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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:04
we're coming close to the end of August00:00:07
tomorrow will be the last day of August00:00:09
and of course on the 4th of September00:00:12
it will be three calendrical months00:00:15
since Ukraine began it's00:00:17
counter-offensive or perhaps more00:00:20
properly offensive in Southeastern00:00:23
Ukraine and this offensive has been00:00:27
launched against three different axes00:00:30
the most important the one between one00:00:34
south of orejo00:00:36
towards00:00:38
top Mac00:00:39
and ultimately milotopol they00:00:44
part of the front line the the direction00:00:47
which passes through this hotly00:00:51
contested small village of robotino00:00:54
which as we shall see despite all kinds00:00:58
of claims from Ukraine continues to00:01:00
remain contested00:01:02
and a little further to the east has00:01:06
been fighting in the Premier Salient00:01:09
area there was big battles there00:01:11
eventually the ukrainians were able to00:01:14
push the Russian forces out of the two00:01:16
Villages of stero Mayors Andover00:01:21
in neither case however have the00:01:24
ukrainians been successful in00:01:26
consolidating their control of either00:01:30
these Villages which remain largely00:01:33
though not entirely in the gray Zone and00:01:36
so far Ukraine has failed to advance00:01:40
Beyond these villages on the road to00:01:44
maliupo00:01:46
which is supposedly the final objective00:01:49
of this Ukrainian force and the third00:01:53
Direction the third axis of Advance was00:01:56
of course intended to be around Bachman00:02:00
the town that the Russians call00:02:03
arteomisk which the Russians the Wagner00:02:05
group captured on the 20th of May00:02:08
completed the capture of on the 20th of00:02:10
May00:02:11
Ukraine has been making strenuous00:02:13
attempts to try to capture00:02:17
um or recapture Bahamut or at least to00:02:20
regain ground there and the very rare00:02:23
latest reports suggest that things in00:02:27
the backwood area are going badly for00:02:31
Ukraine and in fact it is the Russians00:02:35
who are taking making the advances in00:02:39
this area as well of course I have no00:02:42
way of independently corroborating all00:02:45
of this but this is what the Russians00:02:48
claim is the military situation and00:02:51
early today00:02:53
we've had some comments from the00:02:57
commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces00:02:59
General cersky00:03:01
the officer who seems to be in overall00:03:04
charge of the fighting their backward00:03:06
and indombas and he's now written00:03:11
frankly somewhat pessimistic00:03:16
description of the overall situation on00:03:20
the Eastern front lines in donbass he00:03:23
says the situation on the Eastern Front00:03:25
remains tense00:03:28
the00:03:29
three areas artiomas you know it's00:03:32
Batman00:03:33
well he would call it back but the00:03:35
Russians call it00:03:38
and krasni Limon he would call it Lima00:03:42
these three areas require special00:03:45
attention and00:03:48
um that these three places00:03:51
it seems as if it's the Russians who00:03:53
hold the initiative in all three I've00:03:57
discussed the fighting in gupians more00:03:59
small to say about that shortly but00:04:03
everywhere else as I said on all of00:04:05
these three places00:04:08
and Limon areas the situation is00:04:11
becoming increasingly difficult for00:04:13
Ukraine now00:04:16
over the course of the last week there00:04:19
have been various claims from Western00:04:23
media Outlets that00:04:26
in the most important axis of Ukraine's00:04:32
offensive the axis south of orejov the00:04:35
one that is supposed to battle through00:04:37
to top Mac and Beyond top Max to Miller00:04:42
topple and thereafter to the Sea of azov00:04:46
supposedly00:04:48
according to a claim from Hana malyar00:04:52
the town The Village I should say the00:04:54
small village of rabotino was finally00:04:58
captured by Ukraine that is what the00:05:02
Western media reports were saying saying00:05:06
based as I said00:05:09
um over the course of the last few days00:05:11
well I said in previous videos that00:05:16
there's strong reasons to doubt this00:05:19
and in fact the accumulation of evidence00:05:22
over the last00:05:24
couple of hours gives00:05:27
further reason to ground to doubt this00:05:30
further00:05:31
firstly I ought to say something about00:05:34
Hannah malyar's own credibility as I00:05:37
understand it she's made a further claim00:05:40
that Russian troops in backwards are00:05:42
trapped that they can't move forward or00:05:46
backward that the ukrainians are00:05:48
continuing to make big advances in that00:05:51
area where we've just seen General00:05:53
cerski he says that the situation is00:05:55
very tense in00:05:58
he doesn't seem to think that the00:06:01
situation is going well for Ukraine in00:06:04
the backwood area at all and in fact00:06:07
Russian reports on the contrary speak of00:06:10
Russian counter attacks and of the00:06:12
Russians steadily improving their00:06:14
positions around Bachmann so already we00:06:18
see that Hannah maliar is not always a00:06:21
reliable or credible Source but in fact00:06:25
there have been many more reports now00:06:27
over the last couple of hours about the00:06:30
fighting in the robotino area00:06:33
south of orejas00:06:36
and the overall story continues to be00:06:40
that the ukrainians have captured some00:06:42
of the buildings in the north of the00:06:45
village00:06:46
the Russians retain their presence in00:06:49
the southern part of the village the00:06:52
central part of the village continues to00:06:55
remain contested and the very latest00:06:59
reports that I've read speak of heavy00:07:02
Russian Artillery and airstrikes on00:07:05
Ukrainian positions to the north to the00:07:08
northern part of this Village and in the00:07:11
forested areas around it where the00:07:14
ukrainians try to concentrate some of00:07:17
their troops apparently they've also00:07:19
been air strikes by the Russian Air00:07:21
Force00:07:22
using Precision guided bombs both on00:07:27
Ukrainian positions in the village and00:07:29
in these forested areas and the reports00:07:32
suggest that it's the ukrainians again00:07:35
are under heavy pressure and that they00:07:38
might even be on the retreat in some00:07:41
places00:07:43
and they were also00:07:46
some claims00:07:48
over the course of yesterday00:07:51
the Russians launched some sort of a00:07:54
counter-attack in the this00:07:57
area to the east of rabotino00:08:02
where the ukrainians have been trying to00:08:04
launch first infantry and then armored00:08:09
forces towards the Surah weekend line00:08:13
um there's been some reports that the00:08:15
Russians have counter-attacked in this00:08:17
area this is the area between robotino00:08:20
and the rather larger Village a verb of00:08:24
also under Russian control further to00:08:27
the east00:08:28
and that the Russians have actually00:08:30
pushed the ukrainians back in this area00:08:33
and have caused the ukrainians to suffer00:08:36
heavy losses in this particular area00:08:40
now00:08:42
the commentator who00:08:46
I only know by the name of big search00:08:48
and who writes extensively on military00:08:51
history has written a vast article on00:08:55
substance00:08:57
about the Ukrainian offensive and his00:09:00
primary focus has been on this area to00:09:04
the South and on the battle00:09:09
aroundino and in this area between00:09:13
robotino and verbose00:09:18
and I have to say it's a very00:09:20
interesting article I don't know00:09:22
