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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:02
strategy analyst economic00:00:03
commentary on important events in the world and00:00:05
in Russia immediately subscribe to the channel and00:00:07
turn on the bell so as not to miss00:00:08
future episodes ask your questions in00:00:11
the comments, if possible we will00:00:12
answer them studio economists00:00:14
entrepreneur Dmitry Potapenko I am00:00:16
economist presenter Evgeniy Romanenko00:00:18
Dmitry Greetings, good afternoon, while00:00:22
official Russian statistics00:00:23
report record low00:00:25
unemployment, 4.6 million Russians are00:00:29
hidden unemployed, that is, they work00:00:31
part-time, are in downtime00:00:33
due to the fault of the employer, or are on00:00:36
leave without pay,00:00:37
this follows from Rosstat data, this is a00:00:40
record for how for at least the last 8 years, the00:00:43
level of hidden unemployment of almost 13% is00:00:46
more than three times higher than the official00:00:48
three and nine tenths percent for January00:00:51
October of the twenty-second year, the army of00:00:53
hidden unemployed increased by00:00:55
730,000 people, record levels of00:00:58
hidden unemployment in cars, more than 3500:01:01
percent of the staff, 10 percent of the00:01:03
employees were sent to idle00:01:04
enterprise forestry industry in 1800:01:07
percent00:01:10
Food manufacturers, chemical plants and00:01:12
pharmaceutical enterprises were sent on leave without pay; more than 2000:01:15
employees were on leave without pay at00:01:17
metallurgical furniture00:01:19
factories and in companies producing00:01:21
electrical appliances. The decrease in the level of00:01:23
official unemployment against the backdrop of a00:01:25
record number of hidden unemployed00:01:27
is also explained by the deterioration demographics00:01:30
in nine months of 22 years the country00:01:32
lost another half a million people as a00:01:34
result of natural decline, up to 100:01:36
million more became emigrants Dmitry what are the00:01:40
main conclusions we should draw from these00:01:42
interesting labor market statistics00:01:45
but the Key question These are, of course, two00:01:49
components, not only the quantity but also00:01:51
the quality of specialists Evgeniy Absolutely00:01:54
correctly mentioned that the departure of specialists00:01:58
is just an infrastructural deterioration and00:02:03
I can honestly say since00:02:07
today I had just one of seven00:02:09
comments on the subject, as it seemed to me00:02:12
enough. Because when it comes to00:02:16
what the authorities say, Let's bring back00:02:19
the IT specialists with snowy mortgages, I would like to00:02:23
say IT specialists not wooden in their pose Do00:02:26
you really think they are00:02:29
morons? First you threaten00:02:31
to take00:02:32
them away; declare them agents; then you threaten them with00:02:37
increased taxes; then you express them with00:02:40
deprivation of citizenship;00:02:52
and therefore, here is the approach to00:02:56
human capital, including00:02:59
these figures, colossal unemployment is00:03:01
not the limit. What is00:03:03
unemployment, including in the previously most00:03:07
depressed regions and in the00:03:10
most sparsely populated regions and00:03:12
regions, and moreover, a stratum that is00:03:16
associated with extremely skilled00:03:18
labor It’s very difficult for these people to even move to00:03:21
a metropolis due to the fact00:03:24
that there is no work for them, that now there is00:03:27
still a very important00:03:29
fundamental gap happening when00:03:32
people who00:03:34
belong to simple00:03:36
unskilled labor become00:03:38
less in demand, the cost of labor rises precisely for00:03:45
those who have universal skills,00:03:47
namely in restructuring and00:03:50
reformatting business business00:03:53
systems as such because the new00:03:56
challenges that the authorities have00:04:00
essentially thrown up over the last year have00:04:02
completely changed the picture of the world. Therefore,00:04:06
this is this puzzle of human00:04:09
capital and, moreover, public rhetoric00:04:14
