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Channel: Віталій Портников

Путін бомбить Воронеж. Чи це Україна? 63-й день війни | Віталій Портников

Путін бомбить Воронеж. Чи це Україна? 63-й день війни | Віталій Портников

Channel: Віталій Портников

портников

portnikov

00:00:00

[music]

00:00:04

Mr. Vitaly Well, we must start, of course, with

00:00:07

President Biden's Friday address, the

00:00:09

so-called state of the Union

00:00:12

Address, about the state of affairs in the country, what do you

00:00:15

think about him, the level of the

00:00:18

president's energy, the fact that

00:00:22

he started, in fact, he started his

00:00:24

conversation from Ukraine What is not, well, not so

00:00:28

typical of the American traditions of such

00:00:30

speeches and will this speech help

00:00:35

unlock support for our country?

00:00:39

Well, we see that President Biden is doing

00:00:41

everything possible to convince congressmen

00:00:43

of the need to allocate this money,

00:00:45

but at the same time, you can compare the

00:00:47

atmosphere of this message with what you

00:00:49

saw in 2022. Literally a few

00:00:53

days after Vladimir Putin's attack on

00:00:55

Ukraine, Joseph Biden made such an

00:00:58

address to Congress,

00:01:00

and when he spoke about helping Ukraine, the

00:01:02

entire Congress stood up, and Democrats and

00:01:04

Republicans stood up. Now during

00:01:07

these words about Ukraine, Republicans did not

00:01:09

they responded, they stayed in their places, they looked

00:01:13

at their phones, it was absolutely obvious that

00:01:15

they did not want to respond to this, and this is a

00:01:17

completely different atmosphere, this is of course a

00:01:19

problem to some extent. I just hope that the

00:01:23

issue here is not so much in

00:01:26

the appeal to the congress, but in the

00:01:30

ability of the congressmen to find a common

00:01:33

language among themselves By the way, I think that

00:01:35

the administration has carefully studied

00:01:38

how it can influence

00:01:40

congressmen and public opinion, and here is

00:01:42

this idea that the first lady of

00:01:46

Ukraine, Mrs. Zelenska, and the widow of Oleksiy

00:01:50

Navalny, Yulia Navalny, would be together. This also

00:01:54

corresponded to their vision of how to

00:01:56

change public opinion in Ukraine.

00:01:58

perceived as some kind of political

00:02:00

insult. As we know this very idea, but

00:02:03

it is obvious that the administration believed that

00:02:05

now the death of Oleksiy Navalny is in the

00:02:08

center of attention, unlike the war in

00:02:09

Ukraine, which has now come off the front pages of

00:02:13

American publications, does not appear in the

00:02:16

main news of television channels, and

00:02:18

it is precisely this combination of the fact that Ukraine

00:02:22

must be held responsible for the death of a large number of people, the

00:02:24

administration also

00:02:27

tried to change this situation to their own

00:02:30

advantage, well, this did not happen because we

00:02:33

understand that it was not clear to both

00:02:35

sides. I think that the president's office did not

00:02:38

want this

00:02:40

exactly combining the interests of

00:02:43

such a joint presence for Ms.

00:02:48

Navalnya and for the FBK is not politically

00:02:51

beneficial, here is the presence next to the

00:02:55

wife of the President of Ukraine, because we

00:02:57

know that the FBK is very careful about the

00:03:02

issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war, so

00:03:04

it can be said that even Ms. Zelenska did not

00:03:06

want to be together with Mrs. Navalny and

00:03:07

it is obvious that Mrs. Navalny did not really want

00:03:09

to be with Mrs. Zelenska, but she could not

00:03:13

say it as it could have been said.

