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Теги видео
Субтитры
Английский
00:00:04
discussing the consequences for our country, for Russia, 00:00:08
for Russian politics, but first I want to ask you.00:00:11
Today we received footage showing that preparations for May 9 have begun, 00:00:14
and we see that these symbols, this letter "Z" and everything that the Russian authorities 00:00:20
use during the war with Ukraine, will be used 00:00:24
during the parade. So, our first question.00:00:26
Vladimir Putin, apparently, made a decision 00:00:33
in addition to celebrating the victory in World War II, 00:00:37
to talk about the war with Ukraine at the parade. How wise is this step on his part, considering that there are 00:00:41
no big achievements in the course of this war?00:00:43
How correct is this?00:00:45
How logical is this from the point of view of the last 54 days?00:00:51
He has no other options, but this event - the "Victory Parade" under Putin 00:00:59
has ceased to be a historical event, it has become the most important event of 00:01:04
current political life.00:01:06
Putin has built his entire political discourse around the cult of victory.00:01:13
He was really serious in January, for example, at the very beginning of the year, 00:01:18
while delivering his address to the 00:01:23
[Federal] Assembly, he said...00:01:24
I've forgotten now, it was a year or two ago.00:01:28
He said that ahead... Well, the address to the Federal Assembly.00:01:34
You give tasks to the country.00:01:35
Yes, and he said that there were many important events awaiting us, 00:01:40
and first of all, he named the next anniversary of the victory. For him, this is a really 00:01:46
relevant political event. For him, the entire political life, a significant part of it...00:01:51
I mean public political life, of course. 00:02:10
The real one revolves around financial flows, 00:01:56
and as for the public political life, it all revolved around this, 00:01:59
so he turned historical events into actual political 00:02:04
events, and therefore he could not ignore it. There would be a terrible vacuum otherwise.00:02:16
But what happened, Vladimir Vladimirovich?00:02:17
We celebrated it every year. Our whole life revolved around this.00:02:20
What about this year? Clearly, the interpretations would be most unfavourable for Putin, 00:02:26
so he had no choice. 00:02:37
But back in March, I started to talk about the fact that it was obvious that he had a deadline, May 9. 00:02:31
On May 9, he had to get at least some victory, because he was in a zugzwang.00:02:42
It is impossible not to celebrate, because the refusal to celebrate will immediately cause a 00:02:46
lot of rumours, and all interpretations will be negative for him.00:02:51
But turns out that celebrating without achieving some kind of victory would also feel generally wrong.00:02:52
Yes, that is, "Our grandfathers fought", "Thanks to grandpa for the victory."00:02:55
And what about you? That is, turns out you didn't do well.00:02:58
Yes, you are worse than the grandfathers.00:03:00
That's why, of course, now, in the days remaining until Victory Day, he will 00:03:06
make every effort possible 00:03:09
to achieve at least some victory, to 00:03:14
do at least something that can be celebrated on May 9.00:03:18
Do you think it is clear that he will mix up May 9 00:03:23
and current events in Ukraine?00:03:27
What will it look like? That is, it is possible that people will march as part of 00:03:33
the "Immortal Regiment" with these portraits...00:03:34
It is possible that, I don't know, the military equipment that was in Ukraine 00:03:40
will reach the Red Square and take part in the parade. What I mean, is this. 00:03:45
Well, Vladimir Putin has some kind of sacral attitude towards this war, right?00:03:49
Isn't he protecting it from everything? Or he is able to mix this war up with 00:03:53
the war that they have been praying at for the last decades, obviously.00:04:00
For him, that victory is sacred, but what he does himself is more sacred.00:04:01
He loves himself very much.00:04:03
He is madly in love with "grandfathers",00:04:08
but he loves himself more than these grandfathers.00:04:09
As a matter of fact, the reason why he clung to this "victory" so much is,00:04:15
in fact, because finding an excuse for what is happening, 00:04:19
an excuse for what he is doing in the current political discourse -00:04:22
in fact, this is very difficult.00:04:24
He presents some arguments.00:04:26
And he himself feels that they are not very convincing. He utilizes the "grandfathers", 00:04:30
the "memory of victory" as a disguise, a smoke screen.00:04:35
Here, he is trying to legitimize himself, his actions, 00:04:40
by building parallels with those actions.00:04:43
History has already given a positive assessment to those events 00:04:47
