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Russian
00:00:00
then the currency market the FX market00:00:02
the Forex market moves in00:00:03
general for various and00:00:05
varied reasons which can be the supply and00:00:06
demand for this specific currency00:00:08
geopolitical reasons00:00:10
macroeconomic reasons00:00:11
commercial reasons monetary policy reasons00:00:13
simply political reasons00:00:15
but if we were to00:00:16
really take one of the elements which00:00:19
tends to always impact the00:00:21
currency market it is the future expectations of the00:00:24
interest rates of the respective economies00:00:26
now if I told you precisely00:00:28
that there are a way to be able to00:00:30
visually see the future expectations00:00:32
of interest rates in different00:00:34
economies and therefore compare them with the00:00:36
valuation of a currency pair to be00:00:38
able to find trade opportunities00:00:40
or simply Miss Prices00:00:42
which would allow us to capitalize00:00:44
on these short term opportunities and00:00:45
so this is exactly what we are going to00:00:47
study today together which we00:00:48
call the Yield00:00:58
spread00:01:03
so before making you understand00:01:04
what the Yield spread is you must first00:01:05
understand what it is what is the Yield and where00:01:07
it comes from it comes from bonds so00:01:08
I would first like to explain to you00:01:10
how bonds work00:01:12
so government bonds and00:01:13
bond yields don't worry we will00:01:15
do that quickly so a good00:01:16
firstly what is it so an00:01:18
obligation when we talk about bonds00:01:19
generally we talk about00:01:20
government obligation so if we take the case00:01:22
of the United States the United States will00:01:24
issue bonds therefore will00:01:25
issue what we call leaps to00:01:27
raise funds raise money and00:01:29
have little Mr. Madam everyone00:01:31
or States or companies which00:01:33
lend them money now00:01:34
obviously if they raise funds00:01:36
so that we lend them money money there is00:01:38
obviously an interest for00:01:39
people to lend them money and that00:01:41
is what we call the yild and therefore00:01:43
the way in which00:01:44
government bonds00:01:46
work is that there00:01:48
is an coupon that is to say that we have a face00:01:50
value which is for example 100000:01:51
dollars so you have 1000 dollars of bonds00:01:53
and you potentially have a coupon at00:01:55
maturity depending on the duration for which you00:01:57
lend your money to the00:01:58
American government so the maturity of this bond at00:02:01
the end of this maturity you will00:02:02
receive your coupon so if we take00:02:04
the example of a value of 100000:02:06
dollars of bonds and you have a coupon which00:02:07
is 40 dollars we simply make00:02:09
40 divided by 1000 and we00:02:11
realize that therefore the Yield the00:02:13
return that we are able to make by00:02:15
lending our money by purchasing this00:02:17
bond at 1000 dollars and we recover00:02:19
1040 over a period for example of 1 year00:02:21
would therefore be 4% of yild so until00:02:24
then it's simple and it's when we issue00:02:26
a new bond and there is a00:02:28
maturity there is a coupon we know00:02:30
exactly how much we take the face00:02:32
value and the coupon r now what is00:02:33
needed understand is that the bond market00:02:34
is traded on the00:02:36
secondary market, that is to say once you00:02:37
have bought this debt that you have this00:02:40
bond you are able to00:02:41
resell it now obviously the rate00:02:43
that you have on your bond if we take for00:02:45
example the American government bonds00:02:47
will be00:02:49
greatly correlated to the key interest rate00:02:51
set up by the Federal00:02:53
Reserve but therefore as I explained to you given00:02:54
that the bond market is also traded00:02:56
on the secondary market we will have00:02:57
as in any market of00:02:59
supply and demand for these00:03:00
bonds for these bonds so we can00:03:02
enter a scenario where for example00:03:05
potentially 2 years ago the00:03:06
interest rates were lower00:03:08
than today 'so today you may have00:03:09
bought a bond which paid you an00:03:11
interest of 2% which therefore had a bond00:03:13
yield of 2% except that today the00:03:16
new bonds the new bonds00:03:18
which are issued pay 4% twice as much00:03:20
so you the obligation that you have will00:03:23
keep the coupon at which you bought it00:03:25
