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0:00
ВСТУПЛЕНИЕ
0:23
ЧТО БУДУТ ДЕЛАТЬ ВСУ?
6:15
ЭВОЛЮЦИЯ МОБИЛИЗАЦИИ
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00:00:05
on the development of the situation.
00:00:07
I don’t like making any prognoses but today I’ll try.
00:00:11
Both frontal and political.
00:00:14
We should begin with the review of the situation as of today. What should our prognosis be based on?
00:00:22
WHAT WOULD THE UKRAINIAN ARMY DO
00:00:27
The main result of the last few weeks is about Kherson. Kherson is not a military aim, and not a point on the map,
00:00:33
it’s a purely political outcome.
00:00:35
The political meaning of the Kherson defeat is the annulment of all Vladimir Putin’s efforts
00:00:41
on building the alternative legal reality.
00:00:45
What was the point of this ridiculous borders’ drawing on the trenches?
00:00:49
The point was to make the rest of the world live in this parallel reality.
00:00:54
Everybody was supposed to believe in the inviolability of the Russian borders and
00:00:59
the possibility of the nuclear attack to defend them.
00:01:03
Afterwards, it’s impossible to understand if something could have come out of this attempt to intimidate everyone.
00:01:11
Anyway, it was so hasty, sloppy and ridiculous that the result hasn’t impressed anyone outside,
00:01:19
and even inside the country no one took it seriously.
00:01:23
Just listen to Dmitry Peskov’s comment the next day after the Constitution got itself new subjects –
00:01:29
“we would consult with local citizens”.
00:01:34
The matter of the state borders of Russia has never required any advice and consultation before – till the autumn of 2022.
00:01:42
I mean even the annexation act didn’t look real.
00:01:47
They were too hasty, everything looked like a carnival, the new borders they invented looked too intangible.
00:01:54
Those borders faltered the very next day – because the next day Lyman fell.
00:02:00
However, Lyman or other victories of Ukraine in the Kherson region didn’t look symbolic.
00:02:07
The symbol was the only regional center taken by Russia.
00:02:12
It looked like they would hold it till the end.
00:02:16
Because the defeat there means nothing else than bringing all the territories taken by Russia back to the game.
00:02:23
Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk, Luhansk – it turns out that all those territories are as Russian as Kherson,
00:02:34
the loss of which caused no official response at all.
00:02:38
Like it was with the retreat from Kyiv, or with running away from the Kharkiv region.
00:02:43
So, the Russian government confirmed, “Nothing has changed, don’t pay any attention to us.
00:02:49
Come on, we don’t believe in it ourselves”.
00:02:53
It's a very important moment both for Ukraine and its allies.
00:02:57
The louder the Russian government says that it’s not a bluff, the more obvious it is that it’s definitely a bluff and nothing else.
00:03:06
No legal actions of Russia should confuse anyone – the country borders depend just on the actions
00:03:12
of the Ukrainian army and nothing else, Russia is ready to retreat as much as it will be necessary.
00:03:19
What does it give us in terms of a prognosis?
00:03:22
In terms of a prognosis it tells us that the Ukrainian army’s actions wouldn’t be restricted by the political fantasies
00:03:28
of the Kremlin.
00:03:31
If earlier you could discuss “the red lines” and sometimes even seriously, but now they are definitely out of the agenda.
00:03:40
Any direction can become the next one for the Ukrainian army. And if those territories were occupied before February 24
00:03:47
or not – it’s just details.
00:03:51
There is no more magic protection over the previously occupied territories.
00:03:57
In our predictions about the Ukrainian army’s actions we can use just the military logic – it’s difficult to speed up Dnieper,
00:04:06
so, it’s more likely that we will see the offensive in the Zaporizhian region or in Donbas.
00:04:11
More likely that in Zaporizhia because if this offensive is successful, it will cut the Russian army in half.
00:04:18
We can never know for sure what the Ukrainian army will do next, but we know for sure – Vladimir Putin’s performances
00:04:26
don’t affect it at all.
00:04:31
The same thing with the probability of using nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are good as an unfulfilled threat,
00:04:38
but Putin has said it directly and hinted at it so many times.
00:04:44
And his words have always been such rubbish that the threat has completely discredited itself.
00:04:55
Now we’ll talk about mobilization.
