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Russian
00:00:02
[applause]00:00:11
friends, today you and I will have a00:00:13
big conversation, a really big one, you00:00:16
and I have to somehow keep it to00:00:20
0, it will be very00:00:22
difficult, but it’s a little easier for me to stop00:00:25
than Vasya, that’s why Vasya, as I understand it,00:00:30
has come to an end That’s because he has no equal00:00:33
in the fact that you can’t stop the singing00:00:34
Kobzon of the flying bison And Vasya who00:00:38
makes predictions This is a sacred thing Well,00:00:42
we can’t do it without Vasya, so I went through my00:00:46
comrades in the workshop Now look friends00:00:49
I would like to divide my speech into00:00:52
three parts Part one I00:00:56
will It will be small I'll talk a little about00:00:59
what's happening to this world and00:01:02
why, in fact, That's why it's like this00:01:05
now Why these00:01:07
colossal contradictions have arisen Why,00:01:10
strictly speaking, the American market00:01:13
can't be exiled Vasya always00:01:16
says Well, this is madness, this is madness00:01:18
Madness can't be like this, God bless00:01:20
him with Vasya he says that this is a casino, why did00:01:24
she become such, in general, what00:01:26
is happening in the world is the rise of the miva00:01:31
stage of human financial00:01:33
investment history, many books will be written on it00:01:36
about the transformation of00:01:38
this world, so we will talk with you for00:01:40
10-15 minutes about this, such general00:01:43
things because that without their understanding you and I00:01:46
will not be able to understand, in fact,00:01:48
what is00:01:49
happening the second part I will talk about the00:01:52
Russian stock market00:01:59
This market is growing, how long does it still have to grow00:02:03
what is interesting is that in the future00:02:05
we will definitely talk about this Well, the00:02:07
third part of the Marlezon ballet is our00:02:10
own investment ideas Well Yes, and00:02:12
the fourth, of course, this is Booth,00:02:15
friends, answers to your questions right away, I want to00:02:18
say I’m ready for any00:02:21
questions, so ask. Don’t00:02:23
be shy if you want tough questions. I00:02:26
love tough questions. We’ve gathered here00:02:28
and I’m very grateful to the organizers of00:02:33
this conference, first of all, for the00:02:35
opportunity to talk face to face with00:02:38
a large number of people who are00:02:40
interested in markets Well, in general,00:02:42
talking to people eye to eye00:02:44
is very important, you know, when you are sitting00:02:47
in front of this damn screen and00:02:49
sometimes you have the feeling that this is some kind of00:02:51
dementor, you know, he sucks out all the juices and00:02:53
in return you don’t get these eye And00:02:56
eyes are energy Well, let's go So the00:03:00
first part of our conversation with you, friends,00:03:01
is actually about00:03:05
this global world in which we live and00:03:08
the world in which, strictly speaking,00:03:10
all these amazing00:03:11
absolutely amazing events happen, which means00:03:14
that I mean the00:03:16
first thing happened some kind of philosophical00:03:20
rethinking of our reality and the00:03:23
rules by which we live. The fact is00:03:25
that everything today has been called into question,00:03:28
absolutely everything, first of all in00:03:31
recent years as a result of the madness00:03:35
created00:03:36
by simply printing helicopter00:03:39
money, but no one has ever00:03:41
done this. Well, actually, such a pandemic there00:03:43
wasn’t a lot of money printed,00:03:45
inflation started, everything is logical. What to do with this,00:03:49
what to do with it when you have00:03:51
budget deficits, they are not that big. It’s clear00:03:54
what to do when Well, now I won’t00:03:56
bring up Vasya’s favorite topic. I’ve already poked at him00:03:58
three times, I feel there’s already a bubble from00:04:01
him, so00:04:02
for00:04:04
advertising, so Vasya really likes00:04:06
to talk about what’s happening in the world. And I’ll00:04:09
say about the following, it’s been completely lost in recent00:04:12
years. Trust in financial00:04:15
institutions and in fiat money, money00:04:18
today is burning people’s hands, people don’t want to00:04:21
sit in money, you understand, and so they are00:04:23
running into various00:04:25
assets just the other day they ran into00:04:28
gold and silver - this is logical, to be honest, I’m00:04:30
already waiting for this to happen. A00:04:32
mad rush is not the end this is not the end00:04:35
because gold and silver are some kind of00:04:38
alternative Where next today I met a00:04:41
guy who wants to establish a00:04:43
unique the production of diamond cutting is00:04:46
completely unique and I understand that00:04:49
this will also happen, because before, well, diamonds have00:04:51
never been a particularly interesting00:04:53
object for investment, I think that this00:04:56
will also be me, but the main thing is that about and the00:05:00
main thing is that people are running away from money Why and00:05:04
because you understand What a thing00:05:06
everyone is of you, let's do this, friends. That's00:05:09
for whom his personal inflation over the past00:05:12
year was more than 15% Raise your hands the00:05:16
whole hall, almost the whole hall Thank you And what about00:05:19
inflation in Russia? Yes There's like00:05:22
7-something percent, but in the world it's00:05:24
3 with something00:05:26
4% are00:05:28
deceiving us no00:05:30
it’s not a deception it’s the so-called techniques00:05:33
the technique is very simple but I like to00:05:35
talk about it but it’s the simplest here00:05:38
we have iPhone a year passes with the price of what00:05:41
iPhone what’s happening Well of course it’s00:05:44
falling in price correctly00:05:46
accordingly these are here are all the things they00:05:49
fall in price Therefore, after a year 1400:05:53
iPhone it is compared not with but00:05:58
dreaming of such a Methodology and it is used00:06:01
not only here, it is all over the world and00:06:04
so on, a car released this00:06:06
year and a car released next00:06:09
year, it is clear that next year more00:06:11
expensive, even the same model, but they00:06:14
are not compared, but a car of00:06:16
this year is compared with a car of the same00:06:18
year a year later, you understand, and then the numbers are00:06:21
completely different, this is the same methodology and00:06:24
it is used all over the world, so we are00:06:26
not deceived, but there are three types of inflation,00:06:29
two types we you and I know this is inflation,00:06:32
strictly speaking, which00:06:34
Rosstat or American agencies or00:06:36
European agencies tell us, it’s all clear. What else is00:06:40
our personal inflation of the basket00:06:43
that you and I use and it’s00:06:46
different and then when we invest we00:06:49
think Yeah Our task is inflation00:06:52
There will be either 15 or 20 or00:06:55
something else to compare my baskets and I need to00:06:57
at least ensure that at the end of the00:07:00
year I have at least no less00:07:02
inflation in the ruble inflation in the dollar is a00:07:04
separate topic in the euro but I would introduce00:07:07
the concept the third inflation is the inflation of00:07:10
our goals, you understand Friends, here I00:07:13
really love this conversation, a00:07:15
man comes to me and starts consulting with me, the00:07:18
topic is simple, I00:07:20
came to the market00:07:22
and what to do Well, my question is clear00:07:25
dude, why did you come? What do you want?00:07:28
You want to earn money Yes, I want00:07:31
to earn money Okay, so you’re a00:07:33
speculator, I’m not, I’m not a speculator, I’m an investor.00:07:37
Okay, okay, that is, you’re00:07:40
ready to forget about investing for a year,00:07:43
two, or three, just make yourself00:07:45
a portfolio and do something there once a month, at00:07:48
best. I don’t want00:07:50
to actively, which means you’re a speculator, I’m not a00:07:53
trader Yeah, well, a trader is an honorable00:07:56
speculator, it’s not good I once00:07:58
interviewed Academician Glazne Well, an00:08:01
interesting person, his views are of course00:08:03
peculiar, but the main reason for all the troubles00:08:07
in the world, Mr. Glazyev says it’s00:08:10
speculators, I’m today by the way00:08:12
I made a big article on this topic on the channel and00:08:15
then on Yandex I put it00:08:16
very long under it. It’s good00:08:20
sometimes you can fall asleep and turn it on so that there is00:08:22
sound. No, but the truth is, you know when00:08:24
Insomnia I use sometimes Kole00:08:30
turns it off.00:08:32
2 minutes another00:08:35
after 10 minutes there is a gradation when I want to fall00:08:38
asleep I put one or another00:08:40
colleague everything is very00:08:41
cool it helps a lot so the00:08:45
inflation of our goals friends this is also a00:08:48
very important thing we Why do we save00:08:50
money why do we enter the market Why are00:08:52
all these ideas we take it in order to00:09:00
finally have a pension, but if we want to00:09:03
retire, it means that we don’t need to00:09:06
have money for retirement, but the00:09:08
opportunity to get a certain set of00:09:11
goods and services. Well, for example, the services of00:09:13
doctors, which for some reason are also becoming more expensive, this is how00:09:15
our services are00:09:18
free of course everything, but we understand that00:09:20
sometimes there are00:09:22
fees, so we understand that00:09:25
we need to focus on the basket00:09:27
that will be in the future, and this inflation00:09:30
may still be another property, it can00:09:32
stand, it may fall, let’s talk if00:09:33
you want, in answers to questions about00:09:35
real estate, I did two not long ago00:09:38
big conversation with one very00:09:39
respected professor, he believes that everything00:09:42
will be bad, I don’t think so Why00:09:45
we’ll discuss it at the presentation But the main thing, friends,00:09:48
we must understand With you, the situation00:09:51
is changing radically, not only is the00:09:54
political geopolitical00:09:56
reformatting of this world going on Finan00:10:00
ro here is the simplest thing Let’s remember00:10:05
ourselves years 510 ago So let's say, which00:10:09
of you just honestly thought about what00:10:12
kind of investment in a00:10:15
cue ball in general to invest in crypto,00:10:18
friends, just honestly, honestly,00:10:20
raise it for yourself. Yeah, they've already00:10:28
raised it, that's right, I'll00:10:30
invest a cue ball. For example, like this00:10:33
because I I didn’t do this I’m not the00:10:35
smartest little little little little so that’s why00:10:40
Because investments imply00:10:42
cash flow, we consider it a disaster Forward00:10:45
disaster and so on That is, we understand00:10:46
what the cash flow will be and that’s it,00:10:48
according to the theory of the old man of sin and00:10:51
This is what the theory of investment is based on. Well,00:10:54
what is the cash flow from the cue ball? Okay.00:10:57
What about the staking? Yeah. So there is already a00:10:59
cash flow, well, there is a cash00:11:03
flow, then it is already00:11:05
overestimated. Before our eyes, a revolution took place. For00:11:10
10 years, they hit the old man00:11:13
