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00:00:10
A super typhoon, volcanic eruption,
violent earthquake,00:00:14
and endless heatwave.00:00:16
The year 2015 was punctuated by
exceptional natural disasters.00:00:38
Assessment of these phenomena
terrifying, 20,000 victims00:00:42
and almost $40 billion in damage.00:00:47
2015 appears to be a year
record on several points.00:00:50
Tropical storms
of unprecedented power,00:00:53
episodes of drought
particularly long,00:00:56
and the highest temperatures
measured heights, for 130 years.00:01:00
Should we see the consequences?
of global warming,00:01:03
or other phenomena more
punctual like El Nino?00:01:11
How can science
try to predict these cataclysms?00:01:15
Can the populations
prepare yourself, and anticipate certain00:01:18
of these natural events?00:01:27
From the Andes
to the Himalayan plateau,00:01:29
passing through the frozen deserts of Iceland
and the paradise islands of Vanuatu,00:01:33
scientists decipher these
anger of earth and sky.00:01:38
Gathering exclusively images
professionals caught at the heart of the action,00:01:43
this film presents disasters
major natural events of 2015.00:01:47
From the most harmless to the most dramatic.00:02:06
Symbolic and emblematic of
natural disasters of the year 2015,00:02:09
Typhoon "Dujuan",
hits Taiwan in September.00:02:13
500 mm of rain, the equivalent
4 months of precipitation,00:02:17
fell in just 24 hours.00:02:20
The island of Taiwan is at the heart
of the Pacific cyclone zone,00:02:24
the authorities are used to launching
alerts to the population,00:02:27
to evacuate sensitive areas,
prevent people from leaving their homes.00:02:34
For Fabrice Chauvin, specialist
cyclones at Météo France,00:02:37
the island of Taiwan is in the watchtower of
monitoring of the scientific community.00:02:42
- Taiwan, which is roughly
located in this area,00:02:45
is in an area that is
prone to tropical cyclones.00:02:48
You should know that the west of the North Pacific,00:02:52
this is the area most
prone to tropical cyclones.00:02:55
On all the cyclones,
it must represent,00:02:58
something like
60% of annual cyclones.00:03:02
The impact of the cyclone was
particularly visible on the coasts.00:03:06
The coastline has been devastated
by exceptional waves,00:03:09
due to the conjunction of 2 phenomena:00:03:11
the typhoon and the proximity
of the Earth and the Moon,00:03:14
causing storm surges.00:03:16
- It's a rise in sea level
due to depression linked to cyclones,00:03:21
depression linked to cyclones,
she tends, as there is less00:03:25
pressure on the sea, its balance,
he finds it a little higher,00:03:29
compared to its normal, a
sea level rise.00:03:37
In an emergency, the roadblocks
open their floodgates,00:03:39
to compensate for the influx
sudden rainwater.00:03:42
Their abundance is explained
especially by the temperatures00:03:45
abnormally warm surface waters.00:03:47
They stimulated the number and
the intensity of North Pacific cyclones.00:03:52
29 in total in 2015, with winds
greater than 178 kilometers per hour.00:03:57
This film traces a sample of
these extreme climatic events.00:04:18
Another island, another threat.00:04:21
Here a desert of stones and ice.00:04:24
One of the most hostile and hostile areas
most mysterious places on the planet, Iceland.00:04:32
In this storybook setting
and Nordic legends,00:04:35
the largest glacier in Europe
gives strange signs of activity.00:04:43
- The activity started with a surge
seismic throughout the North-West part00:04:48
of the Vatnajokull glacier.00:04:51
Nobody knew yet what was happening,00:04:53
but we felt that something
something big was brewing.00:04:58
Holger Sigmarson is Icelandic, but he
has been working in France for over 20 years,00:05:03
and studies the origin of magma
thanks to its nuclear radio compounds.00:05:08
Iceland is a highly
active in volcanism.00:05:12
The island is located just
above a hot spot,00:05:14
that is to say a rise of magma
from the depths of the earth,00:05:18
to the surface of the earth's crust.00:05:26
Iceland is also located
at the boundary of 2 terrestrial plates00:05:29
moving away from each other,
by allowing magma to rise00:05:33
from the mantle, and creating
an oceanic ridge.00:05:36
With such a situation, the least
warning signs of a rash,00:05:41
quickly attract attention
of the scientific community.00:05:44
However, under this giant glacier is installed
a little-known volcano and yet00:05:48
one of the largest in Iceland, Bárdarbunga.00:05:54
- It is a recognized volcano for Icelanders.00:05:57
Elsewhere, he is not very well known
because he hasn't been very active,00:06:00
since many decades,
or even centuries.00:06:05
The last small eruption
produced in 1903, but before then,00:06:10
the last big eruption had
took place in the 15th century, in 1480.00:06:16
The specificity of the Bárdarbunga volcano,
is that its main crater00:06:20
is completely hidden under the snow.00:06:22
It is therefore impossible to see directly
spring anything from the volcano.00:06:27
But Icelandic scientists have
managed to map the underground00:06:31
to discover the physiognomy
hidden from Bárdarbunga.00:06:34
A vast and deep crater
collapsed, or caldera,00:06:37
whose edges rise to 400 meters
above the crater floor.00:06:42
And over 800 meters of ice.00:06:45
Immense devastating potential.00:06:51
- If a rash occurs in
the Bárdarbunga crater itself,00:06:56
it would melt the ice,
with 800 meters of thickness,00:07:00
this would generate a catastrophic flood,
which would flow towards the north and towards the south.00:07:09
Which is potentially more dangerous,
it is the presence of hydroelectric plants00:07:13
on the rivers that come from the glacier.00:07:16
And all these villages to the south,
this to my sea.00:07:24
Fortunately, the Bárdarbunga is
located in a desert area,00:07:28
and access roads were cut
very early, except for scientists.00:07:33
The nearest residents are used to it
to the anger of the earth in Iceland,00:07:37
and prepared to live in
autonomy in the event of a hard blow.00:07:42
- We are not afraid of a possible eruption,00:07:45
we could live independently
here for a while.00:07:50
We live in a country in formation, we are
accustomed to these geological manifestations.00:07:56
These kinds of things can happen
in 10 years or tomorrow, that's how it is.00:08:01
On this relatively flat terrain,
these are the potential floods00:08:05
which would pose the most problems.