anything at all about big surge or his00:09:25
antecedents00:09:27
um I'm not sure whether he has any sort00:09:29
of military background but he does read00:09:31
extensively military history and he00:09:33
writes00:09:35
in an interesting way especially about00:09:39
the fighting that took place in the00:09:41
second world war for example but he's00:09:43
written a long piece about this fight00:09:46
this battle and he's made a number of00:09:48
points00:09:50
he doesn't first of all I should say00:09:53
parenthesis discuss the Ukrainian00:09:57
offensive counter-offensive in the00:09:59
bathmat area at all doesn't seem to be00:10:02
in any way an important murder for him00:10:06
he's he's essentially ignored that he00:10:09
has touched briefly on the Ukrainian00:10:13
attacks in the vernifica Salient area00:10:18
and the fighting around places like uh00:10:21
star of Mayors and Away00:10:27
um rather like the Swedish officer00:10:32
former officer00:10:33
um Michael valderson he is very00:10:37
dismissive of the Ukrainian advance in00:10:40
the ramifica Salient he he makes the00:10:45
point that it's basically an advance00:10:47
along a narrow Winding Road along river00:10:51
valley00:10:53
with the Russians controlling the00:10:56
heights at least to the South00:10:59
making it very very difficult for the00:11:01
ukrainians to advance any great distance00:11:04
along to this River Valley and he's00:11:07
provided by the way a very interesting00:11:09
map00:11:10
of this part of the front line which00:11:14
shows that there are indeed several00:11:15
Villages00:11:17
south of star of Mayors and00:11:21
which the Ukrainian forces would have to00:11:25
capture before they reached the Surah00:11:28
vehicle line in this area and as I said00:11:31
already for the moment they seem to be00:11:33
stuck00:11:34
so anyway he basically writes off this00:11:38
particular00:11:39
[Music]00:11:40
area of Advance he considers it00:11:43
inconsequential he thinks that Ukraine00:11:47
started it essentially as a diversion00:11:50
from the main Advance which was to be00:11:53
from orejov towards top Mac and it's00:11:57
certainly the case that it is in the00:11:59
orejo top Mac robotino area that Ukraine00:12:03
concentrated its heaviest armored00:12:07
formations00:12:08
and He suggests that the reason why00:12:12
Ukraine began to focus more on the00:12:16
fighting in the vremifica Salient area00:12:19
over the last couple of weeks00:12:22
um up to and including the00:12:26
battlesk and00:12:29
genove was because00:12:32
of the failure to make any progress00:12:38
so that it became important to talk00:12:42
about and advance in some part of the00:12:45
front lines and that's why more00:12:48
attention was given to the vremifica00:12:50
Salient and what had become what had00:12:54
started as a diversion for a certain00:12:57
time00:12:59
became the major object the major focus00:13:03
of attention00:13:04
and00:13:07
he said big Sage continues to think that00:13:11
the only way the only place where00:13:13
Ukraine could achieve at least in theory00:13:16
a significant breakthrough one which00:13:19
might00:13:20
conceivably alter the course of the war00:13:23
the main real axis of Ukraine's Advance00:13:27
is in fact in the orechov00:13:31
Mac area and he's providing Maps very00:13:37
interesting maps and he's provided some00:13:40
information about the local topography00:13:43
which I've noticed corresponds a lot00:13:46
with some of the comments that Bernhardt00:13:48
at the moon of Alabama has been making00:13:50
in his last post on the moon of Alabama00:13:54
anyway00:13:56
the point is that robotino00:13:59
is00:14:01
um this Village which as I said Ukraine00:14:03
has been trying to capture for all this00:14:06
time it's not the last place before00:14:12
Ukraine reaches the Surah weekend line00:14:15
it even if the ukrainians finally do00:14:19
manage to consolidate control of00:14:21
rabortino there is another00:14:24
larger settlement than robot in a00:14:27
significantly bigger settlement called00:14:29
Novo broke to the South which the00:14:34
Russians also control00:14:37
that place Ukraine would also need to00:14:40
capture before they would were able to00:14:43
really reach and carry out a proper00:14:46
assault on the Surah vegan line in this00:14:50
area and he's provided a very00:14:53
interesting map00:14:55
which shows the location of rabortino it00:14:59
shows the location of Novel procopiefka00:15:03
some distance to the South00:15:06
and you can see the main belts of the00:15:09
pseudo vegan line somewhere to the south00:15:13
of Nova roccopiefka00:15:18
but he also makes big surge makes and00:15:21
burnheart at the mood of Alabama also00:15:23
makes a further point about the00:15:24
topography which is that robotino00:15:28
Novo broken00:15:30
and verbover lie on what00:15:35
in terms of the step land over which00:15:37
this fighting is taking place00:15:40
constitutes Higher Ground Russian00:15:43
positions are located around Higher00:15:46
Ground and the Ukrainian forces which00:15:50
have advanced00:15:52
between00:15:54
robotino and verbover towards the Surah00:15:58
weekend line in this sort of Bulge are00:16:01
in lower ground00:16:03
so they're not just00:16:04
a salient00:16:06
but they're in a Salient which so long00:16:10
as00:16:14
remain under Russian control00:16:18
is a Salient surrounded on three sides00:16:22
by the Russians who control The High00:16:25
Ground and this has enabled the Russians to00:16:29
Shell Ukrainian forces that find00:16:31
themselves in this bulge or Salient00:16:35
between00:16:39
and to inflict extremely heavy losses on00:16:43
the Ukrainian troops in this particular00:16:45
area and big says in fact comes close to00:16:51
questioning00:16:53
whether00:16:55
a continued Ukrainian presence in this00:16:58
area this Salient this bulge between00:17:02
abortino and variable there is00:17:05
sustainable00:17:07
unless Ukraine is able to capture The00:17:13
High Ground and this apparently is why00:17:17
Ukraine has been focusing on trying to00:17:19
capture00:17:21
and why the Russians have been able to00:17:24
defend it so long the ukrainians in00:17:27
order to reach00:17:28
must attack uphill the Russians control00:17:33
The High Ground they've been able to00:17:35
defend robotino and they have a reason00:17:38
to00:17:39
defendo because whilst arabotino and00:17:43
Novo00:17:44
remain on the Russian control00:17:48
Ukraine not only has to encounters very00:17:51
very heavy losses but cannot00:17:54
realistically hope to push South and00:17:57
carry out an attack00:17:59
in any place in this area against the00:18:02
pseudovicin line00:18:04
so I00:18:06
was doing a explanation of the fighting00:18:08
it's not one that I had fully understood00:18:13
reading Maps as I said many times not00:18:17
something I'm able to do with any degree00:18:19
of skill00:18:20
but it does seem as if as I said some of00:18:23
these places are on higher ground and it00:18:26
does explain00:18:27
both the difficulties Ukraine has had00:18:31
experienced in attacking in these places00:18:33
and why in order to advance at all00:18:37
Ukraine needs ultimately to capture00:18:40
these places now the important thing00:18:44
is that the ukrainians remain stuck they00:18:48
can't so far or so it seems consolidate00:18:51
control of robotino if they do00:18:55
eventually capture00:18:58
there is still a further place to00:19:00
capture which is00:19:08
being closer to the Surah weekend line00:19:12
can be covered even more effectively by00:19:17
Russian Artillery which I presume is00:19:21
heavily entrenched along the Surah00:19:24
weekend line which I suspect will make00:19:27
the capture of Novel Pro00:19:30