Gensler in the face, who is the head of the00:11:15
commission on securities are valuable in America, in the00:11:17
end he agreed, he said okay, to hell with00:11:19
you, let there be an IF for the cue ball, this is a00:11:21
revolution, it’s really a revolution,00:11:24
because today, anyone who has a00:11:26
brokerage account, well, except for Russia, and in00:11:29
some places, can buy an IF for the cue ball,00:11:32
that is, buy that the same cue ball, what00:11:33
difference does it make to get the same dynamics,00:11:36
good, that is, now investments in00:11:40
crypto, in particular in the cue ball, are completely00:11:42
free Okay, most likely they will finish it off, but it won’t be00:11:45
very soon, it will be for a very00:11:47
long time, it will be on air, it will be on ether, and so on and so on00:11:51
And then we have00:11:53
discussions about how long it will take for00:11:55
all these things00:11:58
to grow between the00:12:01
world’s largest bankers and those who manage00:12:03
huge funds.00:12:05
What percentage of the location in00:12:08
portfolios should be in00:12:11
crypto? Well, the discussion there is 3 5 10 15 Yes,00:12:16
no more, it’s conservative approach, we00:12:19
will approach you conservatively and00:12:20
say five Who knows what00:12:23
the capitalization of the00:12:25
cue ball is today, about a trillion00:12:29
Who knows what the capitalization of the world00:12:32
stock market is 100 trino 100 trino00:12:36
dollars then I ask the question 5% 5 will00:12:40
allocate I00:12:42
don’t give forecasts myself,00:12:45
but I understand that big money is coming00:12:47
next they will go therefore Well, let’s say00:12:51
probably Prices I’m probably very afraid00:12:54
to give pronov here, if only because00:12:59
It could be anything the regulators00:13:01
can wake up You look at the face00:13:04
on air, so to speak, a wonderful face00:13:06
when someone talks about00:13:09
crypto in front of her Look at the American00:13:12
regulators, you all Sing, there will be desperate00:13:14
resistance, there will be jumps in all00:13:17
directions, but why are people now running00:13:20
to gold, to silver, to crypto, maybe they will00:13:23
run to stones and generally to assets, but00:13:26
because people understand it’s scary Now, how00:13:30
it will start or not start, but this00:13:33
year is scary amazing we are constantly afraid there00:13:35
will be a big war in the Middle East and00:13:38
there is also Taiwan China, all this00:13:40
leaves a00:13:42
huge mark and influence on the00:13:46
investment strategy because,00:13:49
willingly or unwillingly, many companies are00:13:51
growing Not because they have to grow, but00:13:53
they are growing rapidly trouble, but00:13:56
because they can be in demand, it00:13:59
also becomes interesting because we are00:14:00
looking at how I am reformatting this00:14:03
world and what could be interesting. Well,00:14:06
now let’s essentially start with the00:14:08
Russian stock market, so I’ll remove00:14:10
this00:14:14
thing, these are the ones they were If you want00:14:18
fundamentally Listen and where did I00:14:20
switch this thing? I00:14:22
threw it in00:14:24
my pocket No It’s my phone, it’s not00:14:27
above the dirt,00:14:29
so they gave it to me Well, you see what a check is in00:14:31
insanity now we’ll find it,00:14:35
we won’t go anywhere No, it’s a phone and in the back Yes00:14:40
Exactly You understand What a tragedy it is00:14:44
when there are many pockets This terrible So let's00:14:47
move on So friends, the Russian00:14:49
stock market, our market at the beginning of 2000:14:54
grew by00:14:55
60%,00:14:58
many00:15:00
Troilinsky00:15:08
despite the efforts of our friends00:15:11
Khusinov e 249 about Well, you see everything for yourself,00:15:16
that is, and I would like to first of all00:15:18
mention the Moscow Exchange, I think that as00:15:21
how more and00:15:23
more masses of Workers will come to our market,00:15:26
most likely They will definitely have a good time in00:15:29
this life Well, other issuers and the00:15:32
same Sberbank, we all know very well00:15:34
how these orphans cried in general bankers about00:15:37
how difficult everything will be The Central00:15:39
Bank has clamped down on lending we we understand00:15:42
why he is struggling with the growth of the money00:15:43
supply, and the main reason for the growth of inflation is the00:15:46
growth of the money supply, the growth of M2, the00:15:49
number of goods is also more money. So, the00:15:50
rise in prices is the main reason for the sun, the00:15:53
rest is devaluation, these are all00:15:55
temporary surges, but the growth of the money00:15:58
supply is a permanent reason for the growth of inflation00:16:01
in order to fight the money supply, our00:16:02
Central Bank is clamping down on this growth, in00:16:05
particular by limiting lending, both through00:16:08
administrative measures and the00:16:10
highest rate, which, apparently,00:16:12
will remain for a long time. But more on that a little later.00:16:14
So, what do we have with00:16:16
gutika bankers this year will clearly00:16:20
earn why with lending is a00:16:23
problem, so a lot of interesting00:16:25
niches arise. Moreover, I’ll get ahead of myself a little.00:16:29
Bankers today understand the development of00:16:31
official digital currencies, the issuers of00:16:33
which are central banks. These blows00:16:36
can be said to be serious because00:16:39
they will leave00:16:41
transactional kopecks that do not have.00:16:43
Well, at the very least, they still have a00:16:46
system of fast payments, but many of00:16:48
us, including me, are suckers every time I00:16:50
forget that it’s possible to do this Okay, the commission is to00:16:52
hell with it, we urgently need to understand this is such an00:16:54
interesting thing, they will leave, but they are00:16:57
turning into fintech and it’s not in vain that Sberbank00:16:59
is doing the Armed Forces in order to become a fnm00:17:01
Why and because the multipliers are00:17:03
different and everyone wants to become Fin and I see00:17:07
this one from Sovcombank, which00:17:09
came out great. By the way, who knows which issuers00:17:13
came out really well because don’t be00:17:16
greedy, the problem is everyone is greedy.00:17:29
for a long time and the second tenf we’ll00:17:33
talk about it separately, I think that they also00:17:35
came out at very reasonable prices, all the00:17:37
rest Well, there are questions we’ll discuss00:17:40
a little further and now we’ll talk about the most interesting thing00:17:43
Let’s talk about the reasons for the00:17:46
growth of this market of ours and where it will00:17:49
go00:17:51
next,00:17:53
this is a fact00:17:59
individuals, people come to the market, their money00:18:02
burns their hands, why do they come, we’ll talk about this00:18:04
separately, now we’ll talk about the second very00:18:07
serious reason - this is the closedness of the00:18:09
financial system. Probably this is the main00:18:12
reason why. Because in our country,00:18:15
rich people used to earn money on the ultranet,00:18:17
the exchange says the number of ultranets has increased sharply.00:18:20
And who are the ultranets? Well those00:18:23
who may be subject to sanctions or have00:18:25
already been sanctioned have nowhere to go00:18:30
before Ultra people, you have no00:18:34
problem getting yourself that tax00:18:36
residency that you need, but if you are00:18:39
Ultra rich today, then you00:18:41
understand that at any moment they can00:18:43
freeze them, they say God bless them with00:18:45
taxes we’d rather sit in Russia where00:18:47
we have Well, we hope We hope they don’t00:18:50
take away anything and we hope that they don’t freeze00:18:54
Coast Coast00:18:59
By the way, physicists began to decline00:19:01
before it was 80% of the market Today it’s00:19:04
already the last 72 statistics question where00:19:09
did they go Where did they go they just didn’t00:19:12
go anywhere collective investments have slowly begun to work,00:19:15
in particular00:19:17
legal entities, everyone is talking about this00:19:20
gigantic overhang of 40 trillion rubles, this is00:19:23
a lot at high rates, we00:19:25
understand that at the end of the year we will have00:19:27
5 more trinos at least at this rate Yes 400:19:30
s according to how long they will hold But they00:19:32
will appear where they will probably go Partially00:19:34
to the market Partially to real estate00:19:36
hello real estate skeptic and so on00:19:39
Partially in deposits It all depends on00:19:41
what the rate will be but everyone forgets00:19:43
How many deposits legal entities have A00:19:46
lot and we’ll talk about it By the way,00:19:48
speaking about investment ideas because00:19:50
legal entities holding colossal deposits,00:19:53
including ruble deposits in banks, they will receive a00:19:56
huge financial flow of income, this is a00:19:58
department of history, the rate is high now The00:20:01
company is returning to dividends Well, who are the00:20:04
biggest crybabies in the market,00:20:06
metallurgists, we all know what a00:20:08
hard life they have, how their state robs them00:20:10
they all like to cry, this is00:20:13
true. However, last year the metallurgists did00:20:16
not pay dividends, which NLMK recently00:20:18
told us they are ready to pay, we calculated the00:20:21
dividend yield there using different00:20:23
methods, calculating from 112 to 13% I don’t00:20:26
really know how the guys calculated it 13 I00:20:29
was talking there in one place I say 11 and 200:20:30
no, no, you’re thinking wrong. Well,00:20:32
let it be 13 I don’t mind, that means00:20:34
Vladimir Lis Well done 13 Well, the thirteenth00:20:38
yield at such rates, the old man would have said that it’s00:20:40
a sin, he would have said00:20:43
the following:00:20:44
while interest rates on deposits00:20:47
are higher, all your dividend yields00:20:49
that are lower are uninteresting but there are nuances00:20:52
As they say, therefore, rates will00:20:54
decrease sooner or later. I think by the00:20:56
end of the year we will see the thirteenth strike00:20:58
somewhere like this, but the dividend yield00:21:01
was there today and tomorrow, and therefore00:21:03
this is also a tool for fighting inflation.00:21:05
So, dividends will go on.00:21:08
liquidity, look what we00:21:11
get, we have several00:21:13
sources. How are the components of00:21:16
Marxism, so here are several sources00:21:18
from the components of this liquidity.00:21:20
The first is, in fact, our budget,00:21:23
which forward with songs of hurray hurray, so to00:21:25
speak, gives a mountain plus 20%00:21:28
relative to the year honestly I’ll say all the00:21:30
economists when they looked at the forecasts00:21:32
they said Oh mom, well, we’ll have a deficit,00:21:35
someone calculated that there will be 500:21:37
trillion, someone 10 trillion, everything00:21:39
will be bad, I calculated Well, in the00:21:42
worst case, well, 4 from 5 somewhere around two -three00:21:45
will be taken from the National Welfare Fund and the rest Well, a little bit00:21:49
due to devaluation00:21:51
I thought I talked to economists, they00:21:53
were of the opinion00:21:57
that in reality And in00:22:00
reality in reality it is00:22:02
unique What are we talking about?00:22:06
Budget revenues are really growing very strongly,00:22:07