Water could spread widely00:08:09
at very high speed, and cause
a lot of damage to infrastructure.00:08:14
- We are on route 1.00:08:17
In Iceland, it connects the side
north of the country to the south side.00:08:24
If we lose this bridge, we have to take a detour
of 1400 kilometers, instead of 30 kilometers.00:08:32
So we're going to do everything
we can to save this bridge.00:08:39
We have to wait and see,
I hope there won't be any floods,00:08:44
but we never know.00:08:49
Fortunately, after a few days of waiting,00:08:52
the eruption under the glacier
much feared, does not happen.00:08:55
The magma seems to evacuate laterally,00:08:57
makes his way to
the surface outside the glacier.00:09:02
The earth's crust cracks then opens
north of the immense white cap.00:09:08
The magma can then burst into the air
free in a spectacular way.00:09:35
- The activity of 3 craters is
concentrated in one part00:09:40
to form a single large crater
about half a kilometer long,00:09:45
with 3 very active fountains
and a large lake of lava or magma00:09:48
in the crater, which was pouring
then like a river,00:09:52
and trained outside,
a vast lava field.00:09:59
At this stage of the eruption, scientists
are only moderately reassured.00:10:04
The risks of glacial breakups
and giant floods seem to recede,00:10:08
However, no one can predict
the following of the events.00:10:12
The lava continues to flow
from the volcanic fissure,00:10:15
at the speed of 300 cubic meters per second.00:10:18
A vast flow that spreads across the plain
towards the north, south and west.00:10:27
A new phenomenon appears little
little by little under the eye of scientists.00:10:31
The glacier seems to be sinking
above the volcano.00:10:34
No melting is observed elsewhere.00:10:37
This phenomenon could
be the key that explains00:10:39
that the worst scenario
eruption was avoided.00:10:43
- Some say that the sinking of
blocks above the magma chamber,00:10:48
pushed the magma from the
room in a lateral way.00:10:53
Others say that the
magma gushing through the crack,00:10:56
reduced the pressure
in the magma chamber,00:10:59
below the central volcano,
and caused its collapse.00:11:03
But that's kind of the problem
chicken and egg.00:11:08
In February, the eruption finally stopped.00:11:11
The pressure in the volcano
seems to have evacuated,00:11:14
and the magma is no longer pushed
on the surface of the earth.00:11:17
In total, the Bárdarbunga has
spat out 85 kilometers² of lava,00:11:22
that is to say, enough to cover completely
the city of Paris under 5 meters of lava.00:11:26
A big rash,00:11:27
proportionally much lower
to that of a more distant past.00:11:35
- 1.5 cubic kilometers is quite big,
but in the past the same volcano spewed00:11:41
25 cubic kilometers 8400 years ago, more
close to the period of deglaciation.00:11:47
The more we move forward in time,
the more we have the impression that a volume00:11:50
more and less magma,
is produced during eruptions.00:11:56
A mysterious link unites deglaciations
and volcanic and seismic activities.00:12:02
Robert Muir-Woods, specialist
earth sciences,00:12:04
looked at this correlation.00:12:08
- There was an ice cap
giant across all of Northern Europe,00:12:11
which was 3 kilometers thick.
These large masses appeared00:12:16
and caused the sinking
of the earth's crust.00:12:20
When the layer of ice has disappeared,
the situation has been reversed.00:12:24
The area that supported the most weight is
rise and the surrounding areas have descended.00:12:29
And this process has been going on since
thousands of years.00:12:32
The Earth is still in progress
to get over it today.00:12:36
The scars of these deformities
are sometimes still visible.00:12:39
The earth rose from
several tens of meters,00:12:42
around the old caps.00:12:46
Fortunately, this phenomenon
post-glacial rebound,00:12:49
no longer has the devastating effects of the past.00:12:52
- The big period of glaciations
occurred 15,000 years ago.00:12:56
If you had asked me
the question 15,000 years ago,00:12:59
I think we would be
to witness large earthquakes,00:13:02
large volcanic eruptions,00:13:04
we could say that it is because
of the melting of the ice cap00:13:08
that we are witnessing all these disasters.
Today, the 10 major ice caps00:13:12
glaciers that existed ago
20,000 years on our planet have disappeared.00:13:16
There is only one left in Greenland.00:13:19
Even if this one started
to melt very quickly,00:13:21
what if we started to have a lot
earthquakes in the vicinity of Greenland,00:13:25
it wouldn't have a very big impact.00:13:28
The eruptions of Bárdarbunga, would be
less prolific in magmas than in the past.00:13:34
However, it is impossible to derive
more conclusions for the future.00:13:38
- The link is that there is a lot of magma
which was created at the end of the glaciation,00:13:42
and there is less and less magma generated,
because the earth's crust is still00:13:46
recovering, after the enormous
glaciers that existed 10,000 years ago.00:13:51
No one could
say that the eruptions00:13:54
will be smaller in the future
because no one knows.00:13:57
These are just hypotheses.00:14:00
Despite these very lava fountains
spectacular, the eruption of Bárdarbunga,00:14:04
was a natural event,
without damage or casualties.00:14:09
To continue in this
series of minor disasters,00:14:12
another eruption that could have
however present many risks,00:14:15
because of its neighborhood.00:14:19
We regain a few degrees by taking the
direction of the south of the Japanese archipelago,00:14:23
where the Sakurajima volcano,
shows signs of awakening.00:14:31
Explosion, plume of smoke and ash.00:14:35
This volcano, installed on a
peninsula inhabited by 4000 people,00:14:38
is one of the most active in Japan, with
500 to 1000 small eruptions each year.00:15:16
The problem is that the nuclear power plant
from Sendai, located 50 kilometers away,00:15:20
has just been rebooted. 4 years
after the Fukushima tragedy,00:15:24
which had caused the cessation of all
production units in Japan.00:15:29
The eruption alert level
was therefore raised to 4,00:15:32
so that the inhabitants
are ready to evacuate.00:15:39
After several weeks of tension,
the Japanese volcano finally seems00:15:43
become more peaceful again, its crater
main observed gradually00:15:47
with a lava plug.00:15:51
There neither victim nor damage
to be deplored, at least for the moment.00:15:56
There is no doubt that Japanese vulcanologists
will keep an eye on this Sakurajima volcano00:16:00
and its nuclear power plant
In the coming years.00:16:07
A disaster that occurred in April in Chile
gives the measure of what awaits them.00:16:15
6 p.m., the day ends
in the Great Lakes tourist area,00:16:19
50 kilometers from the town of Puerto Montt.00:16:30
In this peaceful and lively region,
Underground noises are suddenly heard.00:16:39
A mysterious rumbling runs through the
foothills of the Andes mountain range.00:16:49
No further notice,
no other warning signal.00:16:53
Just 15 minutes after the
first warning rumbles,00:16:56
a dormant volcano
for 40 years, Calbuco,00:16:59
belches a very dense plume of smoke.00:17:09
- There are very few signs
precursors for Calbuco.00:17:13
There is a Chilean station
nearby observation,00:17:16
and they didn't notice
only one hour before the eruption,00:17:19
a signal that could be interpreted
like a rise of magma.00:17:25
The entire Andes Mountains are
very active in terms of volcanism.00:17:29
It is a subduction zone or a
oceanic plate of the earth's crust,00:17:33
sinks under the plate
from South America.00:17:38
- When the oceanic plate
sinks into the subduction zone,00:17:42
it transforms and all the water
is pressed towards the depths,00:17:47
which reduces the melting point
and causes the rise of magma.00:17:52
This column of smoke comes from
gases under pressure,00:17:55
trapped in the magma
inside the volcano reservoir.00:17:59
Pushed towards the exit with
violence, it depressurizes,00:18:02
and gains volume by training
very small lava particles.00:18:17
This column is exceptionally high,
it reaches the limit between the troposphere,00:18:21
and the stratosphere
20 kilometers above sea level.00:18:27
The greatest risk,
it's just the column of ashes00:18:30
ends up collapsing on the city
of Puerto Montt and its 220,000 inhabitants.00:18:36
- There is a thrust which rises and which
is diluted on contact with the atmosphere.00:18:42
It forms a kind of mushroom at the top
and when she can no longer hold herself together,00:18:48
it collapses in a fiery cloud
which descends the valleys and the plains,00:18:53
when transporting very hot materials
which can be very devastating.00:18:58
Fortunately, the wind
from the Pacific rises,00:19:01
and moves the plume away in the direction
from the east, uninhabited mountains.00:19:07
It spreads as far as Argentina, which
is obliged to close its airspace.00:19:12
Ashes are a threat
for aircraft engines.00:19:17
- Very small particles of less than 10
micrometers are very bad to breathe.00:19:22
The edges are sharp and may tear
the lungs and the digestive system.00:19:33
Puerto Montt is temporarily saved.
