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Table of contents

0:00
Начало
0:27
«Переговоры между Москвой и Киевом всегда были фейком»
3:34
«Крах той системы, которой служит Путин – приводит его к большому успеху»
6:12
О судьбе людей с Азовстали
8:15
Финляндия и Швеция готовы вступить в НАТО
9:39
«Военная элита России полностью подчиняется политической»
10:34
Руководит ли лично Путин передвижениями войск?
14:14
«Белоруссия активно вовлечена в войну и отмазаться от этого Лукашенко не удастся»
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  • ruRussian
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00:00:04
[music]
00:00:10
knows weeks it actually
00:00:13
became said in Kiev that it
00:00:15
was already quite clear to me that the negotiations
00:00:17
between Kiev and Moscow have stalled, they are
00:00:19
absent as such, what does it
00:00:21
mean now and how in this way, in this
00:00:24
case, the war can end if
00:00:26
possible in the coming months negotiations between
00:00:28
Moscow and Kiev have always been fake, and
00:00:30
therefore regarding the events of the twenty-
00:00:31
ninth of March 9 of this year in
00:00:34
Istanbul, I had no illusions.
00:00:35
I’m listening now to the situation, which is called a
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well-known joke about Rabinovich, who
00:00:39
says that I only have a
00:00:41
slight disagreement with the Bolsheviks on the land
00:00:43
issue. I want the Bolsheviks to lie on the
00:00:45
ground fans of the hotels you I lay on the ground
00:00:47
Vladimir Putin wants the unconditional
00:00:49
surrender of Ukraine recognition of the Russian
00:00:51
everywhere KHC and over the Crimea Donbass my
00:00:53
land corridors to the Crimea Ukraine
00:00:55
wants exactly the opposite they are
00:00:57
not ready so the fighting will
00:00:58
still continue in the active phase I think
00:01:00
until mid-summer, after which a
00:01:03
long, protracted positional war will begin, but there is
00:01:07
no need to talk about any peace treaty in the near future
00:01:09
since there is no
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basis for a compromise of consensus that
00:01:13
could be based on the basis of
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such a treaty, it turns out that a month
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ago there was at least some then the size of
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it was not there and then it was
00:01:21
just a skillful peak technique that was used by
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Vladimir Putin’s assistant Vladimir
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Medinsky because Russia needed to
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somehow justify its defeat in the
00:01:28
Kiev-Chernigov direction and the
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corresponding withdrawal of troops and
00:01:32
present these troops as a big
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concession Ukraine in general to the world
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community within the framework of a non-
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existent peace process, and
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all this was a purely manipulative
00:01:41
technique that did not in any way indicate
00:01:43
real meaningful peace
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negotiations, but a situation where both
00:01:46
sides are not ready to negotiate now
00:01:47
and both countries are confident in their
00:01:50
victory and both sides are ready to play in
00:01:53
the long run it doesn’t seem more dangerous to you
00:01:54
now, in fact there is simply no
00:01:57
other way it is extremely dangerous but it
00:02:00
became inevitable already in the first days of the war
00:02:01
when the Russian blitzkrieg
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plan failed and the Kremlin’s plan to capture Kiev in three days
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and put most of Ukraine under control in two weeks
00:02:08
here there was a great
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calculated disloyalty of certain
00:02:12
Ukrainian generals and
00:02:14
intelligence officials, betting that a significant
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part of the Ukrainian people would come out to shout
00:02:18
bread and salt at the Russian troops, but all this did
00:02:20
not take place, it became clear that
00:02:22
Russia did not have an effective plan; in addition, it
00:02:25
also became clear that the Ukrainian
00:02:27
armed forces are quite combat-ready and
00:02:29
are ready to fight for a long time with Russian
00:02:31
troops, finally the West is convinced
00:02:34
that Russia has not gone to the floor in
00:02:35
a few days, as political
00:02:38
and military analysts on both sides of the
00:02:39
ocean believed, and everywhere from the USA to Israel this
00:02:42
will not include the Kremlin’s fantasy, the
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West began to actively supply
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weapons in Ukraine to use sanctions
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mechanisms against Russia, so now
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all the prerequisites are in place for a
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life and a wife of war, so it will be, this
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war will be heine debilitating, first of all
00:02:55
for Ukraine, what to count on
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Vladimir Putin, he believes that the
