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Russian
00:00:01
Rustamzade, leading analyst of the00:00:03
analytical center Stem a gel00:00:05
Hello, thank you very much for being00:00:07
with us Salam alaikum00:00:09
Salam,00:00:12
I welcome you and your audience Thank you00:00:16
for the invitation, thank you for being with00:00:19
us, especially since I know that you have a00:00:21
lot of work yes And to snatch a whole hour in00:00:24
order to communicate with the Ukrainian00:00:25
audience. Not only is this really00:00:26
very valuable, we will use every minute to00:00:29
benefit because from00:00:31
our first meeting you were the person00:00:33
who did not try to say something that00:00:35
we would like, you spoke the absolute00:00:37
truth, but also Today it seems to me that about00:00:39
six months ago, maybe a little more, we00:00:41
got to know each other And if you look in00:00:43
retrospect, all your words today00:00:44
receive very clear outlines of what00:00:47
was conveyed to the Ukrainian army, how everything00:00:50
will develop, what the00:00:51
Russian army is capable of for itself. Just found00:00:54
confirmation to all these words But00:00:56
today I ask you to enter into00:00:59
such a dispute in absentia with Western analysts. I00:01:02
know that you also keep track of all the00:01:04
headlines and all the articles and you know that00:01:06
there is a certain ruler, some kind of00:01:09
stopwatch with which they are trying to00:01:10
analyze the Ukrainian offensive00:01:12
and weigh whether it is effective or not. You,00:01:16
as a military man who also knows00:01:18
what it means to liberate territories at the cost of00:01:20
human blood, how do you feel about these00:01:23
assessments and do you understand what is behind them? Let’s00:01:27
say00:01:30
this was the case throughout the periods of the war and before00:01:35
the war,00:01:36
and we should leave a post on Facebook at home about this.00:01:39
Unfortunately, analytics has been00:01:42
very busy lately. a lot of propaganda00:01:47
part of the00:01:49
political vitamin is divided into two00:01:51
parts00:01:53
Part of the political elite they may00:01:57
not even be pro-Russian but they are afraid of the00:02:00
results of the Russian Ukrainian they are00:02:03
afraid of a world without Russia00:02:05
these are the people who are in this00:02:08
paradigm a lot comes from them let’s say00:02:13
unrealistic analysts00:02:23
military science military doctrines, in contrast00:02:26
to, say, work on any00:02:30
other sphere of human activity,00:02:33
they are written in blood00:02:36
that the Ukrainian offensive, even if00:02:39
it began, is really impossible to00:02:50
achieve production under00:02:54
appropriate conditions when the00:02:56
attacking side has an00:02:59
advantage in the air, an advantage on00:03:02
the ground through fire damage, and00:03:05
also numerical superiority Well, yes Western00:03:08
military science It may be an00:03:10
innumerable quantitative superiority00:03:12
in manpower, they can focus on the00:03:16
air component on fire00:03:19
weapons, but again00:03:23
at least two of these three conditions00:03:25
must be met and those people are experts,00:03:29
analysts, journalists from the Russian00:03:32
side of the Western side or any00:03:35
other side who writes that the00:03:38
result of the Ukrainian offensive is not00:03:41
impressive, or this person does not quite00:03:44
understand everything about military affairs, or this00:03:46
person is wishful thinking;00:03:49
not a single real person who is aware of the00:03:52
Russian Ukrainian00:03:56
war could have had an illusion00:03:59
because there are no conditions for00:04:01
favorable00:04:03
conduct of00:04:05
offensive operations00:04:10
on the ground and against00:04:14
attacking against a fortified entire00:04:17
defensive system, but there are miracles in the world,00:04:21
but this is a very rare case, that’s00:04:24
what I can say about people who00:04:26
say that you00:04:29
have started a major offensive, but you seem to be failing, that’s00:04:33
what I can say I00:04:39
emphasize in the information00:04:41
space We are also at war and expectations00:04:44
were too high, but here again I00:04:46
would like to go back to your military00:04:48
experience and your colleagues say that00:04:51
people are not like me I am a civilian I do00:04:53
n’t understand anything about this And those who were00:04:55
on they explain to the war how difficult it is and at00:04:58
what high cost everything happens. And in00:05:00
particular, they point out that look, but it is00:05:02
impossible to open some book and00:05:04
read that in the Zaporozhye00:05:06
direction you need to move. So in00:05:08
Donetsk you need to do it differently because this is a00:05:10
war, this is a compilation of such a symbiosis there are00:05:12
many different things here, there is something from the00:05:14
First World War, something from the Second World00:05:16
War, but in general everything is a00:05:19
completely new history. So why,00:05:22
given that many military men00:05:24
also understand in NATO and in America in the West, your00:05:26
