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0:00

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4:54

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10:15

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17:48

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22:14

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24:53

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26:05

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29:03

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31:34

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33:17

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36:44

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40:05

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44:20

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48:42

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51:40

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1:01:24

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1:02:25

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1:04:17

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1:05:30

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1:07:19

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1:09:56

Президентские амбиции Арестовича и неполитические пути помощи стране.

1:27:08

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00:00:00

Hello everyone, the next episode of the

00:00:01

Life bytas program is on air. Today my

00:00:03

guest is one of the best military experts I

00:00:05

know, Alexey Aristovich Alexey.

00:00:08

Good afternoon, good to see good de Yes,

00:00:12

good view outside the window, good mood, I

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see, I’m glad to see. Haven’t talked for a long time;

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questions, to be honest, a lot Alexey,

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a lot of things changed in our last

00:00:24

meeting that we had last

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year, we then talked about a counter-

00:00:30

offensive, we even assumed that even you

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said that a counter-offensive does not

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mean in a modern war, it does not mean that

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it has been announced, it is starting, it is already

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underway in fact

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But there is a lot of water a lot of

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things

00:00:44

have changed since then, but at the beginning of the program

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I would, of course, like to first clarify

00:00:50

the situation in general that has developed at

00:00:53

the

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moment, today information is being received to the VCU, it seems that they are

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handing over or there are quite

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intense military operations going on there, I would like to

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just at the beginning of the program a

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little bit about operational situation, what is

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happening now on the front line on the

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line of contact between the troops, now the

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pendulum has swung in the other direction for a long

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time, we were advancing, we talked last time

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when the counter-offensive was

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just beginning on June 4, it began

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formally, but it was not announced, and

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today, more than six months later, the phase is

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already fa the offensive

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belongs to the Russian Federation, that

00:01:33

is, we have exhausted our capabilities

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to advance; we have stopped. As often happens in

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military affairs,

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they went on the defensive from October 4, approximately they

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began to attack in different sectors, the front is

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1300 km internal; the

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hottest sections are the

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Kupinsky Vka, of course, south of

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Novomikhailovka And here is rabotino this is already

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where we were advancing, the Russians are counter-

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attacking, according to some data, they have already

00:01:57

taken work that requires clarification

00:01:59

and have prepared a serious group

00:02:02

that should go further to advance,

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such groups are everywhere,

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including Avdiivka, including

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Kupinsky, hundreds of armored vehicles,

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artillery tanks, and so on, they

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prepared well and used the time

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which was almost 9 months before the counter-offensive

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and the time for the counter-offensive

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in order to form reserves

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that were now thrown into battle and due to

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numerical superiority. And often Cast

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superiority because

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their quantity is also quality and

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when Well, you have one shell there against

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20 shells against one of your

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opponents understands that the quality of everything that is

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happening is changing. Ukrainians,

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accordingly, we are in a phase where we have

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been sitting for several months without Western

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assistance, in particular without American assistance, we have a

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catastrophic shortage of shells and

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some

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other mediums, which certainly affects the

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conduct of hostilities. We have returned

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to the phase in which we were in April, May,

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June and even July of the 2nd year

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when we spent almost all the weapons and

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ammunition to stop the

00:03:13

Russian army from being defeated in the first month.

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And then when it gathered its forces, found

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reserves and went on the offensive, since the

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beginning of April we were practically without missiles

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from the

00:03:25

troops and there were episodes when,

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during the battle for the village, for example,

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along the whole front, along the

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front as a whole, they fired 60,000 shells per day,

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we responded with three, at best,

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using some kind of NZ There and so on,

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now the situation is approximately

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60,000 They, of course they don’t release, but

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they release 20 completely. And we

00:03:47

release. Well, maybe there are very

00:03:51

few, I won’t name the numbers because well,

00:03:53

many times more than should be called. Yes, no

00:03:56

need, we have a catastrophic situation, we

00:03:58

don’t have enough shells and, as always, we pay

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for all the infantry with our own blood,

00:04:02

directly stopping enemy

00:04:05

The only thing that has changed and from our

00:04:07

Russian side there are a lot of

00:04:09

Drones, including fpv Drones of the so-

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called this is almost 90% of the battle of

00:04:15

collisions if it is not a city or nearby

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in the field this is a war Drones equipment does not

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have time to reach the front line people

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do not have time to reach or if they have time, then it’s

00:04:23

all the same and precedes the drones; they

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accompany the drones and fight off the drones;

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some clashes look like this; drones from the

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Russian side are on our

00:04:32

stronghold; drones from our side

00:04:34

may not reach the shooting battle; they’re all howling with drones; and so the

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drones are what allows us to restrain

00:04:38

the Russians. Because if there was a situation

00:04:42

without Drones now with so many

00:04:44

shells and everything else that

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we have, or rather which we don’t have. It must be

00:04:49

said correctly, the situation would be

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much worse now Avdeevka

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Avdeevka

00:04:55

was started to be stormed somewhere almost a

00:04:59

month ago before the Russians

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troops have been accumulating for a long time, this is a

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fairly fortified point, since the

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fourteenth year it has represented the most

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likely fortified point on our entire

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front, a serious defense center is a

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system of defense nodes, and here they are

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now, that is, they are fighting with

00:05:18

ammunition and food stored or captured from the enemy. There and so

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on and so forth then one of

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our best assault brigs, the third

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assault brig, was introduced there - these are former Azov

00:05:27

mobilized ones, which Azov selected

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themselves, trained and so on, its commander

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Colonel Andrei Beletsky,

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they are guys who know how to fight, let’s

00:05:36

say so But even for them it’s hard to contain

00:05:40

the situation because well, there are

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about seven Russians against them brigades there are

00:05:44

much smaller than ours Well,

00:05:47

the numbers there are higher yes Well of

00:05:49

course numerical superiority has been created In addition,

00:05:51

the Russians are very actively

00:05:52

using guided bombs And in general the

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Avdievka bombs are closer to Donetsk, they did not

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cross the

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front line, the plane from Donetsk is

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dropping bombs and I I’ve just been to Avdeevka many times

00:06:03

so that you understand that this is a very

00:06:05

small tiny city, strong, and

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now so many of these Bombs and artillery

00:06:09

are flying into it, into the plant, into the entire defense center, that well,

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you can be three times a

00:06:19

professional, but it doesn’t matter whether it’s a bomb or a

00:06:22

shell how much with how much are you

00:06:29

all Therefore, there is a difficult situation there in the

00:06:33

morning information there the situation

00:06:35

changes quickly by the hour in the morning there is

00:06:37

information when you and I write down

00:06:38

that we left the Zenit position which

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was to the south If you saw a diagram like this

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it was almost engulfed by the enemy

00:06:44

second Yes, a distant position we are starting to

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retreat from some positions that

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were as far as possible from the exit from the corridor and now the task is to hold the knots,

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or rather to hold the exit point so that the

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troops can

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We are fighting to hold or even

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expand the corridor, mainly to

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hold so that the troops can

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leave unhindered, whether a decision has been made is

00:07:07

unknown but the withdrawal has begun. By the

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time we speak, everything may already be

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over because there is a very

00:07:14

small area, a city much smaller than

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Bakhmut, for example, and incomparable,

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and Well, everything can already happen by the time the recording comes out, it will be

00:07:28

edited, the

00:07:30

audience will watch from the future,

00:07:32

ours, they will already know how it

00:07:34

ended It’s clear And in the other

00:07:37

direction, what’s

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happening is that they’re pressing very hard near

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Novo Mikhailovka, it’s not

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that far south of Avdeevka in order to cut off the

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so-called Ugledarsky ledge and

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move forward, that is, the general

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plan is that they’re moving in the direction of

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Pokrovsk. This corresponds to the political

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tasks set by the Russian Federation.

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which says that their task is to liberate liberate

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in quotes to seize for us the

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Donetsk and Lugansk regions completely

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completely within the administrative borders along the

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administrative borders the same

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Zaporozhye but also Kherson Kherson

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is difficult because the Kherson part is on the

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right bank high they cannot take

00:08:18

krynki a village that will hold a

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small number of ours sang, but due to the fact

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that we are on the low

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coast of Russia, the Russians are storming

00:08:26

our artillery and drones on the high Yeah,

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we see and very well help our

00:08:32

fighters who are there directly on the

00:08:34

bridgehead and unsuccessful assaults have been going on

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for several months in a row with very

00:08:38

large losses for Russia in general, they

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don’t take losses into account, they are now pushing

00:08:42

forward just in a very characteristic

00:08:45

manner, the same thing under Kupinsky there is a

00:08:47

very serious group, according to the data

00:08:49

which was called there, several hundred

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tanks, armored vehicles, several hundred up to 40

00:08:54

personnel. They are actively pressing, they

00:08:56

want to capture Pinsk, this is large There is a

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railway

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junction

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and it is

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also actually a transition to the other side of the

00:09:09

river, Old Askol,

00:09:11

for our creation of conditions to

00:09:13

develop the offensive there already in place on the

00:09:16

right bank,

00:09:19

so for them it is very profitable, they

00:09:21

do everything to get in by attacking the two

00:09:28

main ones, or rather Bakhmut, north- east of

00:09:30

Bakhmut And there from Lisichansk from

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Severodonetsk I want to cut off this ledge

00:09:35

So that is, four somewhere main

00:09:38

points of application of efforts,

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serious groups have been created everywhere that

00:09:42

represent, well, several

00:09:45

Russian armies in total Clearly, two

00:09:49

armies somewhere, two somewhere in the direction

00:09:51

plus -minus, this is all very conditional. Well,

00:09:52

in this very general overview, somewhere

00:09:54

like this it turns out that these are serious forces and it is

00:09:56

difficult to resist them, especially without

00:09:58

American help, the key to the situation

00:10:00

is the lack of American help, the

00:10:02

lack of the required amount of

00:10:03

ammunition, missiles and others, and so far there

00:10:06

they are going into battle, we are losing sections of the front

00:10:09

and are standing in very difficult conditions.

00:10:11

Our troops are in very difficult conditions and this

00:10:14

just begs the question. Last

00:10:18

week when I

00:10:20

arrived. Well, in principle, I was already expecting the

00:10:22

expected message that Valery

00:10:25

Zaluzhny is leaving the post of commander and will take

00:10:28

his place Alexander Syrsky arrives

00:10:32

and at the same time this happens at the moment

00:10:35

when the Russian troops are essentially advancing.

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At such a moment a

00:10:40

change occurs, although I’m

00:10:42

already saying it now, they call it

00:10:45

expected, how logical was this

00:10:48

change and how much of the same is there?

