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Download "John Mearsheimer: Israel lobby’s influence on US policy as powerful as ever | UpFront"

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Table of contents
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Table of contents

0:00
Introduction
2:00
Bidens support for Israel
5:00
Israels strategic importance
8:00
Why the US supports Israel
11:00
Smashmouth politics
15:00
Fighting without gloves
18:00
Russian military strength
21:00
US sanctions
Video tags
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Video tags

Benjamin Netanyahu
China
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
Dmitry Medvedev
Gaza
Hamas
Iran
Israel
Joe Biden
Kiev
Marc Lamont Hill
Mearsheimer
NATO
National Rifle Association
Palestine
Russia
US foreign policy
Ukraine
United States
Vladimir Putin
Zelenskyy
demography
financial support
genocide
lobby
military aid
proxy war
unipolarity
upfront
war
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Subtitles

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00:00:00
as the United States is under Fire for
00:00:02
its continued support of Israel's brutal
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war on Gaza and while it becomes further
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in mesed in a costly war in Ukraine many
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are asking how is this affecting
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Washington's Global standing is the US
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overstretched and could this signal the
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end of us unipolarity we'll ask renowned
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political scientist John mimer in an
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upfront
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special John Mir shamer thank you so
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much for joining us on UPF front my
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pleasure to be here uh it's been nearly
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20 years since you co-authored your
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seminal piece uh titled the Israel Lobby
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uh dealing with the Lobby's undue
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influence on United States foreign
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policy uh have there been any major
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policy shifts or any other changes or
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developments since you wrote the
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piece well I think there two things have
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changed one is I think that we helped to
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open up the discourse about the lobby
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uh before we wrote the article and then
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the book uh not many people talked about
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the lobby explicitly and the Lobby's
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influence on US foreign policy and I
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think in terms of the
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discourse uh we had a significant
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influence uh in terms of actual policy I
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think we've had little influence at all
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uh I think that the lobby remains as
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powerful as ever uh and American foreign
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policy
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uh towards Israel and towards the
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greater Middle East remains greatly
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influenced by uh the lobby I mean one
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could argue you're you're you're being
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too hard on yourself that you're selling
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yourself a little bit short to the
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extent that there is at least resistance
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now and that resistance does matter I
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mean there's a campaign against the
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lobby group APAC the American Israel
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public affairs uh committee uh and and
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how they influence us politics
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specifically the target of Progressive
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Democrats according to one poll uh 62%
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of respondents who voted for President
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Biden in 2020 agree that quote the US
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should stop weapons shipments to Israel
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until Israel discontinues its attacks on
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the people of Gaza now President Biden
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certainly continues to provide military
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aid and financial support to Israel
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there's no doubt about that um but
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there's at least the perception of a
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risk that Biden is taken now that
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wouldn't have been there 20 years ago is
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that safe to
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say well I think there's no question
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that uh attitudes towards Israel and
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towards Israel's policies uh regarding
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the Palestinians has shifted in the body
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politic especially among young people
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and especially among Democrats and
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there's no question that causes problems
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for uh President Biden but the fact is
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that the lobby Still Remains uh
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exceedingly successful at influencing uh
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policy at the elite level uh the lobb's
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influence in Congress and the Lobby's
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influence on the white house uh remains
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uh as powerful as ever uh so what you
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have here is something of a disjuncture
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between public opinion on one hand and
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the Lobby's ability to influence policy
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on the other hand uh and how that plays
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out over time remains to be seen it
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could be the case that Biden is defeated
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in the fall in large part because he has
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supported Israel uh down the line uh up
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to now and that he continues to support
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Israel down the line and that comes back
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to bite him uh that may be the case and
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if that does happen then attitudes uh
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towards Israel and towards the lobby and
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towards the Israeli American
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relationship I think will change even
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more and maybe policy will change but
