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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:02
The day everyone warned about00:00:04
begins with a frightening00:00:07
[music]00:00:09
news China invades Taiwan00:00:12
Experts have00:00:14
already mapped out this war scenario They are predicting00:00:17
an invasion by China Bombings that will00:00:23
destroy Taiwan's navy and air force Zeus Chinese soldiers00:00:28
crossing the Taiwan Strait China has long had it threatened with00:00:30
annexation,00:00:31
they don't act as if Taiwan does00:00:34
n't belong to China. I think00:00:36
we can see that very clearly that00:00:37
states are coming together that want to rearrange the world map.00:00:39
It would be a00:00:41
war that seems far away, but it00:00:44
would have catastrophic consequences for00:00:45
Germany are open to blackmail, yes, we00:00:48
would have supply bottlenecks and we00:00:51
would have mass unemployment. A00:00:52
loss of the markets would cause serious00:00:54
damage to both economies.00:00:57
Hardly any country has made itself so dependent00:00:59
on00:01:01
China and that is the moment when, from a00:01:03
German perspective, you have to stop and00:01:05
say do we really want that still00:01:07
so because we are vulnerable how could00:01:11
it come to this we are looking for00:01:14
causes and answers in China in00:01:18
Germany and in Taiwan there is a00:01:22
way out of the00:01:23
[music]00:01:28
dependence00:01:36
[music]00:01:39
there are many warnings that something00:01:41
is going wrong, that the dependence on00:01:43
China00:01:47
The00:01:49
story of six-year-old Anton from00:01:51
Berlin and his doctor Malik Bötcher, who00:01:55
has known Anton for a long time, is a warning for us in Germany. He was00:01:58
someone who never really got sick00:02:00
and when he had a cold and a fever00:02:01
he still went to the playground to00:02:02
play At the beginning of May, Anton gets00:02:05
a serious infection. A television crew is00:02:08
currently filming in the practice and filming00:02:10
his visit to the doctor. We00:02:12
examined him and saw that he00:02:16
had bronchitis with a transition to actual pneumonia and then00:02:17
we decided to00:02:19
start antibiotic therapy and these00:02:21
antibiotics They were initially available in the pharmacy,00:02:25
but in too small a quantity and in too00:02:27
small a00:02:28
dose. There is not much that decides our00:02:31
lives. It00:02:32
can be a small tablet00:02:35
if it is there and you don't think00:02:37
about it if it is missing or, as with00:02:40
Anton, there is too little of it That's where it becomes00:02:44
dangerous, the reason for the shortage00:02:47
China is not supplying enough cephalosporins at this point in time,00:02:48
i.e. antibiotics00:02:51
and without China it doesn't work, so if00:02:54
the Chinese no longer give us anything00:02:55
in quotation marks then we are lacking00:02:58
cephalosporins and00:03:01
cephalosporins are very important, especially for serious infections00:03:04
very important that means people00:03:05
will die00:03:06
that's why there's no one to tell you00:03:09
don't worry soon the00:03:11
antibiotics will be available again the00:03:12
shortage will become the norm then the00:03:13
shortage will become the norm Bötcher00:03:16
is trying to avoid the dependency on China in00:03:18
this case by Anton00:03:21
treated with a lower dose00:03:23
but that doesn't work. Shortly after these00:03:26
recordings, Anton has to go to the hospital with severe00:03:28
pneumonia. He's00:03:34
dependent on China. That00:03:37
hardly worried anyone in Germany for a long time.00:03:40
The relationship was so00:03:42
unproblematic that we never00:03:44
had to worry about it00:03:46
could be used for us now00:03:48
but that's how we see that China has00:03:50
changed that's why we have to00:03:51
change how much China00:03:54
has changed can be seen in mid-October at the00:03:57
Silk Road Conference in Beijing00:03:59
shining side by side with a man00:04:02
who is wanted with an international arrest warrant00:04:04
Vladimir Putin's00:04:07
brutal war of aggression against Ukraine00:04:09
is no reason for Chi to stand back.00:04:12
On the00:04:15
contrary, all of these external factors00:04:18
are common threats and they00:04:19
strengthen Russian-Chinese00:04:24
cooperation. We have to00:04:26
stay outside and watch the opening ceremony like almost00:04:28
all Western media on three00:04:30
screens in the press center00:04:32
for Chi Is the Silk Road an00:04:34
instrument for expanding China's00:04:36
power and00:04:37
influence? China promises gifts and00:04:40
demands allegiance. Anyone who00:04:42
evades this threatens to do00:04:47
so. Anyone who sees the development of other00:04:49
states as a threat and00:04:52
economic ties as a00:04:54
risk does not live better and does00:04:57
not advance their own development00:05:01
Putin shares a00:05:03
great power fantasy that00:05:05
wants to incorporate other countries into its own empire, which for00:05:08
Putin is Ukraine for Chi00:05:11
Taiwan Chi's goal is to00:05:14
bring Taiwan back to the motherland, even00:05:17
by force if in doubt - a scenario that00:05:20
was as unthinkable for many years as a war in the middle of00:05:23
Europe Since the Russian attack00:05:26
on Ukraine, an invasion of Taiwan has also become a00:05:28
possibility -00:05:30
a war that would go far beyond the00:05:33
Indo-Pacific region and would00:05:39
involve the USA, Japan and its Western allies, but00:05:41
also China's allies, above all North00:05:44
Korea and Russia00:05:48
We are confronted with a00:05:50
world war scenario and00:05:52
Russia could take advantage of the opportunity00:05:54
because the Americans are then bound in the Pacific,00:05:57
Europe is also NATO00:05:59
territory, in case of doubt,00:06:01
Germany can also be attacked. We could find ourselves00:06:03
immediately in war,00:06:06
how unmistakably00:06:08
serious China is, Taiwan In00:06:21
2022, experts counted 1,70000:06:25
Chinese flights into Taiwan's00:06:28
air defense zone this year,00:06:30
this number has already been00:06:32
exceeded. China is repeatedly rehearsing the00:06:35
invasion of the democratically governed00:06:37
island and is letting its own citizens and00:06:40
the world is watching on state television00:06:43
a demonstration of power we00:06:48
meet Victor GA Vice President of the00:06:50
Center for China and Globalization and00:06:52
unofficial language of the00:06:54
communist party for an00:06:56
interview the Taiwan conflict will soon00:07:04
