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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:03
suitcase without a handle Putin says listen,00:00:06
can I put 100000:00:09
tanks there Lukashenko years, what is the question there is00:00:11
no war between Russia and Ukraine there is00:00:13
a war in Russia with America, it just00:00:15
happens in the territory of Ukraine when a00:00:17
person is unable define to conduct a00:00:21
dialogue in a modern language does not understand00:00:23
what kind of modern world we are building, then he has nothing to offer in00:00:25
diplomatic jargon in00:00:27
diplomatic language00:00:29
on the fifth side of the wall ours on this00:00:31
side your network let you not come to us00:00:33
we don’t want to visit you Lukashenko00:00:35
was put in a corner Lukashenko was deprived of00:00:38
afternoon tea let’s so let's say there, for00:00:40
various reasons, the West decided not to00:00:42
help Russia, so if the stars are shining, then00:00:45
someone needs it, why Putin conducts dialogue with the00:00:47
West only in the language of war, what00:00:50
future awaits the Belarusians and why00:00:53
Lukashenko is not afraid of sanctions, they asked a00:00:55
Russian economist Sergei00:00:57
Aleksashenko Sergei hello, I just00:01:00
wanted to in order, first Belarus00:01:03
Russia recently signed an integration00:01:05
agreement, does it mean anything at all00:01:07
or is it just another fiction,00:01:09
so to speak, some kind of gesture00:01:12
towards the West, good afternoon, well, it00:01:14
seems to me that this should be treated00:01:16
quite calmly00:01:19
two countries, two states, two leaders 200:01:25
dictators are trying to agree on something00:01:26
and it seems to me that they do not00:01:30
understand the final goal very well, but insofar00:01:33
as the bureaucracy cannot work00:01:35
without a plan, then it was necessary to create00:01:38
these road maps that lead to something,00:01:40
but this is something like this, let us00:01:43
Now we will agree that you will start building00:01:44
roads, the report will be at the end we will see,00:01:47
so I would treat this00:01:49
quite calmly on the one hand,00:01:52
Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and00:01:54
Kyrgyzstan are members of the Eurasian00:01:56
Union and this integration association in itself00:02:00
provides for some kind of coordination of00:02:03
some kind of approval actions elements00:02:05
of legislation, therefore, once00:02:07
you call yourself a load, get into the back of the truck,00:02:09
therefore, in general, on the one hand, there seems to be00:02:11
nothing wrong with this00:02:14
if these agreements00:02:17
provide for the00:02:18
simplification of all procedures related to00:02:20
crossing the border, the threat of00:02:22
truckers with cargo, in general, it’s also00:02:24
good there, regardless of the00:02:26
political regime, but why as a00:02:29
single space for labor goods,00:02:31
it seems to me that the most important thing that00:02:35
these agreements do not have is no00:02:39
solution to any goals for political00:02:41
integration, but there are no goals for the00:02:44
integration of monetary policy, no00:02:47
integration goals for unifying the00:02:48
budget, but this means that the two00:02:50
countries have agreed on the fact that they00:02:53
will somehow be together like hard, in fact,00:02:56
again, yes, this is because of economic00:02:57
geography, it is very well known that there00:03:00
economic ties between countries00:03:01
located nearby are always closer00:03:04
than those with countries that are located00:03:05
far away, well, that is, if you look at it so00:03:08
abstractly not Paying attention to the00:03:10
political realities, there is nothing wrong with00:03:11
this, but the countries can agree00:03:14
on how it is more convenient for them to cooperate with00:03:16
each other so that the economies there00:03:18
work better among themselves, there are fewer barriers to00:03:20
political ambitions, no declared,00:03:22
so I take this quite00:03:23
calmly, but the bureaucracy is something will00:03:25
do, by and large, no clear00:03:28
tasks have been set as we are for all00:03:31
the good against all the bad, also for all00:03:33
the good, but just after the signing of the00:03:35
game cards we noticed a huge00:03:38
redeployment of military equipment on the00:03:40
territory of Belarus, that is, it is00:03:41
increasing its number and many00:03:45
political scientists here on live broadcasts they said00:03:48
that perhaps the migration crisis was00:03:50
created so that, on the sly, they could00:03:52
say in simple terms that00:03:54
even more military equipment could be00:03:56
transferred to the territory of Belarus, they00:03:57
agree with this, listen, I’m definitely00:04:00
not an expert on military issues, I00:04:03
know that for some time pom00:04:05
two weeks before the signing of this package, the00:04:07
agreement of the Minister of Defense signed00:04:09
an agreement to extend the00:04:11
presence of Russian military bases at the00:04:16
Veliki Baranovichi radar communications center, respectively, for the00:04:20
Russian armed forces there, these are00:04:21
critical infrastructure facilities00:04:23
for tracking missiles and a communications center00:04:26
for the navy00:04:28
As for the deployment of Russian troops00:04:31
on the territory of Belarus,00:04:33
but it seems to me that neither Putin nor Lukashenko00:04:36
seriously pays attention to this, for00:04:38
them the concept of a state border is00:04:40
somehow absent, that is, Putin says00:04:43
listen, can I place00:04:45
1000 Lukashenko tanks there with you, that’s the question00:04:47
here those bills like pay money place00:04:50
with him you can’t be in Russia if00:04:52
there’s no place to put put put00:04:55
Putin has some understanding of his own, he00:04:58
recently told me that we want to00:05:00
keep the West in suspense, he clearly00:05:02
expressed his intention, it00:05:05
seems to me that this is the deployment of Russian00:05:07
troops along the border with Ukraine,00:05:08
the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus is00:05:11
his constant talk, we need such a00:05:13
missile, such a missile will now be put into00:05:16
service there at the beginning of the year, this is an element of00:05:18
dialogue with the West that is00:05:21
not diplomatic, and indirectly this is00:05:24
communication with the West while you show us we00:05:26
have something to threaten you with, these are not always00:05:30
if things happen at the same time it doesn’t00:05:32
mean that they are connected to each other, it seems to me that it’s00:05:34