colleagues in Azerbaijan do not emphasize that00:05:29
you cannot push where there is no experience00:05:31
That is, when you cannot write off you00:05:34
have to write yourself,00:05:38
I don’t quite understand this, I don’t quite00:05:41
understand this, most likely to the00:05:44
political leadership of countries that00:05:47
do not transfer weapons weapons systems in the00:05:51
required quantity, something needs to be said to00:05:54
your electorate of00:05:56
some kind I00:05:58
have no other assumptions. Because you know, for00:06:03
more than a year now, there has been a balance, what kind of00:06:07
balance this is. This is after and00:06:10
now, when neither side has a00:06:14
decisive00:06:16
big advantage on the other side,00:06:19
your war has become more and more reminiscent of the00:06:22
early Iranian war that lasted 800:06:24
years without any large00:06:27
territorial conquests and this is00:06:30
specially dosed. That is, if the00:06:33
fire capabilities of your army00:06:38
can be increased by 20 to00:06:41
30 percent by transferring missile systems to aviation, but this does not happen,00:06:47
well, at the same time, it’s like throwing mud at the00:06:50
warring army. This is not quite decently, but00:06:53
it’s as if we live in such a world, there’s00:06:56
nothing you can do about it,00:06:58
of course, now life is probably an even more00:07:00
difficult question because on the one00:07:01
hand, yes, you bring up these parallels of00:07:03
past wars and indeed00:07:05
now the Russian army has gone into00:07:07
deep defense, the Ukrainian is advancing, but00:07:09
we we are waiting, yes, when there will be disequilibrium,00:07:11
the advantage will be in our favor and there are such00:07:14
assumptions, I know that you have been asked00:07:15
that this war may not last for00:07:18
years, but for decades, I am00:07:20
asking you about this without fear because you00:07:22
said to such a question that no, wait,00:07:23
because there are many countries interested00:07:26
On the contrary, to strengthen our efforts in Ukraine00:07:28
and there is no need to go far, this is America00:07:31
next year, elections no matter how00:07:33
cruel it would be, but we cannot separate politics00:07:34
from our war, so here is an interesting00:07:37
question in my head, I also understand, as do you,00:07:40
that of course America is not may, among other things,00:07:42
lose this war, but you see, since00:07:44
we are gnawing it out Kamsa that are not there,00:07:46
planes for which they will talk separately,00:07:48
what then is the disposition Do they really00:07:51
think that there is still time, that there is still enough of it,00:07:55
you know, last night I wanted to00:07:59
write this post later as if I’m waiting for00:08:02
confirmation that Biden decided to refuse to00:08:06
provide you with his attacks, I did00:08:08
n’t see confirmation If I saw00:08:11
confirmation in I wrote this on my00:08:13
Facebook, but such a case turned up, I’ll00:08:17
answer here00:08:19
you know there are people who plan00:08:22
all the processes, including the transfer of weapons00:08:25
and, as it were, an00:08:28
increase Ukrainian capabilities I00:08:31
think that these people are going too far,00:08:33
they overestimate Ukraine and00:08:36
underestimate Russia,00:08:38
they are inspired by Afghanistan, but00:08:41
Afghanistan is not Ukraine and Ukraine is a00:08:47
centralized state that00:08:50
has a much better chance of surviving such a00:08:54
conventional war because it does not have the00:08:56
infrastructure development of the00:08:58
economic development of Ukraine, a country in Europe00:09:02
that has a developed economy00:09:04
has its own infrastructure00:09:07
and is trying to create this00:09:11
balance, but Ukraine may not be able to withstand it.00:09:14
Ukraine may not be able to withstand it. I think that00:09:17
10 to 20 percent are not00:09:20
going too far. But somewhere like this, that is, as00:09:24
for your00:09:26
answer to the question How long can00:09:29
this last? The fact is that the resources of the Russian00:09:31
Federation are not infinite, they have00:09:34
problems with the production of a large00:09:36
range of weapons,00:09:39
these weapons will not fall on them from above. There00:09:41
is one factor that00:09:45
other experts have also said without the00:09:52
Chinese Russian army.00:09:59
That is, this is the worst scenario for00:10:02
Ukraine now00:10:05
but the fact is that00:10:08
you have prospects, you have00:10:13
economic assistance coming to you Technical00:10:16
assistance Yes, not enough for00:10:20
you to make a breakthrough, but enough00:10:24
for you to feel in00:10:28
good shape and with the provision of various00:10:31
weapons systems you will increase00:10:34
your combat possibilities whereas the00:10:36
Russian Federation such such a00:10:39
Russian Federation No, I believe that the00:10:42
whole00:10:44
mass, as it were, provision of weapons to the00:10:48
Russian Federation the best00:10:51
scenario is a year and a half, two years00:10:53
longer than Russia will hold out, you will destroy00:10:56
their tanks, destroy their artillery,00:10:59