with the rise of a00:04:16
gopnic, I would say, political00:04:19
economic culture in the authorities authorities,00:04:22
both executive and legislative,00:04:25
do not give any reason to see that00:04:30
technological breakthroughs and the development of00:04:33
civil society will occur00:04:36
in an upward direction. Rather, this is the same00:04:39
stepwise degradation as the00:04:41
technological degradation that I00:04:43
often say. In our programs, the00:04:46
Russian economy in 22 experienced the00:04:49
strongest year in 10 years of growth in the cash00:04:52
money supply, this follows from the data of00:04:54
the Central Bank, the volume of cash in circulation increased00:04:57
by two and three tenths of a trillion rubles to00:05:00
16.4 trillion against 14.1 trillion at the00:05:04
beginning of 22, the military invasion of00:05:07
Ukraine by Russia caused a record outflow of private00:05:09
capital from Russia, including including in the00:05:11
closest neighboring countries, transfers of00:05:13
individuals from Russia to Kazakhstan00:05:15
Georgia Uzbekistan Armenia in the twenty-00:05:17
second year increased by 300-500 percent00:05:21
and set a maximum at which the00:05:23
statistics of these countries have never seen;00:05:25
in total,00:05:27
Russian citizens00:05:30
transferred almost 40 billion00:05:34
dollars On December 1, 22, they kept00:05:37
81 and 70 billion dollars in foreign accounts,00:05:40
twice as much as before February 24,00:05:43
22, we can only guess how00:05:45
these figures would change if we00:05:48
added cryptocurrencies, the00:05:50
use of which by the population Russia is00:05:51
consistently among the top ten countries world, but00:05:54
we will never know the real data about this, the00:05:56
complete anonymity of cross-border00:05:58
independence of ownership and00:06:00
transactions in cryptocurrencies from any00:06:02
banking systems Dmitry, we always00:06:04
emphasize that the economy is the growth of the00:06:07
well-being of the population due to the growth in00:06:09
the production of goods and services and not the00:06:11
production of00:06:13
fiat money, which is nothing ensured because00:06:16
any amount of money, according to00:06:17
economic theory, will equally well00:06:19
serve the exchange of goods and services, everything will00:06:22
simply be equalized by prices. Well, an increase in the00:06:23
amount of money in circulation00:06:25
only leads to inflation and00:06:28
redistribution of real goods to the first00:06:30
recipients of freshly printed00:06:32
drawn money from their last, the so-00:06:35
called law of consillion In00:06:36
economic theory, at the same time, these are the kind of00:06:39
significant and00:06:42
massive changes in the places and methods of00:06:45
storing money balances in rubles and00:06:48
foreign currencies by Russians that have already00:06:50
influenced and will continue to influence the economy of00:06:53
Russia and neighboring countries. The key00:06:57
question is this is a selection of jurisdictions because00:06:59
Evgeniy really did the right thing a00:07:01
promising reference to the subject,00:07:03
including private money, crypto as such,00:07:06
which was certainly used, I can00:07:09
say that00:07:10
operations that I don’t see are often00:07:13
even accompanied by00:07:15
crypto, well, they say 10-15 percent of crypto is00:07:19
definitely00:07:21
accounted for.00:07:23
This is precisely due to the fact that the banking00:07:27
system is essentially things work Well, as00:07:31
the case00:07:33
fails, then it takes off, the key issues,00:07:37
of course, are jurisdiction, jurisdiction and00:07:40
peace of mind,00:07:42
Russian citizens, like everyone else,00:07:44
absolutely clearly demonstrate what is for00:07:49
them as00:07:51
producers, where Evgeniy correctly00:07:53
made the remark that the key00:07:56
issues in this are both00:07:57
labor productivity and the00:07:59
goods produced and not cut-up candy wrappers that we then00:08:03
accumulate somewhere, but these00:08:06
ritual trips to other jurisdictions00:08:09
show that abroad it is calmer, more00:08:12
profitable, safer from the point of view of the00:08:15