just a coincidence, well, because00:05:36
in my understanding, it’s still something like00:05:39
Putin at some point, well, stepped00:05:42
aside from the political unification, in the00:05:44
end he had all these 28 agreements,00:05:46
well,00:05:48
282600:05:49
but all the geopolitical games are00:05:52
definitely not considered at all in the format of these00:05:54
agreements.00:05:55
You tell the feeling that you say00:05:57
that in this way he is showing something to00:05:58
the West, he is conducting a dialogue in this way, and00:06:01
why is he not conducting a dialogue at the00:06:03
diplomatic level, namely in the language and00:06:05
graphics of aggression? not diplomatic,00:06:07
then military language, then I’m actually Putin00:06:09
and she’s talking to the West in00:06:11
just sign language, and00:06:16
actually, there’s nothing diplomatic here, it00:06:17
seems to me that Putin’s problem is from the point of00:06:21
view of foreign policy, he puts forward00:06:23
a thesis and he wants how to achieve what then the00:06:25
goals that the modern world is not very00:06:28
clear, yes, but look there again we take and00:06:31
the last of those speeches there on December 1,00:06:33
Russia has its own red lines and they00:06:36
pass because the hotel heard that the00:06:38
President of the United States spoke about some red00:06:40
lines that are in his head but only00:06:42
Barack Obama is talking about Syria, and if there’s something on the dash00:06:44
there’s a date, then00:06:46
we’re talking about America alone, talking about Syria, and I don’t00:06:48
know there,00:06:50
Erdogan in Turkey really talked about the red00:06:53
line, no, a Soviet00:06:55
Russian plane flew into the territory,00:06:57
they took everything here but they knocked down no red00:06:59
lines there, it’s not just that they broke it, they00:07:01
knocked down Putin has some kind of thing, he lives,00:07:03
they teach the past, yes, he lives with these00:07:06
Soviet ideas of some kind00:07:07
from the same century as I already lived onion, I was in the00:07:10
late seventies, the Soviet Union00:07:12
there in Pershing in Europe and we are now00:07:13
deploying our missiles, all this happened and00:07:16
Putin has it, he lives with these00:07:18
constructions of the past and he is trying to00:07:20
force a conversation on the West in the Yalta00:07:23
world about the division of spheres of influence, and for the West,00:07:26
spheres of influence for dinner, how to say00:07:28
listen, what do spheres mean? influence00:07:29
sphere of influence so later the American goes00:07:32
through American technology the00:07:34
American iPhone, which is in China,00:07:36
this is the sphere of influence, it is clear that there00:07:38
China is not an object and there America00:07:41
never claims aquitar there was a00:07:42
sphere of influence, nevertheless, through00:07:44
American technology this is the sphere of00:07:46
influence of America through the American00:07:48
films and there through European culture,00:07:50
so he is an attempt to00:07:53
divide geographically into this during the Cold00:07:54
War, we can please you, we are already drawing an00:07:56
iron barrier, an iron curtain, on00:07:59
this side of the wall, ours, on this side,00:08:01
your strength, let you not come to us, we do00:08:03
n’t want you spheres of influence divided00:08:05
fences now it is impossible to build a fence00:08:08
and Putin wants to build it and therefore the00:08:11
channel tells the West let's build a00:08:12
fence battle we need a fence when a person is00:08:15
not able to define a00:08:17
dialogue in a modern language does not understand00:08:19
how the modern world works, then he has nothing in00:08:21
diplomatic jargon00:08:23
in diplomatic language00:08:25
suggest I remember I had00:08:27
conversations there about three years ago in Washington00:08:29
when there was still the Trump administration and00:08:33
there in the morning I wanted to make a00:08:35
big deal with Putin to agree on something, I00:08:38
sat with one former00:08:39
high-ranking official of the00:08:41
Republican administration on00:08:42
the previous one and here we are with them like this00:08:45
role-playing game I say, well, okay, that’s00:08:47
what you wanted from Putin, and he00:08:49
can’t offer anything. All our conversations with00:08:51
Putin mean that what you will give us in exchange in this00:08:53
deal boils down to the fact that well, I00:08:56
won’t tell you until the articles are sticks00:08:58
put it in the wheels according to a good00:09:00
agreement, you want from us this this00:09:02
this this and you just won’t do00:09:04
[ __ ] to us there, well, you understand, when you00:09:06
highly value his position as a bully, that00:09:09
is, either you pay the cops a kickback00:09:12
or I’ll do nasty things to you. these are00:09:14
Giza, so it’s very difficult to talk to him diplomatically, do00:09:17
you think he doesn’t00:09:19
understand or his specific goal is clear,00:09:21
well, listen, I don’t have an answer to00:09:24
this question, but I can’t for the life of00:09:26
people, but if we talk about Lukashenko, then00:09:27
everything is clear there, and the flask whistles like00:09:29
many say from the beads from the eyes there is a feeling00:09:31
that there is already something there, some kind of intelligence there00:09:33
and some kind of matrix for you and00:09:34
look, wait, Putin is not a fool, yes,00:09:38
here Putin is not a fool, Putin’s head00:09:41
works quite soberly from his point of00:09:45
view, yes he he tenaciously holds information, he00:09:48
knows how to analyze it, he can00:09:50
hold it, use it, so on, you just00:09:52
need to understand well that he has his00:09:55
own coordinate system in his head, and yes, he00:09:57
lives in his own worldview, but Putin00:10:00
really lives in the world, you need a00:10:03
traditional widget like this, you can00:10:06
give a bunch of dictatorial examples there00:10:07
regimes when he believes that the West is asleep00:10:10
and sees Putin attacking Russia there00:10:13
from the Kremlin, taking out Russian00:10:15
resources to plunder and take for himself, he00:10:17
constantly talks about this, remember there is00:10:20
this phrase that there is a West speed with how to00:10:22
snatch the claws out of a Russian’s bags, he sees00:10:24
the world as a struggle there is a West that the00:10:27
aggressive West wants to bring peace-loving00:10:30
Russia to its knees and there is no00:10:32
war between Russia and Ukraine, there is a war in00:10:34
Russia with America, it’s just not happening in the00:10:36
territory of Ukraine and it’s not Russia that00:10:39