00:10:51

still an old saying at the

00:10:53

crossing they don’t change horses at all

00:10:55

it’s like changing command in a dangerous time

00:10:58

how justified it is And

00:11:01

in general What is the strategy of the Ukrainian

00:11:04

troops at the moment what is being done

00:11:08

What is the idea What to do next look at the

00:11:12

ideological or strategic

00:11:13

conflict between the commander-in-chief and the

00:11:16

supreme commander We have had it for a long time,

00:11:17

it was materially identified at

00:11:19

the material level, visibly conclusively on

00:11:22

November 1, 2003, when Zaluzhny

00:11:24

published his famous article in the economist

00:11:26

and said that the

00:11:27

offensive was over, our counteroffensive

00:11:30

was unsuccessful due to the

00:11:32

technical impasse and the parity of the parties that

00:11:34

arose on the front line. Following the example of the

00:11:36

First Worldwide when everyone

00:11:38

fights courageously but no one can advance

00:11:40

because there are no means of advancement

00:11:41

that allow them to overcome the deep

00:11:43

defense created by the enemy, yeah,

00:11:46

Zelensky categorically disagreed with this,

00:11:47

they got into such public

00:11:49

debates, even polemicize in absentia [

00:11:52

music]

00:11:55

the opportunity to talk directly all this

00:11:57

lasted for some time where -at the

00:11:59

beginning of December, that is, a month It took the

00:12:01

Supreme Commander-in-Chief the President

00:12:03

to say Well, okay, we are

00:12:05

on the defensive Yes, this really

00:12:07

means that and for a month we lived in a situation

00:12:10

where we did not agree on the positions of the one

00:12:12

who commands the army and the one who

00:12:14

commands the one who commands the army this is

00:12:16

not normal and cannot continue for a long time in an

00:12:17

obviously obvious way. It

00:12:20

seems to me that there was still a fundamental

00:12:24

discrepancy in the further strategy of

00:12:25

waging war, confirmation of this is that

00:12:28

one Flock is laid down, which he

00:12:30

published before leaving and where he directly

00:12:33

said that the army will do its job

00:12:35

only if the state provides it in

00:12:37

terms of material and in terms of

00:12:39

people, the key for us was that

00:12:41

this conflict resulted

00:12:44

in the need to mobilize

00:12:46

500,000 people, half a million of

00:12:48

which was announced. And even

00:12:50

about it, the discussion was very difficult

00:12:53

because Zaluzhny was released for a

00:12:56

press conference and ordered to go at the

00:12:58

last moment then he carried it out

00:13:01

very honorably, then Zelensky,

00:13:04

who first pushed him out, then

00:13:06

began to take over the communication himself, for

00:13:08

which, by the way, honor and praise to him because

00:13:10

the president should not run away from

00:13:11

responsibility. But the point is,

00:13:15

this is what the possibilities for

00:13:16

mobilization are that we desperately need

00:13:18

limited primarily financially

00:13:20

yesterday, the Hetmans, the Chairman of the

00:13:22

Verkhovna Rada Committee on Taxes and Duties, he

00:13:24

said that tax policy, he said

00:13:27

that 720

00:13:29

for the mobilization of 5 people who have

00:13:32

absolutely nowhere to take, given the still

00:13:34

lack of American assistance, that’s

00:13:37

the state of our military economy and

00:13:39

announced not even popular solution

00:13:41

But the question in the World Cup Zelensky named a figure

00:13:42

at a press conference: one mobilized

00:13:44

soldier is a million Green to

00:13:46

put him in line, put on shoes, and so

00:13:47

on, so

00:13:49

Ukraine is now undergoing a very

00:13:52

serious exam, an exam that will

00:13:55

cost

00:13:57

perhaps part of the territory, an exam for

00:14:00

statehood, a solvency test,

00:14:01

which is that it is necessary to

00:14:02

mobilize several hundred

00:14:04

thousand people somewhere, take them and mobilize them, but for

00:14:06

this there is neither finance nor organizational

00:14:08

capacity, there is no possibility even of

00:14:10

high-quality training in training

00:14:11

centers because their capacity is

00:14:12

significantly less than even 50,000 at a

00:14:15

time, and besides, they are under fire

00:14:17

are located, that is, the accumulation of troops and

00:14:19

training. This is a constant threat of Russian

00:14:21

strikes, this is a very difficult situation. For

00:14:24

comparison, I can say that all the training

00:14:26

centers of the UGM of Russia

00:14:29

and all of Russia, yes. Or 300, this must be

00:14:34

taught somewhere else. That is, it is too long to

00:14:37

fight. This is very long story and

00:14:41

Apparently they did not agree with the president. They did

00:14:45

not agree on numbers or on the understanding of

00:14:47

where and how to use these troops. The

00:14:49

official political slogan of the

00:14:50

president remains the border de year everything is

00:14:54

red Toms he understands that they are

00:14:57

not in principle because for this you need to come

00:15:00

from then take 1,700 troops that

00:15:03

will be armed with

00:15:04

first-class will not end in the

00:15:06

next 2 years first-class is like the

00:15:08

American Army Then we can

00:15:10

talk about the borders of the first of the year which,

00:15:12

in principle, is not expected, and this

00:15:14

same slogan is not removed, it

00:15:16

gives rise to such

00:15:18

a little schizophrenic state in society When everyone

00:15:21

has relatives in

00:15:22

the army, everyone without exception, everyone has

00:15:26

dead wounded friends, they

00:15:27

understand perfectly well that the princes of the year are out of the

00:15:29

question, but it is officially

00:15:31

declared that we Wow, Victory is the way out,

00:15:33

so the Tsar gave an interview as but

00:15:35

appointed and said that the war must

00:15:36

end within the borders of the ninety-first

00:15:38

year, then it will end, this is a very

00:15:40

strange thesis because no one

00:15:42

guarantees that it will end even

00:15:43

after reaching the borders of Dejanovo,

00:15:46

the war has a sum of contradictions

00:15:47

that does not concern the borders, but is

00:15:50

much larger and wider

00:15:53

and has been shot down. our optics and rhetoric are confused,

00:15:56

that is, people understand perfectly well

00:15:59

that what the military and the

00:16:02

highest civilian authorities are saying now does not

00:16:03

correspond to the real situation,

00:16:05

their mood is not added to the desire for

00:16:07

mobile phones.

00:16:11

in this

00:16:13

sense, Yes, and as you understand, the lack of

00:16:15

help does not add it, in general, we are

00:16:17

going through, as the Western press writes,

00:16:19

through a severe internal

00:16:20

political crisis, and so on. I think that

00:16:22

Zaluzhny. I don’t know this, but I think this is

00:16:24

my guess that Zaluzhny

00:16:26

fundamentally disagreed on

00:16:27

several points.

00:16:29

Well, here you can understand Zelensky,

00:16:31

well, how to work with a person who

00:16:34

doesn’t listen to you, as it were, and

00:16:37

whose friend has a different strategy and

00:16:39

who would like to pursue a fundamentally different

00:16:42

war policy, as it were, and logic,

00:16:45

but he fires him and appoints a person

00:16:46

who will to carry out his orders,

00:16:48

at the same time, a whole clan of generals is changing,

00:16:49

that is, Zaluzhny’s team is being

00:16:51

removed from the armed forces. Yes, they are

00:16:53

now all undergoing a military medical

00:16:55

commission, they will most likely be fired and

00:16:57

rise from X young general

00:17:00

colonels with very positive reviews

00:17:02

in the troops because they rose

00:17:05

on the wave 14 years, for example, the same

00:17:07

Sukharevsky, who was the first battalion

00:17:25

commander to open up for his comrades. Since then, he commanded very well, then he fought very well, then he was

00:17:28

appointed deputy

00:17:29

commander-in-chief who should

00:17:31

develop the direction of unmanned

00:17:32

aerial vehicles; we have created them

00:17:34

as a separate branch of the military. So some of

00:17:38

them, for example, are

00:17:42

shrouded in different the kind of rumors that

00:17:46

need to be verified, for example,

00:17:48

Syrsky himself throws everything at him, and the

00:17:50

Butcher

00:17:52

and relatives in Russia, mom, brother, dad,

00:17:55

brother in Vladimir, and so on, graduated from

00:17:57

Moscow about the military, and so on,

00:17:59

the truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle Uh-huh,

00:18:02

Syrsky, of course, not a meznik, but he a typical

00:18:04

representative is the commander of the old Soviet

00:18:05

school and questions arise whether the

00:18:09

Soviet school is suitable for Ukraine, its approaches are

00:18:11

not a step back, and so on, this is what we

00:18:12

now see in Avdievka, this is when

00:18:14

elite units are thrown into a city

00:18:17

that is in a hopeless

00:18:19

situation in a city that is

00:18:22

still facing surrender and hold on until

00:18:24

the last Well, the last last, this

00:18:27

raises questions

00:18:29

because many have already considered

00:18:31

there a repetition of Mariupol in Mariupol

00:18:33

Azov which Denis Prokopenko commander of the

00:18:36

radish Yes they actually put Yes here

00:18:39

many bloggers began to wonder if you do

00:18:40

n’t want Maybe you want to

00:18:42

put a third assault There just like that

00:18:44

That is, our

00:18:47

political and moral situation is extremely tense and

00:18:49

the worst assumptions are immediately put forward.

00:18:51

I don’t think that anyone

00:18:53

specifically wants to put them there, but

00:18:55

the use of an elite attack

00:18:56

unit in a situation where it

00:18:58

can do little due to the total

00:18:59

superiority of opponents of aviation in the

00:19:01

artillery, the establishment of them is actually a

00:19:02

trap for me, a very dubious

00:19:04

question that needs explanation, so

00:19:07

we immediately see the command style of the new commander-in-

00:19:08

chief Uh-huh, and before that we must say

00:19:11

that Syrsky is the commander-in-chief who,

00:19:13

or rather the general who really

00:19:16

carried out the Kiev operation

00:19:18

successfully, really carried out the Kharkov operation

00:19:20

the offensive is very successful, but he

00:19:23

also loses the sixth city in a row in the east

00:19:25

according to the same scheme because he is

00:19:27

a land howl,

00:19:29

yes he is near the joint venture troops he commanded

00:19:31

in the east. Yes, in the east it was

00:19:33

Syrsky who lost the popasny

00:19:35

solidar Lisichansk bakhmut and Severodonetsk

00:19:39

and now he

00:19:41

is losing Therefore, for two successful

00:19:44

operations he has six major losses and this

00:19:47

ratio and action is what in

00:19:49

Avdievka began to make

00:19:51

society and the army think very much about the

00:19:54

style of work of the new

00:19:56

commander, the future will of course show,

00:19:58

but now people are very cautious

00:20:01

and it is Avdievka became such a stone, on

00:20:05

the other hand, it must be said that he

00:20:06

understood perfectly well when he took on the

00:20:08

responsibilities of the commander-in-chief that he

00:20:09

would soon lose

00:20:10

Avdeevka. That is, he understood what he was

00:20:13

going to and that the responsibility would fall on

00:20:15

him and everyone, of course, would compare him to

00:20:16

Zaluzhny and so on so what what what And

00:20:19

this man

00:20:20

has the decisiveness of the king I know him Personally,

00:20:24

he has a great advantage for

00:20:26

politicians is that he

00:20:28

will not argue, he will carry out the

00:20:30

strategy that will be said, he has

00:20:33

long determined for himself that commands the

00:20:35

politicians Well, as it should be in

00:20:36

reality and the military the military must

00:20:38

carry out this by the way, another

00:20:40

feature of Syrsky has no

00:20:42

political rating And Zaluzhny According to the

00:20:44

question, the political rating is twice as

00:20:45

high as the current president, he is a major

00:20:47

political figure, in fact, they see him

00:20:50

as the next qi Yes, and this too couldn’t, I don’t

00:20:53

think that was the main reason, but it

00:20:55

couldn’t help but aggravate, not be such a very

00:20:58

serious subtext in the relationship between

00:20:59

Zelensky and Zaluzhny, because

00:21:00

people were talking, one of whom is

00:21:02

already leaving, in fact, one way or another,

00:21:05

Zelensky’s ratings are falling, and

00:21:08

steadily by five percent per month Judging

00:21:11

by the polls, it is unlikely that he

00:21:13

will be able to reverse this trend, but it is clear that all the hardships of the