internal worldview, and I often told00:08:20
my friends Just abroad when I00:08:23
traveled myself not only in the summer, but also in the 8th, I00:08:29
told them that, including their00:08:32
Civil Society, this applies to00:08:35
Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, to00:08:39
Germany, Czech Republic. Very correct. Well, it00:08:42
is clear that, not without outbursts, it led from00:08:45
my point of view in relation to refugees,00:08:50
including Russian refugees, because00:08:53
for many, for young people, this was the first and a00:08:57
very traumatic experience with the loss of00:08:59
some basic connections, loss of roots,00:09:02
and it is on the basis of one’s experience and the00:09:07
reaction of these publics abroad00:09:10
who received00:09:12
the warming that00:09:14
decisions will be made00:09:17
when building business strategies when00:09:20
building a company strategy00:09:24
all immigrants all refugees00:09:28
What whatever they are, they have the00:09:31
main feature they do not possess the00:09:34
sign of a nation they do not have the sign of a00:09:35
passport That is why they are running They00:09:38
have the sign of labor a00:09:40
sign of00:09:42
goodwill a sign of will and those00:09:47
countries that have accepted have shown a very00:09:50
important element of the development of sociality and00:09:55
civil society for us for00:09:57
economists, let me remind you that economics is It’s not about00:10:01
money, it’s just about a00:10:04
person’s relationship with work and the results of their00:10:07
work,00:10:08
this is one of the most important, these figures, the00:10:12
indicators given there, these 4000:10:14
billion dollars, that superstructure00:10:18
that we mistakenly call00:10:20
the state, or rather, our officials are00:10:23
completely losing touch with the platform00:10:28
and, simply put, are predatory lead in00:10:31
relation to both our country, this is our00:10:34
country, and to the people inhabiting it.00:10:38
Well, you know, those strangers00:10:42
who, unfortunately, did not arrive,00:10:45
turned out to be born by our mothers, our00:10:48
sisters, respectively, but they were00:10:51
reborn and now, in general, roughly00:10:53
speaking, they are parasitic and00:10:56
causing disputes and eggs through the respiratory00:11:00
tract to our citizens, in the form of propaganda,00:11:04
Russian oil refineries are bursting.00:11:07
And this is the largest manufacturing00:11:09
industry, which accounts for 1500:11:10
percent of all industrial00:11:12
production of the Russian Federation. It is00:11:13
preparing for planned00:11:16
production downtime due to the European embargo00:11:18
on the export of petroleum products, under which, from00:11:20
February 5, oil falls00:11:23
petroleum products downtime in 23, even according to00:11:26
the plan, will become a record; they will consume up to00:11:29
8% of all refinery capacity or 26.5 million tons of00:11:34
crude oil, which is again and 9 million tons00:11:37
more than in the 22nd year and00:11:39
more, for example, the entire Belarusian00:11:41
annual oil refining actual00:11:43
downtime as a rule, twice the plan is00:11:45
Therefore, in total, Russian refineries00:11:48
where about 120,000 Russians are employed00:11:51
are preparing to reduce production00:11:53
by about 15%. in the year, sanctions00:11:58
on petroleum products that Russia00:11:59
has traditionally transported to Europe will have a much00:12:02
greater impact than a barrel of oil00:12:04
in order to assemble a shadow fleet for them for00:12:07
export to the Eastern countries is unlikely to00:12:09
work in the twenty-second year, Russia00:12:11
on average exported about00:12:13
1.2 million barrels of petroleum products to 2400:12:17
hours So the closed European market00:12:19
will reduce volumes by about five times from February 5.00:12:24
Russia will not be able to produce petroleum products in a warehouse because there is no00:12:26
such tank farm where00:12:28
unsold goods can be filled. And since it is impossible not to00:12:31
take it, it is impossible to sell processed00:12:33
oil, it would be possible to increase the export of00:12:35