00:03:16

In the Ukrainian capital, it did not happen,

00:03:18

but in any case it is clear that now

00:03:22

it is important for President Biden to wage this

00:03:25

war precisely in the context of the confrontation with

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Russia, it was not just about Ukraine. It

00:03:30

was primarily about Russia as a threat, a

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threat to the West, and these were different from

00:03:36

the words we heard in previous

00:03:38

messages after the start of

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the war, which is also interesting that you know from

00:03:45

each side, from the president's side, there are

00:03:48

invited guests there are guests. Well, on

00:03:52

the part of Mike Johnson, the speaker, who

00:03:55

of course sat next to Kamala Harris traditionally,

00:03:59

he invited to this speech the parents of

00:04:05

Evan Heshkowitz, an American journalist,

00:04:08

and a journalist from the Watch Po newspaper, who was

00:04:12

arrested precisely in the Russian Federation,

00:04:14

that is, even for such

00:04:17

republican figures as Mike Johnson,

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Russia after all it still remains toxic

00:04:24

despite the refusal to call it that and to call

00:04:27

Putin's regime exactly Donald Trump,

00:04:30

he refuses. I would like to

00:04:31

remind you that even Toker Carson, who did not

00:04:33

ask Vladimir Putin a single question

00:04:35

about political prisoners, about the bulk, at the same time

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he reminded the

00:04:41

Russian president about Heshkovich that for

00:04:43

any American, even a

00:04:45

conservative Republican, the issue of the

00:04:48

imprisonment of an American journalist in a

00:04:49

Russian prison is a matter of principle,

00:04:51

it is a matter of protecting the honor of the

00:04:54

United States of America and

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its ability to free its

00:04:57

citizens from the prisons of totalitarian

00:05:03

regimes. Well, according to the

00:05:05

results of Super Tuesday, yes the so-called

00:05:08

Donald Trump has in fact already

00:05:10

secured the nomination for the presidency

00:05:12

from the Republicans, at the same time

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there are 91 criminal cases against him, can

00:05:19

this or anything else stop

00:05:21

Trump's nomination at all and under what conditions we

00:05:24

see that the Supreme Court has already voted

00:05:26

against not

00:05:32

giving to recognize exactly Trump's immunity

00:05:36

and not to allow individual states. For

00:05:39

example, the state of Colorado should not be

00:05:42

included in the list of

00:05:46

candidates. I don't see any real

00:05:49

possibility to stop this march of Donald

00:05:51

Trump to the Republican nomination. I

00:05:54

believe that if nothing serious

00:05:56

changes significantly,

00:05:59

these names will be the main ones on the ballots

00:06:02

First of all, Biden and Trump, together with this, I

00:06:05

would like us to notice

00:06:08

that when Trump wins in the

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Republican primaries, his

00:06:14

support is different from this

00:06:15

support that we saw

00:06:18

in

00:06:20

2016 and 2020, that is, fewer

00:06:24

Republicans vote for Trump and

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there is no clear indication that those Republicans