- there is no doubt about it, and, accordingly, if you attach yourself 00:04:51
to those grandfathers, our glorious winners, well, you seem to be doing well too.00:04:57
Right?00:05:00
That's what he was doing. In fact, this is, of course, cynical.00:05:04
An absolutely cynical choice.00:05:27
This is an absolutely cynical exploitation of the memory of ancestors 00:05:11
in his own interests, in order to cover up the current discourse, which, in fact, to put it mildly, is not ideal, and raises questions from a significant part of society, 00:05:17
so Putin, of course, will intertwine all this, precisely with the aim, 00:05:22
well, to legitimize what is happening.00:05:38
So that behind that veil of "grandfathers" the sins of the present would be seen less, you know? So, of course, I think he will try 00:05:43
to do all the things that you said,. Most importantly, 00:05:46
we need to understand that everything 00:05:48
will look, of course, rather shabby, rather unconvincing.00:05:52
Only a full-fledged victory will really legitimize all this, and we don't see it at all.00:06:00
As a political analyst, can you give an explanation, a definition of 00:06:04
why in moments when there is a request for information, the Russian government so often...00:06:11
Now I'm not talking about any particular case.00:06:14
Rather, globally. There are a lot of losses in the war.00:06:17
Why does the Russian side not give the exact figures?00:06:21
Why don't they talk about the scale of losses, when00:06:26
the logical thing, on the contrary, is to say that yes, the losses are very big indeed.00:06:28
Because this, on the contrary, can only rally people around Putin, because 00:06:32
"Look, our people are being beaten, our people are dying.00:06:34
Let's hold on some more." Or am I wrong?00:06:37
No, Ruslan, look, it's not the difficulties that legitimize.00:06:42
That's the mistake.00:06:43
So, we often hear the phrase "rallying around the flag in a difficult moment".00:06:47
In fact, no, in authoritarian societies, it is not difficulties that unite,00:06:52
but victories over them, society really rallies around the winner.00:06:59
This is what is called the "bandwagon effect" in the American tradition00:07:07
And if you lose, then you offer difficulties and challenges 00:07:13
instead of success.00:07:15
Your legitimacy is going to have problems very soon, so they hide their losses 00:07:21
in every possible way, and constantly try to put on a good face for a bad game, 00:07:26
insisting that everything is going according to plan.00:07:29
Putin's entire legitimacy rests on the fact 00:07:36
that he is strong, 00:07:38
that he always succeeds, that he is victorious, and that he is always the winner.00:07:44
And if it turns out that he is not the winner, then it will be like it was with Akela.00:07:48
"Akela missed his kill." That's it. He will be devoured by his own people.00:07:52
Tell me, since we are talking about these losses in general, 00:07:57
about "will they or won't they win", I would like to ask more specifically.00:08:00
This cruiser, "Moskva". Yes, what happened to it. 00:08:05
The ship was lost, most likely people were killed. 00:08:13
In your opinion, will the authorities continue to hide the truth, 00:08:09
or will they stop concealing it and just admit it? With "Kursk", it was admitted eventually, 00:08:16
but that was the early, somewhat "super-early" Putin. He acknowledged the losses00:08:20
, admitted that the situation was wrong, albeit with 00:08:23
great reservations, of course.00:08:24
Well, he learned a lesson from that story - as soon as he admitted, his rating immediately went down.00:08:31
He understands that victory legitimizes, so he 00:08:36
will not admit anything until the last. That whole story with the leak to "Meduza" - 30?00:08:42
How much? 37, then? Yes, it's an obvious attempt...00:08:51
It is strange to completely deny that people were killed. To insist that no one was injured or killed there at all.00:09:00
That is, they understood this, so they decided to simply minimize the 00:09:05
number of deaths, and, so, they gave out this version through Meduza00:09:11
hoping that people would say: 00:09:15
"Ah, now it's clear - since Meduza says it, it means there's 37 dead, in fact."00:09:20
I personally have no doubt that they did not tell the whole truth, that in reality there are 00:09:25
many more dead, but they will hide it until the last, 00:09:30
realizing that now the legitimacy of this war, which obviously 00:09:36
turned out to be not a blitzkrieg at all, but 00:09:39
portends to be long and protracted. And its success is doubtful.00:09:47
Legitimacy is already starting to limp.00:09:49
Yes, I reiterate, our people 00:09:52
are ready to rally around the winner, but they definitely do not like 00:09:57
to rally around someone who offers difficulties 00:09:59