crude oil here ambush, even the current00:12:37
volumes of 3-4 million barrels per day are00:12:40
barely kept on the market by oil workers at the cost of00:12:43
huge discounts, offering barrels at00:12:45
half price, which hurts the budget and00:12:48
cannot last long Dmitry What00:12:50
will be the consequences of the record reduction in00:12:52
Russian oil refining in the twenty-00:12:54
third year,00:12:56
well, here is the key question Even not just a00:12:59
reduction in processing, because what is00:13:01
being done now00:13:03
with several00:13:05
enterprises, I talked and they00:13:10
were ready for this date, of course, they00:13:13
will now take the equipment out of the00:13:16
planned downtime, there is a time00:13:19
when00:13:21
the equipment is taken out for certain00:13:24
repair work, how long it will last00:13:29
approximately depending from the refinery from two weeks to a00:13:34
month and a half00:13:35
during which time there will be an attempt,00:13:40
including organizing parallel00:13:47
exports, let’s say these attempts have already been00:13:51
going on for quite a long time because, after00:13:54
all, the00:13:55
supply of hydrocarbons in the form of raw materials has a00:14:00
fairly long history of00:14:04
supplying ready-made products to Asian markets00:14:08
product This is a story that has been developing over the00:14:11
last year since we have00:14:13
already entered February, when we are00:14:17
meeting now, it will also be a February00:14:19
story, of course this will lead to00:14:22
losses only in the budget, but the budget in00:14:24
this case, I think is secondary,00:14:28
first of all, what worries us is the00:14:31
loss of workers places00:14:34
and, moreover, the numbers of00:14:38
unspoken unemployment that exist are00:14:41
already quite alarming. Let me00:14:43
remind you that we also often discuss this with you,00:14:48
that probably real00:14:49
unemployment will never be recognized by the Russian authorities, the00:14:52
Russian state00:14:54
will not recognize under any circumstances. But00:14:56
even hidden unemployment is already00:14:59
prohibitive and of course work in the00:15:02
adjacent territory in the00:15:05
context a military operation cannot00:15:08
compensate for income with technical00:15:10
specialists, the00:15:12
most important thing is not00:15:15
moral and ethical non-professional00:15:17
skills, so the00:15:19
first worrying thing is people and the second00:15:23
is, of course, technology. Because when00:15:27
watching all our previous issues,00:15:30
we saw that00:15:32
we often touch on issues of00:15:35
technological lag and care00:15:39
was just in last issue, you can00:15:41
also watch it on our channel, this is the00:15:44
departure of one of the largest companies00:15:49
supplying equipment and solutions in the00:15:52
oil and gas industry, it’s like a chain of00:15:55
events, here’s the Domino chain when the refinery00:15:59
will be very difficult to restart,00:16:01
so I assess these two factors as00:16:05
extremely alarming, we will observe with00:16:08
Evgeniy for news about how00:16:11
refineries will be restarted after shutting down, but a00:16:15
loss of even 15 percent is essentially00:16:19
taking the enterprise away, it will simply00:16:22
increase the budget deficit, which00:16:24
Evgeniy and I often talk about with you, and that’s why00:16:30
I didn’t just not believe, I’m giving specific00:16:34
arguments and facts Why the00:16:37
budget deficit 3 million cannot be00:16:41
met, including due to this00:16:45
news, they will be00:16:48
sent on unpaid leave,00:16:50
someone will lose their job completely,00:16:53
restarting the enterprise will be extremely00:16:55
difficult,00:16:57
non-residents from so-called00:16:59
countries unfriendly to the00:17:01
Russian Federation continue to00:17:03
get rid of Russian00:17:05
government securities in 2023 by selling00:17:08
Federal Loan bonds at a price of00:17:12
25-40 percent of the face value at the first00:17:15
opportunity, that is, discounts reach 7000:17:17
percent of the value of securities due00:17:19
to such transactions, non-residents have reduced00:17:22
their investments in Federal Loan bonds since the beginning of this year00:17:25