escalate China's position is very00:07:07
clear there is only one China Taiwan is00:07:09
part of China and the government of the00:07:11
People's Republic of China is the only00:07:13
legitimate representative of China. Do00:07:16
n't pretend that you don't know this cornerstone00:07:18
of today's international order.00:07:19
Don't pretend that00:07:21
Taiwan isn't part of China. The00:07:31
culprits have made the so-called reunification with Taiwan a top priority00:07:35
China has already identified a possible military escalation. They00:07:38
are in the USA and in00:07:42
[Music]00:07:44
Taiwan in Taipe at the Merther National Shrine.00:07:48
They commemorate the victims of the00:07:51
civil war when communist and00:07:53
republican Chinese00:07:56
killed each other. There will00:07:59
soon be more here In view of00:08:02
the constant threats from its00:08:04
larger brother, the small00:08:07
democratic island state is gearing up massively.00:08:11
The defense budget has risen00:08:14
by 14% to a new high this year alone.00:08:17
The00:08:20
first submarine of its own has just been00:08:24
completed. The USA is supposed to equip the00:08:26
air force with00:08:28
F1600:08:30
abr tanks already00:08:35
ordered we will be received in Taiwan's00:08:37
presidential palace by the head of the00:08:40
National00:08:41
Security Council Wellington Cou has the00:08:44
demanding task of protecting his island from00:08:47
the threat of China00:08:49
China is striving for unification00:08:52
with the Taiwanese territory00:08:53
and is making no hesitation about the fact that it is doing so00:08:55
in every possible way00:08:57
However, Taiwan has a00:08:59
very deep understanding that00:09:01
dictatorship and democracy are not00:09:02
compatible with each other00:09:04
since the Republican00:09:07
troops00:09:08
fled here from the communists in 1949.00:09:11
China is demanding the return of what it00:09:13
sees as a breakaway island.00:09:16
93% of Taiwanese people reject this, but most of them reject it some00:09:19
of them trust that00:09:21
their government will do everything necessary to00:09:24
protect them, some but that's not enough. Hello,00:09:29
I'm Chang, I came back00:09:32
from Ukraine six months ago.00:09:34
The 52-year-old is00:09:37
actually a tour guide for Japan, but00:09:39
he made his decision in March 202200:09:43
to travel to the front this time00:09:46
we want to give Taiwan some time00:09:49
if Ukraine falls then00:09:52
maybe it will be our Taiwan next00:09:55
time to fight the Ukra00:09:58
k we will also have a minute00:10:02
more security for Taiwan00:10:08
this is the AK47 I fought with in00:10:12
Ukraine I00:10:15
have00:10:18
preserved the equipment that he received00:10:20
as a member of the international legion00:10:23
in Ukraine in a military club in Taipe00:10:26
[Music]00:10:28
has Ukrainian national flag If you00:10:31
survive you can take it home as a souvenir00:10:33
If you die it is00:10:39
placed over the SAG of a soldier from Taiwan fell in the00:10:42
Ukraine but after00:10:44
eight months of deployment, he brought one thing above all with him00:10:48
[music]00:10:50
courage. Before I went to the Ukraine00:10:53
I didn't know whether we could resist the Chinese for days,00:10:55
weeks or three months,00:10:59
but I've been fighting there ever since00:11:01
I think if Germany, France,00:11:03
Great Britain and the United00:11:05
States are willing to support Taiwan with weapons00:11:07
the way they00:11:09
support Ukraine, then we can00:11:16
defeat China. He has brought even more souvenirs and00:11:18
equipment, for00:11:20
example a first aid kit that, in his eyes, is00:11:23
far superior to the Taiwanese one In00:11:30
the event that the00:11:32
Chinese fight against the Chinese again,00:11:35
in the evening he has an appointment with others00:11:37
who feel the same way00:11:40
in the autumn sun of Munich,00:11:43
it seems far away at the00:11:45
motor exhibition, Volkswagen's00:11:47
appearance should appear as majestic as E00:11:49
and ever but something is different, something seems00:11:54
threatening here too Volkswagen's electric cars00:11:57
are selling poorly in China, the00:11:59
most important car market in the world. The00:12:01
former royal brand in China is00:12:04
currently being supported by brands from China. A BYD has00:12:09
set up directly opposite. It looks00:12:11
like a duel on Munich's00:12:14
magnificent bolvar for Volkswagen00:12:18
Germany is so dependent on business00:12:20
in China that Chinese electric cars are00:12:24
threatened with it, which is00:12:26
life-threatening for Volkswagen, but it is a satisfaction for China's farmers,00:12:29
so we00:12:32
probably offer something a little different than00:12:35
the German providers, namely in China00:12:38
it is very important to have00:12:42
digital functionality in the00:12:46
car I think they didn't00:12:49
believe in electromobility at all,00:12:52
fxwagen or GM, they were dominated but00:12:56
if you look today, especially about00:12:59
electromobility, the Chinese00:13:01
car manufacturers are over00:13:04
60% of MAK's share Peter Notter was00:13:08
still BMW sales director inspecting China at the time00:13:12
E-cars used to be legendary, the arrogance of00:13:15
German car managers towards00:13:17
Chinese models. Today the00:13:20
car bosses are coming in droves to00:13:22
study the Chinese and their own00:13:25
failings, including Wolfgang Porch, the00:13:28
powerful VW owner and00:13:31
VW boss Oliver00:13:33
Blume in tow. We are still in China00:13:36
strongest automobile company and for00:13:39
us it is now very crucial that00:13:41
we succeed in the transformation into00:13:42
electromobility if the00:13:45
Chinese say German cars are00:13:46
uncool then I would rather buy a BYD00:13:48
so then maybe VW will only have00:13:50
20 or 30% of their profit00:13:53
from China that would of course be00:13:55
a catastrophe for Wolfsburg in the big00:13:57
mess Munich takes an alarmed00:14:00
Germany Day line-up Chancellor next to00:14:04
car bosses Scholz rushes to Munich00:14:08
Volkswagen and Co rush to help due to the00:14:10
attack from China The00:14:12
profits of the German brands are slipping a bit00:14:15
and with them hundreds of thousands of00:14:17
jobs Germany's00:14:19
mobility transition is a big task,00:14:21
but it is a team task and I00:14:24
come to you here today as a00:14:26
convinced member of this team.00:14:29
The team is fighting against a major00:14:32
opponent. China's e-cars are cheap because00:14:34
Beijing apparently unfairly00:14:36
subsidizes them. Germany could face00:14:38