cope a bigger place than robotino no00:19:36
easy matter at all for Ukraine00:19:39
and of course given that we're now00:19:42
almost in September with the Autumn00:19:45
Reigns and the Russia perhaps only six00:19:49
weeks away and of course with Ukraine's00:19:53
ammunition shortages00:19:55
probably already having an effect00:19:58
anyway I suspect that it's going to be00:20:02
not just no easy matter but perhaps even00:20:05
a very difficult matter indeed for the00:20:08
ukrainians to continue to push forward00:20:10
here but anyway that's where we are now00:20:14
I did I'm going to add one particular00:20:17
point of my own which is that of course00:20:19
Ukraine00:20:21
has been launching attack after attack00:20:23
trying to capture00:20:27
since the 7th of June the overall00:20:30
Ukrainian offensive in the South began00:20:33
with an attack in the vermifica Salient00:20:36
area on the 4th of June Ukraine then00:20:40
mounted its big armored push towards00:20:43
robotino on the 7th of June it ended00:20:47
disastrously with dozens of Tanks scores00:20:51
of Tanks Western tanks destroyed large00:20:54
numbers of Bradley infantry fighting00:20:57
Vehicles also destroyed00:20:59
Ukraine made a further attack00:21:02
towards robotino in the end of July00:21:05
which ended apparently not just as badly00:21:09
but even more badly even more tanks and00:21:13
armored vehicles were destroyed there's00:21:15
been this last big attack that we've00:21:19
been seeing play out over the last week00:21:22
or so with the troops of the 82nd00:21:25
Airborne Division and the00:21:29
um forces of the maroon tactical group lost00:21:34
remaining Reserve Ukraine had prepared00:21:39
for this offensive at least in the South00:21:41
and00:21:43
unlike it should be said those first two00:21:46
attacks it is the case that Ukraine in00:21:50
this last00:21:51
big last ditch attempt to try to capture00:21:55
a Baltimore does at least appear or it00:21:58
has at least managed to capture a part00:22:01
of it and that might beg a number of00:22:04
questions as to why why would the00:22:05
Russians00:22:07
who were more successful who were00:22:09
successful pushing the ukrainians00:22:11
defeating the ukrainians in this area in00:22:14
June and July why were they not able to00:22:18
defeat the ukrainians as comprehensively00:22:20
in this attack in August as they were in00:22:24
June and July and I'm going to suggest a00:22:26
reason which is that the Defenders of00:22:30
arabotino throughout June and July were00:22:35
drawn from a regular Infantry Regiment00:22:38
which is part of the Russian 58th Army00:22:42
which is the main Army defending the00:22:46
front lines these were regular Russian00:22:48
troops00:22:50
um00:22:51
heavy from a heavy mechanized unit00:22:56
they had been like they had been00:22:59
defending robotino throughout this00:23:02
period they're clearly00:23:04
tough and00:23:06
well-disciplined troops00:23:08
obviously very well commanded and00:23:14
they successfully repelled Ukrainian00:23:17
attacks throughout June and July00:23:19
and the result was that Putin gave this00:23:23
particular regiment he rewarded it by00:23:27
giving it the title of a God's regimen00:23:30
but what has happened inevitably is that00:23:34
the regiment this regiment has suffered00:23:36
losses some casualties00:23:39
the men have become tired and eventually00:23:43
a rotation had to take place now the00:23:46
troops who have replaced this regiment00:23:49
are Russian paratroopers and Russian00:23:52
naval infantry these are some of the00:23:56
best soldiers of the Russian00:24:00
military00:24:01
at least I suspect is well trained and00:24:06
has committed to the battle as the00:24:08
troops who had been defending up to this00:24:12
point but inevitably it would have taken00:24:16
them some time00:24:17
to get an understanding of the00:24:20
topography to familiarize themselves00:24:23
with the nature of the battle here and00:24:28
it does seem to me as if Ukraine was00:24:31
able to take advantage of this00:24:34
Russian troop rotation and that's00:24:37
probably the reason why this latest00:24:40
attack achieved some measure of success00:24:43
but it's only been a very partial00:24:46
success Ukraine has not been able to00:24:49
capture robortino in its entirety00:24:53
and as we have seen as the new the new00:24:59
Defenders the new Russian Defenders of00:25:01
robotino have gradually found their feet00:25:04
gained their bearings00:25:06
they've been able to hold the ukrainians00:25:08
and push them back at least to some00:25:11
extent00:25:12
so00:25:14
time00:25:15
as many as say is running out00:25:18
there's the word at the moment is that00:25:21
though Ukraine continues to try00:25:24
incredibly hard to push forward in the00:25:27
robotino area can you continues to00:25:30
suffer increasing losses00:25:33
that the attacks00:25:37
are beginning perhaps it's not certain00:25:41
this are beginning perhaps to lose some00:25:45
of their00:25:46
Force00:25:49
this is the last Reserve00:25:54
see00:25:56
obstacles the main objects obstacles lie00:25:59
Beyond00:26:01
even as I said if rabotino itself is00:26:04
captured00:26:05
there's still novel Pro novel00:26:09
procopifka The capture still the sort of00:26:12
vegan line00:26:14
lies beyond that00:26:16
so00:26:18
in truth00:26:20
it doesn't seem to me as if00:26:23
there is really now very much Prospect00:26:25
of Ukraine achieving any success in this00:26:30
area which big surge at least00:26:32
and apparently00:26:35
the US and British authorities00:26:39
have insisted is the main area upon00:26:43
which Ukraine should achieve its00:26:45
breakthrough00:26:47
now00:26:48
there's been a somewhat00:26:51
pessimistic discussion of the fighting00:26:56
in this area in the New York Times now I00:26:59
want to stress that this is a um00:27:05
account from The New York Times00:27:08
it's an American it's an American00:27:10
account as I've discussed many times one00:27:13
of the most interesting things about the00:27:15
recent fighting in Ukraine is that it is00:27:20
in fact the American Media which appear00:27:24
to be taking a more pessimistic view now00:27:28
of the course of the war00:27:30
as compared to the British media which00:27:35
still tries hard to find something00:27:38
positive to write or say about Ukraine's00:27:43
war effort00:27:44
but anyway00:27:46
the00:27:48
New York Times as I said previously00:27:51
uh careful00:27:54
in a way that was not true of the00:27:56
British to say not that robotino had00:27:59
been captured by Ukraine but that the00:28:02
ukrainians were reporting or claiming to00:28:06
have captured00:28:10
and then the article went on to say00:28:12
Ukraine's military said on Monday that00:28:15
his forces had retaken the Southern00:28:17
Village of rabotino a tactic tactical00:28:20
victory that underlines the immense00:28:24
challenge kiev's a counter-offensive00:28:27
faces in pushing through deep and dense00:28:31
Russian defenses00:28:34
the Ukrainian council's fancy that began00:28:36
in early June has advanced only a few00:28:40
miles southwards to reach ramotina six00:28:44
miles According to some reports00:28:47
even less according to others in intense00:28:51
fighting with heavy casualties and00:28:53
Equipment losses and a similar distance00:28:56
on another axis to the east that's the00:28:59
one on the vermevkas at Salient the00:29:02
ultimate Target of the thrustino is the00:29:06
city of milotopol now that's not00:29:09
actually true the ultimate Target was00:29:11
supposed to be the Sea of azoff we can00:29:14
already see that even this pessimistic00:29:18
article which now doubts00:29:20