00:21:15

war affect the main

00:21:18

responsibility, the war is organized very

00:21:20

simply, the elders are always responsible for everything, and in

00:21:22

Zaluzhny, on the contrary, they are growing

00:21:25

And despite their embrace the heroes of Ukraine handed each other

00:21:29

and so on, they maintain

00:21:32

positive human relations,

00:21:34

but the crowds of these observers and

00:21:37

politicians who endlessly pedaled this

00:21:39

topic created an informational and

00:21:41

moral background that, of course, could not

00:21:43

affect their relations, even though

00:21:44

they treat others

00:21:45

normally as human beings And they are able to

00:21:47

hug, so this was also a factor

00:21:48

that must be said, but the main Factor

00:21:51

I think is simply a fundamental

00:21:53

human disagreement with the further

00:21:54

strategy. But the

00:21:57

political rating has no

00:21:59

direct political ambitions. There are no declared ones. No

00:22:00

one is measuring him; he is not

00:22:02

measuring his rating; he is a military man. He

00:22:03

does what he was ordered but I’m

00:22:05

saying the style of how he performs

00:22:07

made everyone wary now let

00:22:09

’s see how the event ends And what

00:22:11

will happen next It’s clear, you know, here’s something else

00:22:14

I pointed out here from Kazakhstan, in

00:22:16

any case It’s clear We

00:22:18

’re quite far away geographically, but we’re

00:22:22

still watching everything that’s happening

00:22:25

it seems that in Ukraine

00:22:28

today there is a loss of unity. Yes, there is

00:22:30

unity in opinion, unity in positions.

00:22:32

Yes, it’s as if everyone is starting among themselves

00:22:34

and they are just saying

00:22:37

that after Zalozh resigned,

00:22:40

he turns into a political figure and

00:22:42

again they talk about confrontation that

00:22:44

is, there is more talk

00:22:45

about confrontation about inconsistency

00:22:48

within the political elite in general, the elite of

00:22:51

Ukraine, the unity that was at the

00:22:54

beginning of the war in February of twenty-two is

00:22:57

not observed there for the first time,

00:23:01

this in fact also does not

00:23:03

add optimism, and maybe this is precisely a

00:23:05

consequence of the fact that The West also

00:23:09

probably feels some kind of uncertainty about who to

00:23:10

talk to. Where to move next, they

00:23:12

also probably don’t see a strategy. Maybe

00:23:14

this is a principle. Yes. There are two aspects. The

00:23:17

first unity is definitely lost;

00:23:19

we have opened all the old wounds that have accumulated over

00:23:22

centuries and the main lines of conflict are

00:23:24

Russian-speaking, Ukrainian-speaking there, and and

00:23:29

there are those who are for peace and those who are for war to a

00:23:31

victorious end, the third line is those

00:23:34

who left and those who

00:23:35

stayed, it must be said that the authorities with their

00:23:38

careless rhetoric, in my opinion, are not

00:23:40

entirely rational, they aggravate these

00:23:42

conflicts, several statements by the

00:23:43

president regarding those who left and those who

00:23:45

remained that these are citizens, and it’s

00:23:47

unclear who actually I translate into

00:23:49

simple language, they brought it to the point that even

00:23:51

Elena Zelenskaya The First Lady

00:23:52

objected to him publicly, she said, I believe

00:23:54

that all Ukrainians Yes, even those who left then, that’s

00:23:57

why But this is a sharp division between those who

00:23:59

serve and those who do not serve here is the fourth

00:24:01

line, it leads to the fact

00:24:03

that, well, society is really split

00:24:06

along many lines. There’s also the question,

00:24:10

which is also what we talked about at the beginning

00:24:12

when goals are declared that

00:24:14

cannot be achieved and a good face is put on a

00:24:15

bad game, although everyone knows that

00:24:17

the game is bad and mine is good This only

00:24:20

aggravates the pressure on all lines of cleavage

00:24:22

because the Central line sounds like they are

00:24:24

lying to us, but things are much much

00:24:29

worse, which creates the ground for

00:24:31

many rumors, contradictions, and

00:24:33

any conspiracy theories that are

00:24:34

immediately used by some of the policies

00:24:36

used by the enemy through

00:24:38

information operations and so on In

00:24:40

general, we are like a broken cauldron where

00:24:42

One part, or rather, is

00:24:44

sick, this very soup where One part

00:24:46

hates the other now Yes, we have a very

00:24:48

difficult situation in this sense. So

00:24:51

the lines are really getting worse. In addition,

00:24:53

there is also the Central line of split,

00:24:55

Zelensky’s strategy radically does not

00:24:56

coincide with the strategy and the West

00:24:59

Uh-huh in the West,

00:25:02

perhaps only one wants a war to a victorious end Britain she

00:25:04

she For example, the

00:25:05

United States of Europe

00:25:07

insists on this The international bureaucracy would also

00:25:10

quite

00:25:11

want the negotiations that

00:25:13

Putin insists on publicly says I generally want

00:25:15

Negotiation Yes Putin in Carlson’s interview

00:25:18

He said several times Yes, I am ready for

00:25:20

negotiations Yes, and Zelensky Yes

00:25:23

Zelensky made a decision and approved it with

00:25:26

his decree and the order of the

00:25:28

National Defense Security Council that it is

00:25:29

impossible to conduct any negotiations with Putin at all,

00:25:30

this is what Putin pointed out in

00:25:32

his interview with Carlson and it turns out that the

00:25:37

West sees whom between the West and

00:25:39

Zelensky the same thing is happening

00:25:41

between what between Zelensky and the pledged,

00:25:42

that is, a complete discrepancy in strategies

00:25:44

or a significant discrepancy in strategies

00:25:46

in which a normal dialogue is impossible

00:25:48

b the talk of any help becomes

00:25:50

problematic, but it is very difficult for you

00:25:52

to help a person who says that

00:25:54

I will send your help not as you would

00:25:55

like and count on your price nuno

00:25:59

you let's let's let's Yes, we have

00:26:01

international problems coming, we'll be

00:26:04

very

00:26:05

focused that there has been no American assistance for

00:26:07

2 months. It's critical, it's just

00:26:10

critical and it's not known when they will give it. We

00:26:13

see what's happening in the USA and Will they give it

00:26:15

at all?

00:26:16

Therefore, the prospects are very complex, I would

00:26:20

say so,

00:26:26

even if at the same time our Supreme Power

00:26:29

demonstrates

00:26:30

that optimism and the desire to reach the borders of the

00:26:33

ninety-first year when

00:26:36

they would overcome all these moral dilemmas

00:26:37

much easier if they

00:26:39

started talking to society as with

00:26:40

adults and tell the complete truth,

00:26:43

but we carefully pretend that they are

00:26:46

still pretending that everything is fine. Great

00:26:48

Marquise, so temporary difficulties and then

00:26:50

we will definitely be here.

00:26:52

Well, as for American assistance,

00:26:55

last week it also seemed to be

00:26:56

approved that there is help

00:26:59

uh the whole case yes about passed one

00:27:02

of the repartitions it is clear there will be necessary Yes And there

00:27:04

remains a congress in the congress and in

00:27:06

the senate the democratic majority in

00:27:08

the congress is republican so how

00:27:09

they will vote is not at all

00:27:11

obvious we will see, but I want to

00:27:13

emphasize that even when they give us

00:27:15

American aid, firstly, it

00:27:17

will be given as a one-time thing, it will not be at all the

00:27:19

level of support that was a year ago.

00:27:21

These 2 years are not at all the same,

00:27:25

it is incomparable. It will be missed and secondly, it will be at least not all of it will be

00:27:27

military, yeah. There are less than 10 billion out of 60

00:27:30

billion e is for purely military assistance,

00:27:33

so even this, Well, by no means will not

00:27:37

radically correct the situation, it will simply give the

00:27:39

opportunity to fight further, if it

00:27:41

is not there or if it drags on for a long time,

00:27:43

the situation could be catastrophic, the front

00:27:44

may collapse on a couple of sectors

00:27:46

at once, the enemy may slip in front of a

00:27:47

kilometer at 50 This is what, in modern

00:27:50

times, means that it will have the

00:27:52

first operational success during the entire

00:27:54

war and will have an even more serious impact on the

00:27:56

morale of

00:27:58

the front and on the international situation of the

00:28:00

people and on the international

00:28:01

position of Ukraine, so I see a way out in

00:28:04

correcting the information policy and

00:28:06

starting a serious dialogue with a

00:28:08

serious society, but we need to come to unity.

00:28:11

Yes, we need to agree on some common denominator

00:28:13

first inside. Yes, a house

00:28:15

split inside, like a kingdom split

00:28:18

inside, cannot stand. We know this, and the nuance is

00:28:21

that we need to find moral strength in ourselves

00:28:24

because at the price of what the

00:28:25

president will say in this case how but

00:28:28

the commander as a result of a serious

00:28:29

dialogue first Can raise

00:28:31

a lot of questions in society the beginning of a dialogue if

00:28:33

it starts, that is, society will begin to

00:28:35

ask questions: How did they allow the war to happen in the first place

00:28:36

and how did they prepare for it for this

00:28:38

war Why are there no fortifications at Vyra there and

00:28:40

many, many other questions that,

00:28:42

firstly, it will be difficult for him to answer, and

00:28:43

secondly, they may cost him his political

00:28:45

career Uh-huh And I think that the contradictions

00:28:48

lie in the fact that concern for a possible

00:28:50

future political career is clearly

00:28:53

tied to the bravura slogan about the borders of the

00:28:56

ninety-first year and reluctance conduct a

00:28:58

serious, responsible dialogue with

00:29:00

society, which will only

00:29:02

aggravate the situation. And now we take this:

00:29:04

we have had a Verkhovna Rada for almost six months, well,

00:29:07

a little less than a month, six

00:29:10

months short of a month and a half, it has exceeded its

00:29:13

powers in terms of 28 network elections,

00:29:15

now we have three

00:29:18

presidential elections which were supposed to

00:29:20

pass but will not pass. And May 20 is his

00:29:23

inauguration day. That is,

00:29:25

the powers of five years actually expire,

00:29:28

and then the Ukrainian Constitution did not

00:29:30

provide for such a provision and,

00:29:33

accordingly, it becomes possible

00:29:34

for interpretations in any direction of Article 108,

00:29:36

which determines the reasons for

00:29:38

which the president it may leave, it does not

00:29:41

provide for or stay does not

00:29:45

provide for the extension of powers as

00:29:47

a result of hostilities, but

00:29:48

when in the last year no one accepted this

00:29:50

00:29:56

nito with illegitimate said Not

00:30:00

me, here we have an already crowded

00:30:03

information space officially

00:30:05

unofficially They are silently grumbling and asking

00:30:07

questions and now it turns out that

00:30:10

the president of whose tenure there will be

00:30:13

questions regarding

00:30:15

legitimacy after already after April 31,

00:30:18

this is a month and a half left. Moreover, against the

00:30:20

backdrop of the re-election of the President of the Russian

00:30:26

Federation in the first place, how will he

00:30:28

implement an unpopular decision

00:30:30

related to the mobilization of the need to

00:30:32

delay raising military

00:30:35

taxes there, tightening politics because so that

00:30:37

to carry out unpopular decisions

00:30:39

you need a lot of trust on the

00:30:40

part of society for legitimacy, and here

00:30:42

legitimacy will be suspended, let’s say, and

00:30:44

secondly, how will Western assistance go and

00:30:46

how will they communicate with the president? We will move

00:30:48

our powers to the West, with which we are already

00:30:51

full of contradictions. That is, we will have

00:30:53

this factor added. in the spring and it

00:30:55

will be added very strongly and stabilization,

00:30:58

as if he, too, is not he, he will

00:31:02

not add stability either, but on the contrary, it will strengthen all the

00:31:04

existing main four splits,

00:31:07

five including the split by the West, the

00:31:09

problem will be further strengthened, that

00:31:12

is, we are entering the spring in such a still turbulent period, it is

00:31:14

still quite serious

00:31:16

exit I said where, but unfortunately this

00:31:18

way out could cost the president the rest of his

00:31:21

rating if he starts a serious dialogue

00:31:23

with society, a statesman, a

00:31:25

historical figure, could sacrifice

00:31:27

himself for the sake of the country. Whether Zelensky can do this is

00:31:29

unknown to anyone. Therefore, for now we are

00:31:32

watching. Well, to be honest,

00:31:35

we also see

00:31:39

and hear this rhetoric we understand what

00:31:44

people close to

00:31:46

President Zelensky’s entourage are saying that

00:31:50

elections in the country can now cause a

00:31:54

negative reaction, in fact, the country

00:31:57

is in a state of war and can

00:32:00

cause destabilization within society,

00:32:01

but on the other hand, I understand perfectly well

00:32:03

that

00:32:06

And the president should be elected elected by

00:32:10

the whole society, everyone must confirm

00:32:11

this,

00:32:13

and there must be unity within the country. And

00:32:17

at the international level, other countries

00:32:19

that sign documents must

00:32:21

sign with the legitimate president,

00:32:24

too. Whose signature is on the document, too, it’s the same

00:32:26

as if

00:32:27

American aid is not American

00:32:30

aid, it’s citizens’ money USA, they

00:32:33

will also ask some kind of answer Where did they spend the

00:32:35

money with whom Yes with whom are we talking for what who is

00:32:39

signing up for what we are signing up for, that

00:32:41

is, there are really a lot of questions

00:32:43

But the question I would like to ask is this, I

00:32:47

understand I also heard your position that

00:32:49

elections should be held looks like

00:32:52

indeed it is so, but won’t this cause

00:32:54

destabilization inside

00:32:59

I don’t see why they should cause

00:33:00

destabilization, we actually have a

00:33:02

consensus on the figure of

00:33:04

Zaluzhny, the majority of people

00:33:06

support him in the country, the majority and the

00:33:09

elections will definitely end, this is

00:33:11

understandable And here very

00:33:13

bad people arise, they will elect him I don’t think that

00:33:15

someone will fundamentally object

00:33:16

to Zaluzhny’s position. I even have a hard time

00:33:19

imagining politicians who in

00:33:20

this situation will go to the

00:33:22

polls because they will have to be

00:33:25

in polemics and then criticize him

00:33:27

and propose some kind of alternative

00:33:28

program. And this is a sure way to destroy

00:33:30

your rating in the eyes of the people who

00:33:32

now adores Zaluzhny, but that is, this is

00:33:35

political suicide, so

00:33:36

Zaluzhny can win practically without

00:33:38

alternatively now in one round Yes, in

00:33:40

one round in one round very Yes very

00:33:42

quickly specifically and so on, but here

00:33:44

or in two rounds but with almost practically

00:33:49

no alternative the situation gives rise to a

00:33:51

very bad

00:33:52

[music]

00:33:54

soil For various Innu

00:33:57

and outside Ukraine Especially considering

00:34:00

Russian information operations and

00:34:02

other pressure in this sense and other

00:34:04

enemies of Ukraine Or there are ill-wishers

00:34:06

or figures who are in a strange relationship

00:34:09

with Ukraine, for example Orban and

00:34:11

his Political Party, so this is what

00:34:14

it is very clearly

00:34:18

slowly slowly a connection is being established

00:34:20

and one day it will be established very firmly and it

00:34:23

will become a common place for salting over the

00:34:27

next d months that Zelensky needs

00:34:30

a war and a continuation of the war just

00:34:31

to maintain power such voices are

00:34:33

already heard But this is a very

00:34:36

undesirable ground for any dialogue with

00:34:39

the West is not the West of

00:34:41

the DAD and there will be a lot of speculation for the internal situation. For example,

00:34:44

some

00:34:46

political forces in Ukraine are

00:34:47

already using this slogan with

00:34:49

might and main, but they are abandoning it openly or secretly, but

00:34:52

I think that after

00:34:54

March 31 it will become a common place

00:34:57

and this will only aggravate all the processes, it will

00:35:00

only aggravate And here we need personal

00:35:03

courage from President Zelensky, a

00:35:04

lot of personal courage to seriously

00:35:06

begin a serious dialogue with society on

00:35:08

key issues, for example the issue of power

00:35:10

and the issue of future strategy. Uh-huh, but he has

00:35:13

already spoken out in principle, he also said

00:35:16

that the position is known Yes, his position

00:35:20

is known will lead to what I said

00:35:24

and it will only aggravate the situation,

00:35:27

now the

00:35:29

question arises what next after the aggravation

00:35:32

Will he change, will he find the

00:35:33

courage to change this

00:35:36

position, in fact, the split inside is

00:35:41

quite serious, but again, it can

00:35:44

all depend on the individual Yes, there is a role for the

00:35:46

individual Maybe he will behave like that story and so the

00:35:48

story from this the situation will change

00:35:51

internal issue

00:35:57

any question of help and the

00:36:00

positioning of key political

00:36:02

figures in this war for us it is therefore

00:36:06

clear that if help comes then the

00:36:08

situation will

00:36:11

push back the issue of positioning of figures the

00:36:14

solution to the issue of power and strategy of the war

00:36:16

will be resolved but with us, look two

00:36:18

main issues of power,

00:36:20

war strategy, or else I’m stuck in the fact that for someone, the

00:36:23

question of continuation

00:36:25

in power is not me who said that. I’m just

00:36:29

showing it to our viewers

00:36:31

because I respect our viewers, I want

00:36:32

them to understand the situation. But the fact

00:36:35

that this will become the subject of all sorts of

00:36:36

speculation will only making the situation more difficult

00:36:38

This I guarantee 10% Yeah,

00:36:42

another question is that regarding

00:36:45

peaceful negotiations about peace, one way or another, we all

00:36:48

know that any war, no matter how severe or

00:36:51

terrible it is, ends at the

00:36:53

negotiating table and the parties agree on something.

00:36:58

That’s your feeling. in

00:37:02

[music]

00:37:04

Ukraine How will society be disposed

00:37:07

If suddenly it understands that there

00:37:11

will be no borders in 1991, this is how it

00:37:13

will be

00:37:14

perceived. The November poll showed

00:37:17

public opinion showed that 29% of

00:37:19

Ukrainians are ready for negotiations, they

00:37:20

said

00:37:22

it, yes in November it would have

00:37:25

been so bad there was only talk about the

00:37:29

lack of American assistance. And now

00:37:30

it has been absent for a couple of months. I think

00:37:33

that the April measurements, for example, will show

00:37:36

a shift in the number of people in favor of

00:37:38

negotiations. Now the question arises if

00:37:40

it ever reaches

00:37:42

50% and we will have parallels, although 29

00:37:46

is a very large number this is a third of

00:37:47

Ukrainians in question Well, now let’s say

00:37:51

it reaches half somewhere in May

00:37:53

April and at this time we are mobilizing the bus using

00:37:57

methods that we know When

00:37:59

we have enough people on the streets Although

00:38:01

it is said that the new law on

00:38:02

mobilization should save us from

00:38:05

Well, Ukrainians don’t really believe that they

00:38:08

will be spared from this;

00:38:10

a situation arises, from their point of view, people are being

00:38:13

forcibly taken into the army and they want

00:38:15

peace negotiations; this situation is capable of

00:38:18

completely blowing up society, that is,

00:38:20

leading people to the point that they will

00:38:22

directly sabotage the mobilization or

00:38:23

will directly sabotage fulfilling

00:38:25

one's obligations is the military Well, at the front, having already

00:38:28

been sent to the front, we have brigades of

00:38:30

units in which from 30 to 70% are conscientious

00:38:32

objectors,

00:38:33

what will happen next you can only

00:38:36

imagine, that is, a person can be

00:38:37

caught, put on a uniform, brought to the front, he

00:38:39

will throw the machine gun and say I judge but I I’m

00:38:41

not participating in the war, the stability of the front, the

00:38:43

stability of our entire position,

00:38:45

internal and external, in this in this in

00:38:47

this situation, it

00:38:51

becomes very problematic if there is no

00:38:53

American help, or even if there is some,

00:38:55

but such as it is, then this is all

00:38:58

aggravated by the fact that the war is not only not I want to

00:39:00

wage, but I don’t really have anything to

00:39:02

wage war on,

00:39:04

so the question of peace every day

00:39:07

will be peace negotiations will

00:39:08

become more acute and acute

00:39:10

more serious The only way is to

00:39:12

cure or rather the scenario to correct

00:39:14

this suddenly suddenly a huge amount of

00:39:17

fundamental help of some kind for example

00:39:18

namm give 500 owl attacks and the situation at

00:39:22

the front and a lot of aviation the situation at

00:39:24

the front changes radically not in favor of the

00:39:25

enemy uh-huh Then yes but I remind you that

00:39:29

even after this you still need a

00:39:31

lot of elementary siina a lot of ankle boots a

00:39:35

lot of uniforms a lot of rations

00:39:38

a lot of machine guns a lot

00:39:40

ammunition so that you

00:39:42

won’t win the war with missiles alone. Although

00:39:43

the situation can be changed very much at the front,

00:39:45

so the situation is going in a

00:39:48

direction

00:39:49

that Well, we can’t win the war.

00:39:52

It’s obvious with this level of assistance,

00:39:55

second, there will be no borders of the year,

00:39:59

third, the question is where the front line will stop.