Europe-wide punitive tariffs00:14:41
That's a bit of the idea of the00:14:42
China strategy level playing to create a lot00:14:44
and say you protect your00:14:45
markets you make subsidies we00:14:47
then protect our markets from your products00:14:50
equal rights for everyone we don't let ourselves be00:14:52
pushed out of the playing field these00:14:54
are very classic means that we00:14:56
have Here in Europe in our00:14:57
toolbox with which we00:14:59
can operate not to use this toolbox00:15:01
at a time when we can see00:15:03
that00:15:05
the quantity and price of00:15:08
electric cars that we are seeing pushing into the markets00:15:09
is something that is causing a00:15:11
structural shift in the market00:15:12
will pull that would be00:15:16
madness but will Germany00:15:18
dare will Europe have a tough00:15:21
conflict vehicle with China that's exactly what00:15:23
happened suddenly something else happened and00:15:29
the party was over announced by00:15:31
Greenpeace and bodyguards Schirman00:15:34
Scholz00:15:35
it's about the climate but what if there's another00:15:39
one here another party is coming to an end,00:15:41
an entire industry sector of Germany's00:15:46
economic model of trade with China has00:15:49
long been a party, a00:15:52
strategic partner, Angela00:15:54
Merkel called Beijing00:15:57
dasziputsch engineering art China cheap00:16:00
goods we thought in an authoritarian00:16:04
state there were no opportunities for00:16:08
freedom and creativity like that in00:16:10
of democracy and that's why00:16:12
we can actually trade with China without any problems00:16:14
because China will00:16:15
always try to replicate00:16:19
what we export to you, but00:16:21
they will always be one step behind00:16:23
us because the Chinese are hard-working00:16:25
but they have no ideas to obey00:16:27
The cliché exactly that was an00:16:29
insane mistake because it00:16:31
simply led to China catching up and in00:16:33
some cases overtaking. For00:16:36
Germany's economic bosses,00:16:37
China trade was a highly profitable00:16:40
gift. Now it is becoming a danger because00:16:43
China has caught up and overtaken in some areas.00:16:46
We are on00:16:48
We have reached a point where you notice that00:16:49
the balance is shifting, imports from00:16:51
China are increasing, our exports to00:16:53
China are decreasing, the economic00:16:56
balance is shifting towards00:16:57
China and that is the moment when,00:16:59
from a German perspective, you have to stop00:17:01
and say we want to That's00:17:03
really the German00:17:04
business model is done and00:17:06
from their point of view that's based on what, well, it's00:17:08
based on the fact that we00:17:09
import cheap raw materials from China,00:17:12
cheap gas from00:17:14
Russia do business with it from00:17:16
all over the world and the Americans pay00:17:18
for our security that's how it is now00:17:20
definitely over00:17:22
how dependent we are on global00:17:25
supply chains Corona and00:17:27
Russia's war against Ukraine have00:17:30
shown us but our dependence on00:17:33
China is actually much greater.00:17:38
The00:17:39
Federal Minister of Economics is responsible for Germany's trade. What lessons00:17:41
did Robert Habbeck learn? We had00:17:44
55% gas dependence and We00:17:47
just managed to keep the00:17:49
economy going. 90 If00:17:52
we hadn't managed it, it wouldn't00:17:54
have been possible. 55 We were able to replace it00:17:57
with high inflation, with high00:17:58
prices, with a00:18:00
deep economic crisis that was averted, but with a00:18:02
period of weakness that runs through this00:18:04
entire year 90 would have00:18:06
pulled our feet out from under us. 90% of our00:18:10
dependence on China is e.g. for some00:18:13
medicines or rare earths. If there is00:18:15
a confrontation with Taiwan,00:18:18
then the relationship between00:18:20
Germany and China will00:18:22
change completely overnight. Such a war of aggression00:18:25
would have sanctions against China As a result,00:18:28
the most important trade route in the world00:18:30
would be torn down. Direct trade00:18:34
with China alone would probably cost us 100:18:36
million jobs if we had to00:18:38
break away from it overnight,00:18:41
but that's not all, because00:18:43
about a third of it is lost through the Strait of Taiwan00:18:45
Half of the global00:18:48
trade in goods is shipped, which also means that none of this00:18:50
would arrive here anymore,00:18:51
which means we would have00:18:53
supply bottlenecks and we would have00:18:55
mass unemployment.00:18:57
Nobody really wants to imagine that.00:18:58
The federal government has now00:19:00
decided on a China strategy. The goal is called00:19:03
risking less China, risking less00:19:07
China naivety what does that mean how00:19:12
could it00:19:15
work Taiwan00:19:17
thought about how it could protect itself early on its ace00:19:21
the00:19:23
semiconductor industry is one of the00:19:25
most valuable companies in the world TSMC00:19:37
外的口 If Taiwan's foreign trade were00:19:40
interrupted then it would be a major00:19:42
catastrophe not only for Taiwan but00:19:45
for them The whole world because Taiwan accounts for00:19:47
60% of the global production of00:19:57
semiconductors. SMC, the00:19:59
Taiwan Semiconductor manufacturing00:20:01
company, has dedicated a museum to its successful product,00:20:03
semiconductors.00:20:06
The tiny chips are in00:20:09
refrigerators, cars and cell phones all over the world00:20:11
World the success of an00:20:17
industrial policy that has been pursued for decades in the past,00:20:19
TSMC, like everyone else, has looked at the costs00:20:22
and invested a lot in China,00:20:25
but earlier than we did we started to00:20:28
rethink and00:20:35
take risks. The mainland is increasingly00:20:37
our competitor in the world As a result,00:20:40
Taiwan's investments in mainland China have00:20:42
gradually declined over the last 14 years.00:20:44
In 2020,00:20:47
the last Taiwanese companies have also00:20:49
understood that production costs00:20:54
are no longer the most important factor of a company but that they00:21:02
have to take geopolitical considerations and risk diversification into account in the museum TSMC remembers the00:21:05
seven fathers of the electrical industry,00:21:07
managers and00:21:09
government members who sat down00:21:11
in a soy milk snack stand almost 50 years ago00:21:14
and made a far-reaching00:21:16
decision. Chrisy is00:21:20
an economist, she knows00:21:22
TSMC well, she takes us with her. We choose00:21:26
