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Russian
00:00:00
selfish greedy stupid00:00:02
incompetent this is a very unstable00:00:05
track there is continuous hammering dominates00:00:08
that it is the most conservative groups of00:00:10
the population primitivization forced into00:00:13
moronicity sincere and not sincere This is00:00:16
completely unimportant They do not solve00:00:18
real problems00:00:19
[music]00:00:34
Good evening dear friends This is00:00:36
the program inhale exhale My name is Stas00:00:38
Kryuchkov I am glad to meet you on the00:00:40
Khodorkovsky Life channel Subscribe,00:00:42
leave your comments, like and00:00:46
share this link among your friends,00:00:48
family and acquaintances, this helps in00:00:51
distributing this video today00:00:53
sociologist Lev Gudkov is with us00:00:56
[music]00:01:00
Lev Dmitrievich Hello Good evening00:01:02
Glad to see you00:01:04
Good evening,00:01:07
you know this may be an extremely general00:01:10
question, but nevertheless, how would you describe the00:01:12
prevailing mood in society at the moment, the00:01:15
social mood,00:01:21
but00:01:22
in anticipation of hope00:01:26
and some pessimism, such a00:01:30
combination of00:01:31
hopes, illusions and the expectation of uncertainty00:01:37
and the expectation of the worst, something00:01:39
like this, speaking00:01:43
in principle over the year, in relation to what is00:01:49
called a00:01:50
special military operation,00:01:54
almost nothing has changed,00:01:58
except for some slight00:02:01
increase in support for military actions,00:02:05
general consolidation00:02:07
in relation to the authorities, approval,00:02:12
all ratings have gone up, the00:02:15
perception of the authorities about politicians has become00:02:18
much more favorable, which00:02:21
amazes me Simply00:02:22
I would say that even the assessments turned upside down a00:02:25
year ago, the relationship in00:02:30
principle with the00:02:32
political class was very00:02:34
critical,00:02:37
the majority believed that we00:02:41
were arriving in such a mafia-like,00:02:43
corrupt state that00:02:45
officials and politicians put themselves above00:02:48
the law,00:02:51
they are selfish, greedy, not smart,00:02:54
incompetent,00:02:57
immoral, and so on, today00:03:01
the situation has changed00:03:04
political the class is perceived as00:03:06
patriots, competent believers, some00:03:10
stylish, etc., this is the result,00:03:14
firstly, of information isolation00:03:17
practically00:03:20
in the public field for the majority of00:03:23
any authoritative critical00:03:27
opinions, assessments, because everything is squeezed00:03:31
out of the borders or into Telegram channels, that’s00:03:40
why00:03:45
[music]00:03:46
growth,00:03:48
say, of Putin’s rating but it rose to 8300:03:53
percent,00:03:55
this is high, this is not the maximum value, but it is00:03:58
close to them and00:04:01
[music]00:04:02
popularity approval of the activities of the Duma of the00:04:06
deputy corps, the government all00:04:09
rose a little, not much, but this is a00:04:12
very steady00:04:15
buildup of this threat from the outside,00:04:19
it forces people to put aside all00:04:23
claims to power and unite for00:04:27
protection, the fact that this is a fictitious defense is a00:04:31
fictitious threat, but it’s not00:04:36
perceived because there is a00:04:38
continuous chattering like this00:04:40
on television and Propaganda in this00:04:43
sense. It turns out to be very00:04:45
effective,00:04:47
this is the second time, I already said that00:04:51
almost all information channels are blocked,00:04:55
although in a year the number of people who00:04:58
they are able to bypass the00:05:00
blocking of00:05:02
Roskomnadzor has increased slightly But00:05:05
still this is00:05:07
no more than 20 percent more these are00:05:12
younger groups more00:05:13
educated these are mainly large00:05:16
cities but young people although they have access00:05:21
to information they distance themselves from what is00:05:24
happening much less00:05:27
included in what is happening in Ukraine in00:05:31
political00:05:32
events She is trying to do00:05:36
their own business, therefore,00:05:39
it dominates the most conservative groups of the population,00:05:42
these are00:05:44
older people, they make up And the00:05:48
majority is simply purely in00:05:51
demographic terms, the majority of00:05:53
young people are few now00:05:55
and00:05:57
they their opinion, their ideas00:06:00
turn out to be more important, more significant00:06:04
than the opinion of opponents of the war, I can00:06:08
clarify about the youth This is00:06:11
conscious a conformist life00:06:13
position or is it an inevitability that you00:06:17
accept if there is segmentation in the circle of00:06:21
generations less than 40 on this matter00:06:26
Well,00:06:28
there is but it is small on the continuum00:06:31
there is no There is a clear differentiation but00:06:35
there are some continuum more00:06:38
[music]00:06:41
people are concerned About 25 years 2500:06:45
about 30 years this is exactly the age00:06:50
when people start families, they00:06:53
no longer have00:06:54
that youthful romanticism of idealism,00:06:57
they have gained a lot of money and begin to understand00:07:01
what’s what. They begin to take00:07:04
responsibility for the family; children appear00:07:06
and they are much more critical; they are00:07:11
skeptical about propaganda. They were00:07:14
more worried, but this is to say00:07:17
I’ll say it again about young people: up to 30 years old, the00:07:22
population structure00:07:26
under 30 years old is only 15 percent of the00:07:28
population.00:07:30
Very little, the00:07:32
bulk are still older people who00:07:37
identify themselves with the state,00:07:39
rely on the state and00:07:43
reproduce all the complexes of the Soviet00:07:46
era,00:07:48
disappointed in the course of reforms,00:07:51
democracy. Although this they don’t really00:07:55
understand what democracy is, but rather00:07:59
it is combined with this some protection00:08:02
from the arbitrariness of officials and the00:08:07
idea of a customized state that00:08:10
takes care of people,00:08:13
well, plus Propaganda has really00:08:16
raised a very strong anti-Western00:08:18
mood. I propose for each of00:08:22
the points Propaganda Putin illusions of hope,00:08:25