For safety, a 20 kilometer zone00:19:38
around Calbuco and still evacuate.00:19:51
After a period of calm at dusk
of the night, new explosion.00:20:00
The eruption enters a new
phase of electrostatic discharges.00:20:05
In other words, lightning strikes
unleash above the Calbuco crater.00:20:12
- Afterwards, there were the flashes of fire,
it was very low, an impressive cloud.00:20:20
We saw him in full
night, it was very close.00:20:25
A cloud of sand arrived, very thick.00:20:28
We thought it was
hail falling.00:20:40
The rash lasts 3 days and 3 nights
without causing any human casualties.00:20:45
On the other hand, the desolation
is total in the landscape.00:20:49
The volcano vomited 210 million
cubic meters of ash on forests,00:20:53
rivers, plains and
the surrounding homes.00:21:09
- The next day, I was one of the
1ᵉʳˢ to arrive in the area,00:21:13
to see what it looked like and
I found the restaurant in this state.00:21:17
He is completely on the ground.00:21:19
100% of the restaurant is lost.00:21:25
- I was born and raised here,00:21:27
I would like to continue
work in these places.00:21:31
These are accidents of nature,
It can happen here or elsewhere.00:21:46
- Our garage collapsed,00:21:48
and the roof of a house a little
old one has fractured and twisted.00:21:53
We tried to get fuel
and food for the dogs,00:21:57
because we didn't take anything with us,
we couldn't go home00:22:02
that the next day, to see the
damage that the house had suffered.00:22:08
These are not the projections of
lava which caused the most problems,00:22:12
because they fell into a small
perimeter of 5 kilometers around the volcano.00:22:16
The real danger is the tons of ashes
accumulated on the roofs of houses,00:22:20
which threaten to break up at any moment.
6000 people were evacuated,00:22:25
to prevent them from
are trapped.00:22:28
- There is approximately 1 meter
of ashes that fell.00:22:32
This is what we are doing
to clear out at this time.00:22:37
This area is also touristy,
This will cause economic problems.00:22:43
Regarding farms,
it is estimated that the ashes,00:22:47
created quite a few problems
important with breeding.00:22:56
- Volcanic gases can
be very rich in fluorine,00:23:00
a substance that sticks
to ash particles.00:23:04
If animals ingest a lot,
this will attack and dissolve00:23:08
their teeth and bones.00:23:15
- The main one remains the fall of the roofs
houses under the weight of ashes,00:23:20
and pollution of spring water.00:23:36
Not a drop of water
drinking in the surrounding area.00:23:39
Ash and sulfur have
contaminated all the rivers.00:23:42
The layer of volcanic debris is sometimes
so thick that you can no longer see the water.00:23:55
- We have a 4 day window until
Wednesday, after which rain is forecast.00:24:01
We need to hurry up and clean up
and to secure broken houses.00:24:06
The rain is not to be taken
light in this area of Chile.00:24:10
The condensation-laden clouds above
of the South Pacific, are blocked by the Andes,00:24:14
and can degenerate into violent thunderstorms,
in mixed mud and ash flows.00:24:21
After several months of hindsight,
vulcanologists succeed00:24:25
however to moderate the magnitude
of the Calbuco eruption.00:24:30
- In a few years, we will
will remind you of a small rash.00:24:34
It was important for those who
live near the volcano, of course,00:24:38
but the estimated magma volume was around
0.1 cubic kilometers or barely more.00:24:46
Chilean volcano eruption
did not cause any human casualties,00:24:49
but caused 600 million
dollars in damage.00:24:56
What was avoided in Chile
occurred in Indonesia.00:25:03
After 400 years of sleep, the volcano
Sinabung woke up 5 years ago.00:25:08
Since then, he has gone through episodes
eruptive, regular and impressive.00:25:25
The latest one has
started in June.00:25:29
Its characteristic shape is a lava
very viscous which flows little,00:25:33
but generates impressive
pyroclastic flows.00:25:43
It's about these thick clouds
ashes and lava particles,00:25:46
which rise then collapse beneath their
weight, sliding down the slopes of the volcano.00:25:54
11,000 people are evacuated and displaced.00:25:57
A catastrophe for the farmers
who no longer have access to crops,00:26:00
and their resources for several months.00:26:04
One person died in
going into the prohibited area,00:26:07
while the volcano seemed calm.00:26:11
Pyroclastic flows
are unpredictable,00:26:13
and can extend over
4 kilometers around the crater,00:26:17
this time causing 145 million
dollars in agricultural damage.00:26:21
We temporarily leave the anger of the
earth to be interested in the anger of heaven,00:26:26
which were among the most devastating this
year, in terms of victims and damage.00:26:33
It is not necessarily
the most impressive event,00:26:36
but he is one of those who
cost the most in 2015.00:26:40
The enormous snowfalls
Northeastern United States and Canada,00:26:43
caused a total of 3
billion dollars in losses.00:26:47
Only one victim is to be deplored
in an unfortunate sledding accident.00:26:54
Paralyzed traffic, activity
frozen economy, damaged roofs00:26:59
and broken leg while slipping
on patches of ice.00:27:02
Insurance companies paid more
2 and a half billion dollars00:27:05
to cover damages caused by
snowstorms, for weeks.00:27:23
In New York or the Boston area, more
3 meters of snow fell in total.00:27:29
Immersing the cities and their inhabitants,
in a white and opaque screed.00:27:36
Less poetic and more frightening.00:27:40
This year 2015, the hurricane season,00:27:43
was particularly
frantic in the Pacific.00:27:53
The main reason :00:27:54
The return of El Nino, a climatic phenomenon,
which occurs on average every 3 to 7 years.00:28:14
One of the main subjects of study for
long-term forecasters,00:28:18
like Jacques Richon who works on the
weather forecast for the following quarter for Météo France.00:28:23
- This is a temperature anomaly
ocean surface in the Pacific.00:28:30
Usually this is
which we see in this diagram,00:28:34
the prevailing winds on the
Pacific are trade winds,00:28:38
that push surface water
warmest towards the west,00:28:42
then the El Nino situation where we see
that the areas in red have shifted00:28:48
towards the center and east of the Pacific,
the hottest temperatures,00:28:53
around 26 to 30 degrees are found
now much further east.00:28:57
The counterpart on the atmospheric side is
above these warmest waters,00:29:01
there are also storms
more violent, convection,00:29:05
the strongest vertical movements
and the strongest precipitation.00:29:09
Not all El Ninos are created equal.00:29:11
This year, a phenomenon
particularly strong is announced.00:29:14
- We left to have a strong El Nino among
the strongest of the last 50 years,00:29:22
We don't know yet if it's going to be the
strongest record, but in any case,00:29:27
we have El Nino which is
really strong this year.00:29:29
- An El Nino we will say classic,
will not exceed 1.5 degrees,00:29:34
that of 1998 arrived at 2.3-2.5 degrees,
depending on the region we take,00:29:41
today, we are at 2 degrees, knowing
that we have not yet reached the maximum.00:29:45
Result a hurricane season
exceptional over the Pacific.00:29:50
Hurricanes, cyclones or typhoons,
whatever name we give them,00:29:54
depending on the area
where they occur,00:29:56
these swirling storms
broke several records.00:29:59
- In tropical storms.00:30:02
As soon as the wind exceeds this
threshold of 120 kilometers h,00:30:05
we pass them into the cyclone category,
between 120 and 60 kilometers h,00:30:10
It's a tropical storm, again, in
underneath, it's a tropical depression.00:30:14
So, in general, we take care of,
in anticipation of the phenomenon.00:30:17
As soon as he reaches the stage
tropical depression,00:30:20
we are starting to be vigilant about the phenomenon,00:30:23
and when he reaches the threshold
tropical storms,00:30:26
that is to say 60 kilometers h,
we give it a name,00:30:30
which will then allow
follow it in a simpler way.00:30:36
El Nino manifests itself as
an extraordinary warming00:30:39
surface waters in the eastern Pacific.00:30:42
A decisive ingredient in
the formation of one of the events00:30:45
the most resounding of this
year 2015: Hurricane Patricia.00:30:53
The area is not customary for
hurricanes, but at the beginning of autumn,00:30:57
the effects of El Nino are starting to be strong.00:30:59
The waters are 2 degrees warmer
compared to seasonal norms,00:31:03
according to Eric Guyliardi, climatologist.00:31:05
- This is an area where there will be some
cyclones, but much less intense,00:31:09
above all, they will not develop
of the same magnitude as that of Patricia.00:31:13
Patricia is directly linked to
we have El Nino at the moment.00:31:17
The fact that the waters are
hot in the East and remain warm,00:31:20
this is the source of the hurricane's energy.
