Download "Что делать с валютой и акциями на счетах / Сможет ли мировая финансовая система выйти из тупика?"
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FJJ3awzui6Zc%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
Please wait. We're preparing links for easy ad-free video watching and downloading.
Table of contents
Similar videos from our catalog
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FFHv2L91jwD0%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FmTsOcxG1a34%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FSh_OFWnp10A%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi_webp%252FbPDDVpszsTU%252Fmaxresdefault.webp&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FdLeaiAdmtiw%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi_webp%252FdyScKfJ2_1A%252Fmaxresdefault.webp&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi_webp%252Fjw3jO0gyrZU%252Fmaxresdefault.webp&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252Frj1XwyWYekg%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FyFO_I3_Yt-8%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252FwNgZTn4WGXA%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:01:54
Hello friends, this is the project Money Never Sleeps00:01:56
My name is Vasily Oleynik again today00:01:58
I'm working live today00:01:59
Friday is not Saturday here due to the fact that00:02:02
a huge amount of news came out00:02:04
yesterday until the market closed even00:02:07
in the evening we were waiting for many very important00:02:09
news move this issue from00:02:12
results of the week with forecasts for the future00:02:14
still a day later in order to weigh00:02:17
in general, put all this information into00:02:19
head so that there is some kind of puzzle after all00:02:21
because I understand the forecasts now00:02:24
doing a thankless task too much00:02:26
variables in the world precisely in the world Because00:02:29
that the situation in the world is gaining momentum00:02:32
negative scenario therefore00:02:34
based on all these variables I'm all00:02:37
I'll make bets anyway00:02:39
This is probably why you love voicing00:02:41
this show and this YouTube channel because00:02:45
Well, I don’t know, I think it’s better to have00:02:48
some kind of anyway look and his00:02:50
stick even if he turns out to be00:02:52
wrong But this is it Maybe00:02:55
so maybe it will work out honestly00:02:58
telling me this I don’t like it so much00:03:01
so I always have bets00:03:03
the positions that I will voice are not of course not00:03:06
I'm always right It's very00:03:07
It's always hard on the market00:03:09
right Yes but the look is always there Okay I00:03:13
I don't even know where to start because00:03:15
a bunch of news from around the world and America00:03:18
and of course probably the focus of attention00:03:21
after all, in my opinion, Europe and the bank00:03:24
England because well, these are colossal00:03:29
this week the bell rang then what in00:03:31
there has never been a story before00:03:35
of course yes Russian market separately00:03:36
I'll have to take it apart too. But I00:03:39
I still want to start this issue with00:03:41
analysis of the global situation00:03:44
world, it seems to me that she is the most00:03:47
still important for all investors Yes00:03:50
Despite the fact that many will soon not00:03:52
will be able to trade foreign shares Yes00:03:54
due to restrictive measures, but not00:03:57
less anyway00:03:58
The lion's share of Russians is still00:04:00
invest foreign assets or have00:04:03
that's why they are and in any case the whole world00:04:07
as a whole and if out of control00:04:11
something will come out00:04:14
out of control of the Central Bank00:04:16
some country will simply have a situation00:04:17
then this tsunami00:04:20
Well it just rolls around00:04:22
the globe therefore Of course even00:04:24
investing in the Russian stock market00:04:26
abstract yourself from what is happening00:04:28
this is absolutely stupid in the world00:04:30
look00:04:31
much wider and the situation is stronger00:04:34
worsens in the world of themes Perhaps it will be00:04:37
more positive maybe maybe00:04:40
this will be more positive for Russia00:04:42
because there are big stakes at stake00:04:45
are at stake00:04:46
the economy is their future, here it is00:04:51
it may be a difficult moment00:04:53
somehow strange to accept refusal00:04:56
measures to save economies therefore00:04:59
you have to keep track of everything. And of course00:05:03
I still keep an eye on you first00:05:05
peace And of course, get ahead of everyone00:05:09
Friday's sanctions package00:05:12
the worst hasn't happened yet I say00:05:16
because we don't know what will happen next00:05:17
in about two months I understand the packages00:05:20
sanctions that were announced but they are in00:05:23
prepared very quickly00:05:25
partly to give away at least something but00:05:28
some sanctions from Europe00:05:30
will follow probably in the next week00:05:32
additional to those packages that already00:05:34
announced, well, everyone was afraid of course00:05:37
NCC sanctions00:05:39
exchange infrastructure of the Moscow Exchange00:05:41
it is not included in the sanctions package00:05:44
Let's touch it, let's look at the panic separately00:05:47
on the foreign exchange market on futures Here and in00:05:49
principle hypothetical consequences for00:05:51
We will also look into the NCC if they ever00:05:53
will be introduced because it's great00:05:55
We saw that we were there on Friday. And of course00:05:57
probably one of the important events00:06:00
Closing of the week It's Friday evening00:06:02
NATO meeting is here after all00:06:06
common sense is still in the minds of many00:06:09
other countries in the minds of many politicians00:06:11
present despite Ukraine's application00:06:14
join NATO this application of course00:06:17
will not consider this now00:06:19
NATO head Ian also said and expressed himself00:06:22
Stoltenberg and, accordingly, the White House00:06:24
Now is not the time And of course that's it00:06:26
understand that this will already be direct00:06:28
NATO conflict with Russia, well, such countries00:06:31
at least like Germany like00:06:34
Türkiye is like Hungary Well, they definitely won’t want to00:06:39
accept00:06:40
Ukraine is now in NATO, understanding what00:06:43
there will be consequences Well, in order to00:06:46
Any country needs to be accepted by everyone00:06:48
members of the NATO Alliance voted for But00:06:50
now there are many countries that are against00:06:52
that's why this is also a very important point00:06:55
in terms of geopolitics for investors in that00:06:58
Thank God it's still common sense00:07:01
still still present Okay00:07:03
the Russian stock market is still00:07:05
let me leave it for later, here you go00:07:09
let's start with peace00:07:12
probably the most important thing is my opinion00:07:14
because once again I want to say that00:07:16
this is already a fact and we can talk about it with confidence00:07:19
talk in the yard '22 and in the yard00:07:22
new serious financial crisis crisis00:07:25
debt was mentioned about it I warned00:07:28
probably a few years sooner or later00:07:30
must happen This is the worst00:07:33
crisis because to keep under control00:07:36
inflation of trillion debt bubbles00:07:39
dollars is very difficult because00:07:41
they said in the hands of the banks no00:07:42
that's why it's gaining momentum and00:07:46
accordingly its consequences for the world00:07:48
unknown of course very cool now00:07:51
experiments will be carried out00:07:53
we had cool parcels that00:07:56
investors generally appreciated it very much00:07:59
interesting and based on this now it will be00:08:01
all logic is built with an eye to 400:08:04
quarter because today is the first day00:08:07
ended00:08:09
was a week ended a month and00:08:12
the quarter ended in America ended00:08:14
the financial year is one of the worst00:08:18
the worst years in history for the American00:08:21
American stock market indices00:08:23
closed at minimum absolute00:08:25
year marks that's why you can also00:08:27
to draw some conclusions for now00:08:29
Of course I will still do a lot00:08:32
Fourth quarter forecasts here's how00:08:35
throughout Russia and around the world. Although once again this00:08:38
it's very hard to do everything00:08:40
So let's go00:08:43
Of course I’ll start from the basics again00:08:48
basics yes How the global financial system works00:08:50
the system is repeated for the hundredth time But00:08:52
it is necessary that the main thing is to keep afloat00:08:55
debt market central banks00:08:58
don't care about everything, their task is to keep on00:09:00
the market has been floating for a long time, which is coming out from under00:09:02
control the show we saw00:09:04
of course This week Well first of all00:09:07
Monday even on Bloomberg00:09:10
This article is quite terrible00:09:12
released that yes on the market for a long time00:09:16
sell-off bearish trend intensifies00:09:19
began and it should be noted that once again Who00:09:22
doesn’t understand the fact that the market has been there for a long time00:09:24
Essentially this is a market without risky assets00:09:27
which00:09:28
supposedly who have always been risk-free00:09:31
yes, that is, when there are stocks on the markets When in00:09:33
the economy begins to panic and the markets00:09:36
shares are usually sold off with money00:09:38
stock market immigrate to the market00:09:39
long these are protective tools always00:09:41
were considered before the bonds of Nadya countries under00:09:44
protection of central banks Well again00:09:46
the risk of default of a particular country, you00:09:48
you see, it’s supposedly minimal. That’s a plus00:09:50
when there are central banks on guard00:09:52
who supported all this Therefore00:09:53
always when panic all the money00:09:56
moving to the market Long but this year00:09:59
distinguished by that significant event00:10:01
that protective assets based on nine00:10:04
months lost more value than the market00:10:08
shares This is a paradox of defensive assets00:10:10
fall all nine months stronger than00:10:13
risky assets00:10:15
minus 24 minus 25 percent average00:10:19
fall if we take global debt00:10:21
the market despite the fact that the S&P closed there -2400:10:24
-23 there since the beginning of this year00:10:26
global debt market at 25 already00:10:28
collapsed and of course the breakdown is the most important00:10:32
the level was around 20 percent rollback00:10:34
When we had a level There 400 how much00:10:36
450 straight exactly This is the level since 201000:10:40
year is global aggregated00:10:42
world bond index here in principle00:10:44
how they pierced it Well here it is00:10:47
a terrible thing has begun, so to speak.00:10:51
results of this week we see more00:10:53
acceleration minus 20 almost five percent00:10:55
rollback You are such a rollback Well, this is a graph with00:10:58
the nineties, well, throughout history00:11:02
once again such kickbacks of such sales on00:11:04
there was no global market for a long time That is00:11:06
This is the biggest sale ever00:11:10
story despite the fact that it is not a fact that it00:11:13
It's over, it can gain momentum00:11:15
on Here and Judging by the technique, the breakdown is here00:11:19
well, the road is still down00:11:21
From a fundamental point of view and with00:11:24
technical point of view while the road is down on00:11:26
this is scary, this is the basis again00:11:29
you don’t have to just think about the basics, it’s clear00:11:32
what if problems start00:11:34
serious in Europe in Britain in America00:11:37
there that we will be better off from this yes00:11:40
that’s why China understands and will be pulled down00:11:44
and the raw materials on which Ours depends00:11:46
economy and budget revenues a lot00:11:48
everything is connected so let's00:11:50
let's figure out what's happening in the world again00:11:52
in any case, they will pass someday00:11:55
years will pass, maybe years, I'm not saying00:12:00
decades Yes, here's someone at the stock market00:12:02
the market will still be in 5 10 15 2000:12:05
years old will still want to trade00:12:07
invest in different asset classes00:12:09
foreigners will have such an opportunity00:12:11
I hope it appears That's why that case00:12:14
which is always yes with analysis00:12:17
fundamental Well, you won’t find it. But in00:12:20
this logic is not described in books00:12:22
these processes are not described in books00:12:24
it's happening now Well it's happening00:12:27
contrary to all common sense and logic00:12:30
that is, even those actions that00:12:33
undertaken by central banks00:12:34
this has never happened in history before00:12:37
I'm trying to convey and explain all this to you00:12:41
and I hope to tell you the logic. Just this one00:12:44
useful case Just for the future myself00:12:47
will come in handy00:12:48
this week, of course, is probably the most00:12:51
famous event many events00:12:53
over the week it is clear that the focus of attention00:12:55
now there may be Russian investors00:12:56
other news but probably for me00:12:58
after all, the most important event of the week is00:13:01
what happened in general in Britain00:13:04
market for a long time on the stock market with the British00:13:07
a pound and of course something00:13:11
that he alienated00:13:13
Central Bank of Britain instrument00:13:16
Panic00:13:17
It's Monday, I think that's it00:13:19
started on Monday Tuesday was00:13:21
strongest sale on the market for a long time00:13:22
Italy Just look at the profitability00:13:24
flew away in almost 24 hours00:13:27
the four and a half percent mark there00:13:29
total sale00:13:31
Rumor has it that during the Asian session everyone00:13:34
it started Yes it started very strong00:13:38
sales by HSBC bank here's how00:13:41
write rumors Black Rock threatened00:13:44
suspend trading in full swing00:13:47
turbulence in the British market00:13:49
bonds are accused of inability00:13:52
protect pension clients' funds00:13:53
Funds In the midst of market excitement00:13:55
UK bonds this week00:13:57
financial times article well00:14:02
if this situation had not been stopped then00:14:06
those same margin calls would rain down00:14:08
which00:14:09
Margin fees for funds and Tsepnaya00:14:13
the reaction would go well and accordingly00:14:15
pension funds would be under00:14:17
threat to pension funds of different countries00:14:19
That is, you understand nothing yet00:14:22
this just didn't happen00:14:25
while everything is only getting worse, that is, you00:14:27
you can see everything perfectly, but even the games00:14:29
yields, the higher the yield, the00:14:32
means lower than the price That is, when the price tags00:14:34
When is the bond price selling off?00:14:37
profitability collapses and increases accordingly00:14:38
Here it is again For those newbies who are first00:14:41
since it looks at all so you see00:14:44
What00:14:45
in a moment of panic, even well, the largest in00:14:50
world funds and understands that00:14:53
sometimes it’s scary to even do something00:14:56
impossible, well, someone has Marzhan00:14:59
The colas are coming00:15:02
pound of course I understand We have a pound in00:15:05
moment if you look00:15:07
was approaching the 103 mark literally in00:15:11
a step away from parity Yes, if you take this00:15:15
all this is an anti-record in history00:15:16
in my opinion the British economy00:15:19
because not so long ago there was one 1000:15:22
11 12 this has not been forgotten there since the eighties00:15:25
I think that's all for this week00:15:27
it was punched00:15:28
1:03103 and Panic in the market respectively00:15:32
long of course00:15:35
the situation is terrifying00:15:40
all this with a debt load on not00:15:44
financial sector at almost 270 percent00:15:47
GDP in the UK is happening by the way00:15:50
similar debt burden is not00:15:52
the financial sector, in fact, in Italy too00:15:54
and in America too. That is, you understand00:15:57
scale of current problems and consequences00:16:00
if it doesn't stop someday00:16:04
at some point, that is, we smear cola and00:16:05
went to a few large ones00:16:08
players But if it doesn't stop it00:16:10
tsunami across all funds in the world, major ones00:16:14
who holds trillions because many00:16:16
Of course, all this is still in ripa, that is, gangs00:16:19
They have always been reliable assets00:16:21
they were mortgaged and others were bought00:16:22
these assets were pledged and purchased00:16:25
shares also knew that the collateral was reliable00:16:30
securities will fall faster than stocks00:16:34
no one put this in the model00:16:37
because this has never happened in history00:16:40
there were many funds working according to models00:16:43
which have been tested at least00:16:45
I don’t know about the last 30-40 years00:16:47
history and what is happening now00:16:49
this has never happened in history before00:16:53
we haven’t seen the bank go bankrupt yet00:16:56
I'm still surprised how00:16:58
didn't grunt some more or less00:17:00
largest bank on the planet in Europe in00:17:03
Switzerland in Britain in America I still00:17:06
I'm still surprised because the drop is 2500:17:09
percent of the global debt bubble00:17:11
global market00:17:14
that's decent, that is me00:17:17
the guys are probably eating with their last strength00:17:20
such banks are up to their ears with Perry00:17:23
cross diagrams with positions00:17:26
marginal someone using his last strength00:17:28
clearly now such a bank is holding on very00:17:30
a lot but with the last of my strength somewhere00:17:33
get liquidity overlap but still00:17:36
I'm surprised it's still there00:17:38
some commercial daughter and through the BBC00:17:41
or Credit Swiss still hasn't surfaced00:17:45
belly up surprised Well okay00:17:48
save of course yes00:17:51
in two weeks sheet rhinestone two weeks yes00:17:54
as Prime Minister00:17:57
Ushatala Ushatala almost a pound and00:18:01
almost destroyed the market for two long time00:18:03
weeks00:18:04
and of course yes, instead of like now00:18:09
you need to do and go to00:18:12
unpopular measures to reduce the deficit00:18:15
budget00:18:16
slow down incentives and do whatever it takes00:18:20
to reduce inflation Yes00:18:24
her minister's office She made a decision00:18:26
on the contrary, stimulate the economy partly00:18:28
and reduce taxes Well, the consequences are clear00:18:32
And then why are you making the situation worse?00:18:36
the most interesting thing is that00:18:38
Bank of England to protect the pound00:18:42
I'm in the last issue a lot of this is us too00:18:44
dedicated I say put yourself on00:18:47
place the Bank of England what should he do to00:18:48
pound protect from parity from a simple00:18:53
here if parity breaks00:18:55
pound there the road down anywhere the same00:18:59
how the euro basically broke through the euro units00:19:01
there is no [ __ ] level anymore00:19:03
level 09 But if 09 breaks further00:19:05
08 07 0605 and this is a blow all over the world00:19:11
to all asset failures this tsunami will be00:19:15
all currencies00:19:17
Now I’ll explain a very important point00:19:19
once again what is holding it all back now and00:19:23
are there any further possibilities?00:19:25
interview the same thing here that is00:19:28
I had to hold on, I had to do something00:19:30
do of course00:19:32
in the last issue I was the only one who spoke00:19:34
what I see as an option is central00:19:37
bank and Britain and the euro and the ECB to raise00:19:42
rate sharply by 2-3 percent immediately00:19:45
extraordinary meeting of course this00:19:48
will come to a reversal But this will lead to00:19:52
disastrous consequences of the moment in the market00:19:54
long and of course this is a powerful blow to00:19:57
economy00:19:58
Well, accordingly, a blow to the economy00:20:01
consequences for the debt market That is00:20:03
the situation in the salon is irreversible, that is,00:20:06
you will save the currency and temporarily reverse it00:20:10
But this is a blow to the economy with everyone00:20:11
ensuing00:20:13
the most interesting thing is that when the pound is on that00:20:16
the week was falling and under the closure of the case Well00:20:19
the British tried to turn it around00:20:20
British bank Yes, they still don’t know00:20:23
maybe they listened to my broadcast but started00:20:25
perform oral interventions00:20:28
that we yes at the next meeting maybe00:20:30
be on extraordinary we will raise the rate00:20:31
immediately on interest maybe on two of these00:20:35
Of course there were enough statements for several00:20:36
hours maybe one day to a pound00:20:38
stop but when they started marching00:20:40
Coke Monday or Tuesday00:20:44
they did a non-trivial thing, what in00:20:48
there has never been a story before00:20:52
they announced00:20:53
about the new printing press about the ransom00:20:56
unlimited long bond market00:21:02
on Tuesday we had before this background00:21:05
even yes00:21:06
yes everything turned around not much00:21:10
American indices rebounded even by00:21:13
two percent of something suddenly closed in00:21:16
plus and the whole world seemed to begin00:21:19
extrapolate This step is all00:21:22
they don't have central banks anymore00:21:25
Once again, they have no choice and00:21:28
essence from the Hundred Years of History shows that00:21:30
they can't do anything except00:21:33
continue to print and once again the first Central00:21:36
the bank in the world gave up and at a time when everything00:21:40
started to get out of control after all00:21:42
despite record inflation deficit00:21:45
budget decided to launch redemption again00:21:48
bonds they were only two a week ago00:21:51
or like two weeks ago only on00:21:53
at the next meeting they announced that we would00:21:55
clear balance sheets like all central00:21:57
banks and raise rates for two weeks00:21:59
pass and the place of clearing the place is00:22:02
withdrawing money instead of starting to print00:22:06
in order to save the situation, by the way, I want to immediately00:22:09
say yes to former Bank of England governor Mark00:22:12
Carney and the second man with the head forgot him00:22:16
sharply condemned the actions of the current head00:22:20
The central bank says it's a dead end00:22:22
you won't achieve anything with this00:22:25
understand how you are making the situation worse00:22:28
moreover, with harsh criticism in the evening00:22:30
The International Monetary Fund spoke out that00:22:33
such measures have now been resorted to such measures00:22:35
Bank of England cannot be resorted to now00:22:38
sent by direct text direct00:22:41
text sent by an Expert from the International00:22:44
currency board00:22:46
we will do what we decide, I will explain00:22:50
for those who don't understand they decided00:22:52
Carry out such an experiment00:22:54
simultaneous tightening00:22:56
monetary policy with00:22:58
simultaneous easing00:22:59
monetary policy such as00:23:02
no one has ever made history, that is, we00:23:04
we raise the rates but in order to avoid00:23:07
inflation and support the debt market00:23:11
profitability and on the other hand we00:23:13
continue to print what continues00:23:15
accelerate inflation and depreciate the currency00:23:18
both softening and tightening at the same time00:23:23
such actions say one thing that the situation00:23:27
