainians feel very strongly all the00:09:19
hardships of the war, especially now on the eve of the00:09:22
cold season when both00:09:25
electricity and heat00:09:27
are becoming an increasingly important fact.00:09:30
That is, out of despair.00:09:33
I think so. I think so. I think so. We have seen00:09:36
the situation. When the war in the last00:09:39
month and a half is00:09:42
not developing at all according to plan. Russian military00:09:44
command all attempts to turn00:09:47
the situation around by conventional military means were not00:09:50
crowned with success; if mobilization gives00:09:53
any results, it will not be immediately and00:09:57
the Kremlin first tried to00:09:59
turn the situation around to its advantage00:10:02
politically with the annexation of the00:10:05
occupied regions and now also with00:10:09
shelling of civilian infrastructure it00:10:12
is clear that it is quite perhaps sabotage in00:10:16
relation to the Crimean bridge played00:10:20
some role here, but it seems to me that the transition of the00:10:23
war to this phase was essentially an00:10:26
inevitable consequence of the fact that the00:10:29
Ukrainian army was00:10:32
actually outplaying Russia on the00:10:36
battlefield. By the way, regarding the Crimean00:10:38
bridge, aka Kerch bridge, what do you think00:10:40
Was this really sabotage on the part of the00:10:42
Ukrainian special services or was it a00:10:44
provocation so that Russia could00:10:46
justify striking Ukrainian00:10:49
cities?00:10:50
I think that from the00:10:53
way we see the actions of the00:10:57
Kremlin and the Russian army unfolding, there is a00:11:00
need for00:11:03
some additional confirmation00:11:06
in order to move on to what - the00:11:12
Kremlin is not testing even bloodier, even harsher things,00:11:16
so it seems to me that of course we00:11:20
can talk about00:11:22
sabotage to what extent and how00:11:26
centralized it was planned,00:11:32
it will be called, but the timing of00:11:35
this explosion and the effect is very00:11:39
serious, such a moral and psychological00:11:42
political effect that it00:11:45
certainly had to me seems to indicate00:11:47
that these were real things and not00:11:51
just an attempt to justify their00:11:53
cruelty on the part of the Russians. But if00:11:56
this is really sabotage, then00:11:58
a lot of questions arise about its00:12:01
implementation as to how the Russian00:12:03
special services allowed such Russian special00:12:05
services to be so diligent in looking for government00:12:07
changes. Kovrov is caught by posts. on00:12:09
social networks,00:12:11
poets who perform at some00:12:13
readings but let a full truck of00:12:15
explosives onto the bridge are put in prison,00:12:17
but it seems to me that one and the other are00:12:20
interconnected. That is, firstly, the situation in the00:12:24
Russian special services is hardly00:12:26
fundamentally better than the situation in the00:12:29
Russian armed forces with the same00:12:33
motives with the same organization with the00:12:37
same corruption as we see, and so00:12:41
on, and secondly, we must understand that in00:12:45
general, on such a broad front, but00:12:48
what is today, according to a00:12:51
military expert, and the problems of the00:12:53
Russian army of Ukraine are that very00:12:55
the fronts are stretched out and they cannot,00:12:58
accordingly, ensure full00:13:00
protection of each of its sections. Yes, if we00:13:04
add to this the entire00:13:07
Russian infrastructure where sabotage can occur, it00:13:10
becomes clear that00:13:13
no special services, even so00:13:16
numerous Russian ones, can00:13:19
completely00:13:21
protect these infrastructure facilities from00:13:27
sabotage, especially if these versions00:13:30
are prepared well and are carried out with the00:13:34
participation of such powerful states. But if00:13:38
everything is really that bad in00:13:40
our special services,00:13:42
some kind of repression should probably follow now00:13:44
because, well, right the next day after00:13:46
Putin’s birthday, an explosion occurs on the bridge on the symbol of00:13:48
this Reunification of Crimea and Russia,00:13:50
but this is not a joke This00:13:53
should lead to some serious00:13:54
consequences besides the shelling of Ukrainian00:13:56
cities.00:13:57
I think that from Putin’s behavior it is clear00:14:01
that he and the Kremlin do not believe that there will be an00:14:06
immediate response to all the failures00:14:11
[music] of00:14:17
this Crimean Kerch bridge there have00:14:20
already been a lot of such failures there have been00:14:23
quite a lot information about some00:14:27
secret non-public punishments or00:14:30
pushing into the corner of certain00:14:33
security officials, but actual public00:14:37
displacement does not occur and because the00:14:41
Kremlin always tries to avoid this kind of reaction,00:14:45
without demonstrating00:14:48
that it reacts instantly and00:14:50
therefore recognizes the failures that took00:14:53
place, yes we we only saw the resignation of the00:14:55
commander of the Black Sea Fleet after a00:14:58
whole series of such serious00:15:01
public high-profile failures and setbacks00:15:05
