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Russian
00:00:01
talking about the biggest Market moving00:00:04
thing that I can possibly think about00:00:06
and that is central banks and their00:00:08
interest rate decisions in financial00:00:11
markets this is one of the lead drivers00:00:13
of currencies bonds stocks everything00:00:16
reacts to what the interest rates set by00:00:19
central banks are doing and in this00:00:21
video I'm going to explain what the00:00:24
interest rates kind of are and how they00:00:26
impact the markets and most importantly00:00:28
how you can actually trade them as a00:00:32
intraday Trader swing Trader scalper00:00:35
this stuff really moves markets and00:00:37
understanding it can be a powerful00:00:39
resource to use in your trading let's00:00:41
jump in00:00:42
yeah00:00:45
so first of all a central bank is of00:00:49
course the biggest banks of major00:00:51
economies like you have the ECB which is00:00:53
the European Central Bank the bank of00:00:55
England which is the UK the Federal00:00:57
Reserve which is the United States you00:00:58
have the bank of Japan you have all00:00:59
these different central banks and these00:01:02
central banks have an agenda they're00:01:04
trying to keep the economy as strong as00:01:07
possible while not overheating and00:01:10
keeping people at work with jobs that00:01:12
sort of thing they have kind of a goal00:01:14
here and they use interest rates as00:01:17
their primary weapon to help to control00:01:21
this agenda so what I mean by that00:01:23
as a central bank has a base rate or a00:01:27
uh interest rate that they can set for00:01:30
borrowing and lending in their00:01:32
respective economies so this base rate00:01:35
is controlled and set by an economy's00:01:38
central bank now if you are trying to00:01:41
buy a car or buy a house you need to00:01:44
take loans right well those loans and00:01:46
that that rate that you pay interest00:01:48
back to the bank is actually set at the00:01:51
top level by a central bank and so you00:01:53
can see how this has a huge implication00:01:55
on the whole economy as to how00:01:59
affordable or unaffordable or00:02:02
inaffordable I'm not sure the right word00:02:03
unaffordable not as easy to get loans or00:02:07
easy to get loans that are at good rates00:02:10
so let's talk about that a little bit00:02:11
more now a central bank may want to00:02:14
increase an economy's growth or it might00:02:17
actually need to decrease an economy's00:02:19
growth and there's reasons for this a00:02:22
lot of growth in an economy can lead to00:02:24
a lot of inflation and a lot of00:02:26
inflation can actually lead to meltdowns00:02:29
recessions and really bad stuff now00:02:32
growth causes inflation because if00:02:35
companies are hiring more people and00:02:37
giving them wage increases and people00:02:39
are out buying cars and houses you can00:02:41
see how lots of money is getting spent00:02:43
and pretty soon prices start to rise00:02:45
very quickly and that can lead to some00:02:48
really dangerous spots so a central bank00:02:50
may need to use their interest rates to00:02:54
make borrowing easier or harder for00:02:57
Citizens people of the country that's so00:02:59
on and so forth so an example here is00:03:02
I've got this little chart here so I00:03:04
want to show you two two different sort00:03:06
of scenarios if a central bank wants to00:03:09
increase growth in an economy what it00:03:11
might do to increase that growth is to00:03:14
actually lower interest rates Now by00:03:17
lowering interest rates the Central Bank00:03:20
makes it easier for people to go out and00:03:22
get cheaper loans to buy houses to buy00:03:25
cars and it allows businesses to borrow00:03:28
money at a cheaper rate so they can get00:03:30
back out there and hire more people so00:03:33
if an economy needs to grow if there's a00:03:35
real bad need for growth a Central Bank00:03:38
of that economy may choose to actually00:03:40
lower the interest rate at the at the00:03:43
highest level on the flip side a central00:03:46
bank that wants to kind of slow down the00:03:49
economy so that it doesn't overheat00:03:50
might do the opposite they may actually00:03:52
raise their interest rates or hike00:03:55
interest rates to start to try and slow00:03:58
down or calm down the economy so that00:04:00
things don't get out of control so again00:04:03
it can be kind of confusing because00:04:04
people would say why not just keep00:04:06
interest rates low don't you want your00:04:07
economy to grow as fast as possible and00:04:10
there is actually some science here to00:04:12
this at least in Western economic00:04:15
philosophy too much growth too quickly00:04:17
can be really bad and of course it goes00:04:20
both ways you want an economy to grow00:04:22
but you don't want it to overheat and00:04:23
grow too fast so we'll talk about that a00:04:25
little bit more so let's walk through a00:04:27
little bit of an example here and you'll00:04:29
see hopefully by why interest rates may00:04:31
need to be hiked in certain scenarios so00:04:34