between warm soy milk or sweet00:21:29
or salty soy milk Proteins that the00:21:31
founding fathers of the Taiwanese00:21:33
electrical industry also consumed00:21:41
at the time. They decided that we00:21:46
should concentrate our expertise on one product and that we00:21:48
should develop something that cannot simply00:21:50
be copied by our neighboring countries.00:21:57
Support and went full force00:22:00
today is the whole world Depending on Taiwan's00:22:02
semiconductors, the00:22:04
production process is unique.00:22:12
It's very ironic, but00:22:14
even if the Chinese were to conquer TSMC,00:22:17
they would only get the factory and the00:22:19
building because the people have legs00:22:22
and most of the engineers have a00:22:23
green card and they can simply go to the USA,00:22:26
which is what they essentially do00:22:35
neither China nor the rest00:22:37
of the world can afford it if the00:22:39
supply of semiconductors fails, so00:22:42
China will think carefully about whether it00:22:44
really attacks Taiwan and the00:22:46
international community will00:22:48
try everything to prevent a war over Taiwan00:22:51
and not only That Taiwan's00:22:54
strategy has far-reaching influences00:22:56
on world trade00:22:58
and on Europe says Matie Duel, one of the00:23:02
leading Taiwan00:23:06
experts, I think this is00:23:08
the risk minimization of00:23:11
Taiwan that does not mean that00:23:12
globalization is completely dead, I think00:23:14
we are dealing with a certain degree of00:23:16
deglobalization to do but we remain00:23:19
in the world of mutual00:23:20
dependencies of linking00:23:22
supply chains that remains but there are00:23:25
more and more exceptions to this rule.00:23:32
Taiwan has made provisions for this situation.00:23:34
It has created a silicon00:23:37
shield, a protective shield made of00:23:43
[music]00:23:46
semiconductors and Germany exactly this00:23:49
Protective shield against China00:23:52
is missing for the medication that Anton00:23:55
urgently needs, there is no00:23:56
protective shield, no alternative to the00:23:59
missing00:24:01
antibiotics, the treatment is not working,00:24:07
Anton's parents take him to the00:24:10
hospital with severe pneumonia, his oxygen levels were00:24:13
very, very,00:24:14
very low He couldn't00:24:17
breathe well, he couldn't walk well, I00:24:18
just didn't feel like doing anything because he00:24:20
just didn't have the strength.00:24:23
If you don't get antibiotics,00:24:25
it's just bad. Being00:24:28
a parent is just very painful00:24:30
because you just can't help the child00:24:31
because there's nothing there to00:24:33
help Antibiotics were00:24:38
manufactured in Germany for decades. Penicillin, for example, was produced00:24:42
in Frankfurt Höchst from 1950 onwards.00:24:45
After just a few years, so00:24:48
much was produced that the whole of Germany00:24:50
could be supplied with it from here. This00:24:53
drug will00:24:56
save the lives of countless Germans in the coming years. W00:24:59
wonder how much Penicillins and00:25:00
cephalusporins were manufactured at the highest level00:25:02
after the Second World War00:25:05
until this millennium and00:25:07
at some point the Chinese00:25:09
thought we didn't like that, we wanted00:25:11
the market to be dependent on us and00:25:14
they00:25:15
took dampening prices for their00:25:17
raw materials, which is what the Chinese00:25:19
have Dampening prices ensured00:25:22
that production had to close down to a maximum.00:25:24
The tallest building is now00:25:27
an industrial monument. Since 2017 there has been00:25:31
no more antibiotic production because00:25:33
everyone was only looking at the price.00:25:35
In retrospect you can certainly say it was00:25:37
a strategic mistake but at the00:25:38
same time it was simply cheaper00:25:41
To produce in China you then have to00:25:43
ask our insurance if you want00:25:45
to be, are you willing to spend more on medicines00:25:47
because we have them produced in00:25:49
Europe or in India or in00:25:51
America,00:25:53
basically and the price pressure from00:25:55
insurance companies of00:25:58
consumers has led to this that de00:26:00
facto all of these difficult00:26:02
product categories have migrated to China,00:26:05
how dependent Germany00:26:08
has become on China became00:26:15
clear at least the year before. In October 2016, a boiler exploded in an00:26:19
antibiotics factory in eastern China.00:26:25
We heard a loud bang and we00:26:28
all ran outside when I did00:26:30
When we came out, the street was full of people.00:26:32
We saw meter-high00:26:36
flames. The Chilu company produces the00:26:39
antibiotic piperacillin. In00:26:42
Germany, there is an immediate00:26:44
shortage of00:26:47
products containing piperacillin. China has00:26:49
managed to ensure that certain00:26:52
antibiotics are only manufactured in China due to its dampening prices00:26:56
three large plants are00:27:00
produced we write to the companies00:27:02
it almost always says no interview no00:27:06
interview or we are suspected of espionage00:27:09
a popular formulation00:27:11
to get rid of annoying journalists' questions00:27:13
Foreigners would00:27:16
infiltrate China the whole country is00:27:18
currently fighting against spies00:27:21
you don't talk to us about political issues The press office sounds too00:27:25
sensitive at China's large00:27:28
antibiotic company.00:27:34
We have no interest in00:27:36
working with foreign media.00:27:38
We do not do any external communication00:27:40
with foreign media.00:27:44
Goodbye. We are on our way00:27:46
to one of the cephalus porin plants in00:27:49
Shangi Province. Chilo's exports to00:27:52
Europe are in the past This year the number00:27:53
has increased significantly again by00:27:56
130%.00:27:58
At the main entrance to the antibiotic factory there is00:28:01
an employee who agrees to00:28:04
talk to us. We produce cephalosporins.00:28:07
Our products are sold all over the world.00:28:09
I am really00:28:13
proud of that. Our presence did not00:28:16
go unnoticed. Discussion with the00:28:18
security at the main entrance Films00:28:22
banned China is trying to make others dependent on itself00:28:24
and itself autonomous,00:28:26
risking in Chinese00:28:29
even has its own name, the system of00:28:32
two cycles means that in order to arm itself in the00:28:34
trade war, China wants to00:28:37
increase consumption in its own country and00:28:45
reduce its dependence on exports The risk is basically00:28:48
not exactly what China00:28:50
has been practicing for many years, i.e.00:28:53