00:40:00

in one way or another and

00:40:03

what position Russia is in

00:40:05

and what concessions it is ready to make on

00:40:08

this matter, there are two

00:40:10

main opinions, which means two main

00:40:13

three or four main scenarios, the opinion

00:40:14

sounds like this Russia also puts a good

00:40:17

face on a bad game in fact it has

00:40:18

economic holes problems

00:40:21

[music]

00:40:25

budget consequences of sanctions that do not

00:40:27

add to the health of the Russian economy

00:40:29

do not add to the prospects of Russia itself

00:40:30

as a state So they, too, would like to

00:40:34

stop the war temporarily Because in order

00:40:37

to get rid of sanctions from sanctions

00:40:41

so as not to lead to a situation of

00:40:44

overvoltage in Russia itself Uh-huh, on the other

00:40:47

hand, there is an opinion that Russia can

00:40:49

hold out for another two years And it is ready

00:40:52

to pay a very heavy price for a

00:40:53

formal victory in the war that it

00:40:55

is waging against the West. Let’s just say that the

00:40:57

federal budget deficit of 3.23

00:41:00

trillion rubles turned out to be only part of a

00:41:03

larger hole and the consolidated budget of the

00:41:05

Russian Federation in the third year, according to a preliminary

00:41:06

estimate of the Federal Treasury, was

00:41:08

executed with a deficit of 3.91 trillion rubles,

00:41:12

which is almost twice as much as a year

00:41:13

earlier; in the twenty-second year, the deficit was

00:41:16

2.11 trillion rubles.

00:41:19

Consolidated budget revenues for the year

00:41:20

increased by 11% to expenses of

00:41:24

14.1 this shows that not everything is in order

00:41:27

with the economy, no matter what they say

00:41:29

Russian, but there is a second opinion that they are

00:41:31

stubborn and will

00:41:33

fight to the end, as it is technically

00:41:36

expressed, different towers of the Kremlin, as they

00:41:38

say, they want different things. I think

00:41:39

that the military felt the taste of success They

00:41:41

say we pushed them through the Second World War and so on,

00:41:44

but there are, for example, liberals who are very clearly

00:41:46

tied to interaction with the West,

00:41:47

there are special services that understand that

00:41:50

internal tension is growing in Russia Yeah, the question of the

00:41:52

political situation, the question of

00:41:55

re-elections,

00:41:56

the question of the possible holding of a new

00:41:59

oprichnina in Russia after Putin’s victory,

00:42:01

many are talking about purges there are no

00:42:03

new Elites and so

00:42:05

on against the background of the war, well, carry out some

00:42:09

other tasks facing Russia, it is

00:42:11

difficult to solve, we have Putin’s position,

00:42:13

it lies in the fact that he has

00:42:14

repeatedly publicly

00:42:16

said that Yes, I am ready for peace, from my

00:42:18

point of view, Putin is the key figure

00:42:20

he has two options that are equivalent for themselves.

00:42:23

He can continue to fight, he wants to

00:42:26

talk to him, but he would be happy to

00:42:27

make peace at this stage if they

00:42:29

went for peace and directly calls for him,

00:42:32

appealing to the Istanbul agreements

00:42:34

that were in March 2009, in which I

00:42:36

took part, about which I also

00:42:37

said many times, that’s why he has

00:42:39

two Well, in almost equivalent

00:42:42

scenarios, if you want to fight, we’ll fight

00:42:44

Well then, as if Who isn’t hiding, I’m not to

00:42:46

blame, if you want to negotiate, we’ll

00:42:47

negotiate, but Ukraine is in

00:42:48

position, there are no negotiations, all the

00:42:50

mobiles before the war are not really

00:42:53

able to have this war continue, therefore,

00:42:57

as the situation on the front line worsens

00:43:00

and with mobilization, I think the Armed

00:43:02

Forces will be more proponents of peace. And when

00:43:05

their number approaches n or more,

00:43:08

then the Ukrainian government, Whoever was

00:43:11

then the head of Ukraine There and so on

00:43:13

will be forced to make an

00:43:14

appropriate decision somehow

00:43:16

be determined in relation to peace

00:43:18

negotiations because it is impossible to force Nanie to get out,

00:43:20

especially in secrecy as Ukraine

00:43:25

obviously does not want to do this already

00:43:27

difficulties with 29 a Let's see what will happen

00:43:30

this November data maybe even more a Let's

00:43:32

see what happens later this

00:43:36

graph 50% I think somewhere should be by the

00:43:39

beginning of summer, maybe the beginning of autumn,

00:43:42

depending on whether they will give help or not. Well,

00:43:44

that is, this is a question. In any

00:43:46

case, the next year, not even

00:43:48

six months or months, that the number of

00:43:51

supporters of ending the war in Ukraine

00:43:52

will reach 50% is a fact that

00:43:55

cannot be ignored

00:43:56

it will need to be responded to. So

00:44:00

this is our immediate strategic

00:44:02

perspective, the number of people who

00:44:04

yearn for peace. I think the mobilization

00:44:06

is carried out this way and then the way it will be

00:44:08

carried out, it will only strengthen the number of

00:44:10

supporters of the peace process and this will be a

00:44:12

more serious challenge, not just a military

00:44:14

historical challenge that

00:44:16

Ukraine will have to go through and somehow decide

00:44:17

even Regardless of whether there will be

00:44:19

elections, it won’t be you who will be in power,

00:44:21

but it seems to me that it matters whether there will be

00:44:23

elections or not,

00:44:25

because Zelensky’s

00:44:27

diplomatic maneuver is not particularly important because

00:44:29

he stated that he will not

00:44:33

even negotiate

00:44:35

legislatively, and even Zelensky, with his

00:44:38

focus on war to the bitter end,

00:44:39

will not be able to ignore 50% of the people for the world,

00:44:42

this is technically impossible, they will simply not

00:44:43

carry out his orders,

00:44:44

this will result in the fact that he will

00:44:45

sabotage the mobilization, that’s

00:44:47

all, and something will have to be done, but even

00:44:50

technically, to go to negotiations, someone

00:44:52

must go to negotiations from the other side

00:44:55

and the Ukrainian side, someone must also

00:44:57

be there, this is also a

00:45:00

question, yes, but he raises the question of what it

00:45:03

means for us, he does not pose, but raised that it is

00:45:05

forbidden to negotiate at all with

00:45:06

Russia, that is, we will still

00:45:07

have to get out of this trap. But there is a way out of this,

00:45:09

in fact, what way out is

00:45:12

that the

00:45:13

reason for this war was the sum of

00:45:16

contradictions that have accumulated since the

00:45:17

ninety-first year since the collapse of the

00:45:18

Soviet Union, but they exist not

00:45:21

only between Ukraine and Russia But between the

00:45:23

entire European space, all the

00:45:25

political players that exist in it.

00:45:27

This is a series with

00:45:30

the same, underneath them lies the same sum of

00:45:33

reasons that under

00:45:34

Azerbaijan, the Armenian conflict and

00:45:37

many other zones of

00:45:39

tension, and here you can pose a

00:45:42

broader question: what under Damo, the Yalta

00:45:44

system, which was

00:45:46

formed as a result of the Second World

00:45:48

War in 1945 and was in effect until the

00:45:50

9th year before the start of a major war in the

00:45:52

center of Europe in Yugoslavia Yeah, hundreds of

00:45:55

thousands stopped working a long time ago in the

00:45:57

9th year, the Ukrainian war is now

00:46:00

all Russian-Ukrainian, it

00:46:02

is only an extreme expression of the fact that this

00:46:04

system does not work, the

00:46:06

Helsinki Treaty on the Inviolability of Borders

00:46:08

does not work, the system of treaties on the

00:46:09

limitation of arms does not

00:46:11

work, nothing works, the Budapest Agreement does not

00:46:13

work at all, the Budapest Agreements

00:46:15

and so on, and it is necessary to create a new

00:46:17

security system in Europe that takes into account

00:46:19

collective security

00:46:21

real players of the parties

00:46:24

including Russia and Belarus

00:46:26

all and enter into a serious

00:46:28

responsible real dialogue of all

00:46:30

parties Negotiations can last as long as desired At least

00:46:32

10 years create this

00:46:34

system but the main task of which

00:46:36

is to prevent the active hot

00:46:38

phase of war, that is, to create a mechanism

00:46:40

when conflicts can be resolved by other

00:46:41

methods they are at the cost of killing hundreds of thousands of

00:46:43

people, destroying the economy, creating waves of

00:46:46

refugees, and so on and so on, and it would be possible to

00:46:48

do this if politicians

00:46:50

were responsible on both sides on all

00:46:53

sides, more precisely for now Yes, not yet in

00:46:57

sight, so the alternative is a

00:46:59

long big war look, the

00:47:01

Baltic countries are already strengthening their

00:47:03

Western borders with all their might, and all Western

00:47:06

officials, including the head of NATO, say

00:47:08

that ahead of a clash with Russia, the

00:47:10

Polish representatives say, the heads of

00:47:12

the intelligence services, the Minister of Defense of Denmark there and

00:47:14

others of Sweden, Britain say we are preparing

00:47:17

for a clash with Russia, we are preparing for a

00:47:18

big war in Europe the alternative

00:47:21

is a big war in Europe or there a

00:47:24

collective translation of this situation in

00:47:26

Ukraine could be very simple, that we the

00:47:29

president even has this formula, there is

00:47:31

this springboard, he proposed it at the beginning of the

00:47:33

war, also the so-called peace formulas in

00:47:34

which at the last meeting that

00:47:36

representatives took In more states, we

00:47:39

can say that it is necessary to raise the question not

00:47:41

only of ending the

00:47:42

Russian-Ukrainian war, but also of

00:47:44

creating a new system that does not allow

00:47:46

these wars to resume in one

00:47:47

form or another, not only between Russia and

00:47:49

Ukraine, but also between Russia and the

00:47:50

Baltic countries, and so on. That’s

00:47:53

why let’s just start from the

00:47:56

Peace Formula, which is a

00:47:58

platform as a political groundwork, and

00:48:00

invite Russia to collective negotiations.