by00:17:27
approximately 250 rubles billion rubles00:17:29
Dmitry here we know about the degree of00:17:31
dependence of the Russian economy on00:17:33
foreign buyers of mainly00:17:35
raw materials and foreign sellers of00:17:38
suppliers of almost everything else.00:17:41
What is the degree of dependence of the Russian00:17:43
economy on foreign creditors of00:17:46
bond holders. And what does the fact00:17:49
that they continue to sell00:17:52
Russian government debt with such losses00:17:54
just to get from it tell us? get rid of00:17:56
this says the machine according to the figure which00:17:59
was still there long after the 24th that in general00:18:01
almost the entire Russian market is00:18:03
foreign investors and somewhere there they00:18:06
had jurisdiction and these are former Russian00:18:10
but became foreign investors00:18:12
Because it is more convenient and safer for them00:18:14
the most important thing is to enter Russian money,00:18:16
even honestly earned with00:18:19
taxes paid, with all the00:18:22
possible risks and everything else, as they say.00:18:25
By calmer, I understand them perfectly00:18:27
why they do it this way, up to 70% of the00:18:30
Russian market belonged to00:18:32
foreigners and according to this indicator00:18:35
when we are just now00:18:37
discussing with Evgeniy that they are getting rid00:18:42
of Russian debt even with these colossal losses00:18:44
suggests that No, they don’t believe.00:18:47
They don’t look at the Russian market as an00:18:50
investment market. I just00:18:52
recently had a00:18:54
press conference here with one famous person00:18:57
who has already sat out Vladimir Putin.00:19:00
in personally who said that it is necessary to00:19:03
restart Russian investments.00:19:04
True, he did not say where these00:19:07
investments will come from. Most likely00:19:09
it will be according to the same principle of gop-stop,00:19:12
traditionally they will be taken from00:19:15
taxpayers’ money. Well, some00:19:17
pseudo pension fund, the telephone number00:19:20
of the National State will go there under00:19:23
knife, if you don’t want to take it there, then00:19:26
all our finances of the Industrial Group will not00:19:29
only be acquired again with the00:19:31
oligarchs and loaves of birds, but will also be00:19:33
put out in the same way as now they are put in line for00:19:38
them to00:19:40
set aside money from the budget, it’s true that it’s such a00:19:43
funny situation, the money they first00:19:46
sell the goods to including in the domestic00:19:48
market and then they have some kind of income there that00:19:52
remains, in fact, now the minus00:19:54
is taken away why this will lead00:19:56
because they will raise one product,00:19:58
this is the circulation of fiat money in00:20:02
nature with an increase all the time with the00:20:03
promotion of valuable inflation and the main thing is00:20:06
human hatred It seems to me that it is00:20:08
simply physically unstoppable, so in00:20:11
general Who owns Who played in the Russian00:20:14
market It was foreign00:20:16
investors who are leaving here It is00:20:19
foreign investors Does the word00:20:21
Russian stock market remain00:20:24
a phrase or is it Oksimiron00:20:28
Time will tell about this It was an economic00:20:31
commentary by Dmitry Potapenko in00:20:32
Potapenko's strategy analyst program00:20:34
we have been broadcasting on Dmitry's channel since 2017,00:20:38
maintaining a kind of economic chronicle of the00:20:40
recent history of Russia in the world.00:20:42
Like, write comments, we00:20:44
read them carefully, subscribe to the channel, press00:20:46
the bell to receive notifications about00:20:48
new releases. Well, if you want to00:20:50
understand more deeply what laws00:20:51
work economics and what is the price of00:20:54
not interfering what we miswe00:20:57
call the state we recommend00:20:59
books by Dmitry Potapenko as well as lectures00:21:01
books online courses on economic00:21:03
theory from our colleague economist00:21:06
Pavel Usanov subscribe to his00:21:08
Youtube channel link in the description Well,00:21:10
if you want to get acquainted with the world of00:21:12
