Download "Can you outsmart the fallacy that fooled a generation of doctors? - Elizabeth Cox"

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false cause fallacy

false cause

fallacy

common fallacies

correlation

causation

correlation vs causation

skepticism

media literacy

childbed fever

inflammation

thought fallacies

thought exercise

critical thinking

fallacy demon

louis pasteur

education

animation

elizabeth cox

together

TED

TED-Ed

TED Ed

Teded

Ted Education

00:00:10

Oh the humanity!

00:00:13

Ah... humanity...

00:00:16

It’s a trainwreck, but I can’t look away.

00:00:20

It’s 1843, and a debate is raging among physicians

00:00:23

about one of the most common killers of women: childbed fever.

00:00:28

Childbed fever strikes within days of giving birth,

00:00:31

killing more than 70% of those infected— and nobody knows what causes it.

00:00:37

Obstetrician Charles Meigs has a theory.

00:00:41

Having observed abdominal inflammation

00:00:43

in patients who go on to develop the fever,

00:00:46

he claims this inflammation is the cause of childbed fever.

00:00:51

Much of the medical establishment supports his theory.

00:00:54

Oh, come on!

00:00:56

They really leave me no choice but to teach them some skepticism.

00:01:12

That’s better.

00:01:14

Now, Meigs, your argument is based on a fallacy— the false cause fallacy.

00:01:21

Correlation does not imply causation:

00:01:25

When two phenomena regularly occur together,

00:01:28

one does not necessarily cause the other.

00:01:33

So you say women who have inflammation also come down with childbed fever,

00:01:39

therefore the inflammation caused the fever.

00:01:43

But that’s not necessarily true.

00:01:46

Yes, yes, the inflammation comes first, then the fever,

00:01:51

so it seems like the inflammation causes the fever.

00:01:55

But by that logic, since babies usually grow hair before teeth,

00:02:00

hair growth must cause tooth growth.

00:02:03

And we all know that’s not true, right?

00:02:06

Actually, don’t answer that.

00:02:08

A couple of different things could be going on here.

00:02:11

First, it’s possible that fever and inflammation are correlated

00:02:16

purely by coincidence.

00:02:19

Or, there could be a causal relationship that’s the opposite of what you think—

00:02:25

the fever causes the inflammation,

00:02:28

rather than the inflammation causing the fever.

00:02:31

Or both could share a common underlying cause you haven’t thought of.

00:02:38

If I may, just what do you think causes inflammation? Nothing?

00:02:46

It just is? Really?

00:02:49

Humor me for a moment in discussing one of your colleague’s ideas—

00:02:54

Dr. Oliver Wendell Holmes.

00:02:56

I know, I know, you don’t like his theory—

00:03:00

you already wrote a scathing letter about it.

00:03:03

But let’s fill your students in, shall we?

00:03:06

Holmes noticed a pattern: when a patient dies of childbed fever,

00:03:12

a doctor performs an autopsy.

00:03:15

If the doctor then treats a new patient,

00:03:18

that patient often comes down with the fever.

00:03:22

Based on this correlation

00:03:24

between autopsies of fever victims and new fever patients,

00:03:29

he proposes a possible cause.

00:03:32

Since there’s no evidence that the autopsy causes the fever beyond this correlation,

00:03:38

he doesn’t jump to the conclusion that autopsy causes fever.

00:03:43

Instead, he suggests that doctors are infecting their patients

00:03:49

via an invisible contaminant on their hands and surgical instruments.

00:03:54

This idea outrages most doctors, who see themselves as infallible.

00:04:00

Like Meigs here, who refuses to consider the possibility

00:04:04

that he’s playing a role in his patients’ plight.

00:04:08

His flawed argument doesn’t leave any path forward for further investigation—

00:04:13

but Holmes’ does.

00:04:24

It’s 1847, and physician Ignaz Semmelweis

00:04:27

has reduced the number of childbed fever deaths

00:04:29

in a clinic from 12% to 1% by requiring all medical personnel

00:04:34

to disinfect their hands after autopsies and between patient examinations.

00:04:40

With this initiative, he has proven the contagious nature of childbed fever.

00:04:45

Ha!

00:04:50

It’s 1879, and Louis Pasteur has identified

00:04:53

the contaminant responsible for many cases of childbed fever:

00:04:58

Hemolytic streptococcus bacteria.

00:05:04

Hmm, my fries are cold.

00:05:07

Must be because my ice cream melted.

Description:

Dig into the false cause fallacy, which assumes that one event causes another, and learn how to distinguish between correlation and causation. -- It’s 1843, and a debate is raging about one of the most common killers of women: childbed fever— no one knows what causes it. One physician has observed patients with inflammation go on to develop childbed fever, and therefore believes the inflammation causes the fever. What's the problem with this argument? Elizabeth Cox explores the false cause fallacy and how to dissect claims with skepticism. Lesson by Elizabeth Cox, directed by TOGETHER. Animator's website: https://wearetogether.ca/ Sign up for our newsletter: https://ed.ted.com/newsletter Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/teded Follow us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Find us on Twitter: http://bit.ly/TEDEdTwitter Peep us on Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser View full lesson: https://ed.ted.com/lessons/can-you-outsmart-the-fallacy-that-fooled-a-generation-of-doctors-elizabeth-cox Thank you so much to our patrons for your support! Without you this video would not be possible! Tony, Michelle, Katie and Josh Pedretti, Vaibhav Mirjolkar, Thomas Bahrman, Allan Hayes, Aidan Forero, Uday Kishore, Mikhail Shkirev, Devesh Kumar, Sunny Patel, Anuj Tomar, Lowell Fleming, David Petrovič, Hoai Nam Tran, Stina Boberg, Alexandrina Danifeld, Kack-Kyun Kim, Travis Wehrman, haventfiguredout, Caitlin de Falco, Ken, zjweele13, Anna-Pitschna Kunz, Edla Paniguel, Elena Crescia, Thomas Mungavan, Alejandro Cachoua, Jaron Blackburn, Yoga Trapeze Wanderlust, Sandy Nasser, Venkat Venkatakrishnan, Nicolle Fieldsend-Roxborough, John Saveland, Jason Garcia, Robson Martinho, Martin Lau, Senjo Limbu, Joe Huang, SungGyeong Bae, Christian Kurch, Begum Tutuncu, David Matthew Ezroj, Sweetmilkcoco, Raphaël LAURENT, Joe Meyers, Farah Abdelwahab, Brian Richards, Divina Grace Dar Santos, Jessie McGuire, Abdullah Altuwaijri and Sarah Burns.

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