00:48:01

Moreover, during the

00:48:03

last summit in Malta they directly

00:48:05

said that Russia will be invited one day

00:48:06

When we get a

00:48:08

consolidated position of the

00:48:10

powers already there and please

00:48:12

bring up the topic of negotiations,

00:48:14

raise the frame much higher than the

00:48:16

Russian-Ukrainian won, then the general

00:48:18

world order must be a world order, yes Or

00:48:20

order in Europe, you bypass the frame of the

00:48:22

Russian-Ukrainian war And your own

00:48:24

prohibitions to negotiate with them, you

00:48:26

do not negotiate with them, these are

00:48:27

collective negotiations And you there

00:48:28

may be bilateral consultations within the

00:48:29

framework of these negotiations on health, that

00:48:31

’s all, no one has banned them; the same

00:48:33

consultations are held by 60 countries,

00:48:35

including us and Russia; this can be

00:48:37

circumvented and come out of this situation gracefully

00:48:39

with dignity. If there was a desire, but I

00:48:42

think the desire is now Probably there is

00:48:44

because this military rhetoric,

00:48:46

which is sounding more and more actively, it

00:48:50

scares the inhabitants and residents of Europe, probably

00:48:54

first of all, it scares me, in my opinion, no

00:48:56

one really

00:48:58

wants to fight there. In general, in my opinion, they are not ready to fight at all. I don’t see any

00:49:01

desires. Russia talks endlessly about

00:49:03

negotiations. No one is inviting Russia to negotiations, no

00:49:05

one Have you heard at least one

00:49:08

statement? This is We are inviting Russia to

00:49:09

negotiations, this is official. Everyone is talking about the

00:49:11

desirability of negotiations, but no one is

00:49:12

inviting, so here is the story of

00:49:15

saying that everyone wants it. It’s difficult. Well,

00:49:19

yes, I also agree, one more question Alexey,

00:49:23

here we are talking constantly American

00:49:27

assistance, assistance from Western countries, and

00:49:30

Ukraine itself, the military-industrial complex of Ukraine works, but

00:49:33

Ukraine itself is generally able to provide

00:49:35

itself, to some extent, with rows of cartridges,

00:49:39

ammunition,

00:49:40

food, everything that works, we

00:49:43

can, I no one knows the exact numbers, according to

00:49:46

my assessment, we can the needs of our

00:49:47

Armed Forces percent according to different things from n

00:49:50

to 20, provide Well, for example, in

00:49:53

food for 20 But there, in terms of

00:49:54

shell n from the necessary, this is a

00:49:57

vanishing small value, of course, not

00:49:58

a single state can completely

00:50:00

provide for itself the needs of the war except the

00:50:01

United States during the Second

00:50:03

World War. That’s why Russia has created

00:50:07

itself provides, in my opinion, now,

00:50:08

calm down Well, she provides for herself at the expense of

00:50:11

very

00:50:14

serious things. She is in an osm position;

00:50:16

she has something to trade oil and gas there,

00:50:18

for example, yes, well, she has something that we don’t have; and

00:50:20

secondly, how would she create too

00:50:22

big a state? In addition, Putin However, the

00:50:24

strategists made a decision and performed a very

00:50:26

important trick; he managed to turn around the situation of the

00:50:28

conflict between Russia, Ukraine, or even Russia,

00:50:30

NATO, and changed the frame to the global south

00:50:33

against the global West. Well, yes,

00:50:34

the rapid expansion of the Brix. Yes, yes, yes,

00:50:36

anti-colonial rhetoric,

00:50:38

a change in the position of the countries of Latin

00:50:39

America, Africa, in favor of Russia and against the

00:50:41

West shows that in general the ins and outs of

00:50:45

this conflict are global,

00:50:46

not even pan-European, that is, there are a lot of

00:50:48

claims against the West from the

00:50:50

global south, these claims are not

00:50:52

resolved, the rhetoric is like this

00:50:54

[music]

00:50:56

bet that in Israel, Creation also exists in this

00:50:59

conflict of the global world

00:51:02

and what is

00:51:04

happening with Kusita is now attacking

00:51:07

ships 14% of world maritime trade yes this is a

00:51:10

huge figure the

00:51:11

problem the conflict is wearing The Earth has accumulated The

00:51:14

planet has accumulated a sum of contradictions So

00:51:16

they break through here and there

00:51:23

and with Lisa to win the Second

00:51:26

World War I don’t think that he would have won

00:51:29

yes Therefore although he was a fairly

00:51:31

self-sufficient economy, but the severity of

00:51:33

the blow, the amount of destroyed captured

00:51:34

industry, resources, the entire European

00:51:36

part, in fact, led to the fact that

00:51:41

Ukraine was needed, our problem is that

00:51:43

we spent 32 years of

00:51:47

insecurity, we, roughly speaking,

00:51:48

declared foreign policy cast was

00:51:51

elements of internal resources and we

00:51:53

totally at the dawn goals depended on external

00:51:57

players, a simple example: We really want the EU

00:51:59

and NATO, even in the Constitution they wrote down

00:52:00

the question whether the EU and NATO are waiting for us, very

00:52:02

problematic for us already now, three three

00:52:04

signals in a row, there were two yesterday and

00:52:06

the day before yesterday at the level of defense ministers

00:52:08

of different countries, politicians that do not wait for an

00:52:10

invitation in NATO, in fact, they are talking

00:52:12

at the summit in Washington in June of this

00:52:14

month, which they really hoped for

00:52:16

after we were not invited to

00:52:18

Vilnius Yeah last June and so

00:52:20

on, so this is all a very distant

00:52:22

prospect,

00:52:26

Russia even reacted very sharply to this prospect having started a war to

00:52:29

ensure, as they say, their

00:52:31

legitimate interests in the area of the soft

00:52:34

underbelly of Russia in the region of Ukraine,

00:52:36

preventing it from joining the anti-Russian,

00:52:38

as they consider NATO, military Union,

00:52:40

so we declared and implemented goals

00:52:42

for which We did not have the resource, we

00:52:45

wanted what we wanted we will have to

00:52:47

pay with a major war and we pay without

00:52:49

having the means of waging war, this is

00:52:51

infantilism and the childish Ukrainian policy of the

00:52:54

childish Ukrainian society, the

00:52:55

fundamental reason for everything that

00:52:57

is happening except for the

00:53:02

expansionist tendency in Russia and

00:53:04

Russian infantilism, or rather Ukrainian,

00:53:06

which did not calculate this in time and even

00:53:08

pulled and teased Russia by the mustache tiger like

00:53:11

this, pursuing a policy that, well, clearly

00:53:15

led to war, but at the same time not preparing for

00:53:18

this war, we are paying a very high

00:53:22

price for this, we will pay more first What and

00:53:26

most importantly what will Ukraine learn if it

00:53:27

survives this war at all

00:53:29

what or if more broadly so to speak in

00:53:33

this geopolitical

00:53:34

conflict of which the war is only a

00:53:37

part of which it is necessary to carry out a

00:53:39

secured policy a policy that

00:53:41

we are able to provide with our own

00:53:43

resources It is clear to expect that we will be able to

00:53:45

fight with Russia whose military budget

00:53:47

there is a couple of dozen times

00:53:49

greater than us and our capabilities themselves

00:53:53

are unrealistic, but at least we

00:53:56

need to withdraw so that the military can provide 50% of their needs

00:53:58

and all of their own.

00:54:01

I hope you are convinced that despite all

00:54:02

the ranting,

00:54:10

and even for states located on the

00:54:13

fault of geopolitical plates such as

00:54:15

Ukraine, and if we do not cover 50% of our needs,

00:54:24

it is very difficult to say

00:54:26

what our entire territory is being shot at by

00:54:28

Russian Russian missiles, which

00:54:30

means we need to build factories somewhere

00:54:33

in the Carpathian Mountains in the west in the west, yes, yes, there is a

00:54:36

huge, huge, difficult

00:54:39

problem in the west that had to be given up; it

00:54:41

had to be given up a long time ago. But instead, we

00:54:43

joyfully unloaded and told

00:54:45

that everyone loved us and there will be no war That is

00:54:48

why even 10 years of war from the

00:54:53

field of a direct war with Russia in a

00:54:57

hybrid proxy version, but the war with

00:54:59

Russia did not force us to seriously

00:55:01

engage in the defense of the country, monstrous

00:55:04

infantilism and the payment for it is monstrous in

00:55:07

the future, I hope that we have

00:55:10

learned, although here there are many problems.

00:55:13

For example, our infantilism

00:55:16

is superimposed on the monstrous infantilism of the

00:55:17

West. Uh-huh. But here’s a simple example:

00:55:19

when Kherson was taken on November 11, 2018, the

00:55:23

West sharply reduced the intensity of

00:55:25

supplies of military equipment for armaments and

00:55:27

began negotiations with Russia. Putin, do not

00:55:29

join the winter company. Putin responded by

00:55:31

building a line. Surikina

00:55:32

mobilization in preparation for battle,

00:55:35

so the counter-offensive failed

00:55:38

could not help but fail, we let

00:55:39

them dig in for 9 months, all this time there was a Peace

00:55:41

Dialogue for the first 3 months they did not

00:55:43

supply military equipment at all.

00:55:45

I also saw this in the trilateral

00:55:47

contact group and in the Normandy

00:55:49

format it amazed me deeply

00:55:50

souls This is infantilism because as

00:55:52

soon as peace negotiations

00:55:54

cease, the

00:55:57

intention to prepare for war immediately stops, and the West

00:56:00

suddenly began to relax. Well, how about

00:56:03

peace, the Armed Forces, you can not spend money and

00:56:05

this is a very simple idea that if you

00:56:07

want the Romans even the ancients said

00:56:10

that you want peace prepare for war, what is the

00:56:12

best way to ensure peace? Given this, in

00:56:15

such moods of your neighbors, the

00:56:19

plan of preparations for the war

00:56:23

will not be successful, then

00:56:27

peace will be guaranteed; this is a simple thought that

00:56:29

did not fit; we pay, I repeat the

00:56:31

monstrous theme, the price and we will also pay for

00:56:34

our infantilism. superimposed on the

00:56:36

infantilism of the global West right

00:56:38

now When America does not give us help

00:56:41

and says what sober American

00:56:44

politicians say Well then American

00:56:45

soldiers will die in Europe and Trump

00:56:48

says to this Yes, I generally

00:56:50

won’t help Rapu NATO and, moreover, I will

00:56:51

encourage countries Russia to attack

00:56:53

NATO countries that do not pay anything other than

00:56:55

infantilism, you can’t call it isolationism, they are trying

00:56:57

to call

00:56:58

isolationism some kind of

00:57:00

American internal policy, in fact, this is the

00:57:02

monstrous monstrous infantilism into

00:57:04

which our Western and our

00:57:07

Ukrainian Western policy grew after the

00:57:08

end was announced in December

00:57:10

history, when the West decided, it won and

00:57:13

now Everything is now grabbed by God by the beard, it’s

00:57:23

clear that no one wants to be

00:57:26

pro-Western, moreover, no one is

00:57:29

afraid of the West anymore So the West also declared the axis of evil,

00:57:33

he spoke With moral categories in

00:57:35

politics, the axis of evil, the axis of good But if you

00:57:37

declared evil, so go fight this

00:57:39

evil, but you don’t fight, as it were, and

00:57:41

therefore, too, hypocrisy and infantilism -

00:57:44

This is a monstrous payment we pay and the West will

00:57:46

also pay, I’m 10% sure because

00:57:48

I practically believe that a

00:57:50

clash between Russia and Europe is inevitable, you consider it

00:57:53

inevitable that is, do you think that inevitably

00:57:56

all the logic leads to the fact that there will be

00:57:57

a clash somewhere in the Baltic countries

00:57:59

Well, this is the Third World War then I

00:58:02

don’t even have another word then Arzhan,

00:58:05

unfortunately it’s already underway It’s just going

00:58:06

through a series of conflict episodes Yes and

00:58:08

Then it’s possible it will remain a series of such

00:58:10

conflicts of episodes But when I talk about the

00:58:12

collective security system This is

00:58:14

more of a good wish than a practical

00:58:17

proposal because no one is with

00:58:19

infantilism and the fact is that

00:58:20

no one is going to arrange it everyone is

00:58:22

in military rhetoric everyone is ready

00:58:25

Well, we’ll fight well means Well for in

00:58:28

order to fight here,

00:58:31

Unfortunately, words don’t help, actions are needed here.