and not oil and gas and00:22:10
oil and gas with oil and gas, everything is clear,00:22:13
incomes have grown rapidly due to the00:22:15
rise in oil prices eur, we have00:22:18
71 plans written down in the budget Now 7879 Middle00:22:22
East everything is here It’s clear by the way,00:22:24
accordingly the Sokol brand is getting higher and00:22:26
so on That is, this is an additional00:22:28
increase in income you say Well, of course they00:22:30
don’t receive payments now Yes, payments are a00:22:33
complete disaster, I talked to the00:22:35
guys today, they alone have rupees hanging there, they do00:22:38
n’t know what to do, someone has00:22:40
Egyptian pounds hanging, someone there has00:22:43
problems with Chinese banks Yes, we00:22:45
have such a problem and any00:22:47
A financier will tell you that today the most00:22:49
important problem is to get this00:22:51
money and deliver it, but this is a00:22:54
technical problem. This is a question of costs.00:22:56
Well, in particular, for00:22:59
many currencies, for example,00:23:01
restraints are up to00:23:03
30%, this is crazy. This is really a00:23:06
lot, but this is for exotic00:23:08
currencies, so Well, it’s hard but00:23:10
nevertheless, taking into account the rise in prices, the budget is00:23:13
coping with not oil and gas revenues00:23:16
have grown even more surprisingly00:23:18
everything is fine with the budget What is the budget the00:23:20
budget pays state employees the budget pays,00:23:22
so to speak, defense enterprises00:23:24
that work in three shifts This means that all00:23:25
limits and incomes have increased sharply Well,00:23:28
the participants understand it they also receive00:23:30
very serious money and there is a lot of it,00:23:33
respectively, this is a large wave of00:23:34
liquidity that00:23:36
our budget provides. Secondly, as I already said,00:23:40
deposits only in physics are 40 trillion,00:23:43
friends, this 40 trillion means plus00:23:46
there’s also 4 5 6 I don’t know how many trillions00:23:48
there will be in a year But objectively they will be00:23:51
through interest Yes, but there are also deposits,00:23:53
as I said, legal entities, this is a huge amount00:23:56
of money. How much of this money00:23:59
goes to the market Well, different thoughts, someone thinks00:24:03
that there is no more than 200,300, there are 40000:24:06
billion, someone says I don’t know more,00:24:08
but as I understand it these factors and00:24:11
plus another very important factor are00:24:15
dividends, which I have already mentioned, 500:24:17
trillion is expected this year, a little00:24:18
later there will be more details about this 500:24:20
trillion rubles I wanted to say dollars are00:24:24
expected And we have the sun but said 5 trinos00:24:27
reaped00:24:29
dollars so here are00:24:31
5 trino rubles will also be included in dividends00:24:34
Okay, now we count in full Well, let's do it00:24:38
later Who thinks there is a trillion00:24:41
conservatively, some two, some three So00:24:43
what is the capitalization of our00:24:46
stock market Who00:24:48
knows 60-odd00:24:50
trillion rubles00:24:58
are traded We have a very small fleet00:25:00
number of shares in circulation00:25:02
accordingly, these new ones are one and a half to two,00:25:04
maybe 2 C5 trillion, a lot00:25:06
depends on the reduction in rates, they will come to the00:25:09
market. And if they come to the market, do you00:25:11
know how many issuers we have?00:25:15
Yes, it’s just twice that we have only00:25:18
about 250 issuers trading on the market,00:25:20
why now everyone let's run to the00:25:22
IPO market, we'll talk about this separately, this is a00:25:24
very interesting topic, the prospect of an IPO,00:25:27
so that's what there00:25:29
was00:25:30
a comment Okay No, I will answer all the00:25:34
questions if there is something, well, you can00:25:35
interrupt, it's not scary, I won't be scared00:25:37
after all, I teach students, they always00:25:39
ask what- Well, sometimes I00:25:41
start answering, I go off somewhere into the distance, but00:25:43
I come back. I haven’t gone into insanity yet,00:25:49
look, dividends will come to us in the end,00:25:51
that is, all this money will00:25:53
influence capitalization very, very00:25:56
seriously, well, the expectation, so to speak, of the00:26:00
government party that it will be more 60%00:26:02
there is 6% of our GDP Yes, I think it00:26:08
could be more. Why but because a00:26:10
closed sandbox, capitalization is a00:26:13
function of price and the number of shares is everything.00:26:15
Why can’t our prices shoot up00:26:17
like yesterday,00:26:19
so I won’t be surprised by the00:26:22
EU with this capitalization not by the end of the year,00:26:28
maybe already in the year, and00:26:31
6% of our VP is approximately 10000:26:36
trillion rubles These figures are00:26:39
beautiful, but this can really be00:26:42
accordingly, the potential, you and I,00:26:43
friends, is still very, very large and when they00:26:46
recently asked me Well, that’s gold00:26:48
So it grew from 1600 to 22 Well,00:26:52
it just happened then when I saw00:26:55
this breakthrough, we clearly00:26:58
understand that this is very, very serious,00:27:00
this breakthrough in gold and Probably it’s00:27:02
not over yet Why do we remember00:27:05
what I said, we need alternatives00:27:07
Let’s go further with you00:27:11
undervalued Well, to be honest, a huge00:27:13
number of companies are trading at00:27:15
multiples that come and00:27:17
go let’s talk about one thing Inter, another00:27:19
thing is that energy is an area00:27:21
that has always been inexpensive, but00:27:23
nevertheless there are nuances, our market is really00:27:26
inexpensive relative to many ry we00:27:29
have seen growth that e Well,00:27:32
the restorer of the impulse there is stability00:27:34
in the economy, my analysts have00:27:36
prepared a presentation for me, the word00:27:38
stability, you will say, he’s gone completely crazy,00:27:40
this Kogan. Well, really, what kind of stability is that in the bathhouse?00:27:44
We don’t know what will happen00:27:46
tomorrow, it’s true, we really don’t00:27:49
know what will happen tomorrow, but if we00:27:50
look back at00:27:57
what, but a surplus, first of all, in the00:28:00
balance of payments. Surprisingly, we expected something else. Well,00:28:03
imports have also been tightened. Clearly, it has become00:28:05
quite difficult to buy everything, but00:28:07
nevertheless, the balance of payments is in order, so a00:28:09
stable ruble, someone there foreshadowed00:28:11
us that the ruble will fall, of course, but 12000:28:16
150 no, maybe 95 maybe 98 maybe 10200:28:20
but you know in our life maybe we’re looking at00:28:22
102 we’re talking Well okay thermo That is, if the00:28:26
rates are on the sixteenth and the devaluation00:28:29
is within 5 there’s 10% well it seems00:28:33
like it’s Tolerable Well, this will probably be00:28:35
discussed separately, that’s all friends00:28:38
All these factors are very00:28:39
serious factors for the growth of our market And00:28:42
now Let’s go specifically So we00:28:45
see physics Well, I’m going to say00:28:47
banal things now, but you all know these, a00:28:49
huge number of new accounts, you00:28:51
will say that there are much fewer active ones,00:28:53
yes it’s true but I I think that by the end of00:28:55
this year there will be at least five active accounts,00:28:59
excuse me, just how many there are 3% of00:29:01
our population, I think it’s rough Yes, from the00:29:04
active you say we should count well00:29:06
there, how many we have active 70 million, but00:29:08
still it’s not enough, it’s very little in the00:29:12
American market even on the Polish00:29:13
market, but there are much more active accounts.00:29:16
Therefore, I think that in a few years of00:29:18
active accounts we will have00:29:21
about 10 ml, this is a sulfur fact, here we are,00:29:27
our debt market is growing, which is00:29:29
surprising at such rates, but00:29:32
nevertheless, you know I am shocked, the number of00:29:35
placements is normal, the number of those who00:29:38
raised money is normal, but at00:29:41
crazy rates, many refuse,00:29:43
talking to the owners of a number of00:29:45
serious public companies, they say00:29:47
that we are better than our own at such a yield, we00:29:49
’d better buy back our bonds from the market, we do00:29:50
n’t want to, so to speak,00:29:52
refinance new money in the companies00:29:55
and we’ll see how00:29:56
unique this is, but it’s true,00:29:58
so despite everything, our00:30:02
debt market is also growing not00:30:04
so long ago, I remember there was a conference in00:30:06
1919, Oleg Vladimirovich Deripasko was sitting on the line,00:30:09
Oleg Vladimirovich Deripasko was dressed, and00:30:10
he crushed everyone, he said that In general, our00:30:13
debt market should double and it is00:30:16
unacceptably small, not much time has passed.00:30:19
Our debt market has really00:30:21
doubled and there is half - This is an increase in00:30:24
government debt, which is not very good but not00:30:26
fatal yet. Although having become high in00:30:28
servicing, Vasya will tell you00:30:30
what a nightmare in terms of servicing rates00:30:32
for sure in America and this00:30:34
budget deficit that needs to be financed is00:30:36
all true, but with such high rates,00:30:38
in general, it won’t be very easy for us soon.00:30:41
But nevertheless, the budget plans00:30:44
to finance the budget by00:30:45
borrowing 4 trillion weather,00:30:48
by the way, many there said guard guard00:30:51
horror horror the RGB index began to fall again00:30:55
Why But the Ministry of Finance borrowed00:30:58
800 billion in the last quarter And in this quarter it announced that00:31:02
it would borrow E how many trillion is there Well friends00:31:07
So that was their plan, their00:31:09
plan was to collect 4 trillion00:31:11
so there’s nothing amazing00:31:13
But interest rates a little later So00:31:16
this is one reason for the increase in the number of players00:31:19
people come you know This is Amazing00:31:22
But even those who00:31:25
never thought about the stock market come, doctors00:31:28
a lot of doctors now turn to me00:31:30
and say Well, I have00:31:32
half a million I have 3 million I00:31:34
have 10 million doctor and 10 million is normal so00:31:38
you think we live, it turns out that00:31:41
people have money and they think00:31:44
that money Well, somehow it should00:31:46
work normally, so this is serious,00:31:48
this is growth, a new growth of layers of the population,00:31:51
classes in essence our Well, not a class,00:31:54
let’s say, probably, layers of the population00:31:55
who Previously didn’t even think about the stock00:31:57
market, thought about how to live until the salary00:32:00
Hello, microfinance organizations00:32:01
that are growing like00:32:04
this Well, I already talked about liquidity.00:32:07
Pay attention to the graph of the M2 money supply00:32:09
thanks to high rates and the00:32:12
central bank that squeezed00:32:14
liquidity is absolutely with terrible force,00:32:17
our money supply has begun to decline.00:32:21
This is, in principle, not bad. And this most00:32:23
likely ensures that00:32:25
inflation, the main inflation expectation, is00:32:28
actually declining in our country, you ask me, but00:32:31