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economic collapse of Ukraine which is
00:02:59
inevitable in war conditions and the destruction
00:03:02
of the critical infrastructure, first
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of all, hacked by bombing strikes by
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Russian troops, will bring it to its knees and
00:03:07
force it to sign some kind of peaceful
00:03:08
Putin’s conditions, respectively,
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Ukraine and much of the rest of the
00:03:12
world will count on exactly the opposite, that
00:03:13
exhausted Russia you will need to
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back up, but now these planes do
00:03:18
not intersect in any way, so what? reinforces this
00:03:19
belief of the Kremlin that they already have
00:03:21
enough resources and the Ukrainian ones will end
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earlier so I’m inclined to think, let’s take a bunch
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of this, there is no experience of serious defeats, he
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doesn’t know how to behave in such
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situations, he followed the president’s policy
00:03:32
from victory to victory, also at the
00:03:35
psychological level unconsciously generally field
00:03:36
to the fact that a certain
00:03:38
collapse of the system that serves to bring
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him great success as the Soviet Union
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made him 2 the second man of the city of
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St. Petersburg from a petty secret service
00:03:47
clerk as the administration of Anatoly
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Sobchak and in St. Petersburg the President of Russia
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now she should be a representative of the
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globe he still hopes that the
00:03:54
economic turmoil in Europe in the
00:03:56
next year and a half during the first
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critical rise in food and
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energy prices will force European
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politicians to reconsider their relations with
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Russia, lift sanctions or do not yet
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have significant softening, and at that
00:04:07
moment it will become a triumph of the special operation and its
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own economic the troubles do
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not yet confuse him; he is not embarrassed
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because he is betting, like
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his much more powerful historical
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predecessor Joseph Stalin,
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who proclaimed this as a
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programmatic thickly at a banquet in honor of
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Victory Day in 1145, on the boundless
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endless patience of the Russian people,
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which is much more than that of
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non-Europeans, therefore in in this conflict, the
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patience of the Russian Federation named after
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Vladimir Putin should prevail, in his
00:04:37
opinion, they began to talk about negotiations that there are
00:04:39
no formal ones between Moscow and Kiev, the
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legs were so formal, if
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in fact, isn’t there, where are you
00:04:43
local negotiations on specific
00:04:45
issues, find weeks, the evacuation of some of the
00:04:48
fighters immediately began we don’t know which
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part, how many are left, how many
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Ravan’s walks are exactly, but in Russia in the State Duma they have already started
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talking right away that a law needs to be
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passed that these are Nazi
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criminals, we will not exchange them
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and are subject to trial, and so on, what is this for
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this violation of agreements on the part of
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Moscow, we don’t know what we do
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n’t know what agreements have been reached,
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there is no official position on
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this issue, just like on all
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other issues, Ukraine says that these are
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evacuations for the purpose of
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subsequent exchange, Russia says exactly
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the opposite, that it’s just capture and only