00:58:34

I just have this feeling. I have the

00:58:36

feeling that

00:58:39

well, we often go to Europe, we see there, in

00:58:42

my opinion, no one is ready to fight and

00:58:44

change this Comfort that exists and and It

00:58:47

seems to me that in any battle, a clash with a

00:58:49

serious

00:58:51

enemy, there will be very big problems,

00:58:54

and very sharply and clearly. Yes, in the

00:58:57

West during this time even anthropology has changed. That

00:58:58

is, they have other people who

00:59:00

no longer think in war and do not want to

00:59:02

fight. These are different ho sapiens Yes, you can

00:59:04

say yes Yes, other anthropos are called

00:59:06

changed, so everyone expects that these

00:59:08

hipsters who love pumpkin armor

00:59:10

will go to war or go to the machine

00:59:12

to produce shells, but it would be very

00:59:14

naive. The West has not been able to restart the

00:59:15

military industry since August, or rather

00:59:17

since the summer.

00:59:19

modern war

00:59:21

shows that the

00:59:23

Western model in Masha is completely broken, it does not work, that is,

00:59:27

small compact professional very

00:59:29

expensive Armed with the latest

00:59:31

technical word The armed forces

00:59:33

end within 3 months of the war,

00:59:34

first they run out of ammunition and everything

00:59:36

else And then a war begins

00:59:38

of which there are huge masses that should be

00:59:41

armed with simple effective

00:59:42

weapons, and this is a fundamental

00:59:44

change in the model, they are not ready for it at all

00:59:47

because first of all they need

00:59:53

the masses even if the states go to war.

00:59:56

They can start to destroy the Russian

00:59:58

military industry. There is just

00:59:59

industry and then a million

01:00:01

men armed with a Mosin rifle will come to

01:00:03

Poland and You won’t fire missiles at them

01:00:06

and you won’t find them for every plane, they

01:00:07

just won’t hit the infantrymen separately, you’ll have to

01:00:09

fight in dirty trenches, that’s

01:00:10

how we fight, shooting at

01:00:13

each other from 5 meters away and throwing grenades. And if in the

01:00:15

west there are hundreds of thousands of people

01:00:17

ready for this to do This is a very big

01:00:19

doubt, a very big doubt, therefore,

01:00:22

and if you look at what is behind Russia is

01:00:24

North Korea China, who has the West labeled

01:00:27

as evil Iran Yes, all all the armies of the state are

01:00:30

capable of first producing huge

01:00:32

quantities of cheap military equipment

01:00:33

that is needed for a conflict of this

01:00:35

scale is needed not expensive not [

01:00:37

music]

01:00:53

super early grief Let's prepare with all our might,

01:00:55

other people say No, what are

01:00:58

we going to agree on, yes, and third people,

01:01:01

but there are no people who say,

01:01:03

maybe let's sit down and

01:01:04

[music] have

01:01:06

developed a new security system

01:01:08

that prevents wars, no

01:01:10

need to threaten anyone Tomahawk, no one needs to be

01:01:11

threatened with infantry, no one needs to be threatened with the

01:01:16

prospect of using nuclear weapons somewhere behind their rows of cores, I

01:01:19

don’t see responsible politicians

01:01:20

who are ready to raise the question of the

01:01:23

collective security system for now,

01:01:25

despite everything, I don’t feel comfortable saying

01:01:27

this phrase, it’s awkward, even as if yes, but

01:01:31

so far about the system of collective security

01:01:33

Sorry, two people are speaking, me and Putin, no one else I

01:01:36

haven’t heard this from anyone else

01:01:38

Putin is talking about peace Yes

01:01:41

indeed Yes yes this is not even peace peace is

01:01:43

not an end in itself peace can be discharged by

01:01:46

another war after a while

01:01:47

frozen conflicts again can

01:01:49

explode, we saw it in Ukraine, we

01:01:51

saw it in Azerbaijan, Armenia We

01:01:52

don’t just need peace, we need a

01:01:55

security system that prevents wars, this is a

01:01:56

slightly different way of posing the question at a

01:01:58

higher level, but so far I don’t see

01:02:01

bunkers that are located on the borders with

01:02:03

Russia, I see attempts there to launch

01:02:05

I see the industry, but I kind of see it from the

01:02:09

other pole Tanya, there won’t be a war, we’ll

01:02:11

agree, but I don’t see a serious

01:02:13

conversation about the security system. That’s what

01:02:15

worries me. This means that

01:02:17

infantilism, which caused what is

01:02:19

happening.

01:02:27

Now, talking with you, I hear more and more often

01:02:32

that borders within the framework of the ninety-first

01:02:35

year are practically

01:02:37

unrealistic, and the people who live in Ukraine

01:02:41

today, who have lost

01:02:43

relatives and friends, how do they react to

01:02:45

such things? Then it turns out All this

01:02:49

was in vain, all the people who died, they

01:02:51

react extremely painful But this is a

01:02:53

natural emotional reaction of people to the

01:02:55

trauma of war, the trauma of war, and

01:02:57

who are confused by the official

01:02:59

Propaganda that we will not reach an inch of our

01:03:02

Earth, and so on and so forth,

01:03:03

again the reason for this is not people, but the reason

01:03:05

that no one is serious with people doesn’t

01:03:07

speak seriously authoritatively the state doesn’t speak

01:03:10

because what do you mean they

01:03:13

spent

01:03:22

the lack of support in vain It was obvious there were 8 years of

01:03:24

war Yeah Now we’ve lost territory we’ve

01:03:27

lost people we’re going to lose even

01:03:29

more territory even more people

01:03:31

uh and we’re paying for what we

01:03:35

’re fighting for, you can say for that

01:03:37

so that Ukraine survives as such, so that

01:03:39

it remains an independent state,

01:03:41

here we are no longer even talking about the former

01:03:43

borders; in fact, it is not clear

01:03:45

that politically we would and will

01:03:47

stand on the need to return the borders of the

01:03:48

first year, but this is the Federal Republic of Germany,

01:03:51

only the Democratic Republic of Germany existed for 41 years after

01:03:53

that, yes, until

01:03:55

global changes,

01:03:58

so no one is going to give up and

01:04:00

give up our territories at

01:04:02

the level of

01:04:04

global political goals, of course we

01:04:07

are talking about the return of all territories, the

01:04:08

return of Crimea, and so on, but this will be

01:04:10

official rhetoric all the way as long as

01:04:11

Ukraine exists.

01:04:15

But now let’s look in reality, people are tired of being

01:04:18

realists, we must be realistic, that

01:04:20

is, the territories will be occupied,

01:04:22

occupied for a very long time. Perhaps

01:04:23

several dozen, as the GDR was once

01:04:25

occupied, and therefore, as part of

01:04:28

Germany, we

01:04:30

must proceed from this, we are fighting so

01:04:33

that we are the first to not be occupied by

01:04:34

the other part so that we remained

01:04:36

independent and could make

01:04:37

their own decisions. But in order for us to

01:04:39

remain independent, we must understand

01:04:41

that the threat to our sovereignty

01:04:42

exists not only from the East but also from the

01:04:44

West, from the West it is not direct, no one in the

01:04:47

sense that Hungarians, Hungarian

01:04:49

radicals or Romanians want to take away from

01:04:51

us part of the territory Although

01:04:53

Iri is not allowed with no brigades, this threat

01:04:55

means that we are totally dependent

01:04:57

on the West, we have no real

01:04:58

sovereignty. It is

01:05:02

formally preserved at the level of respect for the general

01:05:05

principles of sovereignty that

01:05:07

were established back in 1648; this is how the

01:05:10

authority of even small ones is preserved.

01:05:12

I don’t take island states like

01:05:13

Nauru and so on, I’m joking,

01:05:17

which are neither capable of an economy nor, much

01:05:19

less, an Armed Forces, but yes, they are

01:05:21

respected, they shake hands, and,

01:05:23

formally, the same as the leaders of the

01:05:25

largest powers because the country is not

01:05:27

capable of defending itself with real

01:05:29

sovereignty does not

01:05:30

require actions from us that increase our

01:05:32

real sovereignty, this means a

01:05:34

fundamental change in domestic

01:05:35

policy in the direction of increasing the

01:05:38

economy from strengthening it in the direction of

01:05:40

strengthening the military-industrial complex, this is a fundamental

01:05:43

change in relations with neighbors with

01:05:44

whom we need to build this together, the military-industrial complex,

01:05:45

for example, and who understand what the

01:05:47

Russian occupation is The Soviets have

01:05:48

historical experience and are ready to help us in this;

01:05:50

changing relations with

01:05:51

Western countries, not only the West with the countries of the

01:05:53

global south, this is one of the most

01:05:55

important directions for us to build

01:05:56

our own independent policy with China with the

01:05:59

royal ones with the Muslim world with

01:06:02

other countries of the former Soviet

01:06:03

Union with Kazakhstan the same and so

01:06:05

on, it is necessary to stitch together so many

01:06:07

connections that a very large number of

01:06:09

players would be unprofitable for Ukraine to

01:06:11

suffer because, for example, their

01:06:12

investments in Ukraine are a simple example. And

01:06:15

most importantly, we need to change the ideological

01:06:17

frame. Because a society going through

01:06:19

a series of conflicts that we talked about at

01:06:22

the beginning is

01:06:24

what kind of society a complex policy to raise

01:06:25

real sovereignty to strengthen the

01:06:27

economic power of external influence

01:06:30

will not be able to carry out, it is mired in internal

01:06:32

quarrels, therefore, Ukrainians are required to

01:06:35

grow up sharply, take

01:06:37

responsibility sharply and radically sum up the

01:06:39

results, which is already a fixation of

01:06:41

results Yes, stopping the war and

01:06:44

making colossal efforts to

01:06:47

to raise our real sovereignty This is a

01:06:49

task of such magnitude that I

01:06:51

strongly

01:06:52

doubt even

01:06:54

setting it as a goal of our policy

01:06:57

because it still smacks of infantilism. Until

01:07:00

now, the goal is that we will

01:07:01

definitely win the war, we will join the EU and

01:07:04

NATO and there, within this framework, we will begin

01:07:06

to rise and get an umbrella and the roof is

01:07:08

absolutely

01:07:19

[music]

01:07:22

unrealistic and nothing surprises me to the

01:07:25

contrary until the

01:07:28

realistic goals of the task are stated, the

01:07:31

desire is stated to fix

01:07:33

losses

01:07:35

and radically change the internal and external

01:07:39

political course towards strengthening

01:07:40

real sovereignty and then we can

01:07:43

say why Everyone died why

01:07:45

my friends died. For example, I lost in

01:07:47

this war, in this war, in many others

01:07:52

as adults, and Ukraine

01:07:56

has been preserved in history, this is the price that

01:07:59

could have been paid, but it could not have been

01:08:01

paid or paid much less if

01:08:02

we had not been

01:08:05

childish and understood what is really

01:08:07

happening where is all this going? Tell me,

01:08:09

this is how 8 years of war have not

01:08:12

been preparing for war for 8 years, not intensifying, how is this

01:08:17

even possible? It’s difficult to say. It’s not even infantilism. It’s that the

01:08:19

state of war is even

01:08:22

simple.