associated with the Black Sea Fleet; in00:15:08
other cases, the person disappears;00:15:17
it’s that he00:15:19
was pushed into his resignation and his punishment was00:15:22
postponed, he may even be kept00:15:25
at home, or maybe not even under house00:15:28
arrest, but at the same time there are no public00:15:30
statements.00:15:32
But we have now seen the appointment of Surikin to the00:15:35
post of commander of the so-called00:15:37
special operation, of whom a lot of people are00:15:39
now saying this. reaction to the post00:15:43
Well, to the statement that you Prigogine00:15:45
was on this public criticism or is it00:15:48
just some kind of delayed action00:15:49
reaction to the failures that have occurred00:15:51
over the past months,00:15:54
I think it’s difficult to assume that00:15:57
Prigogine Kadyrov are some00:16:01
independent factors of00:16:05
Putin somehow very serious personnel00:16:09
decision, the fact that they simultaneously00:16:12
came out with such rather00:16:15
impartial criticism of the Russian00:16:18
senior commanders in Ukraine00:16:22
already means that some kind of00:16:27
decision was already being prepared, or00:16:31
another question is how much of a change of00:16:36
command. And we observed that00:16:39
some Russian commanders00:16:42
were on duty for 2-3 weeks post and then they00:16:45
also changed them Because this is not a magic00:16:47
wand Yes, if the Russian army00:16:49
loses this company today, we00:16:53
understand that this is not the fault of00:16:56
a particular Maldir. And this is largely00:16:59
the fault of the Kremlin, which unleashed this00:17:02
company without completely calculating its00:17:05
conditions, not much of the Russian army they are the00:17:09
abilities and morale of the Ukrainian00:17:12
armed forces. Yes, therefore, Surikin00:17:15
can partly also act as a symbol.00:17:17
Yes, he is called the Macedonian general and he00:17:21
became famous for his atrocities in Syria and before00:17:25
Syria, and in this sense, his appointment00:17:28
may, as it were, mean a public00:17:31
demonstration for the fact that this is00:17:34
what almonds are The Kremlin was accused by Ur00:17:38
nationalists.00:17:39
The Kremlin today is moving to much more00:17:43
severe in terms of cruelty and00:17:47
targeting00:17:49
civilian infrastructure attacks in this00:17:52
war,00:17:53
and what we have now seen is just00:17:55
rocket attacks, this is the activity of00:17:58
Surikin,00:18:00
but I would not say that00:18:03
Surikin as a commander has complete00:18:07
cards, the very fact that he was called up00:18:11
should already, it seems to me, be perceived as a00:18:14
turn of the Kremlin to the side00:18:17
rather as a kind of demonstration and not as the00:18:21
reason for what is happening.00:18:22
And not only the harsh people, when the00:18:29
whole internal policy comes, it changes because of the00:18:32
personality of the First Deputy Head of00:18:34
Administration. This means that the first person00:18:37
decides that today it is necessary to change and00:18:40
selects the performer for those tasks that are00:18:43
today,00:18:45
but regarding Kadyrov and Prigozhin, are00:18:47
n’t these people who really00:18:49
have a certain influence now,00:18:51
given Kadyrov’s activity in military00:18:54
terms, the fact that Prigozhin has officially already00:18:56
admitted that he is that he is involved00:18:58
in dude Wagner whose Well, that00:19:00
information that, in general, he hid00:19:02
for many years and even went to court00:19:04
on this matter, do you think they are just a00:19:06
mouthpiece of the Kremlin and not an independent00:19:07
unit? No, of course they carry out00:19:15
independent actions not only with00:19:18
personnel00:19:20
and detachments of criminals and, uh, private00:19:24
military company and uh Chechen commanders00:19:28
and so on, but it is clear that Kadyrov’s summer children00:19:33
it is clear that their role is not fundamental00:19:38
from the point of view of I think the course of military00:19:41
operations, look at the proportions of how many of00:19:44
their career00:19:45
military personnel, but it is fundamentally00:19:48
worth the point of view that having direct00:19:51
relations with the leader of the country and encouraged by the00:19:55
leader of the country Just received the rank00:19:58
of colonel, they have the opportunity to stand00:20:03
on the sidelines and these are the conflicts that00:20:05
they often had before with the leadership of the00:20:08
armed forces with the generals00:20:10
in command of operations, they become00:20:13
public because they are allowed and00:20:15
this allows the public00:20:18
space of silicon to be brought out without the Kremlin if00:20:20
you don’t see anything00:20:22
now, you should expect that Russia will00:20:24
really lead to some00:20:26
tougher and more brutal actions, given the00:20:29
readiness to carry out shelling and the00:20:31
increase in the number of the Russian army at00:20:33
the expense of the mobilized.00:20:34
I think so, and this is a manifestation of weakness00:20:38
and not strength, this is an admission of the fact that in the usual00:20:42