if an economy is experiencing tremendous00:04:37
growth like let's say it's just booming00:04:39
and things are great inflation can start00:04:42
to occur as wages start to get increased00:04:45
from employers who are more competitive00:04:48
for people who need jobs so job growth00:04:51
is is again very competitive and when00:04:54
that happens people or employers need to00:04:56
start paying people more and they give00:04:58
people raises and this leads to people00:05:00
having more money in their pocket and00:05:01
people go out and spend it this is what00:05:04
is called inflation area causes prices00:05:06
to go up and that doesn't sound too bad00:05:08
Until you realize if inflation starts to00:05:10
get out of control it can actually00:05:12
destroy the consumer's purchasing power00:05:15
it's kind of weird right you would think00:05:16
well people are getting paid more they00:05:18
should be able to buy more things that00:05:19
is true to a certain point but if00:05:21
everybody's just rushing and bidding up00:05:23
all the prices what happens is it starts00:05:25
to get out of control prices go way too00:05:27
high and then there's kind of a collapse00:05:30
and that can be really really ugly like00:05:32
you can see in my perfectly to scale00:05:34
brilliant drawing here I'm just kidding00:05:36
it's just an illustration this can lead00:05:38
to a really big crash and it's really00:05:41
really ugly and it's happened in the00:05:42
past an example of this would be the00:05:44
Great Depression right the Great00:05:45
Depression we saw people in the United00:05:48
States just going actually pretty00:05:49
globally people were buying stock shares00:05:52
like crazy and real estate and everybody00:05:55
was thriving and of course that's great00:05:57
when times are good but what happens is00:06:00
that when things start to kind of fall00:06:02
apart it can actually devastate a people00:06:04
people a group of people and actually00:06:06
even leave them way worse off than00:06:08
things that you know when it first00:06:10
started so there is a healthy level of00:06:13
growth That central banks kind of Target00:06:15
and to help with this this is where they00:06:17
use interest rates to try and normalize00:06:20
the growth that's happening so central00:06:22
banks closely monitor inflation to avoid00:06:25
these catastrophic situations where00:06:27
inflation goes hot and then they have to00:06:30
uh you know basically put people into a00:06:32
terrible situation there's a natural00:06:34
cycle to this that the central banks are00:06:36
after and we're going to go into kind of00:06:38
a more detailed example here so just a00:06:41
heads up this is definitely00:06:43
oversimplified when I go through this00:06:45
here this is just a really high level00:06:46
example of what might happen the problem00:06:49
with financial markets and with you know00:06:51
knowing the future is that nobody knows00:06:53
the future for certain and central banks00:06:56
are doing their best to take the data00:06:58
that's in front of them and make00:06:59
decisions but no two rate hiking or rate00:07:02
cutting Cycles are identical to one00:07:04
another there's always new things like00:07:07
right now there's like the growth of AI00:07:09
and we had uh the Russian invasion of00:07:11
Ukraine every single situation in00:07:13
markets is unique and so central banks00:07:16
are doing the best they can to try to00:07:18
keep inflation and try and keep growth00:07:20
at a relatively uh steady pace so let's00:07:23
do a really simplified example phase one00:07:26
growth is slow labor market is weak and00:07:30
the Central Bank decides to cut interest00:07:33
rates now this is a theoretical example00:07:34
so we're saying so the growth of an00:07:36
economy is really slow things are not00:07:38
doing very well and the labor market is00:07:40
weak people are unemployed and there's a00:07:42
problem so the Central Bank looks at00:07:45
that situation and they say okay we need00:07:47
to cut interest rates to make borrowing00:07:49
more accessible to companies so that00:07:51
they can get out there and hire more00:07:52
people get people back to work etc so00:07:55
this is an example of when a central00:07:56
bank may choose to cut their interest00:07:59
rate meaning lower their interest rate00:08:01
so that borrowing is cheaper at the00:08:03
highest level the this makes borrowing00:08:06
money cheaper as mentioned and what it00:08:08
leads to is companies start to hire and00:08:11
companies start to see growth because00:08:13
more people are getting paid and the00:08:15
gears of the economy start to turn and00:08:18
what causes this or what what this00:08:20
causes in financial markets for us as00:08:22
Traders is this little section right00:08:24
here during this period of growth what00:08:27
we start to see is that the dollar00:08:28
starts to fall as people get out of cash00:08:30
and they start going more into stocks00:08:33
stocks tend to rise during this time and00:08:36
bonds tend to rise during this time as00:08:37
people are selling off the dollar in00:08:39
favor of more risky assets and investing00:08:42