which was therefore only 2% except that00:03:27
you can imagine that today no one00:03:29
will buy it from you 2% knowing that you can00:03:30
have exactly the same something that pays00:03:31
4%. so the price of your bond will00:03:34
simply reduce to potentially be able to00:03:36
sell it and will reduce00:03:37
so that the Yield can increase to 4%00:03:40
and match the current yields so your00:03:42
Bond which had a face value of 100000:03:44
dollars if we take the first example00:03:45
which we were talking about with a yield which would be00:03:47
at 4%. if your bond is no longer at 100000:03:49
dollars but you can only00:03:51
resell it for 900 dollars we will therefore00:03:53
do the calculation again 40/900 this00:03:56
time instead of 1000 and we00:03:57
realize that the yield has therefore increased and00:03:59
passed from 4% to 4.44%. so you see00:04:03
that there is an inverse correlation between00:04:05
the price of the bonds and the yields the00:04:07
yield that the latter can offer so00:04:10
now that we have seen a little of the00:04:11
theoretical side of the relationship between the bond00:04:13
prices the bond yields j 'hope you00:04:15
understand that ultimately the00:04:16
yield on longer00:04:18
term bonds generally at 10 years maturity at00:04:20
10 years of an economy really reflects00:04:22
the future expectations of interest rates00:04:25
why because ultimately00:04:26
investors and00:04:27
bond traders will them react AG00:04:30
according to what is happening in00:04:31
the economy according to what00:04:32
the Fed thinks and therefore according to00:04:34
interest rates and we therefore say that bond00:04:36
yields are a forward looking indicator00:04:39
and which therefore tend to move before00:04:41
the currency potentially moves and00:04:43
before the central bank concerned00:04:45
decides to change the real interest rates00:04:48
so if I am now going to00:04:49
show you this in a more concrete way we00:04:51
will simply go and verify this00:04:53
hypothesis that I am trying00:04:54
to announce and we will simply00:04:55
go and look so there we are on00:04:57
the dollar index that we will go comp00:04:59
compared to the US 10 yield so US 10y00:05:03
United States 10 government bonds Yi if00:05:06
we remove the y there we just have the price00:05:08
bonds we what interests us is00:05:09
the bond yield at maturity of 10 years we will00:05:11
click on New price scale and there we will00:05:13
therefore be able to have a comparison and00:05:15
as you can see in fact when the00:05:16
dollar increases we have the US which00:05:19
increase with when it falls it00:05:20
falls when it increases it increases00:05:22
when it falls it falls when it00:05:23
increases it increases so we see here00:05:24
very clearly this correlation between00:05:26
the movements of the dollar and the movement00:05:29
of bond yields of the yield of00:05:31
American bonds and when they00:05:32
think it is also completely logical00:05:34
in the sense that if the Yield of the00:05:36
bonds of an economy increases and00:05:38
therefore allows you to be paid much more,00:05:40
many more people will be00:05:42
interested in literally putting00:05:44
money into this economy there, therefore00:05:46
in this currency simply00:05:48
because you are paid more if I am asked00:05:49
today IOT you prefer to put your00:05:51
money in France it will work at 3%00:05:53
or you prefer to put it in the United States00:05:54
which will work at 5.5% you prefer it00:05:57
put in dollars in the United States which will00:05:58
work at 5.5 5% it is absolutely00:06:00
logical so if the bond yield increases00:06:02
we tend to see the currency which00:06:04
will also increase so now in00:06:05
this video what interests me is it's not00:06:07
fair to show you what the00:06:08
band yield of an economy is what I00:06:10
'm interested in showing you is what we00:06:12
call the Yield spread so what is00:06:14
the Yield spread Yield spread00:06:15
is when we are going to study the yield00:06:17
of two different bonds from two00:06:20
different economies but at00:06:22
equal maturity and we are going to look precisely at this00:06:24
difference we are going to look at this spread00:06:26
between these two Yid so that it00:06:27
speaks to you a little more a little more time we are00:06:29
going to study ozikiwi which00:06:31
is generally quite interesting when compared to00:06:33