way00:20:43
resisted the Ukrainian army, Russian00:20:47
troops cannot achieve the tasks00:20:50
that are assigned to them, but the manifestation of00:20:52
weakness certainly sounds very good, but00:20:54
the question is how successful00:20:55
these further brutal actions will be.00:20:58
Well, this is how to evaluate success, of course,00:21:02
hitting civilians, hitting00:21:05
infrastructure, this is00:21:08
probably often easier And the result00:21:12
more demonstrative than if it00:21:16
concerns there I don’t know any00:21:19
Western weapons that were transferred to the00:21:22
Ukrainian armed forces Yes, but on the other00:21:25
hand, with regard to Western00:21:27
weapons and defense,00:21:30
he endlessly reports on how many00:21:34
dozens of the00:21:36
newest howitzers or American00:21:40
highmarks there are and how many thousands of people00:21:44
Ukrainian military00:21:46
were killed as a result,00:21:49
as for infrastructure, this is00:21:51
much more00:21:53
objective, or where everything is visible, you00:21:55
blew up a bridge, blew up a bridge,00:21:58
destroyed a power plant or didn’t destroy it,00:22:03
but just because Putin and all the rest of00:22:06
his henchmen Now it’s unlikely that anything00:22:09
can stop I mean, other than00:22:10
brute force, but what should they be afraid of But00:22:12
they will bomb civilian infrastructure00:22:14
Well, he will tell the world What a nightmare you are Scoundrels00:22:16
terrorists and that it is unlikely that NATO will start00:22:19
a war against Russia directly sanctions00:22:21
Well, we are already in first place in the00:22:25
number of sanctions imposed There is nothing that we are00:22:26
afraid of00:22:27
in this sense00:22:35
and no one is risking loss of face, what00:22:40
remains is the development of the00:22:44
military operation itself, the military and it00:22:47
seems to me that these are the00:22:50
calculations that were made to change00:22:52
public opinion so that the Ukrainians there00:22:56
would put pressure on the leadership and say we will00:23:00
measure up00:23:02
by losing part of our territories or so that00:23:05
Western European00:23:07
citizens too put pressure on their00:23:09
governments in order to stop00:23:12
supporting the military of Ukraine,00:23:14
all of this has not worked out so far and we should00:23:18
probably expect that now, or at00:23:21
least quickly, it will not work out.00:23:23
Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops00:23:25
are achieving quite tangible, very visible00:23:29
and public victories, demonstrating the weakness00:23:32
of this forces, the threat of use of which has00:23:36
always been used by the Kremlin as a00:23:38
trump card,00:23:40
but still we observed all this00:23:43
before Russia began to carry out missile00:23:46
strikes on quite peaceful territories.00:23:48
Well, to what extent is it even possible in the conditions of the00:23:49
current conflict to call some00:23:52
Ukrainian territories peaceful, that’s all I’m leading to00:23:56
Will Russia now use00:23:57
the tactics of the skating rink? We will bomb everything we00:24:00
can reach and then we will go through the00:24:01
ruins and collect what is left there.00:24:04
I think, morally and ethically, the00:24:09
Kremlin does not stop in this sense.00:24:12
These are resources and we see calculations based on00:24:17
which today there is an advantage in00:24:20
shells which allowed the Russian00:24:23
army to organize such a barrage of fire and00:24:26
carry out an offensive or00:24:30
defend effectively, this advantage is not present. And00:24:33
also the toughness that00:24:36
can manifest itself in a new way,00:24:41
it contributes to the fact that those even more00:24:46
modern, even more advanced00:24:49
types of weapons that the West of Ukraine has00:24:52
not yet supplied And that’s all will be00:24:56
supplied in this sense a00:25:00
lot of time Putin00:25:04
is striving to ensure that with these00:25:07
active actions and00:25:09
demonstrative cruelty to achieve00:25:12
some kind of psychological turning point in a00:25:15
fairly short time. How00:25:17
likely is this psychological turning point? It00:25:22
seems to me today there is no reason00:25:25
to think that it will happen in the00:25:29
near future and will most likely lead to00:25:33
tightening on the Ukrainian side and this is00:25:37
actually what we are still seeing. Yes, but00:25:40
Time is Time in Western Europe and there00:25:45
may be some other moods;00:25:47
there may be elections in which those00:25:51
governments that were more active in00:25:54
helping the00:25:55
Ukrainian side militarily leave to take00:25:58
their place others may come.00:26:01
That is, it’s as if the Kremlin is00:26:04
actively waging such a war of attrition,00:26:08
believing that the Russian people are much00:26:10
more patient and in this sense it is00:26:14
easier and longer that the other side00:26:18
cannot endure, but the Russian people00:26:20
you really did not00:26:22
show any obvious active00:26:25
signs of discontent, but I think that it would be00:26:28
wrong to formulate it all categorically,00:26:31
we saw serious00:26:34