hopeless00:23:29
once again I'm not the first year to you00:23:32
I say that central banks themselves00:23:33
drove themselves into a corner Yes when00:23:35
just everything And so they drove That's all And00:23:40
now it's impossible to do anything00:23:42
the situation is getting out of control00:23:44
It's like you can't type00:23:46
secured machine everything collapses yet00:23:48
one conclusion that can be drawn00:23:52
all of this00:23:55
this is essentially the moment though00:23:58
probably a long time ago but now00:24:00
it is most clearly expressed that the economy00:24:04
such as Europe Britain all these00:24:09
Anglo-Saxons and America including more00:24:12
without drugs without printing them00:24:15
economies simply cannot exist00:24:17
even six months even00:24:22
If you do not continue to print your00:24:24
economies simply will not default00:24:27
All00:24:29
and this is the first one to give up and admit it00:24:32
defeat If he hadn't come out all this00:24:36
there would be a steep drop in sales00:24:38
Margin price of pension funds from banks00:24:40
let's go to bed and cover the jars with calla lilies00:24:43
a pound on 05 would fly somewhere and00:24:46
Chain reaction of the euro to the same place on the 05th wave00:24:48
sales would hit Britain00:24:51
market for a long time in Europe and everything and everything and no00:24:53
two largest economies It's simple It's00:24:57
this is a lit match, that's just it00:25:00
flew down below there was spilled kerosene but she00:25:03
intercepted00:25:09
how will this experiment end?00:25:12
he is condemned by X heads of central banks00:25:16
Britain IMF I agree This00:25:21
an incomprehensible experiment that is00:25:25
very difficult to estimate and model00:25:29
situation00:25:31
why don't you fight then00:25:34
Well00:25:36
just understanding how debt works00:25:40
market and volume of debt obligations and00:25:44
the volume of problems the banks have I understand that in00:25:48
there will be more sales at some point00:25:49
stronger Well then the Bank of Britain00:25:52
will print more and buy back00:25:55
Now the panic has been extinguished00:25:57
one-day with Yes stop do not repay00:26:00
stop for a while00:26:02
interventions and the question, of course, is how much00:26:06
they still have money for intervention yes00:26:10
after all, buying gangs is one thing00:26:12
stop00:26:13
currency needs to be deployed here00:26:15
intervention you must have currency00:26:19
do you have dollars how much do you have00:26:21
there are still dollars left that you can00:26:24
sell convert to uk00:26:26
pound to keep it from falling I00:26:30
now the schedule was even specially made before00:26:32
on swap lines from the Fed while snot nu Fed00:26:35
I didn’t expand it with another bank But that’s a question00:26:37
time of course00:26:39
Americans00:26:41
all over the world except of course China there yes00:26:44
will open the swap in a moment of chaos here00:26:47
haven't opened yet, that's probably why00:26:50
The British probably still have some money00:26:52
yes I don't know where to look this one00:26:55
information How many dollars do they have00:26:57
left00:26:58
Well, the positive reaction we saw00:27:01
on the stock market and in the world even in fact00:27:05
these actions00:27:07
Bank of Britain at the moment participants00:27:10
assessed as follows in the same00:27:12
Bank of Europe is in a deadlock00:27:15
and accordingly American That is00:27:18
if you literally break through those a little bit00:27:22
levels that we now see in the markets00:27:25
shares on the market for a long time will give back00:27:29
And I apologize to the drift and the ECB and the Fed and00:27:34
in the same way, in spite of everything they will say Well00:27:37
ok we don't want to keep the economy00:27:39
to hell with this inflation we00:27:42
But still we continue to print00:27:46
Therefore, there was a positive moment00:27:48
reaction to all this but as we see below00:27:52
the curtain of a week before the reaction was enough00:27:54
one day the next day the site is already00:27:56
fell and according to the second week00:27:58
fell I don't think so00:28:01
what in00:28:06
the next month will probably still be00:28:09
the same acute acute moment in Europe00:28:12
and in America but I don't think that00:28:16
so fast00:28:18
And the Federal Reserve Bank will act in exactly the same way00:28:24
they will allow more significant00:28:27
sale and chaos00:28:31
I think yes00:28:34
and the levels at which they stopped now and00:28:38
They closed the whole block, it's terrible00:28:41
levels if you look everywhere at all this00:28:43
terrible level everywhere on the market for a long time00:28:45
market on the foreign exchange market and on the stock market00:28:48
Well, if of course it weren’t for the Bank of Britain00:28:51
probably everything would be the same from this week00:28:53
much worse00:28:56
Therefore, here it is: a vicious circle00:29:02
and a situation in which central banks00:29:05
has no trump cards at all and of course yes00:29:07
the situation is paradoxical00:29:11
By the way there is logic in this I could00:29:14
may even agree with such actions00:29:16
when you are in a hopeless situation00:29:18
after all, hypothetically00:29:20
if you press it a little and even00:29:24
raise the rate at the same time Even though it is00:29:26
stupidity Yes but inflation we are close to00:29:31
peak levels in the world, that is, inflation00:29:34
should, well, fade out in America, of course00:29:36
maybe already there in a month or two00:29:38
it should decline in Europe K00:29:41
unfortunately it is still gaining momentum00:29:42
because the subsidies have run out00:29:44
many subsidies Even now without these00:29:48
subsidies subsidies of course new ones are coming out00:29:50
the numbers are shocking, that is, another month00:29:53
two three maybe it will still be00:29:55
accelerate But in the USA inflation is at00:29:58
peak It will pass soon so of course00:30:00
buy time with such incentives after all00:30:04
with high inflation But a little further00:30:06
seal keeping the market afloat00:30:10
maybe this is the way out you actually need00:30:14
Well, a few months are just out of the question00:30:16
about years maximum Quarter 2 needed00:30:20
do it00:30:22
this might be the way out00:30:26
Well, let's see, let's see. It just doesn't matter.00:30:30
rate increases are further00:30:33
inevitable and to the processes it00:30:38
the processes will still suck00:30:40
occur due to rate increases00:30:41
the economy is dying but also00:30:44
with all relevant therefore00:30:47
those they announced unlimited accurate00:30:50
interventions will still not be enough00:30:52
large-scale injections are needed here00:30:55
large-scale if you come in if you want00:30:57
trillion to pour in both of these programs again00:31:00
Well, all this is Khan’s currency. Well, what if the currency00:31:03
inflation is collapsing again Well00:31:05
I won’t be in a vicious circle for the tenth time00:31:07
one and the same everything everything is interconnected00:31:12
their actions always have side effects00:31:14
any action they take has a counteraction00:31:16
negative effect on the economy that is00:31:19
Not now00:31:20
here's a model How to do it Here's what what00:31:23
what needs to be done now in this situation00:31:25
in such a situation the world central banks00:31:28
is for the first time in history Therefore00:31:30
have to experiment00:31:34
but an experiment is already this without a way out00:31:38
hopelessness I will say this00:31:41
scary experiment consequences00:31:43
which no one understands00:31:45
hypothetically they should be bad00:31:48
So here is the yield curve00:31:51
Of course, all this is Fear and horror, but what?00:31:56
that is, the growth of the curve, the increase in yield00:31:59
bonds of Britain something similar Coming soon00:32:03
will be in Italy again while it's still there00:32:06
the front short end is more or less still00:32:08
stays under control and flies there00:32:10
that is, Fear Fear you see perfectly well00:32:13
in the short term, a year or two or three00:32:15
this is very00:32:17
America has a serious fear and the same00:32:20
The curve, that is, we are already here00:32:22
American plus or minus British00:32:24
equaled opening Yes and in terms of profitability00:32:27
there too00:32:29
so Okay, we’ll close this again for a week00:32:32
it was very important to close the month and week00:32:35
and month and quarter As high as possible That is00:32:39
if the pound closed close to one00:32:42
parity But this would be from the point of view00:32:45
technology very bad signal therefore00:32:46
of course at the end of the week and quarter Well00:32:51
what percentage of 8 it was torn out00:32:53
back and under one 10 probably now00:32:55
I'll watch it right away00:32:57
there are 1086 more here00:33:05
so above 1 10 Well, they closed it Yes she is00:33:08
and it was necessary to be higher than at least one ten00:33:10
closed one 11 almost 1100:33:16
Well, at least we need to keep the equipment00:33:18
it was broken because the picture was00:33:21
very bad but 11 is a little higher even00:33:23
Well, they kept it. In general, of course yes00:33:28
[music]00:33:30
this is what it looks like00:33:33
an absurd hopeless situation in which00:33:35
We've been pushing ourselves for many years, so00:33:39
let's see let's see it's very00:33:42
experiment of course action00:33:44
Britain's central bank has had an impact00:33:47
in all currencies, of course, there was panic00:33:52
moment the dollar index flew to 115 Here00:33:55
and from there we see so hard00:33:57
serious turn down here but for now00:34:02
talk about the fact that everything is dollar index00:34:05
from here it will unfold I wouldn't do it00:34:08
It’s too early to draw such conclusions00:34:11
I’ll explain these conclusions now Why00:34:15
Intervention to go out with interventions on00:34:17
market on the foreign exchange market Yes central00:34:19
there are not many banks of opportunities here00:34:22
China has much more such opportunities00:34:24
yuan we'll talk separately Here But at00:34:28
Britain's ECB is not like that, we're not like that but not00:34:30
I want so many opportunities at once00:34:33
say about00:34:34
Bitcoin Come on, we're talking about currencies00:34:37
after all, Look, now I’m not00:34:40
first gear probably not first00:34:41
I've been noticing this for a week00:34:43
more or less stability Yes Crypto Well00:34:47
some cryptoactive particulars00:34:49
Bitcoins are often considered in spite of00:34:51
because the situation in the world is deteriorating and00:34:54
stock market and one more week in00:34:57
red zone a significant drop in00:34:59
American Bitcoin market 1920 in this00:35:02
the range stays there even on Thursday00:35:04
or on Friday the twenty even flew away00:35:07
on Thursday even above twenty00:35:09
That is, complete ignore for now00:35:13
risk off that is happening in the world yes00:35:16
Bitcoin there since the beginning of the year -60 percent00:35:18
it fell anyway, but this consolidation00:35:20
which then started and she ignores00:35:24
ignores That is, three quarters in a row00:35:27
we are falling and bitcoin is essentially the last00:35:29
the quarter is no longer falling the markets are falling now00:35:32
this is power, so to speak, I bought more00:35:37
to a company related to Crypto00:35:40
industry sambit Well, there I am not Bitcoin00:35:45
these are buying shares of a company that00:35:47
connected to crypto Yes, this is the Marathon group00:35:52
Rio blockchain00:35:54
and microstrategies three companies in total up to00:35:58
12 percent share in portfolios is engaged00:36:00
the third company re-typed this one00:36:02
share Well let's see this is the rate00:36:04
presented next year That is00:36:06
Of course we all understand perfectly well that00:36:09
as soon as inflation subsides like the Fed00:36:12
there will be an opportunity it all begins00:36:13
soften it is clear that this will unfold00:36:15
the dollar is clear that this will lead to takeoff00:36:18
the same bitcoin, well, where is this peak00:36:22
where is this phase, is it the acute phase00:36:25
ends in the fourth quarter here00:36:27
Everything seems to be clear already, 4th quarter everything00:36:29
must put into place and00:36:30
perhaps the 4th quarter will be a turning point We00:36:33
we will see the final fall in the markets and00:36:36
Maybe00:36:38
changing shoes is already in our minds by the way00:36:42
good very important indicator I am now00:36:44
the chart did not make the markets always live00:36:46
future Yes, let’s not forget that is what00:36:48
what's happening now I don't care at all00:36:50
this is what will happen through00:36:51
month is also not particularly interested in large ones00:36:54
background players their Horizon is not like many00:36:57
private investors there a month two three There00:36:59
speculator and Horizon from year or from00:37:02
two are even desirable, so if00:37:04
look at the wait00:37:07
those of the same inflation over ten years00:37:10
US bonds then they are sharply on this00:37:13
week went down sharply sharply below two00:37:15
percent00:37:17
US ten-year inflation expectations00:37:21
between two percent have already fallen00:37:23
24-23 there were even 2 and 5. So00:37:26
there was a sharp drop below kopeck piece00:37:29
sharp, that is, according to my foolish principle00:37:31
It's clear that we're in a recession. Oh, by the way.00:37:34
the second estimate of US GDP was released this year00:37:37
week minus 06 confirmed that is we00:37:40
in recession and still have two quarters to go00:37:42
recessionary in the world but recession when00:37:45
the whole economy is collapsing and the recession is understandable00:37:48
that inflation won't last long00:37:51
will be because the demand for everything is falling00:37:53
goods and services are in short supply everywhere00:37:56
falling demand leads to falling prices00:37:58
therefore there is usually an economic00:38:00
the logic is fundamental therefore the expectation00:38:01
change dramatically but on the stock00:38:05
the market is not yet pressed by these expectations because00:38:08
that at least at the next meetings00:38:11
all the world's central banks once again00:38:14
aggressively every single one will raise the bet00:38:16
All00:38:19
therefore, market expectations are better for now00:38:22
the side hasn't changed after a month00:38:24
in a year and a half Yes, following expectations00:38:29
which you already have on which to pay00:38:31
long-term investors will change more00:38:33
short term expectations but not now00:38:35
Now everyone understands that the cycle of increase00:38:39
will still continue00:38:42
Here is the data that has now been released00:38:44
this week is another confirmation of that00:38:47
Therefore, with an eye to the year once again this00:38:52
my bets friends I don't care about anyone00:38:54
I urge you I may be wrong I'm not00:38:56
I believed in the cue ball and also the breakdown of 20, I was waiting00:38:59
the road to 10 but we see yes I wouldn’t be surprised00:39:03
if SNT is even at 3,300 or 3,00000:39:05
will fall Well, what could Bitcoin be like?00:39:09
it won’t work, maybe this could happen in theory00:39:12
maybe this could be the case here too00:39:14
paint00:39:16
future printing press without which you cannot00:39:21
American non-European economy00:39:24
cannot exist therefore as soon as00:39:27
there will be an opportunity00:39:29
inflation will go down, everyone will ask for it00:39:32
therefore, such an opportunity will already appear00:39:34
a block away so it makes sense if again00:39:37
I say Horizon year then with an eye to year00:39:39
You can now start placing bets on the price00:39:42
this is minor 1918 is not playing yet I00:39:48
I bet on 40/50/6000:39:51
next year but I honestly have a role00:39:53
between 15-19 it seems not at all, well at least00:39:57
kill Well 10 20 percent in the asset where00:40:00
fluctuations per week can be 30 4000:40:02
50 listen this is an error in general00:40:07
If you are there with shoulders figs for you and00:40:10
one percent swing in asset there Yes00:40:12
it's very strong If you go there00:40:14
small volume from the briefcase there 1000:40:16
percent Well okay Well I see 1000:40:18
percent 2 percent briefcase asking Well00:40:20
and to hell with it nothing like that00:40:24
so well, the fact itself is interesting00:40:28
everything will come together at some point for us00:40:30
dexym I'm not sure if this is the final For now00:40:33
it’s not clear that this is the finale But if this is00:40:35
the final will be a cue ball of course00:40:37
unfold I think the finale will be00:40:38
look worse look worse just a little bit00:40:42
But00:40:44
thoughts I hope you understand and how00:40:46
it is clearly visible here00:40:51
the asset began to look better because00:40:54
than a risky asset Although this is over00:40:56
the risky asset began to look a little better00:40:58
than just risky assets because00:41:00
here it seems like he’s already starting to ask00:41:02
still future printing presses00:41:06
market after all Unfortunately no regarding00:41:09
here's Dick pile Yes the situation will be okay00:41:12
deteriorate in the market for a long time00:41:14
they ask where Irishka Irishka is on vacation00:41:17
planned by the way flew away00:41:19
to Turkey at the regatta participates in the regatta00:41:23
what a bastard00:41:25
I'm here in Moscow, she's about to regat00:41:30
Here00:41:32
market situation for a long time00:41:35
will get worse in Europe and Britain00:41:39
it's clear for now, at least I'm a little bit00:41:41
I will extinguish but at some point myself00:41:43
it will break through again, I tell you many times00:41:46
explained how everything would develop and00:41:48
Italy in Germany That is, I already tell you00:41:50
prints and buys but in what but everything00:41:52
there will be waves and markets are not fools00:41:55
players who will do this on purpose00:41:57
do Yes, and the market is basically on purpose00:41:59
these waves of sales will do all this00:42:02
there will be one second third and the stronger00:42:06
the wave the more they will check for what00:42:08
the European regulator has a limit00:42:10
which can be used for00:42:12
deterring sellers But if true00:42:14
becomes even more than this limit00:42:16
enough so the prices will be responsible00:42:17
I won't be forced to fall yet00:42:20
if you want to panic, print no more00:42:22
print even more and can00:42:24
at some point00:42:26
that's why we see attacks in waves00:42:29
and sales on the debt market and Igor00:42:32
Everything undulates every month more00:42:34
significant it has not yet been grunted by more than one00:42:37
bank if he grunts some bank00:42:39
Cola margin can be made in a week00:42:42
such00:42:43
that they won't be able to cope with the Central Bank00:42:46
Regarding liquidity, this is the Fed balance sheet. Yes, and00:42:51
swapping swaps which Well funding00:42:54
dollar ones which00:42:56
Central Bank of America i.e. Dollars00:42:59
through swap lines provides others00:43:01
by the central bank, that is, of course, in00:43:03
moment of panic when everything collapses00:43:06
there is a strong demand for00:43:08
the American dollar is why it00:43:10
is growing because everyone needs it00:43:12
on the interbank market they fly into space because00:43:13
once again there are not enough dollars for everyone because00:43:16
that everything is negotiable, even European ones00:43:17
debt instruments denominated in00:43:19
American dollars Yes, if00:43:21
talk about the European economy00:43:23
a lot of people talk about what to wear on the throttle there00:43:25
the Russians were sitting there, she was sitting there00:43:28
American dollar needle Yes it is from00:43:31
depends on him and once again even occupied there00:43:35
all these volumes in euros in dollars here00:43:39
that's why it depends on him I won't look at it00:43:41
the other is sitting She was planted a long time ago00:43:43
I even got myself hooked a long time ago and00:43:46
this is a needle manipulator, I say it again00:43:49
you can do whatever you want on our00:43:50
sit in the game Therefore, these are all here too00:43:53
this well now I don’t want this policy Well00:43:56
you see perfectly Yes00:43:59
current situation and now the peak of panic00:44:02
crises Yes debt crisis in Europe 1200:44:05
year 9 8 years well, 2020 it’s clear that00:44:11
that was it00:44:13
the most important moment of saving the world00:44:16
there is when everything is well now so00:44:20
I tell the central bank again00:44:22
support the market for a long time it needs00:44:23
bribe bonds in order to still00:44:24
support its currency it must be00:44:27
interventions and convert the same00:44:30
support the dollar for your currency00:44:33
thereby your own currency what to do with it00:44:35
strange or that central bank00:44:37
which the supply of dollars is drying up00:44:40
like, for example, with Turkey they don’t have00:44:43
they have almost zero dollars and dollars00:44:47
practically none so they even00:44:49
the interventionist Turkish lira cannot therefore00:44:51
she's been in a steep decline all year00:44:54
dollar as soon as it runs out00:44:56
dollar limits at central banks00:44:59
Britain or Europe there yes00:45:01
accordingly, they also have interventions00:45:03
they won’t be able to go out anymore. But well, what if00:45:06
the sale on the market will take a long time00:45:09
of course everything will still hit00:45:11
currency intervention needed00:45:13
Well at some point I think that at any time00:45:16
case it will be more significant00:45:18
panic moment for the global economy00:45:20
and most likely he will be just about yes Judging00:45:24
according to the current situation in the world00:45:26
of course the Central Bank of America Fed00:45:29
will again provide almost unlimited swap00:45:33
lines00:45:34
central bank for those who need it00:45:37
how it was in 2020, that is, Europe00:45:40
Japan there I don’t know Britain there anyone00:45:43
need to provide a topic maybe00:45:45
Switzerland so on That is this00:45:48
just dollars00:45:51
Well, swap line Well, they just give you dollars00:45:54
support for a while in debt there yes00:45:56
free for you to be00:45:58
the opportunity to operate on them later00:46:01
you return them then they return everything00:46:04
When the acute phase passes Well, here's how00:46:06
only there will be panic and I will see that there is a swap00:46:11
lines to the entire central bank again00:46:13
open yes that’s probably how it will be00:46:17
once the final and the strengthening of the American00:46:20
dollar on the global market Because00:46:22
It's a long time to be interested now. I understand that00:46:26
world against dollar currency hold already00:46:29
can not00:46:30
there are simply no such reserves and if00:46:33
situation I want a reserve especially not00:46:35
that's enough so it will all be here00:46:38
look like she usually looked before00:46:40
panic00:46:41
dollars dollars to the world everyone00:46:43
the Fed gives the central banks and it's like00:46:46
this is what it will look like00:46:48
final growth as soon as they give00:46:50
there will be great opportunities for everyone00:46:52
calmly with almost unlimited00:46:54