making itself more independent, isolating itself from00:28:55
foreign influences, is00:28:57
that not the same00:29:02
strategy? No, I don't think so. Since00:29:05
1978, China has opened up to the world00:29:07
and reformed its politics and economy00:29:09
Sees itself as an00:29:11
indispensable part of the world, it wanted to00:29:19
embrace the world, but if a country00:29:22
puts maximum pressure on China,00:29:25
if it wants to deny access to China,00:29:27
then China has to do the right thing,00:29:34
so invest a lot to00:29:37
mobilize all the talents, it has to00:29:39
become independent That's not what00:29:42
China initially wanted, that's what the00:29:45
wrong policies of other countries have00:29:47
forced us to do. China has no other00:29:56
choice00:30:07
Making profits with China but that they00:30:09
are not there to minimize risks00:30:11
for fear of being left behind.00:30:13
Volkswagen is investing 2.5 billion euros in a00:30:16
project with Horizon Robotics. The00:30:19
Chinese are leaders in00:30:20
self-driving cars. We want to00:30:23
give the customer the best there is and00:30:24
then we just take the best possible00:30:26
solution in the reg b it is an expensive00:30:28
bet on the future that the00:30:31
profit in China works like00:30:33
a VW Beetle used to run and run and00:30:36
run it could be a fallacy that we00:30:39
will control the Chinese market00:30:41
have to replace because in the long term our corporations00:30:44
in the form in which we00:30:45
see it now will no longer play the role00:30:46
that they have played for the last 10 20 years,00:30:48
but in the wake of the00:30:51
big ones, the small ones also continue00:30:53
as before, the supplier companies00:30:56
like the new zahnradwerk Leipzig GmbH00:30:59
with a good 100000:31:01
employees Hubertus Barsch00:31:04
built the company over 20 years ago.00:31:07
A factory in China was added eight years ago.00:31:09
Volkswagen's sales problems in China are00:31:13
also affecting his office. The00:31:16
best times are when the head does00:31:18
n't work at night, but you can00:31:20
tell me I believe that I have rarely been00:31:23
able to sleep in recent years,00:31:25
including this year.00:31:29
His company traditionally produces engine00:31:31
and transmission parts for combustion engines,00:31:34
but now electric cars are important,00:31:36
especially in China, and the question is,00:31:39
will Barch manage the transition and what00:31:41
will happen to his The group's most important customers,00:31:43
Volkswagen, will continue00:31:46
to order from barch, even if things are00:31:48
getting tight for VW, especially medium-sized companies00:31:51
in the automotive supply chain are00:31:53
currently extremely challenged to move away from00:31:55
combustion engines towards electric cars00:31:58
and some will certainly00:31:59
fall through the cracks At the moment, Barch has00:32:02
the feeling that he has escaped again00:32:04
during the pandemic, his00:32:07
Chinese colleagues are only on his00:32:10
radar. Now he is coming back to Tenschen for the first time.00:32:13
He is nervous about what00:32:16
will await him there. In00:32:20
2015, we00:32:23
accompanied Bart to build the China factory00:32:26
For 50 million euros it was brand new at the time,00:32:29
the passport was peeking out of his pocket,00:32:33
he was constantly shuttling between00:32:35
two worlds. It was the time of00:32:40
China euphoria. We belong to a few00:32:42
private individuals00:32:50
China has to work too, yes it will00:32:54
work for years Bar now00:32:57
produces no travel paste LT out of00:33:00
the shirt anymore it seems that China is00:33:03
further away today than it was back then just00:33:05
because of00:33:07
Corona it was a long and00:33:09
tiring time and I am very surprised00:33:12
that we are here are in such good condition00:33:14
at the moment and that the employees,00:33:17
the entire team, have practically00:33:20
kept this business running on their own over the years.00:33:24
The pandemic could be a warning00:33:27
for the dependencies of what it00:33:29
is like to suddenly be cut off from00:33:31
supply chains and your own00:33:35
millions of investments. My00:33:37
assessment is that German00:33:39
companies that operate in China00:33:42
need to know that their00:33:44
investments there may00:33:48
be treated completely differently than in constitutional states like00:33:51
Europe, that they can be expropriated.00:33:53
Well, that's not just a00:33:55
theoretical possibility,00:33:57
but it doesn't want to know anything about risk minimization from00:34:01
derisking00:34:05
Deindustrialization, everything that starts with D00:34:07
goes downwards. We are00:34:10
very well organized in China, but the bottom00:34:13
line for our company is that we have to00:34:15
consider that our risk in China00:34:18
remains tolerable.00:34:24
Yes, the risk remains tolerable. That's what the00:34:28
boss of the Geosat company is working on all over Taiwan00:34:31
relies on00:34:33
deterrence and armament00:34:36
lordchenfang produces civilian and00:34:38
increasingly military drones because00:34:41
Taiwan has to arm itself, says the00:34:46
flight engineer fudien in southern China where the00:34:49
Chinese have stationed their missiles00:34:52
is only two hours away by plane00:34:58
since the visit of the Speaker of the00:35:01
US House of Representatives Pelosi last00:35:03
year China's missile positions have00:35:05
moved forward. So far they have only been able to00:35:07
reach the eastern part of Taiwan,00:35:10
but now their range covers every00:35:12
square centimeter of Taiwan's00:35:13
territory.00:35:19
In order to test their machines in combat,00:35:22
there has been a00:35:25
sad test field in Ukraine since February 2022. One00:35:30
of GEOS helicopter drones will00:35:32
soon be sent there lengling00:35:36
will00:35:39
accompany you, the threat can00:35:41
fly normally and take photos. You00:35:43
can photograph a large area00:35:45
and return automatically, or you00:35:47
can set a route. Sit in00:35:49
certain places, eat or00:35:51
drink, drop some fuel or supplies.00:35:58
Of course, the drone can also00:36:00
drop other things lie changling knows what is needed on the00:36:03
Ukrainian front because00:36:05
he was already there right after00:36:07
the war broke out he gave up his job as an00:36:10
uberdriver and00:36:12
set off the former French00:36:15
Foreign Legionnaire wanted to experience something again00:36:18
the irony of the globalization of00:36:21
the Taiwanese Lee flew at Chinese threats00:36:25