that militarpal can be reached as we'll00:29:23
see in a moment has00:29:27
tacitly admitted00:29:29
that the Sea of azov00:29:31
the original objective is now Beyond00:29:34
Ukraine's reach so to continue the00:29:37
ultimate Target of the00:29:40
thrustino is the city of milotopol about00:29:43
45 miles further south and more layers00:29:48
of Russian defenses lie in the way about00:29:51
15 miles south of rabortino Lies the00:29:54
Russian control city of top Mac a road00:29:57
and rail Hub whose recapture would be00:29:59
strategically significant but satellite00:30:03
images show that to reach top map00:30:06
Ukrainian forces will have to breach two00:30:10
more Russian defensive lines native to00:30:13
trenches dense minefields Earthen00:30:17
Burns and anti-tank barriers00:30:21
and clearly the New York Times is00:30:25
skeptical that that can even be done now00:30:28
I said that the British media likes to00:30:30
have an opt to take an optimistic View00:30:34
I read in the Daily Telegraph yesterday00:30:38
that there are parts of the Surah vegan00:30:40
line in this particular area which are00:30:43
said to be in somewhat bad condition00:30:46
somebody looking at satellite photos00:30:49
claims that they've been seeing signs of00:30:52
damage charring and things like that and00:30:54
some of the tank traps I can't imagine00:30:57
how that could be possible how you could00:31:00
possibly see that and I've seen no other00:31:03
Source claim this00:31:06
and of course there's been these reports00:31:09
in Britain capturing robortino is the00:31:12
hardest part of the battle the00:31:16
densest minefields are around00:31:20
the surovicin line itself will not be00:31:23
defended properly00:31:26
um says makes it seems to me the obvious00:31:31
repost which is why would the Russians00:31:33
spend time and effort throughout the00:31:36
spring with the winter and spring and00:31:38
summer00:31:39
building up the suit of Beacon line to00:31:42
the extent that they have if they had00:31:45
not intended to defend it there is no00:31:48
evidence that other parts of the pseudo00:31:51
vegan line are not protected by dense by00:31:54
minefields at least as dense as those00:31:57
around itself00:32:01
and in fact someone else00:32:04
um who has been writing about Russian00:32:07
Field fortifications00:32:09
Brady Afric who has an interesting um00:32:16
Place writing about the website writing00:32:19
about these things based upon satellite00:32:21
photos he has been pointing out for some00:32:24
time00:32:25
that in fact00:32:27
the Russians have been continuing to00:32:31
strengthen their defenses along the00:32:33
Southern and Eastern front lines in00:32:36
other words the complex of defenses that00:32:39
not only make up the pseudovic in line00:32:41
but even areas even further to the south00:32:43
of the zura vegan line that they have00:32:46
been continuing to work on these00:32:48
defenses and have continued to improve00:32:51
them and make them even more dense00:32:54
throughout the spring and summer and I00:32:57
would have thought that not not only00:32:58
confirms the Russian intention of00:33:01
Defending all of these layers of Defense00:33:05
but makes it absolutely a certainty that00:33:09
the minefields that are being planted00:33:11
around these heavy defensive00:33:15
fortifications are at least as dense as00:33:19
the ones that have caused the ukrainians00:33:21
so much trouble around00:33:25
now bear in mind that the Ukrainian00:33:29
forces00:33:31
which00:33:36
iska were eventually captured we then00:33:40
have to break through00:33:42
the vegan line through all of these00:33:45
layers of defenses to all these00:33:47
minefields are no longer as strong as00:33:51
the Ukrainian forces that launched that00:33:54
offensive back in June they've been very00:33:57
heavy losses everybody admits this00:34:00
including the Western media there may be00:34:03
arguments about how heavy these losses00:34:06
have been but they are unquestionably00:34:09
extremely heavy there's also been00:34:13
admissions coming out of Ukraine00:34:17
that Ukraine's Medical Services its00:34:21
medical evacuations of wounded soldiers00:34:24
have not been up to full standard00:34:29
and that this has resulted in even more00:34:31
losses well that may be true but of00:34:35
course it's difficult to quantify this00:34:37
and I'm not going to spend more time00:34:39
discussing it00:34:41
but beyond that00:34:43
there's also the very heavy losses in00:34:47
equipment and there's recently00:34:51
been a study of equipment losses around00:34:54
a robot you know this small village of00:34:57
480 people the first place Ukraine00:35:01
needed to capture before it Advanced all00:35:04
the way to top Mac and which as I said00:35:07
almost three months into the offensive00:35:10
Ukraine can't00:35:14
actually00:35:15
properly claimed to have captured00:35:18
despite what Hannah maliar says anyway00:35:21
somebody has looked at the satellite00:35:24
pictures over the last couple of days00:35:26
done apparently a very rigorous count of00:35:30
the destroyed armored vehicles Ukrainian00:35:33
armored vehicles00:35:34
literally the landscape around00:35:39
and this person has counted 120 armored00:35:42
vehicles leopard twos Bradley's Strikers00:35:46
other vehicles as well00:35:49
and00:35:50
apparently this has been an attempt to00:35:53
apply particular rigor00:35:56
to these the counting of these losses00:36:00
and it's acknowledged that this is00:36:03
almost certainly an underestimate and by00:36:06
the way I suspect00:36:08
that it probably only00:36:12
shows00:36:14
vehicles that have been damaged or00:36:17
destroyed over the last couple of weeks00:36:19
because I suspect that by now00:36:23
a heavy proportion of the vehicles00:36:26
destroyed in this area in the June and00:36:29
July fighting will have been removed by00:36:32
one side or the other00:36:34
so very heavy equipment losses very00:36:37
heavy Manpower losses00:36:40
um00:36:42
reductions in the number of artillery00:36:45
shells that00:36:47
we've talked about many times Ukraine00:36:49
has only a finite number of artillery00:36:52
shells that it can launch00:36:56
how is Ukraine going to be able to00:36:59
sustain00:37:01
it's offensive00:37:03
in the light of all of these losses in00:37:06
the light of the fact that all of its00:37:08
reserves have been used up00:37:12
even if rabotino00:37:15
and novoprocopeska having they are00:37:19
indeed eventually captured how is it00:37:22
going to break through00:37:25
the sort of weak in line00:37:27
past the further00:37:30
defensive lines to the south of it the00:37:33
mine feels all of these things capture00:37:37
top Mac itself heavily fortified00:37:40
march on to militarpal00:37:43
well big search very properly says that00:37:48
war can throw up unexpected outcomes00:37:52
there's always factors of luck and00:37:56
chance which can enter in also00:38:00
military Brilliance on the part of one00:38:03
side00:38:04
military incompetence upon the side of00:38:07
the other00:38:09
these factors can never be completely00:38:11
discounted00:38:13
the might something like that might00:38:15
possibly happen00:38:18
but it seems to me that the chances of00:38:21
them doing so are now rapidly running00:38:24
out00:38:25
and I would add that as a further point00:38:28
with crime balletic has also made in his00:38:31
most recent video which is that even if00:38:34
Ukraine does manage some breakthroughs00:38:36
in some places00:38:38
there must be a question now00:38:40
about the extent to which with its00:38:44
forces now so badly depleted Ukraine00:38:48
would be able to retain control of00:38:51
whatever territory it captured in the00:38:54