So he was able to develop.00:31:24
So springs, seeds of hurricanes,
there are all the time all the time.00:31:28
The fact that it develops in real
hurricanes of the magnitude of Patricia or others,00:31:34
are linked to the fact that
ocean conditions00:31:37
atmospheric, are
conducive to development.00:31:40
In these particular conditions
a remarkable phenomenon is forming.00:31:44
Hurricane Patricia intensifies
at exceptional speed.00:31:48
The storm passes in just 24 hours
tropical to category 5 cyclone.00:31:54
- Theoretically, they can
expand to maximum amplitude,00:31:58
which is the one that Patricia reached.
In general for most hurricanes,00:32:02
there are phenomena that will
come to limit this amplification,00:32:06
waters that will cool,
the arrival of a continent,00:32:10
an atmospheric circulation which
will destabilize the hurricane at altitude.00:32:13
When we look at the conditions
specific to this hurricane,00:32:16
he really developed,
there was nothing he was stopping00:32:19
to reach its extreme theoretical intensity.00:32:26
It's a hurricane full of energy
which is heading towards Central America.00:32:30
Patricia records a new record,00:32:32
that of wind speeds in the north
of the Pacific, with 265 kilometers h.00:32:49
Patricia's violence claimed victims,
12 people die00:32:53
in landslides
caused by torrential rains,00:32:56
or because of uprooted trees.
Fortunately, the path of the hurricane00:33:01
avoid the biggest centers
urban areas on the Mexican coast.00:33:04
The authorities have planned measures,
to accommodate nearly 260,000 people.00:33:09
In the end, only 50,000 were evacuated.00:33:12
Hurricane Patricia sinks
inside the ground,00:33:14
towards a mountain range,
quickly losing its power.00:33:19
The total cost of the damage that caused it
is estimated at $5 billion,00:33:24
i.e. 20 times more than the damage
attributed to another cyclone,00:33:28
which occurred in Southeast Asia.00:33:30
Economic evaluation of disasters
is subject to strong variations,00:33:35
depending on the country where they occur.00:33:39
- The problem with this assessment is
than the most costly disasters,00:33:43
occur in the richest countries.00:33:48
This therefore distorts the assessment of damages
depending on the most developed countries.00:33:54
On a global scale, the same hurricane
will cost more in the United States,00:33:58
than in China for example, simply because
that there is much more wealth,00:34:03
on the passage of the storm.00:34:07
Illustration with a devastating typhoon.00:34:13
In the Philippines, which was
the deadliest of the year.00:34:19
The winds reached an intensity
very strong of 210 kilometers per hour.00:34:24
The vast rice-growing plains
were submerged00:34:27
by flooding due to
rain and gigantic waves.00:34:32
47 people lost
life in the Philippines.00:34:34
This is 4 times more than in Mexico,
because of Hurricane Patricia.00:34:39
However, the economic damage
caused in this developing country,00:34:43
were 20 times lower than in America
of the North, or $231 million.00:34:48
To try to understand the reasons
of the intensity of this typhoon,00:34:52
we must turn again to El Nino.00:34:54
But the phenomenon normally concerns
the waters of the Eastern Pacific and not the West.00:35:02
- Warm waters move east,
but they remain warm in the west.00:35:08
That is to say, they will remain
sufficiently high temperatures,00:35:12
so that hurricanes can develop.00:35:14
It is an extension of the hurricane zone
which we witness during El Nino,00:35:18
than a shift in the area.00:35:20
Because the area in which
these hurricanes can be born and extend,00:35:24
so there may be more.00:35:26
El Nino is a phenomenon that
increases in power and heat,00:35:29
throughout 2015.
He cannot therefore be held responsible00:35:32
of all natural disasters
atmospherics of this year.00:35:36
One of the most severe cyclones
WFP highlights in Vanuatu,00:35:39
for example occurred before
that the enfant terrible of the climate,00:35:42
begins to show its first effects.00:36:05
A hundred tropical islands
surrounded by coral reef,00:36:08
and covered with lush vegetation.00:36:11
The Vanuatu archipelago returns
regularly in the country rankings,00:36:14
where people are happiest.00:36:19
However, in March 2015, Vanuatu
was hit by a natural disaster,00:36:24
whose magnitude did not have
been equaled in human memory.00:36:28
March 6, 1 barometric anomaly
is detected a little further north,00:36:32
at the latitude of the Fiji Islands.00:36:34
A simple drop in pressure for the moment,
but the weather services are on alert.00:36:39
- Before the advent of the satellite era,00:36:42
we could miss cyclones,
if it were cyclones that were born,00:36:46
in the middle of the ocean and which had no
boat which could observe this phenomenon,00:36:50
we could miss cyclones.