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that has not happened so far fair enough
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uh a dissenting memo organized by the US
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state department uh staffers which was
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leaked uh back in November early
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November uh warned that the US's failure
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to criticize Israeli war crimes quote
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contributes to Regional public
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perceptions that the United States is a
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biased and dishonest actor which at best
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does not advance and at worst harms us
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interests worldwide is the US's
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continued support for Israel affecting
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uh it's Global
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standing there's no question about it
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the United States is effectively
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complicit in the genocide that's widely
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regarded uh our ability uh you know to
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influence people around the world has
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diminished significantly as a result of
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this uh all of this makes a joke out of
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the concept of a rules-based order which
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we preach about all the time this is a
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disaster for the United States but I
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would point out to you that despite the
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fact it's a disaster the United States
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continues to support Israel down the
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line now the rejoiner to that at least
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the most reasonable rejoiner to that
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would be that this is absolutely a
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matter of National Security that Israel
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is not just the recipient of us LR J for
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philanthropic reasons or humanitarian
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reasons but that there's a strategic
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interest in the Middle East that goes
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beyond the money but it's actually
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directly tied to us uh National Security
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interest is supporting Israel vital to
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maintaining US National Security I I
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think your comments have it dead wrong
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Israel is a strategic albatross around
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their neck it's a liability uh we gain
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hardly any benefits from our
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relationship with uh Israel any
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strategic benefits and uh their
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significant liabilities as we're seeing
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now furthermore there's a powerful moral
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or ethical Dimension to this and the the
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idea that being joined at the hip with
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Israel is in our moral or ethical
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interest is not a serious argument as I
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said to you before the United States is
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complicit in a genocide uh this is
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certainly not in our interest so uh the
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idea that you know we're supporting
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Israel
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unconditionally uh because it's an our
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strategic and moral interest is not a
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serious argument in my opinion yeah the
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the moral side was more saying if we
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cast aside the more argument
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against supporting Israel uh is there
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still a strategic interest that trumps
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that and and some people would argue
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whether it's whether it's uh being wary
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of Iran whether it's proxy wars that
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there might be some vital military
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reason for being there and being so
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staunchly tied to Israel but you say
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there's no there's no credible argument
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there no I don't buy that argument for
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one second and uh Stephen I lay out the
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case against that argument in both the
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article and in the book and by the way
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with regard to Iran I believe we would
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have much better relations with Iran
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today were it not for the lobby uh in
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our chapter on uh Iran in in the lobby
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book we make it quite clear that Iran
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tried to improve relations with the
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United States on a number of occasions
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in the 80s and the 90s and the lobby
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moved in and uh killed our efforts to
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accommodate uh the Iranians in any way
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and furthermore if you look at the jcpoa
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which is the uh nuclear agreement
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between basically the United States and
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Iran that I think effectively shut down
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the Iranian nuclear program in the short
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term uh it was Israel and the lobby that
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put enormous pressure on the United
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States uh to put an end to that
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agreement which I don't think was in our
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interest so help me understand why we
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end up in this place if there's no
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legitimate moral argument here uh to
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your point and if there is no legitimate
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strategic interest and it's certainly a
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financial burden we're talking three or
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four billion dollars a year and we're
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talking about in post October 7th an
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attempt to get even more tens of