interventions is present on the market and00:46:57
hold back the fall of their currencies even00:46:58
reverse them against the dollar00:47:00
So here are my thoughts for now:00:47:03
dollar and currencies like this says that00:47:07
now showed the finale here00:47:10
probably probably too early everything is possible No Everything00:47:13
maybe but I'm just saying that it's usual00:47:16
the final phase is happening happening00:47:18
more other processes are not just there00:47:21
someone said something bank of britain and and00:47:24
everyone believed no to the final phase00:47:25
scary things happen and00:47:29
central bankers starts working00:47:31
a little differently I hope so00:47:33
explained00:47:34
this is just saying the whole explanation again00:47:37
to what is happening in the world and on00:47:40
foreign exchange market including00:47:41
regarding the situation00:47:44
in the world Yes of course00:47:47
There are a lot of different ones coming out every week.00:47:49
important indicators that are looked at00:47:52
investors market there are secondary00:47:54
priority there is priority there is00:47:56
lagging but once again the most important thing00:47:58
pies are an indicator of the state of the economy and00:48:00
future state and future of the market00:48:06
stock the most important thing is the consumer00:48:09
of course it’s already like 10 in America00:48:14
months, consumer confidence has been collapsing00:48:16
is at minimum levels but also00:48:18
everything showed what it led to and00:48:20
will lead further, but this one is clear00:48:22
week too Look at the liquid index00:48:24
consumer climate index00:48:25
This is an anti-record in the UK00:48:30
here is the graph since 2000, this is an anti-record00:48:33
maybe throughout history that is00:48:35
consumer00:48:38
his confidence his expectations current00:48:42
state in 2008 At the height of00:48:45
financial crisis were better than00:48:47
now than now00:48:51
but the consumer is the final demand00:48:54
for goods and services of the company which are all00:48:56
they produce it and there is just profit00:49:00
corporations00:49:02
That is, everyone understands that in the current00:49:04
no one understands the situation what will happen00:49:06
tomorrow what will happen in a month no one00:49:09
wants to spend nothing00:49:10
looking ahead in Russia yes Same thing We00:49:14
we are no different from that situation00:49:16
which takes place in Britain or00:49:18
Germany is all alone in the Russian economy00:49:21
everything is the same if they were the same00:49:23
there is a GF indicator00:49:25
everything would be the same Yes, that's why00:49:29
Russia Now no one is planning anything00:49:31
does not predict will not buy full00:49:34
saving00:49:36
with all that it implies for many businesses00:49:40
that's why the question is here again00:49:44
the question is now the game is going very well00:49:46
biggest in the world Listen, I can't do it all00:49:49
I won't be allowed to tell you everything00:49:51
I'm thinking about geopolitics but00:49:54
confrontation the economy is on00:49:56
endurance who can survive who00:50:00
the first one will not give back Whose economy is00:50:05
current deterioration of the situation in geopolitics00:50:08
in general in the world Yes00:50:10
will stay afloat And who will start faster00:50:14
change shoes now this is coming00:50:17
such00:50:18
[music]00:50:20
an important turning point in the world once again00:50:23
because it’s clear that anything is possible00:50:26
fix it a little, but not populist00:50:28
measures But everyone will bluff until00:50:30
last No we can handle it we can handle it00:50:32
we can handle it Yes we will outlive you what00:50:35
will you be the first to give up or start?00:50:37
roll back And we say No you00:50:41
here of course from the same Russian00:50:43
economy, although it is also responsible00:50:44
will fly down This is understandable but there is00:50:48
the only advantage is yes00:50:50
Debt load in contrast to these00:50:52
economics Yes that Debt load00:50:55
of course not catastrophic and even00:50:58
let's talk00:51:02
What00:51:04
default is still like before China, conditionally00:51:07
unlike these countries Well okay that's all00:51:12
necessary00:51:14
In general, Britain understands what is happening00:51:18
with the consumer and it is clear that00:51:21
further will follow from this and00:51:23
Of course, the same indicator came out for us00:51:26
in Germany Well, the same thing What about00:51:30
speaking since 2005 Yes, almost everything00:51:33
the existence of the eurozone there, that's all00:51:36
clearly visible00:51:39
consumer confidence and expectations00:51:42
the consumer climate has all collapsed00:51:46
now there will be massive strikes00:51:48
layoff cuts therefore00:51:51
This is a leading indicator This is a feast00:51:55
indicator at the same time of course00:51:59
More shocking data comes out00:52:02
officially yes00:52:04
Inflation in Germany has reached double digits00:52:08
Let me remind you that the European rate00:52:11
regulator is still close to zero00:52:14
not even three or four or five00:52:18
almost zero00:52:23
10 percent data came out this week00:52:28
for September 10 percent everything is official00:52:31
monthly increase is record plus one and 900:52:35
subsidies have ended Yes because00:52:38
the state gave subsidies and00:52:41
the household sees some of these00:52:44
relaxations there are part of the expenses00:52:46
charged for increased energy prices00:52:50
Electricity and so on but that's all00:52:52
it was in August in September now subsidies00:52:54
run out and that's it There is no subsidy therefore00:52:58
the final manufacturer bears all this00:53:01
accordingly, costs for consumers00:53:04
Although not all manufacturers even receive subsidies00:53:06
they gave Well, checks everywhere were all for00:53:09
population is more expensive00:53:11
adaptations cannot be given constantly00:53:14
Because you're the budget deficit money and00:53:15
he overlap with the printing press what in00:53:17
in principle, the sheet of the route was decided to be done to00:53:20
what did this lead to we see something00:53:22
will come I see. Would you like to try further?00:53:25
subsidize this whole thing00:53:27
through the printing press there will be no inflation00:53:30
11 12 13 the market will fall for a long time and then00:53:34
trillions00:53:36
Do you want to do an experiment like this?00:53:39
the British wanted to see00:53:50
so of course I wonder how the situation is00:53:52
will develop by the end of the year because00:53:54
what's the situation00:53:57
scary all over the world00:54:00
and the government of all countries is all00:54:02
understands00:54:06
there is an opportunity again I say temporarily00:54:09
fix the situation temporarily debt00:54:12
the bubble will burst anyway in the world but not in00:54:14
this year not next year so in 5 years00:54:16
I don’t know, well someday it will burst but00:54:20
Any any government any heads00:54:23
they still want central banks and00:54:25
do their best even the most00:54:28
they come up with nonsense but do everything to make it happen00:54:31
happened Not in front of them Let me leave later00:54:34
from the post Let someone else take care of it all later00:54:35
he answers, he's coming, he only allowed it to happen00:54:38
not me00:54:39
That's why00:54:43
Well, let's see Well, I say it again00:54:46
You probably understand what all this means00:54:50
I don’t want to bring rumors again00:54:53
there was no Channel One policy there00:54:56
we have the same thing again in Russia00:54:59
Yes, everything that happens in Europe in the world00:55:01
everyone is suffering vertically the whole world is flying down00:55:05
And you don’t have to think what if he pushes you00:55:07
damn if the situation is very drastic00:55:09
will worsen or worsen in the market for a long time00:55:11
and all the defaults will happen to banks there00:55:13
that we will win something, no one will00:55:15
won't gain anything even though the eurozone collapses00:55:17
For us, this is probably long-term, of course.00:55:20
this is a blessing It will be pure geopolitics00:55:22
Because half of the countries after the collapse00:55:25
tell us we don’t need any NATO00:55:28
In general, this Greece is defending itself from someone00:55:31
Portugal Spain they are in vain00:55:34
they actually need00:55:36
you pay monthly protected from anyone00:55:39
no one has ever threatened them and never will00:55:41
citizens are very far away therefore00:55:43
Of course, during a breakup there is yes00:55:46
many members will of course come out of there00:55:48
and the issue of organization is in question00:55:51
for Russia geopolitically of course00:55:54
profitable00:55:57
many donors will no longer be there00:56:00
gigantic cash flows that00:56:02
make you want00:56:04
no one even attacks you, no00:56:06
threats pay anyway we pay you00:56:09
hypothetically in the future when you can00:56:11
even a plumber can be protected00:56:14
in general these EU rules of course00:56:18
Well, many countries don’t like it now00:56:21
European Union policies all these00:56:23
membership fees and everything else on this00:56:25
week yes the question was raised again00:56:28
interesting Yes in Spain00:56:30
before Catalans raise the topic again00:56:34
referendum on secession from Spain00:56:38
Well, let's see, read it, google it now00:56:41
I won’t retell the last one00:56:43
the referendum is over00:56:44
who was imprisoned there, who is on the run later00:56:47
there was someone who raised this whole topic because00:56:50
what If this is even hypothetical00:56:51
will happen Yes Catalonia is the main thing00:56:54
Industrial center of all Spain Spain00:56:58
squeezes all the money out of there00:56:59
taxes and then give subsidies Of course00:57:02
this region works for the whole of Spain00:57:05
and then gets part back in the form00:57:07
subsidies Therefore, if Catalonia leads00:57:10
the referendum is divided in Spain too00:57:12
Therefore, there is no way to allow this than everything later00:57:15
it ended when there were prerequisites00:57:18
previous00:57:20
Google it And of course it’s not very good00:57:22
the political situation turned out to be00:57:24
parliamentary elections in Italy there too00:57:27
sound very good now00:57:30
statements that are not good for the eurozone00:57:33
question of coalition for now Yes, I don’t want to yet00:57:36
It is not yet clear With what coalitions00:57:39
still unite on that's what00:57:42
there will be a program00:57:44
one coalition or another, but maybe00:57:48
nice interesting schedule let's see00:57:52
So00:57:54
[music]00:57:55
the data that came out Well, they will force00:57:59
European regulator at least00:58:01
raise rates aggressively in the near future00:58:03
months Well, with all the consequences for00:58:05
economies that are already slipping into00:58:07
recession But what can we talk about here?00:58:10
here to talk about this jump after00:58:12
subsidies that are running out but unlikely00:58:14
it will end for a month here Ahead00:58:17
winter00:58:19
and I don’t know what will happen to gas prices but00:58:22
I know what oil prices will be like by January00:58:24
there will be no more surprises in January and00:58:27
Europe is waiting for Europe is waiting for surprises with00:58:29
America's side00:58:30
who will say, “We can’t do it for you anymore.”00:58:34
don't give in00:58:35
we gave as much as we could00:58:38
because we produce as much as00:58:39
we need we gave you strategic00:58:41
reserve but we can’t have them anymore00:58:42
we will do it, oh yes, and with gas and gas not00:58:45
we can give a lot because we have prices00:58:47
inflation is growing, surprises may be accelerating00:58:49
be very cool00:58:51
closer to November to December00:58:54
so let's see I wouldn't say that00:58:57
here it’s all about inflation00:58:59
it is still very problematic in Europe00:59:02
America close to peaks in a month00:59:04
in two everything will go downhill00:59:06
Europe Not clear yet Not clear00:59:12
It’s clear that the whole market is shaking for a long time00:59:16
in the world but the aggregated index I tell you00:59:18
showed yes again it’s even German00:59:22
It is the eurozone's most defensive asset00:59:24
American bonds This is the most00:59:26
reliable and protective asset protective words00:59:30
for America and for the world for everyone Like you00:59:34
you know they sell out even faster and00:59:36
stronger than stocks00:59:37
So the question is, is there a refuge somewhere before the shelter?00:59:41
for the same pension funds that00:59:43
A priori, according to their declarations, they are obliged00:59:44
always be in assets But if00:59:47
there used to be assets as a refuge and they saved00:59:50
and fulfilled their function during the period00:59:52
panic And the pension fund at least not00:59:55
lost money then now into pensions00:59:58
funds are losing money and many are sitting in01:00:00
shoulders so that they sit on the shoulders because01:00:03
we had profitability just a year ago01:00:05
zero and to earn at least something01:00:08
large funds and banks took over the pyramid01:00:11
repo second third fourth so that at least01:00:14
earn something so now01:00:17
such an oval fall in principle I'm up to01:00:19
I’m still surprised once again that01:00:22
no margin well margin Cola Here are the first ones01:00:24
just started this week as we01:00:26
understand in British01:00:28
holder and pension funds But this01:00:32
the first one just went I'm surprised that they01:00:34
not before, but if the situation is a little01:00:36
it will get worse anyway they will go when01:00:40
the horse will lie down then probably everything01:00:42
the hanging will begin well once again as you see01:00:44
in Germany the situation is also getting worse01:00:46
market for a long time this is the most reliable asset for01:00:48
throughout Europe but does not act as a refuge01:00:51
it will also be sold out; yields are also already01:00:52
close Well once again 11 years is a debt01:00:56
Eurozone crisis01:00:59
And of course Italy01:01:01
4 percent understand that Britain is all that01:01:04
everything happened there01:01:06
European debt market01:01:08
Here01:01:10
The ECB can't do anything01:01:13
support but as you can see he even though01:01:15
supports But what's going on where is it01:01:17
support But if there are no sellers01:01:19
getting bigger and bigger and bigger01:01:22
if margin call01:01:25
and some just say Italy, Spain01:01:27
will have to close the trillion immediately A01:01:29
what will happen here01:01:31
and here there will be Club and panicsale just01:01:35
throughout the market that's why it's a four01:01:38
interestingly we are entering the zone itself01:01:41
turbulence of the height of the debt crisis01:01:43
4 percent is no longer a joke01:01:48
and here you want it or don’t want it Well01:01:51
cannot be allowed even 5 but it is impossible but with01:01:56
5 everything is already clear what will happen01:01:59
and it won’t even stop there 4 you can’t01:02:02
punch through Well, true, but they can’t01:02:07
can not01:02:11
european currency01:02:14
Well, I already explained that it’s clear that 33 weeks01:02:18
Capital attacks from European countries are underway in a row01:02:20
from European assets of course01:02:24
beneficiary America everything that happens in01:02:27
Europe, cash flows are shifting from01:02:29
European continent to American01:02:31
Moreover, many employers' minds are running away01:02:36
businesses due to accelerating inflation due to01:02:38
high energy prices businesses01:02:40
began to flee the country to other countries01:02:44
where are the cheaper energy sources?01:02:51
That's why01:02:53
everything is interconnected, like economics01:02:56
That's how it all happens01:02:58
Of course the European currency should be stopped01:03:00
heavy Well ok increase the rate again01:03:03
once at 075 nothing will increase01:03:06
percentage will not give anything increase by 2-301:03:08
percent Of course it will, but how do you01:03:10
you see, they're not British, they're just about01:03:13
this01:03:14
even the British croaked about it a couple of times01:03:17
just on Monday what can we do there01:03:19
urgently sharply increase by 2 by 3 well01:03:22
it was my idea, I stole it from them01:03:25
suggested we should stop earlier01:03:27
but they won’t make Europeans. Well, it will be01:03:30
panic again I say swap lines01:03:32
they will fill up and of course they will come out with interventions01:03:36
and then it will be deployed when it’s like this01:03:39
the situation will be then and we can talk about01:03:41
the fact that the final happened Well, for now I Well01:03:44
this is how it is, this is how it is, this is how it is01:03:46
086 where the Eurozone was born, right there01:03:50
we're going to 086 after 22 years Well, that's it01:03:54
we'll get there, we won't get there, we'll stop, I don't want to01:03:57
say Well, the picture is as it was01:04:00
remains01:04:02
now in America the rate will be 4 already Well01:04:05
so in Europe it will be two times lower01:04:07
even if it increases by 075 percent Well01:04:09
Discourse of rates Of course it doesn’t work in01:04:12
favor of the euro so far01:04:14
the economic situation is even more so Well okay01:04:17
Let's see, so of course the British01:04:20
took a risk Yes, reduce taxes and increase01:04:24
budget still still a printing press01:04:26
run okay01:04:31
Let's see It's just an experiment on him01:04:33
now let's see why it will even happen01:04:34
carry out now by the end of the year to the national debt01:04:37
Italy Spain KVP will be somewhere around 12001:04:39
us and at the end of 22 years, well01:04:43
Italy here is 150 With this twenty01:04:46
first year where 21 years old 22 years old01:04:49
somewhere around 160 percent01:04:53
under 160 new absolute max maybe01:04:56
165 maybe 16501:05:00
we'll see01:05:03
Okay from a technical point of view now with01:05:06
We end with Europe01:05:08
Well, I shorted everything a little higher than thirteen01:05:12
I think when they break through the creatures, damn it01:05:14
as far as I can hold on01:05:17
we flew even below 12 Well01:05:19
closed there a little 12 above Well01:05:22
first goal 12 it is as it was01:05:23
the second goal is of course 10 to 20 percent01:05:25
below I don’t know I don’t want to guess01:05:29
I don’t want to guess about the plan of the short closed01:05:31
half left for the British pound01:05:34
I closed my shorts in a panic but01:05:36
Well, maybe I’ll restore it there01:05:39
if it flies by 15 then I restored it01:05:41
bye bye the British have shortened Well there01:05:44
sharply listen to 20 figures in two weeks But01:05:47
this is actually a very cool dive 20 figures 2001:05:52
percent [ __ ] up I didn’t expect it myself That is, I01:05:55
I thought by the end of the year only everyone would see how01:05:57
two weeks and all 20 pieces are missing01:06:02
Well, as if the level of death was broken and closed01:06:06
a week along the length of death I'm not talking about much01:06:08
since I spoke therefore from the point of view01:06:09
signal technology is crappy close and so01:06:11
more than a month Yes, if you look at Eurostock01:06:14
600 his death level is 40001:06:17
points there was a line here Well, accordingly01:06:19
the week was closed too, there’s more purpose under it01:06:22
350 here according to the index according to the main one here01:06:26
in Germany Germany01:06:29
11 10 thousand 10 thousand01:06:33
Well, I don’t know about the technology, so far everything is not01:06:36
looks very good but markets are everything01:06:38
now less interested than the situation on01:06:42
debt market than the long market01:06:46
So for now everything is of course bursting at the seams01:06:50
we have it everywhere, I say again, no need01:06:53
no need to say that Russia is good01:06:56
there's something bad there01:06:58
Let's01:07:00
let's end with the developed world01:07:03
Let's move from Europe to America because Chain01:07:06
the reaction in the world is the same everywhere Yes01:07:08
head market long global all markets01:07:11
also globally01:07:12
interconnected this week we saw 401:07:15
ten-year yield percentage01:07:18
bonds01:07:21
Damn me too, I need another month for the life of me01:07:24
I doubted the whole thing now01:07:27
Even people write to me, some were Vasya01:07:29
for real you're for real01:07:31
Well, sometimes you just wake up in the morning01:07:34
you think it can’t be that is01:07:38
pinch me maybe this is all for real01:07:40
sleep Maybe I can't sleep now01:07:43
everything is happening now01:07:45
neither is this all that is in the world of Geopolitics01:07:48
markets can't believe what's happening01:07:50
because01:07:53
the question is how is this always possible? They just could01:07:55
admit this is really what people01:07:58
who manage it all and think it01:08:01
the best people in the world for a reason01:08:04
How could this all be allowed to happen here?01:08:06
and there I am, that's all that is in the world now01:08:09
is happening01:08:10
Sometimes I think it's all a dream but it's not01:08:13
damn it's not a dream and I say and01:08:16
you don't even know what's wrong with the world01:08:18
there will be a depression with unemployment there01:08:22
30-40 percent of the world if the world01:08:25
the debt bubble will burst01:08:28
Yes, it will be worse than the 30s in the USA01:08:33
unemployment is 40 percent on the planet01:08:35
will01:08:37
90 banks on the planet no longer exist01:08:39
will not01:08:41
Okay level scary Well scary for01:08:46
they're all scary01:08:48
it's just the same choice here01:08:53
What if sales continue?01:08:56
44 and a half five percent01:09:01
Well what should I do to print?01:09:08
Everyone has the same choice and they don't have the same choice.01:09:11
do not know how01:09:13
and there are no other models01:09:16
no one else can do anything01:09:18
produce cut paper and more and more01:09:21
Togo01:09:23
so that the American economy is now01:09:24
expand01:09:26
hypothetically you just need checks again01:09:30
give money to the consumer Well Bernanke01:09:33
eighth year, just give your theory to everyone01:09:35
explained told it was used in01:09:37
twentieth year if the economy goes to hell01:09:40
The only thing you can do and need to do is01:09:42
make helicopter money Yes if01:09:44
need it he said I'll be there from the helicopter01:09:46
throw away money And other options01:09:48
no If consumers who are up to their necks in01:09:51
credits can no longer buy everything01:09:52
the only option is to just throw it away01:09:55
money from a plane from a helicopter Well01:09:57
consumer must have money01:09:59
so that he starts buying [ __ ] things again01:10:01
iPhones suck and everything else for01:10:03
the company started making money again01:10:05
there are no other options01:10:10
this is the only thing that can unfold01:10:12
economy01:10:16
will I resort to this too?01:10:19
hypothetically reasoned if you want01:10:22
scenario considered uncontrolled well01:10:25
blow off and long bubble but uncontrollably01:10:27
everything if all central banks understand01:10:30
that we all can't hold back anything01:10:32
Well, will they dare01:10:36
for the sake of saving the economy and our01:10:40
asses01:10:41
allow hyperinflation01:10:44