face of What would most likely be00:38:56
powerful Russian counter-attacks00:39:00
there we are00:39:03
there we are as if we're now at the end00:39:05
of August00:39:07
I said that I thought August the end of00:39:11
August is probably the time00:39:15
when we will start to see this Ukrainian00:39:18
offensive begin to have a way00:39:23
and I think we're probably very close to00:39:26
that point00:39:28
and00:39:30
it's clear00:39:32
that for the moment at least Ukraine has00:39:35
only scratched00:39:37
the Russian defensive lines it is not00:39:41
even properly speaking dented them00:39:44
and it is looking increasingly unlikely00:39:47
that it will manage to do so00:39:51
anyway that's what I'm going to say00:39:54
about Ukraine's offensive00:39:57
the big00:40:00
mystery the big unspoken question as00:40:03
I've discussed many times is what the00:40:05
Russians are planning in the North00:40:08
and be more reports about the situation00:40:12
around cook piance not always very00:40:15
difficult not always very easy sorry to00:40:17
understand00:40:19
but certainly the Russians do seem to be00:40:22
slowly incrementally relentlessly00:40:26
pushing closer to the edges of kupiansk00:40:30
and as I said I've discussed Guardian00:40:32
piece which spoke about sort of panic or00:40:36
these all panic but dismay on the part00:40:40
of the ukrainians that are based in00:40:45
um of the fact that the Russians have00:40:47
returned there that this was unexpected00:40:52
um I should say that there was a report00:40:54
that I read yesterday but this was a00:40:57
Russian report and I can't speak of its00:40:59
accuracy00:41:00
that despite Ukrainian attempts to00:41:03
launch counter-attacks in this area and00:41:06
despite intense resistance by some00:41:09
Ukrainian units00:41:12
overall Ukrainian defenses in kupiansk00:41:17
remain00:41:18
somewhat ragged00:41:22
and00:41:24
weak00:41:25
that Ukrainian formations around00:41:28
kupiansk00:41:30
are00:41:32
severely under strength00:41:34
they are00:41:36
units that's basically have been sent to00:41:40
the rear to rest00:41:42
because of the fighting that they'd been00:41:45
engaged in up to this point00:41:47
some of these soldiers in these units00:41:50
are experienced and motivated but00:41:53
they're also very tired00:41:55
and that the amount of equipment that00:41:59
the ukrainians have is not extensive00:42:02
and that00:42:04
again the suggestion is that if the00:42:06
Russians were to carry out at this point00:42:09
a really big concerted push00:42:12
towards kupiansk there would be little00:42:15
to stop them in practice if they wanted00:42:18
to at least capture Eastern cupcakes and00:42:21
to reach the Oscar River00:42:23
s begs the question of why in that case00:42:27
are the Russians taking their time and I00:42:29
would suggest that this is exactly what00:42:31
the Russians do00:42:32
that they do always act incrementally00:42:36
and methodically in their offensives00:42:40
but it also00:42:42
leads00:42:44
to further questions about whether of00:42:47
course00:42:48
the Russian plans for coupons are more00:42:51
complex than we know00:42:54
and whether perhaps it really is the00:42:57
case that the Russians rather than00:42:59
storming through kupiansk as it seems00:43:02
they might be able to do00:43:04
aren't trying to use kupiansk again as a00:43:09
bait drawing Ukrainian00:43:12
reinforcements00:43:14
and hammering them there00:43:16
with the00:43:19
Superior forces that the Russians are00:43:22
able to deploy in this particular area00:43:26
in other words00:43:28
repeating the00:43:30
style of fighting that the Russians used00:43:33
in the fighting in Bachmann00:43:36
well we'll just have to wait and see00:43:39
but regardless going back to what00:43:42
general circuit said the Ukrainian00:43:45
Ground Forces Commander he clearly is00:43:48
worried about the situation in kupiansk00:43:50
he talks about it being tense about it00:43:53
needing more attention he talks the same00:43:57
way about the situation in backwards and00:44:00
in the liman area00:44:01
and rumors of a big Russian offensive in00:44:07
this area continue to circulate and00:44:10
there's been more talk about00:44:13
large concentrations of Russian troops00:44:16
now concentrating on the northern part00:44:20
of Ukraine's border00:44:22
and rumors that some kind of Advance not00:44:25
just towards kupiansk by the forces that00:44:28
are already there but across the border00:44:31
towards places like Sumi and chernigov00:44:35
and conceivably even Kharkov might be on00:44:38
the cards as well well I'm not able as00:44:42
I've discussed many times to discuss00:44:45
Russia's plans00:44:47
but anyway that's the situation00:44:52
the Russians have successfully parried00:44:56
up to this point Ukraine's offensive00:44:59
this offensive that had been built up00:45:02
and spoken about for so long00:45:05
Ukraine has suffered very heavy further00:45:09
attrition trying to conduct this00:45:12
offensive00:45:13
they're not able to call the offensive00:45:16
off because they're Western00:45:18
sponsors won't let them so they must00:45:22
continue to throw men in machines00:45:24
against the Russian 45 lines despite the00:45:28
heavy losses that they're experiencing00:45:31
and in the meantime this tantalizing00:45:35
build up by the Russians in the north00:45:38
continues and has people like General00:45:41
sirski and I suspect his rival General00:45:45
Solutions increasingly worried00:45:48
now00:45:49
even as the offensive the Ukrainian00:45:52
offensive spartas Ukraine has been00:45:55
resorting to more of what I would call00:45:57
James Bond tactics and we've been seeing00:46:01
an enormous amount of that over the00:46:03
course of the night last night00:46:06
Ukraine launched multiple drone attacks00:46:09
against lots of different locations00:46:11
across Russia00:46:14
and there were some rather mysterious00:46:18
incidents involving Ukrainian00:46:23
Special Forces troops in speed boats00:46:26
trying to maneuver around the Black Sea00:46:29
and according to the Russian defense00:46:31
Ministry being00:46:33
um00:46:34
destroyed these speed boats being00:46:36
destroyed by Russian aircraft there were00:46:39
several incidents of that nature one00:46:41
wonders exactly where those speed boats00:46:44
were heading most probably and00:46:46
presumably Crimea00:46:48
perhaps ultimately the Kirch Bridge00:46:52
who's to say but anyway we've been00:46:54
seeing more of that kind of thing00:46:58
which to my mind00:47:00
once more00:47:02
speaks of a properly good use of one00:47:08
presumes00:47:09
motivated and expensively trained00:47:13
Special Forces soldiers but anyway00:47:16
that's been the pattern of what Ukraine00:47:18
has been doing through much of the war00:47:21
and00:47:23
what about these drone attacks well one00:47:27
drone attack does seem to have hit00:47:29
targets and that's one that was launched00:47:32
against an Airfield near to the Russian00:47:35
town of scoff in Northern Russia00:47:38
Northwestern Russia00:47:40
now there have been some garbled reports00:47:43
about this there was apparently a claim00:47:49
by the Russian news agency Tas the00:47:52
official Russian news agency tasked that00:47:54
said that four Illusions 76 Transport00:47:58
Aircraft had been hit and destroyed00:48:03
over the course of this drone attack on00:48:05
the Airfield in scoff I've never found00:48:09
an English language version of this00:48:12
report on Tass though I'm sure that00:48:14
there was such a report it's just that I00:48:17
haven't found it it seems the task00:48:19
revised its report later it's a it seems00:48:23
to suggesting that some planes were00:48:26