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billions of dollars uh to Israel it's
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certainly a financial burden why does
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the United States continue to double
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down in this way in the 60s we'd say
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it's Hawk missile sales perhaps you know
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we might say that it's a it's it's an
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attempt to leverage uh a geopolitical
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standing in order to access oil more but
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now in 2024 what what good reason does
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the United States have to do this
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they're not doing it blindly there there
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must be a reason what is
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it well let me just point out that the
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United States just doesn't give Israel
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lots of weapons and lots of money uh and
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support it diplomatically it does it
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unconditionally there is no relationship
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between any two countries in world
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history that looks like this
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relationship the United States again
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supports Israel no matter what it does
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uh this is truly remarkable we don't
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treat Israel like a normal country and
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help it because it's to our benefit
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strategically that's the argument you're
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basically making this is a strategic
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asset for the United States it's a
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normal country and we take advantage of
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it that's not what's going on here so
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help me get to the why what is the
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organizing principle behind this special
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relationship then I it's a fascinating
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argument you're making but why then why
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is the us doing it because of the lobby
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the United States has a political system
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that is set up in ways that allow
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interest groups to have great influence
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just think of the National Rifle
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Association uh when you look at polls
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and terms of how Americans think about
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gun control what you see is that there
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are lots of Americans who are interested
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in some serious gun control but it's
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almost impossible to get any meaningful
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gun control because of the National
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Rifle Association the National Rifle
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Association is an interest group that
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wields enormous power when it comes to
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legislation involving gun control well
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the Israel Lobby is one of the most
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powerful lobbies if not the most
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powerful Lobby in the United States and
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the lobby goes to enormous lengths to
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make sure that American foreign policy
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supports Israel unconditionally and it
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is wildly successful
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uh truly impressive how good the lobby
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is at getting uh US foreign policy
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makers uh to support Israel hookline and
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sinker do you have any optimism that
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it's you know is the invincibility of
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APAC that aura of invincibility breaking
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down uh I think that's a little too
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strong I think it's eroding somewhat
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what the future looks like for sure is
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hard to say let me make two points there
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first of all the lobby now has to
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operate out in the open uh and it has to
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engage in what I call Smashmouth
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politics uh before we wrote the article
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in the book The Lobby could operate uh
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behind closed doors and for any interest
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group the ideal situation is to operate
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uh behind closed doors and not out in
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the open but when you're out in the open
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like the lobby is now and you're engaged
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in Smashmouth
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politics uh it's going to cause you all
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sorts of problems that's Point number
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one point number two that Israel's
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Behavior has gotten more outrageous over
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time and a good manifestation of this
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point is what's happening in Gaza today
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and this situation is not going to get
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any better with the passage of time it's
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widely recognized that Israel is an
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apartheid state and furthermore it is
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engaging in a genocidal campaign at this
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point in time all of that tells you that
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the lobby has really got a difficult job
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confronting it it has to work overtime
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these days to defend Israel and it will
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have to work harder and harder with the
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passage of time because more and more
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people are aware of what's going on in
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the Middle East they see what Israel is
00:12:12
doing but I would never underestimate
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the ability of the lobby uh to adjust to
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the circumstances and uh and Prevail in
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the long run that may not happen but you
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don't want to underestimate the lobby
