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Russian
00:00:00
This is Avdiivka - a small city in south-eastern
Ukraine that is currently a hotspot in the00:00:06
Russo-Ukrainian war, and the focus of Russia’s
main offensive efforts.00:00:10
Avdiivka is a heavily fortified frontline
settlement, complete with trench systems,00:00:15
firing positions, and concrete-reinforced
bunkers.00:00:19
And these days, it’s one place on the frontline
where you definitely don’t want to be assigned00:00:24
if you’re a Russian soldier.00:00:26
On October 10, 2023, Russian forces attempted
to encircle the city of Avdiivka and cut off00:00:32
its supply lines, sending a huge wave of tanks
and armored personnel carriers in a surprise00:00:37
attack designed to overwhelm the area’s
defenses.00:00:40
The attack…didn’t exactly go as planned.00:00:45
Ukrainian defenses were dug in deep, and almost
the entire wave of Russian attacking forces00:00:49
was annihilated, with reports ranging from
dozens to over a hundred Russian vehicles00:00:54
being destroyed in a single day of fighting,
and with very little progress for Russia to00:01:00
show.00:01:01
After its initial assault, Russian forces
didn’t quite take the message.00:01:05
Continued attempts were made to encircle the
city, at first with more vehicles, and then00:01:09
with continuous unprotected infantry waves
once the Russians realized how quickly they00:01:14
were losing equipment.00:01:15
Within a few months, by the end of December
2023, the losses had become truly devastating00:01:21
for the Russian army, making it one of the
deadliest battlefields of the entire conflict.00:01:26
U.S. sources, using a combination of drone
and satellite imagery, were able to confirm00:01:31
over 13,000 Russian casualties here, along
with 411 pieces of destroyed Russian heavy00:01:37
equipment that had been lost over the course
of the battle.00:01:41
Ukraine, for its part, was considerably better
off, suffering a few thousand casualties,00:01:47
or around a 1 to 5 loss ratio when compared
to the Russians.00:01:51
As for military vehicles, the loss ratio was
over 1 to 10, as the Ukrainians had lost just00:01:57
30 pieces of heavy equipment compared to Russia’s
loss of over 400.00:02:02
These skewed numbers are very telling, and
truly staggering, but they didn’t appear00:02:07
out of thin air.00:02:09
The reason for the Ukrainian success was simple
- they had the defensive advantage, and were00:02:13
able to resist the waves of Russian attacks
from afar, using a combination of artillery00:02:19
strikes and drone attacks to blunt the vast
majority of the assaults before they ever00:02:24
even came within range of Ukrainian trenches.00:02:26
And when Russian forces did manage to get
up close, they found themselves facing one00:02:31
of the most heavily fortified cities in all
of Ukraine, one that has been digging in its00:02:36
heels since at least 2014, and an area that
has more experience than most when it comes00:02:41
to resisting Russian advances.00:02:43
So, why, you might ask, is Russia so intently
focused on taking this city - willing to bear00:02:49
a 5 to 1 loss ratio, and lose staggering amounts
of heavy equipment, and yet to continue pushing00:02:55
soldiers into the funnel?00:02:57
And why attack a place that is so heavily
fortified, instead of using those same forces00:03:01
against a softer target, for more meaningful
gains?00:03:05
The answer lies only partially in the city’s
strategic importance.00:03:09
As a fortress city, Avdiivka is located right
next door to nearby Russian-occupied Donetsk,00:03:15
a place that has been a center of the Russo-Ukrainian
war since long before Putin’s more famous00:03:20
invasion of 2022, and which has been at least
partially occupied by either Russian soldiers,00:03:26
or Russian-backed separatists, or both, since
all the way back in 2014.00:03:32
Due to its close proximity to Donetsk, a city
that once had a population of nearly a million00:03:38
people, but has since become one of the fastest
depopulating cities on the planet, Avdiivka00:03:43
has been described as a “gateway” to Ukrainian
operations in the region - one that theoretically00:03:48
gives Ukraine a foothold from which they could
launch artillery strikes or ground invasions00:03:53
against Donetsk city in a future counteroffensive.00:03:56
Avdiivka is also a frustrating position for