expectations of tomorrow day to walk00:08:28
separately And now, purely00:08:30
methodologically, determine the00:08:32
possibilities with the current possibilities of00:08:35
sociology because for me a significant00:08:38
presumption is that we proceed from the00:08:40
possibility of sociology to exist in the00:08:44
circumstances offered to it, but00:08:48
nevertheless based on the fact that it has00:08:51
the resource to give answers to the00:08:53
question of this or that dynamics talk about00:08:56
social trends and, to a certain00:08:58
extent, from numbers, that is, you00:09:01
will agree if I propose to00:09:02
fix we are dealing with something00:09:06
not to pay attention to, which would be a00:09:09
sacrilege, that is, sociology is important and00:09:11
essential And talk about what the data of00:09:15
sociologists00:09:17
during the war are00:09:19
untenable deceptive or false,00:09:22
well, at least it’s neglect Well,00:09:26
sociology works as a certain given thing00:09:29
No, I don’t agree, nothing fundamental00:09:33
happened during the year of the war in this sense,00:09:37
people answered the same way and answer many00:09:40
times, they checked this and the point is not that00:09:44
how asserts that people are afraid00:09:48
to answer something else, they simply do not00:09:51
have other ideas, and this is00:09:54
the most important thing that the idea00:09:56
arises in response to00:09:59
Especially if it does not00:10:01
directly concern their experience of their everyday00:10:05
life But it concerns some abstract00:10:07
things that are shown on television,00:10:11
this is00:10:12
extremely important people do not have their00:10:15
own resources there are no means for00:10:18
analysis00:10:21
this can only be done by00:10:24
specialists and accordingly00:10:27
this is what is needed for00:10:31
public intellectuals professors00:10:34
journalists commentators who could00:10:38
rationalize and critically00:10:40
present the consequences of certain00:10:42
events based on the00:10:45
analytical data they have means of00:10:48
intellectual means The masses of00:10:50
the population, deprived of this, do not have such00:10:54
means, therefore this decision did not00:10:57
happen in the last year;00:10:59
we have already been living in such an intensifying00:11:04
totalitarian society for about 15 years,00:11:07
if not more;00:11:09
repression did not begin today or yesterday,00:11:14
approximately almost 20 years ago no longer00:11:18
it just intensified during this time, a00:11:21
generation00:11:23
formed under the Putin00:11:25
regime entered into thinking in this way, having00:11:28
internalized all the rhetoric and all the demagoguery of00:11:31
the authorities and it is00:11:33
quite difficult to change this situation,00:11:36
therefore all this talk about how something is different00:11:39
during the war.00:11:41
No, generally speaking,00:11:46
the war does not concern the main the masses of00:11:50
the population00:11:51
this is extremely important when we00:11:54
ask How are you in the mood today the00:11:58
usual mood is calm everything is fine00:12:02
young people and officials are more00:12:05
optimistic about pensioners00:12:07
because00:12:09
diseases fears poverty00:12:21
seems to hardly affect them they do not00:12:25
understand the connection that their00:12:27
purchasing power is decreasing that00:12:32
they are not they can get medicine there,00:12:34
medical services, it’s like each00:12:38
specific case, it’s in this00:12:40
hospital, it’s not generally bad with medicine in00:12:43
Russia, it’s this opinion that00:12:47
you get, it’s always partial00:12:50
knowledge, it’s another matter for doctors who can00:12:53
look at it a little more broadly, so00:12:56
doctors like that, you know, run from Russia or00:13:00
flow from the provinces to Moscow, where00:13:03
salaries are higher. Especially a00:13:09
large number of doctors,00:13:13
people are not able to00:13:16
establish a connection between certain00:13:19
events and to a very large extent, an00:13:23
explanation of what is happening is offered to them, as00:13:25
before, by television,00:13:27
television, dolberg, this very00:13:30
primitive explanations. But00:13:35
the more primitive the00:13:38
easier it is to assimilate00:13:47
intellectually if I return to00:13:50
sociology and still to the dynamics of00:13:53
refusals or interruptions in communication, the past00:13:56
year has shown me that there are more of them,00:13:59
that is, it is clear that people’s readiness to communicate is00:14:02
accompanied by00:14:04
methodologically and in a certain way,00:14:06
but nevertheless has not increased00:14:10
no00:14:14
no How did you How was00:14:19
what is called response rate, it00:14:21
has not changed and it is at the level of00:14:24
approximately the European00:14:26
surveyed services, it is higher than in France00:14:30
and a little bit lower than, say, West00:14:33
Germany, we have approximately 2500:14:39
in France 16 West Germany 2800:14:45
this is the actual achievability00:14:49
of it determined not by fear by the fact that people00:14:53
are not at home in the first place, but we conduct personal00:14:57
interviews at their place of residence, they are at00:15:00
work, they are busy feeding a child there00:15:03
or something else, there are a lot of00:15:07
reasons why, purely00:15:10
technically, they are not achievable, this is00:15:14
very important00:15:18
respondent I am also a very frequent important they are00:15:25
afraid to open the doors because there are00:15:29
scammers, speculators and so on if00:15:34
we talk about the stated00:15:36
reasons for refusal, then they What is the00:15:45
proportion of refusals higher for those who00:15:48
[music]00:15:53
and This varies very much00:15:56
among loyal groups of the population the00:16:01
number of refusals is about 8 times higher than for00:16:06
people who are critical anti-war00:16:08
sentiments00:16:10
According to the latter, I considered this based00:16:14
on the materials of the February survey, this00:16:18
is important, you understand,00:16:21
if we talk about fear, it is fear that00:16:25
determines both conformism and loyalty, and that is why it is00:16:29
there that the percentage of00:16:32
refusals is higher, who refuses, who officials00:16:36
speak on sensitive topics, although00:16:39
of course they are extremely00:16:42
conformist,00:16:45