00:06:31

who gave their let's say votes for

00:06:33

Nikki Haley and would continue to cast them if

00:06:36

Ms. Haley did not refuse to participate in the

00:06:38

election

00:06:40

campaign, they will vote

00:06:42

for Donald Trump in the presidential election,

00:06:44

some of them already say that they

00:06:46

will vote for Joseph Biden,

00:06:48

some of them can just stay at home and

00:06:52

not

00:06:53

vote for none of the candidates which in

00:06:56

principle opens the possibility for the democratic

00:06:58

candidate to win this election

00:07:01

despite the dominance of donald

00:07:03

trump in the republican party is one

00:07:05

point another point that joseph biden

00:07:08

will have to deal with some

00:07:11

opposition in his own party because

00:07:13

we see that the left republicans they are not

00:07:15

satisfied with the situation in the Middle

00:07:18

East and during the message Joseph Biden

00:07:20

gave them such a signal I would say

00:07:22

speaking about the construction of this port on

00:07:25

neutral territory for the

00:07:26

evacuation of the civilian population, these are

00:07:29

important words for the American

00:07:30

president to those people who talk

00:07:31

about the humanitarian disaster in the

00:07:33

gas sector and that the United States, with its

00:07:36

support for Israel, contributes to this

00:07:37

catastrophe, there are many such Democrats, and

00:07:40

if Joseph Biden finds a common language with them, by

00:07:43

and large, it also creates

00:07:46

additional opportunities for his campaign, it is

00:07:49

simply clear that these people will never

00:07:51

vote for Donald Trump in their lives, but they

00:07:54

can also stay at home here, it is very

00:07:56

important that during the 2020 election,

00:08:00

those who did not want to vote for

00:08:03

Donald Trump stayed at home, and those

00:08:06

who did not want to vote for Joseph

00:08:07

Biden came to the polling stations, the

00:08:09

secret of the victory of the democratic candidate

00:08:11

will be precisely in this, that the voter

00:08:14

who does not want Donald Trump

00:08:16

will not vote for him in any case,

00:08:19

and the voter who has complaints against

00:08:21

Joseph Biden will vote for him

00:08:23

in order to prevent the restoration of Donald

00:08:25

Trump in the White House, this is a simple

00:08:27

formula for these elections, how effective it will be,

00:08:29

we

00:08:31

will see, Mr. Vitaly Recently, an

00:08:35

interview of Boris Johnson was published, a

00:08:36

short interview with the Ukrainian publication Nv,

00:08:38

where he

00:08:40

was asked whether it is necessary to prepare and what should

00:08:43

Ukrainians expect that Donald Trump

00:08:45

will become the president of the United States.

00:08:51

Trump was the

00:08:55

president when he was the

00:08:57

foreign minister of Britain and in England

00:08:59

this event happened with the poisoning in Salisbury

00:09:04

and Trump sent out as many as 60 Russian

00:09:08

diplomats and he says very much that Boris is

00:09:12

optimistic about Don

00:09:15

Trump that he will not negotiate with

00:09:19

Putin, he will eventually be the president

00:09:22

who will help I am quoting him, he will protect

00:09:24

democracy, he will support Ukraine, is he

00:09:27

knowingly saying this because of

00:09:29

some hopes to somehow

00:09:32

join the

00:09:34

Trump movement and Trumpism in general on the other side of the Atlantic,

00:09:37

or is he so naive, or

00:09:40

is there anything in it at all because he is saying

00:09:42

something rational, after all, you know

00:09:45

I think that the last thing in this world is to

00:09:47

trust the

00:09:49

political intuition of a man whose promises

00:09:53

and whose worldview can be said to have led

00:09:57

to a disaster for his

00:09:58

own country

00:10:00

because that Brexit movement

00:10:02

whose ideologist was Boris Johnson

00:10:05

led to such a crisis in Great

00:10:07

Britain In which there were many

00:10:08

decades, by and large, Boris

00:10:10

Johnson is one of the most responsible

00:10:13

figures for the economic and political crisis

00:10:16

in Great Britain, the outcome of which is still unknown.