Well, judging by the actions of the Central Bank01:10:47
Britain probably yes, that is, if01:10:49
the situation is getting out of control yes01:10:52
they will print01:10:55
10 15 20 trillion Let there be inflation 2001:10:59
25 3001:11:01
but they will do it, believe me01:11:05
They don't know how to do anything else01:11:07
Just admit the mistake and clear it up01:11:10
[ __ ] assets toxic give01:11:13
will go bankrupt weak weak Yes write off01:11:16
a bunch of toxic crap is this01:11:20
big losses01:11:21
[music]01:11:22
It’s unlikely that people will go easier again01:11:26
clap01:11:28
and let inflation be 20 25 30 but01:11:32
we saved the economy, but people are poorer later01:11:36
will double again but nothing01:11:38
Okay 4 percent for 10 years01:11:43
for America this is all this is the limit01:11:47
it can't be higher at all01:11:51
what's happening again I say there with01:11:54
assets Yes, once again this is a stock market for us01:11:57
the market is01:11:59
Well, for some it’s just numbers01:12:02
graphs but on a global scale for01:12:05
the market stands in general for the state of the economy01:12:12
these are positions, please note that on the market this is01:12:15
asset positions are held by the largest01:12:17
holders are pension funds all in01:12:19
world pension funds of all countries01:12:22
if we allow further collapse here01:12:25
well just01:12:28
will not be able to Many countries will01:12:31
just pay even a trivial pension01:12:35
so of course until the star is full01:12:38
the situation cannot be allowed to happen. And we are now01:12:40
We are on the border line itself01:12:42
half a checker to star left01:12:46
if the Bank of Britain would probably be closed01:12:48
weeks it was completely different here01:12:50
The border line is of course 4 percent01:12:53
they also started from him Well01:12:57
the British helped there 38 or whatever01:13:00
closed01:13:03
Certainly01:13:04
Well, here's the line if I'm here, here's the chart01:13:08
how much since 90 here is of course the graph01:13:10
60s before your eyes yeah01:13:14
Here is a logarithmic graph of 10 years01:13:17
bonds 10-year bond yield01:13:19
Well, this is what it actually looks like01:13:21
the last 30 years, that is, this is the range01:13:24
essentially which we approached and touched Yes01:13:27
range almost from zero to 90s01:13:30
where everything should end that is us01:13:34
we also buy three houses, this is very01:13:36
large clients even Client in essence01:13:41
we've been bribing since three and a half01:13:43
percent but 4 moments there saw but01:13:45
carefully So of course we bribe01:13:48
with an eye to a year or two, it’s clear that01:13:51
maybe there are slightly more distant bonds01:13:53
buy ten-year-old American ones there01:13:55
it is clear that sooner or later we will see01:13:57
yield reversal downward no matter01:14:00
What will the next one have to go through?01:14:03
quarter but we'll see But we'll see Trust me01:14:06
Well, and bond prices, of course, after01:14:09
such a collapse that happened in 901:14:11
months of course turn upward01:14:12
therefore buy current prices and01:14:15
the most interesting thing is you know what the paradox is01:14:16
What01:14:18
to me Europe is like toxic [ __ ]01:14:20
that is, their gang is Toxic, well, I would01:14:24
they would have a double-by rating everywhere01:14:27
some would give there to Spain to Italy01:14:29
I see, this is rubbish, rubbish01:14:34
America is able of course it is a duty01:14:36
serve her again I've never01:14:38
kept a dollar And then some came across01:14:40
dollar never kept comments and01:14:43
no one saved the American economy01:14:45
in America there is still Booster stock01:14:48
strength and American regulators01:14:52
economy is much larger than that of the whole world and01:14:54
America01:14:56
structure long depth long most01:14:58
big and nothing gets in the way again01:15:00
America to issue 50-year Treasuries01:15:02
hundred-year-old treasury borrow money for01:15:04
50 for a hundred years and the current debt is just at01:15:08
which01:15:09
concentrated in 20 years stretch by 5001:15:12
100 and still at low rates01:15:14
rates will be low anyway it's not01:15:16
high now but you can borrow for a hundred01:15:18
years this rate then low01:15:20
That's why01:15:23
there is no need to say that it’s American01:15:26
the economy will collapse or the Khan's dollar01:15:28
I never kept it, I won’t, and if01:15:31
it's all bad, it'll just be a problem01:15:33
Well, hypothetically this could also be the case.01:15:35
the world is divided into two fronts and there is01:15:38
The Anglo-Saxons and the Japanese support them01:15:40
they are British, well, they are a coalition01:15:43
dollar01:15:45
and the rest of the world Yes, it's almost 2:3001:15:48
ball up to which plus or minus here01:15:51
structure of the Shanghai organization01:15:54
start interacting without a dollar01:15:58
Of course, if moving away from the dollar is all01:16:00
he is gaining more and more in the world01:16:01
gate but very very slow very01:16:04
slowly America do everything to achieve this01:16:06
so that this process does not become fast and01:16:10
there will be sanctions on other countries01:16:11
impose And it’s not profitable But how01:16:13
it's just clear that01:16:15
most exports between countries01:16:19
leaves the dollar then there will be a problem with01:16:22
debt service01:16:23
Well, for now for the next 5-10 years01:16:26
Let's dial at least 5 years about this01:16:27
let's forget altogether01:16:29
this is what will happen then in five years we will01:16:32
nothing to say after five years01:16:34
there are no threats to the dollar Yes it is strong Yes it is01:16:37
will turn around but01:16:39
Therefore, this is the range. We are also close to01:16:41
even 4 percent is too much for him01:16:45
there's a lot of this, that's all the models01:16:49
of course it all ruins everything if we01:16:52
we'll be there by five01:16:54
the situation will be even worse. That is, this is snp01:16:57
will be 3 30001:16:58
maybe maybe three yes if we to01:17:03
5 we get there if we break through 5 that means everything01:17:06
in the world of House here I don’t believe that is the Fed01:17:11
Right here Yes I think01:17:16
gives back and he'll [ __ ] himself like Ivan01:17:18
Britain if we get to 5 Well, all of them01:17:22
they won't care about anything even if they don't01:17:24
cleared the balance Rates do not matter01:17:27
all 5 will defend with all their might01:17:30
they will all come out as unlimited purchases01:17:32
won't give a damn but they won't give 501:17:34
break through so here we come into01:17:37
process with an eye to the next quarter01:17:39
Yes, in the last quarter of this year, but01:17:42
The border line is also very scary01:17:43
maybe it costs 4 but the range is 4 to 501:17:46
this range Where where the Fed will be01:17:49
make a decision but 5 won't let you break through01:17:51
so we also understand if it happens at all01:17:54
everything is bad and they will change their shoes here 4 not yet01:17:57
critical Yes, but taking into account I say01:18:01
fall in inflation expectations over 10 years01:18:03
to anyone below two I say the process in01:18:05
in principle, anticipation for the future has already begun01:18:07
soften01:18:08
so let's see maybe even higher than 401:18:12
we won't go much further Well here01:18:15
level for the US economy total01:18:18
for everyone we've come here to panic01:18:21
can't be allowed01:18:28
It’s just that everything is interconnected Yes, too01:18:33
the big headlines were all American01:18:36
newspapers that mortgage rates are average01:18:39
30-year mortgage rate in the US is almost01:18:41
reached level 7 Well, that's a lie there01:18:44
some wrote about seven 7 there was no yes01:18:46
I think 682 was the peak or maybe 68401:18:50
be Yes, I see. What kind of modern01:18:53
history these are probably the biggest numbers01:18:54
Yes, the US debt mortgage crisis01:18:57
started with consoles there 6 to here 601:19:02
a little higher than 6.5 to now 6.8 is clear01:19:07
that at such rates Americans have mortgages01:19:10
no one will take it at all01:19:13
No one usually has anything above 501:19:16
takes 5 this is the border line for01:19:18
American households Therefore, here01:19:20
when there were flights there were debt crises01:19:22
Yes, and panic, that’s all their task is not higher than 501:19:26
assume here the mortgage is tied to01:19:29
30-year-old gangs and the whole market is long01:19:32
shaking That's where you are nothing01:19:36
you will do here you will not do anything there01:19:37
it's worth it and the Twist program was short01:19:40
we sell distant bribes that is They01:19:42
tried to bribe the far end there01:19:44
sell short just to reduce01:19:46
rates at the far end of which01:19:48
the mortgage was tied, there were opportunities01:19:50
now they are also completely connected01:19:52
The Fed has its hands on it, so there's nothing much to do01:19:56
you can But if the situation gets worse but01:20:00
I'll have to forget about everything again, I'll say it again01:20:02
for the market, that is, once again my certain01:20:05
message I started a lot I bought a lot01:20:09
American stocks are already and almost01:20:13
almost ready to load, probably from the fact that01:20:15
wanted Oddly enough01:20:20
the idea is probably simple01:20:22
what's ahead Well, we're three blocks away01:20:26
fell and of course this is already a strong fall01:20:28
but there is such a mini panic ahead01:20:32
and it should all end there01:20:35
That is, it will all be quick with01:20:38
return movement I don’t want this moment01:20:40
even01:20:41
honestly make a decision about something01:20:44
collect buy therefore I have many shares01:20:47
I bought it at the levels after the fall01:20:49
90 percent of what they will go01:20:51
for another 20 no role no role01:20:55
for me personally for my approach I don’t01:20:58
bought at S&P 44,800 right now01:21:02
after all, we are already 1100 points lower01:21:04
we also cost a decent amount due to the fact that we are still in01:21:07
300 don't go there will be a panic regulator01:21:09
change your shoes and come back01:21:12
protective two days, that’s probably all01:21:15
there will probably be a taxi will be possible01:21:17
Maybe01:21:18
that is, the ending as I told you in01:21:21
the fourth quarter will be that's how it is01:21:24
will look01:21:27
what will they do? Well, there's not much choice.01:21:31
agree01:21:33
and in principle it is clear The stronger it comes out01:21:35
the situation is under control the faster01:21:38
I'll have to change my shoes01:21:40
but America still I think inflation01:21:42
will help with recession and expectations faster01:21:45
It will work faster in Europe I don’t know01:21:48
so you see the market can’t last long either01:21:52
further deterioration is allowed but if01:21:55
talk one month ahead01:21:58
if I read the questions now Yes01:22:01
friends today is still Saturday I01:22:03
one operators Everyone ate and refreshed themselves01:22:08
here's the toilet, if you run away, don't camera01:22:11
turn on01:22:12
long broadcast today01:22:15
really, if I want, okay, pause01:22:19
let's do it means the duck had to be placed01:22:22
somewhere nearby so you don't have to run around01:22:26
Vasily, it makes sense for you to do01:22:29
preferred or raised the bid01:22:32
I don't know Listen here's the truth on Here in01:22:37
damn this situation01:22:39
this week has exhausted me like hell though01:22:42
I did a little something that is01:22:45
you get stress from what01:22:49
trying to understand something01:22:52
impossible01:22:53
trying to figure out what you're trying to do01:22:57
[music]01:22:59
think about what you would do and realize what01:23:02
you do not know01:23:04
and it’s as if your thoughts weren’t wandering around01:23:08
suddenly Damn I'm right and suddenly here I am01:23:10
I say and we Imagine what it is01:23:13
[music]01:23:15
then why have I been waiting and saying there for so many years?01:23:17
and imagine that it's real01:23:18
debt bubble burst01:23:21
I'm getting scared, not even here01:23:25
this text of geopolitical actions01:23:26
that happen no it's scary01:23:27
it becomes it will be Worse than after all01:23:30
policy01:23:31
maybe she can even be01:23:33
will end because no country has01:23:36
there will be no more money01:23:38
banks will burst and will not allocate money01:23:42
no one needs help, everyone needs to be saved01:23:45
will his ass and settle 4001:23:48
percentage unemployment therefore war01:23:50
will stop01:23:53
if it bursts the debt bubble01:23:56
so that's not even what I'm afraid of01:24:00
and here's what01:24:03
So I don’t know what I should do01:24:06
I definitely wouldn’t have walked along this many years ago01:24:11
this trajectory What I've been talking about in recent years and01:24:15
narrated that This is a dead end This is a dead end01:24:19
the path of Japaneseization along the path of Japan to go well01:24:24
their structure is a little different for a long time01:24:27
the economy functions differently01:24:29
Europeans you followed the same path but01:24:33
in your economy this is impossible01:24:36
structure for a long time everything is different there01:24:38
functioning And this is the way Well again01:24:40
What are you for those who listen to everything first01:24:44
Just01:24:45
you can't afford a good one01:24:48
life pensions of one and a half thousand euros01:24:51
can't afford you no money you it01:24:53
everything is in debt01:24:56
we give and pay01:24:59
your economy isn't that great01:25:02
built on a pyramid for as long as you want01:25:04
also you are listening now to this you01:25:06
Do you want to live well too? Take it01:25:08
take a loan second third go01:25:11
live in Bali for a year in the Maldives but01:25:15
in a year I'll have to give it all away01:25:17
Borrow for 2-3 years in two to three years01:25:18
you have to give it back but you can do it for yourself01:25:20
you can't call for a good life but you01:25:22
you can buy it for a while01:25:24
good life but then you have to pay01:25:26
Well, Europe lived like this the whole message01:25:29
its existence for all 20 years01:25:32
increases debt debt all in debt debt01:25:35
duty01:25:38
and there is certainly no need to compare Yes, speaking01:25:42
where it is good Where it is bad in Russia we are01:25:44
We don't live very well according to the Europe page01:25:46
well, it’s not fair to compare at all01:25:50
Russian economy and European and01:25:53
American are developed countries and we01:25:55
we belong to developing countries01:25:57
so to say what to poke there01:26:00
there are such salaries or pensions or01:26:02
the conditions here are such developing friends01:26:05
the economy is developing we have been for years01:26:07
15 behind the West How they developed in01:26:10
development and followed them from America and01:26:13
In general, we’ll remain behind the West for years01:26:16
15 behind01:26:18
Well, this is a developing economy, we are going to it01:26:21
we relate therefore we have other parameters01:26:22
Why compare us with the West at all?01:26:26
we have different parameters and different criteria01:26:28
inflation different income different expenses01:26:34
Now let's get to corporate debt01:26:37
Petrovich asks Yes, everything is fine now01:26:39
interesting01:26:40
the knife itself is next now01:26:43
should happen here again with me01:26:46
There's only one question now next01:26:47
slides there will be only one question They are01:26:50
words must do what they must01:26:52
happen01:26:56
and yes, it can all be done and given01:26:58
could happen in one quarter even already01:27:00
for 4 and after that you can buy the whole01:27:03
I don’t know the American market there. Anything is possible01:27:06
buy but will they let you do it or01:27:08
No01:27:09
Don't know01:27:11
very large losses for banks are at stake01:27:15
if they let you do it then no01:27:17
I know01:27:18
Democrats Republicans are more in favor01:27:21
wall street for the banks they have democrats01:27:23
there have always been other interests, we know01:27:26
which ones and they confirm them this time01:27:30
again one hundred percent their task is not01:27:32
they cut money on other democrats01:27:34
has always been and they are now in power01:27:35
control both the Senate and Congress and01:27:37
their president, therefore, by the way, here's a sneak peek01:27:40
forward to regarding politics she01:27:43
I won’t paint now, let’s move on01:27:45
let's talk01:27:46
it looks like it's all the same01:27:49
the conflict is still going on for a year and a half or two01:27:52
semi-frozen such as Sector01:27:54
Gaza and Israel are probably something like that01:27:56
will be until the government changes01:27:59
at least in the US maybe01:28:01
Republicans will come then01:28:02
everything is a little different unfortunately01:28:09
prepared to announce an emergency meeting in01:28:11
Monday will the rate be raised?01:28:15
didn't see listen a lot of information01:28:18
So if I didn't see something on Friday01:28:20
if there is any news about this01:28:24
I don’t know We might have guys now01:28:27
will look if there is01:28:30
Well, the insertion probably makes no sense01:28:32
and what Waiting and so increase 075 what01:28:35
the difference is two weeks later two01:28:37
weeks earlier, that is, I don’t see the point01:28:40
I don’t see the point in raising the rate maybe01:28:43
maybe they'll change it01:28:47
I don’t know at all I don’t even want to talk01:28:50
I don’t understand why it’s urgent now01:28:51
meeting01:28:54
What to do with the euro01:28:57
Nikonov asks to get rid of01:29:00
dollars or there is no point in changing01:29:03
Well again, please clarify right away01:29:06
question With which ones with cash euros or01:29:09
dollars or with electronic ones01:29:13
Anyway01:29:16
with the euro what do you see happening below01:29:20
parity01:29:21
so far the situation there is worse than in America and01:29:25
it will be worse than America in the long run I'm waiting01:29:28
collapse of the eurozone01:29:30
I don’t know when it will happen in a year01:29:32
in five but it will happen euro01:29:34
exist in such a financial model01:29:36
the eurozone does not commit to a financial model01:29:38
maybe it can't or sooner or later one of01:29:41
countries through referendums will stir up something and01:29:45
there will be a split in Spain in Italy or01:29:47
someone will simply default01:29:50
or01:29:52
It’s just that the current policies will change01:29:56
Well, that's basically how it happens. Well01:30:00
once again this is a financial model where countries01:30:03
with different economies under one01:30:05
monetary policy01:30:06
countries with different economies under one01:30:10
under a single regulator under a single01:30:13
monetary policy will last for a long time01:30:15
they can't, that's all01:30:17
Believe me, if the Greeks are there, the Spaniards will come out01:30:20
their currencies come from the eurozone and they01:30:23
will be cheaper than the euro two times yes01:30:25
debts are written first, currencies are written second01:30:27
will be cheaper and immediately export to01:30:30
tourism will be many times better01:30:33
better and so on but they can't01:30:35
make an increasingly cheaper currency yet01:30:38
in the eurozone they need it for development01:30:41
the benefits of the cheap euro all these years01:30:44
used the eurozone first01:30:46
Germany paid the most01:30:48
dated saved everyone01:30:50
taxpayers saved all this01:30:52
Spain, Britain and everyone else are not01:30:55
received the most important advantage01:30:56
cheap currency because Germany exit01:30:59
from the eurozone01:31:00
The German mark will become the most expensive01:31:02
currency in the world01:31:04
and it will kill everything01:31:06
the entire economy is exported and the German01:31:09
export-oriented economy01:31:11
and that's all01:31:12
that's why the Germans are the first who don't want everything01:31:15
then everything is clear what will happen01:31:17
no one will buy01:31:21
conditionally BMW if she becomes there just in01:31:24
three times more expensive than American01:31:26
dog handlers there are conditionally different from Lexus01:31:28
now we take one class of cars there yes But01:31:31
if the European one becomes much more expensive01:31:33
than Japanese there yes Or American but01:31:36
no one will spend German money And so01:31:38
will happen01:31:39
so everything is clear here too01:31:42
and Greece Spain Italy needs more01:31:46
cheap currency and it is not possible01:31:48
take to increase exports01:31:52
mine01:31:53
Okay, let's push back a little but01:31:57
everything is fine but that's just what it is01:31:59
meeting yes, that is, it is clear that the market01:32:01
he's been asking for a long time, well01:32:04
it comes out late for August but not01:32:08
the deflator is the salvation on the spot01:32:10
PC to base index of personal expenses01:32:13
consumption is the only thing01:32:15
look at the Federal Reserve, yes, well, supposedly they are watching01:32:16
it is clear that they are, as I already said,01:32:19
a long time ago they were no longer worth anything01:32:21
have been watching us on your radio for many years01:32:24
inflation unemployment These are all replies that01:32:26
We're supposedly looking at something and they don't give a [ __ ].01:32:28
look only at the market for a long time no longer01:32:30
why therefore According to the data01:32:33
[music]01:32:34
Here even this is a given year, but if01:32:37
look month by month again sharply01:32:39
the increase there is 06 in my opinion Yes, much more01:32:43
Well, that’s all, inflation is not in August01:32:47
even in September the data that came out is01:32:49
not by deflator just general inflation01:32:53
growth continues everywhere01:32:56
therefore they will of course be forced to increase01:32:58
bet that two hours earlier on01:33:01
two hours later01:33:02
two two weeks earlier or later01:33:04
does not play a role, but for now the data that01:33:07
they go out and force them to do it01:33:09
but otherwise again01:33:12
buyers on the market for a long time under01:33:14
there is simply no negative rate and01:33:18
there won't be anyone who wants to sit in01:33:20
a falling asset still under the real one01:33:22
really negative high negative01:33:24
bet that's why the whole world is collapsing for a long time01:33:27
because there are no positive ones01:33:29
real returns Nowhere do you have in01:33:33
There is not a single asset in the world right now that01:33:35
I would just fight off the inflation of such assets01:33:37
there is not one in the world01:33:40
if only again with inflation in Germany01:33:44
10 Their returns on the bond market were 1001:33:48
Fine01:33:49
but there are also so many ten years 2 and 301:33:53
inflation 10 minus 8 almost percent01:33:56
your real profitability for the year And you also01:33:59
you ask why there are no buyers01:34:01
Why are there sellers?01:34:05
and the most interesting thing is another week01:34:08
behind01:34:09
Well, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunk again01:34:12
so01:34:13
as we see, the Fed still cannot01:34:17
nothing to clear those declared plans for us01:34:20
should not where there if so01:34:23