attacked Ukraine, it’s America that attacked00:10:41
Russia, Russia is forced to defend itself in00:10:45
this in This is the same thing when his vision of the00:10:47
world is like this past shoot vision,00:10:49
that is, reality, so talking about00:10:51
it adequately inadequate understands does not00:10:53
understand, he lives like this and when you00:10:56
talk with Putin in the broad00:10:58
sense of the word and when you analyze00:10:59
Putin’s many in his picture of the world,00:11:02
it is pointless to get involved look at00:11:06
Putin’s actions there from an00:11:08
outside observer, you will never00:11:11
understand why he is doing this today, the00:11:14
5th package of sanctions against Belarus has come into force,00:11:15
the United States is already talking about the00:11:19
development of sanctions, do you think these00:11:21
sanctions somehow put pressure on the regime, are00:11:24
they noticeable and to what extent? Putin00:11:27
is suffering from these sanctions, these sanctions are a00:11:29
tool of diplomatic pressure, and00:11:33
I often have conversations at home about what kind of00:11:37
auction policy the OSCE can pursue,00:11:39
I say, let’s agree00:11:40
first on what the goal is, before00:11:42
analyzing the strength or weakness of the00:11:44
new sanctions, click on what goal the OSCE00:11:47
sets for itself in the European Union there are the00:11:49
United States of America,00:11:51
sanctions have almost never led to a change in the00:11:53
political regime, which means we can00:11:55
say that people there are sober and in00:11:58
Brussels and Washington, respectively, the00:12:00
goal of removing Lukashenko is not worth it, that00:12:04
is, of course they wanted00:12:05
Lukashenko to leave the political arena there,00:12:07
but that doesn’t mean not because the sanctions will put00:12:11
pressure on him, they wanted to00:12:13
continue there, you can use sanctions to try to change00:12:16
behavior,00:12:17
but the most striking example is the Iranian00:12:19
sanctions, which forced Iran to00:12:21
negotiate a nuclear deal and even00:12:23
write it down, but the sanctions were very00:12:25
tough, much stronger than those00:12:27
which today are imposed on Belarus here00:12:30
and there with a00:12:31
prize as it sounds very strange, but in00:12:34
Iran there were elections in which the rules were00:12:36
convinced at that moment by the progressive00:12:38
president of his candidates, Rouhani, who00:12:40
went to negotiate and reach some kind of deal00:12:42
with, in this regard, there are00:12:44
Iranian sanctions Iran's policy has achieved its goal00:12:46
for some time has00:12:48
changed further00:12:51
sanctions can be carried out relatively speaking like the00:12:54
United States of America in relation to the00:12:56
Soviet Union water there are00:12:58
technological limitations when00:13:00
access to American00:13:01
Western technologies is closed00:13:03
such technical isolation and which there00:13:06
should cause lags further00:13:09
sanctions can be added as Obama00:13:11
announced when against Putin against00:13:12
Russia, simply nexia of Crimea, we will00:13:15
increase the economic price of political00:13:17
decisions, that is, yes, you made a decision on the00:13:20
annexation of Crimea before you made a decision on00:13:22
aggression in the Donbass, we cannot00:13:24
force you to change this decision, you will00:13:26
be buried if only America00:13:28
understands well that this is beyond our power, but we00:13:30
will make you pay for it, you, as the00:13:32
Russian economy, will00:13:34
pay for this for some time, the Russian00:13:36
economy really paid for it, but it00:13:37
seems to me that sanctions against00:13:39
Belarus are from the last of the last00:13:42
series, that is, simply for that finger for those00:13:46
political decisions for the policy00:13:48
that Lukashenko is pursuing in relation to00:13:50
his people in relation to his country, the00:13:53
regime of the economy of Belarus will pay00:13:55
Lukashenko was put in a corner,00:13:58
well,00:14:01
Lukashenko was deprived of an afternoon snack, let's just00:14:03
say that's what we have and dessert for lunch,00:14:07
let's continue to understand well00:14:09
before that the scrotum00:14:13
maneuvered between the West and Russia for a very long time, that00:14:15
is, he never wanted such00:14:17
close subordination, Russia always tried to00:14:20
find a second point of support as if00:14:21
to maneuver and it turns out that the false00:14:24
should have been known more, but not because of the sanctions,00:14:27
let’s say you can’t fall asleep because the fact00:14:28
that not only for the sand, but because of what00:14:31
he did in August September00:14:33
October of the twentieth year before the court in00:14:36
saying00:14:37
how you also had no need to mock your00:14:41
people, I’ll say so this was the00:14:43
reason that he launched all of us,00:14:45
we don’t communicate We don’t recognize you and00:14:48
you can’t count on us anymore;00:14:51
today we do00:14:53
n’t even want to talk to you, and in this situation,00:14:55
of course, Lukashenko only has 1 on00:14:58
1 fulcrum left, then Putin, and there the financial00:15:01
support of Russia does not continue, and in00:15:03
this regard I am quite skeptical00:15:06
I look at the effectiveness of the anti and the00:15:09
males there were against the main00:15:11
Belarusian exporters before this and fertilizers and00:15:13
petroleum products, I believe that if Putin00:15:17
wants a date there, Russian companies00:15:19
will agree with Belarusian ones and on the exchange of00:15:21
markets, well, that is, relatively speaking, those00:15:23
markets where Belaruskali supplied00:15:25
will supply Uralkali and vice versa those00:15:28
market where we supply there refinery oil growth00:15:30
there where Belarusian gasoline will come00:15:33
gasoline from oil growth will00:15:35
come to other markets somehow they will00:15:38
pretend to pretend that there it is not00:15:40
Belarusian gasoline but the growth of oil00:15:42
and that’s where it will actually end,00:15:45
so I don’t believe that00:15:48
such economic sanctions on00:15:49
Russian exporters will be strong, in my understanding,00:15:51
they will not be very effective and00:15:54
Lukashenko is much more sensitive to him than the00:15:57
loss of the opportunity00:15:59
to attract big money, loans00:16:01
from the West, than these sanctions00:16:04
pressures, but many are discussing it00:16:07
live in interviews the topic of00:16:09
how the Kremlin will support00:16:11
Lukashenko with debt, is this beneficial for the Kremlin? Well,00:16:13