indeed damaged00:48:29
and that at least two illusion 76 planes00:48:33
these are transport planes00:48:36
have caught fire00:48:38
and there was a report about00:48:40
firefighters being deployed to the00:48:42
Airfield in scoff to put the fires out00:48:46
now there's a number of things to say00:48:49
here which is that00:48:51
scoff00:48:53
is an Airfield00:48:55
heavily connected with the 76th guards00:49:00
Airborne Division of the Russian Armed00:49:02
Forces this is an elite paratroop00:49:05
division00:49:06
and as I understand it has been one of00:49:09
the divisions that has been well00:49:10
certainly has been one of the most00:49:12
important divisions of the Russian00:49:14
Airborne forces participating in the00:49:17
attack in the war rather in Ukraine00:49:22
but of course00:49:24
Visa Transport Aircraft illusion 7600:49:27
Transport Aircraft of which Russia by00:49:30
the way has larger numbers00:49:33
they're not bombers00:49:34
they're not fighter aircraft00:49:37
isn't entirely seem clear00:49:40
what Ukraine is hoping to achieve00:49:44
by00:49:46
attacking00:49:48
and trying to destroy these particular00:49:51
aircraft00:49:53
obviously this00:49:55
you know the pr effect00:49:58
but00:50:01
as I said these are not Fighters or00:50:03
bombers they're not launching missiles00:50:06
or bombs dropping bombs on Ukraine00:50:10
in fact00:50:12
illusion 7600:50:16
transports have hardly been used by the00:50:20
Russians in the war in Ukraine for many00:50:24
months now they were used to some extent00:50:26
right at the beginning of the war00:50:29
in places like the00:50:32
capture early in the war of the Gospel00:50:36
Mill air base near Kiev00:50:39
but they've not been used to any extent00:50:41
recently00:50:43
and I have to say00:50:45
I did wonder about whether00:50:48
putting aside the pr effect00:50:51
there weren't perhaps two other reasons00:50:54
firstly the the Russians have been00:50:58
overall increasingly successful00:51:01
empowering these drone attacks these00:51:04
Ukrainian drone attacks00:51:06
it's important to say last night00:51:09
witnessed the biggest single drone00:51:12
attack so far conducted by Ukraine00:51:15
against at least six locations across00:51:18
Russia Western Russia00:51:21
the only one that appears to have00:51:23
achieved any significant success or00:51:26
indeed any success at all was the one00:51:28
against this base in scoff00:51:32
all of the other drone attacks appear to00:51:35
have been unsuccessful00:51:37
and could it be00:51:40
that the reason that scoff was attacked00:51:43
is because00:51:45
as it's only a base for transport00:51:49
aircraft the Russians have not yet00:51:53
hardened it with defenses and it was00:51:57
therefore seen by Ukraine as something00:52:00
of a soft target00:52:02
or perhaps there's another reason Maybe00:52:06
the base in scoff was attacked00:52:11
because the ukrainians are worried that00:52:15
it's going to play some kind of a role00:52:17
in the big Russian Autumn or winter00:52:22
offensive which might be00:52:25
in the works00:52:28
Maybe00:52:29
the paratroopers at the 76th Airborne00:52:33
guards division are going to be00:52:35
redeployed from the front lines at some00:52:37
point rested and re-equipped this is00:52:40
when the00:52:41
Ukrainian offensive has run its course00:52:44
and maybe they will be back in the air00:52:47
again and perhaps as part of some sort00:52:51
of Russian offensive they will be00:52:54
conducting air drops or perhaps that's00:52:56
what the ukrainians are worried about00:52:59
I'm not able to say not something I can00:53:02
comment upon00:53:03
conceivably it could just be as I said00:53:10
an attempt to strike a blow at this00:53:13
division00:53:15
near its key base00:53:19
or perhaps for some other reason that00:53:22
you know I can't fathom00:53:24
but anyway the important thing to say is00:53:27
that these are James Bond type attacks00:53:30
they00:53:31
enable00:53:33
parts of the western media the British00:53:36
media especially which are addicted to00:53:38
this kind of thing after all James Bond00:53:41
is a British fictional hero they're able00:53:44
to write and talk and discuss these00:53:46
things and speak about them and this is00:53:49
something that they can talk about far00:53:51
better talk about that the Grim failure00:53:54
of the offensive00:53:57
or the Gathering00:54:00
storm that is00:54:03
developing around kupiansk talk instead00:54:07
about these Ukrainian attacks00:54:11
deep inside Russia with these drones00:54:14
they might not be achieving anything00:54:15
much00:54:17
they might not be disrupting Russia's00:54:20
Logistics but you know you can talk00:54:23
about how Ukraine can launch strikes in00:54:26
all kinds of places across Russia00:54:28
pretend that this is somehow equivalent00:54:30
to the big Russian drone and missile00:54:35
strikes that are continuously taking00:54:37
place now pretend to yourself that this00:54:41
is something important00:54:43
and the British are running with that00:54:47
and perhaps ukrainians as well I don't00:54:51
think that the Russians00:54:52
are00:54:54
going to be phased in any way by any of00:54:58
this00:54:59
and I can't imagine that anybody00:55:02
in the Pentagon is especially impressed00:55:06
either00:55:08
it Remains the case00:55:10
that there's been some time now00:55:13
since Ukraine has launched missile00:55:16
strikes with its Storm Shadow and Scout00:55:19
missiles00:55:20
and the word is that Ukraine has not00:55:23
only used up a large part of that00:55:27
stockpile of these missiles but that the00:55:31
far more powerful Russian00:55:34
drone and missile strikes and Ukraine00:55:38
that take place every night00:55:41
have destroyed00:55:43
the ammunition dumps where00:55:46
what was left of the stockpile of these00:55:50
storm shadows and scalps00:55:52
scalp missiles was located and that that00:55:56
is why Ukraine is now out of these00:55:58
things and that is why we're seeing00:56:00
fewer attacks by them anyway00:56:06
that brings me to the next point which00:56:08
is that even as the British media is00:56:11
focusing on these00:56:13
pin prick00:56:15
Ukrainian drone attacks the Russians for00:56:19
their part were engaged in one of their00:56:21
much more powerful far more effective00:56:24
drone and missile attacks across Ukraine00:56:28
and again we can't say very much about00:56:32
the details of these attacks but it00:56:34
seems that Kiev was once more a Target00:56:38
as were the Black Sea ports Odessa00:56:41
nikolaev and the others but that mostly00:56:45
these attacks now continue to be focused00:56:48
against Ukraine's industrial00:56:51
infrastructure its ammunition dumps its00:56:55
military00:56:56
its military bases that kind of thing00:57:00
and there is no equivalence00:57:02
between the air offensive that Ukraine00:57:05
is trying to launch against Russia and00:57:08
the Russian air offensive against00:57:10
Ukraine00:57:12
no one who follows this War and who00:57:16
considers and studies00:57:18
the tactics used by each side and above00:57:22
all the weapons used by each side would00:57:26
succumb to that fantasy00:57:30
now that's where we are at the moment in00:57:35
the wall in Ukraine the war00:57:39
this00:57:40
offensive Ukraine was intending to00:57:44
launch which was supposed to achieve a00:57:47
decisive outcome00:57:49
going back to that article by big search00:57:52
it ended up00:57:55
becoming another part00:57:57
of the attrition that the Russians have00:58:00
been applying against Ukraine ever since00:58:04
the summer of 202200:58:08
and we can see how00:58:12
it's playing out that way00:58:15
the offensive the Ukrainian offensive so00:58:19