Today, it is almost impossible.00:36:54
Then, by injecting the data
observations in the models,00:36:59
we can predict its trajectory,
its life cycle, its intensity,00:37:03
in general, we're pretty good.00:37:07
In 3 days, the pressure
atmospheric continues to decline.00:37:12
The water in the Pacific Ocean is warm,00:37:14
more than 26 degrees on
least 50 meters deep.00:37:18
A surface temperature anomaly,
which cannot be attributed to El Nino,00:37:22
since in March, the effects of
phenomenon are not yet perceptible.00:37:28
- We're not going to talk about El Nino, but
impact of global warming.00:37:32
Warmer air contains more moisture,00:37:35
when it rains a lot more during
a hurricane, it rains a lot more.00:37:39
- If you have 26 degrees, but at the same
time you have the top of the atmosphere,00:37:43
which is also hot,
no cyclonic development.00:37:46
It has to be hot
at the bottom and cold at the top,00:37:49
this is the condition for making
the unstable and favorable atmosphere,00:37:52
to the development of cyclones.00:37:55
What could have just been an incident of
barometer degenerates into tropical depression.00:38:00
A growing ceiling
cloudy, rain and wind.00:38:03
Depression is organized and is
reclassified as a cyclone called PAM.00:38:09
He continues his way towards the south,
heading straight for the archipelago.00:38:25
Winds up to 250 kilometers
per hour, sweep over the islands.00:38:30
All the trees are shaken,
torn away by the violence of the phenomenon.00:38:44
Most of the houses are built in
natural materials, palm leaves,00:38:48
wooden planks. They are swept away
like straws.00:38:53
Furniture, utensils and tools are
carried away in the course of the cyclone.00:39:11
- What happened there,
it is an extremely strong hurricane.00:39:15
Hurricanes of this intensity,
we don't know many00:39:18
since they happen by definition infrequently.00:39:20
PAM is a major cyclone as there is
other major cyclones each year.00:39:27
Once again, the particularity of PAM,
it is to have affected inhabited areas,00:39:32
at maximum intensity. These are
inhabited areas with little relief00:39:39
and very vulnerable to storm surges,
to rain and flood phenomena.00:39:48
For 36 hours, PAM remains blocked at
the maximum intensity of category 5.00:39:53
Then, after a night and a day
total anguish for the residents,00:39:57
Pam continues on her way and walks away
further south in the Pacific Ocean,00:40:00
gradually losing its intensity.00:40:03
- A cyclone is a marine phenomenon,
from the moment it hits the ground,00:40:06
and his life expectancy is
a few hours, or even 24 hours.00:40:11
He loses all his energy, in general,
it collapses quite quickly.00:40:18
Often, when they pass over small
islands, they weaken a little,00:40:23
they return to the ocean and
they regenerate in humidity,00:40:26
and they can become again
very strong cyclones.00:40:32
80% of buildings are destroyed.00:40:35
Only permanent constructions
were relatively spared.00:40:38
Everything else is on the ground.00:40:47
- Inside, we listened
the wind was blowing hard,00:40:50
and suddenly we saw the roof of
this house which was beginning to disappear.00:40:57
The wind had twisted the roof sheets,
and dropped them on the road there.00:41:04
Then we saw the walls of this
house collapse suddenly.00:41:12
Emergency services are organized in the
first hours with the means at hand,00:41:16
and willing residents like Peter
who works in a social center.00:41:24
- There were 4 or 5 of us on the 3rd day now,
we are around a hundred volunteers,00:41:29
around thirty machines and 6 boats
who toured the surrounding islands,00:41:33
meeting isolated communities to
bring them medicine, help,00:41:37
and possibly treatment. There was
teams with chainsaws,00:41:41
other teams with
generators on trucks,00:41:44
to recharge the batteries of
residents and medical teams,00:41:48
who toured the islands.00:41:50
- We brought nearly 250,000 liters
of water and 5 tons of food.00:41:54
We made kits with hammers
and nails that we left in the communities,00:41:58
to help people recover their
construction materials and rebuilding.00:42:05
The helicopters then take over.00:42:08
Seen from the sky, we understand
easily inflicted damage.00:42:11
The houses no longer have roofs,00:42:13
the tropical trees that guard
their leaves all year round,00:42:16
are completely stripped.
Everything was torn away by the cyclone.00:42:22
- There was movement on the ground,
People were waving white flags00:42:25
to try to attract my
watch out for me to settle down.00:42:28
Several groups had set the fire
in rooms to draw an "H"00:42:32
like Help or Helicopter.00:42:35
When the authorities manage to
re-establish contact with all the islands,00:42:38
a first assessment can be carried out:
16 dead and 132,000 people affected00:42:44
by this violent cyclone.
Tana hospital nurses00:42:47
are still in shock, even though it was
prepared for several days for the storm.00:42:56
- There is an alert system
which worked well and quickly,00:43:01
we received messages
alert on our phones,00:43:04
and most of
we had prepared ourselves.00:43:08
Despite all this, we did not expect
not to a cyclone of such magnitude.00:43:15
Do you see the metal in its windows?
It is very solid.00:43:20
It's galvanized steel, but with
all vibrations due to the wind,00:43:24
windows and shutters
were torn off.00:43:29
What is exceptional in Vanuatu,
this is the speed with which00:43:33
help is being organized,
resourceful and supportive.00:43:36
Residents begin to rebuild
without waiting for international aid.00:43:40
Who says light house, says fragile house,
but also a quick house to rebuild.00:43:45
From the first day, the constructions
are recovering on the islands.00:43:49
- Now we are rebuilding our houses.00:43:53
I prepared food and asked
to my cousins to come and help me,00:43:57
to make concrete blocks for
to be able to rebuild our homes.00:44:01
We make the concrete blocks ourselves!00:44:05
But the reconstruction very fast
must not hide the consequences00:44:09
serious in the long term.
$500 million in damage00:44:13
and health problems
which will soon emerge.00:44:16
Captain Benjamin, responsible
of the first aid, is concerned.00:44:21
- Today we are going to an island
right next to the main island,00:44:26
in a village with around 160 people
who have not seen a doctor,00:44:30
since the disaster. We see
especially infected wounds,00:44:34
and gastrointestinal infections.