from your words it follows that the lower00:16:16
the economy of Belarus falls now, the00:16:18
more profitable it is for Putin economically, you00:16:22
know, I didn’t omit it, so Lukashenko and00:16:25
Belarus for Putin are a00:16:28
suitcase without a handle, but with On the one hand, I do00:16:32
n’t want to spend these 35 billion00:16:35
dollars a year there to support Belarus, on00:16:39
the other hand, this is not God knows what kind of00:16:41
money for the Russian economy for the00:16:42
Russian budget, you00:16:44
need to understand what the00:16:46
Russian budget is and how much 30000:16:49
billion dollars is worth, well, than one00:16:50
percent is needed this is called rounding00:16:53
in the Ministry of Finance, I don’t know, one percent of00:16:56
Russian exports is less than one00:16:58
percent of Russian exports, well, that is,00:16:59
in general, this is not a catastrophic00:17:02
burden on the Russian budget, but on the other00:17:04
hand, Putin is00:17:06
categorically interested in00:17:08
maintaining political control or00:17:10
strong political influence in Belarus00:17:12
although it happens because of these two military bases00:17:14
yes because no for from his point of view00:17:17
again his vision of the world the need for00:17:19
defense is a critical00:17:21
infrastructure facility just like you for him the00:17:23
military base in Sevastopol was a critical object00:17:25
and in the same way for him00:17:27
critical even more critical00:17:29
objects, in fact, they are much00:17:31
more important, much more00:17:33
important than Sevastopol, and military bases00:17:35
in Belarus, so this is a payment for00:17:38
loyalty for political loyalty00:17:40
to Lukashenko so that00:17:42
nothing happens to these objects, again00:17:45
Putin for Putin, Belarus and Ukraine,00:17:48
by the way, this a buffer between Russia is necessary, and it’s00:17:52
no coincidence that the museum again returns00:17:55
to this statement of his, even approaching,00:17:58
we want, as he says, yes, so that she would00:18:00
issue legal guarantees not to00:18:02
approach the border in Russia, that is, for00:18:04
him, the disappearance of Belarus as an00:18:05
independent state is what kind of00:18:07
building is the way out on the direct line00:18:08
of contact with NATO,00:18:10
China is too risky a task for him,00:18:13
and it seems to me that they are ready to support the00:18:17
Belarusians with such not very big money, or the Koshenko regime there,00:18:20
or after Lukashenko, I think00:18:22
that Putin will negotiate with any00:18:24
other president of Belarus with his favorite00:18:26
government Well, at a minimum, about00:18:28
neutral to00:18:31
northern status, then two, how soon can he00:18:34
take on some kind of force and how much00:18:36
Belarus will suffer from this, and00:18:38
does this mean that we again return to the00:18:41
previous question, that Lukashenko00:18:43
will again be even more dependent on Russia, but00:18:46
you know even more when you depend one hundred00:18:47
percent, well, it’s not monetary, maybe one00:18:50
hundred and two percent depends, well,00:18:52
probably yes,00:18:54
theoretically, the launch of Nord Stream 200:18:57
could completely stop the transit of gas00:18:58
through Belarus to Poland, well, in00:19:01
fact, we saw this picture in November00:19:03
already in There were several days in the month of November00:19:05
when there was a00:19:07
gas accident00:19:10
there, a strange story because from under the00:19:14
data of Gazprom through Belarus the gas00:19:16
was pumped to Poland, it came but from00:19:19
Poland to Germany it no longer went, that is,00:19:20
apparently the volumes of gas were so detailed00:19:22
that Poland00:19:24
already bought gas from Germany it’s not needed, and there’s loading, I00:19:28
looked at the statistics, we talk a lot00:19:31
about the fact that the Ukrainian gas transportation00:19:32
system suffers from the fact that Gazprom00:19:35
pumps little gas,00:19:36
pumping gas through Ukraine is low to00:19:39
stable, but all the drops down to00:19:42
zero, they happen, sat and last00:19:43
year through Belarus on therefore, of course, the00:19:46
launch of Nord Stream 2 can be00:19:48
stopped altogether at any moment until00:19:51
gas transit through Belarus is stopped00:19:53
again, the money is probably not very00:19:55
big, well, it will be sensitive, it00:19:58
will be sensitive, and the loss of00:19:59
jobs and the loss of a stable flow, and00:20:01
then the most important thing is that the gas transportation00:20:03
system in addition that it pumps the gas00:20:06
needed and from east to west00:20:09
it also provides it in the same way as Ukraine,00:20:11
this is a huge problem for the national00:20:13
economy, that is, in addition to the00:20:15
gas pressure there so that it00:20:17
diverges throughout the country, and it00:20:20
is clear that Putin will not cut off the supply of00:20:23
gas to in the interests of Belarus, well,00:20:25
some technological restrictions on the00:20:27
operation of the gas transportation system00:20:29
will arise, we’ll see, we’ll have to reduce it,00:20:30
compress it, and so on, but how realistic is it00:20:33
that Poland will completely refuse00:20:35
Russian gas and conclude an agreement00:20:38
with us, the catcher is now saying that nothing is impossible in the world,00:20:40
and00:20:42
theoretically everything is possible you can probably00:20:46
conclude long-term contracts with00:20:49
Norway for the supply of gas to Poland,00:20:51
the question of price is this,00:20:55
it may just be more expensive, it00:20:58
may just be more expensive, I’m again children,00:21:00
as in the last twenty years, generally00:21:03
speaking, the00:21:05
most serious structural snakes have occurred in the European gas market,00:21:07
that is, there are still 20 years ago there was a pipe00:21:10
from the east to and where it came to there00:21:12
was a pipe there from the northwest00:21:15
from Norway where it came to came there00:21:17
were not very large capacities there for00:21:19
receiving liquefied gas and they were00:21:21
limited in distribution now00:21:23
after the gas crisis of 200600:21:26
when for the sake of Putin blocked the pipe to00:21:28
Europe, the euro built a large number of00:21:30
interconnectors of gas pipelines that00:21:32
connect this entire system and today in00:21:35
Europe you can practically pump gas in00:21:36
any direction from any point to00:21:38
another and there the European Commission00:21:40
says that now there is no such threat00:21:42
then sixth in the tenth year when00:21:44
what -parts of Europe will begin to freeze00:21:46
