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00:00:01

investment futures channel, this is our weekly

00:00:03

Saturday macro review, we are summing up the results of

00:00:06

the seven-day period, we are trying to highlight the main

00:00:08

trends and look a little ahead,

00:00:16

well, friends, as we see, the first ten days of

00:00:18

April turned out to be quite positive

00:00:20

for the American stock market, the

00:00:23

snp 500 broad market index has updated its

00:00:25

historical highs,

00:00:26

and at the same time, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index

00:00:29

made a rather sharp turn and

00:00:31

gained more than six percent in a week,

00:00:33

so both the

00:00:35

CIS 500 and the Dow Jones industrial index overtook us in terms of growth dynamics. This

00:00:38

is a rather interesting point,

00:00:41

which I suggest you pay attention to; the

00:00:43

reason for the growth was not only

00:00:45

voiced plans have cost two trillion

00:00:48

dollars to modernize the infrastructure of

00:00:50

the United States, but also positive macro data

00:00:53

on the economy that we have seen, an

00:00:56

increase in business activity, an increase in

00:00:58

employment in the manufacturing sector and in the

00:01:00

service sector

00:01:01

suddenly reached record levels over the

00:01:04

past 20 years,

00:01:06

that is, at the moment everything tells us

00:01:08

that the economy is recovering and

00:01:11

this gives confidence, of course, to

00:01:14

investors who work in the

00:01:16

stock market.