We try to treat and care for them00:44:39
in the villages, for their
avoid going to the hospital.00:44:43
Local hospitals are
already completely overwhelmed,00:44:45
we try to treat as much as possible
people at home,00:44:49
to avoid overcrowding hospitals,00:44:52
and allow them to continue
to turn efficiently.00:44:58
Vanuatu has an interest
to rebuild quickly.00:45:01
They are not at the heart of the
the most cyclonic zone in the Pacific,00:45:04
but such episodes could be
to be feared according to researchers,00:45:08
due to global warming.00:45:12
- In the future, the waters of
surface will be warmer,00:45:16
and the intensity of storms
is directly linked,00:45:18
at the water temperature
that they cross.00:45:22
In predictions about behavior
hurricanes and typhoons in the future,00:45:26
there are many studies that do not
do not all agree, moreover,00:45:30
they suggest that the storms could
be fewer, but more intense.00:45:36
And if global warming
combined with a very strong El Nino,00:45:40
the effects of both
would they be multiplied?00:45:43
This is a scenario on which science
does not yet have enough perspective,00:45:47
but who is the subject
lots of research.00:45:50
- Climate change is amplifying, there is no
not just for El Nino, for the whole00:45:54
of the planet, amplifies the phenomena
extremes, which exist naturally.00:46:02
This is the conjunction
global warming,00:46:05
which gets warmer every year
a little more, and El Nino.00:46:08
We have seen that El Nino affects a
quarter of the planet's surface,00:46:12
so when there is a degree
of El Nino warming,00:46:15
there is 0.1 degree more at the global level.00:46:18
To complete this overview
climate disruption,00:46:21
must be added to
high-profile phenomena00:46:23
like El Nino or global warming,
other meteorological explanations,00:46:28
more mysterious, less known, but of which
the impact this year was significant.00:46:44
This is one of the natural disasters
the longest and most expensive in 2015.00:46:50
Head to the southwest coast
United States, California,00:46:53
where an episode of drought
has lasted for several years.00:46:57
This summer, it seems on the verge of degenerating.00:47:04
The vegetation is extremely dry.00:47:07
Water reserves are at their lowest,
the sun shines relentlessly.00:47:17
Highly flammable ingredients00:47:19
to ignite the great
coniferous and deciduous forests.00:47:25
Every year, the Southwestern States of
United States are victims of these fires,00:47:29
but in 2015 they take
unparalleled proportions.00:47:41
The lights go off simultaneously
in the 4 corners of California,00:47:45
but also in the state of Washington,
in Oregon, Utah and Montana.00:47:51
Up to 30 homes burn
at the same time, in the heart of summer,00:47:55
mobilizing 11,000 firefighters across the country.00:48:03
- Drought has been caused since
last winter by a frozen weather system,00:48:07
who prevented the storms
to arrive in California.00:48:11
The rains are almost
entirely in winter in California,00:48:14
and in recent years, models
weather prevented storms from arriving.00:48:22
It is a rare meteorological phenomenon
known who is responsible in particular,00:48:26
drought on
the Californian coasts.00:48:29
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation.00:48:32
This is abnormal cooling
surface waters of the Pacific,00:48:36
that repel the waters
warm to the north and south.00:48:41
- El Nino is a returning phenomenon
episodically every 2 to 7 years,00:48:46
we are dealing with phenomena that oscillate
on the scale of ten years,00:48:52
and which bring an anomaly
positive temperature,00:48:54
along the coasts of North America.00:48:56
In this diagram, we see the anomalies
temperature in the northern Pacific.00:49:01
We have a whole area of anomalies,
including very strong anomalies00:49:05
along the coast of California
and North America,00:49:08
it is a phenomenon which oscillates on
much longer scales,00:49:12
on the scale of several dozen
years, which started at the beginning of 2014.00:49:19
If we must attribute the drought to a
large-scale climatic phenomenon,00:49:23
it is rather to this phenomenon, which comes
now combine with El Nino00:49:28
which develops.00:49:29
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
takes place over a cycle of approximately 20 to 30 years,00:49:34
and its interactions with El Nino
are still very poorly known.00:49:39
Scientists can see
that the effects of these climatic mechanisms00:49:43
on a large scale combine
sometimes like this year.00:49:46
- This is a good illustration to
all places on the planet,00:49:50
there are these variations to
different frequencies,00:49:54
the diurnal cycle, notably day-night,00:49:57
we'll see the weather for a few days,
we are going to have the seasons.00:50:01
We also now have, from a
year to year, El Nino etc.00:50:05
In every point of the Earth,
the variations we have,00:50:08
are linked to all these effects that we
now understands better and better.00:50:12
We have global warming and the map
background, which means that California,00:50:16
it is a Mediterranean region, a
place where it already doesn't rain much.00:50:21
What the projections show
in the future, if we do nothing,00:50:25
these regions, even less water.
On top of that are superimposed,00:50:29
this ten-year variation and in this
moment the waters are rather warm,00:50:32
off the coast of California
and in the North Pacific,00:50:35
who have been there for several years,
which reinforces this effect,00:50:39
now El Nino who will come to
otherwise, bring precipitation.00:50:43
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation will
therefore continue over several years,00:50:48
but its repercussions are
disappear in favor of that of El Nino,00:50:52
which is becoming more and more important.00:50:55
- This winter, on the contrary, we plan to
lots of precipitation in California,00:50:59
and this could put
an end to this drought.00:51:03
It is unknown whether a single wet winter
will be enough to restore water levels,00:51:07
but all predictions agree
on a very rainy winter in California.00:51:11
The results of these fires are catastrophic.
It's the most terrible dry season,00:51:16
for 10 years in the United States.00:51:18
31,600 kilometers² burned in different
States in the south and west of the country.00:51:24
The equivalent of the surface of the
Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region,00:51:28
gone up in smoke in a few months.00:51:32
6 people died
in the flames, including 2 firefighters.00:51:35
17,000 inhabitants had to be displaced,
to prevent them from being trapped00:51:39
in fires. Economic losses
are estimated at $3 billion.00:51:44
A very heavy price for this rich state.00:51:47
This is therefore the 2nd cataclysm
the most serious of this year 2015,00:51:53
just before the one that happened in Nepal.00:52:08
Landlocked between India and China, Nepal.00:52:13
A small mountainous country,
as big as a quarter of France,00:52:17
with however the equivalent of the
half of the French population,00:52:21
of which 1 million inhabitants live
in the capital: Kathmandu.00:52:29
Nepal is one of the 10 countries
the poorest in the world.00:52:32
The population is settled
near watercourses,00:52:35
and massively deforests for wood
heating and growing rice.00:52:42
In mountainous regions,
no tree holds back anymore then,00:52:45
the stone blocks above the villages
which hum to the rhythm of small businesses.00:53:01
According to the Hindu religion
dominant, the Nepalese00:53:04
celebrate in temples
millennium, the rhythm of the world.00:53:11
A dance composed of periods of creation,
conservation and destruction.00:53:16
An endless dance.00:53:19
And science does not contradict them.
Geologists like Ian Klinger,00:53:23
trace the turbulent origins of Nepal.00:53:26
Plate tectonics in this
region, that means that India,00:53:30
rises at a rate of 4 cm per year.
The plates of the earth's crust,00:53:34
they are a little stuck,
they are difficult to deform.00:53:39
This convergence of the 2 plates induces,00:53:42
of plate deformation
superior to the Eurasian plate,00:53:46
we make mountain ranges,
we compress the earth's crust00:53:49
and we make reliefs.00:53:51
The 2 plates, they rub,
they are stuck,00:53:54
while it grows behind,
here, it gets stuck, it accumulates,00:53:57
and at one point the crust protrudes
the resistance threshold and let go.00:54:01
This produces a tremor
earth that allows release,00:54:05
of the accumulated tension
on the plates, forces,00:54:08
and that produces the earthquake.00:54:10
The last giant earthquake
in Nepal dates back to 1934:00:54:14
8.3 on the Richter scale.00:54:18
In 2014, Ian Klinger and his team
publish a study according to which00:54:22
the earthquake of 1934 would be a harbinger
of another imminent earthquake on this fault.00:54:29
History will prove them right.00:54:50
On April 25, 2015,00:54:52
an earthquake of magnitude
7.9 on the Richter scale,00:54:56
hits Nepal over more than 200 kilometers,
on either side of the capital, Kathmandu.00:55:02
- I put energy into this system.