destroy planes, which will automatically00:11:02
reduce00:11:04
combat activity But when will it be resolved The00:11:08
Russian Ukrainian conflict already has a00:11:10
lot of components. Let me predict this.00:11:15
Let me ask you about them in an agile way about00:11:17
what is happening behind the curb, well,00:11:18
more precisely, this is already happening. Of course, our00:11:20
territory about the Russian army, we00:11:22
had a conversation with you. It was00:11:23
January-February, which means in our country00:11:25
There was panic in Ukraine, another Russian00:11:28
offensive, and so Fear has big eyes,00:11:30
then of course we imagined the most00:11:32
terrible scenarios, up to the point that they00:11:34
would try to go to Kiev again. I remember00:11:37
how you said to listen, but what are you00:11:39
talking about, they have neither the strength nor the means But00:11:41
still, you must understand Yes, we are at00:11:43
war and emotionally we were overheated00:11:44
And now the word has all come true. We couldn’t even00:11:47
understand where the offensive began and00:11:49
where it ended, but at the same time they00:11:51
really remain on our00:11:53
territory. You know that about 20%,00:11:55
maybe a little less already Now our00:11:57
territory is occupied, about 400 thousand00:11:59
Russian criminals are here00:12:01
Yes, we are breaking them Yes, Bakhmod incredibly00:12:05
undermined their00:12:06
combat reserves, they are running out Well, or00:12:09
they are running out of equipment,00:12:11
but at the same time they still00:12:13
exist here, what is the strength of the Russian00:12:15
army today? exceptionally infinite00:12:17
human resource00:12:22
their strength is yours,00:12:28
that is, if you had 20 percent more00:12:33
activist systems, let’s say, flying in00:12:37
the air, aviation is00:12:39
tired of destroying this, depleting this, it’s00:12:43
just your strength should, here they have the strength of00:12:47
any00:12:48
strong features of the classical army no longer00:12:51
left and I don’t I see highly00:12:54
motivated people who will be themselves00:12:56
and I don’t seem to see00:13:02
this 400 thousandth army. I don’t see the00:13:06
potential of fire weapons00:13:09
so that they can inflict such00:13:12
losses on you that the prospects could00:13:14
hang weakening,00:13:18
so it turns out that00:13:21
the state of equilibrium is that you fight00:13:25
constantly but neither one enemy is not00:13:28
able to break the other's hand, new00:13:30
guys, but it is definitely clear What is the00:13:34
strength of the Russian Federation is its00:13:37
demography00:13:38
this is its demography when I said00:13:42
that they do not calculate the strength of Ukraine They do00:13:45
not calculate the demography of Ukraine you00:13:48
cannot afford losses one in two00:13:51
one in three of them are bigger than you00:13:56
two or three times that's00:14:00
what Khrom those people who plan00:14:03
they don't understand that the population00:14:06
will say 25-30 to Ukraine And in Russia you still have 70 8000:14:11
and this is a big mobilization00:14:13
resource00:14:14
Ukraine must fight by the standards loss of00:14:17
one five any other scenario will be00:14:21
disastrous for Ukraine,00:14:23
you can win the male population but00:14:27
are left without a male population in general.00:14:29
The strength of Russia and as a military component00:14:33
you have a balance,00:14:35
you cannot destroy them00:14:41
decisive, as if a very strong lesson00:14:45
very often. We are told that before00:14:48
we had long-range missiles00:14:51
we were told that if they00:14:53
appear, it will not be a gamechanger, that00:14:55
is, it is impossible to imagine that00:14:56
missiles appear, everything changes, but they00:14:58
were right, that is, we are now working with00:15:00
the help of Shadow, of course the war00:15:02
has not ended, the same thing they tell us about00:15:04
the future If we had Atakans, do00:15:06
n’t think that it is well received and00:15:09
the same thing was used in fact, we00:15:11
don’t have aviation, we wo00:15:15
n’t talk to you in more detail right now.00:15:17
We were also told that look at the00:15:19
f-16 aviation, it will not be a game00:15:22
changer for the Ukrainian war Yes, this will00:15:24
protect your military. Yes, this will allow00:15:26
you to carry out more successful operations, but00:15:28
this does not mean that everything will change. Do00:15:30
you agree with this and what then is the most00:15:33
important function that00:15:35
this aviation should perform? What do they do to strengthen us00:15:37
if they do not radically change? You00:15:41
know everything about it00:15:52
too learn and your enemy is learning, he00:15:57
began to decentralize,00:15:59
centralize his logistics and there are00:16:03
practically no tasty targets left for the Atacamps,00:16:06
unlike the f-16 fighter. But00:16:12
even in the expert community there are people00:16:15
who do not quite understand how00:16:17
modern air platforms fight and there will be00:16:19
16 18 or some kind of or another aircraft, it00:16:24
works in a connected system00:16:26
if flights in the sixteenth00:16:29