00:01:17

If we talk in more detail about sectors of

00:01:20

the economy, I see in the American

00:01:22

market a restoration of interest in shares of

00:01:24

gold producers,

00:01:26

Internet companies, companies that

00:01:28

produce software and

00:01:30

of course, semiconductors,

00:01:32

well, semiconductors are generally a very

00:01:34

hot topic in recent months, and over the past

00:01:36

week we have seen that these sectors that

00:01:39

I have listed have added about 4

00:01:41

percent. We have talked more than once about

00:01:43

global trends in the economy, and

00:01:45

such demand is of course due to

00:01:48

the development of new 5g 6g network technologies

00:01:51

Blockchain technology,

00:01:54

artificial intelligence, all this

00:01:55

allows us to increase the speed of

00:01:57

data transfer in our information world, and

00:02:00

of course this provokes demand for new

00:02:02

software,

00:02:03

semiconductors and Internet services, all

00:02:06

this, in principle, is quite logical, the trend has

00:02:08

not

00:02:09

gone anywhere, as we have already said in

00:02:11

turn There is also a growing demand for raw

00:02:14

materials that are used in the

00:02:15

production of chips and microcircuits, this is not

00:02:18

only copper, it is also precious

00:02:20

metals. By the way,

00:02:21

even in the comments you

00:02:23

wrote, many are surprised why, on expectations of

00:02:26

rising interest rates around the world,

00:02:28

copper prices are at their

00:02:31

historical highs and not they are going to

00:02:34

decline, while precious metals

00:02:36

were correcting, but they were happy with the

00:02:38

weak pace and over the past week

00:02:40

they showed quite a noticeable reversal,

00:02:43

so one of the reasons for such dynamics

00:02:46

lies precisely in global trends, you

00:02:49

need to understand the growth of the stock market, which was

00:02:52

facilitated by the stabilization of

00:02:54

yields on US government bonds

00:02:56

for the week of yield for 10-year 3 years

00:03:01

later they fell to the level of 166,

00:03:04

well, it’s not that they fell very much, but

00:03:07

nevertheless, for another market this is

00:03:09

really quite a significant

00:03:11

decline, which the whole world is now

00:03:12

very closely monitoring. The decline in

00:03:14

profitability is a plus for the stock market,

00:03:17

especially for those that are so high volatile

00:03:20

companies that are included in the

00:03:21

technological index of us, this is

00:03:23

reflected in the quotes,

00:03:24

friends, pay attention to this moment, the

00:03:26

growth of the stock market is accompanied by a

00:03:29

decrease in volatility, for example,

00:03:31

the main volatility index or the so-

00:03:34

called Vicks fear index on the

00:03:37

S&P 500 index is

00:03:38

now approaching the level of the beginning of

00:03:40

the pandemic

00:03:41

and it is very important that the downward trend

00:03:43

continues what does this mean on the one

00:03:46

hand it shows us that investors seem to be

00:03:48

confident in buying shares, but on the

00:03:51

other hand it also suggests

00:03:52

that investors are slightly ignoring risk factors

00:03:54

at the moment and which of

00:03:57

these components is more important probably

00:03:59

only time will tell We are approaching the

00:04:02

reporting season in the USA and what can we

00:04:04

expect from it? I will remind you that the historical

00:04:07

April is such a strong month for the

00:04:10

stock market because the new

00:04:11

reporting season for the company is approaching; they will

00:04:14

report for the first quarter of 21 and

00:04:16

market participants are starting to work on the

00:04:18

buy principle

00:04:20

sell on expectations and rumors based on facts,

00:04:22

although we must remember that of course any

00:04:25

report is a lottery and we

00:04:28

have already seen many cases when the stock price was similar to a

00:04:30

good report

00:04:31

and, on the contrary, grew on a weak one; this also needs to be taken into account

00:04:33

in general; a soft

00:04:36

monetary policy, of course,

00:04:37

allowed companies to restructure

00:04:40

debts and increase investments, while

00:04:42

developing investments in new

00:04:44

areas of business, companies are making full

00:04:46

use of cheap money. I

00:04:49

would like to clarify this point:

00:04:51

during the pandemic, weak companies left the market;