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that's my basic Point understood let's
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move on to Ukraine a bit uh and October
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of last year President Biden had uh
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asked Congress to authorize $61 billion
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in Ukrainian assistance uh in addition
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to another 14 billion for Israel uh
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which for now Still Remains stalled in
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the US House of Representatives uh the
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US Department of Defense and early
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February stated that without us funding
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uh Ukraine's defense will likely
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collapse uh given that the funding is
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now stalled what do you believe the
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impact will be uh for Ukraine and for us
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policy
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well I believed that Ukraine was going
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to lose this war to Russia whether they
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got that 60 plus billion dollars or not
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the fact is that the ukrainians need
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Weaponry uh and furthermore they need
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Manpower because they're badly
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outnumbered in terms of troop levels
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well we can't do anything to help them
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with troop levels and in terms of
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Weaponry we don't have the Weaponry to
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give them when you listen to people talk
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about this 60 plus billion you would
00:13:30
think that this is going to allow us as
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soon as this Aid is provided to take all
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these weapons off the shelf and ship
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them to Ukraine and that's going to go a
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long way towards redressing the
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imbalance and weaponry over there but
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that's not true we can't we can't give
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them the weapons they need in large
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enough numbers because we don't have
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those weapons and that we includes the
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Europeans as well as the United States
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so we can give them dollar bills or
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Euros but that's not going to do them
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much good so we can't number one redress
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the Weaponry imbalance and number two we
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cannot redress the Manpower imbalance
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all of that so is this money largely
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ineffective to the point that it it's a
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legitimate argument for not sending any
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no it's worse than that what it does is
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it encourages the ukrainians to continue
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fighting which means they'll lose more
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territory and more ukrainians will die
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when if we cut off the aid and let
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Ukraine go its own way and become a
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neutral country Ukraine could cut a deal
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now and get a better deal today than it
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will get tomorrow if we give it the aid
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to continue fighting that feels a little
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bit like I won't call it appeasement but
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to to effectively yield uh significant
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portions of your land because you can't
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win uh when there's an entire Global
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community that could offer support feels
00:14:53
like a tough decision to make if you get
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into a fight with Muhammad Ali and you
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go two rounds with him and it's quite
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clear that he has the ability to kill
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you what are you going to do quit after
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two rounds or continue to fight and
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allow him to kill you well if he if I'm
00:15:08
wearing gloves and he's not I've been
00:15:09
yelling to somebody hey is there a ref
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there that can put some gloves on the
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guy I feel like Russia's fighting
00:15:14
without gloves and no everyone's just
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watching well in the International
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System there is no higher authority that
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can rescue you when you get into trouble
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and the ukrainians are in big trouble
00:15:27
and there's no referee no no higher
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authority no whatever up there that can
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rescue them and my point to you is that
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what the ukrainians should do now is
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they should uh cut all security ties cut
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all security ties with the West right
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and declare neutrality and work with the
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Russians to make it clear that they are
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a neutral State and have no interest in
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joining NATO and then the United States
00:15:53
should cut off all Aid to Ukraine and
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the ukrainians should rely on economic
00:16:00
aid from Europe in its place uh former
00:16:03
Russian president Dimitri medv uh who's
00:16:06
now Deputy uh chairman of Russia
00:16:08
Security Council was recently asked at
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what point Russia should stop its
00:16:12
Invasion and he stated it probably
00:16:15
should be ke if not now then after some
00:16:18
time maybe in some other phase of the
00:16:20
development of this conflict uh
00:16:22
President Putin himself also stated that
00:16:24
Russian troops would push further into
00:16:26
Ukraine after Russia's success in taking
00:16:27
over the town of abiva uh do you think
00:16:31
uh Putin's goal is to take over all of
00:16:33
Ukraine uh and is Russia even capable of
00:16:36
doing
00:16:37
this I I think that despite the
00:16:40
conventional wisdom in the west he is
00:16:42
not determined uh and never has been
00:16:44
determined to conquer all of Ukraine uh
00:16:48
and indeed he would be foolish to do
00:16:49
that and furthermore despite the
00:16:51
conventional wisdom in the west there
00:16:54
has never been any evidence that he's
00:16:56
interested in conquering other countries
00:16:59
in Eastern Europe as well the idea that
00:17:01
he's trying to recreate the Russian
00:17:03
Empire or create a greater Russia uh is
00:17:06