the Ukrainian front and was00:36:27
immediately hired by Geosat upon his return.00:36:30
Now he will bring a donation to00:36:33
Ukraine00:36:35
[music].00:36:40
There are many young people in00:36:42
Taiwan who00:36:44
went to Ukraine as international volunteers.00:36:47
That was very courageous, but the long-term00:36:50
development is more important In00:36:52
other words, what can we learn from the00:36:54
Ukrainian battlefield as far as00:36:56
drones are concerned? They are a modern00:36:58
and urgently needed instrument on00:37:00
the battlefield if they can be00:37:02
fully integrated into the existing00:37:04
military units. We must00:37:09
study this new technology of warfare and also in Taiwan00:37:13
introduce charity coupled with00:37:16
sober calculation should help the small00:37:18
Asian democracy to defend itself against00:37:21
its totalitarian neighbor00:37:23
in order to reduce the risk of an attack00:37:33
China is trying to specifically reduce its own risk it sees00:37:36
itself in the global competition with the00:37:39
USA at the center of Beijing's strategy the00:37:43
dominance of certain particularly00:37:45
valuable raw materials Jünan province00:37:48
southwest of China our goal is a00:37:51
mine of the company junanong it supplies00:37:53
almost a third of the global00:37:55
production of around the company video is full of00:38:00
success stories Germanium and gallium00:38:02
are extremely important metals for the00:38:04
production of00:38:05
semiconductors Germany can be blackmailed00:38:08
because It has also become dependent on rare metals, a00:38:10
good half of00:38:12
its gallium comes from China, and for00:38:15
germanium the whole is00:38:18
82%. Since August, China has restricted its exports.00:38:21
It is a retaliation for00:38:24
Ushel's sanctions, but it also affects00:38:27
Germany. In August,00:38:29
exports of germanium and Gallium from00:38:31
China to00:38:32
zero China could00:38:35
turn off the HEN in some products at any time and then00:38:37
say you won't get any00:38:38
germanium or gallium, that was just00:38:40
an announcement that you00:38:42
need certificates, that wasn't a ban,00:38:45
you have to learn from that You have to00:38:47
see where this could happen,00:38:50
the mine tunnels in Jünnen go up to 2 km deep. We did00:38:56
n't respond to our interview request. There was barbed wire at the main entrance00:38:59
and a warning sign, strict00:39:02
entry ban for strangers and00:39:04
vehicles. A security guard immediately confronted us,00:39:07
we asked again after an00:39:11
interview I have to answer the central questions00:39:13
that decide whether they can go in now00:39:15
they are not allowed in00:39:17
the mood is tense the00:39:21
security guard is visibly uncomfortable with our sudden00:39:22
appearance00:39:24
the company won't talk to us00:39:27
even from government agencies only00:39:30
rejections Viktor GA Vice President00:39:34
of the Center for China and globalization00:39:36
and unofficial mouthpiece of the00:39:38
Communist Party is ready for an interview00:39:43
China has absolute dominance00:39:46
in rare earths and metals China00:39:49
still has two dozen aces up its sleeve We00:39:52
have no problem with00:39:55
Germany Republic follows the USA in its00:39:58
unjustified sanctions against00:40:00
China then exports will00:40:02
regulated in Germany in the same way as the00:40:05
Chinese government already does for the two00:40:06
metals gallium and germanium.00:40:16
As with antibiotics, gallium also had its00:40:20
own production in00:40:22
Germany here in Stade near00:40:25
Hamburg,00:40:31
but only until00:40:32
2017 galiium from Stade was not00:40:39
competitive and then Is the00:40:41
political question, is it worth00:40:44
producing gallium in Germany too with a00:40:47
view to security of supply with a00:40:48
view to00:40:49
competitiveness for the00:40:51
semiconductor industry? This question seems to have00:40:55
been answered about the00:41:00
future. In May 2023, the EU00:41:04
Commission President and Chancellor will carry out00:41:06
a digital00:41:09
divisional ceremony for a new one at infinien in Dresden00:41:11
Semiconductor factory Semiconductors are often00:41:13
referred to as the petroleum of the 21st century -00:41:16
the one raw material, so to speak, on which almost00:41:20
everything else depends. By 2030,00:41:23
together with the industry, we want to double Europe's00:41:26
share of global chip production00:41:29
to 20% and because the00:41:32
chip market is developing so rapidly,00:41:35
that means for us actually that we00:41:41
have to quadruple our current capacities 33 billion euros in subsidies,00:41:44
the EU is relaxed about it under these00:41:47
conditions, the Dresden location is00:41:49
also attractive for TSMC a nar who00:41:53
thinks that Taiwan's most important00:41:55
company00:41:57
can do whatever it wants with sol invtien00:42:01
SMC invests a lot in China that is00:42:04
over because the semiconductor industry is00:42:07
part of the national00:42:11
security strategy we are00:42:12
very concerned about the economic00:42:14
security of the00:42:16
semiconductor design we respect the00:42:19
global positioning of the company00:42:21
but it must be guaranteed that00:42:23
Taiwan's lead in this industry is00:42:25
maintained00:42:26
that means that The most modern00:42:28
production processes and research00:42:30
must00:42:33
remain in Taiwan. TSMC's most recent investments00:42:35
were all in closely allied00:42:38
countries. Is that a00:42:41
coincidence? No, it's not a coincidence. That means00:42:45
we agree with the development of a00:42:47
global network, but00:42:49
to protect the supply chain, TSMC only goes00:42:52
in Countries with similar00:42:55
values,00:42:58
industrial policy there and here on00:43:01
this green meadow in Dresden, t00:43:03
smmc will produce chips in about 4 years,00:43:07
not the most modern ones whose production00:43:09
should remain in Taiwan but earlier00:43:11
generations like the ones the European00:43:14
automotive industry needs.00:43:17
The Taiwanese want to invest00:43:20
about 10 billion euros They should get half of it00:43:21
subsidized. In my opinion, this is00:43:24
money well spent for Germany.00:43:27
In my opinion, they are lying00:43:28
a bit into their own pockets. The00:43:30
impact on global industry will00:43:37
not be fundamental in the next 10 years due to the measures we are currently seeing in Europe00:43:40
change if we only00:43:44
have six additional factories in Europe by 2030,00:43:46
that will not be enough to achieve the00:43:48