00:10:28

it can be

00:10:30

said that this was his last political

00:10:33

capital from the point of view of his completely

00:10:36

destroyed reputation, the last opportunity to

00:10:38

preserve the remnants of this reputation, because

00:10:41

in the internal politics of Great Britain

00:10:44

Boris Johnson will remain forever with a

00:10:46

big minus sign as an anti-politician, as a

00:10:48

populist, as an irresponsible person, and in

00:10:51

foreign policy, he is very important the

00:10:53

course he eventually took not immediately

00:10:56

at all not immediately in relation

00:10:58

to the Kremlin, so what does Boris Johnson

00:11:01

think about Donald Trump, who

00:11:03

repeatedly spoke about him, to

00:11:05

put it mildly, without respect, and this is also such a moment,

00:11:08

I think a person with self-respect mentioned about

00:11:11

evaluations to

00:11:14

Trump's address, it has absolutely no

00:11:18

meaning, you need to understand a simple thing

00:11:20

Trump in 2016 and Trump in

00:11:24

2024 are completely different people

00:11:28

because Trump in 16 was a person who

00:11:30

came to the Republican Party and

00:11:32

counted on its strong establishment

00:11:35

Trump in 2024 is a person which determines the

00:11:40

fate of

00:11:42

Republican congressmen, senators,

00:11:45

party figures, as we see it now

00:11:47

by replacing the leadership of the Republican

00:11:49

Party of the Republican Party of

00:11:50

the United States in the form in which

00:11:52

we generally knew it no longer exists, it is a

00:11:54

completely different political organization in

00:11:56

2016, it existed and could

00:11:59

restrain Donald Trump in 2024 this year

00:12:03

we can see it again in the fate of

00:12:05

Kevin McCarthy

00:12:07

in the way Mike Johnson behaves in the

00:12:10

fate of those politicians who did not agree to

00:12:14

support the very idea of storming the capitol,

00:12:17

such as Mike Pence or Les Cheney, these are people

00:12:21

who have become absolute outsiders in the Republican Party,

00:12:26

even Nicky Hale realizing that her

00:12:29

ship is already sinking, they have never

00:12:32

allowed themselves to speak harshly about

00:12:33

Donald Trump's electorate. It is simply

00:12:35

necessary to realize that Donald Trump as

00:12:37

president of the United States will

00:12:40

not be the person we knew even in 2016,

00:12:42

and his willingness to negotiate with

00:12:46

authoritarian regimes will be supported

00:12:49

this administration as the one he will form

00:12:52

in the end it will be the so-called

00:12:53

administration without adult people already

00:12:55

in the last year of trump there were none except

00:12:58

vice president pence who simply

00:13:00

remained because he could not be

00:13:02

removed or secretary of state mike

00:13:06

pompeo on this list ended

00:13:09

now and there will be no such people Trump

00:13:13

Nothing will hold back his vision of

00:13:15

reality and if the Republicans

00:13:18

also establish control over the congress I

00:13:20

think we will see such an America that we have

00:13:23

never seen in our lives and the problems of

00:13:27

Ukraine

00:13:29

that will naturally be these will be the smallest

00:13:32

problems of all those that

00:13:34

the world will face if Donald Trump wins the

00:13:36

presidential elections in 2024, it will be a

00:13:39

very uncomfortable world. I assume that

00:13:42

Donald Trump will not withdraw the United States

00:13:44

from NATO, but I assume that the role of the United

00:13:48

States in NATO in the European direction

00:13:50

will be significantly limited.