protests in a number of places in the republics,00:26:37
why did they end with nothing but00:26:39
arrests? No, it seems to me00:26:42
wrong to say that. Look at the00:26:44
same Kadyrov, here it would seem to you an00:26:47
example of someone completely untied00:26:52
but it’s like the head of some kind of semi-gangster00:26:57
paramilitary structure. And after these00:27:00
protests, it doesn’t matter whether you are detained there.00:27:02
What kind of content and so on, what’s important is00:27:05
that he declares that Chechnya has exceeded00:27:07
the plan for mobilization and that00:27:10
it will not carry out mobilization in this company, and00:27:14
we are the same we see from the00:27:16
Dagestani leadership and in a number of00:27:19
other cases it works00:27:22
Hello Today, when Vladimir Putin00:27:24
held a meeting with members of the Russian Security Council,00:27:26
I don’t know, I00:27:28
had very clear expectations. I thought00:27:30
that we had sabotage on this00:27:34
Crimean Kerch bridge, we fired at the00:27:36
Ukrainian cities Therefore, now they will00:27:39
either declare martial law or00:27:40
outline a terrorist operation. Well, that00:27:43
is, they are conducting some kind of new regime and00:27:44
suddenly this did not happen. Why00:27:46
Why does the status of the so-called00:27:49
special operation not change?00:27:50
I think that, as in all other00:27:53
cases, the00:27:55
benefits and costs of what00:28:00
can be done are assessed But it’s possible to change this00:28:03
status, but uh, what exactly00:28:06
can the Kremlin achieve in this way, and so it00:28:10
went to very serious uh00:28:13
psychological costs associated with the fact00:28:16
that the war that used to be somewhere on00:28:19
TV and has come far away In fact, in00:28:22
everyone Russian House Declare00:28:25
martial law to00:28:29
conscripts, for example.00:28:31
Well, I think that we will still see some things00:28:35
and we will see tightening. But the Kremlin,00:28:39
as in the case of the00:28:42
Wagnerites Yes, prefers to do00:28:44
something, including breaking all00:28:46
conceivable laws of the Russian Federation, not00:28:50
publicly and not declaratively, how00:28:53
criminals can be caught in a war, how they00:28:57
can be promised pardons, and so on,00:28:59
yes. The same thing can be done without00:29:02
any declaration of martial law and00:29:05
without any kind of attracting00:29:08
public attention to any steps00:29:12
and the announcement in statements of the Kremlin,00:29:15
simply by tightening the screws if00:29:18
what kind of tightening of the screws can we00:29:20
expect now? It is clear that the forecasts in the00:29:22
current situation are as00:29:24
vague as possible, but nevertheless,00:29:26
in your opinion, where exactly and what can be00:29:28
tightened now?00:29:32
Honestly, it seems to me that wherever00:29:36
something can be tightened, everything has already been00:29:39
tightened many times and even twisted and00:29:44
here there is no such magic wand00:29:47
in the hands of the Kremlin, some of which include00:29:51
nuclear weapons that00:29:54
can play this role, which would allow one to00:29:57
quickly and dramatically radically change00:30:01
the situation in its favor. Yes, and any00:30:04
movement, including mobilization, It00:30:07
has its own negative consequences And not00:30:10
only in terms of public sentiment,00:30:12
but also in terms of demonstrating that neither the00:30:17
regime nor the army are capable of carrying out00:30:20
any serious systemic00:30:23
operation of any kind as large as the implementation of00:30:26
all their poor ineffective00:30:30
organization Yes And then00:30:33
the question does not arise Where can go too far So00:30:36
she will hit you with her other00:30:41
end Therefore, I think that some00:30:43
elements00:30:45
of relative rationalism, even in00:30:47
the conditions of this00:30:50
cannibalistic completely system, they00:30:53
are preserved, these elements interfere with the00:30:56
announcement of some measures that cannot00:31:00
be implemented, yes, this is also a very00:31:02
important00:31:03
psychological barrier Yes, if Putin00:31:05
conditionally announces something that will not be00:31:09
implemented both because the bureaucratic system does not have the strength and00:31:12
resources and desire to00:31:14
do it and because citizens00:31:17
actively oppose it, then this is00:31:20
actually And already, as it were, Point Point00:31:25
of no return, he thus lost00:31:27
power because he is publicly00:31:29
demonstrated that his orders have00:31:32
not yet been carried out. This is partly the answer to your00:31:36
question about the ban on leaving the country and so00:31:39
on, everything could be signed and00:31:43
banned. But then the question arises as to00:31:46
how far this can be implemented in a day,00:31:50
but wait. We are already observing that00:31:53
some Putin’s instructions are not followed00:31:55
and in the future they simply say, look,00:31:57
these are bad boyars who did not listen to the00:31:59
good tsar, now we will quickly00:32:00
fix everything. I mean, for example, that00:32:03
mobilization, as it turned out, concerns not00:32:06