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then will it be decided what to do with these
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fighters, therefore, the public
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is not on the basis of the formation and is
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actively intensifying the manifestations of the execution of these people
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as a demonstrative victory over
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modern Nazism from the point of view of the
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Kremlin and therefore even in the State
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Duma the deputy Slutsky who has now
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diluted the liberal democratic
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party of Russia after the death of one
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Wolfovich Zhirinovsky the legendary one
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says that it is necessary to suspend the
00:05:41
moratorium on the death penalty in order to
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deal with the fighters, showing it is possible
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that this is again a Kremlin
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game with the fact that Vladimir Putin at the decisive
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moment could show mercy and
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appear kinder than all his people and
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the only Europeans of Russia with whom
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thereby the West can still deal
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and, so to speak, pardon its fighters and
00:06:00
give them up for exchange, but it is still unclear, again
00:06:02
now there is not a single official
00:06:05
document, not even an oral
00:06:06
testimony that would reflect the general
00:06:08
point of view on this issue, it is not
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clear what Russia and Russia agreed on
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Ukraine agreed at all and after
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which it will be possible to talk with at least some
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confidence about the fate of these
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people from Azovstal to be evacuated after
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that, but most likely I think that they would still
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be the objects of
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criminal prosecution in Russia there will be a
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criminal trial approach to them 6 years
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again of the Committee of the Russian Federation
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because it is very important for the Kremlin to
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obtain, in one way or another,
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real or falsified but
00:06:33
evidence from fighters and zolla that
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would confirm war crimes on the
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part of Ukraine, well then it will be
00:06:39
recorded, it will include interrogation, and then in a
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court decision, I’m already after the trial of
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this people, Putin can pardon them and
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exchange them, I think that in the course of events it
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may be something like this, that is, these
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people, these fighters immediately stood up, they
00:06:54
become such
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propagandists or something like a picture, of course,
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of course, because fearing it, there are practically
00:07:01
no victories during the special operation z
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and even 9 in May, at the war parade, Putin did not
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name a single success of this
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special operation,
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contrary to numerous expectations, therefore,
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taking Azovstal will be perceived as the first main symbolic victory, and thus they fell
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as a whole, which means the closure of the land
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as a share in the Crimea, but also since Putin
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unexpectedly the process of the special operation realized
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that he was fighting global
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Nazism, which had won everywhere except
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Russia, obviously China, including in
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Europe,
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took into account the Kremlin’s point of view that the
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NATO bloc itself is Nazi and
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was created to take revenge for the Second