then our Central Bank has not00:32:34
started reducing rates; they are afraid00:32:37
they understand what thing, on the one00:32:39
hand, friends, we have a real rate of 10%00:32:42
per annum, real, that is, 16 minus this is the00:32:47
most 6 expected inflation, Bloomberg00:32:50
generally thinks that this year we00:32:51
will have 500:32:56
ife, they really interfere with our economy.00:32:59
Why the Central Bank does not reduce the00:33:02
rate, the reason is very simple. the fact00:33:05
that inflationary expectations are indeed00:33:08
declining, we see an increase in tariffs, we see a00:33:13
whole series of problems, let’s say, and we00:33:14
understand that everything can change very sharply, the00:33:17
rise in gasoline prices, maybe,00:33:19
maybe, Well, apparently they came up with it,00:33:22
we’ll understand, we’re already used to it, it’s a good topic,00:33:25
but still less growth than strong00:33:28
statistics, I look at gasoline prices, but00:33:31
nevertheless it can be and we understand00:33:33
Why here As they say, everything is banal00:33:35
So, monetary liquidity, despite the00:33:40
decrease in the growth of the money supply, the00:33:43
Russian market continues to grow people are00:33:46
coming budget impulse Let's go00:33:49
further means real income00:33:56
you say which we have, uh, the real00:34:00
incomes of the population are not growing at all, the00:34:02
guys are growing, but everyone has00:34:04
their own inflation, I say again, the state employee has00:34:06
one, the businessman has another, which00:34:08
constantly flies back and forth and back.00:34:11
But nevertheless,00:34:13
uh, the real expenses are still growing00:34:16
and some Of this money, let's go to the market.00:34:19
Let's go further. Here are the numbers, but00:34:23
once again we can argue with these00:34:24
figures, but the income of the population is still00:34:27
growing here;00:34:37
I already said dividends and we talked about the00:34:40
fact that many companies plan00:34:42
to pay dividends and plan to pay00:34:45
quite fat dividends based on the results of the00:34:47
twenty-second year, 4.3 trillion rubles, based00:34:50
on the results of the 23rd year, you and I will have00:34:53
5.1 trillion rubles Well, a lot, really a lot00:34:57
we talked about this Let's move00:35:00
on, the next important point is00:35:03
oil 92 91 99 Well, Yul has already talked about this00:35:09
7879 what will happen next This is the most00:35:12
interesting question You see, here's the situation00:35:14
in the Middle East Well, another day Another00:35:17
week 2 more weeks Iran is already talking00:35:20
Keep me seven and now they’re00:35:22
holding seven of them, I didn’t lie, okay, don’t hold00:35:26
me like that. Let’s00:35:28
condemn Israel there, they’ll condemn them properly, and00:35:31
then I won’t give because00:35:33
condemnation is important to me. Well, they won’t judge creatively,00:35:36
but it hasn’t hit yet, so far the maximum can be00:35:40
said. The mountain has given birth a mouse stole an00:35:42
Israeli ship, or rather, it’s not00:35:44
Israeli, it’s English, but there seems00:35:47
to be an offer among the owners, this is an00:35:49
Israeli billionaire. Well, one way or another,00:35:52
you understand that any ship can indirectly00:35:55
press00:35:58
someone for piracy, cool, but the following is important,00:36:02
friends, the important thing is that the price of oil is most00:36:05
likely because of geopolitics, we wo00:36:08
n’t grow much China is unlikely to00:36:10
do anything with Taiwan, we’re not up to00:36:12
that now and he’s not ready for these clashes,00:36:15
he doesn’t need it China is waiting Will00:36:17
Trump won’t What does Booth’s relationship with00:36:19
America China think? about the new trade00:36:21
sanctions they are not allowed this00:36:27
will not last long is it true does this mean00:36:30
that it will go down someday probably yes00:36:32
probably yes this is one of the reasons that00:36:35
we have high oil prices but this is not the00:36:37
main thing the main thing is the economy everyone00:36:40
expected decline in China according to estimates of00:36:44
China's development Well, somewhere again there will be growth of 48 5% And00:36:48
this means demand for oil And this means00:36:51
very interesting oil consumption00:36:53
will gradually increase00:36:58
barrels per day now 98 in my opinion This is00:37:01
already a lot, this is a lot and global00:37:04
production cannot cope Americans00:37:07
bought their funds, their savings bins have00:37:09
now stopped because they are00:37:11
expensive, but they still have to have a00:37:14
shortage there, which means they will go lower and will00:37:16
buy again and this is a Trigger for raising00:37:18
prices. In short, I don’t want a protrusion00:37:22
cantem who00:37:26
burn are unlikely to fall in the near future00:37:29
Unless there will be a sharp stagnation00:37:32
of the economy, this may happen, but we will00:37:34
monitor the numbers until this is not the case, now the00:37:37
reporting season is starting in America. So, with oil prices, everything is00:37:40
more or less normal. Let's move on.00:37:43
Well, about high rates, I said that00:37:45
it is possible that00:37:47
these rates will also be lead to the fact00:37:50
that there will be a new wave of money You understand,00:37:52
when a wave of money comes crashing down on you Well,00:37:55
it’s strange if the market is not growing Let’s go with00:37:58
you00:37:59
further now boom, this is the most00:38:04
interesting thing I’ll probably talk about this in00:38:06
a little more detail because00:38:08
for many it’s a question of whether to invest in00:38:11
Should I invest in what should I do with this,00:38:14
look friends, everything is very simple,00:38:17
we take it and figure it out, you never00:38:21
need to do anything in the crowd, everyone ran00:38:24
Why what an interesting company00:38:28
Let's go to frh Let's look at the00:38:31
company in detail Let's look at the00:38:34
prospects of this company and further00:38:37
Now the life hacks begin,00:38:40
first they attract money like sh or sh00:38:45
and this is very important as we know, for00:38:47
example, the borrower spent according to the principle sh00:38:51
is Money is not in the business but Money is for the shareholder00:38:55
ode to00:38:56
acne a sacred right he can take00:38:58
the money and sell his shares and not do00:39:01
additional missions But you need to know this Besides,00:39:03
I’m not criticizing But in this case, they00:39:08
took away the annual dividends some time ago, again00:39:09
the owner has the right to take it But this must be00:39:12
known and taken into account on the other00:39:15
hand, if I know that the money is inside, I00:39:18
must understand But in fact, where are00:39:20
they going? For example, the situation with a00:39:23
company with the romantic name00:39:25
Eurotrans is absolutely clear to me.00:39:28
This company had large debts.00:39:31
Why were there large debts? And I like00:39:34
this reason; the guys understand that00:39:37
electric gas stations will rise in00:39:39
price; everyone knows the difference in margins00:39:42
between electric gas stations. the usual00:39:45
end times and who knows the efficiency of the00:39:49
margin of refilling our coffee 800:39:59
for accelerated fast charging power00:40:01
stations that respectively00:40:03
provide fast electric charging are00:40:07
excellent Then for me the most important00:40:09
question is how much of their sales volumes today are00:40:13
sales of electrics because this00:40:16
will sharply increase their margins00:40:18
so far not enough yet I don’t look much at the Numbers AF,00:40:22
it shows the number of these Nara with Kache Xiu,00:40:27
by the way, I was overtaken by a stunning Tesla of00:40:29
some unimaginably00:40:31
iridescent color, someone gave it to the girl,00:40:33
and so, well, there was a pretty girl sitting there.00:40:36
No need for comment, here I have a wife00:40:39
in the hall, no need to be careful then00:40:41
I’ll get it with a rolling pin on the head, so that’s the meaning,00:40:45
look, it’s become fashionable to give00:40:48
electric trains to girls, it’s fashionable now how many00:40:52
beautiful electric trains are there. Yes, I myself admire00:40:54
these new Chinese electric trains00:40:56
all the time. It’s new. It’s interesting. I’m of course a00:40:58
conservative. I’m fine, but I’m00:41:00
sitting down, I think, damn, recently there’s some kind of00:41:03
the train drove me there, everything was quiet, so00:41:05
amazing, I think I can buy it too, so00:41:07
now everyone is thinking about it, and00:41:09
seriously, the growth rate of electric00:41:13
cars in our country is growing much faster00:41:16
than planned. The guys have plans, then I00:41:18
’m talking about this, it’s already interesting, that is, they00:41:22
will have sales volumes exactly like that this00:41:24
electrical part is growing00:41:27
now little by little, but they will grow, they bet00:41:29
on it, that is, they had a00:41:31
large debt due to the fact that they00:41:33
leased this equipment where they00:41:35
allocated their 13 billion, by the way, I also00:41:38
really liked the topic00:41:40
refueling, pull up shares, buy I say I’ll buy it, I have a00:41:43
million rubles lying around in my pocket. I00:41:46
bought it here. No, honestly, I00:41:49
can show Pioneer, but I’m not selling these00:41:52
shares. What is the name of the prospect of this00:41:54
company? It’s clear. So, I’m where the money went00:41:58
in; they lowered the debt burden; it’s good.00:42:02
I see what’s next; this is not an advertisement;00:42:04
honestly, Pioneer. Although I’m interested in me00:42:08
I have their shares, so look,00:42:12
they are going to make green bonds.00:42:14
It’s clear. On the train, again, I do00:42:16
n’t like it emotionally, but00:42:19
I like it from a perspective point of view.00:42:21
Then, probably, yes, I liked this IP00:42:25
very well. Sovcombank00:42:28
likes it, first of all, in00:42:30
their development very much they probably have a lot of money. And00:42:32
by the way, I wanted to say that they will definitely00:42:34
buy someone. They took out a home loan, so I00:42:38
think they will continue to take it.00:42:40
Moreover, I am convinced that the number of mergers in the00:42:43
banking sector will00:42:45
grow rapidly in our country. Why00:42:48
look, Sberbank has taken the path of creating00:42:51
its own a separate division that00:42:54
develops digital platforms,00:42:57
anything you like little by little, Sberbank00:42:59
became not just a bank. And fintech is00:43:02
so good, but you understand that as it00:43:06
grows, as00:43:10
these transactional business incomes of00:43:12
banks go away, it means they have to become00:43:14
more and more fintech What will00:43:17
banks do? Buy up fintech companies00:43:20
that will provide this is a hint of00:43:22
who makes fintech00:43:24
companies. They will buy this in order to do it00:43:28
like ntech because other00:43:29
multipliers. I00:43:38
understand that today they00:43:40
are an object for the absorption of someone and00:43:43
those who have a lot of money And we have a lot of people00:43:45
who have money Yes, again, it’s full of00:43:48
just rich people Ultra-highs00:43:50