are provided with continuous00:16:32
radar tracking which00:16:34
sharply increases its00:16:36
development of strike capabilities. This00:16:40
sixteenth has the latest00:16:41
promising air-class missile systems00:16:44
Earth-class air-air has00:16:47
special ammunition with which it00:16:50
flies up to the front line discovers00:16:52
destroy, say in one flight there are 600:16:55
tanks, how can these weapons not be00:16:58
smaller? That’s how now the most00:17:02
effective air component that00:17:04
affects you is the K52 helicopters,00:17:06
they are equipped with missile weapons00:17:10
immediately targeting up to 1200:17:13
km,00:17:14
they shoot00:17:17
from a distance and you don’t have all the00:17:20
air defense systems00:17:25
so that there are two reliable lines,00:17:39
that is, that is, if they give you an00:17:43
F16 block 50, go and take it flying and it00:17:52
will differ from the MiG 29 that you have in your arsenal, but I00:17:55
hope for 20 percent, this is an aircraft from 1990, but00:17:58
if they give you ground-based radar systems of the00:18:01
Lik tactical system 16, which the line of00:18:05
detected air targets will advance by00:18:08
200 to 300 kilometers, it will not leave a00:18:11
single chance for a Russian fighter,00:18:14
including 135,00:18:17
if you are00:18:21
provided with a system, remove technical00:18:23
reconnaissance that will allow you to effectively00:18:26
destroy detect and destroy the00:18:28
air defense system, as00:18:32
NATO did in Yugoslavia, as it did00:18:35
The Americans are natu in America, the aircraft is a00:18:38
multi-functional platform and 1600:18:40
becomes the00:18:42
king of the earth and air, any00:18:46
target detected within a short time00:18:48
is destroyed, be it there, be it an airplane,00:18:51
be it a helicopter. So I think that00:18:54
the transfer of fighters to 16 by all00:18:58
components in which NATO has carried out00:19:00
its air operations in recent years 2000:19:02
years to do00:19:05
And if they give it to you at 16 just like that00:19:09
without accompanying components,00:19:11
of course it won’t be there00:19:14
Let’s say one suddenly for our00:19:16
viewers Who doesn’t know what to00:19:19
say correctly Probably the sky is a00:19:21
more familiar habitat for you This is00:19:24
because you are not only an00:19:25
analyst who understands military00:19:28
components And this is just yours, that’s why you00:19:30
talk about it so easily and then I00:19:32
’ll let you, I’ll just take advantage of your00:19:34
experience and ask. Now it’s become00:19:36
known that00:19:38
the training of Ukrainian pilots is being00:19:40
postponed a little, as if it00:19:42
should have already started, but now from00:19:44
We are behind schedule00:19:47
and our Minister of Foreign Affairs is talking about00:19:49
this, there are probably some00:19:50
internal reasons for this that we are not00:19:52
very privy to, but nevertheless,00:19:54
if we take a Pilot who already00:19:58
exists and is himself on that equipment on those00:20:00
planes which we have in Ukraine,00:20:02
how long can its training last, and00:20:05
of course, separated by commas, I’m asking you00:20:08
about the technical personnel because you need to00:20:09
understand that it’s not just you who00:20:11
received a plane by mail and flew, that is, a whole00:20:13
complex and you essentially just named00:20:15
only one of its elements,00:20:18
the problem here is not the training of Ukrainian00:20:22
pilots, there are various methods of00:20:25
tightening combat training, let’s say00:20:27
some pilot is preparing against00:20:29
air targets that some pilot00:20:31
is preparing against ground targets, there are00:20:34
methods and methods, including training of00:20:37
technical personnel, let’s say Yes, that’s00:20:41
a lot of time00:20:44
technical staff are being trained to make00:20:45
repairs or change some complex00:20:48
systems and components, this can be done on the00:20:51
territory of Poland, what you did.00:20:53
So this is an excuse for people who do not00:20:56
want to give the problem a political00:20:59
solution; there is a political solution that00:21:03
arrives at you within two weeks at 16 a00:21:09
technical intelligence and a private military00:21:13
company is coming to you, which has ready-made combat00:21:15
pilots who have been00:21:18
shooting down air targets for 10 years, working on00:21:20
ground targets and the technical staff,00:21:23
accordingly, the problem is a political00:21:26
solution, they don’t want it, they don’t want00:21:28
it, and why don’t they want it?00:21:35
they00:21:37
were stuck with the idea that they should not00:21:39
escalate this conflict, they have a00:21:42
red line, they will not cross this red line, they will00:21:46
not jump,00:21:49
they probably have reasons to think so because00:21:52
you know Alena, even we are people who seem to be00:21:56
in the depths of the processes, we00:21:58
see the dark side The moon00:22:01
and the people who are in power on00:22:04
whom there is completeness of information They00:22:08
see the Moon as its dark side and00:22:12
light and to say that your interests are being given up, you are being00:22:16