sale who knows what else there are01:34:25
once again it's a vicious circle01:34:28
the British didn't even start selling01:34:31
the Fed has already increased Well, it’s good there from 901:34:34
trillion to 200 billion Russian01:34:38
and the situation is already such that you again01:34:42
hundreds of billions should start01:34:43
print month01:34:46
it will be forever01:34:50
the markets will now extort money01:34:52
Of course I'm all fine I can already see it01:34:55
I understand how all this is developing, it’s already01:34:58
for 16 years we have seen the situation many times01:35:03
anyway, so that normal can begin01:35:06
sustainable economic growth and calm01:35:08
enter the market several years in advance01:35:12
calmly come in should happen again01:35:14
times one process01:35:16
junk bond yield of course yes01:35:19
they fly away, it’s all clear and logical01:35:22
Well, we're already getting closer to 1001:35:25
panic is still growing, where will it stop?01:35:28
I know 10 11 12 then I'm already like this01:35:31
how many will be allowed As they say Why us01:35:34
we are monitoring this debt of American01:35:36
corporations Yes Fed American debt01:35:40
the corporation will not buy it out, it buys it out01:35:41
Public debt on your balance sheet Yes01:35:43
corporations don’t buy our balance sheets01:35:46
so there will be no support here01:35:48
Here is a debt of almost 12.5 12 6 trillion Yes01:35:54
although before covid it was 10, here are two s01:35:56
half a trillion more01:35:57
covered all sorts of crap01:36:00
once again 30 percent of this garbage is from01:36:04
of all corporations 30 percent is01:36:05
the value is very large As you understand01:36:07
this is 4 or even 5 4 Let trillion01:36:10
dollars of garbage crap is very01:36:12
many people hold this this holds banks01:36:17
accordingly, if you clear away debris01:36:19
banks on the planet have to lose 401:36:22
trillion to cleanse the system of01:36:24
zombie companies from at least garbage01:36:26
toxic debt if 4 trillion01:36:29
it won't be written off by every bank in the world01:36:32
there will be no banks on the planet01:36:35
everyone will go bankrupt but allow the cleanup01:36:39
some kind is necessary because it never lasts01:36:42
can it [ __ ] continue Well what are you talking about 2001:36:45
trillion to make and 30 Well, so that01:36:48
covered means covered to the end all that01:36:50
whether01:36:52
Well, try at least two trillion01:36:54
write it off, I understand it's painful, but it's01:36:57
it's necessary but it's necessary01:36:59
but the latest financial crisis is powerful and01:37:02
were at a ratio of long American01:37:04
companies cvp usa here 46 45 percent is01:37:07
there was a peak and they didn’t allow 45 46 always01:37:11
there was a crisis and the crisis cleared it up01:37:15
the ratio fell because that's all01:37:17
companies went bankrupt, debts were written off01:37:20
this is a loss for banks And after that01:37:23
the normal cycle began again01:37:26
inflate again, reborn and so on01:37:30
now not zero not 46 percent but 5001:37:36
percent of this ratio is still the world Well01:37:40
history doesn't know01:37:42
but doesn't live you can't exist01:37:45
With this ratio01:37:48
Well damn, clear it even for five01:37:50
percent no longer plays a role here01:37:53
we need to clear it by 10 to at least 4001:37:56
50 to 40 that is American debt01:37:59
corporation 12.5 American economy01:38:02
2401:38:04
but despite the fact that she is now two blocks away01:38:07
in a row Already falling I'm afraid now I won't be01:38:09
24 23 221 And this crap continues to grow01:38:14
we will now get the ratio soon01:38:17
50 percent corporate debt and under 6001:38:23
in a quarter or two we'll get it01:38:30
but it’s ok Well, 040 percent it’s not night01:38:35
Well, here I didn’t exceed the percentage01:38:37
just divided one another Therefore, so that01:38:38
for clarity Clear 45 percent01:38:41
now 50 critical earlier this is it01:38:45
crisis With this ratio began01:38:47
when the mortgage crisis started blowing01:38:49
same ratio Well, it’s good that 15 16 17 1801:38:52
for another year, plus or minus, the border guards kept01:38:55
the relationship has been said many times, but it’s quits01:38:58
this is all the printed loot, still there when01:39:00
they printed everything in the same place Well, you saw how much01:39:03
A zombie company has entered the market.01:39:04
I just drew a prototype car and that’s it01:39:07
damn it's a billion dollars01:39:08
occupy I will build in two years01:39:10
factories Give me what you have, here are two01:39:13
drawing two trucks All I'm a startup on01:39:17
billion and such crap of such companies01:39:20
damn it turned out just hundreds where are these now01:39:23
IPO of the last 0 0 -99 percent01:39:27
stock falls 0 Riven and Shmiven and all sorts01:39:32
all zero But this led01:39:36
and write off everything on debts to what extent01:39:39
took up how many garbage companies01:39:41
who were about to go bankrupt01:39:43
free money01:39:45
gave them the opportunity to borrow Yes, it doesn’t matter Under01:39:47
what bet was under the twentieth under 3001:39:50
damn [ __ ] when in a period of euphoria01:39:53
just, well, you're dead Dana01:39:56
come on like cue balls X and give All Xs gives01:40:01
people didn’t look at what to give to whom01:40:03
What should people invest in?01:40:06
head XXX01:40:11
and now we need to clear everything01:40:14
10 percent Well, okay, let's write off 1001:40:16
percent of crap01:40:18
Well, at least one and a half trillion, but it’s necessary01:40:21
at least write it off Well at least01:40:25
that's a lot of one and a half trillion for01:40:28
write off the global financial system01:40:30
losses01:40:32
she won't stand it01:40:34
she won't stand it01:40:36
but until that happens01:40:40
there will be nothing further, calmly you01:40:43
you can further aggravate this with printed ones01:40:45
with machines you are [ __ ], destroy it even more01:40:48
Even more debt, long gas01:40:49
state debt board everything will only get worse01:40:51
give the cleansing process two quarters01:40:54
Give Let everyone go bankrupt Give Yes01:40:57
banks will lose before the banks their shares collapse01:40:59
twice as good Well, well, idiot01:41:01
how much is 100 dollars now 50 dollars01:41:03
worth a moment So what01:41:05
Well give and here we are now Approaching01:41:08
such a milestone01:41:10
fourth quarter where plus or minus01:41:14
there will be some understanding01:41:16
because the bank of britain pissed01:41:20
It’s already clear And investors are all thinking01:41:23
thought it means the rest are now here01:41:25
a little bit if we sell and it starts01:41:28
panic and for food and eggs Bay Fed is possible01:41:32
now the next month is for us and we and01:41:36
we will witness which road01:41:40
after all, the economy and central01:41:43
banks and then everything will be clear01:41:48
or allow recession and cleansing01:41:51
natural process is painful01:41:54
or to hell with inflation01:41:57
she will remain high and will get higher01:42:00
but we are saving the economy, this is more important01:42:04
it will be positive for the stock market but01:42:07
in a year the situation will be completely cleared up01:42:09
Well, all of this is all they will just buy time01:42:12
for another year but then there will be more01:42:14
more painful01:42:16
or they may not buy and go through01:42:18
hard landing phase natural01:42:21
the process is interesting, we have come to this01:42:24
mark for three quarters in a row, everything fell01:42:28
bond markets stock markets Q301:42:30
fourth quarter will be final01:42:33
a chord and everyone will need a regulator01:42:35
make a very important final decision01:42:38
one of them is positive for the markets01:42:41
Of course yes, if everyone gives up. And this is01:42:44
will open up the markets and there may even be01:42:46
Hai, let's rewrite Then in a year s&p is not01:42:48
I exclude01:42:49
The second one is not very good at bending01:42:52
line further Yes allow a recession01:42:55
hard landing but stay the same01:42:57
to fight inflation01:43:00
Well, I don’t know what this might lead to01:43:03
before the bubble collapses, they understand this too01:43:06
I understand you are losing understand I don't01:43:08
understands I don’t know what I’ll choose I don’t know01:43:12
SMP period 1st quarter three candles all three01:43:17
black Let the swans there are three black crows01:43:21
or whatever they are and they are a fan of Japanese01:43:23
candles but only for long periods of time of course01:43:25
use third quarter formations01:43:28
we closed everything in a row anyway01:43:31
mark 329 although we closed s&p01:43:33
a little bit even below 3,600 it was all like that01:43:37
again for the third time in almost the last01:43:41
It's probably closed for the third time in 40 years01:43:43
s&p 3rd quarter is about a minus, usually this is01:43:46
leads to at least another Quarter 201:43:48
we fall, in principle, logically in October01:43:50
It seems like all the cards for falling are still there01:43:54
and that’s why everything here seems to be not very good01:43:56
The US fiscal year closed well01:44:01
and nine months are behind us01:44:04
results of these 9 months according to the coolest in01:44:09
companies in the world that are included in the index01:44:11
S&P 500 before your eyes01:44:13
Yes Looking at these numbers we can say that01:44:17
this is one of the worst years in history01:44:19
American stock market is a fact01:44:21
it is a fact01:44:23
but when such Microsoft mammoths fall01:44:27
and Google Amazon and 35 percent there01:44:29
face book -50 yes01:44:33
Media conductor with general semiconductors01:44:37
NVIDIA minus 60 Intel -50 qualcom minus01:44:40
40 AMD minus 55 Micron -5501:44:45
Hi-tech Software damn -50 -40 -40 -5001:44:52
[music]01:44:53
banks -35 -35 -4001:44:58
seems cheaper01:45:03
Well, open it01:45:04
animators and you understand that it’s not very01:45:07
First of all, it's cheaper01:45:10
that she used to work, that I did too01:45:14
paid attention as a moment of reversal Well01:45:17
we are close again I say we are close to01:45:20
panic and close to what the final01:45:22
moment but squeeze can moment squice01:45:25
this is a sharp collapse01:45:27
after which just central banks01:45:30
at least someone in the world is like the jack-in-the-box01:45:32
jumps out and tries to roll everything back but01:45:35
close to this if you just look01:45:38
by the percentage of companies trading higher01:45:40
two-day moving average then came01:45:42
Friday's influx probably approached01:45:45
at the 10 percent mark 10 percent01:45:46
remains in an upward trend01:45:48
the largest company in America that is01:45:49
it says that's what everything is already falling01:45:53
Very powerful Of course take 2008 there01:45:56
this coefficient was 0 but if the last01:45:59
three plus minus strong crisis collapses Yes01:46:01
you can see perfectly well that we are close01:46:04
here you go01:46:07
behind this ratio01:46:10
in normal well in normal01:46:13
controlled01:46:15
watch the collapse correction process01:46:17
of course it is necessary and possible01:46:19
at the moment when the regulators, if any,01:46:23
stick to your line Well, of course that’s all01:46:26
you can score That is, if the goal is the same01:46:29
Yes, a hard landing, but we will defeat inflation01:46:33
If01:46:34
they will stick to this line until01:46:37
end of the year01:46:39
You don’t have to look at this, but01:46:41
ratio, as it were, a moment once again for01:46:43
almost turning around is already very good01:46:46
if you look at the percentage of course01:46:49
companies that have updated minimums for01:46:51
the last 52 weeks, that is, for a year01:46:53
Well, here too, probably taking into account Friday01:46:55
if only the ratio were much higher01:46:57
back on Thursday the result of Thursday given01:46:59
case Well, that is, we also saw that too01:47:02
the indicator will soon go off scale, well maybe01:47:05
he might be close to panic that's when01:47:07
Same01:47:09
Well, a signal is coming to turn around. That's it01:47:12
There are also different indicators of course01:47:13
look But the funniest thing is despite01:47:17
quite an impressive correction01:47:19
40% the same one bought us in addition Yes, S&P is still not enough01:47:23
25 percent fell there this year01:47:26
so not so much that is01:47:27
decent correction but shares don't look01:47:31
they don't look cheap now01:47:34
cheap and once again American profits01:47:37
corporations well01:47:39
normalized graph from one point to01:47:41
at a certain intermediate time01:47:43
period of time That is the Market01:47:46
just up to the corporation's profits before that01:47:49
continued to grow, plus or minus, for quarters01:47:51
last quarter by the way data on01:47:54
corporate profits were revised to01:47:56
I don’t remember the exact direction of decline01:47:58
growth but it is much worse than expected01:48:01
expected That is, everyone has counted here yet01:48:03
no As you see the last one in Well there you go01:48:07
this white graphic is white and blue until01:48:08
the last piece is not there yet01:48:10
only counted this week01:48:12
Moreover, the data turned out to be much worse and if01:48:14
Subtract oil from 500 then01:48:19
of course quarter after quarter decline in profits01:48:22
corporations collectively explain barely01:48:25
Only the oil sector turned into a plus01:48:26
oil and gas That's all in the quarter01:48:30
Which hour ended and according to the results01:48:32
September of course we can safely say01:48:35
that the corporation's income is quarter to quarter01:48:37
will show the minus in its entirety Yes, even taking into account01:48:40
oil sector which is well the last01:48:42
time it is clear that prices are no longer rising01:48:44
No, they don’t grow, that is, here we are like01:48:47
at least here in the plane just below with glue01:48:49
Well, these two graphs seem to be01:48:52
broke away from each other if here they are01:48:53
normalized at a certain01:48:54
time interval these two graphs are like me01:48:56
already explained a year and two and three and five01:48:59
back Why are these two graphs always01:49:01
will converge Yes corporations profit01:49:03
corporations even if they grow but the market is at01:49:05
the lead sometimes grows twice as fast01:49:08
three four times faster than they grow01:49:10
corporate profits01:49:12
Apple shares grew 108 times faster than01:49:17
The profits of the company itself grew 8 times01:49:21
ratio 1 to 8 is the largest01:49:24
the bubble in 10 years there Apple only doubled01:49:27
revenue01:49:29
Just01:49:32
and there was no profit or doubled the profit 6001:49:35
billions they have revenue there01:49:36
kartala now now 90 to plus 5001:49:39
their revenue profit there well good plus01:49:41
100 here shares plus 800 for this period for01:49:44
They haven't done it for 10 years, but that's okay.01:49:47
all due to buybacks01:49:49
they chewed through the entire pillow and now they occupied01:49:52
money and with this borrowed money01:49:53
continued to buy stories for hundreds01:49:55
billions Normal in general This is generally01:49:57
It’s okay to pump your shares in debt even01:50:01
if you borrow money and keep pumping And01:50:04
This is Wall Street, here everything is possible, well01:50:07
it turns out the same gap when shares01:50:10
let's just say they grow faster than they grow01:50:12
arrived now again but we must01:50:15
just these two graphs will converge taking into account01:50:17
that everything can be expected here01:50:19
results of September Well, a small increase01:50:23
Let them remain at the same level01:50:25
December, based on the results of this quarter, we01:50:27
down to people, but then with me closer to01:50:31
for at least three this is more or less01:50:33
fair to be 300001:50:36
There they will meet There they will meet01:50:39
therefore, to say that the market has become no longer01:50:42
overheated indicator yes ratio01:50:44
US market capitalization01:50:46
I shared the same thing01:50:49
Here before two indicators of two01:50:52
I just didn’t make the indicators as a percentage01:50:54
I started translating, I’ll say it, well01:50:56
normal01:50:57
normally fairly priced market01:51:00
it is considered 120 percent yes if we take01:51:02
market in trillions of dollars and01:51:04
trillion dollar market Yes and01:51:06
American individual entrepreneurs in trillions of dollars Yes01:51:08
Now, if you divide one another then01:51:11
ratio 120 is normal 100 110 Well01:51:14
120 is normal, still an acceptable ratio01:51:17
in which the market is not considered a bubble01:51:18
or is considered even undervalued if01:51:20
weaving is an indicator Well, even by chance01:51:23
current correction Well okay we are now01:51:24
160 100 150 there yes plus or minus Well let it be01:51:28
there will be 15001:51:30
at least you still need 10-15 percent01:51:33
20 to fall to01:51:35
this ratio was more or less01:51:37
Normal, well, that is, we’re talking about again01:51:41
the fact that there are 300 and maybe 600 points01:51:43
yes, that is, there are 3,30001:51:46
up to this psnp range more or less01:51:49
Fair Well, despite the fact that it’s American01:51:52
the economy won't slow down much unless01:51:54
will slow down of course below 500 songs01:51:58
rewind, I'll take those from the calculation for now01:52:00
the numbers we have based on the results of the past01:52:03
22 years ago there is a trillion American01:52:05
economy01:52:06
if you look at01:52:09
same01:52:11
SMP by01:52:14
indicator01:52:17
future01:52:19
what the future [ __ ] asks for appears on01:52:22
next year is the main one01:52:23
cartoonist01:52:24
Forward pida That's it Well, no plus or minus01:52:29
there's something very attractive here01:52:31
something well the banks are good01:52:34
next year's sights look like 801:52:37
8 7 there are of course green spots there01:52:40
a lot but mammoths are just like you see01:52:43
Microsoft 20 Apple 21 is Forward And this is01:52:47
Well, staff estimates for next year01:52:49
there, let's say you can think so Well, face01:52:53
the book really doesn't look that great01:52:55
and bad here01:52:57
I bought it there and now for my briefcase01:53:01
of course added01:53:02
Amazon is still stealthy I see01:53:07
That's why it's like here01:53:12
Well, I don’t see that the banks seem to be yes. But if01:53:18
admit a recession And this is again01:53:20
process01:53:22
it's a process01:53:24
restructuring once again Debt recession01:53:27
it's still a process of socialization01:53:28
Dolgov is01:53:30
losses for banks therefore despite their01:53:34
attractive and seemingly not expensive01:53:36
according to some parameters01:53:39
not ready to buy them Well, if about PS01:53:43
take how much annual revenue too01:53:45
now companies are valued, it’s like01:53:48
I don't want to buy anything at all01:53:52
Price to sales Sorry, the norm is considered01:53:55
two even one of 718 Well, it’s good if01:53:58
the company shows rapid growth rates01:54:01
From year to year Well, let there be three01:54:05
Damn here, not two, not three, not yet01:54:11
not two not three nothing special here everything01:54:14
aggregate psnp is still very much there01:54:16
quite high if you take the total and here01:54:19
at the expense of these monsters again, that is01:54:21
I haven't added any of these to my portfolio.01:54:24
technology companies they have broken through everything01:54:26
Updated their minimums and they now have more01:54:29
close down there at 10-20 percent01:54:31
fall so I only bought Small caper01:54:34
in my portfolio of American stocks01:54:36
only a company that has already fallen there01:54:37
90 percent and I don’t [ __ ] know anymore01:54:40
they have been looking for the bottom for a long time, that is, many stocks01:54:43
fell six months ago, so it’s trampling01:54:46
at the bottom that's why further movement01:54:48
down will be on these guys here on01:54:51
these guys01:54:54
Why Because their multipliers01:54:56
weight Yes, their multipliers distort everything01:54:59
they haven't cooled down very much yet01:55:04
still very expensive Despite the fact that everything01:55:06
they have already fallen by 30-35 percent01:55:08
some are 40-50 they are still all01:55:11
expensive01:55:13
Well, that’s just how much NVIDIA has fallen01:55:16
10 annual revenues still despite01:55:19
for the current collapse at the beginning of the year at 6001:55:22
still 10 annual gates01:55:25
where is his [ __ ] logic?01:55:29
Bye yes you are stormy Ross no one was watching01:55:33
but when there is no more rapid growth for a year01:55:35
year quarter quarter everything must come01:55:37
back to normal As much as it should01:55:39
be as everything is written in the textbooks01:55:43
that's why we are so Well, we have 10 there01:55:47
10,700 almost closed for a week somewhere01:55:50
I don’t want to pick up my phone now Well01:55:53
first goal 10 what's left there 701:55:55
percent Well, it’s clear that we are up to him01:55:57
let's get to this minus 34 percent01:56:01
minus 35 is already a rollback, now we see Well, minus01:56:05
40 will be good, the rollback is 10 thousand01:56:07
points minus 40 is it worth it or not01:56:09
Let's wait anyway01:56:12
date October 15 and let's see how from 10 to01:56:17
15 read all Apple Google Amazon and01:56:19
all the funk That's probably all there will be01:56:23
understandable If I reported this week01:56:26
Nike look how profits collapsed01:56:29
happened twice this week01:56:31
micron read 100 the same profit in two01:56:34
times immediately collapses01:56:36
Everyone doesn’t really want forecasts.01:56:40
upvoted because they killed before that Well01:56:43
that is, even current FedEx reports are already01:56:46
he all collapsed there facebook sun01:56:50
again announces the reduction of the giant01:56:52
personnel Well, that is, all companies now01:56:54
the shitty Gaidans will give and01:56:57
very lousy forecasts and many01:57:02
that's why they won't even make it01:57:04
I wouldn't be surprised. I say that it's a percentage.01:57:09
Apple and Microsoft may fall 10-2001:57:11
the last one here we have the last one01:57:15
resisted01:57:16
first goal 142 100 Come on 140 we're on this one01:57:19
Apple week I finally touched it01:57:22
By the way, they started pouring data01:57:25
they started pouring it worse than the market there in general01:57:28
more market after the news that they are not01:57:31
are going to expand production of new01:57:32
iPhone due to increased demand for it01:57:35
no, so we will produce so much01:57:39
the same as before01:57:41
demand may turn out to be even worse based on facts01:57:44
that is, they understand that demand is higher01:57:47
it definitely won't be, it could be worse01:57:49
most likely it will be worse Well, that's it01:57:51
Apple and went it very expensive even01:57:54
100 dollars if 40 percent more01:57:56
will go now 140 Well at 100 before the fall01:57:59
for another 40 dollars Well, at least it’s possible somehow01:58:02
speak justice but in my opinion01:58:06
to be fair on Apple it's 8001:58:08
based on current realities this is 8001:58:11
dollars is the maximum, there is more here01:58:13
the country is a very big bubble Let's see01:58:15
if there is a forecast for the next quarter01:58:18