whose amount of space with terrible00:43:53
force will not be a prize Show there00:43:58
projects I understand that we We’re not talking00:44:01
about millions of rubles, about millions, but not not00:44:05
rubles and not millions, but tens or00:44:07
even hundreds of millions, you understand, this is a00:44:10
very interesting00:44:11
thing,00:44:13
then I lead projects in different countries and I00:44:16
simply address my viewers to clients,00:44:18
I say guys, if you have a desire, here00:44:20
you go. There we do that - then And that’s why00:44:22
I get calls from people who have money, they are00:44:25
interested in these projects, you understand. Therefore,00:44:28
I think that the number of IPOs in our00:44:31
country will grow, the question is who will00:44:34
come out, this is important with us, it is very important00:44:36
To assess the second very important point00:44:39
Which sectors, but no less important how they00:44:42
will produce this business, that is, cash00:44:45
in or cache, watch this is important, the00:44:48
next important point I want to00:44:49
figure out why companies are entering the00:44:52
market, well, it’s clear to raise money, and00:44:56
they are selling Casa 2 3 4 5% of their shares00:45:00
Well, somehow It’s not enough what kind of money there is, but00:45:04
you see, for many, entering the market is the00:45:08
emergence of a new essence of public shares00:45:11
with which you can What can you do to pay00:45:14
for the acquisition of new morality as soon as a00:45:17
company arises, the goal of which is to enter the market to00:45:19
make their shares liquid00:45:22
relatively, at least in order to00:45:23
simply absorb shares through the acquisition,00:45:25
exchange of shares all this is interesting, the00:45:29
next topic is00:45:31
management incentives for me this is a very important00:45:33
argument if a company makes an00:45:36
incentive program for management and gives them00:45:38
shares or options at least on shares.00:45:41
This is serious. Previously, in Russia this00:45:43
was not a lot, today it will be massive.00:45:46
Therefore, I’m saying it again for It’s an00:45:48
extremely important point for me when analyzing IP00:45:51
to understand in depth Why do the guys00:45:54
go to I this is a very interesting point00:45:57
Another interesting point which of you00:46:00
only honestly knew about the Kaluga00:46:03
Distillery a year ago That’s honestly00:46:07
correct, not a single woman Although by the way00:46:10
they make these jokes by amara This is00:46:13
all what we love and they do it all00:46:14
beautifully Kaluga distillery00:46:18
bam in the top ten bam with00:46:20
these copies of well-known good00:46:23
brands But NOC really captured you00:46:26
understand00:46:28
today it’s generally a fantastic00:46:31
tool for both loyalty and00:46:35
marketing Well prosoft okay We all,00:46:38
at least the professional participants, know it well,00:46:40
I’ve known this company since 201000:46:42
when we00:46:44
bought the software,00:46:49
but00:46:56
now we’re comparing them, you understand what a00:46:58
colossal marketing tool it is00:47:01
when we take all these factors into account, Toms00:47:04
understand that for many people the way out is00:47:06
not today take Money vyat Money in the00:47:10
future I’m very interested in analyzing00:47:12
this If the guys came out d-promi00:47:16
Well now the central bank won’t like my Passage00:47:18
But we understand the00:47:21
less liquid the market is, the more possible00:47:25
for the muns and the00:47:28
central bank really doesn’t like it00:47:30
so when we talked, so to00:47:32
speak, with representatives of the exchange and00:47:33
asked a question Guys, what is the00:47:35
minimum liquidity, how much is the00:47:36
minimum you need to exit Here is the00:47:38
minimum mini Mora Well, in general, it’s a billion00:47:43
Well, Okay there, well, maybe half a billion, the00:47:46
guys understand that the less friflo,00:47:48
the more opportunities for these here00:47:50
our dear Rondo, whom we naturally don’t00:47:54
like We look attentively at our actions00:47:56
Well, why not watch, we all00:47:59
understand everything perfectly well, and finally00:48:02
now the IP factors are the growth of interest in the00:48:06
stock market We all discuss these00:48:08
borrowers, all the scum there, we discuss these00:48:11
Kaluga factories, everyone shares, here I am00:48:13
here he made money on the dia software, he just00:48:16
bought it, so he00:48:22
waved, what to buy, what not to00:48:25
buy, Eurotrans,00:48:28
buy and not buy, not Ole Sosem is00:48:31
now a discussion in families Well, I’ll be00:48:34
honest, I’m coming home, tired as a dog,00:48:37
Give me my bowl of soup and I’ll go00:48:39
to the side, I’m tired, I’m coming00:48:43
mother-in-law Zhenya, but here I00:48:47
got dividends from such and such bonds,00:48:58
then we’ll figure out what kind of bond00:49:00
there is for 5 10 15 rubles, you must buy it,00:49:04
that is, people are drawn to knowledge, even00:49:06
such, I won’t say, backward layers of the population,00:49:08
on the contrary, my mother-in-law is advanced, but00:49:11
nevertheless she criticizes everything, watches all00:49:13
the programs That is, she’s great for me So00:49:17
I’ll make a good advertisement00:49:21
normally I’ll00:49:25
sell an investment product to whom I00:49:27
show first because for me00:49:30
it’s an indicator interesting not interesting about00:49:32
me the woman describes everything in detail00:49:34
this is bad This is good This is very00:49:36
serious at home they criticize this is cool,00:49:39
well, let's move on, it means about this, so00:49:41
again we00:49:43
stuck it somewhere, we talked and00:49:45
talked Why and where to00:49:47
look Well, in principle, I already said a hundred00:49:51
Why is the interest today00:49:55
for companies? This is today a way out to00:49:59
raise money for development because that,00:50:00
well, it’s impossible to borrow at 20-25 per annum.00:50:04
Okay. But there is one philosophical law: not00:50:07
the cheap cheese that is in00:50:10
Maslovka. The fact is that each of the00:50:13
business owners understands. Cool00:50:16
thing. Now I’ll take free money,00:50:18
they usually turn out to be the most expensive. A00:50:21
large number of your00:50:22
future partners come. and each partner00:50:25
says, listen to the killer whale and the reporting00:50:27
Show the servant dear And you00:50:30
wrote out such good bonuses for yourself instead of00:50:32
paying me dividends And the00:50:34
top managers of the company who carried out the I are sitting00:50:37
and thinking Why the hell did we do this,00:50:39
the word can go away So not every thing is00:50:42
cheap, so to speak which seems00:50:45
cheap at first glance. I’ve already talked about the image.00:50:47
Let’s move on to marketing.00:50:49
Now let’s talk about who the VC can be00:50:53
drawn from. The00:50:55
AFK system is a definite00:50:59
driver for the development of shares, but we00:51:02
always know that the value of the holding is00:51:04
discounted relative to the value of00:51:06
each asset, but no less, it’s still00:51:08
interesting, but my interest is a little00:51:11
different. I look at the sectors that are00:51:13
emerging and you know, for example, the same00:51:16
decay that plans finance fintech.00:51:19
Okay Sokolov jewelry Well, that’s probably00:51:25
interesting Sokolov’s store, they00:51:27
really have prices rising in every hole.00:51:29
And since this is a democratic product Well,00:51:32
probably they have to look Well, apparently the00:51:35
indicators are growing bifarm00:51:38
medicine Well, people who have money00:51:41
use the services of medicine more, this is00:51:43
understandable, paid, who are ready to pay for it,00:51:44
logically interesting MTS00:51:48
MTSbank actually recently announced everything is00:51:51
going to I this is interesting you understand MTS00:51:55
by the way We understand the Group It is00:51:57
part of this and accordingly MTS it is Well,00:52:01
really not formally, accordingly MTS00:52:03
also attracts money as well as a huge00:52:05
number of assets from the same group00:52:08
Medsi medicine steppe the same group00:52:11
agriculture you understand what00:52:13
a spread and what shocked me Cosmos Hotel00:52:16
Group Tourism Tourism also goes to IP and00:52:19
why and because Sorry, while we00:52:22
are sitting we are counting how much a tour to00:52:24
Turkey to Egypt to Thailand costs us, we are00:52:27
switching to domestic00:52:31
tourism, my daughter and I are now discussing the00:52:34
question of where she will go back and forth or00:52:37
maybe she will go take a walk in St. Petersburg, she00:52:39
earns a great job and she counts00:52:41
the money, so that’s why I think that the00:52:44
hotel business and B2B business will also be00:52:47
very very interesting. So let’s00:52:49
see what time we have left.00:52:51
Yeah. So I feel I need to speed up. There’s00:52:54
actually very little time,00:52:57
so in short I have decided on the sectors, that00:53:00
is, we see now, friends,00:53:03
a large number of potential00:53:05
issuers and the largest number of00:53:07
industries, so to say that this is only the00:53:09
military commissar who makes money. There are no00:53:12
niches and these niches are filled by those who00:53:15
accordingly want to go out and who are looking for00:53:17
money, so the00:53:27
horses who are planning go out00:53:30
here in the hall My colleague with whom we00:53:31
only meet is with00:53:33
potential guys and you know00:53:35
a lot of the IT sector, a lot of this and00:53:38
It’s clear We are all switching to Russian00:53:40
it But if someone thinks that this is a trend00:53:43
This is only it No these are service00:53:45
companies, logistics companies,00:53:48
anyone and everyone. Tom of00:53:56
our oil price index. I think everyone00:53:59
already understands metals. Well, who00:54:03
cried the most last year Oleg00:54:05
Vladimirovich, the same dere00:54:07
pas Why the price of aluminum is00:54:11
minimal, respectively, for Rila00:54:13
nickel dividends doesn’t pay horror horror00:54:16
Especially since Debt load Who doesn’t00:54:18
know Rusala family Yabeda a lot a lot00:54:21
really very debt-laden company Okay00:54:25
What’s going on Rusal00:54:28
letn Why and because00:54:31
aluminum prices have grown about so well00:54:33
how much they have grown 12 to 15 percent00:54:35
so far it’s nothing so far this is not a00:54:38
way out of the low range, it must00:54:40
break through somewhere around 2500, maybe 260000:54:43
to really get out. Well, some levels are00:54:45
more or less comfortable for Rusal, but00:54:48
nevertheless there is a trend, prices for00:54:51
aluminum are rising, prices for copper are rising, we all cried 800:54:56
tons that's all nine already nine have already00:54:58
interestingly approached nine and pierced it,00:55:01
maybe copper And this is good for someone Well, there are00:55:03
various copper companies and, above all,00:55:06
Rila Nickel is one of the largest00:55:08
media producers. We are also00:55:10
interested in nickel, not everything is so simple00:55:13
Indonesia is hitting it very hard00:55:14
very hard so now I00:55:17
would probably hold it, but it would hardly be possible to00:55:19
increase the stake by nickel,00:55:21
but will Nickel pay00:55:23