Russian logistics in the Donetsk region, one00:04:02
that makes the movement of Russian troops
and supplies in the area more difficult.00:04:06
And, if Russia wins here, it could theoretically
take pressure off of them so they can focus00:04:11
on other regions.00:04:12
So, there is some strategic military value.00:04:15
But while all of these things are true, most
of them are more or less true of any other00:04:21
position near the frontline, most of which
are much less fortified than Avdiivka, and00:04:26
would therefore be much easier for Russia
to capture.00:04:29
So, most military analysts believe that the
Russian capture of Avdiivka would not have00:04:35
a strategic impact on Russia’s overall war
efforts - or, at least not a significant enough00:04:40
strategic impact to justify the massive cost
that Russia is paying for it by sending wave00:04:46
after wave of men to try to capture it quickly.00:04:49
Instead, to discover the true reason why Russia
is so willing to batter its troops against00:04:54
Avdiivka’s defenses, one has to look a bit
deeper - and gain an understanding of why00:05:00
this city is so heavily fortified in the first
place - and why Avdiivka, not a significant00:05:05
military objective, is very politically significant
for Russia - something that they absolutely00:05:12
cannot end the war without capturing.00:05:15
This goes all the way back to the true beginning
of the war in Ukraine - a brief explanation00:05:20
of which will help you understand why Russia
wants Avdiivka so badly today.00:05:27
Contrary to popular belief, Russia’s war
against Ukraine did not start with Putin’s00:05:32
famous invasion of 2022.00:05:34
It actually started at least 8 years earlier,
in Crimea, and in the Donetsk region that00:05:40
Avdiivka itself is a part of.00:05:42
During 2014, following Russia’s invasion
and annexation of Crimea, Russia was making00:05:47
parallel moves in other regions of Ukraine
to distract Ukraine’s limited military forces00:05:52
and make it difficult for them to retaliate
- because, while Ukraine could prevent further00:05:57
Russian advances from the chokehold of the
Crimean peninsula rather easily, the same00:06:02
could not be said of much of their eastern
regions.00:06:05
To buy themselves time to fortify Crimea,
and time to enact demographic changes in the00:06:10
region that were more favorable to long-term
Russian control, Russia needed Ukraine to00:06:15
shift its focus somewhere else - somewhere
that they were more vulnerable.00:06:20
And Russia saw their opportunity in the form
of backing local separatist groups and inflaming00:06:25
them to become militant.00:06:27
As Ukrainian forces were planning how to respond
to the occupation of Crimea, which occurred00:06:31
in February and March of 2014, in April of
the same year, before Ukraine had a chance00:06:37
to make a move, separatist forces took advantage
of the crisis and began to capture Ukrainian00:06:42
government buildings in the Donetsk and Luhansk
regions, declaring them to be independent00:06:47
states.00:06:48
But even at these early stages, the separatists
made some key mistakes revealing their true00:06:53
identities, such as in Kharkiv, where protestors
stormed the local theater thinking it was00:06:58
the city hall - and revealing that while they
wanted to be seen as disgruntled locals, the00:07:02
vast majority of them actually knew nothing
about the local area or infrastructure.00:07:08
Mainly because they were, presumably, not
ethnically Russian Ukrainians, but actual00:07:13
Russians.00:07:14
This is seen by many as the true start of
the Russo-Ukrainian war - which began with00:07:19
armed separatists and undercover Russian operatives,
who were often one and the same, and an effort00:07:25
by Ukraine to recapture its territory from
Russian-backed control.00:07:29
And a major focus of the efforts took place
around the city of Donetsk, right next door00:07:34
to where the modern day battle of Avdiivka
is still currently taking place - something00:07:39
which, in a minute, you will see is very important
to this analysis and to understanding the00:07:45
significance of this city to the mind of the
modern-day Russian government.00:07:49
At first, it seemed as if the conflict might
be short-lived.00:07:53
By August, Ukrainian forces had recaptured
most of their territory, and the separatist00:07:57
