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Subtitles
Russian
00:00:02
The armed conflict in the Donbass00:00:04
has been going on for 7 years since00:00:07
2014 and its completion00:00:10
is still a big question mark. The parties to00:00:12
the conflict are unsuccessfully trying to reach00:00:14
a compromise, although the border between Ukraine00:00:16
and the separatist regions has00:00:19
not actually changed in recent years and00:00:21
the number of armed clashes is00:00:23
permanently decreasing at the same time. time,00:00:25
the question of the future of the Donbass remains00:00:27
open in this issue we will talk about00:00:30
what kind of future awaits the separatist00:00:33
regions in the Donbass,00:00:34
to begin with it is worth saying a few words about the00:00:37
context of what is happening, although many already00:00:39
know it, the course of the political crisis in00:00:42
Ukraine in the fourteenth year,00:00:44
growth began in a number of eastern cities00:00:46
separatist views, especially this00:00:48
trend swept the Donetsk and Lugansk00:00:50
regions; this state of affairs quite00:00:53
quickly escalated into an armed conflict00:00:55
between the Ukrainian government and00:00:57
separatist groups in the00:00:59
east. Initially, the separatists00:01:01
spread virtually throughout the entire00:01:03
territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions;00:01:06
however, during the military operation, the00:01:07
territories were significantly reduced00:01:10
nevertheless, the Ukrainian authorities were finally00:01:12
unable to suppress the separatists,00:01:14
they proclaimed the creation of the people's00:01:16
republics of Lugansk and Donetsk,00:01:18
which were never recognized by anyone, the00:01:20
conflict between the parties in fact00:01:23
continues and a compromise between Ukraine00:01:25
and the unrecognized republics00:01:27
was never found, let's talk about what What awaits00:01:30
these republics next and how00:01:32
events may develop in the future, in principle,00:01:34
there are three main outcomes for these00:01:36
regions: returning them to Ukraine,00:01:39
inclusion in Russia and maintaining the00:01:42
status quo, that is, the current state00:01:44
of affairs, let’s look at each of the00:01:47
options separately and talk about the00:01:49
likelihood of this events00:01:51
the first option for the return of separate00:01:54
regions, the composition of Ukraine, this option has already been00:01:57
discussed by the authorities for several years and00:01:59
for it the format of the Minsk agreements was even developed,00:02:01
signed in00:02:04
2015 under Poroshenko, according to the00:02:07
agreement, the region becomes again00:02:09
controlled by Ukraine, however, the latter00:02:11
is obliged to fulfill a number of conditions,00:02:14
including providing the regions with special00:02:16
the status of essentially autonomy, an amnesty for all00:02:19
participants in hostilities on the part of the00:02:21
militia, the right to linguistic00:02:24
self-determination, and the key issue was the00:02:26
point about the ability of regions to00:02:28
independently cooperate with the Russian00:02:30
Federation; the last point essentially00:02:33
brings regions into the status of autonomous00:02:35
objects, even with the possibilities of00:02:37
international economic00:02:38
cooperation, it became one of00:02:41
the most controversial in the internal politics of00:02:43
Ukraine because in Ukraine there are many00:02:45
opponents of this format of agreements,00:02:48
in turn, the issue of amnesty for the00:02:50
separatists has also become a sore point for the00:02:51
Ukrainian army in general,00:02:53
despite the fact that the agreement was signed00:02:55
in the fifteenth year, progress in its00:02:57
direction is not really happening Russia00:03:00
insists on implementation of the treaty as00:03:02
a whole, it is in its interests, in turn,00:03:05
Ukraine is looking for opportunities to revise the00:03:07
terms so that the annexation of Donbass00:03:10
on such conditions is unlikely to happen. Of00:03:12
course, we can also talk about the forceful00:03:15
scenario of the return of Donbass, the composition of00:03:17
Ukraine, which in fact was actively00:03:19
promoted in 14-15 years, the forceful scenario00:03:23
also turned out to be unsuccessful since the00:03:25
Ukrainian side was unable to push through the00:03:27
separatist regions actively00:03:30
supported by Russia in the current00:03:32
realities, the power scenario will not be00:03:33
approved by the Western community, and again00:03:36
the success of such an operation is in00:03:38
big question given Russian00:03:40
support for the separatists, the return of00:03:42
Donbass to Ukraine will be possible00:03:45
with a change of internal elites in Ukraine or00:03:47
in Russia, if the authorities in one of the countries00:03:49
completely change their course and vision of the00:03:52
problem, this could very well happen.00:03:54
This option is possible if00:03:56
pro-Russian authorities come to Ukraine and take the00:03:59
majority of seats in parliament, or if pro-00:04:01
European forces come to power in Russia00:04:03
and will improve matters for the00:04:06
West, however both of these options are extremely00:04:09
unlikely; in the near future we will00:04:11
consider the second option, namely the00:04:14
annexation of the separatist regions of00:04:15
Russia, initially in the fourteenth year,00:04:18