cryptocurrencies, which have already taken their00:21:14
rightful place in the economy, they will00:21:16
only develop further, subscribe00:21:18
to my Youtube channel, the link is also in00:21:20
the description, good luck to you. See you againDescription:
Потапенко. Стратегия. Аналитика. Еженедельный комментарий к ключевым событиям в России и мире. Дмитрий Потапенко с новостями недели: - российская нефтепереработка готовится к сокращению производства на 15% в 2023 году в связи с эмбарго ЕС на поставку нефтепродуктов с 5 февраля; - "скрытая безработица" в России достигла рекорда за 8 лет; - россияне за год военных действий вынесли из банков более 2 трлн. рублей наличными и перевели рекордные суммы в соседние страны; - иностранцы распродают российский госдолг с дисконтом до 70%. Канал Евгения Романенко: https://bit.ly/2JgEmGY Павел Усанов: https://bit.ly/3rMDcaU Потапенко.Прямой: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7yPIxQh-uNYnkiPDfWFwgw По коммерческим вопросам: [email protected] Поддержать прямые эфиры: https://www.patreon.com/Potapenko YandexMoney: 4100 1712 1519 02 PayPal: [email protected] ПОДПИСКА НА ДМИТРИЯ ПОТАПЕНКО: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC54SBo5_usXGEoybX1ZVETQ?sub_confirmation=1
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http://unidownloader.com/ website is the best way to download a video or a separate audio track if you want to do without installing programs and extensions.
The UDL Helper extension is a convenient button that is seamlessly integrated into YouTube, Instagram and OK.ru sites for fast content download.
UDL Client program (for Windows) is the most powerful solution that supports more than 900 websites, social networks and video hosting sites, as well as any video quality that is available in the source.
UDL Lite is a really convenient way to access a website from your mobile device. With its help, you can easily download videos directly to your smartphone.
Which format of "Россияне вынесли из банков 2 триллиона рублей! Рекордная скрытая безработица / Дмитрий Потапенко" video should I choose?
The best quality formats are FullHD (1080p), 2K (1440p), 4K (2160p) and 8K (4320p). The higher the resolution of your screen, the higher the video quality should be. However, there are other factors to consider: download speed, amount of free space, and device performance during playback.
Why does my computer freeze when loading a "Россияне вынесли из банков 2 триллиона рублей! Рекордная скрытая безработица / Дмитрий Потапенко" video?
The browser/computer should not freeze completely! If this happens, please report it with a link to the video. Sometimes videos cannot be downloaded directly in a suitable format, so we have added the ability to convert the file to the desired format. In some cases, this process may actively use computer resources.
How can I download "Россияне вынесли из банков 2 триллиона рублей! Рекордная скрытая безработица / Дмитрий Потапенко" video to my phone?
You can download a video to your smartphone using the website or the PWA application UDL Lite. It is also possible to send a download link via QR code using the UDL Helper extension.
How can I download an audio track (music) to MP3 "Россияне вынесли из банков 2 триллиона рублей! Рекордная скрытая безработица / Дмитрий Потапенко"?
The most convenient way is to use the UDL Client program, which supports converting video to MP3 format. In some cases, MP3 can also be downloaded through the UDL Helper extension.
How can I save a frame from a video "Россияне вынесли из банков 2 триллиона рублей! Рекордная скрытая безработица / Дмитрий Потапенко"?
This feature is available in the UDL Helper extension. Make sure that "Show the video snapshot button" is checked in the settings. A camera icon should appear in the lower right corner of the player to the left of the "Settings" icon. When you click on it, the current frame from the video will be saved to your computer in JPEG format.
What's the price of all this stuff?
It costs nothing. Our services are absolutely free for all users. There are no PRO subscriptions, no restrictions on the number or maximum length of downloaded videos.