its yield spread because as we know00:06:34
the Australian dollar and the00:06:36
New Zealand dollar are two currencies which00:06:37
tend to be correlated and move in a00:06:39
very similar way so the00:06:41
ozikiwi pair gives us really shows the00:06:43
difference in value that there is between the00:06:45
Australian dollar and the00:06:46
New Zealand dollar so now to go and00:06:48
study the yiel spread therefore from ozikiwi00:06:50
therefore the Yield spread between the yield00:06:51
of Australian bonds against00:06:53
that of New Zealand we go all00:06:55
simply go and enter the00:06:56
Australian one so at 100y which is therefore00:06:59
the symbol to have Australia tan00:07:01
government B y minus NZ 10y which is therefore00:07:04
the same thing for New Zealand00:07:06
it will not offer it to us since it is00:07:07
a formula that we will just click00:07:08
enter it will generally give us this00:07:10
thing which is unreadable we click00:07:12
once and we click again on New price scale00:07:14
and then there we have the yiel spread which00:07:16
appears which as we see00:07:18
obviously always has this correlation00:07:20
see the yiel spread when it goes down we00:07:22
tend to see o wi which goes down when00:07:24
it goes up we tend to see iki wi which00:07:26
goes up but sometimes we have certain00:07:27
potential Miss price there we are for00:07:29
example on 1 hour we can see that00:07:31
right here which was so from the 12th00:07:33
rather from the 15th of January we had00:07:35
ozikiwi which continued its fall and00:07:38
conversely we had a divergence where00:07:40
we saw the yiel spread of the yield00:07:42
of Australian bonds against00:07:44
that of New Zealand which00:07:45
increased and which finally increased Shadow00:07:48
which therefore gave us an indication00:07:49
that we call forward looking so before00:07:51
the price could show us these00:07:53
clues that there would00:07:54
potentially be an upward reversal00:07:56
and that is exactly what we saw00:07:58
we firstly saw an increase in00:07:59
the yiel spread followed subsequently by an00:08:02
increase in ozikiwi which came to catch up with00:08:04
its fair value which we could calculate00:08:06
with therefore the yiel spread even if as00:08:08
I say the yiel spread00:08:10
only takes into account the future expectations00:08:13
of Tau which therefore gives us a very00:08:14
good direction for currencies but00:08:16
sometimes there can obviously be00:08:17
external factors which disrupt00:08:20
everything but that is therefore a00:08:21
concrete example that I had not even00:08:22
prepared for you. example that I prepared for you00:08:24
was on euro dollar in example which00:08:26
I remember vividly which dates from00:08:28
2018 but so just to come back a00:08:29
little bit I hope you understand00:08:30
why do we use the yeld00:08:32
spread and how does the yeld00:08:33
spread show us black and white in00:08:36
graph terms in terms of comparison or in00:08:38
terms of future interest rates and00:08:40
as we know interest rates have a00:08:42
huge impact on the valuation of a00:08:44
currency where should this currency00:08:45
potentially go and so00:08:47
as I told you if we are now going00:08:49
to look for an example that I wanted to00:08:51
show you there this ozikiwi I had00:08:54
n't even necessarily seen it it's on Euro doollar00:08:56
so we're going to go on Euro dollar so00:08:58
if we want to look at the y spread for00:08:59
euro dollar we are going to compare00:09:01
that to as you know there is no00:09:03
central obligation for Europe so00:09:05
in general we are going to study the00:09:07
bonds of Germany so we are going to00:09:08
put 100y which is therefore Germany t00:09:11
government B minus US 10y the same we00:09:16
enter we click once new price00:09:17
scale and there we therefore have something00:09:19
which is that I wanted to show you which00:09:21
is quite striking and which I00:09:22
remember very well well so it's the end of 201700:09:26
beginning of 2018 okay so we see uh00:09:29
this correlation which is still in00:09:31
place okay that is to say that when we00:09:32
have euro-dollar which is falling we quite00:09:35
logically finally have the tent future00:09:38
of interest rates the spread the00:09:40
difference between Europe and the United States00:09:42
which is also falling it's rather logical we00:09:45
have this happening so people are selling00:09:47
the euro to buy the dollar makes00:09:49