older women do not refuse very educated,00:16:48
just in case, because they don’t really00:16:51
understand this, but they are not the only ones who are scared,00:16:54
but their parents are from00:16:57
Soviet times, so00:17:00
they have no other ideas. But00:17:04
approximately,00:17:06
if we use Bolgakov’s expression00:17:08
from the theatrical novel, we do00:17:11
not rebel against the authorities, we are supported, but00:17:15
is this a marker? the insincerity of00:17:19
this loyalty which they talk about00:17:22
then00:17:23
forgive me. Is this a marker of the00:17:27
insincerity of this00:17:30
demonstrated loyalty00:17:35
from the point of view it makes absolutely no difference.00:17:37
What difference does it make to you sincerely if they00:17:41
behave like this00:17:43
if they Our Madhouse vote for Putin00:17:46
as he sang00:17:47
in one song but they they vote they00:17:52
approve it they support it but sincerely not00:17:56
sincerely This is not at all important00:17:59
from the point of view of the00:18:01
consequences of this they can keep00:18:04
figures in their pocket and other things probably00:18:07
some part00:18:12
answers insincerely But this absolutely does not00:18:16
matter because what is00:18:18
important is precisely this symbolic00:18:22
support for the actions of the authorities if 7700:18:25
percent00:18:27
approve of the actions of00:18:30
Russian troops in Ukraine and do not want to00:18:34
hear anything about the negative sides of the00:18:38
death of people,00:18:40
the destruction of infrastructure, etc., then00:18:43
this is a fact, they are pushing out00:18:46
[music]00:18:47
unpleasant events, defending themselves, defending00:18:51
their conformism, and so on, this is one00:18:53
side of the00:18:54
other side of00:18:57
this,00:19:01
they feel it Here are some of00:19:06
their identification with the state, they00:19:10
perceive themselves as00:19:14
subjects of this great power and are00:19:18
ready to see00:19:21
this construction of reality precisely as a00:19:25
confrontation between the West and Russia, therefore the00:19:28
heroic Putin does00:19:32
not need to confront the Americans and others who00:19:35
want to destroy Russia, take away something there,00:19:39
weaken, humiliate and so on it works00:19:43
everything else all the other arguments are00:19:46
facts they are crowded out and are00:19:50
not considered significant they don’t want to hear00:19:54
what doesn’t correspond to their00:19:57
ideas this time on the other hand I’ll00:20:00
play along with you a little 50 percent00:20:04
want an end to the war00:20:09
the beginning of peace negotiations00:20:13
you understand that these are almost the same00:20:16
people, if 77 percent, then two thirds of00:20:19
these 77 percent would like an immediate00:20:22
end to the war, but on what conditions00:20:24
the first00:20:27
exchange of prisoners the00:20:30
second00:20:32
refusal of Ukraine from those territories00:20:37
captured by Russian troops00:20:39
refusal of Crimea and so on, that is,00:20:44
agreement to all the00:20:48
goals that00:20:53
the policy00:20:55
starting this war from Ukraine00:20:59
and of course 76 percent believe that00:21:04
one of the most important conditions for such peace00:21:08
negotiations was Ukraine’s refusal00:21:10
to retreat to NATO, which makes absolutely,00:21:14
you understand, the negotiations themselves are not realistic,00:21:23
that is, in reality, these are00:21:28
negotiations or a cessation of00:21:31
hostilities, this means the capitulation of00:21:33
Ukraine and surrender completely, just well then00:21:38
that he declared his own at the very00:21:40
beginning of00:21:41
the war00:21:43
and the activation of the critical apparatus does not00:21:47
occur in principle on the subject that00:21:50
Sweden,00:21:51
Finland is already on the threshold of NATO, Ukraine00:21:56
is suffering those sacrifices that are00:22:00
not actually comparable to the goals00:22:03
that were proclaimed on the 24th,00:22:07
this is a completely00:22:09
blocked logic of reasoning and00:22:12
is it really possible that the TV is capable of00:22:15
acting exactly like that, yes exactly like that,00:22:21
I say again, a00:22:30
strong process of degradation of society,00:22:34
there is a lack of authoritative opinions, a00:22:36
lack of public discussions and goals00:22:40
about the purpose of the policies being pursued,00:22:43
if so, then people do not have a00:22:47
mass of the population, they do not have their own means.00:22:51
You understand, when00:22:54
I hear this all the time,00:22:57
distrust of sociology, other,00:23:00
etc. speakers’ own consciousness it00:23:04
replaces00:23:06
knowledge00:23:08
of consciousness00:23:11
there is a projection of attribution of one’s own00:23:14
characteristics of thinking skills to the population00:23:17
as a whole00:23:19
this is a big mistake and generally speaking it’s not00:23:23
just a mistake it’s the00:23:26
lack of development of our intellectual00:23:29
public there00:23:31
is no mechanism for00:23:34
introducing scientific00:23:37
interpretations of scientific analyzes firstly the00:23:42
eight-day environment and accordingly this00:23:45
transmission in me of extremely primitive00:23:49
ideas about the structure of society about the00:23:51
composition of society and the00:23:54
phobias that are within the00:23:56
prejudices of Russia and so on, the00:24:01
educated community has risen a little,00:24:04
comparison with the Soviet level,00:24:07
it has risen a little but has lost00:24:10
the top the most00:24:12
refined layer of intellectuals00:24:15
that we00:24:17
knew there in00:24:19
the seventies,00:24:27
Mordashvili00:24:29
and other things like that00:24:40
compilers that bring everything together,00:24:55
if I return to the conversation about the dynamics of the00:24:58
idea of what is happening and who00:25:01
finally changed their attitude towards the war, and00:25:05
various sociological services show00:25:07
that such a group00:25:10
still appears among the respondents. Yes, how correct from a00:25:13
methodological point of view is it not to00:25:16
imitate, so observe some00:25:19
scientific frequency to ask a question so that00:25:22
you can make a sociologically00:25:25
significant conclusion about uh in what00:25:28
plane00:25:29
this attitude is changing and, in fact,00:25:32