00:04:57
We’ll try to predict what changes we should expect in future.
00:05:01
But first a small non-commercial announcement. It can be useful for different volunteer projects.
00:05:07
Non-commercial announcement
00:06:15
Let’s continue!
00:06:16
Mobilization is a far more interesting topic.
00:06:18
Because we can see it in dynamics, but it hasn’t reached any result or consequences yet.
00:06:24
It’s quite possible that after the New Year – the moment when autumn conscription ends – mobilization will continue.
00:06:30
It will start afresh and on a new level.
00:06:33
Yes, the Russian government’s strong side is not efficiency, but it can solve obvious problems.
00:06:40
The most obvious problem was that the whole vertical of military registration was deep in the Soviet era.
00:06:48
The registration was sloppy and on paper.
00:06:51
And the data between the conscription centers and all the other authorities
00:06:55
(especially, the border service) weren’t synchronized.
00:06:58
The legal framework wasn’t ready for mobilization.
00:07:02
Everything that was between a person and death was a fine for 3000 rubles which was issued
00:07:08
a couple of times in St. Petersburg or maybe wasn’t issued at all.
00:07:11
So you refuse to leave for the frontline, you pay 3000 rubles.
00:07:17
As a result, mobilization became a weird business.
00:07:20
They just took everyone who didn’t even think to resist.
00:07:25
Or not even resist – they took everyone who couldn’t answer the question “Will you go and die?” with at least “May I not?”.
00:07:35
Don’t take the notification and don’t go to the conscription centers – the main advice since the beginning of mobilization –
00:07:39
wasn’t just effective, it was a silver bullet.
00:07:44
We don’t know of any single case when people who didn’t want to go were mobilized.
00:07:48
And we don’t know of any single case when there were serious consequences if people refused.
00:07:53
They literally took those people who had come on their own.
00:07:57
Yes, in the end we’ve seen raids and drama.
00:08:00
But the drama frightened the authorities so much that they wrapped it up very quickly.
00:08:05
The informational chaos which allowed people to hide from mobilization even abroad.
00:08:11
And the legal void which prevents people from getting any real punishment for that.
00:08:15
Those are two objective problems for the Russian government which made mobilization one big profanation.
00:08:21
Those are two problems which can be easily solved.
00:08:25
We know that now the rapid digitalization of conscription centers is going on.
00:08:30
That the military bases are synchronized with anything else, starting from the border service
00:08:35
to State Computerized System “Elections”.
00:08:38
We know that the State Duma has a ready-to-go draft law which makes the refusal to be mobilized the same as the refusal
00:08:45
to be conscripted. Vladimir Putin still needs people at the front.
00:08:50
He needs a lot of people, much more than there is now and much more than the specified parameters of mobilization are.
00:08:59
We know that no one has canceled the order about mobilization, formally and legally it is still active.
00:09:07
We know that the governmental authorities and the biggest companies are getting ready for the new wave
00:09:12
and think it’s inevitable.
00:09:14
We have no idea if this new stage of mobilization is going to be announced officially by the President or if it's going to be
00:09:21
“an additional conscription plan” for the local conscription centers and the governors. It’s more likely that the second.
00:09:28
This wave will be better organized than the previous one and there will be less chaos and gray areas where you can hide.
00:09:35
Everyone mobilization can affect – all the men younger than 60 – should take care of their safety right now
00:09:42
and not when the ticket to Yerevan costs as much as the apartment in Yerevan.
00:09:47
And you won’t be allowed to go even with such a ticket.
00:09:51
And you won’t be able to leave via Belarus, this gap had closed by the end of the previous mobilization.
00:09:57
You must remember – the Russian government doesn’t totally consist of imbeciles and doofuses,
00:10:02
otherwise it should’ve collapsed long ago.
00:10:05
Maybe not in the highest level, but on the middle level there are enough effective bureaucrats
00:10:12
who understand it quite well that the mobilization of naive 50- years-old idiots who thought they would go and play in war
00:10:21
imitation, is not going to work.
00:10:23
More or less, people understood that it’s serious, no one would go to the conscription center “to confirm the data”.
00:10:30
If the previous wave ended with raids, the next one will start with them.
00:10:36
The Russian government can and will solve the problem of sending people to war,
00:10:42
because this is a new task but it is solved with old tools – with registration of everything and with police violence.