far has not only00:58:22
been a failure in its own terms00:58:26
but it has ended up working00:58:32
consistently in a way that the Russians00:58:35
would want00:58:38
to accelerate the attrition that they're00:58:41
conducting against Ukraine00:58:44
and we've now had another package of00:58:48
American aid for Ukraine00:58:50
250 million dollars this is from what's00:58:55
supposedly left00:58:57
of the original American Financial00:58:59
package which is to be frank00:59:03
um exhausted months ago but you know00:59:06
through all sorts of complex accounting00:59:08
mechanisms the bind Administration has00:59:12
been able to prolong it00:59:13
but it's striking00:59:16
that00:59:18
how little in terms of new equipment00:59:23
the United States is able to supply so00:59:25
more High Mars Rockets00:59:28
some more 155 millimeter shells but00:59:31
we're told that the United States is out00:59:34
of those no more cluster Munitions00:59:37
perhaps The Well of those is now00:59:41
exhausted as well and interestingly more00:59:44
105 millimeter shells and there's been00:59:48
suggestions00:59:50
that as you the the West finds it00:59:53
increasingly difficult to run up to00:59:56
provide Ukraine with 155 millimeter01:00:00
shells01:00:01
it's going to have to01:00:04
um01:00:05
substitute with 105 millimeter shells01:00:09
lighter shells from earlier in the Cold01:00:12
War from the 1950s many of them uh01:00:16
for artillery designed in the 1950s uh01:00:20
older calibers01:00:22
lighter cannabis01:00:24
certainly calibers that are not01:00:28
remotely01:00:30
up to combating01:00:33
the much more powerful guns and01:00:35
artillery that the Russians can deploy01:00:38
and on that door pick01:00:41
it turns out that the Swiss government01:00:44
is now has now impounded01:00:48
100 of the leopard one tanks the Germany01:00:51
was intending to transfer to Ukraine I'm01:00:55
starting to get the sense that the Swiss01:00:57
authorities are now becoming worried01:00:59
someone belatedly that Russia is likely01:01:02
to win this war and that Switzerland's01:01:09
perhaps overtly open support for Ukraine01:01:13
has jeopardized01:01:16
the fiction of Swiss neutrality as far01:01:21
as the Russians are concerned and that01:01:23
they're now trying to retrieve that01:01:26
situation at least to something to some01:01:28
extent01:01:29
but anyway there we are01:01:32
um it does seem01:01:34
as if01:01:37
it really is the case that the big01:01:39
weapons applies to Ukraine01:01:42
are almost ended01:01:45
so I discussed various01:01:48
attempts to set up some diplomatic01:01:51
initiative we've heard less of that01:01:53
recently01:01:55
but the situation on the battlefronts01:01:58
remains01:02:00
as it has been01:02:02
ever since the end of the Ukrainian01:02:06
offensives of last Autumn and exhausting01:02:10
war of attrition01:02:12
one in which as general surveykin the01:02:17
Russian general who was for a Time the01:02:21
commander-in-chief of the Russian forces01:02:23
in this war as sort of he can said back01:02:25
in October01:02:27
is grinding down Ukraine01:02:30
every week every day01:02:34
more of that is happening01:02:38
and the ukrainians01:02:39
are starting to sense this but are01:02:42
increasingly sensing this and uh01:02:46
increasingly worried as of course their01:02:49
Western sponsors also are01:02:52
anyway that's my discussion of the01:02:56
situation on the battlefields01:02:58
up to today there's been some further01:03:01
news on various fronts the British01:03:04
foreign minister James Kelly cleverley01:03:06
is now in Beijing controversial visit in01:03:09
London01:03:10
um criticized by some who are Keen01:03:14
for Britain to fully commit to the01:03:18
campaign against China that has been01:03:22
launched by some people in the United01:03:24
States01:03:25
note that these people weren't01:03:28
complaining when Tony blinken went to01:03:30
Beijing a few weeks ago but they're very01:03:32
upset that James cleverly is there but01:03:35
anyway cleverly is there he's meeting01:03:37
Chinese officials he's talking about the01:03:39
importance of keeping doors open to01:03:42
China the reality is that the situation01:03:45
between China and the West continues to01:03:48
deteriorate01:03:50
Raymondo the U.S command Commerce01:03:53
Secretary is saying that U.S businesses01:03:57
U.S companies are telling her that in01:04:01
China has become uninvestable I suspect01:04:05
that is nonsense I suspect that is again01:04:08
the U.S government in effect01:04:12
trying to pass off its pressure on U.S01:04:16
companies01:04:17
to disinvest from China as01:04:21
a demand from U.S companies that are01:04:26
rather claims from U.S companies that01:04:28
further investment in China is01:04:30
impossible the Chinese of course are01:04:32
picking up on all of this they're01:04:35
drawing their own conclusions it seems01:04:37
to me that the battle lines between01:04:40
China and the United States are01:04:42
hardening01:04:44
that attempt that was made a few weeks01:04:47
ago with Tony blinken's visit to try to01:04:51
ease tensions between Washington and01:04:54
Beijing that seems to have ended the01:04:57
president again President Lincoln was01:05:00
President Biden was not01:05:02
ever really converted to that plan and01:05:07
it's all unraveled in just a few weeks01:05:11
and01:05:13
one in the meantime is heading towards01:05:15
Moscow we're told that there's going to01:05:17
be major agreements of a variety of01:05:19
issues agreed between these two01:05:21
presidents there's going to be a big01:05:23
Summit meeting01:05:25
as I've already said I think the01:05:27
Russians are planning to cut erdogan01:05:30
into the grain deal in some form not the01:05:33
grain deal the Russian grain export01:05:35
trade in some ways01:05:38
I think that we will be seeing much more01:05:42
substantive agreements coming out of01:05:44
erdogan's visits to Moscow then we saw01:05:47
out of erdogan's various dealings with01:05:50
the West01:05:52
he tried again to improve his positions01:05:55
with the Western Powers after his01:05:58
elections he's held out for the f-16s01:06:01
he's held out for the IMF loans they01:06:04
haven't really come his way and he now01:06:07
understands once more that ultimately it01:06:10
is with the Russians and in the end with01:06:13
the Chinese the to which to whom he must01:06:16
turn the other being used this morning01:06:19
and news which I can only touch on01:06:22
briefly01:06:24
because I am not very familiar with this01:06:27
country is about the fact that there's01:06:30
been another military coup in Africa01:06:33
this time in Gabon01:06:37
now Gabon is a another01:06:41
former French colony in Africa01:06:44
it is located in central Africa it's not01:06:48
part of West Africa so this is this01:06:51
should not be lumped together too01:06:53
quickly with the coup in Nigeria the01:06:56
recent coup in Niger01:06:58
and it's also the case that Gabon01:07:04
is not a member of ecowas so it's01:07:06
important to stress that we're talking01:07:08
about a completely different part of01:07:09
Africa but it is a form of French Colony01:07:13
now I understand that the president who01:07:16
has just been overthrown who I01:07:19
understand his name is President Bongo01:07:21
he he has had some rather difficult01:07:24
relations with the French he's not01:07:26
always been entirely on good terms with01:07:29
them01:07:30
the French have apparently launched some01:07:33
fraud investigations of his son he's01:07:37
been01:07:39
supposedly a civilian president01:07:41
supposedly democratically elected he's01:07:44
just been re-elected but there's lots of01:07:47
questions about the validity of this01:07:49