what you can work with somewhere a00:25:36
population group that can be00:25:37
addressed somewhere a population group00:25:40
that is ready to00:25:42
critically engage in the conversation is00:25:45
critical This is fundamental00:25:48
Well, look00:25:49
What is sociological00:25:54
Solidarity is this understanding that my00:25:58
opinion00:26:01
I see in this actually a manifestation of one’s00:26:04
own dignity therefore those who00:26:07
speak00:26:09
openly speak differently, those who00:26:20
think differently with a different resource of00:26:23
intellectual resources, cultural and00:26:26
informational resources and a completely different00:26:29
own consciousness of00:26:31
their dignity there are few of them about there, from 6 to 1200:26:37
percent,00:26:39
it is also00:26:42
clear that this is more educated, these are,00:26:45
as a rule, highly educated people, these are00:26:49
families in which there are at least two or three00:26:53
generations, people, parents with higher00:26:55
education,00:26:56
certain cultural00:26:59
social, reflexive capital,00:27:02
analytical capital have developed,00:27:04
and there are also adjacent layers. But this00:27:08
up to about 20 there are 25 percent who are00:27:13
less educated but quite00:27:16
[music]00:27:18
radically thinking, radically in the00:27:21
sense that00:27:22
they are trying to think out some of their00:27:25
thoughts, their00:27:27
ideas. Trying to think out what,00:27:30
generally speaking, it is very difficult to think,00:27:33
especially for people who are not very educated,00:27:37
so00:27:38
to think out this, generally speaking, is a lot of00:27:40
work and complexity is necessary to come into00:27:44
conflict with the environment of such00:27:47
people, I say again In general,00:27:51
this is approximately 20 percent of the population,00:27:56
say this number in different ways Yes, from 600:28:00
to 20 we will count it so, to some00:28:04
extent, in its position it turns out to be important00:28:08
and significant for people actually making00:28:12
decisions, that is, looking at the position of less00:28:16
than a quarter of the country's population,00:28:19
perhaps it is needed, is it being demonstrated and has it00:28:23
ever been demonstrated?00:28:27
Well, a00:28:28
number of 20 30 ago It was significant it00:28:35
was It was very important and the authorities00:28:37
took into account the mood, opinion, interests00:28:41
of these people relied on them because,00:28:44
generally speaking, perestroika was done from my00:28:47
point of view by bureaucracy00:28:50
bureaucracy these are people with education00:28:54
with a certain horizon a00:28:59
higher sense of responsibility00:29:02
for what is happening because they are00:29:05
bureaucracies middle management bureaucracy00:29:07
It deals with real problems and00:29:11
all00:29:13
horizons they better understood the situation00:29:16
had access00:29:18
official information classified information00:29:22
understood the real problems,00:29:27
today the authorities00:29:31
do not just00:29:33
ignore opinion. They destroy00:29:36
that layer or that environment that actually00:29:42
has the potential to not only act critically, but00:29:47
even think that what we see today is00:29:52
no longer just closing there, blocking00:29:55
information channels, but destroying00:29:58
owl memorial and other organizations00:30:03
coercion of00:30:05
informationism intimidation00:30:09
intimidation of the public both00:30:14
judicial practice and Roskomnadzor are aimed at this, in00:30:18
principle00:30:19
the state has been00:30:21
behaving for several years like a00:30:24
typical totalitarian regime, trying00:30:27
to control not even external00:30:29
loyalty, but00:30:31
what people think, what people can even00:30:36
think is00:30:38
extremely important extending its00:30:41
influence to all areas Where before,00:30:47
family life, moral art,00:30:49
culture, religion, science, etc. are the00:30:53
result of this long-term00:30:57
influence, this and I say again This is a00:31:01
slow but irreversible process and00:31:03
gradation of society during snowstorming,00:31:06
lack of development00:31:08
and Unification that at least seems to be00:31:12
not yet felt00:31:14
Since the transformation, in any00:31:18
case, as you say during the period of00:31:19
perestroika, began with shifts in the00:31:23
mentality and ideas of00:31:25
the bureaucracy, then apparently attempts to understand what00:31:29
is the determining motivation of the00:31:32
current bureaucracy are being made and00:31:36
now this kind of abandonment Yes,00:31:39
this kind of00:31:41
research can be hidden, maybe00:31:44
indirectly. They demonstrate00:31:46
what the general mood of the bureaucratic00:31:50
class is really not in the readiness00:31:53
to act, yes, but in the structure00:31:57
of thinking, yes, in the structure of understanding00:31:59
what is happening,00:32:04
I am not talking about the entire bureaucracy, but the00:32:07
middle echelons, because above this is an00:32:11
absolutely corrupt layer, that is, a00:32:15
fixed one of those who contribute to00:32:17
the functioning of the state apparatus itself,00:32:20
those who are connected with the real00:32:23
problems of00:32:24
managing medicine, providing transport there,00:32:29
social spheres, roads, it’s all00:32:33
bureaucracy,00:32:38
control00:32:42
over this layer is really being tightened and there is strong00:32:46
coercion, including repression, we believe00:32:50
that repression is only against the opposition.00:32:52
But generally speaking, they don’t go to00:32:56
the highest and middle levels, they are00:32:59
constantly00:33:01
carried out like this at the highest level is00:33:03
simply noticeable and there are00:33:06
foundation centers that monitor this, let’s00:33:10
say the foundation of a St. Petersburg politician,00:33:13
all these cases every year, according to the data00:33:16
there from the foundation of a St. Petersburg00:33:19
politician or there Nikolai Petrov,00:33:22
professor Nikolai Petrov,00:33:23
2% above the nomenclature are arrested00:33:28
for 5 years for 5-6 years - this means00:33:32
10-12% higher than the management team Well, we’re00:33:36
flying away well,00:33:38
all these big names,00:33:43
we perceive this as a00:33:46
manifestation of corruption, in fact, in00:33:47
reality this is coercion of loyalty,00:33:52