00:07:38
World War, that is, thereby
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saying that the Nazis created so
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that Germany would take revenge for the Second
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World War, there is some truth in this,
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also as a result of the creation of NATO and
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becoming part of the free me in the
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democratic country of Germany, my
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ability 8 steps for the Second World War,
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turning into one of the leaders of Europe
00:07:56
and the free world, but wait sky the
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madness of the Kremlin is getting worse and therefore
00:08:01
since the regiment at the call has been declared itself a
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gathering of standard Nazis,
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we are demonstrating an important symbolic and with all our might the victory over
00:08:08
this Nazism specifically in Mariupol
00:08:11
at the call of steel you yourself started talking about NATO
00:08:13
another such topic of the week actually
00:08:15
Finland Sweden the fans are ready to step
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it will be the longest land
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border of Russia with the alliance, while
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Vladimir Putin says that we have
00:08:24
no problems at all with the fact that Finland
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is coming out of Ukraine, there was a problem of
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information problems, apparently the planet is
00:08:29
1 meters away from Ukraine, there were qualitative
00:08:31
differences for Putin in the fact that
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he considers Ukraine his own that the Russian people live there are
00:08:35
simply deceived, skillfully
00:08:36
turned into Ukrainian by Western
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logan diss to me and NATO ideologists
00:08:41
1 cheat Anglo-Saxon to lose is not
00:08:44
ours, so naturally we treat it
00:08:45
calmly what kind of metal cream or personally
00:08:47
Putin really hopes that Turkey
00:08:49
will block the entry of Sweden and
00:08:51
Finland into NATO and since thus in
00:08:53
our next year Sweden and Finland
00:08:55
will not become members of NATO according to Putin’s
00:08:57
plan, in a year and a half
00:08:59
there will be a complete triumph of special operation z
00:09:01
because of the revolution in Europe, fearing reconciliation of it
00:09:03
and its expense to the United States and thereby in
00:09:06
Ukraine everything will put an end to it, especially
00:09:07
the date as long as Sweden and Finland
00:09:09
will enter here such Molly will win
00:09:11
therefore Putin demonstrates such
00:09:13
deliberately and calmness in relation to the
00:09:15
prospects for Euro-Atlantic
00:09:17
integration of these two countries in fact there is a
00:09:18
clear meaning of Vladimir Putin how the negro
00:09:20
consolidated rallied the Western world
00:09:22
against itself and against Russia what does it mean
00:09:24
for Russia certainly long-term
00:09:26
negative consequences, it seems to you that the
00:09:27
military command of Russia, in addition to
00:09:29
Vladimir Putin, actually
00:09:30
shares his optimism in the sense that
00:09:33
the general should probably understand that the
00:09:35
NATO bloc on the borders of Russia is precisely the
00:09:38
military elite in Russia, especially since the
00:09:41
military Lithuania Russia, especially since the
00:09:42
destruction of the title signs of the junior
00:09:45
Stalin at the end of 1100 30s it
00:09:47
turns out completely political the
00:09:49
military do and say what you want
00:09:51
to hear it get from them the
00:09:53
political leadership Putin's faces their
00:09:55
own optimism does not matter it is
00:09:57
already quite obvious that the current
00:09:59
Russian army is not suitable for a big
00:10:01
war what is the result that the
00:10:03
military reforms carried out under Putin meant that the
00:10:05
armed forces were
00:10:07
transformed into a force for special operations of
00:10:09
local conflicts and that is
00:10:12
why Putin called the war
00:10:13
a special operation because to realize heaven 1
00:10:16
there wanted to become a special operation a
00:10:17
small war it became a big war
00:10:19
and in this big war it is old-fashioned
00:10:22
hierarchical structure and these and feed
00:10:24
demonstrate their very limited
00:10:25
capacity, but the
00:10:27
official Russian
00:10:28
nicknames cannot say about this, therefore they will not
00:10:29
follow Putin’s strategy of
00:10:31
starving out Ukraine, since the women of
00:10:33
the world and you believe what the
00:10:36
British press writes, the publication garden Putin
00:10:38
almost not personally at the level of a
00:10:39
colonel general to direct the movements of
00:10:41
troops, of course, unlike the
00:10:43
Guardians, I do not have reliable sources
00:10:45
that would confirm this, but I
00:10:47
know Vladimir Putin very well as a tactician, they are a
00:10:49
strategist who, if interested in
00:10:51
any issues, is ready to delve into any
00:10:53
little detail, I am quite ready to assume that this is so
00:10:55
and yes, it doesn’t seem incredible to me
00:10:57
what fate awaits
00:10:58
occupied Kherson;
00:11:00