01:08:27

Ukraine since the ninety-

01:08:28

first year I’m telling you that who

01:08:30

needs us and in the modern world no one is

01:08:32

fighting anymore Although it was great idiocy, it’s

01:08:34

like AIDS and political

01:08:37

destruction of your own immune system

01:08:38

with your own hands, your army, but here it’s still

01:08:41

clear, but when the war started they took away

01:08:43

Crimea And the war in Donbass began. Well,

01:08:44

then it was already possible to figure out where

01:08:46

it was going. Russia was preparing for an attack

01:08:48

on us completely openly from the

01:08:50

year sixteen, it created a

01:08:51

strike force on our eastern and

01:08:53

northern borders and in the Crimea. It’s quite

01:08:55

obvious when I predicted the war in the

01:08:57

twenty-second year, remember in the Dada video

01:08:59

I remember this, but it’s not because I’m a

01:09:00

Great Prophet. But I just, like a military man,

01:09:02

considered what was happening and where

01:09:04

it was all going and the time frame for the group’s readiness, which by

01:09:06

the way was in the open

01:09:07

Print, well, that’s all, how could it

01:09:12

be? Well 8 years of fighting, not preparing for war

01:09:15

and doing everything to make the war take place, as it were, yes, well,

01:09:17

at the same time, yes, keep the rhetoric

01:09:19

nao Keep the

01:09:21

rhetoric high, yes, yes, yes,

01:09:24

high intensity, which

01:09:26

provokes an attack on us,

01:09:28

this, of course,

01:09:30

was the height of infantilism. Well, we have what

01:09:33

we have, but 2 years of the most difficult war with the most difficult

01:09:35

hundreds of thousands of victims They

01:09:38

still do not do not lead to a change in

01:09:40

rhetoric anyway, the policy gives off the

01:09:42

same infantilism, that is, the problem is

01:09:45

that we have not learned the main lesson,

01:09:47

soon the third year of the war will go We have not learned

01:09:49

we do not want to carry out a realistic

01:09:50

secured policy and to carry out a

01:09:52

policy,

01:09:54

our policy allows it. Clear Alexey and in

01:09:56

conclusion, in conclusion, one question

01:09:59

concerns you personally about your

01:10:02

presidential

01:10:03

ambitions. What do you think about this if

01:10:06

elections are held, will you stand as a

01:10:08

candidacy? Is it possible in Ukraine

01:10:12

to stand as a candidate without having you have a

01:10:14

political party, as far as I know, there is no

01:10:15

longer your own Yes, how to work without a

01:10:17

political candidate can be

01:10:19

self-nominated for president, for this it is not

01:10:20

necessary to have a political party, just have a

01:10:22

parliamentary one, it is advisable

01:10:24

to have a party, there is a local one, it is advisable to

01:10:25

have a party I promised that I would run for

01:10:27

president but This means that we will

01:10:29

most likely have to keep this promise. But

01:10:31

this will depend on the conjuncture

01:10:33

that exists in our country. Look, I’m a

01:10:36

skeptic about what, if you

01:10:38

look at the tasks that we

01:10:40

face, then even elections are not a

01:10:46

tool capable of completely solving

01:10:48

this problem because elections do not

01:10:49

guarantee the implementation of adult politics

01:10:52

after this because the infantile,

01:10:55

not only the politics of the infantile

01:10:57

society as a whole, the West is completely

01:10:59

infantile, what can we say about us,

01:11:00

therefore, changing the psychology of mass

01:11:02

society is Elections are such a

01:11:05

tool Yes, it’s kind of a question, so it

01:11:07

seems to me

01:11:10

that Well everything will depend on on the

01:11:12

specific situation from on the context in

01:11:15

which When, how and what will

01:11:17

happen What are the moods in society

01:11:18

Will they be ready for a breakdown, will they be ready, and so on,

01:11:20

I’ll still look because m

01:11:24

Well, I’m just Well, you know, call for a

01:11:27

realistic policy and to nominate yourself as a

01:11:29

candidacy, for example, you don’t have

01:11:31

any chance of success, why is it

01:11:33

repeating the same trick

01:11:35

to carry out the same infantile thing that I

01:11:36

promised to go to the polls? I didn’t

01:11:38

say In what year I’ll go. Maybe I

01:11:39

’ll go to the polls in 20 years, you know?

01:11:41

yes When will it be when society matures,

01:11:43

so I’m not, as it were, a political track

01:11:47

for me remains one of the important ones,

01:11:49

I somehow have my share of power,

01:11:51

if only because I influence minds, for

01:11:54

this you don’t have to be a formal

01:11:55

politician, believe me, I have a sufficient

01:11:58

amount of influence and you just have to

01:12:00

be on the rhetorical side of

01:12:02

positioning, so I wish you success,

01:12:05

happiness, Victory

01:12:07

and, as it were, real sovereignty of history

01:12:10

for your country, for your people,

01:12:15

there are all sorts of different tools for this. As for politics, these are very

01:12:16

specific things that need to be looked at

01:12:18

depending on the current political contours

01:12:20

at that time, my friend for many years

01:12:25

will win the elections, the clear

01:12:27

question is whether I should be nominated as

01:12:28

president. Why is it obvious that 3% of the votes

01:12:32

and so on, and then it is much easier for me to

01:12:34

enter into an alliance with him and then

01:12:35

resolve some of my issues in a

01:12:37

situational political union

01:12:39

human and so on etc. If yes, we don’t

01:12:41

split society and don’t delay

01:12:43

votes, so we will look at Where and

01:12:46

how it will develop for a politician -

01:12:48

this is a tool for me, she is not an

01:12:50

end in itself, she cannot be an

01:12:51

end in itself for one healthy person who

01:12:53

wants success in his country, she

01:12:56

is a tool used

01:12:58

specifically in specific conditions if

01:13:01

the conditions develop Yes, you need to

01:13:02

do this if they develop there are completely

01:13:04

other ways to help your country

01:13:07

without politics Clear Thank you very much

01:13:10

Alexey we will be in touch as

01:13:13

usual I hope to see you again in March

01:13:17

I had a very busy

01:13:19

period I had to take a break I spent

01:13:21

almost less than x days, no more than 3

01:13:23

days, not a day I was in one place,

01:13:25

endless flights and time

01:13:26

zone changes Well, we are back again And I am

01:13:28

very glad that we are back I am grateful

01:13:31

Thank you very much I want to tell you and

01:13:32

your team for the opportunity to host

01:13:34

such a broadcast Thank you, good luck See you

01:13:38

Alexey Thank you very much Well, all I

01:13:39

can do is say goodbye to our

01:13:41

viewers Until we meet again, you watched

01:13:42

the episode of Live broadcasts with Alexey

01:13:44

Arrestovich all the best

Description:

🪖 Президентська бригада збирає на авто для підрозділу, Mavic T, глушилки, станцію та на купівлю гуми для машини. 🎯 Ціль: 370 000.00 ₴ 🔗 Посилання на банку: https://send.monobank.ua/jar/6o9L5MSHqL 💳 Номер картки банки: 5375 4112 1270 3164 ➖➖➖➖➖ В интервью Арманжана Байтасова обсудили положение на фронте, политику и перспективы Украины и Запада: ➤ 00:00 Обстановка на фронте: Купянск, Бахмут, Работино, Авдеевка. В украинской армии катастрофическая нехватка снарядов. Война дронов. ➤ 04:54 Оборона Авдеевки — отвод украинских войск начался. Российская армия движется на Покровск. ➤ 07:58 Общий замысел врага — захватить Донецкую, Луганскую, Запорожскую и Херсонскую области. ➤ 10:15 Конфликт между Залужным и Зеленским. Мобилизация в Украине: цена, стоимость. Политическая стратегия Украины не соответствует реальной обстановке. ➤ 17:48 Главком ВСУ Сырский и его стиль командования. Удачные военные операции и потери. Политический рейтинг. ➤ 22:14 Потеря единства украинского общества. ➤ 24:53 Стратегия Зеленского не совпадает со стратегией Запада, делает невозможным диалог и приводит к снижению военной помощи. ➤ 26:05 Военная помощь от США. Перспективы обрушения фронта. Информационная политика украинской власти. ➤ 29:03 Легитимность Верховной рады и президента Украины — дополнительные дестабилизирующие факторы после 31 марта. ➤ 31:34 Необходимость выборов в Украине. Кандидатура Залужного в качестве президента страны. ➤ 33:17 Зачем нужна власть Зеленскому? Стратегия войны. ➤ 36:44 Предположил сценарий развития событий, когда украинцы готовы к мирным переговорам в условиях мобилизации. ➤ 40:05 Положение дел в России на фоне войны. Два возможных сценария Путина. ➤ 44:20 Президент Украины может пойти на мирные переговоры по Формуле мира, цель которых — создание новой системы безопасности в Европе и мире. ➤ 48:42 Россия хочет переговоров, но ее никто не приглашает. ➤ 49:20 Обеспечение воюющих сторон во время войны. Стратегия войны Путина — в мировом противодействии Западу. ➤ 51:40 Проблема Украины — мы заявили и реализовывали цели, на которые не имеем ресурса. Высокая цена инфантильной политики Украины. ➤ 55:13 Лицемерная и инфантильная политика Запада после 1991 года: во время мирных переговоров военная помощь Украине не предоставлялась. При каких условиях может быть гарантирован мир. ➤ 57:45 Неприятная перспектива Запада: считаю неизбежным столкновение России и Европы. Неготовность нового типа людей в Европе воевать. ➤ 01:01:24 Отсутствие ответственных политиков: о коллективной системе безопасности говорят только Арестович и Путин. ➤ 01:02:25 Реакция украинцев на нереальность достижения границ 1991 года в текущем положении. ➤ 01:04:17 Реальность нахождения в оккупации части территорий Украины в течение многих лет. За что воюет Украина. Угроза суверенитету страны с Востока и Запада. ➤ 01:05:30 Возможные цели политики Украины: действия, которые необходимы для повышения реального суверенитета. ➤ 01:07:19 Пессимизм в перспективах Украины — главный урок страна пока не выучила. Высокая цена, чтобы стать самостоятельной, взрослой, и сохраниться в истории. ➤ 01:09:56 Президентские амбиции Арестовича и неполитические пути помощи стране. 🔔 Подписывайтесь на каналы: 🔸 Арестович: https://www.youtube.com/@arestovych?sub_confirmation=1 🔸 Арманжан Байтасов: https://www.youtube.com/@baitassov_live 🇬🇧 Эфиры Алексея Арестовича на английском: @privateerstation ☕️ Вы можете выразить благодарность лично Алексею и оставить отзыв, который он прочитает: https://secure.wayforpay.com/donate/arestovych 🎓 Школа мышления и коммуникации @ApeironSchool ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ ► https://apeiron.school/ ► https://t.me/apeiron_school ► https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser 👕 Мерч: https://shop.apeiron.school/ 👩‍🚀 24.02 Киносеминар "Марсианин" https://apeiron.school/martian 🌇 27.02 Курс "Мифодизайн" В.Зеленина https://apeiron.school/mythodesign 📖 02.03 Разбор книги "Первые люди на Луне" с А.Арестовичем https://apeiron.school/first-men-in-the-moon 🔖 СОЦИАЛЬНЫЕ СЕТИ @arestovych ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 📍Все официальные ресурсы Алексея Арестовича: https://lnk.bio/alexey.arestovich ► Telegram-канал: https://t.me/O_Arestovich_official ► Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser ► Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser ► Twitter: https://twitter.com/arestovych ► TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@alexey.arestovich

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