only those whom Vladimir Putin00:32:08
listed. But in principle, they suddenly take away00:32:09
all kinds of people categories with a00:32:12
variety of health problems, they don’t00:32:14
pay attention to reservations, and so on. It00:32:16
seems to me that the same thing can be done with00:32:18
borders. Vladimir Putin ordered the00:32:20
borders to be closed. Yes, in some00:32:22
places we have Corruption and all00:32:24
that, but we’ll figure it out now and00:32:26
release nothing they won’t,00:32:27
but here there are instructions and instructions00:32:31
that you gave regarding the fact that they are00:32:35
rowing, taking everyone away, and so on. This is not00:32:39
XS and this is, in general, a systemic action.00:32:43
Because there are different parts of the system,00:32:46
one at the very top, as it were, announces00:32:49
mobilization and, in principle, is interested00:32:52
to ensure that there are no big and public00:32:55
scandals about this,00:32:57
the other one is that the same military registration and enlistment office is responsible for00:33:01
the ranks, he must substitute a thousand00:33:04
people there, and if he appoints a thousand00:33:07
people, but not those who were00:33:10
originally announced, he will be reprimanded. And if he00:33:15
says a thousand, no, yes, 100 then this is a00:33:18
direct non-compliance and non-compliance with00:33:21
orders. And in this sense, a huge00:33:25
problem that you previously saw only00:33:27
in conditions, but today it is fully00:33:30
manifested in military conditions due00:33:34
to the fact that different parts of the system carrying out00:33:37
the commands that they receive can00:33:39
lead to00:33:42
Well, a counterproductive result for the00:33:45
system as a whole, the system as a whole. It’s bad00:33:48
that today bank employees, on00:33:51
whom the normal00:33:52
functioning of the banking system depends, are00:33:55
taken to war, of course this is bad, but00:33:58
every time to intervene and manually00:34:01
adjust the system is able to00:34:04
when it’s an isolated case, and when it’s a00:34:07
massive case it won’t she can’t do anything, so00:34:10
she herself seems to be undermining the roots of00:34:13
some more or less stable00:34:17
functioning in the conditions of both sanctions and00:34:20
war in Ukraine.00:34:24
I would also like to discuss the strong friendship between00:34:26
Russia and Belarus. They Vladimir Putin and00:34:29
Lukashenko agreed on the deployment of a00:34:31
joint regional grouping of00:34:33
troops Lukashenko himself said this at a00:34:36
meeting on security issues. We00:34:38
will now observe how Belarus00:34:40
will also be used as a00:34:42
military springboard, I don’t know, as an ally in a00:34:44
so-called special military operation,00:34:47
but I think, firstly, that00:34:50
Belarusians are already using it as a military springboard, why is00:34:53
it also in many ways is under very00:34:56
serious sanctions, another thing is that the00:34:59
Belarusian army00:35:02
publicly00:35:03
refused to participate in this war, and in00:35:08
this sense, as if Belarus is not00:35:10
an ally who, together with00:35:13
Russian troops, is participating in war00:35:16
crimes, they gave the Russian00:35:20
military the opportunity to00:35:22
attack Ukraine through the territory of Belarus,00:35:25
but they themselves did not joined this00:35:28
attack00:35:29
we will join I think not00:35:32
because Look at Lukashenko in general in00:35:36
relations between Putin and Lukashenko00:35:39
we need to wait for some concrete actions00:35:41
and not statements Yes, and it would be strange to00:35:44
expect that Lukashenko, who did not admit00:35:47
anything that was demanded of him, was asked to00:35:50
admit with on the Kremlin's side, they are old00:35:54
there, Abkhazia, South, all these, let alone00:35:57
referendums and the annexation of00:36:00
Ukrainians to Russia,00:36:01
that he is00:36:04
maneuvering and maneuvering time, as it were, on a00:36:08
fine line that by00:36:10
turning into a00:36:13
complete outcast for the West and not receiving00:36:17
Russian financial assistance,00:36:20
he still manages to somehow then00:36:22
it’s hard to expect that without making a00:36:26
rhetorical statement, what is it taking so long00:36:28
to get the cream out of him? He will make it a00:36:32
war, and especially now when it’s already00:36:36
absolutely obvious that this war00:36:38
is not developing at all according to the scenario according to00:36:41
which it was planned. Well, wait,00:36:44
is it possible to evade endlessly, wo00:36:47
n’t it appear in at some point the corner00:36:49
in which Lukashenko will find himself00:36:51
will have nowhere to go except to00:36:53
start acting on Putin’s instructions,00:36:56
well, this has been going on for 20 years and in00:37:01
this sense it can continue00:37:03
indefinitely. That is, if it has been possible so00:37:06
far, if at the cost of some promises00:37:10
such non-00:37:11
legally binding statements or00:37:15
demonstrations, Lukashenko received what he00:37:18
could and wanted to get earlier, why00:37:22
should we expect that now he is already00:37:24