groups, which were in reality extremely small,
were close to being completely defeated.00:08:03
But things then changed quickly.00:08:06
In response to the waning strength of their
new client states, Russian tanks and artillery00:08:10
then began to enter the Donbas - not in 2022,
but in 2014 - reinforcing and re-energizing00:08:18
separatist efforts.00:08:19
How many Russian troops entered the fight
is difficult to say, but Alexander Borodai,00:08:24
leader of the separatists in the Donetsk region,
once stated that 50,000 Russian “volunteers”00:08:30
had fought alongside his forces in the first
five months of the conflict.00:08:33
Other sources include OSCE observers, who
counted 30,000 people in military gear crossing00:08:40
over from Russia into the separatist regions
to reinforce them - and this was just at the00:08:44
two border checkpoints they were allowed to
monitor.00:08:47
The point is, Russians began to enter the
war - a lot of them - leading to a new, bloody00:08:53
stage of the conflict that had previously
been coming close to a peaceful settlement,00:08:58
and which would ensure Ukraine remained destabilized
so that it could not make strategic moves,00:09:04
like joining NATO to pre-empt an additional
Russian invasion.00:09:08
With these influxes of Russian soldiers, Ukraine
quickly lost much of the territory that they00:09:12
had managed to recapture by August of 2014.00:09:15
But as the fighting raged on, eventually,
the movement began to brush up against fortified00:09:21
cities - especially the fortified city of
Avdiivka.00:09:25
Unable to penetrate these fortresses, and
frankly being too scared to even try, the00:09:30
conflict became dragged into a standstill,
and the Russian-backed separatists were prevented00:09:34
from making further progress, becoming locked
into a frontline that still exists in many00:09:39
ways in the current day, with Avdiivka and
Donetsk at the forefront.00:09:45
In 2016, Ukraine then experienced its first
full year of losing no further territory,00:09:50
due in part to their strong positions at places
like Avdiivka, and the ability those fortresses00:09:55
gave them to exercise control over the surrounding
region.00:09:58
With the situation stabilizing, peace talks
then began once more, and a ceasefire was00:10:02
put in place - the tenth one of the conflict.00:10:06
But in a theme that you will see repeat itself
over and over in this part of the world, Russia00:10:10
could not allow a ceasefire to happen - because
peace in the region was not their goal.00:10:16
Russian-provoked separatists then violated
the ceasefire and attempted to take Avdiivka00:10:20
by surprise in January of 2017.00:10:24
They failed, and lost two of their top commanders
in the process, with a third being wounded,00:10:29
leading to a catastrophic impact on the chain
of command that never really fully recovered.00:10:34
Overall, after failing to take Avdiivka, the
separatist movement slowed to almost a halt.00:10:41
Following the failed attack, the casualty
rate of the conflict decreased drastically,00:10:45
falling to an average of one Ukrainian soldier
dying every third day, which then reduced00:10:50
again to a total of 50 Ukrainian soldiers
dying throughout all of 2020 - something that00:10:56
was looking more like local gang disputes
than a true full-scale war.00:11:01
Ukraine had made a show of force, and it was
working, slowly bringing peace to the region00:11:06
along with a series of treaties and reforms
that were empowered by that peace.00:11:10
For local separatists in Donetsk, those few
who were true separatists, and not just Russian00:11:15
operatives, Avdiivka became an infamous city
- one that would always need to be taken for00:11:21
them to accomplish their future goals, but
a city that they understood they themselves00:11:26
would never be able to take alone.00:11:28
Avdiivka became a symbol of continued Ukrainian
sovereignty over the area, positioned right00:11:34
on the front line, tauntingly right outside
the capital of the Donetsk separatist region.00:11:39
And as long as it stood in place, it was a
sign that Ukraine did not intend to give up00:11:44
on its territories, and that Donetsk could
not truly separate from Ukraine and join Russia,00:11:49
as Putin had hoped.00:11:51
It became apparent that the Kremlin’s goals
of annexing the region were not going to be00:11:55