when separatism took place in the00:04:20
Lugansk and Donetsk regions, the militia of00:04:23
these regions did this with an eye on the00:04:25
Crimean scenario, then Crimea was00:04:27
annexed by Russia and without failures became00:04:30
part of the federation despite the non-recognition of the00:04:33
alienation of Crimea by the international community, the00:04:35
peninsula de facto became00:04:37
controlled by Russia and was00:04:39
proclaimed to the subjects of the federation. The00:04:43
separatists of Donbass apparently also counted on the same scenario,00:04:45
however, with the beginning of the conflict, Russia was no longer00:04:48
able to so easily annex these00:04:50
regions into its composition even despite00:04:52
this, referendums were held in the00:04:54
regions, although not recognized by the world00:04:56
community,00:04:57
hopes for joining Russia did not00:04:59
fade back in the 14-15s; moreover, a00:05:03
more ambitious plan was even proclaimed00:05:05
called Novorossiya, which00:05:08
covered all the00:05:09
south-eastern regions of Ukraine; however,00:05:12
the plan was has been curtailed and the regional authorities00:05:14
control only part of the Lugansk and00:05:16
Donetsk regions, there is00:05:17
more or less regular talk about joining Russia,00:05:19
but the Russian00:05:22
side remains silent on this matter,00:05:24
why is this happening? Russia is unlikely to00:05:27
plan to annex these regions00:05:29
since this will incur large00:05:30
costs, firstly Unlike the Crimea,00:05:33
active hostilities took place in the regions, which is00:05:36
why the infrastructure of the region was00:05:38
quite badly damaged;00:05:41
billions of dollars will be required to restore the00:05:42
region; Russia cannot afford such costs,00:05:45
although it is still actively00:05:47
pouring in funds into the Donbass; restoration is00:05:50
also complicated by the fact that during the war,00:05:53
literally half the population of the region00:05:54
fled from it and the industrial potential00:05:57
was exhausted, a number of enterprises were even00:06:00
exported to Russia secondly, another00:06:02
wave of international pressure Russia does not00:06:04
want to experience sanctions 14 years, although they did00:06:07
not destroy the Kremlin power,00:06:10
nevertheless they hit the Russian economy, which of00:06:12
course the government does not want00:06:15
to repeat, thirdly, the purely media00:06:17
ideological Donbass negative story,00:06:20
if the annexation of Crimea was carried out00:06:22
virtually without shots fired and added to00:06:24
the rating of the current government,00:06:26
then by uniting regions that00:06:28
have been fighting with the Ukrainian army for many years, it will not00:06:31
produce a similar effect, but will more00:06:33
cause negativity both from the00:06:35
patriotic public and On the00:06:37
liberal side, a number of political scientists even00:06:40
believe that Russia does not want to annex00:06:42
the Donbass, also in order to maintain a point of00:06:44
pressure on Ukraine; in particular, we are talking00:06:46
about Ukraine’s entry into NATO. the00:06:56
last option is00:06:59
maintaining the status quo, that is, the current00:07:01
state of affairs; this version of events00:07:03
now seems to be the most00:07:06
likely; the unrecognized republics00:07:08
will retain their status and will not be00:07:10
included in Russia; they will not be part of00:07:13
Ukraine; their livelihoods will be00:07:15
supported by Russia, providing them with00:07:18
financial and military support, and00:07:20
will also allocate loans for00:07:22
regional development, this option seems possible00:07:24
due to the fact that the first two scenarios are00:07:27
unlikely today and also00:07:29
due to the fact that in the post-Soviet00:07:31
space there are examples of quite a00:07:33
long existence of unrecognized or00:07:36
partially recognized republics that00:07:38
separated at one time from other countries00:07:40
in question about Abkhazia and South Ossetia,00:07:43
as well as Transnistria, all these regions00:07:46
separated back in the 90s and so far00:07:48
their international status has not actually00:07:51
changed for several decades;00:07:53
Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain00:07:56
regions uncontrolled by Georgia;00:07:59
however, they have not become part of Russia00:08:01
they entered into the same thing with Transnistria,00:08:04
Moldova actually does not control00:08:06
the territories, and local authorities, although they have00:08:09
repeatedly asked for the inclusion of their territory,00:08:11
Russia never entered there; Russia00:08:14
still financially supports these00:08:16
regions, however, due to problems with00:08:18
international recognition,00:08:20
they are in decline, summing up,00:08:23
it is worth saying that there are a number of00:08:24
options for the development of events in the Donbass;00:08:26
he can return to Ukraine, become00:08:29
part of Russia, or maintain the00:08:31
status quo; all options have their own00:08:34
obstacles to their implementation;00:08:35
however, one of the most realistic00:08:37
at the moment is maintaining the00:08:39
status quo for the unrecognized republics,00:08:42
such experience already exists in the post-Soviet00:08:45
space, I will be grateful if you support me00:08:48
on Patreon, link in the description thanks to00:08:51
everyone who already supports meDescription:
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