drained no, but for some00:22:20
reason they are doing so. The00:22:23
only thing I don’t agree with is that they seem to00:22:29
overestimate your00:22:31
demographic I00:22:34
can’t add anything else,00:22:40
I understand what you’re talking about And at the same time,00:22:42
I think that you also hear All00:22:43
these statements about this are said by both the00:22:45
American military and representatives of00:22:48
NATO separately who say Well, we can00:22:50
see exactly how the occupation of Crimea is happening,00:22:52
how the armed forces go there and so00:22:55
on But considering Well, plus or minus, yes, we00:22:57
understand the nomenclature of what we00:22:59
have and of course not individually, that is, in00:23:02
this aspect there is the Dark Side of the Moon, but00:23:05
plus or minus we know how much we have strengthened the00:23:06
Ukrainian army, and do you see00:23:08
the potential here and I I’m saying right away that we didn’t00:23:11
even go through the Berdyansk direction00:23:13
or the Topol Zaporozhye region, we have00:23:16
not yet been occupied, not liberated, but00:23:19
they are already talking about Crimea, how00:23:20
realistic is this goal in your opinion00:23:24
[music]00:23:32
but there are no two out of three conditions for00:23:35
carrying out offensive operations that00:23:39
may be promising now as already It’s00:23:43
getting to the point that you How do you start00:23:46
opposition battles somewhere00:23:48
the Russians are attacking00:23:51
no00:23:54
no they’re not creating it Now if we say00:23:58
a friend will suit you it can steal Komi there00:24:01
maybe I don’t know Maybe somewhere you have00:24:04
something there eat or let's say that 2000:24:08
haima charged you at some point00:24:11
are fighting, you will create a gap and advance00:24:15
But if00:24:19
what you are fighting with you00:24:22
do not have the same reserve let's say00:24:25
through fire advantage 20 3000:24:28
40 percent00:24:29
[music]00:24:32
perspectives and I myself of what to do00:24:37
such large self-offensive00:24:40
operations with high dynamics00:24:42
are sacrifices. Such a war is required by the paradigm of00:24:46
military attrition; you are exhausted on00:24:48
some section of the00:24:51
enemy’s front; he moves forward to weld00:24:55
some village on some line of defense.00:24:58
And I seem to have a very bad perception of the people00:25:03
who create the paradigm of a rapid00:25:05
offensive,00:25:08
as it were, Why deceive yourself, why are00:25:12
you deceiving your society, why are you00:25:15
creating an emotional swing Why? I do00:25:18
n’t quite00:25:20
understand, they have political elites of different00:25:25
political groups with their own tasks, but how would00:25:28
you fight? There must be integrity, there must00:25:31
be an understanding of people what our00:25:33
capabilities are for what we can go, but the00:25:36
person has two months, says Yes, yes, it’s00:25:38
coming00:25:40
that he’s tortured00:25:47
in this regard, you’re absolutely right, there’s still00:25:49
one aspect to having reserves of00:25:51
equipment, I was surprised today. My00:25:53
colleague shared information, he says00:25:55
that in Romania it seems about 80 If00:25:58
I’m not mistaken, khaimar with and you think what the00:26:01
hell is Romania now with these aimaruses00:26:03
that are so extremely important for Ukraine but you00:26:05
can’t won’t give everything00:26:07
give 20 For us this will be an important00:26:10
strengthening But at the same moment Romania there is00:26:12
more afraid for its safety,00:26:42
this will take years00:26:46
so they00:26:48
are increasing as if the possibilities are your00:26:51
possibilities Well, good for you, here are all the weapons in00:27:11
a country that has at least 20-30 at least a00:27:14
nuclear charge 1000:27:16
[music]00:27:18
Ephraim your soul hurts, you are being depleted,00:27:22
it’s difficult for you, it’s difficult for you, but here’s the reality,00:27:27
a way, a real chance, a real option,00:27:30
you can’t leave yours the problem of your00:27:34
war for your children is to fight like this,00:27:38
as the beautiful Gil offers you00:27:42
to the west to some,00:27:45
I remember your lesson Yes, just00:27:47
like there is a certain Triad on the battlefield, this is00:27:49
connected with00:27:51
infantry fighting vehicles, aviation tanks, and there is a Triad00:27:53
that you told about00:27:56
how to destroy Greetings to the Russian Federation00:27:58
Yes, this is economics, this is politics,00:28:00
externally this is isolation, but this is of course the00:28:03
military component, of course, but at the same time,00:28:05
I will now compare,00:28:07
probably, partly with some experience that00:28:09
Azerbaijan went through; you were00:28:13
offered negotiations many times, you00:28:15
agreed to them many times, each time you got burned00:28:17
because the enemy was enough despicable00:28:19
now we have literally a few weeks00:28:22
ago you know that he visited Kiev00:28:24
once again glovation Well, besides the fact00:28:26
that they shared with him some plans about the00:28:28