00:04:53

for example, in the

00:04:55

retail market, more than 50 companies went bankrupt

00:04:58

and this is the highest figure since

00:05:01

2009 and As a result, what happens is that

00:05:03

market share is freed up and stronger

00:05:06

companies begin to develop it, and

00:05:08

accordingly, the companies that survived

00:05:11

now have growing expenses for expanding their

00:05:13

staff and at the same time, their

00:05:16

profits are also growing from the fact that they are capturing an

00:05:18

increasing share of the market, and this is where we come from

00:05:21

and we see an increase in production

00:05:23

activity in a variety of sectors of the economy

00:05:26

and an increase in the level of employment, this is all

00:05:30

quite positive and in the next three

00:05:33

years, but in the upcoming reports on

00:05:36

companies, we can see, however, an

00:05:38

increase in the debt burden with an increase in profits

00:05:41

and a decrease in the main multipliers

00:05:43

because it takes time to this

00:05:46

invested money has finally begun to work

00:05:48

and is, as it were, reflected in the

00:05:50

company’s reporting, let’s see what will happen there in

00:05:53

practice, but you need to be prepared for the fact

00:05:55

that there, too, trouble may not show a

00:05:57

significant increase

00:05:58

and these contradictions, likely investors will not

00:06:01

accept you ambiguously and

00:06:04

whole sayings may follow

00:06:05

and go away but usually in May there is

00:06:09

simply such a spring and balancing of

00:06:11

portfolios during which they may consider

00:06:14

it expedient to fix part of the

00:06:17

profits that were already previously received,

00:06:20

leaving long-term ideas and the railing to

00:06:23

marry rather in some protective

00:06:26

segments of the stock market, as for the

00:06:28

high inflation expectations that

00:06:30

are associated with the

00:06:31

soft policy of the Federal Reserve

00:06:32

system, that is, news from the news,

00:06:35

we have here a statement from Jerome Paul,

00:06:37

who this Thursday once again reminded

00:06:39

investors that the regulator has

00:06:42

all the tools in its reserve to curb

00:06:44

higher inflation, and these tools

00:06:46

consist not only in increasing the

00:06:50

interest rate but this is really

00:06:52

so, we have already talked about the fact that in

00:06:56

the United States in the seventies they managed to overcome

00:06:58

high inflation and in fact, in the

00:07:00

field of monetary history and

00:07:02

stabilization policy of the Federal Reserve, there

00:07:04

really is a huge practical

00:07:05

experience and this experience is based on the actual

00:07:09

work of the Nobel laureate and

00:07:11

American scientist Milton Friedman I

00:07:13

think that many of you have heard this name

00:07:16

and therefore, according to the head of the Fed, the

00:07:18

central bank will react only if

00:07:21

it sees that inflation expectations

00:07:23

quote constantly and significantly exceed

00:07:27

the level with which we are comfortable, most

00:07:31

likely it will be a level above two

00:07:32

percent at which the effects are initially

00:07:34

aimed at us Next week

00:07:36

there will be macro data on the

00:07:38

US Consumer Price Index, the so-called

00:07:41

PC or itself and in English, the

00:07:44

consumer price index shows how the

00:07:45

average

00:07:47

cost of the consumer

00:07:49

basket has changed over a certain period; it includes prices for

00:07:52

food in housing clothing medical

00:07:54

care

00:07:55

transport entertainment education and a number

00:07:58

other services and now this index

00:08:01

is at the lowest levels in the

00:08:03

last 20 years, so

00:08:05

what is the final situation we have

00:08:07

in the markets at the beginning of the month

00:08:09

the yield on 10-year Treasury

00:08:11

bonds has decreased but is still

00:08:14

below the expected inflation rate is usually

00:08:17

above this level and this

00:08:19

means that the profitability is

00:08:21

correspondingly large, well, relatively

00:08:23

large, this is for the growth potential of the crafty market, the

00:08:26

s&p 500 index continues to update its

00:08:29

historical highs, and the technologically advanced ones, at the

00:08:32

same time, are gradually

00:08:35

approaching them, the Vicks fear index is

00:08:38

decreasing, this creates such a somewhat

00:08:41

contradictory situation because

00:08:43

reflect,

00:08:44

on the one hand, the confidence of investors

00:08:45

for economic recovery, but on the other

00:08:48

hand, it is that investors, as they say,

00:08:50

have completely lost fear and are ignoring

00:08:53

risk factors that can

00:08:54

negatively affect the market.

00:08:57

Macro data tells us about

00:08:59

economic recovery and, in combination with the

00:09:03

continuation of the loose monetary

00:09:05

policy of the Federal Reserve system and

00:09:08

many other central banks,

00:09:11

taking into account the fact that the volume of liquidity is

00:09:13

really huge now in the

00:09:14

US economy and financial system and without

00:09:17

packaging, in fact, they are now working on

00:09:19

expectations of buying the market at drawdowns and

00:09:21

pushing indices to historical peaks,

00:09:24

often without thinking about why

00:09:27

they do this simply based on the fact that a

00:09:29

good effect will come and if anything will

00:09:31

support us, and of course, all these arguments

00:09:34

indicate that in the coming week

00:09:37

volatility may continue and

00:09:39

decline further, there is a flow of

00:09:41

capital from the real estate sector and

00:09:44

industry to enter sectors now

00:09:46

such a micro trend before the

00:09:48

reporting season, investors probably just wo

00:09:50

n’t do or balance

00:09:51

portfolios in favor of protective assets, even

00:09:55

despite the high values of the

00:09:57

multipliers for some issuers,

00:10:00

this was such a small summary of

00:10:02

trends in the stock market, now

00:10:04

let’s talk about the commodity metal market, this is

00:10:06

also very interesting, you and I have already

00:10:08

We’ve talked about global trends in demand

00:10:10

for copper and precious metals, but here

00:10:12

another factor is added because

00:10:14

as more and more people are vaccinated,

00:10:16

as quarantine restrictions ease,

00:10:19

we see that economic ties

00:10:21

are being restored and GDP is growing, and this is all

00:10:25

simply inevitably reflected by the demand for

00:10:28

raw materials goods and, first of all, in the

00:10:30

demand for industrial metals, we

00:10:34

see that since the beginning of the year, copper prices

00:10:36

have already increased by more than 12 percent, aluminum

00:10:39

almost 11 percent, steel 20 percent

00:10:42

and they still remain at

00:10:44

historical highs and the reason here is

00:10:46

not only growth demand, but also in the shortage of

00:10:49

supply, for example,

00:10:51

data about the Institute of

00:10:54

Supply Management of the United States and the SNT,

00:10:56

called the Institute of Supply Management, tells us about this until supply chains and