instead of success. 00:10:04
But any authoritarian public is like that.00:10:06
In general, yes. And the Russians, in this sense, are no exception.00:10:08
That's why they will minimize losses to the last.00:10:13
They simply have no other way out.00:10:19
Tell me, I am observing very closely what is happening in our country.00:10:21
What impact it has.00:10:22
So far, I see a clear trend: the Russian regional authorities have received the "go-ahead" 00:10:26
to get rid of all those who still remained: activists, 00:10:28
independent journalists, entrepreneurs - all of them, under the pretext of the law on fake news, are being 00:10:34
shut down, covered up, arrested, fined.00:10:37
Some don't get off with a fine, but get real prison terms.00:10:41
Here we see a clear trend that the political field is being cleared under the pretext of war.00:10:45
And what else is going on in Russian politics?00:10:47
Now, when the whole focus of attention is shifted to the territory of Ukraine, to the war, 00:10:52
what is happening inside the country?00:10:55
Well, look, the main trend is related to the legitimization of Putin00:11:03
and the weakening of his role as a moderator in the relations of the elites.00:11:07
Therefore, obviously, the destabilization of the political system is increasing, 00:11:13
which means that conflicts that were 00:11:19
previously resolved behind closed doors 00:11:22
are spilling out. In terms of consequences, this is, perhaps, 00:11:30
the most important trend related to the recent events.00:11:36
Abbas, I'm sorry, if we could, 00:11:39
while we haven't gone too far from this thought yet,00:11:40
this is very important, in my opinion.00:11:41
I want our viewers to pay attention to this as well - as you correctly said, Putin has always been such an 00:11:45
arbiter, moderator, between the political...00:11:50
Now, in the context of the war or in the context of the approaching 2024, 00:11:54
which for many years political scientists and journalists have been talking about 00:11:55
that right before that, the altercations will begin.00:12:00
This has to do with the war or the approach of Putin's next re-election, 00:12:03
which is planned in less than 2 years.00:12:06
No, of course, first of all, 00:12:09
it has to do with the war, the unsuccessful war. Had the war been successful, then his role, 00:12:14
as a moderator, would have certainly been strengthened.00:12:17
I have already used the metaphor of "Akela".00:12:20
Yes, that's a very good metaphor.00:12:23
Putin's entire power was based on the feeling that he could cope with 00:12:29
any enemy, so everyone was afraid to anger him, so the elite always 00:12:32
recognized his every decision, recognized that he had the last word.00:12:35
Suddenly, it turned out that he was not so strong and scary.00:12:40
He's banging his fist, rolling his eyes, flashing his teeth.00:12:47
And Zelensky doesn't care, and Ukrainians don't give a damn about all his eye-rolling and teeth-flashing at all.00:12:55
Well, people see that. And it cannot be different in this situation.00:13:01
Well, we see how conflicts, squabbles within the elites, are spilling out, 00:13:06
even though under Putin everyone was always afraid to do so.00:13:10
Especially after he fired Cherkesov, his closest associate, 00:13:13
because of an article in "Kommersant" newspaper.00:13:15
Yes, and now everyone is back again.00:13:18
Now the dominant feeling among the elites is:00:13:22
"If you're drowning, you're on your own"00:13:27
Before it seemed that if you play the role Putin has given you, 00:13:32
don't break Putin's rules and obey his orders, you'll be fine.00:13:37
And now there is no such feeling.00:13:40
It turned out that Putin cannot guarantee a bright future 00:13:44
for those who are loyal to him, and now everyone is starting to build their own 00:13:51
rescue strategy. Someone, like Deripaska, starts swearing on social media 00:13:58
that he is a liberal, 00:13:59
hoping that the West will stop counting him 00:14:05
in the ranks of Putin's oligarchs.00:14:06
And it will not arrest his assets and so on.00:14:10
And someone, like Kadyrov, or, for example, Kiriyenko and Gromov's subordinates, 00:14:18
begin to criticize the "peace party" 00:14:20
shouting "war until the end."00:14:22
Someone, on the contrary, like Peskov and Medinsky understand. 00:14:25
They are probably more flexible guys.00:14:27
They realized that since it was not possible to win, 00:14:30
it is time to rethink the strategy.00:14:32
Let's negotiate peace.00:14:42
It's still better than to be like a sheep banging on a gate that's obviously closed, and the strength of the horns isn't enough00:14:38
to bash through it anyway.00:14:43
So, in general... Putin withdrew himself from what is happening.00:14:48
Yes, and everyone survives the best they can.00:14:51