intimidation of precisely this top layer and00:33:57
coercion of some loyalty,00:34:00
including to the business of the largest business00:34:05
at the middle level it’s not so noticeable, but it’s00:34:08
just all00:34:10
the multiplicity of this word, but it goes there00:34:13
if the security forces are in power,00:34:18
representatives of the political police00:34:20
who00:34:22
initially act outside the legal ones,00:34:25
so this is its status,00:34:29
special secret police, special00:34:33
department. What does special police department mean? This means00:34:36
this department is removed from the usual00:34:38
official regulation; it is subject to00:34:41
other rules. behavior and the entire00:34:45
system is an action outside the legal framework with00:34:49
special statuses they control the00:34:52
judiciary, administrative authorities, etc., but the00:34:55
security forces themselves are specialists in00:35:00
violence, coercion, control, but00:35:03
they are not competent leaders, they do not00:35:06
solve real problems, you understand,00:35:08
so this is also one of the factors00:35:12
[music]00:35:14
degradation00:35:15
of society00:35:17
primitivization of coercion for such imbecility00:35:22
is compensated for and of course the00:35:28
security forces cannot think differently in00:35:32
these categories;00:35:37
this is a00:35:38
narrowing or reduction of00:35:42
managerial bureaucratic competence; of course, it00:35:47
has only one outcome; this is00:35:51
the perspective of the00:35:53
system;00:35:54
accumulation of dysfunction and collapse of the00:35:58
fear of the system; it cannot00:36:02
exist because the only00:36:05
tool is violence, coercion, this is00:36:09
not a solution to real problems, but the00:36:12
system cannot help but be aware of00:36:15
the prospects of its collapse and obviously00:36:18
it must, in any case,00:36:20
undertake00:36:22
some real responses to the challenges00:36:25
coming from this middle area,00:36:29
where everyday issues are resolved00:36:31
or00:36:34
else how can it be,00:36:37
how can it be00:36:39
exactly the way it is if you remove the00:36:42
block of systemic, so to speak, liberals,00:36:45
economists,00:36:47
cautious and attentive people who00:36:50
understand what certain steps can lead to,00:36:54
of course00:36:56
the system is deprived00:37:02
Well, generally speaking, the situation in which00:37:06
Russia finds itself today00:37:09
is a00:37:11
pre-catastrophic situation,00:37:18
they oppose Russia if the country00:37:23
finds itself among a small group of00:37:26
outcast countries Well, if00:37:30
investment is reduced Flight of capital technology00:37:34
if00:37:36
the building of the East is being driven by tanks from the Second00:37:40
World War00:37:41
Tell me, does society share this00:37:45
optimism that00:37:47
Putin demonstrates every time when he says that00:37:49
more than half of humanity is with us before00:37:51
China plus India this is already 2.8 billion00:37:54
or Mishustin, who the day before, speaking00:37:57
before the Duma in his report,00:38:00
showed00:38:02
such optimism that he demonstrates some kind of unreliable00:38:06
strength. What does00:38:09
today's ideas of a Russian look like about00:38:12
tomorrow and the horizon of his00:38:15
planning because it is clear that the00:38:17
state00:38:18
everyone lives in some kind of private life00:38:20
and tries to build it in accordance with00:38:24
what is available and obviously Yes, he has00:38:28
some internal resources in the stash, so this is00:38:32
what the Russian thinks now00:38:35
about what his tomorrow will be like,00:38:39
again I think a very small part is00:38:43
really just these 20 percent 2000:38:47
30 percent maximum in general The00:38:51
planning horizon has been reduced to00:38:54
two months,00:38:58
which the average family has in order to00:39:03
live with it so much accumulation so much00:39:07
savings there00:39:12
are more there are 10 percent of the population the00:39:17
top00:39:20
large savings and00:39:23
it binds its future namely00:39:27
preservation in any way the preservation of the00:39:30
current regime00:39:32
is one00:39:34
one Planning calculation horizon one00:39:38
strategy of rationality but the bulk00:39:45
of our questions is to answer I don’t know00:39:48
what will happen in the near world for two months00:39:51
what will happen to me people are very alarmed00:39:55
in this sense This is a completely different00:39:57
Horizon of existence people are worried about the00:40:02
deterioration of medical care00:40:05
the threat of unemployment not to mention the00:40:10
consequences of their own war00:40:12
of mobilization and so on, therefore00:40:17
there is no future Well, or00:40:19
if we talk about the actual country, then00:40:22
this is roughly00:40:23
the hope that it will be no worse.00:40:27
And so on according to the formula, and so on,00:40:30
repetition of what we have today, this is a00:40:33
very important mechanism for adapting to00:40:36
the situation,00:40:38
minor reduction, slow00:40:40
slight reduction in requests,00:40:43
savings on this, which allows us to somehow00:40:46
maintain that way of life, the00:40:48
standard of living that has developed there in00:40:51
recent years, but not00:40:55
this, on the one hand, on the other hand, without the00:40:59
main hope that somehow00:41:01
maybe the situation will improve.00:41:05
And these are also very important things because00:41:11
more than half there, about 50 there, 3 to00:41:17
60 percent say that00:41:21
in a year in five years everything will be the same00:41:24
as today.00:41:27
But somewhere else, about 15-2000:41:30
percent hope that somehow,00:41:33
miraculously,00:41:35
we will live better;00:41:37
young people are more optimistic and look at00:41:40
these are older people00:41:47
[music]00:41:53
declining quality of life00:41:56
Dmitrich Well, the consequences can be00:41:58
not only expressed00:42:01
financially but also in terms of living00:42:05
better. Yes, one cannot ignore the factor of00:42:09
mental well-being when they say00:42:11
answering the question about how the00:42:14
military confrontation affected their lives00:42:16
Many say a deterioration in mental00:42:19
well-being. But in general, society00:42:21
considers00:42:23
its peace of mind, let’s say, as00:42:26
some value or is it a peripheral00:42:30
thing that is disturbing00:42:33