offensive there the phrase was heard again and again00:28:30
you get an advantage on the00:28:33
battlefield there was a separately discussed00:28:35
story with Crimea, it’s not for nothing that I asked you,00:28:36
you turn your guns towards00:28:39
Crimea Well, and you force the enemy to either00:28:41
sit down at the negotiating table or00:28:44
try to escape the peninsula, I honestly00:28:47
admit to you again, I emphasize that I am00:28:49
exclusively a civilian, I don’t00:28:50
believe that the Russians will flee from the cream00:28:52
I think that they will really die there,00:28:54
these negotiations that are00:28:55
offered to us or variations How do you feel about this?00:29:00
You pointed out a good example. I’ll start with us,00:29:06
unlike you, we are negotiating with the00:29:09
weaker side00:29:12
and here you are. Imagine what the weaker00:29:15
side does, yes00:29:17
Every day what - these are new conditions,00:29:20
some kind of provocations, this is a country weaker than00:29:23
us two or three times. Here you are. Imagine what a00:29:26
country will do to you that will,00:29:28
as it were, negotiate with you, the00:29:33
stronger side, that’s00:29:35
why I’m saying if you don’t want to00:29:38
leave the war, your children.00:29:42
This war will00:29:46
most likely end. negotiations, but00:29:48
at what stage must we understand that00:29:52
losing this war, even through00:29:55
political negotiations, will lead00:30:01
to irreversible processes in the Russian00:30:03
Federation? Do00:30:07
you think the00:30:09
political in Russia will agree00:30:13
that everything00:30:15
will be fine? Everything will be fine.00:30:22
No, I don’t believe that, firstly, you will be able to00:30:27
reach Crimea00:30:29
until the beginning of autumn00:30:32
without large losses and indicated the case00:30:34
that suddenly they will give you a lot of weapons00:30:38
and even if you get to Crimea,00:30:42
not a single politician will00:30:45
agree to concessions to Crimea00:30:49
to create blow up your country from the inside, you00:30:52
need to understand that00:30:54
the West can offer a lot of things,00:30:57
you know there are different methods00:31:01
Various approaches, I said that the world00:31:05
is divided into conservatives,00:31:07
conservatives scare them, they are afraid not00:31:12
only that Russia will remain there. No,00:31:15
they are afraid of the New World because Russia00:31:18
is the00:31:20
Cornerstone of the world00:31:22
security architecture, they are afraid of what will happen to this00:31:25
world,00:31:32
there will be more such proposals,00:31:42
and everything else00:31:45
is not a way out of your situation00:31:50
Agel Correctly, I understand when you00:31:52
say that Russia is the00:31:53
Cornerstone, that is, it’s obvious Yes, what place does00:31:57
Russia still occupy in today’s world,00:31:58
that this stone cannot be obtained, I do00:32:01
n’t know, I don’t know, you can00:32:03
only grind it down, that’s what they00:32:05
essentially do and the armed forces of Ukraine00:32:06
Because when you talk about00:32:09
conservatives, those who are afraid in the West and00:32:11
change, we saw this00:32:13
very clearly last week. I admit honestly, I00:32:15
underestimated Yevgeny Prigozhin. It00:32:18
always seemed to me that this was a very00:32:19
marginal topic. I didn’t like00:32:22
asking my guests about him and experts Well,00:32:25
because the war is so big and the00:32:27
private military company00:32:28
Wagner is small, that is, it will be00:32:30
solidarized. This is only a small piece00:32:32
of the front that, in fact, did not affect anything whether00:32:34
it was there or not. Therefore, even now00:32:36
we see Everything continues, but at the same time there are some00:32:39
processes on last week They started00:32:41
with this incompetence and it was as if in the00:32:44
West they were even a little scared. Wow,00:32:46
someone could come to replace Putin and we do00:32:48
n’t know him, we understand what to expect and00:32:51
they decided that Putin is like the00:32:53
least evil and here it arises again00:32:55
the question How can we continue to undermine00:32:57
this Cornerstone,00:33:00
you know about the fact that it cannot be00:33:02
destroyed, I don’t agree The00:33:05
Soviet Union00:33:07
collapsed Yes It’s about controlled00:33:12
destruction, you know, you’ve probably seen00:33:14
a video of how knowledge is allowed in00:33:17
certain places, placed explosives00:33:19
that yes yes,00:33:24
with all its importance with of all its00:33:27
significance when certain conditions are created, the00:33:31
Russian Federation may fall apart,00:33:35
there is such a scenario, but as I said,00:33:41
there are a lot of scenarios, there are a00:33:44
lot of plans, now the world is like a00:33:47
car that is not driving on a road, but00:33:52
in the terrain,00:33:54
looking for a way from where to get there, how to get there00:33:57
What is the speed00:34:00
and where are we going we’ll come not How00:34:04
difficult it is to say00:34:06
who knows where00:34:09
and what concerns That’s exactly the process00:34:12
Prigozhin’s path00:34:17
[music] is00:34:20
very big00:34:23
