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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:05
We’re seeing an obvious campaign
for the 2024 presidential election.00:00:13
When we watch Putin reluctantly climb out of his
bunker and ride through occupied areas; when we listen00:00:19
to a leaked conversation between top Russian entrepreneurs;00:00:24
when we see the state being cautious about dragging
people to the frontlines, two things become crystal clear.00:00:32
First, the election really is a watershed.00:00:35
It may unleash the apocalypse that has been prophesied
since the war began: from the blocking of YouTube00:00:41
to forced mass mobilization and the closing of borders.00:00:45
After the election, the regime won’t need to protect the
civilian elites, and the secret police will be free to run wild00:00:50
in their search for enemies who’ve
snuck into the highest levels of government.00:00:54
This will create extensive opportunities for mass purges.00:00:58
Second, the regime doesn’t think the upcoming election is a
walk in the park. Things are obviously deteriorating rapidly,00:01:06
and it’s unclear what the regime will end up with in March 2024.00:01:11
By then, will the elites and the voters need
this waddling lame duck of a regime?00:01:19
It’s all the more surprising that, from the outset of the war,
Putin's actions have hit the very people that he counts on.00:01:28
His policies are hurting his own base with startling precision.
This isn’t a very obvious idea, but I’ll try to explain what I mean.00:01:38
A quick announcement before we begin. My book,00:01:41
The History of New Russia, is finally in stock
at Amazon and easily ships to any country.00:01:50
If you’re not in Russia and have long wanted to buy this
book, now is the time. Follow the link in the description.00:01:56
OPPONENTS AND LOYALISTS00:02:01
It might seem to readers of Russian non-mainstream
media that there’s nothing worse in Russia than being00:02:05
a critic of the regime.00:02:08
Hardly a day goes by without baffling news: some snitching
on their neighbors to the police, others slapped with fines00:02:14
for conversing loudly in a restaurant, criminal
charges for anti-war messages on price tags,00:02:19
toughening of laws, and lifelong sentences for high treason.00:02:22
But how many people has the hammer of wartime
censorship hit? There are less than 200 criminal cases.00:02:30
And not all who’ve been charged are
under arrest — like myself, for instance.00:02:33
Then there’s a few thousand administrative cases.00:02:36
Even if we throw in the celebrities prosecuted
in absentia, that’s still less than 5,000.00:02:47
That’s a lot. But only a handful received
prison sentences — the rest were just fined.00:02:55
On the other hand, how many people gave in to propaganda or
were tempted by the prospect of riches and suffered for it?00:03:00
Those who, for whatever reason, went to fight for Putin and
were either killed or maimed in this senseless and unjust war?00:03:09
At least 50,000 were killed and over 150,000 wounded.
Hundreds of thousands are in the war zone right now:00:03:19
wearing in tatters, sleeping in
waterlogged trenches, eating expired MREs.00:03:25
They’re the ones being used as cannon fodder.
It’s with their bodies that the generals cover up their failures.00:03:30
It’s the money for their clothing, food, and
ammo that lines the pockets of corrupt officials.00:03:36
We see a paradox here. The newsfeed makes it look like
Putin’s regime is on a rampage obliterating its opponents.00:03:44
But stats show that it’s the demographics that the regime
usually relies on that are bearing the brunt of this war.00:03:52
The regions that yielding record-high vote numbers
for Putin have suffered the heaviest military losses.00:03:59
These are the places purged of all opposition,
whose leaders unfailingly forge 90+% support for00:04:05
Putin and his United Russia party.00:04:08
For the centers of protest activity —
Moscow, St. Petersburg, or Ekaterinburg —00:04:12
the war wasn’t real when it started and still isn’t such.00:04:17
Sure, those who oppose Putin and his war
are having to painfully readjust their lifestyles.00:04:23
They’re forced to flee from mobilization,
delete social media accounts,00:04:27
live in discomfort and fear, or leave Russia altogether.00:04:32
But those who sincerely believed Putin and his propagandists’
tall tales, people from the country’s destitute outback,00:04:44
those who’ve no access to independent sources of information
— they’re taking the truly catastrophic toll of this war.00:04:54
True, Putin jails, fines, and drives his opponents
out of Russia. But he’s actually killing his voters.00:05:03
He cripples them physically and morally.