insofar as they00:42:35
prefer not to talk about it,00:42:38
but00:42:40
psychology, of course, is00:42:52
in illusion and in hope,00:42:56
so there is uncertainty here,00:43:06
irritation of the fact00:43:16
that00:43:20
being it will be better00:43:25
this is the most stable material of00:43:29
social construction in repressive00:43:31
regimes,00:43:33
firstly, the00:43:34
very own insecurity, lack of00:43:38
security, anxiety,00:43:40
complexes or sentiment, they00:43:43
are transferred to the government,00:43:50
hopes are transferred to it and, accordingly,00:43:53
this creates conditions for stability00:43:59
if we identify the dominant00:44:03
phobia that contributes to00:44:07
this the paternalistic logic00:44:09
was self-reproducing, this is the00:44:12
fear, first of all, of00:44:14
physical survival, the preservation of the family00:44:18
or something higher, and here is a whole00:44:22
complex, a conglomerate, a00:44:24
whole complex, this is the lack of00:44:27
trust,00:44:28
constitutional trust,00:44:31
fear of violence from the police, fear of00:44:35
being deceived, this feeling of00:44:38
helplessness in life because a person00:44:42
comes00:44:43
to the hospital and they expect that the doctors00:44:55
will treat him like candles, so this is the best thing, well,00:44:58
what do you want?00:45:01
You are 60 years old00:45:04
and have been growing your problems for so long and you00:45:08
want this to be solved at once, there are no00:45:10
such medicines, and so on and so forth,00:45:14
this is the expectation of00:45:17
eternal such rudeness, what is00:45:20
best described by Zhvanetsky, generally00:45:22
speaking If we talk about00:45:25
sociology, then we00:45:28
don’t have a better sociologist like this at the micro level, he00:45:31
brilliantly00:45:33
understands all these mechanisms of00:45:37
conformism, subordination of your thoughts and00:45:40
so on, this is00:45:42
anxiety, insecurity, it00:45:46
is the basis for00:45:50
transfer As psychoanalysts say, the00:45:54
figure is the embodiment of strength and protection, that is,00:45:58
well, power doesn’t have to fall on00:46:02
Putin. Putin here is simply the00:46:04
personification of the state of such an00:46:06
omnipotent paternalistic state.00:46:10
But this is precisely what is connected with the increase in the00:46:15
authority and popularity of Putin, which00:46:19
we see precisely in the conditions of increasing00:46:22
anxiety, fear of the consequences of war,00:46:26
we have 15 minutes remaining00:46:29
questions I I’ll put it more locally, let’s say,00:46:33
look00:46:36
if there is any fresh data on how00:46:41
Russians perceive this obviously00:46:43
occurring Asian turn, which is more00:46:47
dense, much more dense, they00:46:50
would probably be called00:46:52
close contacts with Beijing against the backdrop of00:46:55
Xi Jinping’s visit,00:46:58
but again this is not nothing something new, this00:47:02
fits into a trend that in the last00:47:06
few years the00:47:09
number of friendly countries has sharply00:47:12
decreased and remains there this is00:47:16
Belarus China Kazakhstan fell out it was00:47:19
this India and so on this00:47:24
is perceived as with approval all this00:47:28
foreign political rhetoric and00:47:32
hopes that it will help00:47:34
to resist the00:47:36
United States of NATO to the West and so on,00:47:39
this is one of the factors of such consolation,00:47:43
but this is not today, it just hangs just as00:47:48
another reinforcement00:47:55
lists, once again I say lists of00:47:58
friendly countries00:48:00
[music]00:48:01
Belarus and Kazakhstan rank first00:48:06
I looked by country and by numbers about the00:48:09
attitude of Russians towards strange West to the00:48:12
United States of the European Union and saw that00:48:15
they were striving for figures less than 20 Yes,00:48:21
that very fifth part, but With all00:48:25
this,00:48:27
there is also an appeal to international law,00:48:31
which you demonstrate in Medvedev in your00:48:34
frequent telegram posts and the President00:48:36
speaking about this here and there00:48:40
in general, a Russian’s perception of the institutions of00:48:42
international law00:48:44
And by the way, that same warrant from the00:48:48
international criminal court in The Hague00:48:50
that was issued last week,00:48:53
what is it? I understand that maybe there00:48:56
were no fresh questions about the Hague, but latently there00:48:59
is an institution, there is trust in it and,00:49:02
accordingly, it is projected onto itself00:49:04
Orda00:49:06
know 10 years ago,00:49:09
with a rather critical attitude towards the00:49:12
Russian judicial system,00:49:15
this and00:49:17
more negative ones, by the way, with those courts with00:49:21
which people interacted more often, that the00:49:26
lower district courts themselves00:49:31
[music]00:49:32
in Strasbourg00:49:35
acted as absolutely00:49:37
authoritatively the only00:49:41
justice of other hopes, therefore there was no00:49:45
trust in the00:49:48
international court how some00:49:52
ideal justice and law00:49:55
are preserved but00:49:58
were preserved until recently,00:50:02
now I think that it is00:50:06
beginning to erode and00:50:09
especially00:50:11
take into account the continuity of Anti-00:50:15
Western demagoguery propaganda continuous00:50:20
fierce aggressive and continuous00:50:23
nature of the impact,00:50:24
in fact, it’s not that they are being undermined00:50:28
Trust they simply disappear from the horizon00:50:34
Lev Dmitrievich what can we say at the00:50:37
moment about the immigration00:50:40
mood in our country? This is the wave00:50:43
that we observed in March last00:50:45
year, then in September last year, to00:50:48
date. In what phase is00:50:53
it still00:50:56
frozen? I would say the migration00:50:59
mood was an outbreak among the00:51:01
mobilization and at first the war, more precisely, there00:51:04
were two humps of this kind at the beginning of the war, a sharp00:51:08
increase in the00:51:10
readiness to leave and after mobilization00:51:16
in October00:51:20
the desire to leave, after that00:51:23
some calm began,00:51:25
not just calm, but also00:51:29
for those among those who think about this00:51:32
in general00:51:33
[music]00:51:35
there was some00:51:37
sobering up that you can leave but00:51:43
settle down there very difficult Moreover,00:51:46