met without further efforts.00:11:57
And the gains Russia had made to this point
were at risk of being lost.00:12:01
So in 2021, after the conflict had essentially
ended aside from a few embers that were now00:12:06
being put out, Russia once again began in
earnest to agitate the separatists into action,00:12:13
and began to go a step further, building up
tanks and snipers in the area around Donetsk.00:12:18
Finally, in 2022, when Russia decided to stop
pretending like it wasn’t involved, and00:12:24
launched its full-scale public invasion of
Ukraine, Avdiivka was one of its first targets00:12:30
- a city on the frontlines from the very beginning
- and still on the frontlines to this very00:12:35
day.00:12:36
Throughout the entire conflict, Avdiivka has
stubbornly held its ground - the fortifications00:12:40
that stopped the advancing separatists still
serving to stop the advances of the Russian00:12:45
army, at least for now.00:12:47
And without being captured, Avdiivka would
make it impossible for Russia to fully exercise00:12:52
its separatist agenda in the surrounding region
- not just for military reasons, but perhaps00:12:58
primarily for psychological ones.00:13:00
This is incredibly important - because it
speaks to an often forgotten aspect of what00:13:05
will happen if Russia does manage to win the
war.00:13:08
After the lines on maps wound to a halt, a
victorious Russia would then have to govern00:13:13
the regions it had captured.00:13:14
And to give those people a good reason to
submit to Russian control, they would need00:13:18
a plausible reason to portray themselves as
their liberators.00:13:22
This is something that is very hard to do
when you can still see the forces of your00:13:27
home country just a few kilometers away sitting
in a fortress - always with the threat of00:13:33
conflict breaking out once again.00:13:34
So as long as Avdiivka holds, Russia will
not be able to portray itself as a victorious00:13:40
power to the people of Donetsk, since, if
they fail to capture Avdiivka, they show themselves00:13:45
to be no more powerful than the original separatist
movement that called for Russian help.00:13:50
And those in Donetsk who remain loyal to Ukraine
will always see the nearby city as a reason00:13:55
to continue fighting in resistance.00:13:58
If the war ends with Russia failing to take
Avdiivka, the separatist people of Donetsk00:14:03
do not gain anything, but actually lose quite
a lot from Russia’s involvement, as all00:14:08
Russia will have managed to do from their
perspective is put an aggravated Ukrainian00:14:12
army at their border who they had previously
been coming to peace terms with.00:14:17
Russia may have gained other territories,
but that only matters for Russia - not for00:14:22
the people of Donetsk.00:14:23
And they will start to feel like pawns in
Russia’s game, like they really are, rather00:14:29
than a people who has been liberated by them.00:14:32
On the other hand, if Russia manages to capture
Avdiivka, it becomes a symbol that they are00:14:37
a liberating force that was able to break
through the barriers that had previously stopped00:14:41
the Donetsk separatists in their tracks.00:14:44
Russia needs these locals on their side if
they want their occupation to be successful.00:14:48
So they need to capture Avdiivka to give the
separatists a compelling reason to support00:14:53
them.00:14:54
This raises a few possibilities for Russia’s
seemingly irrational moves around the area.00:14:59
One plausible option is that Russia may be
attempting to capture this territory to put00:15:03
itself in a better position if they end up
signing a peace treaty where they are allowed00:15:07
to keep the Donetsk Oblast - a peace condition
that Ukraine has repeatedly denied, but which00:15:13
is still theoretically possible in the future.00:15:14
With Avdiivka, and the other areas it would
open up for conquest, Russia would be able00:15:15
to say that they fulfilled their goals and
liberated Donetsk.00:15:16
Without Avdiivka, such a peace treaty could
be a poisoned chalice for Russia, with unfulfilled00:15:20
objectives fresh in the minds of the Russian
people, and especially in the minds of those00:15:25
living in the occupied region that Russia
had supposedly liberated.00:15:29
So Russia may be desperately attempting to
take the city while they still can to prepare00:15:34
