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turing

00:00:02

you call this framework offensive

00:00:05

realism C can you just give a overview

00:00:07

of the history of the realism versus

00:00:11

liberalism debate as World Views well I

00:00:15

think for many centuries now the big

00:00:20

divide uh within the world of

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international relations

00:00:25

theory is between realism and liberalism

00:00:30

these are Tim honored bodies of theory

00:00:34

and before I tell you what I think the

00:00:36

differences are between those two bodies

00:00:38

of theory it is important to emphasize

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that there are differences among

00:00:43

realists and differences among

00:00:47

liberals um and so when you talk about

00:00:51

me as an offensive realist you should

00:00:53

understand that there are also defensive

00:00:55

realists out there and there are uh a

00:00:58

panoply of liberal theor iies as well

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but uh basically realists believe that

00:01:05

power matters that states compete for

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power and that war is an instrument of

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statecraft and uh uh liberals on the

00:01:16

other hand have what I would say is a

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more idealistic view of the world uh

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this is not to say that they're naive or

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foolish but they believe there are ass

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ects of international

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politics uh that lead to a less

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competitive and more peaceful world than

00:01:39

most realists see uh and I'll lay out

00:01:44

for you very quickly what are the three

00:01:47

major liberal theories today that I

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think will give you a sense of the more

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optimistic perspective that is inherent

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in the liberal

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Enterprise uh the first and most

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important of the liberal theories is

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democratic peace Theory and this is a

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theory that says democracies do not

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fight against other

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democracies so the more the world is

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populated with democracies the less

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likely it is that we will have

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wars uh and this basic argument is

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inherent in Francis fukiyama is the end

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of History he argues that democracy

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triumphed first over fascism in the 20th

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century it then triumphed over communism

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and that means that in the future we're

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have more and more liberal democracies

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on the planet and if you have more and

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more liberal democracies and those

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democracies don't fight each other then

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you have a more peaceful world that was

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his argument it's a very liberal

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argument a realist like me would say

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that it doesn't matter whether a state

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is a democracy or not all states behave

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the same way because the structure of

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the system getting back to our earlier

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discussion about International Anarchy

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the structure of the system leaves those

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States no choice whether they're

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democracies or autocracies and again the

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liberal view this first liberal theory

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is that democracies don't fight other

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democracies and therefore the more

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democracies you have the more peaceful

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the world can I just uh sort of try to

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unpack that a little bit so on the

00:03:36

Democratic peace Theory I guess would

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say that in democracies leaders are

00:03:41

elected and the underlying assumption is

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most people want peace and so they will

00:03:47

elect peacemakers so the more you

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democracies you have the more likely you

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have peace and then the realist

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perspective what says that it doesn't

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matter if the majority of people want

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peace the

00:04:00

structure of international politics is

00:04:03

such that superpowers want to become

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more Super and powerful and they do that

00:04:09

through War you can't make that argument

00:04:12

that you're making about democracies

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because if you're saying that

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democracies are inclined toward peace

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and that the electorate picks leaders

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who are inclined towards peace then you

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have to show that democracies are in

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General more peaceful than

00:04:32

non-democracies and you can't support

00:04:35

that argument you can find lots of

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evidence to support the argument that

00:04:40

democracies don't fight other

00:04:43

democracies so the argument I believe

00:04:46

that you have to make if you're going to

00:04:48

support Democratic peace Theory the main

00:04:50

argument you have to make

00:04:53

is that liberal

00:04:56

democracies have a healthy respect for

00:04:59

each other and they can assess each

00:05:03

other's intentions if you're a liberal

00:05:05

democracy and I'm a liberal democracy we

00:05:08

know we have value systems that argue

00:05:12

against aggression and argue for

00:05:16

peaceful resolution of Crisis and

00:05:18

therefore given these Norms we can trust

00:05:22

each other we can know each other's

00:05:24

intentions remember for realists like me

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uncertainty about intentions really

00:05:29

helps Drive the train but if you're

00:05:32

talking about two

00:05:33

democracies right the argument there is

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that they know each other's intentions