00:10:58

production are restored, the deficit

00:11:00

will probably persist, but on Wednesday,

00:11:04

for example, it became known that the central

00:11:05

bank of Hungary increased gold reserves

00:11:08

three times from 2018, having purchased 63 tons of

00:11:12

yellow precious metal, the regulator

00:11:15

emphasized the quote the importance of the leaders of

00:11:18

owning gold in the current

00:11:21

economic and political conditions

00:11:23

because the presence of a significant amount of

00:11:26

gold in reserves allows you to increase

00:11:27

confidence in the country’s economy in all

00:11:30

economic aspects, this is a very important

00:11:33

point because in fact

00:11:34

the behavior central banks influence gold quotes as something

00:11:37

else,

00:11:38

well, besides, a

00:11:40

month ago there was news from the cb of Poland

00:11:43

that he wants to buy, so to speak,

00:11:44

buy 100 tons of gold, and in this

00:11:47

context, many investors are already

00:11:48

considering precious metals not only as

00:11:51

protective assets but also as growth In

00:11:53

history, the world has changed and in conditions of

00:11:56

limited resources, prices for

00:11:58

precious metals are rising. This

00:12:01

week, gold prices have

00:12:03

turned up a little after the decline that

00:12:05

was observed in August last year, and

00:12:07

in one week gold has increased in

00:12:10

price by about 4 percent. In

00:12:12

addition, there was interesting news. I already

00:12:14

voiced it in a news release about the

00:12:17

fact that now Asian countries in

00:12:20

which it is customary to keep their money in

00:12:23

gold jewelry are also starting to

00:12:25

increase the volume of gold imports, this

00:12:27

applies, for example, to India, China, and

00:12:29

so on about oil, it seems that over the

00:12:32

past week the amount of oil came -

00:12:35

its equilibrium price is traded in a

00:12:37

rather narrow range; for example,

00:12:40

we see 40 grade Brent oil in the

00:12:43

range of 60-65 dollars per barrel and

00:12:45

now we are approximately in the middle of this

00:12:47

range. In principle, there are strong news

00:12:49

after the decision of the guardianship; no increase in production has

00:12:52

been reported since May and the price consolidation is

00:12:55

quite satisfies all

00:12:56

interested parties,

00:12:59

next week the report of the

00:13:00

monitoring council of OPEC Plus will be released and

00:13:02

investors will be awaiting with great interest the

00:13:05

results of compliance with

00:13:07

the deal to what extent the parties

00:13:08

are doing this in a disciplined manner. By the way,

00:13:11

there have long been correlations in the market

00:13:13

between oil prices and the price

00:13:16

of copper; copper acts as a leading

00:13:18

indicator for oil and we should not

00:13:20

rule out continued growth in oil

00:13:22

prices as the

00:13:24

economy itself

00:13:26

recovers and demand for oil

00:13:28

increases; everyone remembers the forecasts for the

00:13:31

oil super cycle and so far we have

00:13:35

nothing to discredit these forecasts in any way,

00:13:36

now that Regarding

00:13:39

the Russian ruble, we see that the

00:13:41

Russian ruble remains under

00:13:42

pressure and

00:13:44

geopolitical sanctions risks are still at work, they

00:13:46

turned out to be somewhat stronger than

00:13:48

initially expected,

00:13:49

and now investors are of course worried about the

00:13:52

tense situation in the east of

00:13:54

Ukraine

00:13:55

against this background, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 78 rubles for the first time in 5