bad and won't live up to Apple's expectations01:58:21
now Well, he's flying to hundreds01:58:24
from 130 there may be three minutes per pass01:58:29
Market how mammoths fly01:58:34
Last year we saw Amazon like -2001:58:38
NVIDIA Minus There's 30 damn it and all the rest01:58:41
that is, nothing gets in the way01:58:43
in a minute at the postmarket you can fly there01:58:47
Well, in general, this is from Frank, how is he01:58:49
was so it is a downward trend then01:58:52
there is so far the first goal 4 may be in01:58:54
within the channel even 3500 that is, well01:58:57
mammoths are expensive, that is, I’m not saying01:58:59
that there are a lot of companies in America01:59:01
already interesting and promising01:59:03
interesting, definitely stupid and good01:59:05
prices are already too high01:59:08
Well, just to hell, well, it’s clear that01:59:11
when mammoths push the market down, that's it01:59:13
everything comes under pressure equally well01:59:15
when are Cola margins for funds or01:59:18
someone01:59:19
sales are across the entire portfolio. What about01:59:21
do something What to do01:59:24
and here is the graph that forces me too01:59:27
think one last time Yes01:59:29
and those Yes Aisha on yourself World when01:59:34
collected All world markets stocks Yes in01:59:37
one and Typhoid is the dynamics of world markets01:59:39
shares also pulled back their peak by almost 2701:59:43
percent yes here are all the markets in the world01:59:47
and we’ve also arrived, I’ll tell you right away01:59:50
results of the week, this line is certainly broken01:59:51
yes, that is, there are 99 and if not 98 s01:59:55
half at the end of the week We of course01:59:57
this line has been broken Well, someone will02:00:00
draw another level here02:00:01
there is one there, yes you can of course draw 9502:00:04
Well, in short, we are in this range02:00:06
Now we find that there is another 3-4 percent02:00:11
down and02:00:13
and acceleration and panic02:00:16
so looking at all this where is02:00:18
yield on the debt market Where is it located?02:00:22
All world stock markets Where are they located?02:00:26
currencies everywhere02:00:30
Moment of Truth02:00:33
and it will be decided in October02:00:36
well, maximum in November October and November02:00:38
will be decisive for the global economy02:00:42
for all financial markets02:00:44
Certainly02:00:45
mini-panic as always the markets will try02:00:48
do it02:00:49
forcing to move your rolls faster02:00:53
regulators are forced to02:00:55
changing shoes markets all the time02:00:57
money helps like eighteen02:00:59
not so long ago it all happened because02:01:02
if the Fed had not changed its shoes then, but02:01:05
if it all ended not 30 percent02:01:07
market correction would have been another minus 2002:01:10
took a week to draw but he forced02:01:12
change the Fed's shoes because02:01:13
under control came out all at the same time02:01:16
it fell just like in the twenties02:01:18
year at the same time everything and Debt02:01:20
pyramid and stock market in this weight02:01:23
It’s funny that now there are no protective assets02:01:26
they are selling absolutely everything in this and02:01:29
It would be a paradox if there were assets that02:01:32
stood still or grew were protective02:01:35
to hell with it on the stock market they would02:01:37
scored and the Fed didn’t give a damn about it02:01:41
what is happening in the markets but unfortunately02:01:43
video falls02:01:45
that is, this is another blow to pensions02:01:48
goes to the largest funds02:01:51
their bankruptcy As you understand02:01:54
can't be allowed that's all02:01:57
but at the same time you need to clear the tree02:02:00
[ __ ]02:02:01
and prevent collapse That's it, well02:02:07
the picture is beautiful Well, the last slide is up02:02:09
wool is an index02:02:13
emerging markets yes Where including02:02:15
Russia is included Well, it should be noted how many02:02:18
Actually it would have closed now in September02:02:21
first of the year minus 49 percent yes minus02:02:25
49 percent at the beginning of the year, well, not here02:02:27
first year here from Peak although it is possible02:02:30
I count Pika too Well, we’re also not far02:02:33
from a developing company so to speak02:02:37
markets have come off even taking into account everything02:02:39
happened Clearly If it weren’t for the residents02:02:40
Russian02:02:45
points here is a ruble 150 dollars of course02:02:48
other numbers but what we are talking about is that02:02:51
we have at02:02:53
with the fall of the mamba minus 50 The whole world is 4002:02:58
rolled back02:02:59
Here he is, too, in Pogranichny02:03:02
milestone thirty, that is, another 12 percent02:03:04
10 11 12 percent left down essentially02:03:08
there is a Rubicon, here you can still fall02:03:11
Well, the most interesting thing is that it’s still Goldman02:03:15
and Morgan many Invest home banks02:03:18
foreign large funds02:03:21
still rely more on02:03:23
emerging markets not Europe it02:03:27
distributions from the market that is, of course02:03:30
raw materials cycle raw materials everything collapsed due to02:03:35
because of the strong dollar, but raw materials02:03:38
There may still be a strong cycle ahead02:03:40
actually if the economy rules02:03:42
recession or will come to its senses through flooding02:03:44
well it will warm up again just raw materials02:03:47
therefore, in principle, it is logical that on this02:03:49
corrections can be purchased with a view02:03:52
some raw materials but again in India02:03:55
everything is expensive in America as you saw there02:03:57
all companies are already expensive that's why02:04:00
It’s not clear where to buy in Russia, well02:04:02
Russia02:04:03
another story02:04:06
that's why this is the overall picture02:04:10
world Yes, interesting quarter closure02:04:13
but it clearly suggests that the race was closed for02:04:16
minimum marks for all indices in02:04:20
the world according to absolutely which one you are02:04:22
now everyone in the world has seen perfectly02:04:24
assets Closed this quarter at02:04:28
minimum levels But this is a signal for that02:04:31
that not everything is over bad means02:04:34
October November wait for the final drama02:04:38
that's all I hope you understand the message02:04:43
everything will be fine with the regulators soon too02:04:46
Interesting02:04:48
So a couple of questions passed two hours I'm in02:04:50
Russia stayed on track02:04:52
here two hours Not necessary Here necessary02:04:55
30 minutes maximum, strong geopolitics02:04:58
I won't climb today02:05:01
Vladimir Kovalev asks Hello02:05:04
Vasily I want to deposit 10 million rubles02:05:05
what percentage would you02:05:07
invest crypto in Russian American shares02:05:10
Thanks for the answer02:05:18
complex issue02:05:21
complex issue02:05:24
Well, crypto is clear, it’s 10 percent more02:05:27
then you don’t need 10 percent, it’s through the roof02:05:29
Well, although in the current situation, okay ok 1502:05:32
it’s normal even if it gives 200 percent02:05:35
listen well02:05:37
15 to 45 Okay then 15 and OK02:05:43
Well, gold percent is 5. Ok, we have 20 percent.02:05:47
Well Russia America I would be 50/50 at night02:05:50
so that dollars rubles and and markets That is02:05:54
this is getting interesting and this is interesting02:05:57
that is, compared to those marks02:05:59
which were02:06:00
three blocks ago of course it’s a lot now02:06:03
everything interesting there is a question Where is the ending02:06:07
question Where is the ending? And of course it’s interesting and02:06:10
The Russian market is interesting at the current time02:06:11
very interesting moment02:06:13
this is not American02:06:17
so you have to buy it, but no one02:06:21
no one ever understands the bottom02:06:22
will never catch you, but it's just you02:06:25
understand what you are buying at least02:06:28
assets at a more or less fair price02:06:32
which in the foreseeable future you02:06:35
you'll see And even if you're wrong02:06:38
you understand that most likely it’s not like that02:06:40
a long period of time will pass by02:06:43
which you will freeze the money and give02:06:45
just waiting for this wrong02:06:48
those who bought Bought in December02:06:52
American stocks in bubble stage02:06:55
many price tags for many promotions are not02:06:58
will never come back again Well never02:07:01
not in a hundred years even many companies02:07:04
Price tags like this will never be shown again02:07:05
the same mammoths to return to those Hays02:07:09
yes, or you need to pour dozens into the system02:07:11
trillions What is this also possible but02:07:14
suddenly then we'll be back quickly but if not02:07:16
there will be the strongest such infusions and02:07:18
the most powerful devaluation of inflation in the world then02:07:22
we can take years to reach these marks02:07:26
decades somehow strange as it is02:07:29
not strange and again where will it be but02:07:31
we'll start with 3,500 up these or with three02:07:34
or from two 500, or from two 500 then02:07:37
reach 4,800 I'm afraid It could be 10-2002:07:40
yo leave that's all02:07:42
so buying for 3,500 Well, okay02:07:45
the index goes to 3 and the Fed is escalating there02:07:48
on three rubles after the cutter craps02:07:51
for three thousand and I bought for 3,500 How are you02:07:53
Do you think how long will it take for the index?02:07:55
plus 15 do02:07:58
Well, a month at most, a month at most, that's it02:08:01
that's all I'm trying to explain02:08:05
I understand that it will be worse, but if02:08:08
it will be very bad Well, most likely she02:08:11
it happens and then it comes into play02:08:14
changing shoes02:08:16
I don't think everyone wants to be buried02:08:19
financial current system without thinking02:08:22
but she02:08:24
gets out of control02:08:26
Okay Moscow Exchange index02:08:29
Moscow Exchange Russia index all minutes 3002:08:33
now Russia always reminds you that there is02:08:36
time codes who are too lazy to look at the beginning02:08:38
video speak and likes By the way02:08:42
makes me scold then for it02:08:45
they deprive me of my salary even because of this when I02:08:48
I forgot to say I haven’t received my salary now02:08:50
said so02:08:54
[music]02:08:55
there are time codes yes always under the video02:09:00
Russian market Russian market02:09:05
I'm stocked up on everything02:09:11
I don't know if this is the right solution or not02:09:13
but I'll say right away that02:09:16
taking into account that the position which02:09:18
not everything was in the red, but the profitability02:09:20
there and the Russian portfolio since the beginning of the year02:09:23
plus one percent was + 18 + 1 in any02:09:26
case, the index fell by 50 this year02:09:29
me plus one in the Russian portfolio02:09:31
So probably02:09:33
Well, how did I make Alpha plus 51 Yes, how02:09:39
professionals say02:09:41
that is why02:09:46
[music]02:09:48
from a technical point of view, let's first02:09:50
so there is a level of 1800 to coins of the week02:09:54
1840 they went to you Yes, they almost tested it02:09:56
we tested it, pierced it, injected it in02:09:59
March almost got it pierced this week02:10:02
1840 just bought out OK Let's go straight away02:10:05
if you subtract future Gazprom dividends02:10:09
from stocks Well, from the index it will be necessary02:10:13
dividend gap of at least 22 maybe02:10:17
be 25 to 30 percent and at the most02:10:20
weighty piece of paper plus it will drag02:10:22
some others are basically without02:10:25
Gazprom dividend price index now02:10:27
1800 Well, October 12-13, basically02:10:33
if everything stays the same as it is now 1202:10:36
October and mom will be at around 1800 then02:10:39
formally I am02:10:41
I have a briefcase loaded at one hundred02:10:44
percent in Russian shares at02:10:45
at the 1800 mark there is no Gazprom in it02:10:48
that's the layout that's how it is yes02:10:51
if you take garlic, that's 180002:10:54
now 1950 Let him, but I say it again02:10:56
without Gazprom dividends 1800 price02:10:58
really index02:11:00
By the way, Novatek will also report there02:11:02
45 rubles is still almost there 5-602:11:05
percent dividends approved at So02:11:08
I have but I think it’s better Gazprom02:11:10
Okay 180002:11:15
Well, these are the marks of Sorry, 7, 200702:11:20
and level of support Although about the level02:11:23
Of course, there isn’t much support available right now02:11:25
there are two purposes left to rant02:11:30
We still have 2 technical goals:02:11:33
1500 Yes this is the most important level02:11:36
formed 12 13 14 years this one02:11:39
trading my beloved Here then I02:11:43
lost We all love trading smoothly02:11:46
here is 1500 level 1800 at 1500 30002:11:51
points02:11:52
Well, they don’t scare me. Well, honestly, they don’t scare me if I02:11:58
doesn’t scare me Well, the global trend is within the framework02:12:02
of everything historical within the whole02:12:04
Moscow Exchange index history02:12:05
global trend is about 1200 this is02:12:08
the final goal is to fall here of course02:12:11
It will be unpleasant, of course, in the moment02:12:15
It won't be that unpleasant from the drawdown02:12:18
it will be unpleasant that damn there is no cache and02:12:21
you just bought it, there are price tags where02:12:24
the index wouldn't go lower but the price tags02:12:27
1800 if we even 500 1400 1800 but we02:12:32
we'll see Well, at the slightest favorable02:12:34
Of course we will see scenarios too02:12:38
they ask how long it will take02:12:40
to restore the index in general now02:12:42
current marks Well, look if at least02:12:45
some02:12:46
positive02:12:48
[music]02:12:53
here if if if if damn02:12:58
how to hint like that and say damn02:13:02
Stop laughing there. Damn, I even have you here02:13:05
I hear02:13:07
to say yes and no02:13:11
how much will it go02:13:14
years decades02:13:17
the years go by02:13:23
Of course I have a question, we'll look again02:13:25
Moscow Exchange index is an index02:13:27
candy wrappers of course Key question How much02:13:30
will cost candy wrappers I mean rubles yes02:13:35
if the ruble is 200 or 300 then we02:13:40
It’s clear we can get there in a year, maybe02:13:42
in a month Well, by the way, this is another one02:13:45
moment based on which logic I02:13:48
loaded This is a very important point02:13:52
now we'll get to it too02:13:55
here is Geopolitics of course02:13:59
based on what just happened02:14:06
I’ll come up with a phrase by putting a puzzle in my head and02:14:10
I'll give it away02:14:14
a clash with NATO will no longer be good02:14:17
This is the worst scenario the world can face02:14:19
won't work How it ends Everything is clear02:14:21
so here you can relax the buns02:14:23
already a plus02:14:25
to confront the long which us02:14:28
forces you to take a long time Yes, this is the best02:14:30
the layout for America is the coolest for her02:14:33
this is an eternal military escalation, eternal on02:14:37
border with Russia to fight on someone else's02:14:39
territory with other people's weapons, not on our own02:14:41
territory is a gift from heaven for her02:14:44
what she always tries all her life and02:14:46
do Therefore, the greater the conflict, the02:14:48
for her it is better she weakens both Russia and02:14:51
Europe is also sponsored by weapons and all this02:14:54
not on your territory this is the best thing02:14:56
this is what they want so it’s clear that02:14:58
NATO won’t help, that’s all clear02:15:02
Do we want this long-term yes02:15:07
escalation yes for a year for two by three No not02:15:11
we want02:15:12
will it be possible to raise the stakes to complete02:15:15
conflict faster02:15:17
not sure unfortunately not sure02:15:21
the inserts will be raised but we are not sure02:15:24
there is a clear example of Israel and02:15:27
Gaza Strip Listen there every month02:15:31
rockets there rocket here there in Israel02:15:33
they know each other and how do you live there?02:15:35
every day rockets arrive02:15:38
it just sucks at night bang bang02:15:41
everyone is used to it, everyone is used to it and they live and not02:15:45
the first year the economy has been living for many years02:15:49
banks are developing and functioning02:15:51
stock indices are rising02:15:53
It would seem like they're [ __ ] rockets02:15:56
got used to it every week02:16:00
that's why now Yes is in everyone's heads02:16:02
It’s clear what’s going on with me too02:16:05
Yes, I don’t need it, it’s all the same there02:16:08
there is fear, that's why I buy it because02:16:11
now the fear is a fear that I don't have02:16:13
it was probably since 200802:16:17
remember 14 year yes02:16:20
referendum in Crimea02:16:22
market crash02:16:24
Yes02:16:27
there seemed to be panic too and everyone was thinking02:16:29
what will the consequences be? Well, nothing will happen02:16:33
forgot about a week after two they started growing02:16:35
then generally from there 14 years after02:16:37
devaluation of the ruble in general02:16:38
long-term trend began 8 years ago02:16:42
and that's all02:16:44
That's why02:16:45
if the main escalation escalates with02:16:49
NATO will not be Well unfortunately Yes I say02:16:52
I feel sorry for people Yes, that's understandable Well that's it02:16:57
can last for years in a month02:17:00
we'll get used to it in two02:17:03
there will always be about one percent there02:17:05
mobilized the population to attend here02:17:08
just like in Israel, plus or minus everything that02:17:10
everything is very similar to Israel. That is, this02:17:12
this is what America needs but we don’t need02:17:15
and this but I don’t see it in the foreseeable yet02:17:19
perspective even taking into account the rise02:17:21
rates Yes chances for the negotiation process02:17:25
I don't see that's why there is hope that02:17:28
will just be given from time to time02:17:31
offensives will be played through02:17:33
a month in an hour or three we'll probably go to02:17:35
we'll get used to it, it will be less in the future02:17:37
heads settle Well, unfortunately, yes02:17:40
how ska looks at first uncertainty02:17:42
then they [ __ ] their pants then on the street02:17:44
you're afraid to go out, I remember I'm the glove02:17:46
I went to the store but am I an idiot or not?02:17:49
I don't know if he exists or not02:17:50
no one knows yet, no one has seen him, but02:17:52
wearing gloves and masks02:17:54
then I would walk around without gloves now02:17:57
Well, is there already a Fifth Wave or a Seventh?02:18:00
I don’t know, but you’ll get over it, you’ll get over it02:18:02
there and so on well02:18:05
a person gets used to everything02:18:07
That's what I'm talking about, and the economy02:18:11
and adapts and so on That is, on02:18:14
crushed02:18:15
sanctions02:18:17
new ones that are already serious, as we already understand02:18:20
even the stock exchange is ready to switch off for sex02:18:23
Nenka prices for RD to Swift shutdown we02:18:26
already ready, but don’t even use them02:18:28
because they don't do any good Well friends02:18:31
Weather does not add friends to the list02:18:34
they play that is02:18:36
in this regard, you can’t really crush it anymore02:18:40
that the economy will go back on track02:18:44
military-industrial yes Everything will be02:18:46
delivered Well wait As it shows02:18:50
history is not always bad, that's if02:18:53
the defense budget is gigantic Yes02:18:56
all the factories work here02:18:58
production for all this is also employment02:19:01
these are people, these are salaries, these are subsidies02:19:04
subsidies, the question is just enough money02:19:08
is there enough for all this And how much is enough But this02:19:11
partly supports the economy Here02:19:13
don't forget either02:19:15
It's just clear Here's America on Friday02:19:18
approved again02:19:19
assistance plan02:19:21
Ukraine for 13 billion dollars where again02:19:24
there are 4 billion for the military service Well, that is, we02:19:28
We understand everything perfectly well, for them it’s all02:19:30
cool cut defense budget produce02:19:32
orders new new report dispose02:19:34
it's all cool and let it be for them02:19:37
the best Let it last forever is not necessary02:19:40
America doesn't need one of the parties02:19:42
won they need this eternal clash02:19:44
All02:19:45
we don't need we don't want we Can we02:19:49
do something to change taking into account02:19:51
I don't think there are any recent events02:19:54
something doesn't seem like no we'll be somewhere02:19:57
win somewhere lose it's all on02:19:59
a year or two for now02:20:02
perhaps such a position will be taken that02:20:05
it’s easier now to come to an agreement with the current ones02:20:08
it's impossible for politicians to make it easier02:20:10
wait for the political regime to change02:20:14
in America it's possible to pull02:20:17
This choice is also possible through02:20:20
six months We'll get used to everything by now02:20:23
and all that’s left to last is a year and a half02:20:26
maybe the republicans will come there02:20:28
Zelensky may be removed. Well, I don’t know.02:20:31
I don’t want to. Well, it’s just easier to wait for new ones02:20:33
people with whom it is different again02:20:36
negotiate that's all02:20:38
all That's it, it's time levels are clear yet02:20:41
if you buy shares now you are buying02:20:43
With a ratio of almost 1000 180002:20:46
without Gazprom dividends, what can we say?02:20:49
about RTS02:20:51
Well, here's the riddle, well, we've reached 1000 again02:20:55
Okay, we were waiting for a thousand refund, we got here02:20:58
there is no understanding at all, that is, well02:21:02
here the price should be like 50002:21:05
at least on technology and fundamentals Here02:21:09
Well, at X-hour and the peak of panic there, we can02:21:13
and 200 300 here is of course the ratio02:21:17
catching something, it’s clear what’s better to catch02:21:19
Here we come to the main range02:21:22
this is the whole story RTS index Yes range02:21:25
500 thousand is the range from which02:21:29
the index is always after a year There and so on02:21:32
started to recover, here it is highlighted02:21:35
this range, that is, buy in it02:21:39
it is necessary, it is not possible, but it is necessary in it and02:21:42
need to02:21:45
Well, that's all there is to say02:21:48
The lower to the lower limit the more02:21:52
delicious good prices the more profitable Well02:21:55
everyone Now were now We're just standing02:21:57
on it basically a thousand on it too02:21:59
good marks, well we can easily get 50002:22:02
see you here again if possible02:22:05
devaluation of the ruble if I'm talking about it now02:22:08
I'll tell you too02:22:10
then of course we can fly here but02:22:13
devaluation will be supported by the stock market Yes02:22:17
because actively mined in rubles02:22:19
Yes, accordingly they will too02:22:20
overestimate therefore the index will fall out02:22:22
up and here there will be a squeeze at the moment02:22:25
down strong maybe 30 to 20 to02:22:27
40 percent yes but due to the rise02:22:29
we again see the index above a thousand through02:22:31
for some time02:22:33
I hope it's clear02:22:38
rgbi index Well gang While signaling02:22:42
there is nothing good, that is, distant02:22:44
the end fell and fell according to the results02:22:46
weeks too02:22:48
there is uncertainty we are under02:22:50
zone 130, nothing good here yet02:22:52
no signals yet02:22:55
I think that distant bonds may02:22:58