if Russia stops supplying gas before there00:21:48
will be problems, but in principle almost00:21:50
all of Europe will again have gas00:21:53
coming there, that is, we can, so we as the00:21:54
European Union and gas managers sell gas,00:21:57
we can deliver gas to any point in Europe00:21:59
before, so it’s not The question is whether00:22:02
Poland can purchase from Norway if Norway00:22:05
can end some of its00:22:08
old contracts and redirect gas to conclude a00:22:11
contract with Poland, well, probably yes,00:22:13
as far as I understand in Norway, also00:22:16
what is the production in Holland in general there, production in00:22:18
Holland is simply quickly reduced to00:22:20
how much in Norway I understand that gas production is00:22:21
not growing now if economically there are00:22:25
such opportunities, there is no need for other00:22:27
countries00:22:29
to completely stop00:22:31
contacts with Russia, which Germany00:22:36
has started and why do you understand, you need to00:22:39
understand well that Poland has a certain layer of00:22:42
political motivation for stopping00:22:45
imports gas from Russia is a reduction in00:22:49
dependence,00:22:50
well, that is, the position of Poland is the historical00:22:51
position of Poland that00:22:54
Russia Poland Russia threatens Polish00:22:56
independence that00:22:58
Russia is a threat to the nominee for the00:23:01
last three hundred years this threat00:23:04
has materialized many times, then accordingly00:23:06
Poland00:23:07
Poland is ready to pay some price00:23:11
to reduce its dependence on00:23:12
Russia, including dependence in00:23:15
terms of gas supplies, and where does Germany have a00:23:17
different position? Germany is not afraid of00:23:21
Russian political aggression; Germany00:23:24
is ready to be corrupt; and for00:23:26
Nord Stream 2, which gives Germany00:23:30
two and a half billion euros in00:23:31
savings per year, it is ready to spit00:23:34
she is ready for the political unity of the European Union, she is00:23:37
ready for the interests of her neighbors,00:23:39
why should Germany refuse00:23:42
Russian gas? There is cheaper, then00:23:44
Putin built a pipe for his own money, that00:23:46
is, we conquer attracts generally got it00:23:48
for free and he offers us a cash register for00:23:50
which we will save why we00:23:52
need to refuse The Germans, they are like this00:23:54
date, I think about it, so00:23:57
find out how to believe that the whole of00:24:01
Europe can refuse Russian00:24:02
gas, but it’s probably impossible there,00:24:04
Gazprom accounts for 35 percent of the00:24:06
European gas market before replacing it with00:24:09
anything today. How do you feel about the00:24:12
condemnation of the Kremlin and the fact that00:24:15
the Kremlin is supposedly participated in the migration crisis00:24:18
and Lukashenko actually said recently that not00:24:20
only Russians but also Chechens are also involved in this,00:24:24
these as I believe that the00:24:27
migration crisis on the border of00:24:30
Belarus of the European Union is of course a00:24:32
man-made crisis, yes of course00:24:35
how is it if the stars light up, it means00:24:37
someone needs it and so it is clear that if00:24:40
suddenly such a channel for the transit of00:24:43
refugees from problem countries to the European Union arose00:24:47
and we are in Belarus, well, someone developed these routes00:24:50
as I have not seen evidence00:24:52
and I cannot confidently say that the Kremlin00:24:54
advised on it there too, but I think that the Kremlin00:24:59
looked at these approvingly the00:25:02
fruits of the Kremlin’s policy, as we have00:25:04
already said, is to00:25:06
put a spoke in the wheels to cause00:25:10
destabilization, that is, in fact,00:25:12
in relation to Ukraine, in00:25:14
relation to Europe, in relation to America,00:25:16
but the main task of the Kremlin is to create00:25:19
political tension00:25:21
to destabilize the situation in reality in fact00:25:23
there, well, you know, like a signature handwriting00:25:26
here from here from here from Putin John here from he is not a00:25:28
chess player he doesn’t know how to play long games there00:25:30
and in someone else’s game the most important thing is that you00:25:32
took on an opponent and you need to throw him off00:25:34
balance in order to quickly carry out00:25:35
some kind of trick that’s all foreign policy00:25:37
Kremlin policy and you throw your opponent00:25:39
out of balance, it’s clear that well, there was a00:25:41
migration crisis there a few years00:25:43
ago when Syrian refugees there in00:25:45
the millions were coming through Turkey, the machine00:25:46
directly says in Turkey they gave billions,00:25:49
give me up to bent over once you00:25:52
did it, and there are three several years00:25:56
ago there the Kremlin said the Kremlin00:25:57
propaganda said that there are refugees00:26:00
there, dissolving that political00:26:02
identity of Europe there will generally cause00:26:04
a nightmare, and now we are these poor00:26:06
unfortunate people, they are harsh there, these00:26:08
tough ones and the Polish border guards almost00:26:11
kill them with a flamethrower, that is, it is00:26:13
obvious that this is how well, at00:26:16
least the Kremlin is using all this00:26:17
for its propaganda, well, it means apparently00:26:20
he was well prepared for this, I think I know00:26:22
that at the border I will now go once to the00:26:24
Polish border, there are huge queues00:26:26
of trucks, mostly Russian00:26:28
carriers,00:26:29
now on holidays there are much more of them how is00:26:33
this being strongly reflected, is it already or00:26:35
will be reflected in the distant future,00:26:37
such interruptions in supplies, despite all the00:26:41
importance of these road transports, you00:26:43
need to understand well that there is no such kind of ground, I’m00:26:45
glad that you will find out there,00:26:47
relatively speaking, there are 50 percent of the00:26:49
Russian market, this is some00:26:50
specific product item being carried out00:26:52
only on the forum and just along this00:26:54
road00:26:55
on the Russian market in the consumer00:26:58
market, approximately 50 percent in monetary00:27:01
terms are imported goods and there it all00:27:04
starts with this cheese, milk, bananas and00:27:06
ending with not me, electronics, equipment,00:27:08
etc., and failures in these supplies, failures in00:27:12
logistics, they are in the whole world is not00:27:15
angered by the shortage of goods and rising prices, but00:27:18
in Russia inflation is growing, it00:27:21
is obvious that based on the results of 21 years, but it is00:27:24