00:13:57

months media

00:14:00

Everyone immediately wrote about this, but

00:14:02

I note that it lasted no

00:14:04

more than an hour and by the end of the

00:14:07

day the dollar dropped to

00:14:09

7 and 7 and 2

00:14:11

after on Wednesday the Secretary of the

00:14:13

Security Council, Mr. Patrushev, said

00:14:16

that Russia would not interfere in

00:14:18

conflict in the Donbass the market will be a little

00:14:20

calm and the dollar has even gone below 77

00:14:24

rubles and the Russian indices closed in

00:14:26

positive territory on Thursday and Dmitry Kozak

00:14:30

said at a press conference that Russia

00:14:32

can defend the residents of Donbass

00:14:34

if it is forced to do this and

00:14:37

the dollar we we see that it was stormy after

00:14:39

that, but 1 still closed even lower

00:14:41

than the previous one, that is,

00:14:43

of course there is tension, but you also need

00:14:46

to understand how the market plays it out, and

00:14:48

of course there are a lot of questions at once as

00:14:50

soon as the dollar goes up,

00:14:52

everyone asks whether it’s worth buying

00:14:53

currency now, friends, first you need decide

00:14:56

why because if you just keep it

00:14:59

under your pillow just in case, it’s unlikely

00:15:01

because the price is already quite high,

00:15:03

let’s assume that the dollar has reached the important

00:15:05

psychological mark of 80 rubles and here you

00:15:08

need to understand that society may

00:15:10

begin to have a not very positive mood

00:15:12

about this and We have elections to

00:15:14

the State Duma ahead of us,

00:15:15

and therefore all and many analysts

00:15:17

suggest that

00:15:19

no one needs extra tension and most likely in such a

00:15:22

situation, as has happened more than once, the chain

00:15:24

will sell dollars from its reserves

00:15:25

in order to at

00:15:27

least strengthen the ruble a little while

00:15:30

increasing profitability the ten-year phase

00:15:32

continues and over the past week they

00:15:34

reached 7 and 3 and even a little

00:15:37

higher and updated the maximum

00:15:40

value of this year, while the goat

00:15:43

bond index has decreased by one and a half percent since March 31

00:15:46

and it continues to follow, but in

00:15:48

general, in line with the correction since May In

00:15:50

2020, of course, the

00:15:53

hawkish rhetoric of the Central Bank of

00:15:55

Russia and the subsequent decision to increase the

00:15:58

interest rate

00:15:59

also work not in favor of flash drives;

00:16:03

uncertainty with sanctions and

00:16:05

geopolitical risks because there are still

00:16:07

more questions than answers at the

00:16:10

moment, the regulator is clearly acting

00:16:12

proactively and is in the spotlight.