the price is still going to sag, it’s clear that it’s nothing02:23:01
lowering interest rates in Russia02:23:03
There is no need to say more, the cycle is completed and02:23:06
point ahead there will be rate increases02:23:09
sooner or later Yes I will next year02:23:12
rate hike cycle will begin02:23:14
hopelessness once again we will have to02:23:16
borrow attract at more profitable02:23:18
under such conditions, the Ministry of Finance does not particularly02:23:21
will take everything here as it were I understand plus I02:23:24
I don't think so02:23:28
Therefore, if you want the most reliable02:23:30
asset or deposit or respectively02:23:32
short just federal law one-year two-year plan but02:23:34
they will be a plus or minus in price, well, just02:23:36
a year or two, or three at the most, just sit and02:23:39
here under I don’t know there’s an eighth02:23:41
yield conditionally Yes there are 11 12 there02:23:44
maybe 13-15 ten year olds but but not02:23:48
price may decline That is, if02:23:50
there will be some kind of sale Well, closer to02:23:53
20 if the spirit suddenly appears02:23:56
Well, I guess you can drop by. That's all.02:23:59
taking into account the fact that Russia has a national debt02:24:02
small ratio02:24:04
[music]02:24:06
risks of default can be forgotten for now02:24:09
that's why At least on the horizon02:24:11
several years, three or four for sure02:24:14
about the ruble02:24:16
my back is already damn old, not a damn thing02:24:19
joy02:24:24
with the Chinese economy about the Hong Kong yuan02:24:26
dollar02:24:29
yuan02:24:32
this week did you see on friday that02:24:34
what happened with currencies Yes when02:24:39
will inflate that they are now leading to the NCC02:24:42
sanctions on the exchange infrastructure Well02:24:45
Of course dollars would be exchange trading02:24:47
dollar would be suspended from02:24:50
Monday if NCC got on the SD list02:24:53
how strange it is from Europe02:24:54
America Although I think for a start He02:24:57
just has to get in from the European side02:25:00
And only then02:25:01
it would be a signal that is, it should02:25:05
receive intermediate signal first02:25:06
America is always like this02:25:09
extraordinary measures come a little later02:25:11
there than the Europeans so first02:25:13
finds Europe completely there02:25:15
suspend currency trading here at02:25:18
Russia is European and America is watching02:25:20
then only America, so be afraid02:25:23
Of course, about dollars, two hours have passed02:25:25
fifty let's five02:25:30
that's it. Who needs something to eat and drink, go02:25:33
We continue02:25:37
if if02:25:43
at the same time, dollars and euros are unlikely02:25:45
there will be such a blow Well, that's what I'm talking about02:25:47
I mean that's why02:25:52
But if the euro is for sure then get ready for02:25:56
the dollar has now passed Okay no02:25:58
there are no sanctions, but the fact itself is on Friday02:26:00
saw how they were just selling out02:26:03
electronic money Yes, exactly electronic02:26:06
money yes The exchange rate fell by 78 percent02:26:10
moment in a matter of hours two three just02:26:13
panic started panic in people yes A02:26:16
What if I don’t watch on Monday and won’t be able to02:26:19
pick up these electronic dollars and euros02:26:21
Well really02:26:22
everything was calm with the yuan it didn’t even grow02:26:26
Yes at this moment02:26:28
[music]02:26:30
that's why I switched to yuan a long time ago and everyone02:26:33
spoke while the entire electronic cache is in02:26:36
RMB electronic money is cash02:26:38
if it's cash then it's dollars02:26:41
Buy in Moscow without problems, here's the rate 7002:26:44
Well, somewhere even 68 and 67 and 66 even at02:26:49
there was cash somewhere this week02:26:50
You can buy it at exchange offices like this02:26:54
sold here electronic Yes video02:26:57
Chinese yuan because NCC sanctions02:27:02
from Europe and America there is no way02:27:04
touch02:27:05
but again we need dollars Of course02:27:08
now not everyone, but someone needs it for02:27:10
trading on the American stock market02:27:12
American assets02:27:15
so the dollar as a whole will have to be kept02:27:17
because convert pay02:27:19
commission Well, as an option, when America02:27:21
the network can go in yuan then it won’t work02:27:23
exchanged it for a dollar and bought an American one02:27:25
shares if you are an investor Well okay Well02:27:27
you can give 05 there for 6 percent for02:27:31
conversion is okay, but02:27:33
sit quietly so as not to freeze Well,02:27:35
anyway, let's do it again Who doesn't02:27:37
understands how the stock market works02:27:39
infrastructure02:27:42
let’s say if sanctions were introduced, well, okay02:27:45
Our stock trading has been suspended02:27:47
We have always had euros and dollars02:27:52
it will be outside the stock market as it is now02:27:54
yes it functions there passes02:27:57
transactions It will continue to function02:28:00
just access to the live market in the sky02:28:02
ordinary physicists No, well, some have02:28:05
Individuals can also be given access Well02:28:08
it is clear that the mass consumer of services02:28:12
he doesn’t have financial access there02:28:15
but in any case, through the order Yes there02:28:18
broker, I don’t know how they’ll set it up there, but02:28:19
sell these dollars or even buy02:28:22
dollars will still be possible through outside02:28:26
stock market How to calculate the rate when02:28:29
there will be no more stock market02:28:31
set by the Central Bank based on02:28:33
from cross rates Yes through the ruble yuan02:28:37
through there Turkish lira through there well 5-702:28:40
currencies are taken accordingly and molded from them02:28:42
basket odds Well, they calculate02:28:45
How much is the hypothetical exchange rate? We are02:28:47
we know how much yuan to dollar we are naughty02:28:49
we buy this yuan for rubles Well02:28:51
recalculate how much accordingly02:28:53
now the dollar is worth the ruble Elementary02:28:56
that is, nothing here is banal02:28:58
mathematics and accordingly02:29:00
The central bank will take this course02:29:01
announce daily fix on02:29:05
all day and once a day Probably he02:29:08
will just change once a day more than once02:29:10
per minute once a day will change in this02:29:12
the whole point is because broadcast02:29:15
there is no such infrastructure yet, although02:29:18
they can come up with it, well, because it’s not necessary02:29:20
be afraid that02:29:21
electronic money will be frozen forever and02:29:24
you won't do anything with them, no, outside02:29:28
stock market How it functioned02:29:29
will function That's all in principle02:29:30
Pir has already announced this. Well, the exchange And02:29:34
The Central Bank has already taken all this into account long ago and also02:29:37
prepared, so don't go here directly02:29:39
panic panic that's why I'm in euros02:29:42
I hope no one has been sitting for a long time02:29:43
warned you no longer need to sit in euros and02:29:46
in pounds euros They're better than him Well, if02:29:50
we need dollars, some of us need them02:29:51
Of course you have to hold them Well, like this02:29:54
that's why even if there is a blocking02:29:57
sometime in a month or three Well, y'all02:30:00
you can still sell American02:30:01
securities This has nothing to do with it02:30:04
American securities from NSD02:30:07
in my opinion, the St. Petersburg stock exchange is all02:30:09
transferred to other depositories scattered02:30:11
they are there therefore sanctions02:30:13
St. Petersburg stock exchange how to affect it at all02:30:16
must now Yes, no currency, no it’s not there02:30:20
money is no longer stored in the NCC at NSD02:30:23
assets were transferred to other depositories02:30:25
they also seemed to be prepared there, so02:30:28
you can sell shares on cashme02:30:31
exchange for electronic money for02:30:33
electronic money Can be purchased again02:30:34
but to output conditionally and change them02:30:37
for rubles simply through the over-the-counter market and02:30:39
you can also do it later brokers simply02:30:40
they will explain how everything is here02:30:43
this is how these will function but02:30:47
will be if yes someday there will be sanctions Yes02:30:51
although the plus of the blow to the system on the economy02:30:54
there is no benefit from this, that is, I don’t02:30:57
I understand the logic of these sanctions Well, nothing02:31:00
They won’t do much to us Yes02:31:03
complicate calculations and purchases a little and02:31:07
etc there is no impact therefore02:31:11
economics as such will complicate02:31:16
some technical processes That's all02:31:18
but again outside the exchange market can02:31:20
exist as long as there is access02:31:25
to the global market02:31:27
global market access02:31:31
we will have to wait until Russia02:31:34
did not turn off the color, then all If at least one02:31:37
bank Well, in particular Gazprombank02:31:39
will remain connected figure Well essentially02:31:41
everything is off the exchange on it and the market will close02:31:44
will be closed on it That is, how02:31:46
the main such broker will be the dealer02:31:48
conditionally02:31:49
So the calculations will be conditionally made through him and02:31:52
go all out stock exchanges here02:31:55
completely disable including even02:31:59
Gazprombank from Swift but hypothetically02:32:01
Everything is possible in this world Well then the question is02:32:03
How will we be paid for everything we do?02:32:07
after all, we still sell no way then we don’t02:32:11
we'll sell nothing Well, that's why02:32:13
it is not possible to disable it yet02:32:15
that's all so I hope you all have logic02:32:19
understood, even if electronic if02:32:22
stock trading will be presented02:32:23
not a stock exchange here we are yet02:32:25
Holy Gazprombank is connected here outside02:32:29
the beige market will function here02:32:30
but I don't understand why anyone still02:32:34
speculates and trades there02:32:36
electronic currency euros dollars is02:32:40
okay it's God bless him you want it02:32:42
keep holding although you understand all the risks02:32:44
Well, here's what you need to remember: Yeah, well02:32:47
Someday there will be a new package of sanctions Yes02:32:49
maybe in a month they will be long02:32:51
they will still be there for a long time there will be lists02:32:53
then the names are simply all citizens of Russia02:32:56
starting with the letter a add a new list all02:32:59
prohibited from traveling abroad then starting with the letter B Well, how about it?02:33:02
they still have at least 33 months02:33:05
It's easier, it's easier to do this than they do02:33:08
I'm just saving time in Europe and America02:33:11
Sometimes, by the way, it’s a shame, but why is there02:33:13
you don’t know all sorts of things out there anymore02:33:17
close relatives of the head of the Central Bank are already there02:33:20
blacklisted but doesn't include me02:33:22
I'm offended, bring me in too, I want it too02:33:25
be02:33:26
I also contribute to our sustainable way of life02:33:30
and in the development of Russian financial02:33:32
industry, I want to be blacklisted too02:33:38
okay okay02:33:43
What to consider02:33:46
speculators in the future If ever02:33:49
suddenly these conversations loom again if02:33:51
will be suspended someday02:33:54
dollar trading will be suspended02:33:56
trading by all outside all exchange02:34:00
instruments taking into account the calculation of dollars02:34:03
We have a lot of currency instruments index02:34:06
RTS and futures on the RTS index are foreign exchange02:34:08
instrument No this is a foreign exchange instrument02:34:10
Gold is a currency instrument therefore02:34:13
Richechka brandik and all other futures02:34:16
trading will be suspended forever02:34:19
money you won't lose it's all contracts02:34:22
settlement brokers you all Calm down02:34:25
calculated Based on the last closing price02:34:26
no problems here yes02:34:29
That's with risks02:34:31
Well, in theory it's simple02:34:33
Well, if the ruble dollar exchange rate is no longer02:34:38
the exchange will be installed here from02:34:40
The Central Bank through other rates02:34:43
these tools produce tension02:34:46
on all currency assets just in02:34:48
Russia will cease to exist forever02:34:50
or not, I don’t know, but they won’t be there02:34:54
But here they are afraid of losing money02:34:57
Well, you just see, they’re just panicky02:34:59
What distortions may occur in the next02:35:01
once again a new package looms02:35:03
sanctions Well, once again it’s possible under this02:35:05
distribution to get there and what a moment02:35:08
dollar euro the devil will break his leg and 50 A02:35:11
suddenly you will see 40. Everyone is just afraid02:35:13
Why Yes, why did some people panic?02:35:15
because the game client asks me too02:35:18
you but why don’t they panic what they are selling02:35:20
futures for dollar/ruble After all, I didn’t02:35:23
there is a stock exchange, I will explain, they are afraid of something else02:35:26
you will give him money Let's imagine02:35:28
freezing rate is set now02:35:31
central bank02:35:33
banks will install internal02:35:35
course In the current situation but also just people02:35:38
they are afraid that the Central Bank is just some kind of internal02:35:41
the rate will be set taking into account risks02:35:43
a little far from a fair price then02:35:45
yes Okay we see closing at 50 well02:35:48
let's hypothetically panic or02:35:49
45 and then some kind of conversion rate02:35:52
c will officially set 40 Well, let's say02:35:56
Well, that's how you're afraid02:36:02
that's why anything Okay speaking of02:36:08
it’s better to sit in Jonah, especially now02:36:10
good point02:36:14
tell me what will happen to the receipts02:36:16
VKontakte in case of blocking of NSD and NCC02:36:20
[music]02:36:22
there is no need to be afraid of blocking02:36:24
end if you sit drinking02:36:26
VKontakte here you have to be a little afraid02:36:28
others02:36:32
events Well, I discussed this topic with me02:36:35
Now I’ll show you my portfolio on VKontakte02:36:38
I'm in third place by volume02:36:40
Yes, you can see receipts dialed Yes02:36:44
local promotions that are not here02:36:47
Listen, if there are problems there again02:36:51
milkmaids converted you once02:36:53
converted that's why it will be here02:36:55
the same thing well okay But if there02:36:58
will impose there will have to be changed completely02:37:00
someone will change jurisdiction It will take02:37:02
for a while Well I bought part of the business02:37:05
in the company Yes, she followed me as she was02:37:08
secured piece of business I bought02:37:10
company shares bought which is just02:37:13
these are not pieces of paper that fly like that I02:37:15
bought part of the business02:37:18
if at some point I just can’t02:37:20
sell this part of the business to Nokia but it02:37:22
I'm assigned to me for as long as she is at the moment02:37:24
will be assessed due to force majeure02:37:26
as much as you like if the company breaks up02:37:28
nothing bad will happen, don't believe in02:37:30
two company because you can't02:37:32
now share to dispose of they will do02:37:34
I do everything possible so that the shares you dispose of02:37:36
a little later in just it will take like02:37:38
at least maybe a month maybe yes02:37:39
well, maximum three change jurisdiction02:37:42
issue local shares here on the stock exchange02:37:46
and convert just change the holes02:37:49
on on shares what's the problem who doesn't have it02:37:52
promotions Well, make a leaf on Moskovskaya02:37:54
exchange accordingly just on02:37:56
number of issued receipts and02:37:58
convert everyone, well, I'm the holes02:38:00
I’m telling you, I’m saving everything from Gazprom there02:38:03
this was converted to everyone here02:38:04
I don’t see any problems02:38:08
You can just be in the active for a while02:38:10
who simply won't bargain02:38:15
but that's not the ticket question, that's the question there02:38:18
shield months to redo everything so I02:38:23
I understand perfectly well there is such a risk, but I’m in02:38:26
I came across such a risk, I don’t see it02:38:29
technical point - everything that can be solved02:38:32
pretty simple02:38:34
regarding the ruble02:38:38
and yuan rates02:38:41
Well first of all02:38:44
if you choose02:38:47
ruble or currency02:38:51
I of course02:38:53
clear choice of currency02:38:56
if the question is Which is quieter? Well02:39:00
calmer on the Personal dollar Yes if02:39:02
electronic then yuan02:39:04
but in relation to the yuan, how would we02:39:07
I’ll say right away here 8 while we hold this02:39:10
important mark 8 in the ruble Yes, well02:39:15
breaking 10 to the top will open the way02:39:17
icon weakening of the ruble kicks the yuan itself02:39:21
this week 72 touched 7.2 already peaks02:39:26
broke through the Chinese Central Bank began02:39:29
go out with interventions two days in a row02:39:31
aggressive intervention; moreover, He is in02:39:35
Wednesday called all banks02:39:39
all banks in China prepare for more02:39:42
large-scale interventions to strengthen02:39:45
to contain and strengthen the Chinese02:39:48
this is a direct order from the Central Bank02:39:52
[music]02:39:57
that is, somewhere here is interesting02:40:02
they can interview they have a lot of money02:40:06
When will Europe have problems with Britain?02:40:09
with dollar funding Yes with foreign currency02:40:12
and they will run out of money for intervention02:40:15
China we know will not run out of China yet02:40:18
under 900 almost billion American02:40:21
treasuries that have a speed of 3002:40:22
billions per month at least They02:40:24
sell they have dollar cash02:40:27
this dollar cash is just going to be exchanged02:40:29
thus they support the Chinese02:40:32
exchange rate That is, they still have enough money02:40:34
interventions are through the roof again if02:40:37
If only China didn't have three asps like this02:40:41
the amount would be the amount in American02:40:43
treasuries 100 billion or less I would02:40:48
I probably didn't choose him02:40:50
because well again02:40:53
The Fed did not open the swap line to China and did not02:40:56
will open we understand this and even in02:40:58
twentieth year to all central banks02:41:01
bank in the world, the Fed, in my opinion, opened a line02:41:04
in a moment of panic, I didn’t open it to China. Therefore02:41:07
if China didn't have them02:41:10
a lot of dollars Yes, if only I understood that02:41:14
there aren’t a lot of dollars, but here’s what he can’t do02:41:16
stay the course and target it I would02:41:20
Of course I didn’t choose, I already stood here02:41:22
Got it somewhere at a not very good price Well02:41:24
as I explained, the conditions forced me to do this02:41:26
do this, well, I think he will come back and02:41:28
will return even lower Well, in a year02:41:31
sooner or later the Federal Reserve will begin and02:41:34
print and reduce the rate And here02:41:36
plus minus policy is normal under02:41:39
control the rate You can then a little02:41:41
lift even to strengthen them02:41:43
now they lowered it, you can raise it here02:41:45
because now the Chinese are lowering rates02:41:48
America boosts Chinese02:41:50
this is the Central Bank and the American are coming02:41:53
in opposite directions02:41:55
China weakens, lowers rates and gives02:41:58
American liquidity is tight and02:42:00
it rises so everything is the other way around these here and02:42:03
this has often happened in history therefore02:42:05
monetary policy to each other02:42:07
the opposite side enters here and into02:42:10
next year most likely monetary02:42:18
and probably next year too02:42:21
it turns out that the Federal Reserve is most likely in02:42:24
some period of time will already begin02:42:27
reduce I don't believe that next year the Fed02:42:30
we won't start reducing the rate now02:42:32
go up to 4425 if there are any this year02:42:35
such conditions that of course he will say02:42:37
we're going down02:42:38
at this time China Maybe it’s even the other way around02:42:40
raise it a little or leave it02:42:43
will be enough to reverse course02:42:44
this is with an eye to the year, of course I'm all02:42:47
I still think they will be Chinese02:42:48
strengthen against the dollar02:42:50
the dollar is at an all-time high here02:42:53
maximum 18 19 years old so money for02:42:57
there is Chinese intervention, there is liquidity, there is02:42:59
another 900 billion at least American02:43:01
fats they exchange them for dollars but02:43:03
dollars can be used for02:43:04
interventions all therefore even taking into account02:43:07
that the Fed never reaches the 100 line02:43:10
to a Chinese bank Well, China for now has money02:43:12
there is something to be afraid of when you stay02:43:15
100 billion is through02:43:17
5 if at a rate of 30 billion per month this is02:43:22
360 billion coins 360 billion in02:43:25
in a month in two years yes we can start02:43:28
It's better to panic in Chinese I don't sit02:43:29
that is, just like that, damn something yes02:43:33
see how it is02:43:35
First you can search loudly later02:43:37
do the math and think no no long term02:43:39
They may be Chinese and I don’t believe it, well02:43:42
for the next year or two I still believed in02:43:44
Next year two I believe in two years02:43:46
We'll see how much they have left02:43:49
in American zvr Well, now the conclusion02:43:55
Why is it still a ruble?02:43:58
worse than currency02:44:00
Yes, we understand the stalemate02:44:03
A central bank that cannot02:44:04
target and be present02:44:05
target courses present on02:44:07
in the foreign exchange market he cannot buy02:44:09
currency is also the dollar. Therefore, with02:44:12
Russian interventions cannot02:44:13
Therefore the dollar is due to distortion02:44:17
in Trade turnover Yes, we have imports there02:44:20
God forbid billions 17 18 exports02:44:22
the giant ruble is doomed to last forever02:44:25
strengthening with small occasional rebounds02:44:28
nothing can be done about it02:44:31
but I think it will02:44:34
everything will have to be a little different02:44:38
will buy all these yuan02:44:41
to target courses you make sense02:44:43
no targeting Well, okay through the yuan02:44:46
it's a risk even through I won't buy it but02:44:49
weaken by 20 cross rates Good long02:44:51
exporters will come out to relax by 2002:44:53
they'll start selling, what difference will it make?02:44:55
back, that is, that’s why there’s no comparison02:44:57
introduces the budget rule because02:44:59
it won't work02:45:01
if it works it won't last long02:45:04
they probably realized the mistake02:45:06
I'm telling you02:45:10
taking into account02:45:13
confused about what02:45:15
the budget is confusing02:45:18
the budget situation is confusing02:45:19
presented for the next couple of years Well02:45:22
let's say year 23 and income part 2602:45:25
expenditure 29 trillion if the budget02:45:28
read the mess a lot is classified a lot is not02:45:31
taken into account but I'm afraid It was the budget02:45:33
Yes, he was, in principle, laid out02:45:35
before02:45:37
in others in different settings02:45:41
those introductory notes that were received02:45:44
and water that will flow into02:45:47
of course, were not particularly taken into account in the budget02:45:49
in the expenditure side, the budget was formed02:45:51