not a serious argument but but much of
00:17:09
the argument isn't that he's trying to
00:17:10
take over the rest of Europe but maybe
00:17:13
just the rest of
00:17:14
Ukraine no I don't believe that there's
00:17:16
no evidence to support that he'd be a
00:17:18
fool to try to conquer all of Ukraine
00:17:21
because the Western half of the country
00:17:23
is filled with ethnic ukrainians who
00:17:26
would resist Russian occupation might
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he'd have a serious Insurgency on his
00:17:32
hands and that's the last thing he needs
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and as I said to you before they would
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be foolish in the extreme to try to do
00:17:38
that let's move on because there's
00:17:39
there's another thing I want to ask you
00:17:41
about uh in December uh of uh 2023 us
00:17:45
defense secretary Lloyd Austin stated
00:17:47
Russia's military is badly weakened uh
00:17:51
and last year the head of the defense
00:17:53
intelligence agency said that it would
00:17:54
take somewhere between 5 and 10 years
00:17:56
for Russia to rebuild the capabilities
00:17:58
of it Armed Forces some argue that
00:18:00
Ukrainian resistance with Western
00:18:03
support was in fact important to prevent
00:18:05
further aggression from Russia what do
00:18:07
you make of that I think it's just dead
00:18:10
wrong I think the Russian military today
00:18:12
is much more formidable that it w than
00:18:15
it was when the war first started armies
00:18:18
at the start of a war rarely look like
00:18:20
armies Midway through a war or at the
00:18:22
end of a war and by almost all accounts
00:18:26
in the Ukrainian media this is in the UK
00:18:28
Ukrainian media media the Russian army
00:18:31
has gotten much better with the passage
00:18:33
of time they've mobilized lots of troops
00:18:36
they've trained them up the equipment is
00:18:38
much better and most importantly the
00:18:40
tactics and strategy are smarter which
00:18:42
is what you would expect in any army
00:18:45
that fights a protracted War it gets
00:18:47
better in most cases with the pass with
00:18:50
the passage of time I I think the
00:18:51
concern was the wiping out of ground
00:18:53
troops and that to replenish those
00:18:54
troops it would take 5 to 10 years but I
00:18:56
hear what you're saying loud and clear
00:18:57
which is that those numbers are inflated
00:18:59
and that and that they're they've
00:19:00
replenished troops much more quickly and
00:19:01
efficiently than that I think that's
00:19:04
exactly right the numbers of Russian
00:19:06
casualties are inflated and furthermore
00:19:09
Putin has mobilized a huge number of
00:19:11
troops they've trained them up and they
00:19:14
now have a quite effective military fair
00:19:17
enough uh you recently stated that the
00:19:19
US is in trouble in regards to the
00:19:21
Middle East and Ukraine on Ukraine you
00:19:24
said uh quote we were committed to
00:19:26
beating the Russians in Ukraine we were
00:19:28
were committed to Wrecking the Russian
00:19:30
economy and knocking the Russians out of
00:19:32
the ranks of the great Powers we failed
00:19:36
this is a devastating defeat for the
00:19:38
West you said um from your standpoint is
00:19:40
this the end of American
00:19:43
unipolarity no unipolarity in my opinion
00:19:45
ended in
00:19:47
2017 with the rise of China and the fact
00:19:50
that uh Putin brought the uh Russians
00:19:53
back from the dead uh between the period
00:19:56
of 2000 when he took over and
00:19:59
2017 the unipolar moment lasted from
00:20:02
roughly December 1991 when the Soviet
00:20:05
Union collapsed until about
00:20:08
2017 we were the only great power on the
00:20:11
planet and it was the ideal strategic
00:20:14
situation to be in but the world that we
00:20:16
live in today is not unipolar it's
00:20:18
multipolar there's China there's Russia
00:20:21
and there's the United States and uh let
00:20:24
let me push back on that just a little
00:20:25
bit because the US Still Remains the
00:20:27
largest economy
00:20:29
uh in the world according to GDP and GDP
00:20:31
per capita uh in 2023 and in 2024 the US
00:20:34
was still ranked as the most powerful
00:20:36
military in the world with the world's
00:20:38
largest defense budget uh in excess of I
00:20:40
believe $750 billion there we have
00:20:43
military bases in well over 70 countries
00:20:45
right now uh can other countries really
00:20:48
threaten the unipolar strength of the
00:20:49
United
00:20:50
States well I would point out to you
00:20:53
that you're absolutely correct that we
00:20:55
are the most powerful State on the
00:20:57
planet but
00:21:58
to break free of us Orthodoxy they faced
00:22:01
the Wrath of the US government some
00:22:03
countries today are still enduring a
00:22:06
ferocious array of sanctions others in
00:22:07
the past were victims of regime change
00:22:09
operations uh that were supported by the
00:22:12
United States or other Western uh
00:22:13
governments does the US still have the
00:22:15
same ability to threaten Nations that go
00:22:17
against them or have things
00:22:19
changed well I think things have changed
00:22:22
somewhat uh I I think that uh other
00:22:25
countries uh like Iran for example examp
00:22:28
Le and North Korea uh which uh were in a
00:22:33
much lonlier position during the
00:22:36
unipolar moment uh can now cozy up to
00:22:39
the Chinese and the Russians who are
00:22:41
willing to Cozy up to them and this just
00:22:44
goes to tell you that weaker countries
00:22:47
in the system uh can find allies who
00:22:50
will help to protect them uh from the
00:22:53
United States and it's pensant for
00:22:55
regime change so before you go let me
00:22:57
ask you one more question so if I accept
00:22:59
your argument that us unipolarity is
00:23:02
over uh what comes next are we going to
00:23:05
see a genuinely
00:23:06
multipolar kind of political environment
00:23:09
here or are we going to see a situation
00:23:11
where China eventually takes the US's
00:23:14
place and imposes a new kind of
00:23:16
imperialism we're in a genuinely
00:23:19
multipolar system and there's no
00:23:21
evidence that it's going to end anytime
00:23:23
soon one can make an argument that for
00:23:27
demographic reasons moving forward we
00:23:30
will eventually go back to a unipolar
00:23:32
world and the reason I say that is it's
00:23:35
quite clear that the Chinese and the
00:23:37
Russians but especially the Chinese have
00:23:39
Wicked demographic problems uh and that
00:23:43
their populations are going to shrink in
00:23:45
significant ways over time the United
00:23:48
States has a bit of a demographic
00:23:50
problem itself but we have one great
00:23:52
advantage that they don't have and that
00:23:54
is that we're an immigrant culture so we
00:23:56
can import all sorts of people to
00:23:58
redress the demographic problems that we
00:24:01
have and I think an argument could be
00:24:04
made that you know 50 years from now the
00:24:06
United States may be back to unipolarity
00:24:10
in large part because of demographic
00:24:13
reasons because you understand the two
00:24:14
principal building blocks of military
00:24:17
power are wealth and demography you have
00:24:20
to be rich and you have to have lots of
00:24:22
people and China and Russia are in a
00:24:24
very precarious situation over the long
00:24:27
term because they have declining
00:24:29
populations Johnn M I want to thank you
00:24:31
for your time thank you so much for
00:24:32
joining us on a front with your insights
00:24:34
this is my pleasure thanks for having me
00:24:36
on the show I enjoyed it thank you all
00:24:39
right everyone that is our show up front
00:24:40
we'll be back next
00:24:43
[Music]
00:24:57
week

Description:

Marc Lamont Hill talks to scholar John Mearsheimer about US foreign policy and its support for Israel and Ukraine. Israel’s war on Gaza has killed more than 32,000 and caused a widespread humanitarian disaster. As Israel continues its attacks on Gaza and the civilian death toll keeps rising, the US is facing a growing backlash for its military and financial support to Israel. This week the US abstained from a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution vote, allowing the measure to pass. But the US said the abstention did not signal a change in policy or support towards its ally. On another front, Russia’s war on Ukraine continues unabated, with casualties mounting. While the US has pledged billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine, the legislation has stalled in Congress. How are the current conflicts and diplomatic tensions affecting Washington’s global standing? And could this signal the end of US unipolarity? This week on an UpFront special, Marc Lamont Hill speaks to renowned political scientist John Mearsheimer about how US foreign policy could affect the outcomes of these wars.

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