complete sense okay then we at this00:09:51
increase on the euro dollar and an increase at the00:09:54
same time on the yel spread once again00:09:56
completely logical now00:09:58
this is where the logic starts a little you00:10:00
see that from September 2017 we have00:10:03
a continuation of an increase in the euro00:10:05
dollar until 'in February 2018 while the00:10:08
Yield spread clearly shows us00:10:11
a divergence, the Yield spread did00:10:13
not continue to rise like the Euro00:10:15
Dollar rather showed us a00:10:17
bearish movement which was00:10:19
arriving and therefore we had finally a00:10:20
divergence in this bullish movement on00:10:22
EUR dollar and this bearish movement on00:10:24
the Yield spread and that should have00:10:26
alarmed all the traders all the00:10:28
investors who were buying on00:10:30
euro dollar at that time and we can00:10:32
also see that so precisely this00:10:34
drop in the yel spread preceded the real00:10:37
drop in the euro dollar which came a00:10:39
little later so we find ourselves00:10:41
in the same scenario I said that the00:10:43
yel spread is used as a forward00:10:45
looking indicator unlike00:10:48
me gives you a stupidity if we look at the00:10:50
MACD we look at the stockastics we00:10:53
look at the Bollinger bands or00:10:54
technical indicators they will00:10:56
always be what we call lagging00:10:57
indicators that is to say they take00:10:59
what is past in the past00:11:00
agree to do calculations make00:11:02
a formula and give you a new00:11:03
figure but therefore in no case does it predict00:11:05
the future it just shows you through00:11:07
mathematical formulas what00:11:08
happened in the past so by the way00:11:09
for make it simpler for you00:11:11
but so right here you can take a00:11:13
pen and a pencil I simply gave you00:11:15
the tier Ys so from the00:11:19
United States of Germany of00:11:20
England of Japan of Canada of00:11:22
Australia from New Zealand from00:11:23
Fran Suisse and the VIX nothing to do with each other and00:11:25
so as I hope you understood00:11:27
if we now wanted to go and study00:11:29
poundn and we wanted to look at the spread00:11:32
the Yield spread on poundn we would simply go and00:11:35
do GBP 10y so the base00:11:37
currency minus the qu currency so JB00:11:41
jb10y Mo JP 10y and that will00:11:45
give us the yild spread and remember00:11:47
the little manipulation you click once you00:11:49
click again new price scale so that it00:11:51
is well formatted on trading View and we00:11:53
are good now I would like00:11:54
to present to you the limitation in a way00:11:56
that we have with the use of the Y spread00:11:59
and so that is something00:12:00
current in addition if we are going to study France00:12:02
Switzerland against the Japanese yen in terms00:12:04
of y so the yield on the bonds00:12:06
of its respective economies let's do00:12:08
this together we will realize00:12:10
something so firstly at the00:12:11
level of Japan if we look in00:12:13
relation to the start of the year 2023 we see00:12:16
that therefore throughout 2023 the Yield00:12:19
so the yield00:12:20
on 10-year Japanese bonds has increased in value00:12:23
and has gone from more or less00:12:25
0.42% yield to00:12:29
0.71 currently when I make this00:12:31
video so that obviously tends to00:12:34
be rather positive theoretically for00:12:36
the Japanese currency for the00:12:38
Japanese yen the yields are00:12:40
increasing why moreover these Ys00:12:42
are increasing quite00:12:43
simply because Japan is one00:12:45
of the only economies developed00:12:47
today to have its future00:12:49
interest rate which is rather HH therefore where Bank00:12:51
of Japan has planned to get out of these00:12:53
negative key interest rates which are00:12:56
currently in place while all00:12:57
the other developed economies are00:12:59
rather d 'a dvich point of view00:13:00
that is to say that they will rather have a00:13:02
tendency to cut interest rates in00:13:03
2024 which will therefore obviously have a tendency to00:13:06
pull yields downward in short the00:13:08
Japanese yiels we can see that it is00:13:10
up compared to the start of 2023 and if we00:13:13
look at the Swiss Yield we see that00:13:15
it is the opposite we see that the00:13:17
Swiss Yield is losing value and indeed00:13:19
as I was telling you if00:13:20
we are going to see Swiss National Bank it is one00:13:22