the way for the occupation of the region.00:15:36
Another plausible option is that capturing
Avdiivka is supposed to serve as a sort of00:15:41
election gift for Putin - giving him a strong
propaganda narrative where he could show that00:15:45
he fulfilled his promise and liberated the
ethnic Russians of Donetsk from supposed Ukrainian00:15:51
oppression, by deleting the city that had
previously blunted their movement’s forward00:15:56
progress.00:15:57
This would, of course, just be talking points,
and predictably Russian propaganda would skirt00:16:02
over the heavy cost at which the city was
taken, and the inconvenient fact that more00:16:07
ethnic Russians have died at the hands of
the Russian military trying to take Avdiivka00:16:12
than were ever threatened by Ukraine in Donetsk
in the first place.00:16:15
But the fact is, Russian propaganda could
hide those facts, and that means this would00:16:20
be a good narrative for Putin to continue
garnering domestic support for his war.00:16:25
The goal here wouldn’t be to help him win
an election, which is almost certainly already00:16:30
rigged, but to ensure that any motivations
for his opponents to form a coup were kept00:16:34
to a minimum.00:16:35
There are many other plausible options that
all fall along the same theme - capturing00:16:40
Avdiivka allows the Russians to show progress
and frame the war as a victory, and it’s00:16:46
especially critical to Russia’s ability
to show progress against their main objective00:16:49
- proving that the conquest of the Donbas
is possible.00:16:53
But whatever the specific intent of that propaganda,
whether for one, or all of these options,00:16:58
it is clear that political reasons have to
be the main intent behind the pressure on00:17:02
the city.00:17:03
Because from a military standpoint, the continued
Russian losses here simply make no sense,00:17:09
even if purely from a tactical point of view
for a government that doesn’t care about00:17:13
its troops on a human level.00:17:15
Russian leaders have said on several occasions
that they are in the war for the long term,00:17:20
implying that they view the war as a war of
attrition where they will trade troops, equipment,00:17:25
and ammunition in small battles, and ultimately
outlast the Ukrainian will and ability to00:17:30
fight.00:17:31
And this could be a genuine possibility if
Ukraine does not receive sufficient support00:17:35
from its western partners.00:17:36
But Russia’s actions in Avdiivka run counter
to this narrative.00:17:40
In a real war of attrition, a competent army
would constantly be trying to create opportunities00:17:45
to eliminate enemy troops and equipment without
risking too much of their own.00:17:49
For Russia, this could mean constant bombardments
from artillery, rockets, missiles, or drones,00:17:56
where in time, the sheer size of their economy
and the resources they have access to would00:18:00
outproduce Ukraine’s economy, and eventually
lead to a massive Russian advantage.00:18:05
In a true war of attrition, this kind of patient
approach would ensure that sufficient troops00:18:10
remained in place to exploit holes as soon
as they began to appear.00:18:15
But by assaulting Avdiivka, Russia is effectively
eliminating this advantage for itself by allowing00:18:20
Ukraine to continually wear down on its fighting
forces, and especially on its heavy equipment.00:18:25
Russia may not care about the 5 to 1 loss
ratio for their men because of the kind of00:18:30
people their leaders have proven to be, but
they should at least care about the 10 to00:18:34
1 loss rate of their equipment, something
that includes not just machinery that is difficult00:18:39
to replace, but also experienced crews that
cannot be quickly trained - crews they would00:18:44
need to press a tactical advantage in the
future.00:18:48
Based on these factors, some analysts, such
as Peter Zeihan, have estimated that Russia00:18:52
could keep up these rates of losses for a
maximum of 4 to 5 years.00:18:56
That might sound like a long time, but it
really isn’t - because it assumes the total00:19:01
exhaustion of Russian military forces, with
no capability being leftover for future campaigns,00:19:07
and no reserves leftover for defense, not
to mention other battles in the same war.00:19:12
When considering those factors, the current
burn rate of Russian troops is actually very00:19:17