And all this, of course, will inevitably lead to an increase00:15:00
in protest activity, because revolutions are always, to a large extent,00:15:05
the product of two trends.00:15:10
It is grassroots discontent and conflict among elites at the top.00:15:15
If the elites are welded together, a revolution will never win.00:15:18
But here, the elite conflicts are obvious. In such situations, some groups of the elite 00:15:22
always start negotiations with the opposition.00:15:25
Yes, they start negotiating a future for themselves and thereby 00:15:29
support the opposition, providing it with some resources.00:15:32
Abbas, it is a very interesting thought00:15:37
There we go again. What else has to happen? Economic 00:15:40
sanctions have not pushed toward negotiations with the opposition, 00:15:43
or forming some kind of coalition against Putin. 00:15:45
What else could it be that would get them to unite00:15:49
and go against the one who has for years guaranteed their wealth00:15:53
and safeguarded them from prosecution?00:15:57
And they will not go against him themselves.00:15:59
At some point they will start negotiating, also with Navalny.00:16:04
As it was with Mandela.00:16:05
This is a well-known textbook case.00:16:08
So they packed him there themselves, and when they themselves reached a dead end after 20 years, 00:16:13
they took turns coming back to the cell negotiating 00:16:17
the conditions of his release. 00:16:19
Some will negotiate with Navalny, some with more systemic forces, 00:16:23
like Communists, or someone else... Well, after all, 00:16:28
we have enough politicians in Russia. Some are in exile.00:16:29
Some will probably act through Khodorkovsky.00:16:36
Everyone will be out searching.00:16:37
I am sure they are already looking for these options, these ways.00:16:41
Because there is an overall understanding that the "Russian ship" is rushing 00:16:44
at full speed in the direction of the shoal.00:16:49
And this direction cannot be left unchanged.00:16:53
Yes, and at some point, you will also feel it yourself,00:16:58
when at some point someone will offer you00:16:59
some kind of indulgence, say:00:17:05
"Let us help you set up a firm".00:17:08
You are good guys.00:17:09
In the hope that you will then remember who suggested this to you.00:17:13
In general, this always happens.00:17:17
And this time it will be the exact same thing.00:17:20
And so, all those numerous arrests, that you mentioned. I absolutely agree with you.00:17:23
The system of political violence in Russia is now very decentralized.00:17:27
The power to "put everybody away" has been delegated downwards.00:17:33
What used to be decided at the top level is now decided at the bottom00:17:35
- from the general level down to the major level.00:17:41
These are just the actions of a notional party "War until a Victorious End", 00:17:45
which, realizing where all this is going, is now 00:17:52
trying to weaken the opposition to the maximum extent, 00:17:54
to finish it off in order to... I see, 00:18:00
as it will raise its head anyway, but at least it does so not tomorrow, but the day after tomorrow00:18:04
or in a week. They have now thrown the rest of their forces 00:18:06
into prolonging the period 00:18:07
when the opposition is weakened00:18:13
- consequently, the protest will be 00:18:16
unfocused, and it will therefore be leaderless.00:18:21
So, that would be such a polyphony. That is, 00:18:26
there will be a wiggle room for the elite,00:18:29
to bargain something for themselves.00:18:35
Well, here's what I would like to ask you as my final question, probably.00:18:40
A law has recently been passed stating that... Which is also one of our broadcast00:18:43
topics today - about the prohibition to equate, 00:18:48
I don't know how to put it right, to put an equal sign between Stalin and Hitler.00:18:51
The signing of this law - it's such a good old Putin move. 00:18:57
Or is it also a part of this military propaganda.00:18:59
A part of the war is for people to properly interpret current events in Ukraine.00:19:03
And I don't think this choice you've put, 00:19:09
"either one or the other" is unnecessary. In fact, "Good old Putin" 00:19:13
has been leading in this direction for a long time. It is clear that this is 00:19:19
particularly relevant now because the actions of the Russian troops in Bucha00:19:23
remind too much of those of the Nazis,00:19:29
and the comparison suggests itself, 00:19:34
so additional roadblocks are needed00:19:40
for the public not to draw these parallels.00:19:41
Abbas, one last question00:19:44
You mentioned here today that the oligarchs are unhappy, the elite is split,00:19:49
and there is infighting in Putin's inner circle. So who is he leaning on now, who is his 00:19:53
main pillar - the security forces? And what should affect them in this case?00:19:59