00:05:38

and for you sure maybe democracies

00:05:41

reduce uncertainty a little bit but not

00:05:43

enough to stop the train I think that's

00:05:46

right yeah that's that's right so that's

00:05:48

Democratic peace theory yes the second

00:05:50

theory is economic interdependence

00:05:52

Theory and that's the argument that in a

00:05:55

globalized world like the one that we

00:05:57

live in and have lived in for long a

00:05:59

long time there's a great deal of

00:06:01

economic interdependence and if you and

00:06:03

I are two

00:06:04

countries uh or if you and me are two

00:06:06

countries and we're economically

00:06:09

interdependent and we're both getting

00:06:11

prosperous as a result of this economic

00:06:14

intercourse the last thing that we're

00:06:16

going to do is start a war either one of

00:06:18

us because who would kill the goose that

00:06:20

lays the golden eggs it's that kind of

00:06:22

argument so there you have an argument

00:06:25

that economic interdependence leads to

00:06:27

peace and then the Third liberal

00:06:29

argument has to do with

00:06:31

institutions uh sometimes referred to as

00:06:34

liberal institutionalism and this is the

00:06:36

argument that if you can get States into

00:06:39

institutions where they become rule

00:06:42

abiding

00:06:44

actors they will obey the rules that

00:06:48

dictate that war is not

00:06:52

acceptable uh so if you get them to

00:06:54

accept uh uh the UN rules on when you

00:07:00

can and cannot initiate a war uh then

00:07:04

you'll have a more peaceful world so

00:07:06

those are the liberal theories and as

00:07:09

you can tell they're very different from

00:07:12

realism as articulated by somebody like

00:07:15

may can you uh maybe argue against the

00:07:19

economic interdependence and in the

00:07:21

institutions that institutions follow

00:07:23

rules um a little bit so the the the

00:07:27

Golden Goose with the golden egg

00:07:30

you're saying that nations are happy to

00:07:33

kill the goose because again they want

00:07:37

Power if they think it's necessary to

00:07:40

kill the Golden Goose yeah because of

00:07:43

security concerns they will do it the

00:07:47

point is that economic

00:07:51

interdependence at its root has

00:07:54

Prosperity as the core variable yeah in

00:07:58

the realist story story The Core

00:08:00

variable is survival and survival always

00:08:05

trumps

00:08:06

Prosperity so if you go back to the

00:08:10

period before World War I we're in

00:08:13

Europe it's

00:08:15

1913 or early

00:08:17

1914 what you see is that you have an

00:08:21

intense security competition between all

00:08:24

of the great powers on one side you have

00:08:26

the Triple Alliance and on the other

00:08:29

side you have the triple onon you have

00:08:31

these two alliances and you have an

00:08:33

intense security competition between

00:08:35

them okay at the same time you have a

00:08:38

great deal of economic interdependence

00:08:40

it's amazing how much economic

00:08:42

intercourse is taking place in Europe

00:08:45

among all the actors right and people

00:08:48

are getting prosperous or countries are

00:08:49

getting prosperous as a result but

00:08:52

nevertheless in the famous July crisis

00:08:55

of

00:08:56

1914 this economic prosperity is unable

00:09:00

to prevent World War I because security

00:09:03

concerns or survival is more important

00:09:06

uh so there are you know going to be

00:09:09

lots of situations where prosperity and

00:09:12

survival come into conflict and in those

00:09:15

cases survival will win and uh maybe you

00:09:19

can speak to the different camps of

00:09:22

realists you said offensive and

00:09:25

defensive can you draw a distinction

00:09:27

between those two yeah let me just back

00:09:29

up a bit on that one and you were

00:09:32

talking about Will To Power before uh

00:09:36

the first big

00:09:38

divide between realists is structural

00:09:42

realists and human nature realists nice

00:09:46

and Hans

00:09:48

morganth who was influenced by nature

00:09:51

and

00:09:52

therefore had that willto power logic

00:09:56

embedded in his thinking about how the

00:09:58

world works right he was a human nature

00:10:01

realist okay I'm a structural

00:10:05

realist and I believe it's not human

00:10:09

nature it's it's not individuals and

00:10:12

some Will To Power that drives

00:10:14

competition and War what drives

00:10:17

competition in war is the structure of

00:10:20

the system it's Anarchy so you're not as

00:10:22

romantic as the human nature realists

00:10:25

yeah there's just a a world of

00:10:27

difference between the two sure it's

00:10:29

just important to understand that so

00:10:31

within that from the structural that

00:10:34

there's a subdivision also of offensive

00:10:36

and defensive yes inside the structural

00:10:38

realist world right and you

00:10:42

have a handful of realists who believe

00:10:48

that the structure of the

00:10:50

system Fosters competition for sure

00:10:53

security competition but it really rules

00:10:58

out great power or War almost all the

00:11:01

time

00:11:03

so it makes sense to care about the

00:11:06

balance of power but to focus on

00:11:10

maintaining how much power you have

00:11:12

that's the defense of realism

00:11:14

maintaining how much power you have not

00:11:17

trying to gain more power because the

00:11:20

argument the defensive realists make is

00:11:22

that if you try to gain more power the

00:11:25

system will punish you the structure

00:11:27

will punish you

00:11:30

I'm not a defensive realist I'm an

00:11:33

offensive realist and my argument is

00:11:35

that states look for

00:11:38

opportunities to gain more power and

00:11:41

every time they see or almost every time

00:11:45

they see an opportunity to gain more

00:11:47

power U and they think the likelihood of

00:11:50

success is high and the cost will not be

00:11:53

great they'll jump at that

00:11:57

opportunity

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