He leaves their families bereft. These aren’t outliers.00:05:11
Take the five-digit death toll and many more survivors
of the war inferno and add their family members.00:05:22
These are the millions of people whose
lives were irreparably changed by the war.00:05:27
These are the people receiving death notices.00:05:29
The ones who saw their healthy husband and father return
home a cripple dependent on care for the rest of his life.00:05:37
The ones who spent their meager savings
to buy warm clothes and body armor.00:05:42
The ones who suddenly found a stranger in place of their
loved one — traumatized, aggressive, deranged, desensitized00:05:49
to violence, and ready to use it.00:05:53
The ones who’ve heard first-hand accounts
from friends or relatives about what the war00:05:59
and the Russian army are really like.00:06:03
It might seem like there’s nothing more
dangerous expressing disloyalty to the state —00:06:09
taking to the streets with an anti-war sign or
posting about the Bucha massacre on social media.00:06:14
But what are the consequences?00:06:16
The long odds of being fined. There’s also a flimsy probability
of facing criminal charges and ending up behind the bars.00:06:30
If you express an anti-war sentiment, you might get
fined or face criminal charges (which is very unlikely).00:06:38
But what if you pledge extreme loyalty to the government?00:06:42
If you get on one of those buses that shuttle
away mobilized recruits or sign a military contract?00:06:49
You’ll be in for something far more dangerous.00:06:51
You’ll definitely end up in an environment that’s very
different from that of a prison cell — but immeasurably worse.00:06:59
Russian prisons have a terrible reputation.
And there’s a risk of being jailed for an anti-war stance.00:07:08
But the government cares about the life of the most downcast
inmate infinitely more than about that of a frontline soldier.00:07:19
And this isn’t the case with political
prisoners anyway: all political cases are public,00:07:24
handled by journalists and human rights advocates.00:07:27
A person jailed for speaking out against Putin
and his war can’t just disappear without a trace.00:07:38
Meanwhile, soldiers who bet their lives on
Putin can, and are doing so by the thousands.00:07:45
These are only the direct upshots. But the indirect effects of
the war also hit precisely those who Putin considers his voters.00:07:56
THE INDIRECT COSTS OF WAR00:08:01
International payment systems pulling out of Russia, significant
visa restrictions, difficulties buying software and foreign-brand00:08:10
cars due to sanctions — all of this is quite unpleasant.00:08:15
But we must keep in mind a simple fact: if you’re worried about
visa restrictions and getting a bank card that’ll work abroad,00:08:24
the odds are, you aren’t bothered
by the prices for basic groceries.00:08:28
It’s likely not a big deal to you that gas
and electricity bills have gone up.00:08:34
If you’re dismayed that a new Toyota can
now only be bought from resellers at twice the price,00:08:40
you’re probably not the one who assembled it. And
it wasn’t you who got laid off by the car factory last year.00:08:47
But how have the sanctions affected the
lives of retirees, government-funded employees,00:08:50
and those dependent on social security?00:08:53
The lives of a small and depressing town whose only
sawmill closed once Ikea exited the Russian market?00:08:59
Those who are forced to cut down on food expenses,
who’ll risk starvation if food prices even start creeping up?00:09:07
The hallmark of any crisis is that, while it affects everyone,
the poorest and the most vulnerable are hit the hardest.00:09:17
For some, a crisis means eating out
twice a week instead of daily.00:09:21
For others, it means giving up discounted
meat in favor of bland cereal.00:09:26
Some have to take longer and costlier
flights to get to Paris while others are forced to walk00:09:30
to work because they can’t afford a bus fare.00:09:35
Poorer people are more dependent on government
benefits, have less access to independent information,00:09:43
and are more susceptible to propaganda.
Such people are the social base for any autocracy.00:09:50
That’s not because they’re unenlightened riffraff as
the Kremlin spin doctors would like us to believe.00:09:55
It's because when you’re focused on physical survival,
dependent on government aid, and constantly on the lookout00:10:02
for hot deals and coupons, seeking
independent information isn’t a priority.00:10:08
Such a person will consume information
in the simplest way — by watching TV.00:10:16
It’s these people that the upcoming presidential
campaign is supposed to target: those with00:10:21
an extremely low income who depend
on the government in various ways.00:10:26
Over the past year, the lives of these
people have radically changed for the worse.00:10:29
Not because they might face criminal charges
for their views. Not because they had to move00:10:36
from their nice Moscow apartment to a shoddier one in Tbilisi.