already off the charts for eight percent,00:27:26
to say if there is any influence here,00:27:29
this stop of Belarusian transit,00:27:31
I think that it is hardly visible, yes00:27:34
because well, if the trucks there started00:27:36
to slow down two or three weeks ago, well,00:27:39
it’s unlikely that this has already had an impact on the00:27:41
consumer market there, question 10,00:27:43
the technical chains of work are a little longer, but00:27:45
there all three weeks ahead New Year00:27:47
holidays gifts, it’s quite likely that00:27:49
this could affect the new one again well,00:27:51
inflation there will not be 8.3 8.5 percent,00:27:55
you and I won’t even know the00:27:58
reasons for this, so how will it affect it, yes00:28:00
it will be catastrophic, most likely00:28:03
no, I looked at your report, you talked00:28:06
about the new Belarus, that when carrying out00:28:09
economic reforms, what mistakes00:28:11
will not be allowed in the new Belarus It’s clear that00:28:14
we made a huge report out of it, we00:28:15
won’t tell our viewers now, but here are00:28:17
some specific theses to00:28:19
talk about and so as not to repeat the fate of the00:28:21
90s, what is being discussed there, I think that the discussion was about00:28:24
the following: that today the economy of00:28:28
Belarus is well, as Belarus is not until now It has00:28:32
not yet passed this complete transit from a00:28:34
planned economy to a market economy,00:28:36
this transition00:28:39
provides for freedom of price, freedom of00:28:41
the exchange rate, that is, a market00:28:42
economy, it must get leverage, this is00:28:45
my tool and bring itself into00:28:46
balance, today the Belarusian economy00:28:49
is in a clearly unbalanced00:28:52
state because it receives00:28:53
constant supply from Russia, but these00:28:57
three-five billion dollars a year00:28:58
allow the Belarusian economy to00:29:00
create some kind of artificial price system,00:29:03
if Russian support runs out00:29:05
at home, Belarusian imports collapse, the00:29:08
consumer market is disrupted, the exchange00:29:10
rate of the Belarusian ruble collapses, and so on, it’s00:29:13
unclear what’s happening with the00:29:14
banking system and this part00:29:17
called macroeconomic00:29:18
stabilization before the experience of the 90s suggests that it00:29:22
will quickly await him, therefore, in my00:29:24
opinion, the key task there in the00:29:26
Belarusian economy is a clear00:29:30
understanding that there is that stage of reforms,00:29:32
those tools that must work00:29:34
quickly, that is, one cannot count on the fact00:29:36
that there is Putin Russia, it doesn’t matter who00:29:39
will be there, that we will build our own00:29:41
macroeconomic structure that00:29:42
we will have someone who will help you, no one00:29:44
will help you, based on the fact that you are00:29:46
starting with a clean slate, and the00:29:49
worst thing you can try to do is00:29:51
to hold on to external prices for00:29:53
sensitivity to the stage nothing will00:29:54
happen the same Marshall plan and this,00:29:58
listen to the Marshall plan it’s absolutely00:30:00
to find a temple and in Russia they also believed00:30:02
in the Marshall plan they also expected00:30:04
to receive some kind of big help from the00:30:06
West but promising does not mean getting married yes00:30:09
and as a result, there the West, for various00:30:12
reasons, decided not to help Russia, well00:30:15
then, yes, you gave some small00:30:17
money that allowed, as they say,00:30:18
to avoid a more difficult development of the situation,00:30:21
but in principle, Poland did not receive any significant00:30:23
economic support from Russia at the00:30:25
initial stage of its reforms Will00:30:27
Belarus be able to00:30:30
come to an agreement for these00:30:32
hypothetical situations? It all depends on00:30:33
who will act as a00:30:35
negotiator on Belarus’s side. It’s one thing if the00:30:37
democratically00:30:40
elected president with liberal00:30:41
views is not familiar with pro-European ones, and another00:30:43
thing if some kind of pro-Kremlin politician comes instead of Lukashenko.00:30:47
will tell me, and00:30:49
now you and I can only guess, we are00:30:52
in a wild task in general, but if00:30:54
it doesn’t matter again from the political00:30:57
orientation, I will drown in this, the leader of00:31:00
Belarus, and it seems to me that the main00:31:02
task is to understand that there are reforms00:31:04
that need to be done quickly, yes there are00:31:06
the reforms that need to be done, well, that’s00:31:10
where the modern economy is, it shows00:31:12
that the state-run economy there is00:31:15
working poorly,00:31:17
it’s less efficient, you gave an order like00:31:20
everyone took the lead, in fact, the00:31:22
number doesn’t work like that,00:31:24
some shrinkage begins there, ut Russians as a result00:31:26
all decisions are made based not00:31:29
on economic feasibility, on something00:31:31
else, therefore you need to00:31:33
understand that in Belarus there is a very00:31:35
large share of the public sector and this is somehow00:31:38
necessary, you want it, that is, this is how to do00:31:40
privatization through what00:31:43
tools and in what00:31:45
sequence who will be there there is00:31:47
an opportunity will not be able to00:31:48
buy, let Russian capital in, don’t00:31:51
let in Russian capital, don’t let in00:31:52
German capital, don’t let in these are00:31:55
questions that you would need to have an00:31:57
answer to and in advance it’s always like00:31:59
some kind of panacea or it doesn’t always00:32:01
work, I don’t know any a00:32:05
successfully developed economy with high00:32:07
growth rates in Penza, which would rely00:32:09
on state property, that is,00:32:11
it is clear that it exists there and in France, in00:32:13
America, there is a bank at some00:32:15
crisis moment that nationalized the banks,00:32:18
even that there, this railroad,00:32:20
amtrak, it shares gas with you the state00:32:22
is in control, but practice00:32:24
shows that private business always00:32:26
makes more effective decisions; the00:32:28
economy, often relying on00:32:30
initiative, works better, you can leave the00:32:32
state canon where you can, but00:32:34
then the growth rate of the Belarusian economy00:32:37
there, the world one, will grow three and a half00:32:39
dollars, which will grow three, that00:32:41
suits you if it’s worth it please no00:32:42
questions if you want seven percent00:32:45
seven percent you can’t have this00:32:47
economic growth if you don’t have an00:32:49
influx of foreign direct investment from00:32:51
it money this technology this human00:32:54