many countries have indeed introduced00:51:50
restrictions and barriers to entry for Russians,00:51:54
so there are two factors here and the00:52:00
absence of a direct reason for00:52:03
pushing them out of the country, mobilization,00:52:09
talk of mobilization, at least from00:52:12
the top they have stopped, at least I think00:52:15
that00:52:16
hidden mobilization is really going on in00:52:22
such public speeches.00:52:25
still, this is missing, and the second00:52:29
is the difficulties of simply00:52:34
adapting.00:52:38
Central Asia00:52:42
is returning to the00:52:47
escalation of hostilities,00:52:55
yet another one,00:52:59
but in principle,00:53:03
the potential of those leaving In general, it00:53:07
has decreased when they say that if something is00:53:10
fixed, then a certain inevitability will be recorded. But00:53:13
man Will is captivity, not even in a00:53:15
sociological sense, but in what ways -he00:53:20
lives with his existential parameters in hope A Hope00:53:22
increases Yes in the realization that you00:53:25
can influence something, this is how today’s00:53:29
respondents assess the00:53:32
remaining00:53:35
opportunities to actually influence the situation at their disposal00:53:39
or is this from the realm of abstraction00:53:42
today sounds00:53:44
No we can look at the opinions of00:53:50
those people who are critical00:53:57
and, accordingly, they have no opportunity to influence00:54:06
today;00:54:10
only among those who are critical, the00:54:19
dominant idea is that00:54:21
power cannot be influenced; power is sovereign and00:54:24
self-sufficient. Although,00:54:29
again, everything depends on the channel00:54:31
of information, respectively, on the resources of the00:54:34
television audience; the mood of the television audience is00:54:37
calmer, more optimistic and00:54:41
naturally more loyal to the authorities and believes00:54:46
that its opinion00:54:48
They00:54:49
[music] are00:54:51
more likely to be accessible to the authorities and taken into account by the00:54:54
authorities,00:54:57
while00:54:59
opposition-minded groups of the00:55:02
population They00:55:04
understand that they are completely deprived of00:55:07
any opportunities,00:55:10
this is one of the internal factors of such00:55:13
tension of frustration and a feeling of00:55:17
hopelessness situation,00:55:20
that is, it turns out that the conversation about such00:55:22
internal protest activity00:55:25
today is more or less in00:55:27
favor of the poor. And if you pose the question00:55:29
a little more broadly and00:55:32
ask the question: What do surveys say about00:55:35
society’s ability to do anything,00:55:39
not even protest, but whatever?00:55:41
there was no collective reaction today, there is00:55:44
this connective tissue that00:55:46
makes us a society. In the full00:55:49
sense of the word, there00:55:51
is no00:55:55
action, a00:55:57
very strong fear00:56:02
of police actions,00:56:05
on the one hand, has intensified very much recently, it00:56:12
has reached 5th place in the list of such00:56:16
fears of00:56:20
arbitrariness, and has also risen in general00:56:25
speaking over the last two years, these fears of the00:56:32
Soviet era have risen00:56:36
extremely high. We haven’t seen anything like this in 30 years.00:56:41
Forty forty percent are about to be afraid00:56:44
much more widely than people are actually critical00:56:48
of the authorities, this is the00:56:53
second thing that works and feels. This is a00:56:58
thin layer of dissatisfied authorities with the regimes and the00:57:04
policies being pursued are the00:57:07
growing00:57:09
hostility of the majority towards00:57:12
them00:57:14
when We ask How do you feel about00:57:18
those who are leaving00:57:20
mobilization,00:57:23
fleeing the war abroad, then00:57:28
more than 60 percent say extremely00:57:32
negatively00:57:34
to be viewed as traitors As00:57:36
traitors as well as other things00:57:42
migration itself is extremely negative the00:57:45
majority of indifferent people,00:57:48
about 25 percent, perceive it quite calmly only negatively,00:57:56
but for them, flight from war is00:58:01
perceived with strong condemnation, that00:58:05
is, this is a mechanism for00:58:08
confirming one’s own position and, in00:58:12
a sense, a defense mechanism, a00:58:14
state of internal discomfort,00:58:18
bad conscience, fear, this is00:58:21
such a00:58:22
secondary aggression towards to those00:58:25
who speak out who have a different00:58:28
opinion and especially00:58:31
try to evade war from00:58:34
supporting regimes00:58:38
to speak out against the majority.00:58:40
That is, this is not very00:58:42
rationalized, it00:58:46
has been increasing completely in the last month, there00:58:50
are some markers for the resource of00:58:53
calm,00:58:54
not even in relation to the authorities, not in00:58:57
relation to what is happening, not in the sense of00:59:00
normalizing ideas about the war about00:59:03
what is happening and the calmness of such a00:59:06
human that00:59:09
people have at their disposal so that00:59:11
finally it all doesn’t float like00:59:13
red tongues of fire Whatever it is,00:59:17
but markers it will be approximately these00:59:22
answers or moods I don’t climb the palette00:59:26
I don’t understand I I’m just doing00:59:28
my own business, it’s enough for me that it’s00:59:33
my life and that of my family, and00:59:37
then I don’t want to think about not going in and00:59:41
away, I’m not interested in this, it’s such a00:59:44
protective Reflex,00:59:46
building a barrier and controlling the00:59:49
space of some Comfort or00:59:52
calmness there, this is a very common00:59:55
tactic of existence and one of00:59:58
the ways to adapt, generally speaking, to a01:00:00
repressive state, of course, this01:00:04
turns into fragmentation of society, a01:00:07
lack of solidarity01:00:10
in the absence of01:00:12
empathy.01:00:13
What is compassion, sympathy for morality,01:00:18
if you want, But this allows people01:00:22
to exist in their niches completely. In01:00:26
general, I can’t say comfortably, but01:00:30
some Calmness is01:00:32
only01:00:35
isolated from everything unpleasant.01:00:37
I want to listen to nothing more.01:00:39
This is approximately the reaction. The01:00:40
last thing I will ask about is the hope01:00:43
that the paternalistic population associates with Putin.01:00:48