unsustainable, and if Russia truly intends
to let this war continue on a long-term scale,00:19:22
assaulting Avdiivka the way they are is a
very foolish choice.00:19:26
So where does that leave us?00:19:28
My current personal opinion, which is of course
subject to change based on how the facts on00:19:32
the ground progress, is that Russia’s goal
is to try to take Avdiivka just before Putin’s00:19:38
election, no matter the cost.00:19:39
I believe they will then try to push as far
as they possibly can in the summer leading00:19:43
up to the 2024 U.S. presidential elections,
to sow the idea in the mind of American voters00:19:49
that the war in Ukraine cannot be won, with
the hope that this will then result in the00:19:54
U.S. ending support for Ukraine, and potentially
even the U.S. leaving NATO.00:20:00
Russia will then potentially sue for peace
based on its occupation of whatever territories00:20:05
it holds at the time.00:20:06
Then, if their peace terms are accepted, they
will reinforce, regroup, and attack somewhere00:20:11
else in the near future.00:20:13
That could mean further attacks in Ukraine,
or perhaps in the Baltic States if the U.S.00:20:18
leaves NATO, or somewhere else.00:20:20
But one thing this war has shown is that no
matter how costly it is for them, Russia’s00:20:25
leadership has not lost their appetite for
expansion.00:20:28
Putin only has so much longer to live, and
in the time he has left, he wants to build00:20:34
his legacy.00:20:35
It’s now up to western leaders, and their
ability to see their support of Ukraine through00:20:39
to the end, to determine what ends up happening.00:20:42
If western leaders do choose to offer sufficient
support, Avdiivka makes for a perfect trap00:20:47
for Russia.00:20:49
Ukraine could afford to lose control of the
city in whole or in part, but Russia absolutely00:20:54
cannot afford to let Avdiivka stand unconquered.00:20:58
And as long as that is true, Ukraine can continue
to pick off Russian forces here, and turn00:21:03
the war of attrition, something that should
be against them, into a situation that is00:21:08
vastly in their favor.00:21:09
If you’re a voter, it’s potentially up
to you what happens next.00:21:14
This episode was made possible by my supporters
on Patreon and my YouTube channel members,00:21:19
who continue to make the research and animation
in these videos possible.00:21:31
If you enjoy these videos, and want to help
support more of them, you can learn more by00:21:35
clicking the link in the description, or by
clicking the Membership tab on my YouTube00:21:39
channel page.00:21:41
The battlefield footage of Avdiivka used in
this video was provided by United24.00:21:48
For more first-hand accounts of the war in
Ukraine, visit United24’s YouTube channel00:21:51
using the link in the description, or watch
their video linked here.Description:
Special thanks to @UNITED24media. Check out their battle of Avdiivka video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=e-sGuIWJjf6ZHxc3&v=KRmMLAs6E6o Russian forces are pushing hard to take the Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka. But why? In this video, we do a deep analysis on Russia's staggering losses, including infantry, tanks, and heavy equipment. We talk about why Russia wants the city so badly, what Vladimir Putin's stake in it is, and how it all connects back to Russia's invasion of Crimea and the War in the Donbas. Please subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLnIL_Xw3dV-4TyKTp0LDUg?sub_confirmation=1 The Icarus Project on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/TheIcarusProject Merch Store: https://icarusproject.myspreadshop.com/ *Selected Sources:* Don't have time to read? Turn any source into audio with Speechify: https://speechify.com/?via=icarusproject For unbiased coverage of the Ukraine War, be sure to visit: https://ground.news/interest/ukraine-crisis#a_aid=icarusproject https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/15/ukraine-russia-war-general-winter-avdiivka-casualties/ https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-using-different-tactics-effort-110500529.html https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drone-video-avdiivka-902278b0f4cbad2d7dab7f5b79c80da8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Avdiivka_(2022%E2%80%93present)
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