An earthquake of magnitude 7 or 8,00:55:07
will release about as much,
so today, where did we release00:55:11
where have we not liberated? What
are the areas that need to free,00:55:15
which areas have less need?00:55:18
In doing this work, we had
actually pointed out the area that ruptured00:55:23
as being one of the areas
who were ready to break up.00:55:28
Jean-louis Mugnier is also a geologist.00:55:31
He went to Nepal
just after the earthquake,00:55:33
to position GPS receivers,00:55:35
in order to measure possible
new ground movements.00:55:39
- Certain areas of the Himalayas, such as
the area just north of Kathmandu,00:55:43
rose almost a meter,
in about a minute,00:55:48
since the earthquake
a duration of the order of a minute.00:55:52
In other areas, paradoxically,
the Himalayas have descended a little,00:55:56
for example, the most
high peaks of the Himalayas,00:55:59
momentarily went down a little.00:56:05
The earthquake directly causes
the death of more than 8,000 people.00:56:12
If this earthquake was
conceivable by geologists,00:56:16
However, it is impossible to predict
accurately its arrival.00:56:28
- The way we proceeded is
to watch historic earthquakes,00:56:34
trying to understand the size of these
historic earthquakes in view of the destruction.00:56:39
Catastrophic earthquakes,
of magnitude 8 or more,00:56:42
have return times which are probably
several hundred years,00:56:47
not far from 700 or 800 years,
for what we understand.00:56:52
On top of that you come
add earthquakes that collapse,00:56:55
in a partial way and who,
come back over this cycle.00:57:05
Above the epicenter,
the stone villages00:57:07
are completely razed by violence
of the shock, which killed around a hundred inhabitants.00:57:12
The survivors are reduced to wandering.00:57:17
- My name is Kenji Gorung,
and I lost everything.00:57:21
My house and even my school.00:57:28
- When the earth shook,
I was preparing for the full moon party.00:57:33
I was heating up, like now,
rice wine with myrrh,00:57:36
which we call here the Rahkshi.00:57:41
Around me, in the village,
everything burned, everything collapsed.00:57:46
We were afraid of the aftershocks, so,
we took refuge in the fields.00:57:52
After the earthquake,
we stayed 3 days in the fields00:57:56
with animals, without eating.00:58:02
Fortunately, friends from other villages
arrived with clothes and food.00:58:08
Today we have nothing left,
but we must continue to live.00:58:16
Now we live up there,
in the pastures,00:58:20
in a camp of houses built
hastily with tarpaulins.00:58:27
These are only temporary shelters, but
I don’t know where we will live tomorrow.00:58:38
- The 2015 earthquake was
a disaster in Nepal.00:58:42
At the same time, what happened
a Saturday, a day of good weather00:58:47
at the end of the morning, while all
the rural populations were in the fields,00:58:52
that the children were not in class
but rather playing outside.00:58:56
This earthquake would have occurred during the night
or one day when the children were at school,00:59:03
they would have been a lot
more catastrophic.00:59:08
In the days that followed,
more than a hundred small replicas00:59:12
shook Nepal, including a strong
earthquake: 7.3 on the Richter scale.00:59:46
Another threat now lurks
the villages: the arrival of the monsoon.01:00:09
The rain falls continuously.01:00:12
Water is inexorably attracted
towards the center of the earth.01:00:16
As long as it flows on the surface,
it only gullies the soil01:00:19
and turns the roads into a quagmire.01:00:25
When the rainwater
rush into the breaches01:00:28
opened by the earthquake,01:00:30
they cause significant
landslides.01:00:33
Across Nepal,
landslide,01:00:35
it's a whole section
mountain that collapses.01:00:58
- Just before the monsoon,
you shook the basin,01:01:02
you have a certain number of slopes
which are potentially destabilized,01:01:06
and when you load
the system with water,01:01:09
that means you
make the material heavier,01:01:11
you open the cracks
because the water is in it,01:01:14
cause landslides
which would probably have taken place,01:01:18
but would have been spread out over time.01:01:20
- During the monsoon, like the blade of water which
falls on the Himalayas is several meters,01:01:26
there is an enormous mass of water which
is deposited on the Himalayan chain,01:01:30
and she creates little ones
earthquakes that can be instrumented,01:01:34
but which do not have at all the same
magnitude than the great Himalayan earthquakes.01:01:40
This village was literally
swept away by a landslide,01:01:43
and drowned in a mudslide.
24 deaths added to the victims01:01:47
of the earthquake including,
the number was increased to 9000.01:01:52
- That was my house.
The rains washed everything away.01:01:57
And at 1 a.m. it was raining
very hard and the ground slipped.01:02:04
Then the landslide
led to the collapse of 13 houses.01:02:12
A group of 25 people tried to help
someone whose house was buried,01:02:19
But they couldn't get in.01:02:27
No respite possible for the villagers.01:02:29
The monsoon period is the season
the most prolific for agriculture,01:02:33
provided that the land does not collapse
not, taking away animals and crops.01:02:56
In Naval, what were the
damage caused in Kathmandu,01:03:00
the overcrowded capital of Nepal?01:03:03
1 million inhabitants
installed in a bowl,01:03:06
on clay deposits
of a prehistoric lake.01:03:09
The amplitude of seismic waves increases,01:03:11
crossing the interface
hard rocks, clay soils.01:03:15
Traditional brick houses or
stone did not resist the tremors.01:03:19
Only recent homes
in reinforced concrete are still standing,01:03:23
as long as the reinforcements
connect load-bearing walls and floors.01:03:29
Otherwise,
the lower floors which carry01:03:32
the entire weight of the building, collapse.01:03:34
- If you go to the field
in Nepal, I went there just after,01:03:39
not all the houses were on the ground,
but most were very damaged,01:03:45
and so were going to collapse,
in any case, were no longer usable.01:03:48
They don't collapse
on the day of the earthquake,01:03:51
but they are cracked, fractured.01:03:54
They are waiting for a little something
one more thing to collapse.01:04:00
In total, the earthquake caused
10 billion dollars of destruction,01:04:04
or half of the country's GDP.
An exorbitant cost for Nepal.01:04:13
To search for survivors in these
rubble, rescuers risk their lives.01:04:18
They recreate access in the floors
which threaten to collapse at any moment.01:04:24
By intervening in the days that follow
the earthquake, rescuers save lives01:04:29
hundreds of victims. For them,
the tremor remains a trauma.01:04:36
- It is extremely difficult to
tell this earthquake in words.01:04:40
I was outside when it happened.01:04:42
And the first tremor came
from the west, towards the east.01:04:47
My gate was shaken by at least
1 meter to the east, then to the west.01:04:52
My wife, my children and my mother
were inside the house.01:04:56
I tried to get in, the door was shaking
so much so that I couldn't open it.01:05:04
The street outside is paved with small
roof tiles. There was a roar,01:05:09
as if a monstrous serpent
was moving under my feet.01:05:13
I think it was one of the moments
the scariest of my life.01:05:16
I thought I was dead.01:05:24
According to Hindu philosophy,
earthquakes embody this 3rd and terrible step,01:05:29
of world dance:
Construction, conservation, destruction.01:05:36
Among all natural cataclysms, the
earthquake is the most complicated to predict.01:05:41
We know that it is inevitable, but
nothing allows us to anticipate it today.01:05:48
- For volcanism, we know,
that there are certain warning signs01:05:52
that we are able to measure,
for example small earthquakes01:05:55
which occur when the magma is
going up to the room.01:05:59
Today, for earthquakes, we
does not know any warning signs.01:06:03
The only certainty is the measurements
carried out in the field by the team01:06:06
by Jean-Louis Mugnier, reveal that 1 part
of the force accumulated between the 2 plates,01:06:10
was not released.01:06:13
- An earthquake like the one this year,
he didn't give everything, we're already sure,01:06:17
because our studies show
that he slipped on a part01:06:24
between the north of the range up to Kathmandu,
and between Kathmandu and the Plain,01:06:31
the overlap remained blocked.01:06:34
A 2nd earthquake could therefore occur,01:06:36
with potential consequences
even more catastrophic.01:06:40
- If we imagine that my hand represents
the sinking Indian plate,01:06:45
here, we have the trace of contact on the surface,
that's India, that's what's underneath,01:06:51
the earthquake which ruptured in 2015,
This is a pretty deep section already.01:06:56
What remains to be broken today,
at least for this part of the front,01:06:59
this is the part that comes from the place
which broke all the way to the surface.01:07:04
And that’s another 100 kilometers.01:07:07
We might expect to have
another major earthquake,01:07:11
with very destructive consequences.01:07:14
Between a few months and a few years.