dividends? Good question, especially for the00:55:26
Russians, we understand this. Let's move00:55:29
on, what will happen next? God00:55:32
knows, but if PA actually reduces the00:55:36
rate in at the end of the year in the middle of the year I don’t00:55:38
know, we’ll see for now the inflation is puch00:55:41
obviously the prices for komodi if the world is00:55:44
about to pass This fear of a recession you will say00:55:46
that everything is lost soon there will be a recession but I’m00:55:49
not sure00:55:52
nemi00:55:55
Inta then the possible prices for kotis00:55:58
will also rise Let’s go further so00:56:03
well Russian stock market in principle,00:56:06
I have already said that we have a00:56:10
large number of deposits, it is growing, and00:56:13
short-term deposits are also growing, this00:56:15
is the increase we have in 2020 versus00:56:17
23, so I think00:56:19
that a lot of money will go there, I’m talking about this,00:56:21
so I don’t want to stop, I’m00:56:23
quick I’m running through what with the flocks Let’s00:56:25
talk a few words about the rate I’ve already00:56:28
said that the tenth rate is real - This is00:56:31
prohibitive to what extent the Central Bank is00:56:34
really ready to reduce the tribute00:56:37
Even now, but for now they don’t see00:56:39
the possibility, I’m quite objective, we00:56:41
understand Everything can change, but00:56:43
nevertheless I I’ve already talked about this, I repeat,00:56:45
I think that by the end of the year we will see an00:56:47
interest rate of 13 If we’re lucky, then 12, this is00:56:51
interesting for bonds and many people will00:56:53
probably want to throw a tomato at me now because00:56:56
this Kogan who said00:56:59
we’re buying bonds Well, yes While the00:57:01
rgbi index of Russian government bonds is declining00:57:04
This true Why was there a revaluation at the end of00:57:08
that year, that is, there was a sharp00:57:10
expectation of a decrease in inflation, so00:57:12
the yields of our zher, in other words, OFZs00:57:16
were at the ten-year level below 12%,00:57:19
now they can still get a little closer to 14,00:57:23
in my opinion, they are unlikely to fall lower, it’s difficult to00:57:26
predict anything here, so Well00:57:28
government bonds even at 14 at our00:57:33
ST rate, well, it’s not clear whether it’s worth taking or not, that is,00:57:36
it’s risky maybe now00:57:38
maybe there in six months I don’t know00:57:40
to blame in a month maybe so00:57:43
Although it seems to me that there wo00:57:46
n’t be any more strong falls And you can take a long one but00:57:48
this is very risky I immediately say00:57:50
long OFZ because as soon as the00:57:52
Central Bank just starts talking about the fact00:57:54
that it is starting to lower interest00:57:57
rates, I think about this, that00:58:00
our ten-year yield will immediately go00:58:02
from 13 and 7 there to 13, respectively, these00:58:07
0.7 increase in the decline in yield for00:58:10
ten years they will give approximately taking into account the00:58:12
coupon right away and five percent growth is00:58:15
a lot in the bond market, you understand Well,00:58:18
these are simple statistics If you want, I00:58:19
’ll Explain why for such passages00:58:22
By the way, my mother-in-law is killing me Zhenya So you00:58:23
did the calculation on the air, looked at the stars,00:58:26
named the number I say Listen Well It’s00:58:28
not my fault that you give me these formulas, it’s00:58:29
the duration, I think it’s incomprehensible to the people.00:58:33
Zhenya, the people are demanding the people if you don’t00:58:36
understand. I’m ready to decipher everything in questions and answers.00:58:38
Honest Pioneer, I wo00:58:40
n’t00:58:41
hide anything. So, well, let’s move on, which means a00:58:45
reduction in the rate. I think it will be00:58:47
about 300. basis points and for00:58:50
corporate bonds Pay00:58:52
attention, the index of which00:58:54
has not decreased at all due to high yields. I00:58:57
think that they will be able to give us. Don’t00:58:59
forget they have a duration. About00:59:01
four 4-5 Well, even below four,00:59:05
respectively. I think that they will00:59:07
eventually grow in this way that their price increase and00:59:10
at the same time coupons will give approximately00:59:13
22-25 per annum in rubles. Once again, I say00:59:16
this is a very cautious point of view00:59:18
because the position of the Central Bank is still00:59:20
conservative. Now those who are00:59:23
conservative are those who are afraid00:59:26
that the Central Bank may hold the interest rate for a long time.00:59:28
I understand this point of00:59:30
view. Moreover, there is an opinion that they00:59:33
can still raise the rate so great00:59:36
friends there is a great tool fleet00:59:38
fleet corporate tied to the00:59:42
blame to the key rate not the00:59:44
key rate Key rate 1600:59:47
these here in the fleet by the way, deny00:59:56
than lo per annum Compare with a deposit is another01:00:00
thing, what if they rates will go down Well,01:00:02
yes, they will also be lower. Well, as they say,01:00:05
you can keep some part of the portfolio there.01:00:07
If someone wants to01:00:08
play it safe, so there are options.01:00:11
So, now let’s talk about the DK spoon, here01:00:15
we talked about how great everything is now the01:00:17
Kremlin dreamers will say he is there01:00:21
in01:00:23
some way in I am perfectly aware of our risks,01:00:28
what is our main risk, well, the main risk is01:00:31
that we found out that even01:00:33
shares purchased on the stock exchange are a01:00:36
creative question, somehow they bought there cunningly,01:00:39
slyly squint, apparently, and were bought with a01:00:41
slyly squinted somehow illegal, that01:00:44
is, in itself. This practice,01:00:46
friends, is a disaster and this risk, if01:00:49
implemented in large volumes and in a01:00:51
more systematic manner, is a very serious01:00:53
risk and investors will think whether01:00:56
they should again bring their money to the stock01:00:58
market and all those positive ones the things I01:01:00
talked about could slow down, this01:01:03
could be a very serious risk I Well,01:01:06
I think that’s enough on the topic of this risk,01:01:08
otherwise I’m telling myself a lot of01:01:11
good things Let’s go further, it means, well,01:01:14
high lending rates Yes, in01:01:16
case the Rates do not decrease Well,01:01:19
this is also our risk market But this is a risk that is01:01:21
understandable Geopolitics, well, the main01:01:25
question of geopolitics01:01:26
is the sets of sanctions we swami01:01:29
spoke yesterday in one respected group01:01:31
asked Well, what other sanctions can be01:01:34
soldered on us I say Well, first of all, I01:01:37
won’t give any explicit hints, but there01:01:39
are options, there are very options are01:01:42
unpleasant for us, so we wo01:01:44
n’t tell them. But what everyone01:01:46
knows and what everyone was afraid of are sanctions on the01:01:49
NCC; sanctions on the exchange; there may01:01:52
be01:01:55
sanctions on our brokers; I won’t name our01:01:59
brokers who work abroad;01:02:00
everyone knows them;01:02:02
sanctions may be imposed01:02:05
on those brokers from the Emirates of other01:02:08
countries who work with Russians01:02:10
may be imposed may be imposed,01:02:12
we also need to know and take this into01:02:14
account. So, infrastructure risks,01:02:17
possible strengthening of the ruble for01:02:20
exporters is not the most pleasant01:02:22
news, but it is unlikely Is it likely that we will01:02:23
still have the ruble, one way or another, a certain01:02:25
amount of percent will01:02:28
devalue the01:02:31
tax authorities’ calculation for themselves? In the plan, we’ll collect01:02:34
half a ruble instead of01:02:39
fines. What a delight, that is, remember01:02:42
how there are some Komsomol sisters. What01:02:45
disgusting. These are01:02:47
these half a fine in fines, but this it’s really01:02:51
unpleasant and if anyone wants01:02:54
details, we have a lot of people01:02:56
who will tell you how they paid these01:02:58
fines. So yesterday, realizing my01:03:01
social responsibility, I recorded a01:03:04
video about the fact that you need to pay taxes.01:03:06
Moreover, even after raising this scale.01:03:10
Well, here taxes will honestly not be01:03:12
so deadly, so I’m not01:03:14
going to enter into a discussion now. If there are01:03:16
questions, I’ll answer on a progressive scale. Well, yes,01:03:20
yes, this is unpleasant, but if we compare01:03:23
Sweden with Canada with Germany and so on,01:03:26
you know, somehow it becomes more fun,01:03:28
then I’ll say ours again Ultra highs01:03:31
Well, they’re not going anywhere, they’ll pay01:03:32
their 25%, especially after a certain01:03:35
value, that is, the effective rate there01:03:36
will be around DTI and probably lower than DDT,01:03:41
that is, well, not lethal relative to the01:03:43
whole world. Well, you can honestly pay01:03:46
all this. Well, it’s clear that01:03:49
unpredictability with the labor market, this is a01:03:52
very serious moment for us01:03:54
indeed.01:03:57
I, as an employer, will honestly tell you that01:04:00
I have a delegation of comrades led by01:04:03
members of our trade union committee, but I laugh at01:04:05
the trade union committee, but those who express interest01:04:07
regularly in my office Borisovich01:04:10
need to raise your salary Masha Grisha01:04:12
Pet and me justify I understand where I’m01:04:15
going to get a good specialist to drag away01:04:17
I have to pay more more and the01:04:21
god diso01:04:27
good specialists and the money is paid to them is01:04:29
often exorbitant Why is the shortage of01:04:32
simply high-quality labor01:04:34
extraordinary In all industries and01:04:37
related to the military Commissariat With anything guys01:04:40
This is just a01:04:41
disaster So, let’s move on to I’ll01:04:45
quickly run through to the sweetest one, then I’ll01:04:47
probably answer better in the answers, which means01:04:49
if we talk about the actions of the Not the01:04:53
second Womb of the01:04:56
Gan conference Well, give me something from the01:04:58
second echelon, something like that, I’ll01:05:00
say now we have a large hall here01:05:02
And for tomorrow the day after tomorrow in Monday01:05:06
Oops who is the manipulator Kogan has dispersed the01:05:09
shares so friends I will be very01:05:11
careful01:05:15
that there is everything there is normal but01:05:17
nevertheless I will be very careful and I01:05:19
urge you If you buy something there01:05:22
Think about what liquidity is and don’t01:05:25
chase after any price understand gold01:05:27
too interesting, probably 2500 will be01:05:30
interesting, but what’s the rush?01:05:32
That is, I had a discussion01:05:34
with my asset managers yesterday, gold01:05:36
flew like an arrow to the top and I was just01:05:39
yelling Why is there little gold in the portfolios01:05:41
[ __ ], so to speak, increase the locations for01:05:43
gold on the barik there on foreign01:05:45
accounts yuman there bito Gold kins Why are01:05:48
you increasing it so little And then I came01:05:51
yesterday so there it has grown a lot according to01:05:53
these come on, come on, come on, let's01:05:54
quickly sell it a little Let's01:05:56
fix it Boris, did you change it, so to01:05:59
speak, changed your shoes I I say no, just01:06:01