management this is in connection with foreign00:32:57
markets and then you ask the00:32:59
Germans the Poles the Czechs and you want there here the00:33:02
state forearm just give00:33:04
money yes no of course I’ll decide on we give00:33:06
money until 9 we give money there in general you00:33:08
want to manage the processes yes we want00:33:11
look so that the money technology works00:33:12
so that all this can be00:33:14
used effectively then you get privatization and it00:33:16
gives something to someone you give up00:33:18
control as if and then you go from three00:33:21
percent of growth to seven00:33:22
percent of growth, so you decide00:33:24
first, either it is important for you that00:33:26
the state then but then the price is 300:33:30
percent or for the possibilities of interest00:33:32
and then the state does not work out the course of00:33:35
Belarus free after the change of power00:33:38
is the European Union worth it Belarus can join the00:33:41
union or Belarus can itself00:33:43
be quite independently a00:33:45
democratic country and develop to00:33:47
earn money without the European Union, look,00:33:50
as I said, even that is the question of00:33:53
economic geography,00:33:54
Belarus is one way or another it is squeezed by the00:33:57
European Union on the one hand, Russia on the other00:33:59
hand can be treated differently there00:34:03
economic potential when comparing, but00:34:05
nevertheless, on the one hand, there is a powerful00:34:07
economic bloc on the other hand, a00:34:08
fairly large economic holding,00:34:10
but at least several times larger than00:34:12
Belarus, and00:34:13
it is clear that, but ideally, Belarus00:34:17
should have good relations with both of them,00:34:18
that is it should be like an00:34:21
economy sandwiched between two, but00:34:24
pretend that no one exists on the right or on the left,00:34:26
and we’ll just00:34:28
fly in the cloud in the cloud economy, and00:34:30
we’ll live there on our own, so it won’t00:34:32
work. I don’t really like the idea of00:34:34
joining the European Union. I said this to00:34:36
my colleagues in Ukraine, where I traveled a lot,00:34:38
let me think that the goal of00:34:41
joining the European Union is wrong and00:34:43
because the European Union, unfortunately, has become00:34:45
such a large bureaucratic structure,00:34:47
decisions in which decisions are often delayed and00:34:50
decisions are made by00:34:52
consensus, which means that it is not00:34:54
always beneficial for you but having said this, Igor,00:34:56
wait over there, it00:35:00
is important for Ukraine and Belarus not to be a member of the European Union,00:35:02
but it is important to have access to the markets of the European Union,00:35:05
and for this there are other forms, for example,00:35:08
there is a European Economic00:35:09
Association, and where does Switzerland and Norway belong there,00:35:11
please, you can just about go00:35:14
along this path, that is you align00:35:16
legislation economic freedom00:35:18
movement of labor capital work00:35:20
goods there but at the same time you are a park you are not a00:35:22
bunch of you do not have to00:35:24
sign all the agreements you are not00:35:26
obliged to participate in the development of00:35:29
delays there yes you do not get access to the00:35:31
European budget new ones bear a00:35:34
bureaucratic burden that00:35:36
forces about your farmers,00:35:38
do something according to European rules, a guest00:35:40
live according to his own rules, that’s why I would00:35:42
say that the pilot for Belarus,00:35:45
access to the European market is very important,00:35:47
but it can be obtained without joining the00:35:50
European Union, here’s the last question, you are, of course, an00:35:52
economist, but I’m interested in yours00:35:53
point of view, you have already said that it00:35:55
is impossible to overcome the regime with sanctions, the course of00:35:58
action of the democratic forces of Belarus,00:36:01
unfortunately, is aimed at putting pressure on00:36:03
economic or sanctions or there are00:36:05
strikes that are not yet working, people00:36:08
do not go on strike, that is,00:36:11
there is a feeling that we are kind of00:36:13
driven into a corner and00:36:14
and lost or do you still think that00:36:17
two Russians have a chance and everyone says00:36:19
that with a chance only forceful methods were00:36:21
discussed yesterday on the forum, but00:36:23
yours I had a very big00:36:25
discussion on this topic on the form, it’s true, and00:36:28
I liked the theses now I00:36:31
won’t remember, someone said that00:36:33
the revolution comes from below, before the00:36:36
revolution there is always a movement from below and an00:36:38
attempt to bring about rain, not in Russia, not00:36:42
in Belarus, there are no tools and a00:36:45
legislative peaceful change of power, that00:36:48
is, it is impossible to win elections not from00:36:49
Lukashenko not from Putin, that’s all there,00:36:51
the legislation is written like this and the practice00:36:54
in holding elections and summing up the results is00:36:56
still building, you can win elections,00:36:58
it’s impossible at first they simply won’t let you in,00:37:01
and even if a random person gets00:37:03
to choose from and then the results00:37:04
are falsified, that is, this path of changing00:37:06
power immediately goes the second way00:37:09
the dictionary has an armed uprising, well,00:37:12
I don’t yet remember a single case in previously00:37:15
quite developed countries, but in00:37:17
African countries in the 60s and 70s, a00:37:19
captain could come and demolish the regime00:37:23
headed by a colonel, then a00:37:24
lieutenant would come, and then a sergeant would come,00:37:26
trial corporal and then home does00:37:28
n’t work like that now, and it’s clear that with a00:37:29
modern state,00:37:31
he can’t cope with such an uprising and he can’t cope alone. Then00:37:34
the question arises: what is a00:37:37
revolution and currency, a movement from below, as the00:37:39
classic00:37:40
Vladimir Lenin said, when the top people don’t want the husband,00:37:42
they don’t want the bottom people In Belarus, this00:37:45
situation arose in August of the twentieth00:37:46
year and when you had a mass00:37:49
movement from below that the lower classes did not want, people00:37:51
did not refuse to live like this, but the problem00:37:54
in Belarus was that the00:37:56
political elite were at the top and well, like00:37:59
resistance or opposition, they were not00:38:01
ready and Belarusian politicians were not were able to00:38:04
take advantage of this opportunity00:38:06