But because they now can’t afford even the essentials.00:10:44
TARGETING YOUR OWN BASE00:10:49
I think I’ve made myself clear.00:10:51
In public, Putin hounds the opposition and outlaws
any opinion that veers away from the party line.00:10:59
But in fact, it’s his voters who bear the brutal costs of this war.00:11:05
The war is being waged at the expense of those who
voted for Putin before and “must” vote for him in 2024.00:11:13
Our viewers, who know how to stay away from the enlistment
offices, learn about the consequences of Putin’s policies00:11:20
from our videos, while viewers of state
propaganda experience these consequences directly —00:11:26
in their wallets and on death notices.00:11:29
And now the regime needs to approach these people
and tell them: vote for another 6 years of this mess.00:11:39
In five months, we’ve lost more people in the battle for
Bakhmut alone than the USSR did in 10 years in Afghanistan.00:11:46
We’ve littered your towns with graves.
We’ve made your life palpably poorer and worse.00:11:51
And we didn’t deliver what our propagandists
had promised since the beginning of the war:00:11:56
no victories, no capture of Kyiv in three days —
only retreats disguised as “goodwill gestures.”00:12:02
When speaking about war fatigue, which
is a well-described social phenomenon,00:12:08
we’re not talking about the people
who only see war in the headlines.00:12:14
We’re talking mainly about those who
bear the tangible day-to-day costs of war.00:12:19
Who are losing their jobs or simply getting
poorer, who are surrounded by rising death tolls.00:12:25
Those who know about the real scale of the
disaster not through Pentagon leaks or news stories,00:12:31
but through friends and relatives.00:12:34
Putin’s regime is thus creating
a rather spurious social paradox.00:12:40
If you want to send people to the front — which constantly
needs reinforcements — you need them to believe you.00:12:47
You need them to buy into stories about how
they’ll be guarding warehouses in the deep rear.00:12:54
But if you kill those who believe you,
you won’t get them to vote for you.00:13:00
Getting manpower to the frontlines is incompatible
with getting loyal voters to the polling stations.00:13:06
After all, the more critical a person is of you, the less
they believe your propaganda and the more likely00:13:12
they are to relocate to Yerevan instead of going to Bakhmut.00:13:15
They’ll survive — along with the people they taught
to rely on independent sources of information.00:13:23
This is like inverse natural selection: the more
loyal the voter, the lesser their chance to vote00:13:29
and the more screwed-up their life.00:13:32
And vice versa: the protest-minded voters have more survival
tools and the government doesn’t bother them as much,00:13:40
preferring to keep out of their way
to avoid annoying them any further.00:13:43
These are the not-too-obvious prerequisites with
which Putin’s regime will enter the election year —00:13:53
having ruined everyone’s lives,
but more those of his friends than of his foes.00:13:59
The foes went to Tbilisi; the friends went to their graves.00:14:04
The regime tends to intimidate people of opposing views:
“we’ll mobilize everyone, raise taxes, block YouTube,00:14:12
throw you in jail for life, bring back the death penalty.00:14:14
You’re such horrible traitors, we’ll show you the worst of hell.”00:14:19
But when push comes to shove, we rarely
see them press criminal charges.00:14:24
And even when they do, we’re more or less prepared. This is
just how the regime treats those whose votes it isn’t looking for.00:14:34
The regime doesn’t threaten the
people whose votes it counts on.00:14:40
It simply packs their husbands, fathers, and brothers into buses
and either doesn’t return them at all, or returns completely00:14:46
different people — always with a mangled psyche
and sometimes with a mangled body, too.00:14:54
This pre-election state of affairs — the continuous
targeting of the regime’s own support base —00:15:00
isn’t good news for us because it
means the death of our fellow citizens.00:15:04
But it’s definitely bad news for those who
want to keep Putin in power for another 6 years.00:15:13
See you tomorrow!Description:
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