not at any price when I have it In a day In01:06:04
two they can grow like this and it will01:06:06
fall again, we’ll buy Borish So you’re01:06:08
speculating01:06:18
as a word to recommend This is wrong01:06:21
But why follow Yes, indeed01:06:24
the pole I think that the price is01:06:26
higher and the pole of gold These are probably colleagues01:06:28
already they said this is the most01:06:30
efficient gold mining company in the world,01:06:32
the most efficient in terms of margins in01:06:34
everything. Therefore, I believe that everything01:06:37
will be fine at the pole. Now the evil gold01:06:39
producers, I will also01:06:41
talk about the Yugos, so01:06:43
look at what’s happening with the gold producers.01:06:46
Why is the price of gold rising01:06:48
little by little? grew And what is it01:06:51
with our shares, gold production stood01:06:54
still Why in recent years01:06:57
their margins have fallen very much due to01:07:00
rising costs But this rapid01:07:02
rise in gold prices has led to the fact that01:07:05
their margins began to grow, you know, it’s01:07:08
just, well, it’s understandable this is mathematics,01:07:11
so I think that the potential of01:07:14
Western companies such as Barik Newman01:07:16
there is bit Gold kr and other small01:07:19
companies that we can buy either the01:07:21
shares themselves or through derivative01:07:23
instruments, even leveraged ones, is very dangerous. But01:07:26
nevertheless, they still have01:07:29
enough potential big one right next to the stock. They01:07:31
stood there, as if they weren’t growing, but now01:07:34
they’ve flown faster than the rise in01:07:36
gold prices. Yes, it’s interesting Sberbank. I already01:07:39
said that the banking sector is doing well01:07:41
and most likely its income this year01:07:43
will be more than 3 trillion. In general, of course, the01:07:46
bankers are a disgrace earn that kind of01:07:48
money now it was necessary to01:07:50
talk about social justice but the poison of01:07:54
time Well, it’s clear that growth in turnover is01:07:56
good for the stock exchange, a new IPO is good01:07:58
for the stock exchange, Everything is clear here Severstal01:08:01
they started is the most efficient01:08:03
company from the metallurgy sector, perhaps01:08:05
the most efficient today in Russia and they01:08:07
pay already dividends and will apparently01:08:09
pay therefore In my opinion it may01:08:12
also be interesting as NLMK and probably01:08:14
MMK Tatneft Well, the most interesting joke is01:08:18
that they paid 100% of the01:08:21
profit in dividends Or maybe it01:08:23
will continue to be so I don’t know Here I’m not sure But the fact01:08:25
that high oil prices So I01:08:27
think that both Tat oil and Bash oil01:08:28
everything will be fine in principle. Well,01:08:31
now let’s go over some particularly01:08:34
interesting ideas, controversial,01:08:37
each of these ideas is controversial. I’ll be honest right away.01:08:41
GK Well, let’s just say that she has there are many01:08:44
controversial factors, but I like the fact that01:08:47
this company is quite marginal and01:08:50
that this company can really01:08:52
show that it has a lot of risks. I’m just01:08:54
running around Europe for a little while now,01:08:56
so but nevertheless, I01:08:58
think it’s interesting and especially01:09:01
if the price01:09:03
of gold will continue to grow01:09:06
and high inflation, again, this is a positive01:09:09
for gold. So, I think that this is an01:09:12
interesting company that may become01:09:15
more expensive in the future. Such a wonderful01:09:18
company as01:09:19
Samaraenergo has just reached the01:09:21
dense second01:09:24
echelon. Why do I like this company?01:09:26
In general, traditionally with us The01:09:28
energy sector is very cheap, but there are01:09:30
serious reasons for this. It can stand there for a year or two or01:09:32
three. The problem is different. One of01:09:35
these companies recently took cash from them. A01:09:38
wild amount of01:09:40
cash they have in their accounts, so they01:09:42
took it and paid dividends. if01:09:45
Samaraenergo, taking into account the money that they01:09:47
have on their balance sheet, pays dividends of at01:09:50
least 50% of the profit, they01:09:53
really have a lot of money and profitability.01:09:56
This is a risky idea. It’s not a fact that they01:09:58
will, but it’s worth paying attention to this,01:10:01
again, if they tear Zavra01:10:02
Monday at the price don’t rush, do01:10:05
n’t rush, I don’t want hype, but this is01:10:07
interesting precisely because of the cache on the balance sheet.01:10:10
What else do we have Samaraenergo? I meant01:10:12
pref, of course. Pay attention,01:10:15
that is, this is about the money box. That is,01:10:18
they have 5.3 billion rubles at capitalization01:10:21
companies of about 17 billion is01:10:24
interesting, but I don’t like Aeroflot01:10:28
Plato is my friend but the truth is more expensive01:10:30
Aeroflot I don’t like I have a01:10:33
very big personal grudge against him And believe me the01:10:36
reason is more than serious but as I01:10:39
say Plato is my friend but the truth is more expensive01:10:41
indicators in particular of Aeroflot Very01:10:45
good this is a fact and apparently the01:10:47
risks will continue to grow; colossal,01:10:50
firstly, the risks that they will not01:10:52
quickly receive new aircraft, we know01:10:54
ms21, we know that it is not so easy to introduce01:10:57
and plus the risk of the fleet becoming obsolete, the risk of01:11:00
anything, I don’t want to say, but01:11:03
nevertheless this risk is high, the second risk is01:11:05
high interest rates, the third01:11:07
risk is a possible increase in fuel prices,01:11:10
but the company’s efficiency is growing before our very01:11:11
eyes. We don’t like these companies because of the01:11:14
additional mission, so to speak. But judging by the01:11:16
additional mission, they don’t seem to be there anymore01:11:18
will be Therefore, probably Aeroflot as an idea01:11:21
I’m ready to01:11:22
support said a bunch of this is crap but the01:11:26
Air Force still recommended01:11:27
It’s funny now it’s still a very not obvious01:11:30
idea but nevertheless it seems to me that the01:11:33
Asha metallurgical plant is now a01:11:35
good entry point and their products are01:11:37
in demand especially today without01:11:40
details01:11:41
So now01:11:43
interrao interrao friends I’m interested01:11:47
not in the dividends that they can’t even01:11:50
pay, but in the gigantic cash that01:11:53
they have in their accounts. The fact is that01:11:55
the Kubishka there is a colossal01:11:59
553 billion rubles more. Rub the rubles in their01:12:03
money accounts, you understand it’s really a lot of01:12:06
what they will do with this money,01:12:08
distribute something - then I don’t believe, maybe there will01:12:10
be dividends, but rather, this01:12:12
money will be a great object for mna,01:12:15
then a great topic for mna. That is, I’m01:12:17
just waiting for them to buy someone,01:12:19
buy something, this could be very01:12:21
interesting and that’s why this company and01:12:23
please look at how01:12:25
cheap it is in terms of its multipliers NS 0301:12:28
uh really bad 01 Well, the truth is the company is01:12:33
insanely cheap Which means sooner or later01:12:35
it has a chance of growth so the energy industry01:12:39
always behaves very unpredictably and01:12:41
uninterestingly But it’s too painful It’s cheap and01:12:43
Probably this is the main reason why I01:12:45
would pay attention to her. Well, now01:12:48
our friends from the crystal, honestly, I01:12:51
liked the owner. I interviewed him. He’s a01:12:53
cool guy and I think that he01:12:56
will implement his plans. He’s01:12:58
insanely expensive today, according to the01:13:00
multipliers that were at which01:13:04
he was released, but he was paid this money.01:13:06
for his grandiose plans If01:13:08
his plans really work out I01:13:10
think that this will be an interesting company01:13:12
Well, and the software, I already said Why is it01:13:15
primarily the growth of the market itself it is the growth of01:13:17
orders I think that the company is very01:13:19
effective, old good and its sun01:13:21
will be01:13:23
great Zhenya I won’t do01:13:26
advertising. If you want, have a look,01:13:28
download it, maybe you’ll like it. I want at01:13:31
least 3 million of our 5 million01:13:34
who work in the Russian01:13:36
market to have it. We tried to do01:13:38
something better than just this. A regular01:13:40
paid service. Well, such an application has01:13:43
push notifications and trading some ideas signals01:13:46
a lot of analytics there is the word01:13:48
analytics every day Well and so on a01:13:50
short minute of advertising friends I01:13:52
chose a little extra time for the report01:13:55
so we have less time to answer01:13:57
questions I’m ready to answer any01:13:59
pressing Questions01:14:02
[applause]01:14:07
Thank you Oh, what a horror We have about 5 minutes,01:14:09
about 1001:14:12
maximum. Let's quickly get the microphone and01:14:16
head across the field of metal, look. I do01:14:20
n't have much of an idea because in general there are01:14:23
no silver companies, so to speak,01:14:25
but he seems to have sold01:14:26
his business. I don't know to whom. Therefore,01:14:29
honestly I don’t quite understand the prospects,01:14:32
another thing is that I understand that on the01:14:33
Kazakh stock exchange the turnover immediately01:14:35
increased sharply, maybe it will explode no idea, I01:14:38
really don’t buy it yet I don’t hold it01:14:40
Honestly, let’s continue Good afternoon Can I01:14:44
also ask the speakers a question, some of them01:14:46
have already asked the company would like to hear your opinion01:14:47
VK And it’s clear that there is01:14:51
no pound, but according to philosophy, let’s say so for01:14:53
six months. Sven’s company, due to01:14:56
objective reasons, is also behaving incomprehensibly,01:14:59
either falling or growing, there are01:15:01
insights that supposedly they want to01:15:03
buy something from ozone, not from ozone. Well, it’s clear01:15:06
management has problems with management01:15:08
colossal But in this case the price is01:15:10
also like that, well, not bad for entry01:15:13
Well, I would like your opinion01:15:15
Yes, thanks for the question, friends, I’ll be honest,01:15:19
this is a company like a business that01:15:21
generates cache today, any company01:15:23
is a business that generates a cache machine is01:15:25
more efficient less efficient01:15:27
is better distributing this is worse from this01:15:30
point of view, looking from this point01:15:31
of view, the company is not very interesting, I’m01:15:34
looking at something else. What if tomorrow we don’t have01:15:37
YouTube, who is01:15:40
the beneficiary, that is, like insurance,01:15:44
you run a Youtube channel Yes, and you want01:15:46
insurance if something happens, God forbid Well then01:15:48
you hold VK like this But01:15:50
honestly, I’ll tell you because of this, I keep it in my01:15:52
portfolios as insurance, here’s a frank01:15:54
answer01:15:55
Thank you Let’s move on Good afternoon,01:15:59
please tell me that in recent years, with the01:16:01
growing interest in investments among the population, a01:16:04
huge number of different01:16:06