their money that they may have left over00:08:44
from all of this Prosperity so we00:08:46
typically see during this time stocks do00:08:48
well00:08:49
um bonds Market might rise as well00:08:52
Etc phase three growth is really strong00:08:55
the labor market is now also strong and00:08:57
we start to get a little bit of00:08:59
inflation so prices are starting to heat00:09:02
up and the Central Bank may look at this00:09:05
and say okay we've had a lot of growth00:09:06
let's get this thing to be a little bit00:09:09
more under control so we don't run off00:09:11
the rails here so the Central Bank May00:09:13
then choose to start slowly hiking00:09:16
interest rates that doesn't mean that00:09:17
they're just going to raise interest00:09:18
rates dramatically all of a sudden they00:09:20
may just say hey let's just keep this00:09:21
growth in check by slowly raising00:09:24
interest rates so the US dollar in this00:09:27
situation actually starts to rise as00:09:29
people are saying okay well now the00:09:31
dollar is looking a bit more attractive00:09:32
and at the same time we have stocks00:09:35
typically starting to see some00:09:37
retracements start to see a little bit00:09:38
of pullback a little bit of suppression00:09:40
and bonds also typically fall in this00:09:43
environment so this cycle you can start00:09:46
to see it tends to repeat over and over00:09:48
and over because now you can see on on00:09:50
phase three here we're starting to look00:09:52
back like we are uh getting closer to00:09:55
phase one right where growth starts to00:09:58
slow next and we start to get back into00:10:00
hey there's a weak labor market again00:10:02
maybe companies needed to lay off once00:10:04
interest rates started getting pretty00:10:05
high and now we're back to square one so00:10:08
you can see on number four here that the00:10:10
cycle typically repeats itself over and00:10:12
over the Blue Line representing00:10:13
inflation right and so as inflation is00:10:17
starting to rise interest rates uh this00:10:20
might have been the product of of00:10:21
interest rates being cut and so on and00:10:23
so forth as as interest rates get hiked00:10:26
again inflation starts to fall and so on00:10:29
and so forth you can see that this00:10:31
typically happens over and over again00:10:33
now why I said this is overly simplified00:10:35
is because there's always external00:10:39
forces and I'm going to call them other00:10:41
contributors to what a central bank has00:10:43
to kind of deal with right if you're a00:10:45
central bank during World War II you can00:10:47
imagine the stress that central banks00:10:49
had to kind of put up with during that00:10:51
time as a war for example demands a lot00:10:55
of money to to fund so let's talk about00:10:59
other contributors to this equation00:11:01
right interest rates are what central00:11:03
banks are using00:11:04
too slow or moderate an economy or or to00:11:09
stimulate an economy that has slowed00:11:10
down tremendously so you can see00:11:12
interest rates are very very important00:11:14
to markets and you know economies are00:11:17
very much fixated uh on trying to grow00:11:20
at a nice Pace but not overheating and00:11:22
so this whole equation as Traders you00:11:25
and I can very much uh gain some00:11:28
important storytelling aspects of the00:11:31
market by understanding what interest00:11:32
rates are doing so if we see a trend to00:11:34
the upside in interest rates raising00:11:37
interest rates from central banks00:11:38
there's trades there that can actually00:11:39
be taken advantage of and if they start00:11:41
to cut interest rates or hinting that00:11:42
there might be rate Cuts in the future00:11:44
we as Traders can jump the head of the00:11:47
curve and start to look for00:11:48
opportunities in that direction so again00:11:51
this is why interest rates are so so00:11:52
important to financial markets let's00:11:55
also now talk about other contributors00:11:56
because remember I said that was overly00:11:58
simplified this is why they're just the00:12:01
nature of the real world there's always00:12:03
other contributors for example but if00:12:05
oil prices are rising00:12:07
think about when you go to the pumps and00:12:09
you have to pay for gasoline sometimes00:12:11
it hurts a lot more than other times00:12:12
when it hurts a lot more that is00:12:15
inflationary because all of consumers00:12:17
are having to pay more at the pumps and00:12:19
with that companies who are paying for00:12:21
oil themselves they have to pass that00:12:24
cost onto their consumer they're their00:12:28
customers right so if you're a a company00:12:31
that let's say you're a grocery store00:12:33
and you have things on the pantry or00:12:35
things on on the shelf that people need00:12:37
to buy and put in their Pantry that sort00:12:38
of thing well to get bread onto the00:12:40
shelves there's like planes and trucks00:12:43
and cars and stuff that have to move it00:12:44
all around and if that energy cost for00:12:47
those vehicles to move the stuff around00:12:49
in transportation energy has a huge00:12:52