00:13:52

objective reasons, because I think that

00:13:53

Donald Trump's coming to power will

00:13:55

simultaneously create serious problems in the

00:13:57

Asia-Pacific direction. We are now, in

00:13:59

principle, on the way to the usual pattern of the

00:14:04

third world war, when the Russian

00:14:07

Federation in the role of Hitler's Germany

00:14:10

disturbs Europe and China in the role of pre-war

00:14:15

Japan strikes the interests of the

00:14:17

United States in the Asia-Tech

00:14:19

region and so Something similar to the

00:14:22

third world war is starting and Donald Trump may

00:14:26

be the very president who

00:14:28

will have to accept this challenge in all

00:14:30

its I would say existential and we do not

00:14:33

know how he will react to it or Will

00:14:36

Donald Trump be Franklin Roosevelt or will

00:14:39

he try to avoid this kind of

00:14:41

responsibility, this will all be tested by

00:14:44

experience And for this, Americans who

00:14:47

vote for Donald

00:14:49

Trump will pay approximately the same

00:14:52

as residents of Central European countries who

00:14:54

vote for their own

00:14:57

populists, and Mr. Vitaly, by the way, this is

00:15:01

the scenario this is what the well-

00:15:04

known New York Times columnist

00:15:07

Bret Stevens says. By the way, he is a big

00:15:09

supporter of the idea of helping

00:15:13

Israel and Ukraine, and he says that he

00:15:16

learned

00:15:18

from a certain representative of Trump's

00:15:22

entourage that Trump has such agreements

00:15:25

with Putin that he does not provide

00:15:28

blocks now, of course, help Ukraine to

00:15:30

force Ukrainians to sit down at the

00:15:32

negotiating table, and now how much

00:15:37

more Ukrainian territory can Putin grab. Already

00:15:41

on these lines of demarcation,

00:15:44

negotiating according to the Korean scenario

00:15:47

immediately is also part of the agreements to

00:15:51

remove sanctions from Russia and to demand from Ukraine a

00:15:56

signature in a different language from

00:16:00

in general, look into the eyes of 300 billion

00:16:05

frozen Russian assets. Do

00:16:07

you miss

00:16:09

an opportunity at all? Do you understand that Putin can

00:16:12

simply deceive Trump? I admit that

00:16:15

similar signals from the Kremlin can be

00:16:18

given out, but then

00:16:21

when Trump becomes the president of the United

00:16:24

States. If he wins the election, Putin

00:16:26

will say. I apologize. I don't remember what

00:16:29

we agreed on there, we need the whole of

00:16:31

Ukraine, not some parts of the territory,

00:16:33

and the non-aligned states should decide the size of

00:16:36

historical Russia. I think that Putin simply

00:16:40

has a simple plan to outwit Trump with

00:16:43

soft words, so what will Trump do in a

00:16:46

situation when he will understand that he

00:16:48

made a fool of himself with Putin, as during

00:16:51

his presidency he made a fool of a

00:16:53

Kimchan, you can find out, he

00:16:55

will not do anything, he will try in

00:16:59

his characteristic style to make a bad mine with a good

00:17:01

mine with a bad game, which will once again

00:17:04

convince the leadership of the

00:17:06

People's Republic of China that with a person who is

00:17:08

so ignorant of the

00:17:12

politics of totalitarian countries and their

00:17:15

promises Today is taken tomorrow is taken away

00:17:17

differs from politics in

00:17:19

democratic countries that with this person

00:17:21

you can do anything you want and in the

00:17:24

interests of the United States in the

00:17:26

Asia-Pacific region

00:17:29

Maybe even Taiwan will be inflicted a

00:17:31

hard and devastating blow that will put an

00:17:34

end to the

00:17:36

geopolitical role of the United States and

00:17:39

Donald Trump will become the last president of the

00:17:41

United States as the leader of the free

00:17:44

world if he cannot

00:17:45

respond realistically and the United States with

00:17:48

its economy and its values and

00:17:51

its post-war opportunities

00:17:55

to influence the world and protect Europe on

00:17:57

our eyes will turn into a geopolitical

00:17:59

dwarf in the world will begin the period of

00:18:02

dominance of the People's

00:18:04

Republic of China, the hegemon of the Asian

00:18:07

region and the Russian Federation, the hegemons of

00:18:09

Europe, this will be a bipolar world without

00:18:12

America, a world that will be divided by Russia and

00:18:15

China.

00:18:22

it will happen that

00:18:24

we just make schemes with you that will never come

00:18:27

true. I hope that the United

00:18:29

States will have the sense to respond with dignity

00:18:32

to the challenge of totalitarian regimes And that

00:18:35

even Donald Trump will not be so

00:18:38

self-confident when it comes to the

00:18:40

survival of the interests of his own country

00:18:42

in

00:18:43

such a very light Such a question,

00:18:46

Mr. Vitalyu. And what is

00:18:48

Trump's secret after all this, what did the

00:18:51

electorate, what did the American population

00:18:53

see, how literally everyone from his

00:18:57

entourage renounced him, and how the

00:19:00

apostles of their time from Jesus, you remember,

00:19:03

betrayed him, with the exception of some there

00:19:06

Pompeo As you said everyone said that he is

00:19:09

not suitable at all for such a

00:19:12

position and yet we return to this

00:19:16

situation Why is he still

00:19:19

so popular We live in a time of

00:19:22

new information technologies in a time

00:19:25

when people are looking for easy answers to

00:19:27

difficult questions in the time when you don't want

00:19:30

to follow any

00:19:31

cause-and-effect relationships and complex

00:19:34

processes, and people like Donald Trump

00:19:36

meet certain expectations of a

00:19:39

large part of society, that's why they

00:19:42

remain I would say

00:19:45

favorites for many years, you know that

00:19:47

even after

00:19:49

his death, Volodymyr Zhirinovsky remains the most popular

00:19:51

politician in Russia What do the Russians say in response

00:19:53

to the sociologists, who would they like to see

00:19:56

there as the president of Russia if there was no

00:19:59

Putin, a huge number of people

00:20:02

answer to Volodymyr Zhirinovsky, and

00:20:04

when they are told, Well, he is dead, they

00:20:06

say, Well, what is the secret

00:20:09

of popularity and a politician like

00:20:12

Zhirinovsky

00:20:14

can be called Trump even if they die, their

00:20:17

popularity will not change from this in the

00:20:19

eyes of those who want to see them at the head of the

00:20:23

state, because it is to some extent a

00:20:26

religious irrational

00:20:31

cult, yes, and of course here it should be

00:20:34

noted separately that

00:20:37

he can count on the support of

00:20:40

even 30% of the American population there

00:20:43

but according to precisely such intricacies of the

00:20:45

American electoral system ellekoral

00:20:48

kolege Yes, I don't know how to translate it into Ukrainian, the

00:20:50

college is the election of the voters.