of the most devisive central banks00:13:24
if we look for example at the00:13:26
interest rate expectations at the next meeting00:13:28
which is therefore on March 21 we see that00:13:30
among all the developed economies00:13:33
the highest probability low remains in00:13:35
Switzerland where we still have 35% that the00:13:37
Swiss National Bank cuts its00:13:39
interest rates at the next decision on00:13:42
March 21 even if we remain in majority00:13:43
65% so that we keep them and also as00:13:45
you can see on the future expectation therefore00:13:48
employed interest rate future of the SNB00:13:51
we see these rates reduced for the00:13:54
year and a half which comes whereas if we00:13:57
go to study Bank of Japan we can00:13:59
simply see that it is the opposite and00:14:01
we expects rates to increase00:14:02
in 2024 until 2025 having this two00:14:06
information we know that we have00:14:08
something which will tend to pull the00:14:10
Japanese yen up and something00:14:11
which will tend to pull the00:14:13
Swiss franc up the decline therefore by taking these00:14:15
two yields by thinking about the00:14:18
Swiss yen yield spread what can we00:14:20
obviously conclude from this if the Swiss Yield00:14:23
falls the Japanese Yield rises the spread00:14:25
will be sharply falling which00:14:27
should therefore reflect more or less commen00:14:30
sa the price of sissien which therefore more or00:14:32
less over the last year sissien00:14:34
should be in a downward trend00:14:36
however if we go to study swiissien in00:14:38
daily we can see that from the start of00:14:40
2023 swiissien is in a complete upward trend00:14:43
and if we go so comparing it00:14:45
with its yield spread we see in fact00:14:47
that the yield spread made sense until00:14:50
approximately April 2023 and00:14:53
from April 2023 there we have a decorrelation,00:14:56
okay we have a divergence which is00:14:58
well marked which is clear with the Yield00:15:00
spread which is going down while00:15:02
Swissien continues to rise so00:15:05
it is exactly the same principle the00:15:08
same structure that we saw just before00:15:10
on Eurodollar at the end of 2017 beginning of 2018 where00:15:14
the Yield spread was a forward looking00:15:16
indicator that showed us in advance the00:15:19
fall of the EO dollar so in this case the00:15:21
fall of the H spread precisely upstream of00:15:24
the potential fall of Swissien00:15:26
shows us that Swissien would00:15:28
theoretically be potentially overvalued00:15:30
so that's one thing it's is a good00:15:32
thing to know now the problem00:15:33
is the timing because we've known it for a00:15:35
while since00:15:37
last September I see clearly that there is00:15:39
a decorrelation between the swissienne yiel spread00:15:41
and the valuation of the00:15:43
Swiss currency pair does00:15:45
that mean that I enter into00:15:47
sales positions directly well00:15:49
clearly not because otherwise you can00:15:50
see that I would have literally been00:15:51
lit and that's where we're going to say00:15:53
all the the complexity that is to say that00:15:54
it is good to have a direction00:15:56
now we need the catalysts00:15:57
and not get into00:15:59
selling positions here with ultra wide stops00:16:02
of Restory World which have absolutely00:16:03
no meaning and keep our positions00:16:05
for 6 months while waiting for the price to00:16:07
return to normal levels00:16:09
so if we really look at the00:16:11
duration of this decorrelation that we saw00:16:12
in 2017-28 on eurod dollar which00:16:15
therefore gave us a sell signal that euro00:16:17
dollar was going to fall that we saw it00:16:19
together but for how00:16:20
long did we have that more or less00:16:22
it was from here that Euro dollar00:16:24
really took off it's from from here00:16:26
the yield spread showed us00:16:28
continuing downwards while the00:16:30
dollar diverges and diverges upwards so00:16:32
we still have approximately 167 days00:16:34
between November 2017 and the real trigger00:16:37
was in April 2018 so you see that you00:16:39
have time all the same and therefore the00:16:40
person who would have wanted to sell euro00:16:42
dollarr for the reason of Guild spread00:16:45
here here here here it would have happened that00:16:48
taking losses so the most00:16:50
important once again and that is00:16:51
generally why we combine00:16:54
l technical analysis to00:16:55
fundamental analysis is the timing because00:16:58
