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US, 1 million deaths this week, 100 million cases this fall and winter 1918 / 1919 At least 50 million worldwide 675,000 in the United States (Population 105 million) Mortality was high in Younger than 5 years old 20-40 years old 65 years and older National Center for Health Statistics https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/index.htm More than 1 million deaths Higher death rate than in any other major industrialized country https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2022/02/24/2022.02.23.22271380.full.pdf Life expectancy, biggest drop since 1918 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm Overwhelmingly unvaccinated Mostly old, low income, Black, Hispanic 2020 Heart disease, cancer, Covid Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States (Pen State) https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2007476117 9 million who have lost a close relative Grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, child US cases / infections Probably start to go down from late May BA.2.12.1 subvariant set to overtake BA.2 Cases may increase in the South over summer Biden administration 100 million infections fall and winter 2022 Waning immunity, vaccines and infections Variant immune escape Loosened restrictions Projections assume omicron and subvariants will continue to dominate community spread No dramatically different strain of the virus Seroprevalence of Infection-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies — United States, September 2021–February 2022 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7117e3.htm Convenience sample of blood specimens, for anti-N antibodies As of February 2022 18 to 49 years, 63.7% 50 to 64 years, 49.8% Over 65s, 33.2% Children and adolescents 75% of had serologic evidence of previous infection High infection rate for Omicron, especially among children. Should not be interpreted as protection from future infection Vaccination remains the safest strategy for preventing complications from SARS-CoV-2 infection COVID-19 Results Briefing, United States of America, April 7, 2022 https://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/2022/102_briefing_United_States_of_America_3.pdf 76% of people in the US have been infected at least once as of April 4 Do not suggest a substantial BA.2 surge in the US But if we do, last for 3 weeks There is not sufficient evidence at this time that BA.2 spread warrants a broader push on a fourth booster, except in those at high risk. Pfizer and Moderna Working on new booster shots Combine different variants of the virus