bloggers and online schools have appeared that teach01:16:09
trading and invest and honestly,01:16:13
from my own experience, I can say I went01:16:14
through three of these until I found an adequate one in01:16:17
which they really teach something about how to forgive the01:16:19
X. Do you think aphids should introduce01:16:23
KATO or be held responsible for01:16:27
what some people talk about01:16:28
investments and at the same time Well, they are fooling the people01:16:31
actually, thank you very good question,01:16:34
look, well, it’s generally so to speak01:16:36
Let’s call it This I don’t want to call01:16:38
this word let’s call this info Jews So01:16:40
I don’t know the FPS, whatever you want, look01:16:43
gentlemen This is a niche the people01:16:46
rushed in those people who read01:16:48
two or three four books worked for01:16:50
another three days somewhere And let us right01:16:52
now Well, we know how to speak beautifully, I do01:16:55
n’t want to throw tomatoes at anyone I01:16:57
think this shouldn’t be done in the end01:16:59
we need to respect the fact that01:17:01
people are working, they’re sitting and say on the01:17:03
stove soon Komi Give us this but I01:17:06
just look at the regulation, this is how you01:17:09
will regulate them according to the principle of01:17:11
what01:17:13
educational qualification I don’t know from experience01:17:16
in the industry, maybe that’s why01:17:20
here,01:17:25
what did this person do in life, specifically,01:17:28
not where did he sit at the table? What did he do in01:17:31
life, he spent some time that quantity I01:17:34
Probably he understands this, he’s sitting in this01:17:36
room. My colleague he worked as the01:17:39
chief SOZ of Alfa Group, he worked in Ana,01:17:43
he worked in other companies in top01:17:45
positions. I understand that it’s interesting for me to talk to him.01:17:48
Ok, he’s a professional,01:17:50
we can argue professionally. What is he01:17:55
talking about?01:17:57
Well, look at the experience of these people, where01:18:02
they actually worked, what they did.01:18:04
Okay, you say, but what about the professor, she did01:18:06
n’t really work anywhere, she01:18:08
read smart books, wrote smart01:18:09
articles, please filter, look,01:18:12
but you’re interested in practical01:18:15
advice practice, look for practitioners, look for01:18:18
those practitioners who lost money01:18:21
in their lives and got burned01:18:25
and therefore, well, they probably understand how01:18:27
painful it is and understand what ethics01:18:29
responsibility is and so on, but this is my01:18:31
point of view. That’s probably how to01:18:33
filter. That is, those people who have a01:18:35
large audience do nothing it means there is01:18:37
one well-known blogger with a huge01:18:39
audience of many millions that I01:18:42
see are my courses, so to speak, they are01:18:44
sold there. Handsome guys have changed there, you won’t01:18:46
come there, but I know it. I ask him how01:18:50
Roma doesn’t have the virtues of those that she01:18:53
with something I don’t understand what she’s in in offices01:18:56
she worked as someone, and so on, it doesn’t matter. I don’t01:18:58
want to throw away tomatoes again. I’m talking01:19:00
about the following. I’m talking about the fact that look01:19:03
at the experience of people and what exactly they01:19:05
did then from them. You can01:19:07
probably learn something, again, not a fact. Well,01:19:09
somehow so thank you, let's move01:19:11
on Good afternoon, tell me, on01:19:14
Friday there was a rapid rise in gold and01:19:19
subsequent01:19:22
correction, what's the question,01:19:25
but you, I'm not to blame,01:19:28
no, should we expect another01:19:31
correction or is this what01:19:34
we were waiting for first question and second, based01:19:37
on the rapid growth on Friday,01:19:40
what levels do you expect until about the end of01:19:43
the year? Thank you, good question, look,01:19:46
we should generally keep an eye on the technology,01:19:48
it shows this gradual growth, everything is01:19:50
great, but when does this01:19:53
crazy needle start? Run away from it, so,01:19:55
by the way, I was fixed01:19:56
It was fixed a little, but nevertheless it fixed01:19:58
a little and the shares of gold producers. And01:20:01
most importantly, it fixed these double typhus,01:20:04
marginal typhus for gold,01:20:06
it’s really so because01:20:08
the margin said it’s better to undercut on such growth01:20:10
usually After such a needle there is a correction for01:20:12
how long. Well, look, there are a number of01:20:15
reactive papers, there is a needle then drawdown01:20:17
then a new needle to tell you whether the01:20:20
new needle will be in gold now or not I don’t01:20:22
know, I can only say one thing01:20:25
I think that this year the level of 2500 is01:20:28
quite achievable, so I’ll tell you carefully01:20:31
whether this means that after a correction there01:20:32
for $100 it’s worth buying right now01:20:35
shares of gold producers01:20:38
are possible because their efficiency, their01:20:40
margins are simply growing and these01:20:42
jumps Well, in principle, on average, the01:20:44
price of gold is still growing, this is interesting.01:20:46
Therefore, I think that shares of gold01:20:49
producers are interested in marginal01:20:51
products. Wait, wait until, let’s01:20:55
say technically, the sun01:20:57
calms down a little when the volatility in this01:20:59
asset decreases, then you should01:21:01
enter, you should enter at a lower01:21:03
volatility. Why do I like a number of the ideas01:21:05
that I showed you know why But01:21:07
well, nothing special01:21:10
happens there. I like it when nothing01:21:12
happens, it stands quietly quietly and01:21:13
then to the women, just like gold was01:21:16
quietly, quietly, little by little, then to the women,01:21:19
something like this, so don’t Popeye to the women. Wait,01:21:21
let him calm down, let Tova01:21:24
settle, let him find his new01:21:27
price, any product doesn’t matter, the crisis, what01:21:29
’s going on, bang, [ __ ], something has changed,01:21:31
what something flies Yes in that other direction01:21:33
Let the product settle let it find01:21:36
its price after that we'll see something like this01:21:38
thank you Let's go01:21:43
further Vasya will eat me Yes Evgeniy Boriso01:21:47
Good afternoon What is your ultimate goal,01:21:50
what do you strive for01:21:56
great pure01:21:58
love, look friends in fact,01:22:00
this is a very good question, look, well,01:22:04
I have a lot of children.01:22:06
I really want everything to be01:22:08
great for them. For example, I look at my01:22:11
youngest daughter, I’m proud of her because,01:22:13
well, she’s like herself, she works, she’s01:22:16
studying there in her third year at the institute01:22:18
at the same time works in her specialty,01:22:21
found the job of her dreams at the same time01:22:23
jumps there, Toli is dragging the horse on herself,01:22:25
or the horse is dragging her already there. Meter 20, in01:22:27
my opinion, it’s doing well, it’s cool. You see,01:22:30
this is great for me, so I guess what I want is that I want the01:22:32
kids to become people and01:22:35
achieve something in life, this is probably01:22:37
what you think, why did I become a professor, I have01:22:39
nothing else to do, I really01:22:41
have absolutely no time, I’m a candidate of01:22:44
sciences, I’m not a professor by title, I’m a professor01:22:46
by position,01:22:48
the tower invited me and said there are professorial01:22:50
positions, no matter how you want to be a01:22:51
professor at our department I say Well,01:22:53
I’ll be fine Why did my01:22:55
dad decide to wipe his nose My dad is an01:22:57
assistant professor I’m joking of course but nevertheless01:23:00
You see But in general I think that there are a01:23:03
lot of other interesting things, our markets are01:23:05
only growing when we first created This market01:23:07
And I was already the head of an01:23:10
investment company throughout the years and in01:23:13
the nineties. I was interested in01:23:15
creating it; it’s the same child who01:23:17
grows in your arms. This market is01:23:19
true. I was interested in01:23:21
watching this and observing its development of01:23:23
this child as well as my own. I do01:23:26
n’t want to be called upon that it was me no01:23:28
God forbid the company under my leadership where I01:23:32
was with the owner it created a01:23:34
stock market in particular of the second tier Yes it was01:23:36
like that It was very interesting01:23:38
some of these antes are now no longer01:23:41
traded some are traded interestingly so01:23:43
I’m interested I’m interested in life I01:23:45
'm crazy interested in what will happen next01:23:47
That's how you know my father is 83 years old,01:23:51
he's so alive, running around in the01:23:53
mornings, constantly sending me some kind of01:23:56
garbage There and so on, he's interested in01:23:58
Living You see, this is probably the main thing01:24:00
I want to be interested in Living this is the main thing01:24:04
thank you thank you01:24:09
[applause]Description:
Евгений Коган на PROFIT CONF: Рынок будет расти, революция в финансовой системе, инфоцыгане. Телеграм-канал Евгения Борисовича: https://t.me/bitkogan Ютуб канал: https://www.youtube.com/@bitkogantalks?si=0qzTUOi2-ruHBe3D Мобильное приложение Евгения Когана: https://fan-finance.com/?referrer=appmetrica_tracking_id%3D172890974098295531%26ym_tracking_id%3D8138337876301360307 Телеграм каналы PROFIT: Основной канал – https://t.me/+TQ4eA-FPlbEyMWEy Every Day – https://t.me/+Fhjw5xhiceNlZTgy Global – https://t.me/+mEkBhHkiw0ljNzQy Таймкоды: 0:00 Вступление 2:00 Российский рынок: полет нормальный 3:03 Принципиальные изменения в глобальной экономике и финансах 14:47 Фондовый рынок РФ: индекс "Мосбиржи" 17:42 Ключевые причины роста рынка 28:41 Господство "Физиков": приток клиентов Мосбиржи 32:02 Огромная масса ликвидности: рост денежной массы 33:45 Огромная масса ликвидности: рост доходов населения 34:33 Дивиденды: многие компании вернулись к выплатам после 2022 35:00 Высокие цены на нефть и металлы 37:42 Причины бума IPO на российском рынке 37:52 Почему бум IPO - это хорошо для рынка? 49:50 Почему IPO - это хорошо для компаний? 50:48 IPO: итоги 2023г. и взгляд на 2024 г. 53:17 IPO: какие сектора перспективны для размещения? 53:52 Связь рынка РФ и глобальных commodities 55:28 Что будет с commodities дальше? 55:59 Российский рынок акций: каковы перспективы? 56:23 Российский рынок акций: что дальше? 1:00:10 Ключевые риски российского фондового рынка 1:05:06 Топ-5 инвестиционных идей среди "фишек" для фондового рынка РФ 1:08:33 Идеи в акциях второго эшелона. "Южуралзолото" 1:09:13 Идеи в акциях второго эшелона. "Самараэнэрго"-преф 1:10:24 Идеи в акциях второго эшелона. "Аэрофлот" 1:11:23 Идеи в акциях второго эшелона. "Ашинский МЗ" 1:11:41 Идеи в акциях второго эшелона. "Интер РАО" 1:12:43 Идеи в акциях второго эшелона. КЛВЗ "Кристалл" 1:13:12 Идеи в акциях второго эшелона. "Диасофт" 1:13:22 Спасибо за внимание! 1:13:57 Ответы на вопросы 1:14:48 Мнение по ВК 1:15:59 Регулирование трейдерской деятельности инфоблогеров 1:19:15 Ожидать ли еще коррекцию по золоту? Какие ждать уровни? 1:21:46 Какая у вас конечная цель? К чему вы стремитесь?
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