20% promised by vonder derlin00:43:51
because at the same time new factories are being built00:43:54
in China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and in00:43:57
the USA.00:43:59
We should therefore forget about the 20% let00:44:01
us concentrate on ensuring00:44:04
that our production of European00:44:14
[music]00:44:21
becomes a criticism that the responsible00:44:25
Federal Minister of Economics does not want to00:44:27
accept. Firstly, you have to00:44:30
start somewhere, well semiconductors will be00:44:32
everywhere in the future, we are well00:44:34
advised to produce some of what00:44:37
we consume ourselves00:44:39
and so on sometimes00:44:41
I don't understand it either, so there is a00:44:44
lot of concern about the attractiveness of00:44:46
Germany as an industrial location and then00:44:48
companies like this come and build the00:44:51
lead industry or want to build the00:44:53
lead industry here for the next few decades00:44:54
and then that is00:44:56
also00:44:58
criticized. Germany is trying to00:45:00
become at least a little more autonomous00:45:03
But Chinese high-tech has long been00:45:05
at the center of our communication, does00:45:07
the German mobile phone network operate00:45:10
critical00:45:11
infrastructure, how much conflict does00:45:14
Berlin dare to reduce this risk?00:45:16
That is perhaps also the00:45:18
logical error in our risky00:45:20
discussion, especially because it00:45:22
seems to be something completely peaceful We00:45:25
just have to minimize the00:45:26
risks a little bit,00:45:28
diversify a little bit,00:45:30
as if the Chinese leadership does00:45:32
n't notice that and as if they don't have00:45:33
an interest in the00:45:34
opposite happening because China does00:45:36
n't want to become the risk, which means we00:45:38
really have to determine where they are00:45:40
We depend on where we can find other00:45:41
partners in order to have alternatives, but00:45:43
not now to say we won't buy00:45:45
anything from China anymore, but to be00:45:47
able to tell the Chinese you ca00:45:49
n't00:45:51
blackmail us, the skyline of the high-tech00:45:54
metropolis is in sight when you're00:45:57
in Huawei Line 1 runs through retort00:46:00
Europe that the company's founder had00:46:02
built as a company campus, from one00:46:05
stop to the next you stroll from00:46:08
Paris via Bologna and Oxford to Rome00:46:10
or00:46:11
Heidelberg. Western media rarely get an00:46:14
insight here. We were00:46:16
invited to an exclusive tour. Here00:46:20
we are now in Heidelberg and this is00:46:22
a driverless car especially for00:46:24
you00:46:26
autonomously and futuristically it goes through00:46:29
the copy of Heidelberg's romantic00:46:31
alleys over bridges past rivers00:46:33
and small00:46:35
lakes a fairytale land it seems with00:46:38
high00:46:40
symbolic power they are supposed to be the symbol of00:46:43
China's resilience black00:46:46
swans according to superstition and in00:46:49
Hua's company history they also represent an00:46:51
unforeseeable event that has00:46:53
serious consequences. K00:46:56
Huawei says misfortune and threats have00:46:59
made them even stronger, which is why00:47:01
the black swans here on the00:47:03
company campus are lovingly fed and00:47:05
cared for. The animals are intended to00:47:08
remind the workforce of this every day00:47:10
Unpredictable to be prepared00:47:15
charm offensive with private tour Lunch00:47:19
and Carsten sensz he is Huawei's spokesman00:47:23
for Germany actually works in00:47:33
K customers D I know SAS HT always feels00:47:37
a bit like a marketing slogan00:47:38
but it's not Huawei's00:47:41
self-marketing offensive is aimed at00:47:43
the federal government because again there is00:47:46
one black swan in the00:47:49
Berlin area see huawe 5g technology a00:47:53
security risk and fear Ch SH00:47:56
install software and have Germany00:47:58
spied on remotely00:48:01
maybe even switch off networks and important00:48:04
infrastructure Huawei00:48:07
denies that we as suppliers have00:48:10
no access, no remote access to00:48:12
data in mobile networks or to the00:48:15
control of00:48:17
mobile networks These networks00:48:19
are under the control of the00:48:21
network operators, these scenarios of00:48:23
espionage and sabot00:48:26
belong more in the realm of science00:48:28
fiction, but the science fiction and the00:48:31
fear could become reality.00:48:34
China's national security law00:48:36
obliges companies to provide information00:48:39
to the party and the state in the USA.00:48:42
Huawei components are That's why00:48:44
a ban on Chinese 5g00:48:47
technology has long been taboo for German network operators. It00:48:49
would have a signal effect for the whole of00:48:54
Europe00:48:56
if the German government00:48:57
wanted to shoot itself in the foot. Please, we ca00:49:00
n't stop you, you know, we ca00:49:02
n't stop people from doing all the00:49:03
stupid things00:49:06
All the damage, injuries and00:49:07
losses will be caused to the German people, but I00:49:10
personally hope that the German government,00:49:12
as I have always perceived it, will be00:49:13
smarter and wiser.00:49:17
A ban on Chinese 5g00:49:20
technology for German network operators00:49:23
would have a signal effect for the whole of Europe.00:49:29
We don't want a country As customers, we00:49:30
certainly don't lose the largest00:49:32
market in Europe, the German market, because00:49:35
if you00:49:36
can survive and assert yourself on the German market, then00:49:38
you can do the same in many other00:49:40
markets. The German00:49:43
telephone providers are also up in arms against00:49:45
possible restrictions, threatening Berlin00:49:47
with00:49:48
lawsuits for damages despite all00:49:50
the security concerns Like the car companies,00:49:53
they want to continue as before when it comes to China.00:49:54
The pressure on00:49:57
politicians is enormous. I have00:50:00
always made it very clear to myself that00:50:01
risk minimization also means that we are00:50:04
not allowed to incorporate any technology from China into00:50:06
our infrastructure that would make00:50:08
us vulnerable I think00:50:10
we also have to be self-confident enough00:50:11
and say we don't let00:50:13
anyone00:50:17
put pressure on us, but Germany00:50:20
is trying to reach a compromise, the risk00:50:23
light, so to speak. We initially only banned a00:50:26
small but essential part of00:50:27
Huawei technology and demanded more transparency from China00:50:32
Even during our00:50:34
hour-long visit to00:50:36