00:16:14

inflation expectations, I remind you that

00:16:17

for several years the Central Bank of Russia has already been pursuing a

00:16:19

policy of targeting inflation and for

00:16:21

this purpose all instruments are used from

00:16:24

sterilization of the money supply with

00:16:26

excess liquidity to raising the

00:16:29

interest rate, which is what we are actually

00:16:31

observing, and of course the increase in the rate

00:16:34

is reflected by an increase in profitability in the phase

00:16:37

and leads to a decrease the nominal

00:16:39

value of those bonds that have now

00:16:42

already been presented and which are available according to

00:16:45

tradition, here investors act

00:16:48

based on expectations and they of course

00:16:50

include a further increase in the rate in

00:16:53

their forecasts, of course, there

00:16:57

is a limit to the growth of yield in the phase, but you and I

00:16:59

cannot build on any exact

00:17:01

figures for In the market there are quite

00:17:03

simple mechanisms,

00:17:05

the laws of supply and demand, and it takes

00:17:08

time for investors to be attracted again by the

00:17:11

yields on the phase. Probably someday

00:17:13

such a moment may come if

00:17:17

we look at the

00:17:18

yields of government bonds by

00:17:21

country, then Russian aphasia looks,

00:17:23

by the way, they say quite attractively in the

00:17:25

general background and here it affects risk premium

00:17:29

despite the recovery in oil prices

00:17:32

and despite the extremely low

00:17:36

state debt, unfortunately no one knows how long this risk premium

00:17:38

will remain, and I

00:17:41

also can’t ignore

00:17:45

the auctions that the Ministry of Finance holds,

00:17:47

just recently it carried out the largest

00:17:49

placement in the phase since the beginning of

00:17:51

the pandemic, we already talked about this and

00:17:53

at the same time the Central Bank of Russia reported on the

00:17:55

maximum decrease in the number of

00:17:56

non-residents in the country's debts since the beginning of

00:17:59

the year, well, this can be interpreted in different ways,

00:18:01

someone may be happy about this, someone

00:18:03

may be upset, but the fact remains that the

00:18:06

office is similar to buyers and

00:18:08

continue to act namely the largest

00:18:10

Russian banks, and this means that the

00:18:12

current yields in the phase are

00:18:15

quite interesting for

00:18:16

institutional investors and sooner or

00:18:18

later, despite the sanctions risks,

00:18:21

it can be assumed that the yields in the

00:18:23

phase will also attract foreign

00:18:26

investors into Russian government

00:18:28

debt, but non-residents, meanwhile,

00:18:32

continue to sell while they are selling off Russian

00:18:34

bonds in anticipation of new sanctions, their

00:18:37

share eventually fell to the level of six years

00:18:39

ago. Last week they sold

00:18:42

bonds worth seventy-four and a

00:18:44

half billion rubles, and leaving

00:18:46

our market they are converting rubles into

00:18:48

dollars and euros, which also

00:18:50

boosts

00:18:52

quotes currency in relation to the ruble is

00:18:54

what we are seeing now.

00:18:55

As for the stock market, you need to understand

00:18:58

that it is inextricably linked with debt.

00:19:00

The investor pays attention to the

00:19:02

returns in the phase;

00:19:04

their growth is alarming and

00:19:06

active actions are not being taken on the market at the moment;

00:19:08

to continue growth,

00:19:11

you need confidence in that that

00:19:12

geopolitically, inflation risks

00:19:14

will fade into the background and that there

00:19:17

will be interest in the phase from

00:19:19

non-residents, but so far this is not happening.

00:19:21

I have already said that the situation

00:19:23

has worsened over the past few weeks and against this

00:19:26

background the EF index is in such a

00:19:28

rather long consolidation, but

00:19:30

essentially beginning of the year, these

00:19:32

consolidations last with a long-term

00:19:34

upward trend,

00:19:36

consultations in Yandex

00:19:37

are explained by the upcoming dividend

00:19:39

season for us in shares, which will begin in May

00:19:41

and will be systematically distributed until

00:19:44

the end of July.