Russia will try to annex it in the coming months;
00:11:03
claim the entire
00:11:05
land corridor, including a separate
00:11:07
area of ​​the Zaporizhzhya region in Berdyansk
00:11:09
and Melitopol, the territory of Russia; it
00:11:11
will be stated that any attempts to return
00:11:12
it are already an attack on territorial
00:11:15
integrity and the very existence of Russia,
00:11:16
therefore Russia can answer in any
00:11:18
form that with the use of weapons of
00:11:20
mass destruction, I understand that this
00:11:22
can probably be studied somehow, but this
00:11:24
was not even the stated goals of
00:11:25
the special operation, and in no way does it
00:11:27
relate to Donbass, and the stated
00:11:29
goals with the stated goals for special
00:11:31
operations there were
00:11:32
demilitarization denazification of Ukraine
00:11:34
translated into
00:11:36
Russian from Putin's language into
00:11:38
Russian this means the following
00:11:40
denazification is the taking of power in Kiev
00:11:44
in Kiev a double pro-Russian president, which was what
00:11:46
was supposed to be done the first
00:11:48
few days after the landing of
00:11:50
Russian troops on and ancestral
00:11:52
Antonovka one hundred miles and after which Vladimir
00:11:54
Zelensky either had to be captured
00:11:56
or flee and such a handsome one could have
00:11:58
nominated Viktor Yanukovych for
00:11:59
the presidency, could have nominated
00:12:01
one of the key
00:12:03
figures and an opposition platform for the life of the
00:12:05
main pro-Russian force in Ukraine for this post until
00:12:07
recently, now everything is no longer
00:12:09
relevant and practically does not exist, and the
00:12:11
demilitarization of Russia’s actual destruction of the
00:12:13
Ukrainian military infrastructure
00:12:15
and the replacement of the army with a self-defense force in
00:12:17
this sense, let him be going
00:12:18
to grab all of Ukraine and
00:12:20
partially the exe of Ukraine to say is
00:12:23
only a composition, this is already out of despair from the
00:12:26
inability to implement the
00:12:27
special operation plan as a whole, although
00:12:28
Putin still believes that when
00:12:30
Europe howls from the famine
00:12:32
provoked by him, he will force his
00:12:35
rulers to come to an agreement with Russia, all the same,
00:12:37
Ukraine is an overripe pear and will fall at the
00:12:38
Russian feet at the Kremlin feet and it is
00:12:41
unlikely that, well, of course, the merciful and
00:12:44
merciful tyrant sitting in the Kremlin is ready to
00:12:46
give up the West, say, the Bingleys of Transcarpathia
00:12:48
Poland Galicia and Volhynia, but
00:12:51
most of the dry others will take it into his fiction
00:12:54
that in occupied Kherson there
00:12:55
will not even be a formal referendum, I think
00:12:57
that the Kremlin is afraid to hold or freons
00:12:59
in Kherson because, unlike the Crimea and the
00:13:01
2014 example, it is not and its outcome is not clear,
00:13:03
but how is this possible then to do it even
00:13:06
legally, well, somehow, to say this,
00:13:09
everyone is sitting with Kremlin lawyers to
00:13:11
come up with some kind of cunning scheme that
00:13:12
will exactly correspond to the Leninist
00:13:14
principle in form, correctly in substance,
00:13:15
bullying, Vladimir Putin generally
00:13:17
loves such principles and such methods, in
00:13:21
this case, big movements have begun again
00:13:22
in Belarus troops on the border
00:13:24
with Ukraine, there was again talk about
00:13:26
what could happen and how Putin met with a vest,
00:13:30
there was talk again about what
00:13:32
could really be 5
00:13:33
aggression on
00:13:36
Ukraine on the part of Belarus and let him and Lukashenko
00:13:39
finally agree, so half like you Do you think that
00:13:41
Vladimir Putin has long wanted Alexander
00:13:43
Lukashenko to send someone to send
00:13:45
Russian troops to Western Ukraine
00:13:47
largely to provoke Polish
00:13:49
troops? This is Putin’s real tactical goal to
00:13:52
make Poland get involved
00:13:53
in the conflict. I could say that NATO is
00:13:55
participating in the war against Russia, I again
00:13:58
Alexander Lukashenko, due to his current
00:14:00
dependence on Putin, is well
00:14:01
aware that their price for
00:14:03
Belarus is catastrophic, so he
00:14:04
will do his best to avoid it, but already the
00:14:06
territory of Belarus is used for
00:14:08
shelling and Ukraine for missile and bomb
00:14:10
strikes for takeoff in combat aircraft on
00:14:12
Russian Federation, the poet can, of course,
00:14:14
Belarus is actively involved in the war and
00:14:15
Alexander Lukashenko will not be able to excuse himself from this,
00:14:17
he simply does not want to allow
00:14:18
the defeat of his own army, which all
00:14:21
consists of 30 thousand capable fighters,
00:14:23
and Putin already has leverage
00:14:26
over Lukashenko, so
00:14:27
Lukashenko remains to start anyway Putin resists
00:14:29
David what will this lead to and the
00:14:31
next few days thank you very, very much
00:14:37
[music]

Description:

Политический аналитик Станислав Белковский о том, сколько продлится война, что ждет бойцов с "Азовстали" и остались ли у Путина рычаги влияния на Лукашенко https://rferl.click/qB6V 0:00 Начало 0:27 «Переговоры между Москвой и Киевом всегда были фейком» 3:34 «Крах той системы, которой служит Путин – приводит его к большому успеху» 6:12 О судьбе людей с Азовстали 8:15 Финляндия и Швеция готовы вступить в НАТО 9:39 «Военная элита России полностью подчиняется политической» 10:34 Руководит ли лично Путин передвижениями войск? 14:14 «Белоруссия активно вовлечена в войну и отмазаться от этого Лукашенко не удастся»

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