in the corner completely? Moreover,00:37:27
Russia is obviously becoming00:37:31
weaker and the financial economy is00:37:34
much less attractive for00:37:36
Belarus than this There used to be free00:37:39
funds to pump them in00:37:42
supporting Lukashenko00:37:46
today Putin does not have financially.00:37:48
That is, I understand correctly that00:37:50
Putin still may not00:37:52
count on Belarus, but how much does he need it?00:37:55
Well, the question is: In what capacity does it have many00:37:59
allies as military assistance? Well,00:38:02
precisely that it is needed as an00:38:06
Albeit not such a full-fledged ally00:38:10
and accomplice who shares with you the guilt00:38:14
for all war crimes, but at least as00:38:18
such a neutrally00:38:20
friendly neighbor and territory00:38:23
that can be used, including00:38:26
for00:38:27
armed operations against Ukraine, it is00:38:30
needed for in this, of course,00:38:32
Lukashenko is playing and the more isolated00:38:36
Russia is, the more he needs Belarus as00:38:40
essentially the only one today who still00:38:43
retains at least something And at least00:38:46
somehow00:38:48
some public loyalty,00:38:53
how wonderful it turns out how cunning00:38:55
Lukashenko is, everyone around him will fight, he00:38:57
will come out of water dry and having received the00:39:00
maximum benefit for himself,00:39:02
but he is an00:39:04
excellent balancing act and a brilliant00:39:07
politician who00:39:08
manages to be in power longer00:39:11
than Putin, while not having and not00:39:15
previously having, unlike Putin, any00:39:17
resources that seemed to fall from the sky and00:39:22
ensure financial well-being,00:39:26
he is wonderful but again, he is00:39:29
maneuvering, but this was a belief that also has00:39:33
an end, and it is clear that, as it were, everything is the end of the00:39:36
Russian political regime, the position of00:39:39
Belarus, the position of Lukashenko, as if at the00:39:43
last moment he renounced all00:39:45
this, they too In general, they will be00:39:48
undermined by the endings, but for a couple of years now00:39:51
at least after00:39:54
his disastrous election, he is higher00:39:56
here, former White House00:39:59
national security adviser John Bolton00:40:01
called Russian President Vladimir00:40:03
Putin a legitimate military target for00:40:04
American forces if he00:40:06
decides to use nuclear weapons,00:40:08
how serious is this threat, how00:40:11
seriously can it be taken in00:40:13
We have already seen official comments from the Kremlin00:40:15
that Vladimir Putin is reliably protected,00:40:17
but all this is, of course, empty words.00:40:22
Well, I think that from the American side there have00:40:26
already been a number of threats, including the non-00:40:30
public00:40:34
Secretary of State Blinken and other top00:40:38
American leaders who warned00:40:41
the Kremlin of the consequences that may00:40:44
have the use of00:40:46
toxic nuclear weapons and this is a more00:40:51
serious policy than just the fact that00:40:55
Putin will be a legitimate target. Yes, Putin is00:40:58
afraid of everything and everyone, he is protected to the maximum,00:41:01
but it is clear that no protection for an00:41:05
elderly dictator, especially a00:41:08
weakening00:41:13
dictator, it cannot be absolute and00:41:17
can serve as a guarantee for him, etc. the thing is00:41:20
that the00:41:21
woman in such cases, the threat comes00:41:24
not so much from the outside, not so much from across the00:41:27
ocean, but from within from those00:41:31
still recent comrades who see00:41:34
that they are going to the bottom and do not want to keep00:41:37
company with their unlucky one. In this00:41:40
case, do00:41:41
we have such comrades in the pipeline00:41:44
who they don’t want to go to the bottom together with00:41:45
Vladimir Putin, they are ready to do something for this.00:41:48
Well, I think that no one00:41:51
wants a00:41:55
life preserver to go to the bottom or to plug a hole there.00:41:58
I think that00:42:01
all people in the Russian political00:42:05
class cannot help but think about this. Another thing is that They seem to be00:42:08
trying to isolate themselves as much as possible from all this,00:42:11
but the degree of their guilt, the degree of00:42:15
complicity and the punishment that they00:42:20
will suffer is one thing, but physical death00:42:25
and, as it were, the end of everything is a little00:42:30
different, yes. And if we can talk about the fact00:42:33
that such threats are direct to the00:42:36
consolidated actions on the part of the00:42:39
elite in terms of carrying out00:42:42
coups d'etat, changing power,00:42:44
and so on. But today they are somehow not00:42:47
visible, including because the00:42:51
regime is structured in such a way that today there are these00:42:54
mechanisms of consolidated action and00:42:57
even a way to vote for some00:43:00
interests of the political class No, they are00:43:04
atomized, they are intimidated They are each00:43:07
now trying to somehow00:43:10
maneuver individually, but the situation00:43:13
is changing and we have seen this in the example of00:43:18
other countries, we will see this in the example of00:43:21