election01:07:51
the way in which the election was01:07:54
conducted has been01:07:57
questionable01:07:59
and the Army in Gabon have made it clear01:08:02
that they don't recognize the outcome of01:08:05
this election so01:08:08
I have to say01:08:09
it did01:08:11
occurred to me01:08:13
that this particular coup unlike the01:08:16
coup in Asia01:08:18
has been launched against the president01:08:20
who is01:08:22
not especially on good terms with France01:08:25
and perhaps it's conceivable that in01:08:28
contrast to the coup that's just taken01:08:31
place in Niger01:08:33
whoever succeeds president Bongo01:08:35
assuming01:08:37
you know that this coup01:08:40
sticks01:08:42
might actually be in some way somebody01:08:45
who wants to mend fences with France01:08:49
where the relations have frayed01:08:52
against that I noticed that President01:08:55
Bongo last year01:08:58
Chuck Gabon into the British01:09:01
Commonwealth01:09:02
an indication again perhaps01:09:06
of unhappiness01:09:09
with France difficult relations with01:09:12
France01:09:13
but certainly of a pro-western alignment01:09:19
so01:09:20
who knows maybe this coup01:09:24
is another indication that01:09:28
governments that are seen in Africa as01:09:32
pro-western and whichever history of01:09:35
corruption which apparently president01:09:38
wongo's government does01:09:40
um01:09:42
are now facing opposition01:09:45
from within their own countries from01:09:47
within their own militaries and again01:09:49
apparently there are reports that01:09:52
there's been crowds in the in Gabon01:09:56
coming out supporting the coup and I01:10:01
haven't yet seen reports of Russian01:10:02
flags flying but there are some01:10:06
similarities perhaps in at least this01:10:08
with what has recently happened in Niger01:10:12
anyway we're going to have to wait and01:10:15
see what this old speaks of but it does01:10:18
seem as if01:10:20
one way or the other there is01:10:23
growing instability in France's01:10:28
former African colonists it's not01:10:32
impossible perhaps that the military in01:10:34
Gabon has been monitoring what has01:10:38
happened in Niger01:10:41
and that they've taken their inspiration01:10:43
from what has happened in Niger01:10:47
acted to overthrow a corrupt and01:10:50
unpopular01:10:52
Western aligned president01:10:55
who is01:11:01
not widely supported in his own country01:11:06
and that they might conceivably01:11:09
having Consolidated control01:11:12
realign Gamble01:11:14
with the Chinese and the Russians or at01:11:17
least pursue and more independent line I01:11:20
want to stress again that I don't know01:11:22
much about Gabor I don't know much about01:11:25
the people behind this coup I doubt for01:11:30
the moment that many people do and it's01:11:33
a topic that I'm going to return to no01:11:35
doubt in a future program01:11:37
but if this is indeed the case of an01:11:41
unraveling01:11:42
of France's informal Empire position if01:11:47
you like in Africa then of course it's01:11:50
going to ring even more alarm bells in01:11:53
the Elise and one wonders what01:11:57
the opinion about01:11:59
these events is going to be in West01:12:02
Africa where whether some of the West01:12:05
African States who are members of ecowas01:12:09
and who have been supportive up to now01:12:12
of the intervention01:12:15
in Niger might have to see what's01:12:19
happened in Gabon start worrying more01:12:22
about their internal stability and might01:12:25
pull back from this anyway we'll see one01:12:28
final thing I will say about the events01:12:31
in gamble is that gamble that's not a01:12:33
member of ecowas is a member of OPEC01:12:37
it's actually it's a small oil producer01:12:43
and though it's hardly a swing producer01:12:47
can only have a marginal effect on oil01:12:52
prices01:12:53
if as I said there's two sticks and it01:12:57
does lead01:12:58
to a more shall we say non-aligned01:13:03
position or perhaps a position closer to01:13:07
that of China01:13:08
and Russia01:13:10
then it will01:13:12
weaken01:13:14
Western01:13:15
influence on OPEC01:13:19
and on OPEC plus further still01:13:23
that's all I could say at the moment01:13:25
about this Coupe in Gabon01:13:28
I'm sure as I said to people in Paris01:13:31
and Washington and London and Brussels01:13:34
are01:13:36
talking to each other about this01:13:38
probably they know more about it01:13:40
certainly than I do but I'm sure they do01:13:42
but one way or the other01:13:45
I'm going to return to this topic as I'm01:13:48
sure we will on the Duran as the dust01:13:50
settles and as we learn more01:13:53
that's where I end today just to remind01:13:56
you again you can find all our programs01:13:59
from our various Platforms in particular01:14:02
if I must say our leading platforms01:14:04
which are locals and Rumble and by the01:14:08
way we're going to be looking hard about01:14:11
returning to Twitter which is of course01:14:14
now X so you can probably find us all01:14:17
there also before long very soon in fact01:14:21
remember also you could support our work01:14:23
via patreon And subscribe star links01:14:25
under this video01:14:27
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yourself the great things that you will01:14:32
find there our magic mugs or hats or01:14:34
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thank you01:14:55
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Ukr Offensive Stuck Rabotino, Syrsky Worries re Kupiansk, Bakhmut, Ukr Rus Drone/Missile Attacks; French Africa Rocked by Another Coup in Gabon Topic 953 *****LOCALS COMMUNITY***** https://theduran.locals.com/ 1 MONTH FREE TRIAL: https://theduran.locals.com/support/promo/DURANLOCALS *****THE DURAN SHOP***** https://theduranshop.com/ 10% OFF COUPON. Use code at checkout: REALNEWS *****OUR OFFICIAL CHANNELS***** ALEXANDER: https://www.youtube.com/AlexanderMercourisReal ALEX: https://www.youtube.com/alexchristoforou *****CRYPTO SUPPORT***** BITCOIN: 3JvdnoyWMb93hSRgk58ZstUxg11PW9mKSr ETHEREUM: 0xF39BdFb41f639B82E3D2Bf022828bC6394F533A3 LTC: MGFiMC18ZViF6DcCixMqAAP11TG4tF6Acj ADA: addr1v94ayqu53uklgqnn6c4x4weu8zk4uw78km8capd5rjdc06q28j370 HEX: 0xD449694348B1D618ECa2829Bbc901782F5172689 EMC2: EXX4KK9pZLx7uiLWnCXtp7iMKjtq6o5b6R *****DONATE***** CREDIT CARD: https://donorbox.org/the-duran SUBSCRIBE STAR: https://www.subscribestar.com/theduran PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/theduran *****VIDEO PLATFORMS***** SUPER U: https://superu.net/channel/055dc88f-aec7-475a-a7ad-1ad271b0282d/ RUMBLE THE DURAN: https://rumble.com/c/theduran ODYSEE: THE DURAN: https://odysee.com/@theduran ALEXANDER: https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a ALEX: https://odysee.com/@alexchristoforou:7 BITCHUTE: THE DURAN: https://www.bitchute.com/theduran/ ALEXANDER: https://www.bitchute.com/alexandermercouris/ ALEX: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/izwNAdmMGIC7/ *****AUDIO PODCASTS***** SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/5DgkWsC3YjoyGBV03CFWnk iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-duran-podcast/id1442883993 Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-901836666 *****FREE SPEECH PLATFORMS***** TELEGRAM: https://t.me/thedurancom GAB: https://gab.ai/?r=1 MINDS: https://www.minds.com/theduran PARLER: https://www.parler.com/profile/theduran/posts MEWE: https://mewe.com/i/theduran VK: https://vk.com/thedurancom OK: https://ok.ru/group/60904083488959 DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/7qFhcjHaeF Amazing music contribution from Peter Brown. Follow Peter's music: https://soundcloud.com/peterboy100
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