Huawei's Europe, we only saw the facades of China's megatech00:50:40
company.00:50:46
In Taiwan, people are happy about00:50:49
everything that reveals a growing distance from00:50:51
China. It gives us hope that00:50:54
Germany00:51:03
would consistently side with democratic Taiwan We would like00:51:05
Germany to be prepared to deploy its00:51:07
warships in the Asia-Pacific00:51:09
region00:51:12
and to carry out military exercises in the00:51:14
Indo-Pacific region,00:51:17
but who knows whether00:51:19
international aid will really00:51:22
come for peace? It is important that00:51:26
the Taiwanese political leadership00:51:28
can convince Beijing that00:51:30
society can withstand an attack00:51:31
If the impression arises00:51:33
that Taiwanese society00:51:35
will capitulate very quickly,00:51:37
the probability of an attack increases00:51:39
very00:51:41
much. They don't trust it. They00:51:44
meet once a week with military00:51:46
discipline on the open-air stage of the00:51:49
park in00:51:53
Taip. What we hope is that00:51:56
we can demonstrate the will To defend ourselves, we00:51:58
can't expect other countries00:52:00
to help us if we do00:52:01
n't show the will to00:52:05
do it ourselves, so they decided to practice hand-to-hand combat, a00:52:10
little touchingly.00:52:13
They've forgotten the wooden rifles today,00:52:15
but that doesn't slow down their zeal.00:52:18
Self-defense groups like00:52:21
these exist Meanwhile, all over the country,00:52:23
young Taiwanese in particular have no00:52:26
connection to the People's Republic and want to00:52:28
prepare for an00:52:32
emergency. Once the catastrophe00:52:34
comes, we will all be nervous and00:52:36
perhaps have forgotten what we already00:52:40
knew, but through constant practice,00:52:44
the movement is moving towards that Memory of the00:52:45
muscles over and then we can00:52:48
make decisions that save our own00:52:50
lives and maybe even those of our00:52:52
family members.00:52:57
Today your00:52:59
star guest is the man who00:53:02
fought in the Ukraine last year and is00:53:04
now bravely taking part in00:53:08
strength training, but he has actually00:53:10
come for his Ukrainian00:53:14
to demonstrate a first aid kit yes that is a00:53:18
bandage yes yes if you have a hole here in00:53:21
the front and a hole in the00:53:24
back s banished what you are00:53:27
training on gets even closer thanks to it00:53:32
he really went to the Ukraine00:53:35
and came back alive that00:53:37
is very00:53:38
admirable I have the things00:53:40
which he brought with him today I have00:53:42
seen before but today I00:53:44
understood for the first time that they were really00:53:46
used in a war.00:53:51
At the end of a long00:53:54
training evening the hero is emotionally00:54:04
upset. What he sings is the anthem00:54:07
of00:54:24
Ukraine00:54:32
or China00:54:35
We don't know that Taiwan is really attacking, but Taiwan is trying to00:54:37
prepare for it and00:54:40
Germany, what we00:54:42
have to do in Germany is to make ourselves more independent00:54:44
and to00:54:45
position ourselves confidently against China00:54:47
and I think in the end that will also help00:54:49
me to deal better with it Having China be00:54:51
less dependent and less vulnerable00:54:53
will be expensive. We have to be able to provide these00:54:56
basic services to our population on00:54:58
our own again. We00:55:01
certainly also have to00:55:02
diversify widely so that we don't00:55:07
have to politically accept such country risks, but Germany is00:55:10
not at00:55:11
the mercy of China. China needs Europe too00:55:14
We are dependent on some00:55:18
products but China needs the market00:55:20
Europe too and China also needs00:55:23
imports from Europe00:55:26
Anton and his father went to the doctor again in Berlin.00:55:34
The therapy in the hospital helped00:55:37
Anton.00:55:39
His lungs are00:55:44
healthy again. I am of course happy that00:55:47
It didn't turn out any differently, but00:55:49
you do00:55:50
n't want to get into a situation like that again00:55:52
and then frustration and00:55:55
anger arise. You have to say that it's even00:55:58
happening. Do you still remember what it00:56:00
was like for you when you had to go to the hospital,00:56:02
even that night?00:56:05
Once I know, yes, I didn't really want to go00:56:10
to the hospital. How are you feeling00:56:15
well today with Anton, things went smoothly again00:56:20
[music]00:56:23
that his patients didn't completely00:56:26
use up and gave to him,00:56:29
maybe he still has something in the00:56:30
drawer when it happens again00:56:32
is now of course born out of necessity,00:56:34
theoretically we're not allowed to do that,00:56:36
but we're just doing it00:56:37
anyway because at the moment there's always a00:56:40
situation where patients00:56:41
can't start therapy that day because00:56:43
they have to wait two to three days for00:56:45
the medication then your00:56:48
own ability to be blackmailed is available, you often notice that00:56:50
when things happen like with Anton,00:56:53
when a confusing, disturbing00:56:55
world intervenes in the life of a00:56:59
six-year-old. Dependency is00:57:02
not fateful, it is made00:57:05
and therefore it can00:57:07
be reduced again if you00:57:23
want00:57:35
[music]Description:
Gute Beziehungen zu China garantierten der deutschen Wirtschaft lange Zeit günstige Güter und gutes Geld. Doch längst hat China in vielem nicht nur aufgeholt, sondern überholt – und aus der Beziehung wurde Abhängigkeit. Und diese Abhängigkeit wird spürbarer. Denn immer mehr trumpft China nicht nur wirtschaftlich, sondern auch politisch auf. Ob im Ukraine-Krieg, im Verhältnis zu Russland oder bei den fortgesetzten Drohungen gegenüber Taiwan: Wo China einst zurückhaltend agierte und als Partner in der Globalisierung bequem Gewinne garantierte, beansprucht es nun eine Weltmachtrolle. In Berlin reibt sich die Politik die Augen: Aus einer Beziehung ist eine Abhängigkeit geworden – und einfach Schluss machen, geht nicht. ----- Hier auf ZDFheute Nachrichten erfahrt ihr, was auf der Welt passiert und was uns alle etwas angeht: Wir sorgen für Durchblick in der Nachrichtenwelt, erklären die Hintergründe und gehen auf gesellschaftliche Debatten ein. Diskutiert in Livestreams mit uns und bildet euch eure eigene Meinung mit den Fakten, die wir euch präsentieren. Abonniert unseren Kanal, um nichts mehr zu verpassen. Immer auf dem aktuellen Stand seid ihr auf https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten
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