00:19:46

Investors also need to understand that

00:19:50

blue chips will be among the first to pass

00:19:52

dividend cutoffs at Novatek and

00:19:54

Sberbank. the season will traditionally end with

00:19:57

Gazprom dividends, the expected dividend

00:20:00

yield is impressive at the moment and

00:20:03

fuels investor interest in

00:20:05

Russian shares because if we

00:20:07

compare us there with the average global

00:20:10

yield, then we really

00:20:11

are winning at the moment, we represent

00:20:13

one of the highest yields in

00:20:15

emerging markets dividends

00:20:17

at the same time with the weakening of the ruble exchange rate,

00:20:19

there is also a revaluation of assets

00:20:21

that are traded on the pipe and their

00:20:23

platforms and the favorites here are,

00:20:25

of course, the shares of exporting companies

00:20:27

that benefit from exchange rate differences

00:20:30

with stable oil and fairly expensive

00:20:32

metals, and these companies have

00:20:35

quite a large weight in Russian

00:20:37

indices and this should also provide them with

00:20:41

support, in previous reviews we

00:20:44

talked about the recorded inflows of

00:20:48

funds into funds that

00:20:50

invest in Russian stocks both at

00:20:53

the beginning of the year and, in fact,

00:20:55

continuing to the present moment,

00:20:57

the reasons we will repeat are the rise in prices for

00:21:00

commodities,

00:21:01

this high return on shares, the

00:21:03

undervaluation

00:21:04

of shares and for the country risk premium,

00:21:07

timely vaccination, which by the way,

00:21:09

many but objectively may

00:21:11

envy their vaccines, faster

00:21:14

recovery of economic growth rates, but

00:21:16

also some other factors,

00:21:18

this is all that betrayed the Russian

00:21:21

stock market, such a goldilocks effect, but

00:21:25

you need to understand that over the last year just

00:21:27

over the last week the situation

00:21:29

has changed a little because the

00:21:30

recorded net outflow for the first time in

00:21:33

a long time, we understand that in May the

00:21:35

dividend driver will go away, but the trigger

00:21:38

in the form of sanctions and geopolitical

00:21:40

risks may still remain and therefore

00:21:43

investors may still prefer to

00:21:44

exchange their dividends in dollars or

00:21:47

the euro, and at the same time, the question of profitability of

00:21:49

the museum may remain open for now and

00:21:51

remain in the sphere of interests of large

00:21:53

Russian banks, which are now buying them up on their

00:21:55

balance sheets, friends. As for

00:21:57

next week, let’s try

00:21:59

to prepare for it, it will be quite

00:22:01

eventful with macro data, so on

00:22:04

Tuesday

00:22:05

investors will look at the basic

00:22:08

consumer price index, which we

00:22:10

just discussed with you today, and if

00:22:13

it turns out to be higher than expected, then we can

00:22:16

expect a new jump in profitability. Quiet with the

00:22:19

US applications, which we

00:22:21

actually observed in mid-

00:22:23

March, and as we remember, this jump had a

00:22:25

negative impact in growth stocks

00:22:27

that are included in the Nasdaq index, it is as if

00:22:29

this situation would not repeat itself because,

00:22:31

but in general, everyone recognizes that inflation will

00:22:33

continue to rise. On Thursday, the

00:22:36

basic index of retail sales in the United States comes out.

00:22:39

Personal consumption expenditures account for

00:22:41

about 70 percent of the formation of GDP,

00:22:44

this is, as you understand, the main thing indicator of

00:22:46

economic recovery and,

00:22:47

accordingly, if there is an increase in retail

00:22:49

sales, that the indices may respond by

00:22:51

rising upwards. On Friday, data

00:22:55

on China's GDP and on the

00:22:57

consumer price index in the eurozone comes out,

00:22:59

and this is how you understand such key

00:23:02

states in the formation of world GDP

00:23:04

because China and Germany are among the top 5

00:23:07

world economies and, accordingly, we will

00:23:10

look at these data and the market

00:23:11

may react to them; no one can be

00:23:14

completely sure what will happen on the markets

00:23:16

tomorrow in general; a lot depends

00:23:19

on the rhetoric of the heads of state, on the heads of

00:23:21

central banks, who can

00:23:23

unexpectedly add some sparkle and

00:23:26

speed to events in the coming

00:23:28

week, we also need to be prepared for this,

00:23:31

but we just understand that investors do

00:23:34

not live for one week, they look far

00:23:36

ahead and trends for the restoration of

00:23:38

economic growth and such global

00:23:41

trends remain in force and are reflected, of

00:23:45

course, in the long-term positive

00:23:47

dynamics of all stock indices and so far,

00:23:50

we have no reason to believe

00:23:52

that this dynamic will suddenly stop abruptly

00:23:55

if the central bank does not intervene or

00:23:56

some swan does not fly to us yet,

00:23:59

so we, for our part, can

00:24:01

only assume what can happen in a

00:24:03

short period of time in a week and

00:24:05

that’s for now our base scenario

00:24:09

includes a decrease in volatility in indices and

00:24:10

commodities, stabilization of

00:24:12

yields on US goat applications and a

00:24:15

likely consolidation of indices

00:24:17

ahead of the reporting season and

00:24:20

directly a new season dividend on

00:24:22

shares, well, friends, that’s what I have

00:24:24

for you today, we all

00:24:26

tried a little of this today a more

00:24:28

detailed macro review, which

00:24:31

also included educational information, we try to

00:24:33

explain some

00:24:35

macro indicators so that you will be more

00:24:37

interested, absorb our information

00:24:41

so that it is more useful than just

00:24:43

listening to some incomprehensible terms

00:24:44

for many beginners, write in the

00:24:46

comments how do you like this format, how

00:24:48

useful is it? it

00:24:49

helps to form a vision of the overall macro

00:24:52

picture that influences the market,

00:24:54

well, like it, subscribe to the

00:24:55

channel and click on the bell if you were

00:24:58

interested, thank you, Kiryukh TNK and the

00:25:01

investment futures project team were with you, bye everyone and see you again

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