Yes,01:00:51
this prospect of 24 years of eternal01:00:53
Putin,01:00:54
what is in this Hope for the average person from01:00:58
illusion, he rationalizes the fact that this has been01:01:01
unfolding for a01:01:03
quarter of a century and the situation01:01:08
turns out to be more or less in the same place Where01:01:10
it started01:01:13
to come from01:01:23
not that they love him so much01:01:25
but he is perceived as some01:01:29
Guarantor no change unpleasant01:01:32
changes01:01:34
lived for 20 years bad Is it good but01:01:38
lived and in general better than it was in the01:01:42
90s That's about this is logic,01:01:47
that is, the current changes are01:01:49
not perceived as unpleasant, they are not there,01:01:53
it turns out there are01:01:57
filters that do not let through01:02:01
unwanted information, unwanted01:02:03
arguments, people don’t want to think and01:02:07
hear about what may be01:02:10
following politicians01:02:19
conscious semi-unconscious passed01:02:29
ends this year I think01:02:32
new interesting Levada polls will follow01:02:35
center whose scientific director Lev01:02:38
Gudkov today was a guest of the01:02:39
inhale-exhale program Lev Dmitrievich I thank01:02:42
you01:02:43
Thank you goodbye01:02:46
[music]01:02:51
friends this is inhale-exhale My name is01:02:53
Stanislav Kryuchkov today our guest01:02:55
was the scientific director of the Levada Center for01:02:58
sociological service, which01:02:59
enjoys authority in the country and01:03:01
conducts Now they are conducting these surveys that01:03:04
each of us needs to one degree or another,01:03:07
but I need it Stas Kryuchkov I01:03:10
say goodbye to you subscribe to01:03:12
Khodorkovsky Life, leave01:03:15
your comments, share the link to this01:03:18
video of course Take care of yourself Be01:03:20
healthy for now01:03:22
[music]Description:
Лев ГУДКОВ, социолог, научный руководитель «Левада-центра», внесенного властями в РФ список «иноагентов» — гость программы Станислава Крючкова «Вдох-Выдох».О господствующих общественных настроениях, иллюзорности надежд, механизмах адаптации, распаде социальной ткани, отсутствии понимания о завтрашнем дне, конформистской консолидации, нежелании думать, повороте к Китаю, международных правовых институтах, ООН, суде в Гааге, способности к коллективной реакции и солидарности и данных социологии. В пятницу 24 марта в 17-00 на канале @khodorkovskylive Таймкоды: 00:00 Начало. Гость — Лев Гудков 00:55 Выжидание и пессимизм - господствующие социальные настроения 01:36 Динамика отношения к войне 02:20 Отношение к политическому классу 04:00 Нагнетание выдуманной угрозы 05:05 Доступ к информации 06:25 О чем думает молодежь? 07:24 Тон задает консервативное большинство 09-20 Социология действенна, просто у людей исчезли представления о будущем 10:50 Что такое тоталитарный социум? 13:11 Почему продолжает работать телевизор? 18:20 Отношение респондентов к действиям российских сил в Украине 18:50 Патернализм и отождествление себя с государством 19:46 Половина россиян желает прекращения войны. Люди не хотят слышать того, что не соответствует их представлениям 21:00 Нереалистичность переговоров 24:25 Кто такие «университетские попугаи»? 25:30 Что такое социологическое интервью 28:20 Власть уничтожает активное меньшинство 30:20 Контроль за частной жизнью 32:20 Принуждение бюрократии к репрессиям 34:30 Силовики и их роль 36:40 Система лишена страховых механизмов 38:26 Горизонт планирования в два месяца опрокидывает «стабильность» 40:20 Сокращение запросов и новые стандарты жизни 42:30 Тревожность как фоновый режим существования 44:23 Ощущение беспомощности 45:10 Михаил Жванецкий - лучший социолог 46:45 Азиатский поворот и «недружественные страны» 48:50 Гаага и доверие к международным правовым институтам 50:49 Миграционные настроения 52:00 Скрытая мобилизация 53:30 Возможность влияния на ситуацию 55:38 Разорвана социальная ткань. Страх перед возвратом массовых репрессий 57:00 Враждебность большинства к оппонентам и вторичная агрессия 59:00 Жизненная стратегия обывателя 01:01:00 Логика лояльности к Путину 01:02:34 Конец ============================= Телеграм-канал Станислава Крючкова https://t.me/photoplenka ============================= Адвокат Илья НОВИКОВ в программе «ВДОХ-ВЫДОХ»: Гаага, Мариуполь, визит Си Цзинпина, Ройзман и Навальный https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk57MoroDQA ============================ Музыковед Михаил КАЗИНИК в программе «ВДОХ-ВЫДОХ»: История, страх и завтрашний день. Чему учит время? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ej6ZQll08K8 ============================= Киновед Наум КЛЕЙМАН в программе «ВДОХ-ВЫДОХ»: Исторический шанс, оптимизм и позитивная программа жизни https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMWQoI37xz4 ============================= Поэт Томас ВЕНЦЛОВА в программе «ВДОХ-ВЫДОХ»: Империя и провинция, Пастернак, Ахматова, Бродский, США, эмиграция https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ7T-V4dt4Q ============================= Писатель Михаил ВЕЛЛЕР в программе «ВДОХ-ВЫДОХ»: Путин как пустота и что ждет впереди? youtu.be/BeZioFR2b0s ============================= Группа «БЕЛАЯ ГВАРДИЯ» и ЗОЯ ЯЩЕНКО в программе «ВДОХ-ВЫДОХ»: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBWk6lfZfYU ============================= БЕЛКОВСКИЙ: Путин, водка, Медведев, китайский план, Лукашенко, Павловский https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwiHGJN5_a4 ============================= Блог Михаила Ходорковского: https://www.youtube.com/user/khodorkovskyru ============================= Плейлисты: ► Блог Ходорковского: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7kI1pJUZbs&list=PLUpN6Si0hGl4Grv-wza2qAaE322NcoK0c ► Ответы на вопросы: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asGc56bUvs8&list=PLUpN6Si0hGl7VIGZSi0O6vmqGTNKnqb9Y ► Интервью с Ходорковским: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUpN6Si0hGl6NhQa9nhFk3E6bwAgml7yM ► Правозащита: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4WjEvgt0tg&list=PLUpN6Si0hGl7aRDjrl1vICk3jXAjFtNtG Социальные сети: ► Twitter: http://bit.ly/MBK-Twitter ► Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser ► Telegram: https://t.me/khodorkovski ► Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser ► ВКонтакте: http://bit.ly/MBK-VKontakte =============================
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