as I told you fundamentally00:16:59
speaking Sissienne for example by following00:17:02
its yield spread should see its price00:17:05
drop which fundamentally speaking00:17:07
is also logical when we see the future00:17:08
of politics monetary policy of the SNB and00:17:10
the BoJ which is reflected once again00:17:13
by the yel spread which we also know that00:17:15
the Swiss National Bank has the unfortunate00:17:17
habit of intervening in the00:17:19
foreign exchange market to try to evaluate the00:17:20
France Suisse when France Suisse is gaining00:17:22
too much value which they openly00:17:23
said was the case currently so00:17:25
once again sisien I00:17:27
potentially have reasons to want to00:17:29
sell this it's my direction now00:17:31
I need confirmations and then00:17:33
as you can see we are for the moment00:17:34
in range until the beginning of the year and00:17:37
only basing yourself on the spread has its00:17:40
limits and that's why I00:17:41
always say it but in trading you have to see00:17:43
all the information as pieces00:17:45
of the puzzle and too many people try to,00:17:47
for example, copy what00:17:48
someone does by taking two pieces of their00:17:50
puzzle and putting them in their own puzzle00:17:52
and that makes no sense, you have to have00:17:54
all the pieces of the puzzle which go00:17:56
through an understanding of how the00:17:58
financial markets work of00:17:59
the economy the macro-economics of the00:18:01
fundamental movements of how00:18:03
the flows of buyers work the flows00:18:05
of sellers technical analysis00:18:06
emotion psychology finally in short00:18:08
once again it's personally00:18:09
it's a subject that fascinates me in the00:18:10
sense that it's literally a bit like00:18:12
a treasure map if you want and in00:18:13
this video I simply00:18:14
gave you an extra tool to look at and00:18:18
analyze to be able to00:18:19
potentially find the right price the right00:18:21
value of a pair of quote which00:18:23
should therefore allow you to find00:18:26
opportunities on the markets to00:18:27
trade on this it is a00:18:29
more global and deeper understanding of the00:18:31
currency markets so FX market00:18:32
interests you I invite you to go and check00:18:34
all the other videos on my00:18:35
Youtube channel where I talk a lot about00:18:36
fundamental analysis I show you00:18:38
case studies of different Trites that I was able to00:18:39
take there is really everything so I00:18:40
invite you to check that on this Ciot I00:18:42
wish you good luck late evening ciao00:18:51
[Music]00:18:57
ciao00:19:04
[Music]Description:
Dans cette vidéo on se penche sur un des seul indicateur d'analyse fondamental forex qui n'est pas en retard et qui se base sur le futur des taux et non pas des datas précédentes. On va découvrir les yield spreads ensemble qui se basent sur le marchés obligataires et l'attentes des taux futurs de banques centrales. Si vous voulez plus de vidéos sur le trading, la finance et l’investissement n'oubliez pas de liker, commenter et de vous abonner ! ⚠️ Soutenez-moi en vous abonnant à ma chaîne ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 📈 FORMATIONS & SERVICES 📈▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 🎓 Formation Forex Pro Trader Program FR : https://youtubee--youngtraderwealth.thrivecart.com/forex-pro-trader-program-francais/ 💎 Investissement Long-Terme & Finance Personnelle: https://www.youngtraderwealth.com/smartfinancepro 📊 Abonnement Datanalyse : https://www.youngtraderwealth.com/datanalyseproservice ⭐️ Avis Vérifiés : https://fr-be.trustpilot.com/review/www.youngtraderwealth.com 🎁 Telegram Gratuit: https://t.me/youngtraderwealthofficial ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 📲 LIENS UTILES ET OUTILS 📲▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 🏦 Brokers Recommandés : https://blueberrymarkets.com/lp/youngtraderwealth/ 🖥 Ma Plateforme d’Analyse : https://www.tradingview.com/pricing/?share_your_love=Youngtraderwealth 📸 Instagram : https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser 🐦 Twitter : https://bit.ly/39R6uMS 📸 Monteur Video: @theobachelier Je tiens à préciser que je ne propose pas de services d'investissement aux particuliers donc ne me demandez pas de trader à votre place. La seule chose que je peux faire c'est vous enseigner et vous entraîner sur comment je trade le forex.
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