And I absolutely did not share the joy of the00:34:29
Ukrainian society that they were happy00:34:32
that we’ll say Prigozhin will come to power00:34:36
rebellion00:34:42
Well, yes,00:34:48
it seems to me that here the angel is all- However, we were once00:34:51
again convinced that the Russian00:34:55
government within the country is not protected; all the00:34:59
troops today were just a statement from00:35:00
one of the British00:35:02
that 94 percent of the combat-ready army00:35:07
is located here on the territory of00:35:08
Ukraine, that is, the00:35:10
law enforcement agencies of the National Guard remain in Russia, I don’t00:35:13
know which ones -the Kadyrovites and everything else,00:35:14
but at the same time no one can protect Moscow. Well,00:35:18
can you imagine that your00:35:19
capital was like this, I know that Kiev00:35:23
will become instantly at any time now Well,00:35:25
not even counting the factor of just our00:35:27
civil society00:35:33
[music]00:35:43
for the entire time of power00:35:49
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, she is now in a00:35:52
self-vulnerable position because, yes, of00:35:55
course, the army is a big joint, it is00:35:58
in Ukraine, definitely,00:36:02
and after the00:36:07
Prigozhin mutiny,00:36:09
the Russian political00:36:13
whole. A crack has appeared00:36:17
and I don’t yet see00:36:20
that this crack will00:36:23
be concreted,00:36:25
so and not only if we take into account the army, I00:36:31
think that’s all directions, as it were, of the00:36:36
Russian state, they are very00:36:38
vulnerable, the situation is not difficult00:36:43
to predict,00:36:46
because it is likely that Prigozhin would00:36:49
not have taken Moscow, I think that after all there00:36:52
was a lot of things there, I think that it was a00:36:55
process controlled by someone Yes, but00:36:59
we all saw that he could give this to00:37:03
Moscow at least to Moscow00:37:05
to the body we could00:37:06
observe we will observe these are00:37:09
such percentages such processes that do not00:37:12
lend themselves to00:37:14
standard analytics standard00:37:16
procedure this can be judged by a person00:37:18
who is in the political kitchen of00:37:21
the Russian Federation in a more00:37:25
precise word00:37:28
Because these are not only security issues00:37:33
which you and I definitely haven’t00:37:35
touched on because it’s only now00:37:37
taking on new shapes, this is nuclear00:37:40
escalation. Only of course not in the literal00:37:42
sense. You’re really right that the00:37:43
nuclear potential of the Russian Federation00:37:45
will always frighten and stop and00:37:48
make the Western world think twice,00:37:49
but that’s what concerns of our country You00:37:52
have heard this terrible news about how the00:37:53
nuclear power plant is mined And the00:37:56
latest statement by the President of Ukraine00:37:57
Vladimir Zelensky that most likely the00:37:59
Russian occupation forces will be able to00:38:01
blow it up even remotely just00:38:03
by leaving Zaporozhye they will00:38:05
definitely We experienced the tragedy around the00:38:07
Kakhovka hydroelectric power station when the Russians00:38:10
blew it up and We probably no longer have any00:38:12
doubt that they are capable of any00:38:13
terrorist attack. But if you believe and rely00:38:16
on the words of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed00:38:18
Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zalozhny, he00:38:20
said in an interview for the Washington Post, well,00:38:21
look, we see, we understand all these00:38:23
dangers, but what can we do, we’ll go further,00:38:25
we won’t stop What do you00:38:27
think, there are two aspects00:38:30
to this: Can our enemies really do this, and00:38:34
secondly, what does this give besides a terrorist attack,00:38:36
besides dire consequences for the00:38:38
civilian population for our country00:38:40
as a whole,00:38:48
space for thought because00:38:51
firstly, I believe that00:38:55
under appropriate conditions it can00:38:58
change00:39:00
now is very bad bad time for00:39:02
forecasting because the situation00:39:05
has00:39:07
different dynamics as a rebound00:39:11
life has developed a situation I believe that the00:39:14
probability of tactical nuclear00:39:17
weapons or some kind of subversive00:39:19
activity00:39:20
is 10 percent this is a scenario00:39:26
but00:39:27
the situation can change00:39:32
Classic in the Russian Federation00:39:35
another person Even let's say without transfer of00:39:38
power to00:39:40
govern the war in Ukraine, a00:39:43
more radical person00:39:47
in this case in this case So it is00:39:49
possible that00:39:53
power plants, as far as I know,00:40:01
radioactive contamination of the area I00:40:05
hope it doesn’t come to that I hope it does00:40:08
n’t come to that But unlike the blowing up of the00:40:12
Kakhovka hydroelectric station which had a military00:40:15
meaning00:40:16
because they for a long time they00:40:19
stopped the possibility of a Ukrainian00:40:22
offensive on the00:40:24
opposite on the Eastern bank of the00:40:28
Dnieper00:40:30
Zaporozhye power plant Maybe this will00:40:34