Russia, that is, still wait for a palace00:43:24
coup00:43:25
Well, a palace coup I think today it00:43:28
is possible to wait not in terms of the fact that it will suddenly00:43:31
happen, as if there is almost no place today,00:43:37
but simply to understand that00:43:42
loyalty is all largely a function00:43:47
of how the political00:43:51
situation develops and this can all change and00:43:54
can change very quickly; it’s one thing00:43:57
to be loyal to the00:43:58
successful leader from whom you are entirely00:44:02
dependent00:44:04
and another thing is to be loyal00:44:10
and another piece of news that personally00:44:12
touched me Navalny’s associates announced the00:44:15
restart of his headquarters, they seemed to say00:44:18
that00:44:19
security would be ensured, anonymity00:44:21
and all that. But we understand that this is a00:44:23
real gift to the Russian special services,00:44:25
now it will be very easy for these00:44:27
supporters If really, everything00:44:29
will restart, catch them, accuse them of00:44:32
extremism in conspiracies, and so on.00:44:34
Why are Navalny’s associates organizing this? It00:44:39
seems to me that there is00:44:42
a dilemma. Yes, it is connected with what to do.00:44:46
In such a00:44:49
catastrophic developing situation, one can00:44:51
really expect that the spiders in the00:44:56
jar will fight and00:44:58
one main thing will be replaced by another00:45:03
the main one who is unlikely to be00:45:05
qualitatively and fundamentally different00:45:08
from the current one in this bank is one thing, but to provide00:45:13
some kind of atmosphere that does not necessarily00:45:16
have specific political00:45:20
results in the form of action, but simply an00:45:23
atmosphere that shows00:45:26
that there is a country, there is Russia, in addition to00:45:31
Putin, there are Russian citizens who00:45:34
not only categorically disagree with00:45:37
the fact that on their behalf he does not make the cream,00:45:41
Russian troops do it, but who are00:45:43
ready to somehow00:45:47
oppose themselves to this and somehow00:45:51
consolidate this is very important. I don’t00:45:54
see any00:45:56
such active possible action in00:46:00
this today plan, but also posing the question as00:46:04
it is posed and discussing it and00:46:08
discussing what will happen next, nothing will00:46:11
do for us, but the new president who00:46:14
will replace the old one. And what can we00:46:17
oppose to all this00:46:19
madness and movement to a complete dead end?00:46:23
This is very important,00:46:24
just an important point, by the way, yes I will remind you00:46:28
that Navalny’s headquarters are here so that00:46:30
Navalny is included in the list of00:46:32
extremist organizations, before that he is00:46:34
recognized as a foreign agent in the opinion of the00:46:36
Russian authorities, so the problem is00:46:38
that of course there is nothing bad for00:46:40
people who are oppositionally inclined00:46:43
to discuss some further actions,00:46:44
make plans, and so on, but here is an00:46:47
awkward situation, those who announce the00:46:51
reorganization of Navalny’s headquarters00:46:52
are mainly abroad. And00:46:55
if I understand the message correctly, I00:46:56
could of course be wrong, they are suggesting that those00:46:58
who are now in Russia00:47:00
organize themselves into new00:47:02
Navalny headquarters and thus actually00:47:03
expose them to attack here in Russia, this is00:47:06
the maximum unsafe00:47:08
I think that firstly, what is important is that00:47:11
Navalny was the first to accept this challenge and00:47:14
is not abroad at all, and00:47:18
secondly, what else can we expect00:47:22
if this kind of public statement00:47:26
from within the country is already00:47:30
criminally punishable, and that is, there is another00:47:34
option and then00:47:36
the question arises, it seems to me that00:47:39
Navalny’s structures have many times00:47:42
demonstrated their attention to the00:47:47
safety of00:47:49
their00:47:51
supporters. Yes, then the question arises:00:47:54
What form can all this00:47:56
take? That is, today there00:47:59
can be no other option. Yes,00:48:01
today, from within the country, to publicly00:48:03
speak out with the idea of restoring the00:48:06
activities of these states, no one can be00:48:09
without being arrested the next day or00:48:11
even on the same day and00:48:14
going to prison; this all must be done00:48:16
from somewhere from a relatively safe00:48:19
place, and how? Let’s see,00:48:22
but well, what can these people do here? the00:48:25
very headquarters, but not by choice, they will go00:48:27
in the end.00:48:28
We see that00:48:31
civil resistance to what the00:48:34
authorities are doing to what is happening is00:48:38
developing in a number of directions,00:48:41
this includes mutual assistance, information00:48:45
regarding mobilization and evasion from00:48:49
it, this and some kind of attacks and00:48:52
arson military registration and enlistment offices is the maximum00:48:55
demonstration of disagreement, and this00:48:58
seems to me very important, not just to defeat with00:49:02
bare hands a heavily00:49:04