impact on inflation and hence can00:12:55
actually throw a loop into essential00:12:56
bank's game plan the reason that this00:12:58
matters so much is every supply line00:13:00
relies on energy or oil or gas whatever00:13:03
it is to actually move product around00:13:05
and so if Energy prices are are rising00:13:08
if oil costs are going up it can be very00:13:11
much inflationary to an economy so00:13:13
that's just one situation another00:13:15
example is what I mentioned earlier in00:13:17
the case of War if there's a war going00:13:20
on central banks may be required to00:13:22
print a ton of money which can cause a00:13:25
lot of inflation and can have some00:13:27
repercussions where central banks may00:13:29
need may need to really uh look to raise00:13:31
interest rates to combat that inflation00:13:33
which can have huge implications on00:13:35
markets just remember if interest rates00:13:38
are rising it's likely going to cause00:13:40
dollar strength and it's going to likely00:13:42
cause stocks to start to Tumble so on00:13:45
and so forth some current examples of00:13:46
this are the Russia and Ukraine00:13:48
situation like I mentioned earlier when00:13:50
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 that was00:13:53
very inflationary for many places00:13:55
because a lot of spending had to go into00:13:58
Ukraine from a lot of the western allies00:14:00
and same thing with Russia like this is00:14:03
just that just requires a lot of00:14:04
spending and a lot of spending leads to00:14:06
the pricing power of dollars of Euros of00:14:10
whatever is being printed to decrease in00:14:13
value so that can be very inflationary00:14:15
and can cause the central bank to react00:14:18
now on top of this supply lines being00:14:21
interrupted can be very inflationary so00:14:24
again going back to Ukraine as well as00:14:27
the covet situation both of these events00:14:30
caused major issues in the supply chain00:14:32
covet is kind of a more easy example00:14:34
everybody kind of shut down and all the00:14:36
uh you know parts for cars and you know00:14:39
all sorts of supply line stuff got00:14:41
slowed down and that means that there's00:14:43
a high demand for product but very00:14:46
little bit of supply and so prices get00:14:48
Rising fast and so that can be very00:14:51
inflationary as well also throwing a00:14:53
loop into the situation for central00:14:56
banks to to decide what to do with their00:14:58
interest rates not to mention with uh00:15:00
with the the covet situation there was00:15:03
also a ton of stimulus that was printed00:15:04
worldwide especially in the US it was a00:15:06
very big massive push of stimulus and00:15:10
you know a lot of times people not to00:15:12
get political on this stuff but00:15:13
government programs can also be00:15:16
inflationary when tons of money gets00:15:19
printed or handed out or people want00:15:21
free things nothing in this world is00:15:23
free and when it comes to free00:15:26
incentives or free programs from00:15:28
governments what it really actually ends00:15:30
up meaning is that you me and everybody00:15:33
involved in the country that is you know00:15:35
doing those programs we end up all00:15:37
paying for it collectively at the store00:15:39
at the pumps wherever we're going to buy00:15:42
products prices are going to rise00:15:43
because printing of money does not mean00:15:46
it's free for everyone it means you and00:15:48
I pay way more money for our products00:15:50
and services so you know during 202000:15:52
there was massive amounts of stimulus00:15:54
and now here years later all of us are00:15:56
paying for it right tons of money got00:15:58
printed I'm not saying by any means that00:16:00
people who are in in dire situations did00:16:03
not deserve the help they got I'm just00:16:04
saying that there's always a00:16:06
repercussion when printing money when00:16:08
incentives happen that is incredibly00:16:10
inflationary and central banks00:16:12
oftentimes have to do something about it00:16:14
so when there's tons of inflation in a00:16:16
system in order to get that inflation00:16:17
under control interest rates can be00:16:19
expected to rise and those things can00:16:21
again be dollar bullish and bearish for00:16:24
indices Etc and I drew this little00:16:26
drawing here the the Cheerios box00:16:28
because I don't know if anybody else has00:16:29
noticed this but you know how when you00:16:30
go to the store what used to be much00:16:33
cheaper in terms of like a cereal box is00:16:35
an easy example is now much more00:16:37
expensive and notice something about my00:16:38
drawing here notice another thing they00:16:40
do another trick they do at the store is00:16:42
they do something what I like to call00:16:43
shrinkflation where the old box of00:16:46
Cheerios or I don't know if it's00:16:48
Cheerios specifically but many products00:16:49
they used to have bigger boxes now the00:16:51
boxes have been reduced in size which is00:16:54
a quiet way of not Rising prices as much00:16:57
but still reducing how much is given to00:16:59
you when you purchase a product anyways00:17:01