not give an effect the00:40:36
fallout of radioactive fallout is very00:40:39
tied to the winds00:40:41
and if the region usually blows in the East,00:40:45
that is, they themselves can suffer from this quite well;00:40:48
one thing is the water that flows00:40:51
in Russian problems, another thing is00:40:53
such a thing that strongly depends on00:40:56
precipitation,00:40:59
their wind can.00:41:03
Therefore, I think that00:41:18
in the end I will ask again, comparing some00:41:21
experience that you have as a whole, the country of00:41:22
Azerbaijan, with what awaits Ukraine. I00:41:25
think that it’s no secret to anyone what we00:41:26
really want and this is our goal, the task you00:41:29
wrote into the Constitution is that we must00:41:32
join the family of European countries of the00:41:35
European Union and NATO next00:41:37
week there will be a NATO summit. We00:41:40
will talk about it a little later with our00:41:43
mutual friend, of whom we are very00:41:44
We respect Ramisam Yunus, he00:41:46
will explain all this to us from a political point of view, but we00:41:49
know that we are00:41:50
not promised a simplified quick entry system;00:41:54
moreover, they are offering us, or00:41:56
most likely will offer, some other00:41:58
alternative concept, the so-called00:42:00
Israeli scenario, cooperation,00:42:03
partnership of military equipment in00:42:06
satellite technologies, and so on.00:42:08
there, take everything, protect your00:42:10
territories, and here’s the question: the00:42:11
story with Israel is that00:42:14
they don’t want and can’t join NATO00:42:17
when they say they don’t want to because00:42:19
NATO will always interfere with them defending00:42:21
their territories. Now they have an00:42:22
anti-terrorist operation. Everything needs to be00:42:24
asked. you always need this consensus,00:42:27
something similar probably happened in00:42:29
Azerbaijan. That is, you didn’t have to00:42:31
ask anyone for permission to00:42:33
return yours, you had an00:42:35
ally partner who helped you, Turkey is a00:42:37
NATO country, just like a country that is00:42:39
part of NATO, that was enough for you00:42:41
besides the fact that you have been developing for a long time. So00:42:43
what would you say to Agile, if you were asked just00:42:46
as a non-interested party by00:42:47
NATO or the Israeli scenario,00:42:50
what would you give your preference to? You00:42:54
know.00:42:59
It will depend00:43:03
[music]00:43:05
but00:43:06
[music] let’s00:43:12
say in a year or two you decided00:43:16
your problems00:43:19
then00:43:30
I think that after00:43:34
you win that scenario, when the00:43:38
Russian Federation falls apart, I think00:43:40
that from here some kind of reformatting00:43:44
will be visible in the European Union.00:43:46
Let’s say I touch on the European Union without the00:43:51
Russian Federation, it will be00:43:54
possible, let’s say, the revival of00:44:04
countries that00:44:06
can create their own00:44:10
European00:44:11
here there are a lot of nuances, but the Israeli00:44:16
option, the Israeli option, this is the00:44:18
option when, let’s say, you took Crimea and00:44:22
entered into some kind of negotiation process,00:44:24
this is what you lived in 2014 for almost 900:44:28
years, this is how you live00:44:30
If you have the opportunity, of course This is the00:44:34
best option When did you wear what you00:44:38
were able to get out to your borders and after00:44:42
that Think about whether you need it or not,00:44:45
most likely you need it, but in what00:44:48
configuration as who00:44:51
and as for us, maybe we00:44:54
would love to maybe00:44:56
join NATO for some period of time, but a00:45:00
Muslim country is over This is most00:45:03
likely00:45:04
Christian club What is the European00:45:07
Union itself? Yes, it’s not customary to talk about this, but00:45:11
the situation is like this, but your situation is00:45:14
completely different. They are waiting for you, as if they want to00:45:18
dispel the various alliances of military blocs,00:45:21
so your situation is different.00:45:25
Although this gel is very strange, now00:45:27
I thought that Ukraine is Christian00:45:29
country If we talk about the00:45:30
dominant religion, but at the front,00:45:34
absolutely all Muslims are also this00:45:36
Volunteers are different and it’s just like a00:45:38
unification once on the side of good, then00:45:41
your religion is of course very important, but it00:45:44
rather unites you than00:45:46
separates you, this is something that would probably be00:45:47
missing in that including NATO, we should not measure it00:45:50
by religion, but by some beliefs, I am00:45:54
eternally grateful that you have, among00:45:56
other things, such beliefs that always00:45:58
support Ukraine, you want00:46:00
victory there. Thank you very much for this00:46:01
wonderful conversation. Thank you very much for00:46:03
despite your workload on your00:46:05
work day. Found time for us and00:46:07
talked Thank you very much we were always00:46:09
infinitely glad to see you good luck00:46:12
thank you very much TotalDescription:
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