to create artificially it is impossible there is no00:38:08
such thing that there are no chances, but00:38:10
practice shows that chances00:38:12
return in Belarus, they come there with a00:38:14
cycle of ten years to00:38:17
say that it will happen in 1000:38:19
years, I cannot promise to say that this will not00:38:22
happen I can’t promise before either, but00:38:24
again I don’t believe that pressure from00:38:28
the West, economic sanctions,00:38:31
will lead to a change in the political regime,00:38:32
unfortunately, well, it doesn’t work that way, and that’s exactly00:38:35
the recipe, it’s actually general, yes00:38:37
it’s working with electoral work with the00:38:40
population convey your point of view00:38:41
to explain that changes in the life of the country are00:38:44
necessary and at some point it will00:38:47
definitely break through because in00:38:49
Belarus and in Russia the population is00:38:52
quite competent but understands very well00:38:54
yes, this is this fig in your pocket00:38:56
it is growing and I write it is called simply00:38:59
must something will happen in Belarus00:39:02
happened in the summer of 1920 someday00:39:04
it will break through again to say that you can00:39:06
always live like this, it’s definitely impossible unfortunately00:39:10
you know this game is the politics of this this is a00:39:12
100 York distance race you don’t00:39:14
always know what its size is from00:39:17
maybe 10 kilometers and maybe00:39:19
much more, in general, we are waiting for the next00:39:22
mistakes00:39:23
that people shout, you know, these are00:39:26
active people who have left, you know, here are the00:39:28
wrong phrases, we are waiting for Lukashenko’s mistakes,00:39:31
his whole policy is a mistake, just like00:39:33
Putin’s that Putin that Lukashenko they are00:39:36
victims in the future of the country before this It00:39:39
’s a big mistake that a politician who just00:39:41
maybe doesn’t think about what00:39:43
will happen after us, even a flood, that one or the00:39:46
other, the whole policy is wrong, the question is00:39:48
at what point a00:39:50
significant part of the population a significant00:39:52
part of the ordinary population there is quite00:39:55
also called like this someone of the00:39:57
deep people and how this is00:39:59
what they say in Russia until they understand that we are tired of it,00:40:02
we can’t do this anymore, we don’t00:40:05
want it anymore, and it doesn’t depend there, no,00:40:08
they’ll point to Lukashenko, the mod didn’t do anything for this,00:40:10
this one there is like a haqq in Tunisia, and00:40:14
what kind of copper small shopkeepers are they?00:40:17
lights up due to the fact that they got00:40:20
these extortions from the local police,00:40:22
no one knows what will cause it, well,00:40:25
that’s it, I’m back again to point out that00:40:27
she has a whole policy mistake, thank you00:40:29
very much for the meeting, it was very interesting00:40:31
to talk, richer for all of us Russians in00:40:33
Belarus, good luckDescription:
Как Путин использует Беларусь и Украину, чтобы держать Запад в напряжении? Почему санкции не способны убить режим? Кто на самом деле замешан в миграционном кризисе и стоит ли в будущем после смены власти на демократическую вступать в Евросоюз или достаточно будет просто иметь доступ на их рынок? Обо всём этом смотрите в большом интервью с российским экономистом Сергеем Алексашенко. 00:00 Главные тезисы интервью 01:14 Подписание интеграционных карт — это фикция или жест в сторону Запада? 03:59 Зачем Путин наращивает военное присутствие в Беларуси? 06:21 Почему Путин ведёт диалог с Западом на языке агрессии? 11:29 Способны ли санкции уничтожить беларусский режим и страдает ли от них Путин? 18:46 Как пострадает Беларусь от запуска «Северного потока-2»? 20:40 Способна ли Польша полностью отказаться от российского газа? 24:24 Кто замешан в миграционном кризисе на границе Беларуси и ЕС? 26:42 Как закрытие пункта погранконтроля на беларусско-польской границе скажется на российской экономике? 28:23 Почему новая Беларусь в период экономических реформ рискует повторить судьбу России в 90-х? 29:58 План Маршалла поможет? 32:03 Работает ли приватизация? 33:49 Способна ли Беларусь в будущем просуществовать без вступления в Евросоюз? 36:25 Смогут ли беларусы избавиться от режима мирным способом? НОВОЕ НА МАЛАНКЕ: Новый выпуск новостей (Мигранты возвращаются домой / Инцидент в ивацевичской колонии / Россию отключат от SWIFT): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZCpqgiyXWo Новый выпуск новостей регионов (Антисанкционные схемы / Беловежская пуща осудила поляков / Деда Мороза переоденут в партизана): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vC3YZmHpawY Вброс-Опрос с создателем канала "Усы Лукашенко" Сергеем Беспаловым: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taTbCBtxOZE Николай Халезин о новых санкциях и перспективах режима: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjqWY9-VEw0 Сооснователь фонда BYSOL Андрей Стрижак отвечает на вопросы о Беларуси (Как бежать из Беларуси / Заочные суды / Помощь уволенным): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opCDyWUtHGU Задать свой вопрос вы можете в комментариях к видео или прислать в наш Telegram-бот @Malanka_inbox_bot НАШ НОВЫЙ КАНАЛ МАЛАНКА LIVE: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCltb51YP8DB3L5XRq6E4TLw ТЕКСТОВАЯ ВЕРСИЯ МАЛАНКИ Наш сайт - https://zubr.media/ ПОДДЕРЖИ ПОЛИТЗАКЛЮЧЕННЫХ Найти и поддержать политзаключенных: https://politzek.me/ Помоги собрать посылку политзаключенному: https://ru.stranafund.org/blog/fund/pomosch-politzakluchenim Сайт помощи политзаключенным: https://dissidentby.com/ Написать политзаключенным: https://vkletochku.org/ ПОДДЕРЖИ МАЛАНКУ Вы можете помочь команде Маланки донатами: https://getdonate.org/en/campaign/196 Сбор для Маланки на платформе Digital Solidarity: https://app.digitalsolidarity.io/fundraisers/947 Поддержка гражданского телевидения Маланка Медиа на BYSOL: https://www.bysol.org/ru/initiatives/malanka/ НЕ ЗАБУДЬ ПОДПИСАТЬСЯ Маланка в Tik Tok https://vm.tiktok.com/ZM8qhewbb/ Наша группа в Одноклассниках https://ok.ru/group/59911877820542 Наша группа Вконтакте https://vk.com/public203292097 Подписывайтесь на телеграм Маланки https://t.me/malanka Посмотрите, что у нас в Инсте https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Наша страница в Facebook https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Читайте нас в Твиттере https://twitter.com/MalankaMedia Наше сообщество в Viber: https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQB9Z2ko7lF9ak2g74h0lNV0iT3Dr7y0qAjUk4tDHAY/64e1AGGQZ03C5MSq0KIs
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