maybe two or three months ago a little02:45:53
under other criteria criteria that02:45:55
not really relevant now, I didn’t believe it02:45:58
into the 3 trillion hole02:46:02
I think it will be twice as big02:46:06
about 602:46:11
6 it will be difficult to block even through02:46:14
dividends will pump out a trillion trillion there02:46:17
with kopecks02:46:19
It will be difficult for the Ministry of Finance to occupy the market02:46:22
money even if they raise the rate they02:46:25
will increase the rate so that it is higher so that02:46:28
could borrow02:46:30
even distributing money in repo to banks so that02:46:33
banks participated in02:46:35
auctions of the Ministry of Finance Well, so be it, well02:46:38
you can borrow a trillion at a higher price02:46:41
take a bet Well two it’s a little hard02:46:45
pressing 6 to take 45 is unrealistic02:46:50
unrealistic I understand the situation perfectly well02:46:54
which to plan something now02:46:59
the current situation is generally very02:47:02
it's difficult that's why02:47:05
Well, we got the numbers. Well, here they are02:47:08
peers Yes, adjusted for some02:47:14
aquatic Well, the aquatic ones changed very quickly02:47:17
even in the last two three weeks I02:47:19
I'm more than sure they're even close02:47:20
didn’t study the budget That is, if the income02:47:23
part is simply also a profitable part02:47:26
taken into account based on the current02:47:27
conditions that are small and medium-sized businesses02:47:29
big companies will make money02:47:30
approximately the same What if not so02:47:33
what if it's less?02:47:35
A02:47:38
Well, here’s the consumable part, as we understand it02:47:41
she is already02:47:43
Well, at least there's a trillion plus02:47:46
you can already increase it, that is, the deficit02:47:48
no longer 3 A4 already on the mend made02:47:51
that 09 is not 05 0609 Most likely it will be02:47:55
KVP budget deficit Well, once again amendments02:47:57
there will be many more Let it be better right away02:48:00
multiply by two, that is, not 3 4 And I02:48:03
I say instead of 36 it will be Why am I driving02:48:06
For the life of me I can’t see02:48:11
another way02:48:13
How to start a printing press02:48:17
this is a procedure02:48:21
this is a way out and the only way out in fact02:48:23
in the current situation it is being discussed02:48:27
Of course the Central Bank is being discussed02:48:28
has been discussed for a long time, it has its own02:48:31
pros their cons they couldn’t do it before02:48:32
run for obvious reasons high02:48:34
there was inflation Therefore, there is no inflation yet02:48:36
will drop to Well, speak on the machine02:48:39
of course you can't02:48:40
inflation tide normal more or less printed02:48:43
Of course we will be driven away by inflation again02:48:45
in a course they will retell the meaning such that the course02:48:48
just rearrange it maybe just for02:48:50
weekend was 6002:48:53
90 100 That's all, no one will run02:48:57
panic buy sweep away everything02:49:00
agree, taking into account the fall in imports in02:49:03
10 times 200 billion dollars to 2002:49:06
let's say imports fell 10 times to 1802:49:09
import from the fact that even in price it02:49:11
strong inflation will no longer accelerate because02:49:13
what is its share in the economy02:49:16
and that’s why the inflation jump there is 50 No02:49:20
it won't, ok, well, it will jump to 10 and02:49:23
then it will drop back to 5. So what?02:49:25
Therefore, from the point of view of inflation, this is already02:49:28
you can do it02:49:30
I don't see any other options02:49:33
Madam, of course, once again on this topic even02:49:37
there were some lifts I remember02:49:39
interesting dialogues discussions I don’t remember02:49:41
than her02:49:42
I honestly don’t remember the abstracts02:49:46
the camp that says this is necessary this is02:49:50
It’s easier to do and it’s necessary. There’s a camp02:49:52
who are still opponents of this method but02:49:55
I02:49:57
I'm 99 percent sure that this is02:50:00
the only way out02:50:02
so it will happen and it won't02:50:04
smoothly There is no point in smoothly panic02:50:07
make something worse and make someone else worse02:50:09
feed the speculators then it will be02:50:11
just a rearrangement02:50:12
most likely like this02:50:15
and it's ok02:50:17
and it's ok course there, I'll just take it there02:50:21
all 100 rubles per dollar are all conditional02:50:24
conditionally02:50:25
when I don’t know yes that is02:50:28
December March I don’t know, I just understand that02:50:34
debit will connect with credit Yes, just not02:50:37
The numbers that we have now fit02:50:39
they are probably wrong it seems02:50:42
very much doubled therefore others02:50:44
I don't see any options, that's all and nothing02:50:48
catastrophic given the current government policy02:50:51
KVP for Russia to carry out the mission yes02:50:56
such a pretty scale is nothing02:50:58
critical I don't see02:51:01
there is when before, well there is, I understand my own02:51:05
regulations and rules of central banks02:51:08
Yes, which not everyone is allowed to do02:51:13
see everyone there is an opportunity for money there02:51:14
there are also rules established in02:51:17
world, but now we have these world rules02:51:21
no longer a decree so how can we02:51:24
choose absolutely You want and no one for you02:51:27
won't even say something why are you doing this02:51:29
you don't give a damn now02:51:31
the situation is so bad that I want it every now and then02:51:35
and that's why the time has come and Well,02:51:38
the stars aligned I think that's why we02:51:40
long-term Yes, if we take Horizon there02:51:43
cannot target the rate for a year02:51:46
straightening it out to no avail through a purchase02:51:48
the yuan has its own risks and it won’t last long02:51:51
everything will work out everything is clear the situation02:51:53
Expenses are getting worse Income is getting worse02:51:55
decreases therefore02:51:57
Ministry of Finance to cover the hole through placement02:52:00
OFZ without external players without external players02:52:02
borrowing is also impossible trillion02:52:05
I agree took one and a half to 2 hard for 302:52:09
4 5 No it will never take02:52:11
That's why02:52:13
answered the question and therefore based on this02:52:16
logic Yes including02:52:17
[music]02:52:20
buy shares that are also nominated02:52:24
in rubles and shares like everything physical Yes02:52:26
are also subject to the risk of overvaluation yes for02:52:30
market is of course also a big help02:52:33
there will be, that is, assets in rubles, of course02:52:35
for them it’s a growth driver, that’s all02:52:38
including when don't ask Just02:52:41
my thoughts out loud my reasoning based on02:52:44
from what's happening That's all I'm not02:52:46
I want to guess where the markets will be in a month02:52:48
in two in three I'm hypothetically on02:52:50
two Well I always look at 2-3 blocks02:52:54
forward Everything I always say is the last02:52:56
three years my bets my Disputes with02:52:59
by central banks with inflation02:53:01
bubbles with panic when everyone was selling I02:53:04
I say America will rewrite High by the end of the year02:53:07
They also twisted my temples, I already drew02:53:08
pancakes and so on That is, we are everything that I am02:53:12
I always say this 2-3 quarters ahead02:53:15
All I see is what will happen02:53:18
will be in 3 quarters ahead in order to02:53:21
don't ask for a month02:53:23
it’s just that sometimes not everyone catches the move02:53:28
thoughts or am I overthinking that's all02:53:29
change shoes but everything changes That's why you02:53:32
adjusting I was sure of something02:53:33
before, but yesterday I could be sure of02:53:36
I'm not sure about this today. Well, well.02:53:37
everything has changed, what's the difference?02:53:40
with oil Okay everything is the last chart02:53:43
fast Russian market02:53:45
oil is the only asset left02:53:47
I’m still thinking about sorting out the gold there02:53:49
which will unfold along with the index again02:53:52
we’ll see in 2-3 quarters in a row02:53:54
gold above DX They're all for02:53:56
in a week or two I don’t know if he’s there02:53:59
says that02:54:02
oil02:54:04
bounced back a little because we are there to02:54:06
80 already the road headed then02:54:08
bounced off the ceiling so far it seems02:54:11
it will be shorter here the meaning of this fifth02:54:14
dates for the next day meeting02:54:15
potatoes opek plus Well, we'll see as we go02:54:18
will be laid off someone will be laid off02:54:20
oil will support someone I understand02:54:23
recession in the world there is no demand ahead02:54:25
It's a cold season and there won't be enough gas02:54:29
use more damn fuel oil there02:54:31
product and so on there are some damn advantages02:54:34
and there are downsides here in general02:54:36
[music]02:54:41
in the world in terms of demand and supply in general02:54:45
oil prices don't have any effect I don't even02:54:47
this has been performed many times and in02:54:50
cities and there and on the stock exchange everywhere and even02:54:53
listen to the video here for those who don't know02:54:55
demand global demand global supply02:54:56
in the oil market it is 100 to 101 There02:54:59
million barrels per day difference of one02:55:02
percentage and it fluctuates but 1.302:55:05
but 1.5 or 0.8 that is the difference between02:55:08
demand supply is only 02 03%, and02:55:11
oil flies at 30 4002:55:13
50%. Well let's speak objectively02:55:16
listening to the market is certainly not ruled by demand and02:55:20
not global supply and demand which02:55:22
changing Now you won't see him 10002:55:25
at 111 the difference is just an offer in the world02:55:28
So there are minimal changes there, that’s why02:55:31
there are speculators here02:55:34
derivatives of the expectation of intervention there is what02:55:38
whatever so we know it's not in November02:55:41
in December and America will have a million02:55:43
barrels per day to purchase supplies and quickly02:55:45
only 5 next week insignificant02:55:48
the guardianship card will hint Or maybe because02:55:50
its a reduction in quotas that's all why02:55:52
Well, I don’t know if we’ll reach 80 or not, but I’m waiting02:55:55
100 and above02:55:57
still despite the recession02:56:00
Gazprom all on shares I don't have in02:56:03
portfolio02:56:04
not in portfolio dividends approved Good02:56:08
Okay 51 rubles 22 percent I don’t understand02:56:12
why is he still standing here I don't02:56:13
I understand the people who bought here02:56:15
and kept it even while expecting dividends02:56:18
I understand why you waited. Well, once again for02:56:21
me Gazprom price is the range02:56:22
100-150 But if I'm an optimist it's good02:56:27
on the calculator I will add up all the numbers and the current one02:56:29
situation and increased severance tax two more02:56:31
trillion 23 to 25 which02:56:33
pumps out and02:56:34
accidents all that happened was a drop in profits02:56:38
and everything else, well, if you add it all up and I02:56:42
optimist Well, okay, the price is 150 for him02:56:45
objective without dividends, that is, with02:56:48
taking into account dividends 200 if I'm realistic to him02:56:51
price 125,100 means including dividends02:56:54
it should now cost ok 17502:56:56
maximum02:57:00
that's all02:57:01
That's all, that's why even the divas announced02:57:05
that he grew up on this No he is minus 3.502:57:07
percent closed quite normal02:57:09
reaction because even here it's expensive02:57:11
after dividends by 50 rubles it will fall02:57:14
more than the amount of dividends02:57:15
so it was necessary to go out on the news about02:57:18
which is basically what I warned02:57:19
previous edition do not sit until the cutoff02:57:21
go on the news right away if they give it to you02:57:24
this opportunity is all after the cutoff but02:57:26
we don't know where he will be pigtails maybe02:57:28
be 190 notch and correct Or maybe 1702:57:30
we don't know maybe 2003 I don't know but I02:57:34
I know that after that02:57:36
dividend once again its fair price02:57:38
now it's about 12502:57:41
I don’t think that Gazprom has now02:57:43
the situation is better than in 15-16-17 I02:57:47
I think she’s worse now And with an aim02:57:49
for two years giant capex again02:57:52
additional increase in mineral extraction tax 5002:57:54
billion 2 trillion for almost two months02:57:57
in two years02:57:59
from a giant capix with an incomprehensible02:58:01
in general, future prospects, what’s there02:58:03
in the world there will be no idea why I should02:58:06
now it costs above 150 No, the price is 10002:58:08
150 all topic closed topic closed02:58:12
Absolutely after the cutoff we'll see here it is02:58:15
will be in this range 100-150 there and02:58:17
will stop where he will stay 120 130 140 10002:58:20
I don’t know Okay, I’ll show you everything in my portfolio02:58:23
red, well, red, under the open02:58:25
positions taking into account the beginning of the year This is me02:58:28
I went in again and picked up the ladder there and so on02:58:30
further -1302:58:33
so basically a briefcase plus one02:58:36
previously closed here not taken into account soon02:58:39
corrections will be taken into account for the entire time02:58:40
and old closed positions okay what02:58:42
we have02:58:44
not very good Maybe somewhere02:58:47
breakdown with some positions you are not02:58:49
agree, me too, but the meaning is so different02:58:53
stock02:58:55
will be worked out on different02:58:57
intervals of time agree that02:59:00
now they can Well, I don’t know the cases there02:59:03
neutral events02:59:05
Yes, to recoup some shares from02:59:08
which we are really talking about now02:59:10
business recovery, other stocks may02:59:13
win back02:59:14
strong Positivity that can come02:59:16
be from geopolitics the third action is purely02:59:18
fundamental ones that will play out02:59:20
when I don't know when the economy is about02:59:23
grow all company shares are different02:59:26
That's all so what will the scenario be02:59:29
through Quarter 2 it will be difficult to say whether02:59:33
inflation Will there be devaluation Will there be02:59:35
the conflict is frozen whether it grows therefore02:59:39
many different variables what will happen02:59:42
ruble here02:59:44
and so on what laws will be amended02:59:46
taxes02:59:48
There are a lot of dividends in different ones02:59:51
companies02:59:53
maybe I went too far, ok02:59:56
29 percent is the VTB financial sector02:59:59
with 18 percent 10 Sberbank VTB03:00:02
average 18 kopecks Although now it’s 15 yes God03:00:05
Well, I’m talking to him again at the beginning of the year03:00:07
portfolio plus one percent03:00:10
I show you what it is, how it is03:00:13
listen03:00:14
if you want, we'll see in a year03:00:19
maybe sooner in six months there Well03:00:22
at least I’m sharing what it is and03:00:25
following the strategy and my personal money03:00:28
here here03:00:33
VTB Well, let's just show the company03:00:36
let's just run straight through the schedule 2903:00:37
percent financial sector third03:00:39
position Yandex I see oh ugh VK I'm on03:00:43
she made so much money I sold it for03:00:44
350 and re-entered again at 410 Oh well03:00:49
30003:00:50
I'm sorry, 500 for 500 and kopecks03:00:53
sold the floor or partially eat I don’t remember But03:00:56
in short again on 410 Yandex completely03:00:59
sold again Well, according to Yandex03:01:01
current price Yandex I have vk 903:01:04
percent 2 next position a little03:01:07
less is Yandex almost 8 percent03:01:11
Now let's walk. Well, next comes Ozone03:01:14
slightly less share03:01:15
Of course the ozone is falling. Kick-ass too03:01:18
a company that's all cool and good03:01:21
operating profitability report03:01:22
next quarter should be the most03:01:24
chic and you should by the new end of the year03:01:27
by this December they should cost 200003:01:30
share03:01:31
but you see how everything has changed, that’s all03:01:36
everything that happened now03:01:38
mobilization everything this is of course this03:01:41
airwaves will hit demand But we didn’t know03:01:45
just don't need it now Yes I changed03:01:49
look at the company Of course03:01:51
if I said trendy that I am towards the New03:01:54
they've been waiting for two years now, I don't know, they're not waiting anymore03:01:57
two because demand will slow down everywhere03:02:00
everyone because there is uncertainty and03:02:03
people in times of uncertainty spend and03:02:05
will save and not spend and this03:02:07
I understand this will affect many businesses03:02:09
if there is anything new introductory03:02:11
receive Of course I will re-translate03:02:14
This is fine03:02:16
don't think about what you said 2 and you03:02:19
said two in December Well, what if damn 303:02:24
V03:02:26
that I too, that's how to scare me03:02:28
why are you anyway Gazprom 10 thousand and zones03:02:32
damn 2000 for the New Year No, of course the world03:02:36
changing We all adapt03:02:38
current situation but nevertheless03:02:41
business remains interesting and shares03:02:45
there is only room for expansion03:02:47
Yes period of falling demand Yes good03:02:49
You don’t have to wait for a report or forecasts, but03:02:52
do you want a period of company? Of course in terms of03:02:54
business development I hope behind that03:02:56
there is me, this is just one girl03:02:58
made provisions for the future made03:03:00
major investments spent are all done03:03:03
for me this is the main thing and what03:03:06
now there will be a slowdown in demand then03:03:08
Quarter 2 Well, to hell with it03:03:11
But you don't have to serve giant03:03:13
debts and a lot of money borrowing to spend03:03:14
Damn, what a disappointment here, ugh03:03:17
Crap03:03:18
damn deep in debt03:03:22
Okay VK VK Yandex Ozone I understand, that is03:03:27
almost equal share of 987 percent03:03:29
Novatek 703:03:33
[music]03:03:36
AFK system 737 is almost 7 percent bad03:03:40
position03:03:41
moex, well, there are small losses here, that is03:03:44
these are the most disastrous positions of course03:03:45
tifka03:03:47
Yandex is currently purchased there by novatek03:03:51
almost at zero with no one here03:03:53
small, that is, here is the growth index03:03:56
Moscow Exchange by five percent and03:03:57
this entire portfolio comes out as a plus at03:03:59
at the 2050 mark there will no longer be 003:04:02
minus 13 plus 5 this is where the stocks fly03:04:07
So I say it again There is no Gazprom here03:04:10
therefore formally the Moscow index03:04:12
the exchange is now 1.800 for me that’s why03:04:14
after the cutoff if he leaves without 180003:04:17
Gazprom for 2 at least this03:04:19
ten percent growth without Gazprom, yes03:04:22
there should be a green one here already03:04:24
so okay, well listen, this is a purchase for03:04:26
this week almost then something03:04:28
held it before03:04:31
Moscow Exchange Rostelecom Rosneft Well03:04:34
to hell with it Okay pure dividend [ __ ]03:04:36
Well, oil should still grow, so what?03:04:39
I bought it exactly this week for correction03:04:42
by 4.5 percent Positive Technologies up03:04:44
Well, I sorted the company out before03:04:48
IPO failed understandably but understandably03:04:52
the first such turbulence was hardDescription:
Большой прямой эфир о том, что происходит в мировой экономике и как это отразится на инвесторах. Василий Олейник рассказывает, что он делает с валютой и акциями на своих счетах. А также отвечает на вопросы подписчиков. 00:00 В ожидании Васи 01:53 О чем эфир 07:09 Важные новости, рынок долга Великобритании, фунт и замкнутый круг 33:43 Доллар, биткоин и ЕЦБ 47:41 Инфляция и долги Еврозоны 01:02:11 Евро, распад ЕС и теханализ по индексам 01:07:14 Рынок долга США, ипотека и общение с подписчиками 01:31:57 ФРС и ВВП США 01:43:11 Акции США и теханализ по индексам 02:09:00 Российский рынок, юань и что нужно учитывать спекулянтам 02:53:40 Нефть, Газпром, портфель Васи и банковский сектор 03:15:02 Акции российских компаний и ответы на вопросы подписчиков 👉 Наш канал на Rutube https://rutube.ru/channel/24151272/ 18+ Не является индивидуальной инвестиционной рекомендацией.
Preparing download options
* — If the video is playing in a new tab, go to it, then right-click on the video and select "Save video as..."
** — Link intended for online playback in specialized players
Questions about downloading video
How can I download "Что делать с валютой и акциями на счетах / Сможет ли мировая финансовая система выйти из тупика?" video?
http://unidownloader.com/ website is the best way to download a video or a separate audio track if you want to do without installing programs and extensions.
The UDL Helper extension is a convenient button that is seamlessly integrated into YouTube, Instagram and OK.ru sites for fast content download.
UDL Client program (for Windows) is the most powerful solution that supports more than 900 websites, social networks and video hosting sites, as well as any video quality that is available in the source.
UDL Lite is a really convenient way to access a website from your mobile device. With its help, you can easily download videos directly to your smartphone.
Which format of "Что делать с валютой и акциями на счетах / Сможет ли мировая финансовая система выйти из тупика?" video should I choose?
The best quality formats are FullHD (1080p), 2K (1440p), 4K (2160p) and 8K (4320p). The higher the resolution of your screen, the higher the video quality should be. However, there are other factors to consider: download speed, amount of free space, and device performance during playback.
Why does my computer freeze when loading a "Что делать с валютой и акциями на счетах / Сможет ли мировая финансовая система выйти из тупика?" video?
The browser/computer should not freeze completely! If this happens, please report it with a link to the video. Sometimes videos cannot be downloaded directly in a suitable format, so we have added the ability to convert the file to the desired format. In some cases, this process may actively use computer resources.
How can I download "Что делать с валютой и акциями на счетах / Сможет ли мировая финансовая система выйти из тупика?" video to my phone?
You can download a video to your smartphone using the website or the PWA application UDL Lite. It is also possible to send a download link via QR code using the UDL Helper extension.
How can I download an audio track (music) to MP3 "Что делать с валютой и акциями на счетах / Сможет ли мировая финансовая система выйти из тупика?"?
The most convenient way is to use the UDL Client program, which supports converting video to MP3 format. In some cases, MP3 can also be downloaded through the UDL Helper extension.
How can I save a frame from a video "Что делать с валютой и акциями на счетах / Сможет ли мировая финансовая система выйти из тупика?"?
This feature is available in the UDL Helper extension. Make sure that "Show the video snapshot button" is checked in the settings. A camera icon should appear in the lower right corner of the player to the left of the "Settings" icon. When you click on it, the current frame from the video will be saved to your computer in JPEG format.
What's the price of all this stuff?
It costs nothing. Our services are absolutely free for all users. There are no PRO subscriptions, no restrictions on the number or maximum length of downloaded videos.