No one can predict it.01:07:18
But the looks of the community
scientists remain focused on Nepal,01:07:21
in anticipation of this announced response.01:07:39
Despite this terrifying compilation
of wrath of heaven and earth,01:07:43
the results of this year 2015 are-
it is particularly edifying01:07:46
in terms of natural disasters?01:07:50
Not necessarily.
In any case on the economic level,01:07:53
according to Robert Muy-Wood who models the
risks for insurance companies.01:08:02
- We can measure the total cost
planet of natural disasters,01:08:06
by estimating losses.
It's probably around01:08:10
of a hundred billion euros
all together or in this order of ideas.01:08:18
Natural disasters have
indeed an economic impact,01:08:22
That's just for an average year.
And I don't know yet about this year,01:08:26
but I think we will be
below this average.01:08:31
In places like Taiwan for example,
there is a lot of confidence,01:08:36
and there were losses this year,
but there is very little insurance in Nepal,01:08:41
because it is a poor country.
Overall, this year has been very calm01:08:46
in terms of insurance risks.01:08:48
Same story from the side
volcano specialists.01:08:51
At the time of taking stock, despite
some spectacular episodes,01:08:54
2015 did not make the headlines.01:08:59
- It was a fairly quiet year.01:09:02
There was Calbuco and Bárdarbunga,
which has finished its eruption.01:09:07
It gave the scientists some time
to analyze all the accumulated data.01:09:12
It's a very good year when
not much happens.01:09:17
Finally, for cyclones, the balance sheet
of this year 2015 is more mixed01:09:21
depending on geographical areas.
At the global level, the number of cyclones01:09:25
tropical is quite stable,
with around 80 systems per year.01:09:30
On the other hand, on the Atlantic, the year
2015 was particularly calm.01:09:34
If we refer to the alphabetical order
used to name cyclones,01:09:38
which appear one after the other.01:09:41
- When there is a Nino, with anomalies
warm temperatures in the eastern Pacific,01:09:46
in general, cyclonic activity
over the Atlantic is weakened.01:09:49
For example, the year 2005
which was a record year,01:09:53
we went as far as Z, once arrived at Z,
we attack the letters of the alphabet...01:09:57
alpha, beta, gamma, delta, epsilon.
I think we went as far as,01:10:01
31 phenomena in the year 2005,
which is an absolute record.01:10:07
Since we average we have around ten
in the Atlantic of phenomena.01:10:14
Today, we are at J and in 2005,
we attacked the letters of the Greek alphabet.01:10:19
This apparent calm should not put you to sleep
the vigilance of scientists.01:10:23
Indeed, El Nino is far away
for having said his last word.01:10:26
It is around Christmas that the phenomenon,
nicknamed El Nino like the baby Jesus,01:10:30
gives its full measure.01:10:32
- It's normal for the moment,
we did not have any anomalies,01:10:36
very marked at the global climate level.01:10:39
The Nino is in the growth phase,
and we will reach the maximum01:10:44
around Christmas.
The beginning of 2015,01:10:48
we had a very slight anomaly
temperature over the Pacific Ocean,01:10:53
the growth phase,
it's only now.01:10:56
And the future consequences of El Nino
would not be limited to the Pacific alone.01:11:01
This meteorological mechanism is
one of the most powerful engines,01:11:04
of global climate change.01:11:06
- It's not at all as localized
that it could appear there when seen from Europe.01:11:10
it is that at the level of the tropics,
we already have half the surface01:11:13
of the globe which lies between
30 degrees north and 30 degrees south.01:11:17
In addition, the Pacific Ocean is really
a monster at ocean level on the planet,01:11:25
since we have 17,000 kilometers
from the coasts of South America,01:11:29
to the Philippines on the other side.01:11:41
Torrential rains, drought.01:11:44
Real disruptions could affect
our planet in the months to come,01:11:48
sometimes thousands of kilometers from
area where the climate anomaly began.01:11:56
- There will be huge floods on
the coast of Peru and Bolivia for example,01:12:01
while a drought will rage
in the north east of Brazil,01:12:04
or another in Australia.01:12:08
The correlation of these events
is clearly due to El Nino.01:12:13
There are many phenomena
which are linked to it,01:12:16
and we can expect many
others in the coming months.01:12:20
The latest El Nino Records,
occurred in 97-98.01:12:24
With 2.7 degrees compared to normal.01:12:28
The damage he caused
were estimated at $33 billion.01:12:32
At the end of 2015, El Nino was already close
the 3 degree mark,01:12:36
which allows climatologists to glimpse,
upcoming weather trends.01:12:41
- 2015 and 2016, great certainty
are going to be record years of heat.01:12:46
On the other hand, 2017 will be
cold since in general,01:12:50
after El Nino, there is the line.
Who has a cooling of the Pacific,01:12:55
which is a bit like the pendulum swinging back.
On the other hand, on heatwaves in France,01:13:00
there we are almost certain that without
reduce ongoing global warming,01:13:06
we are heading towards more heatwaves.01:13:08
Today we have 2 to 3 days
heatwaves per year in France,01:13:12
we will reach 20 to 30 days of heatwave
per year, and we have enough confidence in that,01:13:16
at the level of storms and
their impact of precipitation,01:13:19
Today, research is not
not sufficiently advanced01:13:22
to be able to say it with certainty.01:13:25
This climate scenario is
still however modifiable,01:13:28
provided that you take significant
political decisions, to modify01:13:31
the level of gas emissions
greenhouse and limit warming.01:13:40
Despite a large number
natural disasters,01:13:43
2015 was not as dramatic
than one might believe.01:13:49
Certain unpredictable events,
like the earthquake in Nepal,01:13:52
seriously marked the year.01:13:57
Others, easier to monitor,
like volcanism,01:14:00
have pretty much remained under control.01:14:10
On the other hand, at the meteorological level,
all conditions were met01:14:14
to make it an explosive year.01:14:18
El Nino Records, global warming
and decadal oscillations of the Pacific,01:14:22
combined to make
climb the thermometer,01:14:25
and disrupt rains and drought.01:14:44
Be careful, these phenomena
have not said their last word,01:14:47
and 2016 could well start with a bang.Description:
보스니아의 기록적인 홍수, 미국의 극지방 폭풍, 호주의 전례 없는 산불, 마다가스카르의 치명적인 태풍, 아이슬란드에서 200년 동안 휴화산이 깨어나는 등의 일이 우리에게 일어났습니다. 내일 지구에 무엇이 닥칠지 예측할 수는 없지만, 우리는 확신합니다. 매년 우리가 예상하고, 이해하고, 예방하기 위해 노력하는 자연재해가 종종 헛되이 발생한다는 것입니다. 이 영화의 이미지는 액션의 중심인 지상에서 일어나는 종말론적인 순간을 보여줍니다. 4K 카메라, 컴퓨터 생성 이미지, 과학자와의 인터뷰를 통해 재난 상황 속에서도 소리와 이미지에 실감나게 몰입할 수 있습니다. 감독: 사샤 볼레, 재클린 파머, 베르트랑 로이어
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