00:10:50
But the Russian government can’t do anything either about the determination of the mobilized men or with the lack
00:10:56
of equipment and weapons.
00:10:59
The last month unmasked the gaps we couldn’t even imagine.
00:11:05
It wasn’t news that the Russian army doesn’t have any modern tools to lead war – it doesn’t look
00:11:11
like someone seriously counts on body armor or night vision devices.
00:11:15
But it was impossible to imagine that the Russian army doesn’t even have warm clothes.
00:11:21
It seemed that the stocked are full with that stuff.
00:11:24
The Russian management will easily solve legal and informational problems of mobilization,
00:11:31
but it won’t be that easy and fast to compensate for years of robbery and incompetence in the army.
00:11:39
Because it’s not a bug of the Russian army, it’s its basic feature. 20 years of reforms in the army,
00:11:45
and trillions of dollars for rearmament resulted in what we have now – the rear supplies of the Russian army
00:11:51
is under the management of Sobyanin and Mishustin’s Coordination Council.
00:11:54
It’s impossible to rearrange the system in two months because its problem is in its architecture.
00:12:01
There is no one who can train the mobilized men because the whole professional army is dying at war.
00:12:07
There were no supplies for the army even when it had 150,000 people.
00:12:14
And of course, the government can’t provide for the army which is 3 times bigger now.
00:12:18
And the more people there are, the more serious the problem is going to be.
00:12:23
As a result, the scheme will be really bad – we have a government which will definitely solve the problem
00:12:29
of sending people to war, and it won’t be that easy to escape next time.
00:12:35
And also we have a problem that the government will never turn the huge crowd into an army.
00:12:42
However, the increase of effectiveness in gathering people and the same level of training and equipment will not change
00:12:48
the situation in the front.
00:12:49
But it will dramatically increase the number of people’s deaths. There will be more deaths, but it will give Vladimir Putin
00:12:58
what he needs most – time.
00:13:00
The slower the Ukrainian army attacks, the more probable it is that some accident which would save Putin is going to happen.
00:13:08
Cold winter, hot summer, favorable election results at least somewhere, internal crisis in Ukraine,
00:13:15
another big catastrophe which will distract everyone from Ukraine (from new pandemic to China’s attack on Taiwan).
00:13:23
For all those 20 years, external circumstances have always been favorable for Putin in the end.
00:13:28
And now he is waiting for the same. In the end, if we make predictions not on fantasies but on what we really see,
00:13:37
we can say that it’s all about time.
00:13:42
Ukraine has to hurry up – the loyalty of the society in Ukraine’s ally countries depends on publicly known victories.
00:13:52
The Western voters want to see where their money goes to.
00:13:56
If the Russian army flees and loses its positions, then the money is spent effectively.
00:14:01
If it is an attrition war about positions and trenches, there is no good news, then people get tired of it
00:14:08
and their mood becomes worse.
00:14:10
Of course, it won’t reduce the previous supplies, but it will destroy the social demand for new supplies.
00:14:18
Ukraine’s actions are no longer restricted by political myths. They are not restricted by Putin’s bluff.
00:14:24
He did everything he could to make people outside and inside the country ignore his bluff.
00:14:29
But the Ukrainian army is restricted by time.
00:14:33
It has to move forward very quickly in order to stay where it is.
00:14:37
No one has any doubts that Ukraine can defend itself, but now everyone wants regular victories.
00:14:45
Putin’s task is the opposite.
00:14:47
No one is expecting victories from him.
00:14:49
Everyone understands that this mess will never end well.
00:14:53
His task is to buy as much time as he can. And he can do it just by sending new people to the front.
00:15:01
These people would die massively, but in this political moment it doesn’t matter.
00:15:06
In this political moment the task is not “to win” but “not to lose” – just to wait for a lucky accident.
00:15:13
For now, no lucky accident Putin counted for never happened.
00:15:18
However, for those people who are in Russia now – the further it goes,
00:15:23
the higher is the human price Vladimir Putin is ready to pay to buy himself more time.
00:15:30
If you are a male citizen of Russia, remember about this inevitable threat and act now until the government comes after you,
00:15:41
while you can just buy a ticket and leave!
00:15:44
Because when it does, it’s not for a fact that those simple mantras we’ve read here in September will still work.
00:15:53
Till tomorrow!

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