00:21:04

in

00:21:08

2-3 million voters in total Yes, we must

00:21:11

remember that in the total number of voters

00:21:14

in the United States, Donald Trump has never

00:21:16

won any

00:21:17

presidential election and will not win,

00:21:19

of course

00:21:21

he will win by Vitali.

00:21:28

questions

00:21:32

about Macron's statement, we will

00:21:35

continue to analyze it simply in the

00:21:37

dry residue. Was it even worth

00:21:39

saying what he said, because it

00:21:41

led to the fact that Scholz

00:21:44

began to refuse any

00:21:47

responsibility for the presence of some

00:21:50

soldiers on the

00:21:52

territory of the military territory of Ukraine

00:21:54

but he said earlier that there will be no

00:21:57

soldiers on the territory of Ukraine. I don't understand

00:21:59

what we are talking about, well, some people have started

00:22:01

to refuse, who have always

00:22:02

said before that this is unacceptable. I think that

00:22:06

President Gran did everything absolutely

00:22:07

right because he created a situation of

00:22:09

strategic uncertainty for Putin

00:22:12

that alone the leaders of the Western countries

00:22:14

say no, we will not send our

00:22:16

military, and others say it is a good

00:22:18

idea, we will do it, and there is a situation of

00:22:20

strategic uncertainty, if

00:22:22

Macron had not said this, they would think that everyone

00:22:24

thinks the same as Scholz and not the same as Macron,

00:22:27

yes, yes, do you think so? you

00:22:30

that Russia is generally serious about

00:22:33

Macron because they react to Scholz

00:22:36

and intimidate Scholz

00:22:37

much more actively than they

00:22:40

generally react to what

00:22:42

Macron says to me, this leads me to

00:22:44

think that in general they are not serious about the

00:22:46

statements of the

00:22:48

French leader. I don't understand why

00:22:51

Macron is different from Scholz when

00:22:54

they say something about Germany.

00:22:56

They only mean the

00:22:58

delivery of Taurus missiles there, but from the point of view of

00:23:02

opportunities, France and Germany have

00:23:03

approximately the same opportunities to

00:23:05

help Ukraine, and I think

00:23:09

that the Russians are quite serious about the

00:23:12

history of

00:23:13

with what we call strategic

00:23:16

uncertainty, it is not for nothing that they

00:23:18

responded so sharply to Macron that it would

00:23:21

lead to a nuclear war, if they were not

00:23:24

nervous, they would not have used

00:23:25

such

00:23:26

intimidation.

00:23:29

This is a step that changed everything in this

00:23:33

situation. Because in response to

00:23:35

Putin's strategic uncertainty, there

00:23:37

were on the strategic uncertainty of

00:23:40

the event

00:23:43

Yes, Mr. Vitaly, the last question is

00:23:45

short regarding the initiative that I have been

00:23:48

hearing for some time to not recognize the

00:23:50

legitimacy of the Russian elections and the

00:23:53

legitimacy of Putin himself, of course,

00:23:55

according to this very logic.

00:24:01

Putin is

00:24:03

absolutely not bothered by the recognition of his

00:24:05

legitimacy by Western countries with which

00:24:06

he has practically no real

00:24:08

political contacts, and of course this

00:24:10

will close the door to any negotiations from the

00:24:12

point of view of the West for the future, because you

00:24:14

cannot talk to an illegitimate

00:24:15

president and the global south will

00:24:18

recognize Putin As he admits, this is also

00:24:21

absolutely obvious. So I don’t think that

00:24:23

this will significantly change anything for

00:24:25

Putin himself, but if the Russians are now saying all the time

00:24:28

that in order to hold any

00:24:30

negotiations, Ukraine must cancel

00:24:34

President Zelenskyi’s Decree on the impossibility of

00:24:36

such negotiations with Vladimir Putin, then

00:24:38

in the following in the episodes of this tragedy, she

00:24:41

will demand from the Western world recognition of

00:24:43

Putin's legitimacy in order for

00:24:45

any peace process to begin at all, this

00:24:47

should also be remembered Mr. Vitaly

00:24:51

[music]

00:24:53

[applause]

00:24:56

thank you than

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