I thought that was kind of interesting00:17:02
because I've noticed that the stores00:17:03
myself you know the products that I've00:17:05
bought for years not only have their00:17:07
price has gone up but the size of the00:17:09
packaging has actually gone down that is00:17:11
crazy but again just another example of00:17:13
inflation in the act so next up let's00:17:15
talk about how I use this so interest00:17:17
rates play a key decision in my trading00:17:20
process it is a very important component00:17:21
to my trading and I factor inflation00:17:24
data and interest rate data into my00:17:26
trading decisions and I'm going to show00:17:28
you about how to do that in just a00:17:29
second with our software which actually00:17:31
automates this process to help me find00:17:33
better trading setups in the market so00:17:35
I'll jump over the chart now okay guys00:17:37
so I just wanted to show you a little00:17:38
bit of how the interest rate numbers are00:17:41
impacting uh I guess my personal00:17:43
strategy but also the software that our00:17:45
team has built you know economic data00:17:48
inflation unemployment figures all sorts00:17:51
of stuff all of this stuff is very very00:17:53
important but what is difficult is00:17:54
looking at all of it at the same time00:17:56
what our software does is it pulls in00:17:58
all of the data the interest rates the00:18:01
job statistics inflation GDP it pulls in00:18:04
a ton of Market data and it generates by00:18:07
biases based on this thing so in this00:18:09
video we're talking specifically about00:18:11
interest rates and how important they00:18:13
are but so is labor and inflation and00:18:16
growth in an economy and what our00:18:18
software aims to do is take into account00:18:19
all of these economics or the00:18:21
fundamentals and score them together to00:18:25
produce biases in the market so right00:18:27
now the US economy has been relatively00:18:29
strong compared to other places and00:18:31
interest rates have been very stubbornly00:18:33
high so what you'll notice is that00:18:34
across the board we're getting a lot of00:18:36
dollar bullishness from our signals here00:18:38
under the score column all this is doing00:18:40
is taking into account all of these00:18:42
statistics all of these numbers and00:18:44
giving us a nice bias so I use the edge00:18:46
finder to find the setups that I trade00:18:48
and if you do want a copy of this tool00:18:50
we work very very hard to keep the00:18:52
algorithm tight and considering lots of00:18:54
Market data so if this would be00:18:56
something that you'd like more00:18:57
information about please feel free to00:18:58
message us using the link in the00:19:00
description down below there is a direct00:19:02
message center where you can basically00:19:04
have a conversation with someone on my00:19:06
staff about the tool and if you'd like00:19:09
you can actually even set up a call with00:19:10
us if that's something that you think00:19:11
would be useful to you in your trading00:19:13
many Traders are using it every single00:19:15
day to help them find more fundamental00:19:17
and economic figures based trading00:19:19
setups if you're looking to improve as a00:19:21
Trader we've got some cool free00:19:23
resources here that I wanted to share as00:19:25
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Message our team 👉 https://tawk.to/chat/62e5d26254f06e12d88c1ec2/1g98rrk80 Telegram 👉 https://t.me/A1TradingFXAnalysis Discord 👉 https://form.jotform.com/222813471098155 *EDGEFINDER: TRADING SOFTWARE TOOL* - ✅ COT data, Retail Sentiment, Fundamental Trends, & more! - 🎁 Discount code: YTVIP Access now: https://www.a1trading.com/edgefinder/ *TRADE ALERTS* - ✅ Signals, Strategies, Webinars, Education, & Chat Rooms - 🎁 Discount code: YTVIP Access now: https://www.a1trading.com/vip/ 🎱 Checkout Eightcap: #1 forex broker for NON US clients: https://trade.eightcap.com/en/trade-with-edgefinder/ *BEST BROKER SIGNUP OFFERS* https://www.a1trading.com/brokers/ *FREE STUFF* Trading course: https://form.jotform.com/231974999448177 Technical analysis guide: https://form.jotform.com/222585325542052 *DISCLAIMERS* This video expresses our personal opinions only, and is NOT in any way financial advice. Trading financial markets involves risk, and is not suitable for all investors. We are not responsible for any losses incurred due to your trading or anything else. We do not recommend any specific trade or action. Note, please do your own due diligence before making a decision to do business with any financial brokerage. A1 Trading will make a small affiliate commission should you choose to sign up for either of the affiliated brokers above. Thank you for supporting the channel! Please be aware of impersonators online: We will not message people directly asking for payment. Please be aware of impersonators and do not send money to any account that is not listed on our website. 0:00 - Intro 0:46 - What are Interest Rates? 4:26 - Interest Rates Examples 10:54 - Other Contributors 17:15 - How I Use Interest Rates
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