armed government, which even00:49:07
today, experiencing a shortage of soldiers at00:49:11
the front, nevertheless maintains a huge00:49:14
police force in order to00:49:16
suppress any active resistance,00:49:20
this would be00:49:22
impossible but this does not mean that00:49:25
to declare this and00:49:28
come up with, as was always the case before, in the00:49:31
actions of Navalny’s structures, some00:49:34
moves that00:49:35
the authorities did not foresee and that are not00:49:38
related to going with bare hands to00:49:42
storm with cream that are related to00:49:45
some forms of resistance that are still00:49:48
possible still allowed always in00:49:52
this structure of Navalny they were00:49:54
very creative and enterprising, I’m sure00:49:57
that they came up with something today00:50:01
I’m just a little bit before we00:50:04
end the broadcast, the time is already coming to an00:50:05
end Unfortunately, I’ll remind you for those who00:50:07
listen to us I think that this is00:50:09
just important outside of any assessment of what00:50:12
Navalny’s supporters are proposing00:50:13
I remind you that cooperation with the headquarters00:50:16
can be regarded by the Russian authorities00:50:18
as participation in an extremist organization00:50:20
And this is a rather significant criminal00:50:23
sentence. I just want our viewers and00:50:26
listeners to be careful, it’s time to00:50:28
finish. Unfortunately, this was00:50:30
Nikolai Petrov’s dissenting opinion somewhat00:50:32
cut down Unfortunately, so at the beginning00:50:34
you can listen to my colleague Nikita00:50:36
Vasilenko If suddenly you are watching us not00:50:39
first but Nikolai Vladimirovich Thank you00:50:40
very much for participating in the broadcast Thank you Yes I00:50:44
remind you that you need to subscribe to the00:50:46
Youtube channel live nail on the Telegram00:50:48
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information service of Moscow Moscow, which00:51:01
now works, of course, not in the same00:51:04
mode, but in any case at the same00:51:06
level of quality of their00:51:08
telegrams. the Echo channel is just a place where00:51:11
all sorts of important interesting information is posted,00:51:14
be sure to go to the Echo website, it’s really00:51:17
cool that different opinions are collected from different00:51:19
points of view of broadcast transcripts. And of00:51:21
course, my love is the Echo application00:51:23
where you can calmly listen to live broadcasts of00:51:27
other YouTube channels of former00:51:30
Echo journalists Moscow and do it not on00:51:33
YouTube where it is extremely inconvenient,00:51:34
you minimize everything, turn it off, but just00:51:37
turn it on online in the background And00:51:38
listen Thank you very much All the bestDescription:
Сегодня в прямом эфире своё Особое мнение выскажет политолог Николай Петров*. Ведущая: Лиза Аникина. 00:00 - Начало эфира 00:53 - Главные новости дня от Никиты Василенко 08:37- Почему именно сейчас начались усиленные ракетные обстрелы? 10:37 - Удар по Крымскому мосту — это диверсия? 11:55 - О ситуации в вооружённых силах РФ 13:38 - Взрыв Крымского моста понесёт последствия? 15:32 - Назначение Суровикина 18:46 - Кадыров и Пригожин — рупоры Кремля или самостоятельные единицы? 22:04 - Что может сегодня остановить Путина? 23:40 - «Кремль останавливают ресурсы» 26:19 - Российский народ терпелив и не проявляет признаки недовольства ? 27:30 - Почему не меняется статус спецоперации ? 34:40 - Лукашенко и Путин договорились о развертывании совместной региональной группировки войск 44:15 - Зачем организуют штабы Навального**? * - признан российскими властями иностранным агентом. ** - Организация "Штабы Навального" признана в России экстремистской. Её деятельность запрещена. Мобильное приложение "Эха": любимые программы в формате радиоприёмника. Простой интерфейс. Работа в фоновом режиме. Расписание эфиров. Скачать: в AppStore: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/%D1%8D%D1%85%D0%BE-online/id1639907671 в PlayMarket: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=online.echofm.app Поддержать Живой Гвоздь: https://pay.cloudtips.ru/p/7edd7c0e Подписывайтесь на телеграм-канал Лизы Аникиной: https://t.me/echo_episod 🔔 Последние новости и анонсы программ с YouTube-канала «Живой гвоздь», а также контент от наших постоянных гостей и экспертов на официальном телеграм-канале: https://t.me/livegvozd Подписаться на Youtube-канал Дилетант: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuIE7-5QzeAR6EdZXwDRwuQ?sub_confirmation=1 📌 Живой гвоздь в аудиоформате: SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-524451485 Яндекс.Музыка: https://music.yandex.ru/album/22141653?dir=desc Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%B3%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B4%D1%8C/id1616175210 Google Подкасты: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5zb3VuZGNsb3VkLmNvbS91c2Vycy9zb3VuZGNsb3VkOnVzZXJzOjEwOTk2NzA5MDUvc291bmRzLnJzcw?sa=X&ved=0CAIQ4aUDahcKEwigxO3Eweb2AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQEQ Магазин "Дилетант": https://diletant.shop/
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