Look, Putin is without a doubt disappointed, in the security forces.00:20:04
They totally failed him.00:20:07
They rattled their weapons for 20 years, and promised him easy victories.00:20:11
He would have never gotten into this Ukrainian story in his life 00:20:14
had he known how shameful it would all end.00:20:17
They have essentially dragged him into a dead end.00:20:20
It is clear that he is mad as hell at them - the disappearance00:20:25
of Shoigu and Gerasimov is only the tip of the iceberg. If he could, he would have cut their heads off, 00:20:30
but he can't because he would be admitting 00:20:33
that something has gone wrong. And he's trying hard to pretend00:20:36
that everything is going according to plan.00:20:37
Yeah, so for now he's just mad at them, pushing some into the background.00:20:42
Well, they're not putting anyone away yet.00:20:43
Although rumors have surfaced that he is already putting someone away.00:20:47
Therefore, he cannot rely on the security forces, he cannot rely on his administration...00:20:51
In fact, everyone disappointed him.00:20:54
Everyone is involved in this dead end situation, in the road 00:21:00
that led him to this dead end. First of all, he is the one to blame,00:21:04
but he can't blame himself, so he blames everyone around him.00:21:08
He is now lonely, confused, demoralized, and distanced from what is happening.00:21:15
He's sitting there, thinking what to do.00:21:17
Thank you, Abbas, for joining us today. 00:21:21
It was very nice to talk to you. Thank you, likewise.Описание:
Путин готовится к 9 мая – эксплуатируя память о Великой Отечественной войне, рассказывает о благородных целях своей кровавой спецоперации. Но, кажется, даже российские элиты уже сомневаются в решениях президента. О том, что сейчас происходит с внутренней политикой России, спрашиваем Аббаса Галлямова. «Легитимность Путина уже начинает хромать. Наш народ готов сплотиться вокруг победителя, но точно не любит объединяться вокруг того, кто предлагает трудности. Путин не может гарантировать светлого будущего для тех, кто ему лоялен. Теперь каждый выстраивает собственную стратегию спасения». Ведущие Руслан Шаведдинов: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Дмитрий Низовцев: https://twitter.com/zimbru_khv Станьте спонсором канала, и вы получите доступ к эксклюзивным бонусам. Подробнее: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7Elc-kLydl-NAV4g204pDQ/join Бот команды Навального: https://t.me/teamnavalny_bot Наши соцсети! Телеграм: https://t.me/politica_media Инстаграм: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Поддержите нашу работу! 🔸Безопаснее всего делать это через криптовалюту. Биткоин-кошелёк: 3QzYvaRFY6bakFBW4YBRrzmwzTnfZcaA6E 🔸Наш Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/navalny_team 🔸Другие способы есть на сайте (в России открывается через VPN): https://donate.acf.international/ru
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Какой формат видео "Аббас Галлямов: Силовики подставили Путина" выбрать?
Наилучшее качество имеют форматы FullHD (1080p), 2K (1440p), 4K (2160p) и 8K (4320p). Чем больше разрешение вашего экрана, тем выше должно быть качество видео. Однако следует учесть и другие факторы: скорость скачивания, количество свободного места, а также производительность устройства при воспроизведении.
Почему компьютер зависает при загрузке видео "Аббас Галлямов: Силовики подставили Путина"?
Полностью зависать браузер/компьютер не должен! Если это произошло, просьба сообщить об этом, указав ссылку на видео. Иногда видео нельзя скачать напрямую в подходящем формате, поэтому мы добавили возможность конвертации файла в нужный формат. В отдельных случаях этот процесс может активно использовать ресурсы компьютера.
Как скачать видео "Аббас Галлямов: Силовики подставили Путина" на телефон?
Вы можете скачать видео на свой смартфон с помощью сайта или pwa-приложения UDL Lite. Также есть возможность отправить ссылку на скачивание через QR-код с помощью расширения UDL Helper.
Как скачать аудиодорожку (музыку) в MP3 "Аббас Галлямов: Силовики подставили Путина"?
Самый удобный способ — воспользоваться программой UDL Client, которая поддерживает конвертацию видео в формат MP3. В некоторых случаях MP3 можно скачать и через расширение UDL Helper.
Как сохранить кадр из видео "Аббас Галлямов: Силовики подставили Путина"?
Эта функция доступна в расширении UDL Helper. Убедитесь, что в настройках отмечен пункт «Отображать кнопку сохранения скриншота из видео». В правом нижнем углу плеера левее иконки «Настройки» должна появиться иконка камеры, по нажатию на которую текущий кадр из видео будет сохранён на ваш компьютер в формате JPEG.
Сколько это всё стоит?
Нисколько. Наши сервисы абсолютно бесплатны для всех пользователей. Здесь нет PRO подписок, нет ограничений на количество или максимальную длину скачиваемого видео.